燃料油： 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-08-22燃料油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 5 价差数据 库存数据 1、基本面：新加坡交易员表示，当前高硫燃料油在浮仓及固定储罐中存在供应过剩的情况。近几个月窗 口采购量巨大，但实际需求不足以消化全部库存，预计过剩状况将持续，供应压力也将延续一段时间；中 性 2、基差：新加坡高硫燃料油383.49美元/吨，基差为125元/吨，新加坡低硫燃料油为480.5美元/吨，基差 为94元/吨，现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：新加坡燃料油8月13日当周库存为2263.9万桶，增加189万桶；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方，20日线偏下；偏空 5、主力持仓：高硫主力持仓空单，空减，偏空； ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - This week, the high-sulfur cracking of Singapore 380cst rebounded and then weakened, the near-month spread fluctuated, and the EW spread fluctuated. The 9 - 10 spread weakened to $3.5/ton, the basis oscillated at a low level (-$4), and the FU01 internal - external spread weakened slightly to -$0.8. The 0.5 cracking of Singapore oscillated and weakened, the 9 - 10 spread weakened to $2.75/ton, and the LU11 internal - external spread oscillated at $9. [3][4] - This week, Singapore's onshore inventory decreased, but it was still not the highest in the same period of history. The floating storage decreased significantly month - on - month. Saudi Arabia's shipments decreased significantly, and the arrivals this week oscillated. UAE's shipments rebounded month - on - month, and net exports increased significantly. The onshore inventory in Fujairah, the Middle East, decreased, the floating storage of high - sulfur and low - sulfur increased significantly, the ARA residue inventory increased, and the US residue inventory decreased, showing a large inventory contradiction. [4] - The east - west divergence of high - sulfur fuel oil continued. In the heavy - oil pattern, the cracking of Singapore 380cst was the weakest, and the premium of heavy crude oil was the strongest. A two - way regression is expected in the future. This week, LU remained weak. The basis of the external MF0.5 weakened again and then oscillated. After the LU quota was issued, the internal - external spread oscillated. [4] - In the short term, pay attention to the opportunity of the high - sulfur 380 EW spread widening. Fundamentally, the supply of high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to increase, and the supply - demand pattern will weaken. [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data - From August 11 to August 15, 2025, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 decreased by $3.94, the price of Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 decreased by $0.58, the Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 decreased by $0.38, the Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1 increased by $3.43, the Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 decreased by $4.01, the LGO - Brent M1 increased by $1.46, and the Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 increased by $3.36. [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data - From August 11 to August 15, 2025, the price of Singapore 380cst M1 decreased by $0.95, the price of Singapore 180cst M1 decreased by $0.14, the price of Singapore VLSFO M1 increased by $0.20, the price of Singapore Gasoil M1 decreased by $0.59, the Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 decreased by $0.60, and the Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 increased by $4.57. [1][9] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data - From August 11 to August 15, 2025, the FOB 380cst price increased by $0.27, the FOB VLSFO price increased by $1.39, the 380 basis increased by $0.55, the high - sulfur internal - external spread increased by $0.1, and the low - sulfur internal - external spread increased by $1.4. [2] Domestic FU Data - From August 11 to August 15, 2025, the price of FU 01 decreased by 4, the price of FU 05 increased by 5, the price of FU 09 decreased by 9, the FU 01 - 05 spread decreased by 9, the FU 05 - 09 spread increased by 14, and the FU 09 - 01 spread decreased by 5. [2] Domestic LU Data - From August 11 to August 15, 2025, the price of LU 01 increased by 3, the price of LU 05 increased by 5, the price of LU 09 decreased by 6, the LU 01 - 05 spread decreased by 2, the LU 05 - 09 spread increased by 11, and the LU 09 - 01 spread decreased by 9. [3]

| 損 | | | --- | --- | | JTURES | 15 | | 国 内 F U | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | FU 01 | FU 05 | FU 09 | FU 01-05 | FU 05-09 | FU 09-01 | | 2025/07/21 | 2886 | 2828 | 2924 | 58 | -96 | 38 | | 2025/07/22 | 2894 | 2845 | 2924 | 49 | -79 | 30 | | 2025/07/23 | 2876 | 2833 | 2879 | 43 | -46 | 3 | | 2025/07/24 | 2886 | 2848 | 2879 | 38 | -31 | -7 | | 2025/07/25 | 2921 | 2872 | 2915 | 49 | -43 | -6 | | 变化 | 35 | 24 | 36 | 11 | -12 | 1 | 国 内 L U | 日期 | LU 01 | LU 05 | LU 09 | LU 01-0 ...

Economic Overview - In the first half of the year, Beijing's GDP reached 25,029.2 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 5.5% at constant prices [1] - The total retail sales of consumer goods in Beijing amounted to 6,734.2 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 3.8% [1] Sector Performance - Retail sales in the fashion and entertainment categories, such as gold and jewelry, sports and entertainment products, and cosmetics, grew by 36.1%, 9.3%, and 7.6% respectively [1] - Green and smart consumption categories, including home appliances and cultural office supplies, saw retail sales increase by 4.6% and 3.1% respectively due to the old-for-new consumption policy [1] - Basic living goods, such as grain and oil, and daily necessities, experienced year-on-year growth of 13.9% and 2.7% respectively [1] Consumption Trends - The decline in retail sales is attributed to insufficient effective demand, intense market competition, and changes in business models of some enterprises [2] - The automotive sector, particularly the fuel vehicle market, has seen a decrease in demand, leading to a decline in retail sales of automotive products and related petroleum products [2] Future Outlook - Beijing aims for an average annual growth of around 5% in total market consumption by 2030, with plans to establish 2-3 new consumption landmarks worth over 100 billion yuan [2] - The total market consumption, which includes both goods and services, is increasingly recognized as a more comprehensive measure of consumption vitality compared to traditional retail sales figures [3] - Service consumption in Beijing grew by 4.7% year-on-year in the first half of the year, driven by a strong demand for experiential consumption [3] - The overall growth rate of total market consumption in Beijing was modest at 0.9% year-on-year, prompting the release of 24 measures to stimulate consumption [3]

Economic Growth and Consumption - In the first half of 2025, domestic demand became a crucial pillar supporting GDP growth, with final consumption expenditure contributing 52% to economic growth [2][3] - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 24.55 trillion yuan, growing by 5.0% year-on-year, with a notable acceleration in the second quarter [3][4] - The "old-for-new" policy significantly boosted retail sales in categories such as home appliances and automobiles, with substantial growth rates observed [4][5] Investment Trends - National fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) reached 24.87 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.8%, and a growth of 6.6% when excluding real estate development [6][7] - Infrastructure investment grew by 4.6%, while manufacturing investment increased by 7.5%, although real estate development investment saw a decline of 11.2% [7] - The potential for fixed asset investment remains significant, with a focus on enhancing efficiency and effectiveness in manufacturing and infrastructure investments [8]

Economic Growth - China's GDP for the first half of the year reached 66,053.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3%[3] - The GDP growth rate for the second quarter was 5.2%, slightly lower than the first quarter's 5.4%[3] - A projected growth rate of 4.7% in the second half would still allow for achieving the annual target of around 5%[4] Trade and International Relations - China's GDP share relative to the US is expected to recover, which is crucial amid current international trade tensions[4] - The resilience shown in China's economy may provide leverage in trade negotiations, especially with the US increasing tariffs on other economies[4] Consumption Trends - Retail sales showed a decline in June, influenced by the end of the "618" shopping festival and high base effects from last year[5] - Restaurant income saw a significant drop in June, with a year-on-year decrease attributed to high base effects and competitive pressures from platforms like JD and Meituan[5] Industrial Performance - Industrial production exceeded expectations, with June's industrial value-added growth recorded at 6.8%, driven by a surge in exports[5] - However, the industrial capacity utilization rate fell to 74.0% in the second quarter, indicating potential pressures on future production[7] Investment Insights - Manufacturing investment growth slowed to 5.1% in June, reflecting weakened private sector confidence and investment activity[7] - Infrastructure investment growth decreased to 5.3% in June, primarily due to declines in public utilities and environmental sectors[8] Real Estate Market - The real estate market is under pressure compared to the previous year, with investment growth declining and sales in 30 cities dropping significantly[8] - Despite improvements in certain real estate indicators, the overall investment trend remains negative, indicating ongoing challenges in the sector[8]