Economic Overview - The city's economy has shown stable recovery and continuous improvement from January to August, with a more pronounced upward trend [1] - Industrial production remains steady, with the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises increasing by 7.7% year-on-year [1] Industrial Performance - The manufacturing sector leads the growth, with an added value increase of 8.5%, contributing 6.7 percentage points to the overall industrial growth [1] - Among 37 industrial categories, 27 reported year-on-year growth, resulting in a growth coverage of 73.0% [1] - Key sectors such as equipment manufacturing, high-tech manufacturing, and consumer goods manufacturing saw added value increases of 9.3%, 8.9%, and 8.8% respectively [1] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment in the city grew by 3.7% year-on-year, with significant growth in the secondary industry at 22.9% [2] - Industrial investment increased by 22.8%, with manufacturing investment rising by 20.0% [2] - New momentum investments, including "Four New" investments and high-tech industry investments, grew by 11.0% and 24.2% respectively [2] Consumer Market - The retail market accelerated recovery, with retail sales of above-limit units reaching 36.91 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.5% [2] - Categories such as home appliances and audio-visual equipment, grain and oil products, and petroleum products saw significant retail sales growth of 48.7%, 18.3%, and 16.6% respectively [2] Service Sector - The revenue of large-scale service enterprises increased by 11.6% year-on-year, with 19 out of 29 industry categories showing growth [3] - Key sectors like scientific research, information technology services, and cultural and entertainment services experienced double-digit growth [3] Financial Indicators - The city's general public budget revenue reached 18.53 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.8% [3] - By the end of August, the balance of deposits in financial institutions was 738.65 billion yuan, up 11.0% year-on-year [3] Energy Consumption - Total electricity consumption reached 20.65 billion kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year increase of 5.0%, with industrial and tertiary sector electricity consumption growing by 3.0% and 8.8% respectively [3] Price Trends - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) was 99.6, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 0.4%, with five categories of goods and services experiencing price increases [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating Due to the lack of relevant content, this part is skipped. Core Viewpoints - The high - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore has a supply surplus in floating and fixed storage tanks, and the supply pressure will continue. The fuel oil is expected to oscillate at a low level. FU2510 will operate in the 2690 - 2740 range, and LU2511 will operate in the 3430 - 3480 range. The行情 is driven by the resonance of supply affected by geopolitical risks and neutral demand [3]. - The potential increase in sanctions against Russia is a bullish factor, while the unproven optimism on the demand side and the weak upstream crude oil price are bearish factors [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The fundamentals show a supply surplus of high - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore, with supply pressure to continue. The basis indicates that the spot price is higher than the futures price. The Singapore fuel oil inventory increased by 189 barrels to 2263.9 barrels in the week of August 13. The price is below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward. The high - sulfur main position is short - held with short positions decreasing, and the low - sulfur main position is long - held with long positions increasing. The fuel oil is expected to oscillate at a low level [3]. - The previous values of FU and LU main - contract futures prices were 2701 and 3452 respectively, and the current values are 2712 and 3461, with increases of 11 and 9, and change rates of 0.41% and 0.26% respectively. The previous values of FU and LU basis were 125 and 94 respectively, and the current values are 134 and 61, with changes of 9 and - 33, and change rates of 7.23% and - 35.12% respectively [5]. - The previous values of spot prices of Zhoushan high - sulfur fuel oil, Zhoushan low - sulfur fuel oil, Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil, Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil, Middle - East high - sulfur fuel oil, and Singapore diesel were 484.00, 505.00, 383.49, 480.50, 364.13, and 608.06 respectively. The current values are 485.00, 505.00, 387.06, 481.50, 367.70, and 618.93 respectively, with increases of 1.00, 0.00, 3.57, 1.00, 3.57, and 10.88 respectively, and change rates of 0.21%, 0.00%, 0.93%, 0.21%, 0.98%, and 1.79% respectively [6]. 2. Multi - Short Attention - Bullish factors include the possible intensification of sanctions against Russia. Bearish factors include the unproven optimism on the demand side and the weak upstream crude oil price. The行情 is driven by the resonance of supply affected by geopolitical risks and neutral demand [4]. 3. Fundamental Data - The fundamentals of fuel oil show a supply surplus of high - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore, with supply pressure to continue. The basis shows that the spot price is higher than the futures price. The inventory in Singapore increased in the week of August 13. The price is below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward. The high - sulfur main position is short - held with short positions decreasing, and the low - sulfur main position is long - held with long positions increasing. The fuel oil is expected to oscillate at a low level [3]. 4. Inventory Data - The Singapore fuel oil inventory on August 13 was 2263.9 barrels, an increase of 189 barrels compared to the previous period [3][8]. 5. Spread Data - Due to the lack of relevant content, this part is skipped.

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - This week, the high-sulfur cracking of Singapore 380cst rebounded and then weakened, the near-month spread fluctuated, and the EW spread fluctuated. The 9 - 10 spread weakened to $3.5/ton, the basis oscillated at a low level (-$4), and the FU01 internal - external spread weakened slightly to -$0.8. The 0.5 cracking of Singapore oscillated and weakened, the 9 - 10 spread weakened to $2.75/ton, and the LU11 internal - external spread oscillated at $9. [3][4] - This week, Singapore's onshore inventory decreased, but it was still not the highest in the same period of history. The floating storage decreased significantly month - on - month. Saudi Arabia's shipments decreased significantly, and the arrivals this week oscillated. UAE's shipments rebounded month - on - month, and net exports increased significantly. The onshore inventory in Fujairah, the Middle East, decreased, the floating storage of high - sulfur and low - sulfur increased significantly, the ARA residue inventory increased, and the US residue inventory decreased, showing a large inventory contradiction. [4] - The east - west divergence of high - sulfur fuel oil continued. In the heavy - oil pattern, the cracking of Singapore 380cst was the weakest, and the premium of heavy crude oil was the strongest. A two - way regression is expected in the future. This week, LU remained weak. The basis of the external MF0.5 weakened again and then oscillated. After the LU quota was issued, the internal - external spread oscillated. [4] - In the short term, pay attention to the opportunity of the high - sulfur 380 EW spread widening. Fundamentally, the supply of high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to increase, and the supply - demand pattern will weaken. [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data - From August 11 to August 15, 2025, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 decreased by $3.94, the price of Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 decreased by $0.58, the Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 decreased by $0.38, the Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1 increased by $3.43, the Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 decreased by $4.01, the LGO - Brent M1 increased by $1.46, and the Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 increased by $3.36. [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data - From August 11 to August 15, 2025, the price of Singapore 380cst M1 decreased by $0.95, the price of Singapore 180cst M1 decreased by $0.14, the price of Singapore VLSFO M1 increased by $0.20, the price of Singapore Gasoil M1 decreased by $0.59, the Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 decreased by $0.60, and the Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 increased by $4.57. [1][9] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data - From August 11 to August 15, 2025, the FOB 380cst price increased by $0.27, the FOB VLSFO price increased by $1.39, the 380 basis increased by $0.55, the high - sulfur internal - external spread increased by $0.1, and the low - sulfur internal - external spread increased by $1.4. [2] Domestic FU Data - From August 11 to August 15, 2025, the price of FU 01 decreased by 4, the price of FU 05 increased by 5, the price of FU 09 decreased by 9, the FU 01 - 05 spread decreased by 9, the FU 05 - 09 spread increased by 14, and the FU 09 - 01 spread decreased by 5. [2] Domestic LU Data - From August 11 to August 15, 2025, the price of LU 01 increased by 3, the price of LU 05 increased by 5, the price of LU 09 decreased by 6, the LU 01 - 05 spread decreased by 2, the LU 05 - 09 spread increased by 11, and the LU 09 - 01 spread decreased by 9. [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Commerce has issued the "Regulations on the Management of Refined Oil Circulation" to standardize the domestic refined oil market and promote healthy industry development, effective from September 1 [1][4] Group 1: Industry Context - China is the world's second-largest oil consumer, with a total consumption of over 350 million tons of gasoline and diesel, supported by approximately 110,000 gas stations and over 400 million vehicles [2][3] - There have been frequent violations by some enterprises, including the production of substandard oil and illegal sales at unlicensed gas stations, which harm consumer interests and disrupt the oil industry [2][3] Group 2: Regulatory Changes - The new regulations include a total of six chapters and 44 articles, establishing overall requirements for refined oil circulation management, including record-keeping for wholesale and storage operations, and licensing for retail operations [4][5] - Specific requirements for record-keeping and licensing for refined oil wholesale and storage businesses have been outlined, including application materials, procedures, and validity periods [5] - The regulations mandate regular inspections and enhanced digital supervision, with penalties for violations categorized by severity [5][6] Group 3: Industry Impact - The implementation of these regulations is seen as a significant step towards improving the management of the refined oil circulation industry and protecting consumer rights by reducing the prevalence of fake and substandard oil [6] - The regulations emphasize cross-departmental joint supervision and intelligent management across the entire supply chain, facilitating coordinated governance of issues in the refined oil circulation sector [6]

Group 1 - Fuel oil futures experienced a decline, with the main contract trading at 2820.00 CNY/ton, reflecting a drop of 3.23% [1] - Singapore's fuel oil inventory rose by 969,000 barrels to reach 24.668 million barrels, marking a three-week high as of the week ending July 30 [2] - An estimated 3 million tons of fuel oil is expected to arrive in Asia in August, with more shipments anticipated in the coming weeks [2] Group 2 - The influx of fuel oil into Asia has led to a sufficient supply in the market, causing spot prices to widen [3] - OPEC announced an increase in production by 547,000 barrels per day starting in September, marking a significant shift from a previous reduction strategy [3] - Weak economic data from the U.S. and concerns over demand have negatively impacted the market, leading to a substantial decline in international oil prices [3]

Report Information - Report Title: Fuel Oil Morning Report [3] - Report Date: July 28, 2025 [3] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [3] Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - This week, the high-sulfur crack spread fluctuated, the near-month spread declined and returned to the historical low for the same period, the EW continued to weaken and rebounded on Friday. The 380 September - October spread weakened to around $2, and the 380 basis continued to weaken to -$7.25/ton. The FU09 domestic - foreign spread rebounded and then fluctuated. [6] - The Singapore 0.5 crack spread fluctuated downward, the September - October spread weakened to around $2.75, the LU domestic - foreign spread weakened, and the 09 domestic - foreign spread dropped to $0.7. [7] - This week, Singapore's on - shore inventory increased slightly, the floating storage decreased, the near - month spread was under pressure. Saudi Arabia's shipments increased month - on - month, and its imports also increased. The UAE's shipments decreased significantly month - on - month. Egypt's net imports decreased slightly month - on - month but remained at a seasonal high. [7] - The high - sulfur supply and demand is still in the peak season, the 380 crack spread fluctuated after a decline, and currently, the EW arbitrage window is theoretically open. The domestic - foreign spread repaired and then fluctuated. [7] - This week, the hi - 5 spread fluctuated after a slight decline. The domestic LU domestic - foreign spread decline was realized, and the FU - LU domestic - foreign valuation was partially realized. Attention should be paid to whether there is support for the 380 near - month contract. [7] Data Summary Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data | Type | 2025/07/21 | 2025/07/22 | 2025/07/23 | 2025/07/24 | 2025/07/25 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O Swap M1 | 422.21 | 418.59 | 422.47 | 427.93 | 418.40 | -9.53 | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO Swap M1 | 469.91 | 464.51 | 462.79 | 468.25 | 464.12 | -4.13 | | Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 | -1.66 | -1.61 | -0.90 | -1.25 | -2.01 | -0.76 | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | 695.90 | 683.83 | 680.79 | 678.48 | 684.86 | 6.38 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | -225.99 | -219.32 | -218.00 | -210.23 | -220.74 | -10.51 | | LGO - Brent M1 | 25.76 | 24.83 | 24.64 | 23.87 | 25.32 | 1.45 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 | 47.70 | 45.92 | 40.32 | 40.32 | 45.72 | 5.40 | [4] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data | Type | 2025/07/21 | 2025/07/22 | 2025/07/23 | 2025/07/24 | 2025/07/25 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Singapore 380cst M1 | 411.16 | 408.54 | 405.10 | 406.59 | 410.89 | 4.30 | | Singapore 180cst M1 | 425.21 | 423.78 | 423.10 | 419.28 | 423.97 | 4.69 | | Singapore VLSFO M1 | 493.65 | 494.54 | 492.19 | 493.11 | 495.32 | 2.21 | | Singapore Gasoil M1 | 90.15 | 90.87 | 89.54 | 90.17 | 90.17 | 0.00 | | Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 | -3.42 | -3.46 | -3.88 | -4.19 | -3.97 | 0.22 | | Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | -173.46 | -177.90 | -170.41 | -174.15 | -171.94 | 2.21 | [4] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data | Type | 2025/07/21 | 2025/07/22 | 2025/07/23 | 2025/07/24 | 2025/07/25 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | 404.97 | 401.08 | 398.16 | 400.30 | 403.34 | 3.04 | | FOB VLSFO | 497.55 | 498.63 | 496.58 | 496.85 | 499.89 | 3.04 | | 380 Basis | -6.11 | -6.05 | -6.25 | -7.25 | -6.25 | 1.00 | | High - Sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread | -4.2 | -2.1 | -4.9 | -4.5 | -3.9 | 0.6 | | Low - Sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread | 12.2 | 12.8 | 10.9 | 11.5 | 9.8 | -1.7 | [5] Domestic FU Data | Type | 2025/07/21 | 2025/07/22 | 2025/07/23 | 2025/07/24 | 2025/07/25 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FU 01 | 2886 | 2894 | 2876 | 2886 | 2921 | 35 | | FU 05 | 2828 | 2845 | 2833 | 2848 | 2872 | 24 | | FU 09 | 2924 | 2924 | 2879 | 2879 | 2915 | 36 | | FU 01 - 05 | 58 | 49 | 43 | 38 | 49 | 11 | | FU 05 - 09 | -96 | -79 | -46 | -31 | -43 | -12 | | FU 09 - 01 | 38 | 30 | 3 | -7 | -6 | 1 | [5] Domestic LU Data | Type | 2025/07/21 | 2025/07/22 | 2025/07/23 | 2025/07/24 | 2025/07/25 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LU 01 | 3550 | 3525 | 3515 | 3546 | 3549 | 3 | | LU 05 | 3500 | 3470 | 3472 | 3466 | 3489 | 23 | | LU 09 | 3603 | 3584 | 3569 | 3591 | 3611 | 20 | | LU 01 - 05 | 50 | 55 | 43 | 80 | 60 | -20 | | LU 05 - 09 | -103 | -114 | -97 | -125 | -122 | 3 | | LU 09 - 01 | 53 | 59 | 54 | 45 | 62 | 17 | [6]

Economic Overview - In the first half of the year, Beijing's GDP reached 25,029.2 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 5.5% at constant prices [1] - The total retail sales of consumer goods in Beijing amounted to 6,734.2 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 3.8% [1] Sector Performance - Retail sales in the fashion and entertainment categories, such as gold and jewelry, sports and entertainment products, and cosmetics, grew by 36.1%, 9.3%, and 7.6% respectively [1] - Green and smart consumption categories, including home appliances and cultural office supplies, saw retail sales increase by 4.6% and 3.1% respectively due to the old-for-new consumption policy [1] - Basic living goods, such as grain and oil, and daily necessities, experienced year-on-year growth of 13.9% and 2.7% respectively [1] Consumption Trends - The decline in retail sales is attributed to insufficient effective demand, intense market competition, and changes in business models of some enterprises [2] - The automotive sector, particularly the fuel vehicle market, has seen a decrease in demand, leading to a decline in retail sales of automotive products and related petroleum products [2] Future Outlook - Beijing aims for an average annual growth of around 5% in total market consumption by 2030, with plans to establish 2-3 new consumption landmarks worth over 100 billion yuan [2] - The total market consumption, which includes both goods and services, is increasingly recognized as a more comprehensive measure of consumption vitality compared to traditional retail sales figures [3] - Service consumption in Beijing grew by 4.7% year-on-year in the first half of the year, driven by a strong demand for experiential consumption [3] - The overall growth rate of total market consumption in Beijing was modest at 0.9% year-on-year, prompting the release of 24 measures to stimulate consumption [3]

Economic Growth and Consumption - In the first half of 2025, domestic demand became a crucial pillar supporting GDP growth, with final consumption expenditure contributing 52% to economic growth [2][3] - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 24.55 trillion yuan, growing by 5.0% year-on-year, with a notable acceleration in the second quarter [3][4] - The "old-for-new" policy significantly boosted retail sales in categories such as home appliances and automobiles, with substantial growth rates observed [4][5] Investment Trends - National fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) reached 24.87 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.8%, and a growth of 6.6% when excluding real estate development [6][7] - Infrastructure investment grew by 4.6%, while manufacturing investment increased by 7.5%, although real estate development investment saw a decline of 11.2% [7] - The potential for fixed asset investment remains significant, with a focus on enhancing efficiency and effectiveness in manufacturing and infrastructure investments [8]

Economic Growth - China's GDP for the first half of the year reached 66,053.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3%[3] - The GDP growth rate for the second quarter was 5.2%, slightly lower than the first quarter's 5.4%[3] - A projected growth rate of 4.7% in the second half would still allow for achieving the annual target of around 5%[4] Trade and International Relations - China's GDP share relative to the US is expected to recover, which is crucial amid current international trade tensions[4] - The resilience shown in China's economy may provide leverage in trade negotiations, especially with the US increasing tariffs on other economies[4] Consumption Trends - Retail sales showed a decline in June, influenced by the end of the "618" shopping festival and high base effects from last year[5] - Restaurant income saw a significant drop in June, with a year-on-year decrease attributed to high base effects and competitive pressures from platforms like JD and Meituan[5] Industrial Performance - Industrial production exceeded expectations, with June's industrial value-added growth recorded at 6.8%, driven by a surge in exports[5] - However, the industrial capacity utilization rate fell to 74.0% in the second quarter, indicating potential pressures on future production[7] Investment Insights - Manufacturing investment growth slowed to 5.1% in June, reflecting weakened private sector confidence and investment activity[7] - Infrastructure investment growth decreased to 5.3% in June, primarily due to declines in public utilities and environmental sectors[8] Real Estate Market - The real estate market is under pressure compared to the previous year, with investment growth declining and sales in 30 cities dropping significantly[8] - Despite improvements in certain real estate indicators, the overall investment trend remains negative, indicating ongoing challenges in the sector[8]