1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Singapore's high-sulfur spot window has seen a large number of high - price transactions, supporting the high - level oscillation of high - sulfur spot discounts. Geopolitical factors are the main bullish drivers. The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil has increased significantly in the short term [4]. - The trading strategy suggests a strong oscillation for unilateral trading, paying attention to geopolitical fluctuations; for arbitrage, take profit on the FU59 long - spread at high levels and pay attention to the LU near - month reverse spread; and adopt a wait - and - see approach for options [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies 3.1.1 Comprehensive Analysis - High - sulfur: Singapore's high - sulfur spot window transactions support high - level oscillation of discounts. Geopolitical and macro - disturbances persist, with fuel export restrictions and concerns in Russia and Iran. China's state - owned procurement volume increase reflects feedstock demand. - Low - sulfur: The Dangote refinery's gasoline unit maintenance delay and the full - scale recovery of Kuwait's Al - Zour refinery have led to an increase in low - sulfur supply and exports [4]. 3.1.2 Strategies - Unilateral: Strong oscillation, focus on geopolitical fluctuations. - Arbitrage: Take profit on the FU59 long - spread at high levels; pay attention to the LU near - month reverse spread. - Options: Wait - and - see [6] 3.2 Core Logic Analysis 3.2.1 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil Supply - Russia: The Tuapse port has resumed exports, and the refinery's processing and export volume are expected to increase in February. In January, high - sulfur fuel oil exports increased by 27% month - on - month and 30% year - on - year [10]. - Mexico: High - sulfur exports are at a historical low. In 2026, with the full - load operation of the Olmeca refinery and the stable operation of the Tula coking unit, high - sulfur exports will decline marginally [18]. - Middle East: Iran's situation is volatile. In January, high - sulfur fuel oil exports were 110 tons, down 10 tons month - on - month and 9% year - on - year. Iraq plans to supply over 6 million tons of high - sulfur fuel oil from January to June 2026 [21]. 3.2.2 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil Demand - Feedstock demand: PetroChina has been actively purchasing high - sulfur fuel oil in the Singapore spot window. In January, China's high - sulfur arrivals increased by 5% month - on - month [24]. - Marine fuel demand: Singapore's high - sulfur marine fuel bunkering in December 2025 increased by 14% month - on - month and 15% year - on - year. The proportion of high - sulfur marine fuel consumption continued to increase marginally [27]. 3.2.3 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Supply - Nigeria: The Dangote refinery's RFCC unit restart has been postponed. In January, low - sulfur exports were about 360,000 tons, up 49% month - on - month [30]. - South Sudan: Energy facilities' supply is gradually recovering. In January, exports declined to about 190,000 tons but have room for further growth [31]. - Middle East: The Al - Zour refinery in Kuwait has fully recovered production. In January, low - sulfur fuel oil exports reached a record high of about 1.15 million tons [34]. - Pan - Singapore region: The Balikpapan refinery in Indonesia has completed its transformation and upgrading project, with expected offsetting changes in VLSFO production [37]. 3.2.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Demand - There is no specific driving force. Singapore's low - sulfur marine fuel bunkering in December 2025 increased by 2.4% month - on - month and 15.0% year - on - year, but the proportion decreased by 0.4 percentage points [40]. 3.2.5 Marine Fuel Oil - The proportion of high - sulfur marine fuel demand continues to increase marginally. The Red Sea suspension has indirectly promoted the growth of the high - sulfur marine fuel market share. The installation of desulfurization towers on global ships has accelerated [43]. 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking - The report provides various data charts on fuel oil prices, spreads, inventories, etc., including fuel oil spot prices, high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil cross - regional and cross - period spreads, natural gas - fuel oil price ratios, cross - regional freight rates, Singapore bunkering spreads, and fuel oil inventory structures in different regions [47][52][62]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fuel oil market is affected by multiple factors, with a neutral supply - demand situation. The low - sulfur market has sufficient supply, and the high - sulfur market also maintains an abundant supply. The demand for marine fuel oil is expected to increase before the Spring Festival. The market follows the trend of crude oil, with the low - sulfur fuel oil market structure being weak and the high - sulfur fuel oil market performing slightly stronger. FU2603 is expected to operate in the 2760 - 2810 range, and LU2603 in the 3250 - 3300 range [3] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Hints - The fundamentals of fuel oil show a neutral supply - demand situation. The 2 - month inflow of arbitrage cargoes from the West is expected to be high, keeping the low - sulfur market well - supplied. The high - sulfur fuel oil market also maintains abundant supply due to stable arrivals at the Singapore port. The demand for marine fuel oil is expected to increase before the Spring Festival. The basis shows that the spot is at a premium to the futures. The inventory in Singapore increased by 950,000 barrels to 25.529 million barrels in the week of February 4. The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward. The main positions in both high - sulfur and low - sulfur are short positions, with short positions decreasing. The overnight crude oil fluctuated, and the fuel oil followed. The low - sulfur fuel oil market structure is weak, and the high - sulfur fuel oil market is slightly stronger [3] - The prices of the FU and LU main contracts increased by 1.40% and 1.14% respectively, and the basis increased by 19.72% and 16%. The spot prices of various types of fuel oil also increased, with the Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil rising by 2.12% [5][6] 3.2 Long and Short Concerns - Bullish factors: Iranian situation turmoil and the issuance of Chinese import quotas [4] - Bearish factors: The optimism on the demand side remains to be verified, and the upstream crude oil is under pressure [4] - Market driver: The supply side is affected by geopolitical risks, and the demand is neutral [4] 3.3 Fundamental Data - The supply of fuel oil is abundant, with high inflows of arbitrage cargoes from the West for low - sulfur and stable arrivals at Singapore port for high - sulfur. The demand for marine fuel oil is expected to increase before the Spring Festival [3] 3.4 Spread Data - The report provides the spread between high - and low - sulfur futures, but no specific numerical analysis is given [10] 3.5 Inventory Data - The Singapore fuel oil inventory on February 4, 2026, was 25.529 million barrels, an increase of 950,000 barrels compared to the previous period. Historical inventory data from November 26, 2025, to February 4, 2026, are also provided [3][8]

Group 1 - Fuel oil futures experienced a rapid increase, reaching a peak of 2826.00 yuan, with a current price of 2800.00 yuan, reflecting a rise of 4.09% [1] - The supply of high-sulfur fuel oil in Singapore is limited due to tight supply from tugboats, leading to a continuous increase in spot price differentials [2] - Singapore's fuel oil inventory has decreased to its lowest level in eight months, with a 14.7% drop to 19.94 million barrels (approximately 3.14 million tons) as of January 28, indicating a second consecutive week of decline [2] Group 2 - The fuel oil market is expected to experience wide fluctuations, with supply and demand both increasing, and cost trends following crude oil movements [3] - The main contract for FU was reported at 2735 yuan/ton, with support expected around 2600, while the LU main contract was at 3217 yuan/ton, with support around 3100 [3]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, for high - sulfur fuel oil, focus on the reshaping of global supply logistics after the end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and Western sanctions. The total external supply of high - sulfur fuel oil will increase, but the supply to Asia will be gradually diverted. In the second quarter, there may be a short - term gap in Asian high - sulfur fuel oil after diversion, which, combined with the Middle East's peak - season power generation stockpiling, may strongly support the Asian high - sulfur price in the short term [4][67]. - In 2026, for low - sulfur fuel oil, pay attention to the changes in facilities in various regions. The interference from the Sudanese civil war on South Sudan's supply is expected to weaken. Al - Zour refinery's operations will return to stability, and its exports will increase. Dangote refinery's gasoline unit will return in January 2026, and Nigeria's monthly low - sulfur exports are expected to be between 20 and 30 million tons. The Chinese market's monthly output will remain around 1 million tons. The low - sulfur fuel oil demand for shipping is stable without specific drivers, and the power - generation economy is poor [67]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Preface and Market Overview 3.1.1. Market Review in 2025 - High - sulfur fuel oil showed a strong - in - the - first - half and weak - in - the - second - half trend. In the first quarter, the supply from major regions such as Russia, Iran, and Mexico was short. In the second quarter, supply increased, and the summer power - generation demand started. In the second half of the year, high inventory suppressed prices [4][9]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil was affected by the changes in energy facilities in several supply regions, and the market price fluctuated weakly with lower volatility than in previous years [4][12]. 3.1.2. Market Outlook for 2026 - High - sulfur fuel oil: Pay attention to the reshaping of supply logistics. The total supply will increase, but the supply to Asia will be diverted. The second quarter may see a short - term price increase in Asia [4][67]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Focus on facility changes in various regions [4][67]. 3.1.3. Strategy Recommendations - Unilateral: Before February 2026, there is an oversupply pressure for low - sulfur fuel oil. Look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds. For high - sulfur fuel oil, focus on the Russia - Ukraine situation [5][68]. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the FU5 - 9 positive spread arbitrage opportunity [5][68]. - Options: None [5][68]. 3.2. Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1. High - Sulfur Fuel Oil Supply - **Russia**: In 2025, supply was affected by sanctions and bombings. In 2026, if the situation eases, the total supply will increase, but the supply to Asia will be diverted [17][20]. - **Mexico**: In 2025, high - sulfur supply was affected by the unstable operation of Olmeca refinery and the new coking unit of Tula refinery. In 2026, high - sulfur exports are expected to fall below 500,000 tons per month [26][28]. - **Middle East**: In 2025, supply was affected by sanctions and power - generation demand. In the second half of the year, supply returned to normal [30]. 3.2.2. High - Sulfur Fuel Oil Demand - **Ship fuel**: The demand was stable, supported by the growth of the number of ships equipped with desulfurization towers. In 2026, if shipping resumes, the total ship - fuel demand may decrease, but the high - sulfur consumption structure may remain stable [33][36]. - **Feedstock in China**: In 2025, it was affected by policies and sanctions. In 2026, it is expected to remain at around 1 million tons per month [40][41]. - **Power generation**: In 2025, the demand in Egypt and the Middle East increased in the first half of the year but declined later. In the long term, the demand in Saudi Arabia is expected to decline [44][47]. 3.2.3. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **South Sudan**: In 2025, exports were frequently disrupted by the civil war. In 2026, exports are expected to be stable at 3 - 4 batches per month, flowing to the Pan - Singapore region [50][52]. - **Kuwait**: In 2025, supply was affected by Al - Zour refinery's production changes and UAE's diversion. In 2026, total exports and exports to the Pan - Singapore region are expected to increase [54][55]. - **Nigeria**: In 2025, supply was affected by Dangote refinery's RFCC unit outages. In 2026, monthly exports are expected to be 20 - 30 million tons, flowing to the Pan - Singapore region [55][56].

Report Industry Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, slightly bearish [3] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, slightly bearish [3] - Cross-variety: None [3] - Cross-period: None [3] - Spot-futures: None [3] - Options: None [3] Core Viewpoints - The crude oil price has rebounded from the low level recently, but the expectation of oversupply in the oil market has not reversed, and the downward pressure on the unilateral prices of FU and LU from the crude oil end will continue [1] - The current fuel oil market has a mix of long and short factors, and the overall contradiction is limited. The cracking spread of high-sulfur fuel oil has shown signs of stabilizing and rebounding after a sharp correction [1] - The supply of low-sulfur fuel oil in Kuwait and Nigeria is expected to increase due to changes in the maintenance status of refineries. The short-term market pressure may be limited, but the overall supply is abundant, and the valuation will be continuously suppressed [2] Summary by Related Contents Market Analysis - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed up 2.14% at 2,483 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 1.42% at 2,999 yuan/ton [1] - The improvement in processing profit has boosted the demand from downstream refineries, and fuel oil can be used as a supplement if there is a problem with the supply of diluted bitumen. The shipments from Russia and Iran decreased again in December, and drone attacks and sanctions remain constraints on supply [1] - Due to changes in the maintenance status of refineries (Azur and Dangote), the supply of low-sulfur fuel oil in Kuwait and Nigeria is expected to increase. Azur Refinery's CDU unit and desulfurization unit have restarted or are expected to restart. Kuwait is expected to ship the first batch of low-sulfur fuel oil cargo on December 27, with an expected export volume of 47,000 tons in December [2] Strategy - High-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, slightly bearish [3] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, slightly bearish [3] - No strategies are proposed for cross-variety, cross-period, spot-futures, and options [3]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - Last week, crude oil showed a trend of first falling and then rising, and fuel oil prices also followed the same pattern. High-sulfur fuel oil closed at 2,415 yuan/ton, up 0.42% for the week, while low-sulfur fuel oil closed at 2,932 yuan/ton, down 2.01% for the week [3]. - Due to poor arbitrage economics in the early stage, the arrival volume of low-sulfur fuel oil from the Western market in December is expected to decline for the first time in three months, providing some support for the low-sulfur fuel oil market. However, recent chartering activities may cause the inflow of arbitrage goods to rebound again in January, and the Asian low-sulfur fuel oil market is expected to remain well-supplied throughout January and possibly extend to February. Although the ample immediate supply continues to drag down the Asian high-sulfur fuel oil market, the good downstream marine fuel demand provides some support for the market fundamentals [3]. - Despite the unfeasibility of East-West arbitrage due to high freight rates, the arbitrage arrival volume in Singapore from the Western market in December is expected to decrease. However, the significant inventory accumulation in November, combined with the considerable supply from the Middle East in recent weeks, will keep the Asian fuel oil market well-supplied throughout December and January. On the demand side, downstream marine bunkering activities are relatively stable. In addition, the decline in high-sulfur fuel oil cracking margins may boost the demand for high-sulfur fuel oil as raw materials from Asian refineries in the next few months. Attention should be paid to the impact of China's announced crude oil import quota for 2026 on raw material demand. In the short term, the prices of FU and LU will fluctuate repeatedly following oil prices. Attention should be paid to the potential boost from geopolitical events. Operationally, for high-sulfur fuel oil, short-term operations should be conducted in the range of 2,350 - 2,500 yuan/ton, and for low-sulfur fuel oil, short-term operations should be conducted in the range of 2,900 - 3,050 yuan/ton [4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Weekly View - The price trends of crude oil and fuel oil last week were first falling and then rising. The prices and weekly changes of high-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oil are given, and the supply and demand situations of high-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oil in the Asian market are analyzed. The short-term price trends and operational suggestions for FU and LU are also provided [3][4]. 2. Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: The data of the previous and current values, price changes, and change amplitudes of the FU and LU main contracts are presented. The FU main contract decreased by 4 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.18%, and the LU main contract decreased by 86 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.84% [5]. - **Spot Prices**: The data of the previous and current values, price changes, and change amplitudes of high-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oils in Zhoushan, Singapore, and the Middle East, as well as Singapore diesel, are provided. Among them, the prices of Zhoushan high-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oils decreased, while the prices of Singapore high-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oils, Middle East high-sulfur fuel oil, and Singapore diesel increased [6]. 3. Fundamental Data - **Consumption Data**: Line charts of Singapore fuel oil consumption, China fuel oil consumption, and Shandong fuel oil coking gross profit from 2021 - 2025 are presented, but specific numerical analysis is not provided [7][8][9]. 4. Inventory Data - **Singapore Fuel Oil Inventory**: The inventory and its changes from October 8 to December 17 are given. As of December 17, the inventory was 22.559 million barrels, an increase of 140,000 barrels [10]. - **Inventory Trends**: Line charts of Singapore inventory seasonal trends and Zhoushan Port fuel oil inventory trends are presented, but specific numerical analysis is not provided [11][12]. 5. Spread Data - A line chart of the high - low sulfur futures spread is presented, but specific numerical analysis is not provided [14].

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market will remain well - supplied from December to January, and the downstream marine fuel oil demand lacks support. The Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil market is in a state of supply surplus, which will continue for some time [3]. - The spot price of fuel oil is flat against the futures price. The Singapore fuel oil inventory increased in the week of December 10, 2025. The price is below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward. The high - sulfur main position is short - increased, and the low - sulfur main position is long - increased. - Overnight crude oil fluctuated. Although the OPEC and IEA monthly reports were optimistic about demand, the market was pessimistic about the supply surplus. The price of downstream fuel oil generally followed the movement of crude oil. FU2601 is expected to operate in the range of 2350 - 2400, and LU2602 in the range of 2940 - 3000 [3]. Summary by Catalog 1. Daily Prompt - The previous value of the FU main contract futures price was 2420, and the current value is 2394, a decrease of 26 or 1.07%. The previous value of the LU main contract futures price was 3006, and the current value is 3003, a decrease of 3 or 0.10%. The FU basis changed from - 7 to 14, an increase of 21 or 281.22%, and the LU basis changed from 45 to - 6, a decrease of 50 or 112.50% [5]. - The previous value of the spot price of Zhoushan high - sulfur fuel oil was 432.00, and the current value is 426.00, a decrease of 6 or 1.39%. The previous value of Zhoushan low - sulfur fuel oil was 444.00, and the current value is 440.00, a decrease of 4 or 0.90%. The previous value of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil was 330.69, and the current value is 327.74, a decrease of 2.95 or 0.89%. The previous value of Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil was 420.50, and the current value is 410.69, a decrease of 9.81 or 2.33%. The previous value of Middle - East high - sulfur fuel oil was 301.14, and the current value is 299.26, a decrease of 1.88 or 0.62%. The previous value of Singapore diesel was 612.77, and the current value is 606.54, a decrease of 6.24 or 1.02% [6]. 2. Multi - Short Concerns - **Likely to Rise**: Russia's fuel oil export restrictions; the cancellation of the US - Russia talks and the sanctions on Russian oil - related enterprises [4]. - **Likely to Fall**: The optimism on the demand side remains to be verified; the upstream crude oil is under pressure [4]. - **Market Drivers**: The supply side is affected by geopolitical risks, and the demand is neutral [4]. 3. Fundamental Data - **Fundamentals**: The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market will be well - supplied from December to January, and downstream demand lacks support. The Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil market is in a state of supply surplus [3]. - **Basis**: The basis of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is - 7 yuan/ton, and that of Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil is 11 yuan/ton, with the spot price flat against the futures price [3]. - **Inventory**: The Singapore fuel oil inventory in the week of December 10, 2025 was 2241.9 million barrels, an increase of 118 million barrels [3]. - **Disk**: The price is below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward [3]. - **Main Position**: The high - sulfur main position is short - increased, and the low - sulfur main position is long - increased [3]. - **Expectation**: Overnight crude oil fluctuated. The price of downstream fuel oil generally followed the movement of crude oil. FU2601 is expected to operate in the range of 2350 - 2400, and LU2602 in the range of 2940 - 3000 [3]. 4. Inventory Data - The Singapore fuel oil inventory on October 1, 2025 was 2225.9 million barrels, a decrease of 91 million barrels; on October 8, it was 2061.9 million barrels, a decrease of 164 million barrels; on October 15, it was 2235.9 million barrels, an increase of 174 million barrels; on October 22, it was 2744.9 million barrels, an increase of 509 million barrels; on October 29, it was 2092.9 million barrels, a decrease of 652 million barrels; on November 5, it was 2106.9 million barrels, an increase of 14 million barrels; on November 12, it was 2087.9 million barrels, a decrease of 19 million barrels; on November 19, it was 2344.9 million barrels, an increase of 257 million barrels; on November 26, it was 2059.9 million barrels, a decrease of 285 million barrels; on December 3, it was 2123.9 million barrels, an increase of 64 million barrels; on December 10, it was 2241.9 million barrels, an increase of 118 million barrels [8]. 5. Spread Data The report presents the high - low sulfur futures spread chart, but no specific numerical analysis of the spread is provided [12].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market will remain well - supplied from December to January, and downstream marine fuel oil demand lacks support; Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil market is in a supply - surplus situation which will last for some time [3] - Overnight crude oil fluctuated. The Fed's rate cut and neutral - dovish remarks partially stabilized the market, and the US seizure of a Venezuelan oil tanker boosted fuel oil prices. FU2601 is expected to trade in the 2360 - 2410 range, and LU2602 in the 2960 - 3000 range [3] - The market is driven by the resonance of geopolitical risks on the supply side and neutral demand, with potential risks including the breakdown of OPEC+ unity and the escalation of war risks [4] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The previous day's FU主力合约期货价 was 2443, the current value is 2420, down 23 (-0.94%); LU主力合约期货价 was 3014, the current value is 3006, down 8 (-0.27%); FU基差 was 19, the current value is -7, down 26.31 (-139.64%); LU基差 was 25, the current value is 11, down 14 (-55.56%) [5] - The previous day's prices of Zhoushan high - sulfur fuel oil, Zhoushan low - sulfur fuel oil, Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil, Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil, Middle East high - sulfur fuel oil, and Singapore diesel were 430.00, 442.00, 333.15, 418.50, 303.37, and 628.21 respectively. The current values are 432.00, 444.00, 330.69, 415.78, 301.14, and 612.77 respectively, with corresponding changes of 2.00 (0.47%), 2.00 (0.45%), -2.46 (-0.74%), -2.72 (-0.65%), -2.23 (-0.74%), and -15.44 (-2.46%) [6] 2. Long - Short Concerns - Bullish factors: Russia's fuel export restrictions; cancellation of US - Russia talks and sanctions against Russian oil - related enterprises [4] - Bearish factors: Optimism on the demand side remains to be verified; upstream crude oil is under pressure [4] 3. Fundamental Data - Fundamentals: Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market is well - supplied from December to January, and downstream demand lacks support; Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil market is in supply surplus [3] - Basis: Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil basis is -7 yuan/ton, low - sulfur fuel oil basis is 11 yuan/ton, and the spot is at par with the futures [3] - Inventory: Singapore fuel oil inventory in the week of December 3 was 2123.9 million barrels, an increase of 64 million barrels [3] - Disk: The price is below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward [3] - Main positions: High - sulfur main positions are short, with an increase in short positions; low - sulfur main positions are long, with an increase in long positions [3] 4. Spread Data - The report mentions the high - low sulfur futures spread, but no specific data analysis is provided [12] 5. Inventory Data - Singapore fuel oil inventory data from September 24 to December 3 is provided, showing fluctuations in inventory levels [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The fuel oil contracts showed an overall oscillating trend this week, following the fluctuation rhythm of international crude oil. The main influencing factors were OPEC gradually relaxing production cuts, the release of spare production capacity in oil - producing countries like Saudi Arabia, and the increase in medium - sulfur crude oil supply, which supported the fuel oil supply and might further grow after refinery maintenance ended. Russia's refinery operating rate declined due to intensified US sanctions and Ukrainian drone attacks, but the high - sulfur fuel oil shipment in November was expected to be 2.21 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 350,000 tons, showing signs of supply recovery. If the situation in Ukraine eases, it might drive a further increase in Russian supply [2]. - The fuel oil market is expected to maintain a range - bound operation in the short term, affected by crude oil oscillations, inventory fluctuations, and marginal changes in industrial supply and demand. With a mix of bullish and bearish factors, the market is suppressed by crude oil prices above and supported by refinery substitution demand and trade easing below, lacking a continuous trend driver. Future attention should be paid to crude oil price trends, geopolitical situation changes, Singapore fuel oil inventory changes, domestic fuel oil production, and import - export data changes [12]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market 3.1.1 Contract Quotes - The main fuel oil contract FU2601 closed at 2,501 yuan/ton this week, a decrease of 1 yuan/ton or 0.04% from the previous trading week's settlement price. The highest price was 2,522 yuan/ton, the lowest was 2,426 yuan/ton, the trading volume was 2,548,897 lots, and the open interest was 201,892 lots, a decrease of 21,702 lots [3]. 3.1.2 Variety Prices - The fuel oil futures contract prices presented a backwardation market pattern of near - term high and long - term low, showing a near - strong and long - weak performance overall. The liquidity of the main contract FU2601 continued to be concentrated, and the open interest of the FU2602 contract also showed a steady increase [6]. 3.2 Spot Market 3.2.1 Basis Data - The fuel oil benchmark price decreased compared with the beginning of last month, but specific values were not provided in the text [10].

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Low-sulfur fuel oil supply has increased more than expected, and attention should be paid to the impact of refinery device changes on supply. The low-sulfur supply gap disturbance has subsided, and the expected low-sulfur output has significantly increased. The low-sulfur winter power generation demand currently has no driving force [4]. - High-sulfur fuel oil is expected to remain stable and weak in the fourth quarter. Although Russian energy facilities have been attacked, the overall high-sulfur export volume has not been significantly affected. The near - term high - sulfur export from Mexico has significantly rebounded. The fuel feed demand has weakened month - on - month [4]. - For trading strategies, both high - and low - sulfur fuel oils are in a weak and volatile state. It is not recommended to go long for now. The low - sulfur cracking has weakened, and the high - sulfur cracking remains stable at a low level. It is advisable to take a wait - and - see approach for options [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies 3.1.1 Comprehensive Analysis - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Supply has increased more than expected. The resumption of oilfield operations and exports in South Sudan has eliminated the supply gap disturbance. Refinery device changes in various regions, such as the early and extended maintenance of Dangote refinery's RFCC device and the delay of primary processing device maintenance, are affecting supply. The low - sulfur winter power generation demand lacks driving force [4]. - High - sulfur fuel oil: It is expected to remain stable and weak in the fourth quarter. Russian high - sulfur exports are slightly affected by the attacks, and Mexican high - sulfur exports have rebounded. The fuel feed demand has weakened due to the expected early issuance of crude oil quotas in 2026 [4]. 3.1.2 Strategies - Unilateral trading: Both high - and low - sulfur fuel oils are in a weak and volatile state, and it is not recommended to go long [5]. - Arbitrage: Low - sulfur cracking has weakened, and high - sulfur cracking remains stable at a low level [5]. - Options: Take a wait - and - see approach [5]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis 3.2.1 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil Supply - Russia: Energy facilities have been continuously attacked, but the overall high - sulfur export volume has not been significantly affected. Some refineries have been damaged, and the export volume has slightly decreased month - on - month. The EU is planning the 20th round of sanctions against Russia [8][9]. - Mexico: The near - term high - sulfur export has significantly rebounded. The Tula coking unit has been put into operation, and the Olmeca refinery has frequently adjusted its maintenance plan. The high - sulfur output is expected to gradually decrease [13]. - Middle East: The US sanctions against Iran continue. After the demand subsides, the high - sulfur export has increased. Iraq plans to supply more than 6 million tons of high - sulfur fuel oil from January to June 2026 [18][19]. 3.2.2 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil Demand - Feed demand: The expected early issuance of crude oil quotas in 2026 has weakened the high - sulfur feed demand. The actual logistics arrival volume has not increased significantly in the context of the fourth - quarter crude oil quota gap [23][24]. - Marine fuel demand: It provides stable support, and the marginal increase comes from the stable growth of the number of ships equipped with desulfurization towers [28]. - Power generation demand: It has completely subsided, especially in Egypt and Saudi Arabia [31]. 3.2.3 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Supply - Pan - Singapore region: The expected excess supply is gradually decreasing with the increase in RFCC device operation rates. The return of the Malaysian Rapid refinery's RFCC device has been delayed, and the Indonesian Balikpapan refinery is planning to expand its gasoline production [34][36]. - Sudan: The low - sulfur crude oil supply was briefly interrupted and then resumed. The low - sulfur crude oil has been redirected to the Pan - Singapore region [37][38]. - Nigeria: The low - sulfur export supply has increased more than expected. The Dangote refinery has adjusted its device maintenance plan, and the low - sulfur export is expected to increase significantly in December [39][41]. - Middle East: The return of the Al - Zour refinery's devices has been delayed, and there is still a short - term supply gap [42][44]. 3.2.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Demand - There is no specific driver. The marine fuel demand is stable, and the power generation economy is inferior to that of natural gas [45]. 3.2.5 China's Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Market - The bonded low - sulfur export quota in the fourth quarter has tightened. The overall quota in 2025 has slightly decreased compared to 2024. The quota usage rate as of October is about 81%, and the remaining quota in the fourth quarter is expected to be tight but still sufficient [50]. 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking 3.3.1 Fuel Oil Spot - There are charts showing the price trends of Brent crude oil, HSFO380, LSFO, and their spreads with Brent crude oil [54][55][57]. 3.3.2 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil Cross - Region and Cross - Period Spreads - There are charts showing spreads such as ARA Brent Crack, Singapore high - sulfur M1 - M2, and HSFO380 spot discounts [60][61][63]. 3.3.3 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Cross - Region and Cross - Variety Spreads - There are charts showing spreads such as Singapore LSFO - GO, LSFO M1 - M2, and Singapore low - sulfur spot discounts [67][68]. 3.3.4 Natural Gas - Fuel Oil Price Ratio - The report provides data on the equal - calorific - value price ratio of various fuels, including Singapore 380, Singapore 180, Singapore 0.5%, JKM, GO10ppm ARA, and TTF [70][71]. 3.3.5 Cross - Region Freight Reference - There are charts showing freight rates from Russia to Singapore, Rotterdam to Singapore, etc. [73][74]. 3.3.6 Singapore Bunkering Spreads - There are charts showing spreads such as Singapore HSFO Exwharf - MOPS and Singapore LSFO Exwharf - MOPS [76][77]. 3.3.7 Fuel Oil Inventory Structure - There are charts showing the inventory trends of fuel oil in Singapore, ARA, Fujairah, Japan, and the US [79][80][81]. 3.3.8 Northwest Europe Inventory Structure - There are charts showing the inventory trends of gasoline, diesel, and refined oil in ARA [86][87]. 3.3.9 US Gulf Inventory Structure - There are charts showing the inventory trends of gasoline, diesel, Cushing crude oil, and commercial crude oil in the US [89][90].