Report Industry Investment Rating - The report is bearish on the fuel oil market [3][8] Core观点 - This week, the 380 cracking spread weakened, the month spread oscillated at a low level, the basis oscillated at a low level, the high - sulfur cracking spread in Europe weakened, and the high - sulfur EW continued to strengthen. The 0.5% cracking spread in Singapore oscillated at a low level, the month spread oscillated at a historical low level, and the 5GO recovered as diesel weakened. In terms of inventory, Singapore's residual oil inventory increased, the high - sulfur floating storage decreased, the residual oil inventory in Fujairah decreased, the high - sulfur floating storage decreased significantly, the high - sulfur floating storage in Europe decreased slightly, and the high - sulfur floating storage in the US increased slightly. The low - sulfur floating storage in Singapore decreased, and the low - sulfur floating storage in Europe increased. Global residual oil entered the off - season for inventory accumulation. The external market cracking spread should pay attention to crude oil fluctuations, and there is no improvement in the spot market. The low - sulfur valuation is low but there is no driving force [3][8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data - From December 22 to 26, 2025, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 decreased by 5.21, the price of Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 decreased by 4.19, the Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 increased by 0.21, the Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1 decreased by 7.25, the Rotterdam VLSFO - GO M1 increased by 3.06, and the Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 increased by 1.02 [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data - From December 22 to 26, 2025, the price of Singapore 380cst M1 increased by 0.57, the price of Singapore 180cst M1 increased by 0.32, the price of Singapore VLSFO M1 increased by 1.22, the price of Singapore GO M1 decreased by 0.15, the Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 increased by 0.20, and the Singapore VLSFO - GO M1 increased by 2.33 [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data - From December 22 to 26, 2025, the FOB 380cst price and FOB VLSFO price data have no clear overall change trend, the 380 basis decreased from - 2.80 to - 1.60, and the high - sulfur and low - sulfur internal and external price difference data are incomplete [2] Domestic FU Data - From December 22 to 26, 2025, FU 01 increased by 27, FU 05 increased by 3, FU 09 increased by 2, FU 01 - 05 increased by 24, FU 05 - 09 increased by 1, and FU 09 - 01 decreased by 25 [2] Domestic LU Data - From December 22 to 26, 2025, LU 01 increased by 141, LU 05 decreased by 2, LU 09 increased by 1, LU 01 - 05 increased by 143, LU 05 - 09 decreased by 3, and LU 09 - 01 decreased by 140 [3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the high - sulfur cracking in Singapore oscillated, the monthly spread ran at a historical low, strengthened slightly on Friday, the basis weakened and then strengthened slightly on Friday. The HSFO cracking in Europe oscillated and weakened, and the EW oscillated. The 0.5% cracking in Singapore weakened, with the monthly spread and basis oscillating at low levels [3]. - In terms of inventory, there was a slight increase in Singapore residue, a slight decrease in high - sulfur floating storage, a slight increase in ARA residue, a significant increase in Fujairah residue, a decrease in high - sulfur floating storage, and a slight increase in EIA residue [3][4]. - With the strengthening expectation of Russia - Ukraine peace talks, the cracking of gasoline and diesel in the external market continued to decline this week, and the price difference between low - sulfur and diesel continued to rebound [4]. - After the fire at the Al Zour refinery on October 21 and its subsequent shutdown, the external low - sulfur market faces support, but the short - term strengthening space is limited. The global heavy oil has entered the off - season for inventory accumulation. The external cracking is subject to crude oil fluctuations, and there is no improvement on the spot side. FU01 should be treated bearishly. The low - sulfur valuation is low but lacks a driving force [4]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Fuel Oil Price Data - **Rotterdam**: From December 2 to December 8, 2025, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 increased from 348.23 to 349.63, with a change of 0.82; the price of Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 increased from 390.52 to 393.57, with a change of 1.90; other price indicators also had corresponding changes [1]. - **Singapore**: The price of Singapore 380cst M1 increased from 349.17 to 351.64, with a change of 2.60; the price of Singapore 180cst M1 increased from 356.17 to 359.58, with a change of 3.79; other price indicators also changed [1]. - **Singapore Fuel Oil Spot**: From December 2 to December 8, 2025, the FOB 380cst price increased from 337.62 to 343.53, with a change of 2.71; the FOB VLSFO price increased from 423.98 to 425.03, with a change of 3.30; other indicators also had corresponding changes [2]. - **Domestic FU**: The price of FU 01 increased from 2469 to 2508, with a change of 53; the price of FU 05 increased from 2532 to 2573, with a change of 48; other price indicators also changed [2]. - **Domestic LU**: The price of LU 01 increased from 3030 to 3071, with a change of 53; the price of LU 05 increased from 3053 to 3091, with a change of 54; other price indicators also changed [3]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - This week, the high - sulfur crack in Singapore fluctuated, the monthly spread ran at a historical low, strengthened slightly on Friday, the basis weakened and then strengthened slightly on Friday. The European HSFO crack fluctuated weakly and the EW spread fluctuated. The 0.5% crack in Singapore weakened, the monthly spread and basis fluctuated at a low level. In terms of inventory, Singapore residue oil had a slight inventory build - up, high - sulfur floating storage had a slight inventory draw - down, ARA residue oil had a slight inventory build - up, Fujairah residue oil had a significant inventory build - up, high - sulfur floating storage had an inventory draw - down, and EIA residue oil had a slight inventory build - up. With the increasing expectation of Russia - Ukraine peace talks, the crack spreads of gasoline and diesel in the external market continued to fall this week, and the price difference between low - sulfur fuel oil and diesel continued to rebound. After the Al Zour refinery shut - down due to a fire on October 21st, the external low - sulfur fuel oil was supported, but the short - term upside space was limited. The global heavy - oil market entered the off - season with inventory build - up, the external crack spreads were affected by crude oil price fluctuations, and there was no improvement in the spot market. FU01 should be treated bearishly. The valuation of low - sulfur fuel oil was low, but there was no driving force [5][6]. Group 3: Data Summary Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data | Type | 2025/12/01 | 2025/12/02 | 2025/12/03 | 2025/12/04 | 2025/12/05 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 | 352.55 | 348.23 | 348.42 | 347.85 | 348.81 | 0.96 | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 | 394.14 | 390.52 | 390.01 | 388.30 | 391.67 | 3.37 | | Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 | - 7.12 | - 7.51 | - 7.90 | - 8.06 | - 8.45 | - 0.39 | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1 | 645.54 | 645.64 | 632.71 | 632.46 | 648.64 | 16.18 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | - 251.40 | - 255.12 | - 242.70 | - 244.16 | - 256.97 | - 12.81 | | LGO - Brent M1 | 25.52 | 26.31 | 24.34 | 23.85 | 25.44 | 1.59 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 | 41.59 | 42.29 | 41.59 | 40.45 | 42.86 | 2.41 | [3] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data | Type | 2025/12/01 | 2025/12/02 | 2025/12/03 | 2025/12/04 | 2025/12/05 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Singapore 380cst M1 | 350.01 | 349.17 | 345.72 | 343.12 | 349.04 | 5.92 | | Singapore 180cst M1 | 358.26 | 356.17 | 350.42 | 350.87 | 355.79 | 4.92 | | Singapore VLSFO M1 | 425.66 | 424.47 | 419.63 | 418.98 | 421.83 | 2.85 | | Singapore Gasoil M1 | 85.73 | 84.91 | 83.93 | 83.91 | 84.31 | 0.40 | | Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 | - 7.95 | - 7.76 | - 7.87 | - 8.37 | - 7.76 | 0.61 | | Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | - 208.74 | - 203.86 | - 201.45 | - 201.95 | - 202.06 | - 0.11 | [3] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data | Type | 2025/12/01 | 2025/12/02 | 2025/12/03 | 2025/12/04 | 2025/12/05 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | 338.62 | 337.62 | 334.01 | 334.75 | - | - | | FOB VLSFO | 425.18 | 423.98 | 418.67 | 418.44 | - | - | | 380 basis | - 7.00 | - 8.10 | - 7.15 | - 5.70 | - | - | | High - sulfur domestic - foreign price difference | 6.1 | - 1.2 | - 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.4 | - 0.3 | | Low - sulfur domestic - foreign price difference | 1.2 | 1.0 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 5.1 | 2.3 | [4] Domestic FU Data | Type | 2025/12/01 | 2025/12/02 | 2025/12/03 | 2025/12/04 | 2025/12/05 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FU 01 | 2495 | 2469 | 2437 | 2442 | 2455 | 13 | | FU 05 | 2552 | 2532 | 2499 | 2505 | 2525 | 20 | | FU 09 | 2527 | 2504 | 2468 | 2476 | 2490 | 14 | | FU 01 - 05 | - 57 | - 63 | - 62 | - 63 | - 70 | - 7 | | FU 05 - 09 | 25 | 28 | 31 | 29 | 35 | 6 | | FU 09 - 01 | 32 | 35 | 31 | 34 | 35 | 1 | [4] Domestic LU Data | Type | 2025/12/01 | 2025/12/02 | 2025/12/03 | 2025/12/04 | 2025/12/05 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LU 01 | 3049 | 3030 | 3010 | 3009 | 3018 | 9 | | LU 05 | 3068 | 3053 | 3021 | 3029 | 3037 | 8 | | LU 09 | 3095 | 3086 | 3060 | 3062 | 3062 | 0 | | LU 01 - 05 | - 19 | - 23 | - 11 | - 20 | - 19 | 1 | | LU 05 - 09 | - 27 | - 33 | - 39 | - 33 | - 25 | 8 | | LU 09 - 01 | 46 | 56 | 50 | 53 | 44 | - 9 | [5]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the high - sulfur crack in Singapore oscillated, the monthly spread strengthened slightly, the basis weakened, the HSFO crack in Europe declined, and the EW strengthened. The 0.5% crack in Singapore rebounded, the monthly spread oscillated, and the basis oscillated at a low level. [3] - In terms of inventory, Singapore's residue oil had a slight de - stocking, ARA's residue oil had inventory accumulation, Fujeirah's residue oil had inventory accumulation, and EIA's residue oil inventory remained flat. [3] - The spread between high - and low - sulfur in the outer market rebounded. Singapore's high - sulfur was supported by EW and refinery purchases, but the spot basis weakened rapidly. It is in a short - term oscillating pattern, and the short - term downward space for low - sulfur is limited. [3][4] 3) Summary by Relevant Data Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data | Product | 2025/11/10 - 2025/11/14 Change | | --- | --- | | Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O Swap M1 | +4.64 [1] | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO Swap M1 | +8.27 [1] | | Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 | - 0.45 [1] | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | +22.41 [1] | | Rotterdam VLSFO - G O M1 | - 14.14 [1] | | LGO - Brent M1 | +1.34 [1] | | Rotterdam VLSFO - H SFO M1 | +3.63 [1] | Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data | Product | 2025/11/10 - 2025/11/14 Change | | --- | --- | | Singapore 380cst M1 | +4.77 [1] | | Singapore 180cst M1 | +5.78 [1] | | Singapore VLSFO M1 | +6.41 [1] | | Singapore GO M1 | +0.69 [1] | | Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 | - 0.24 [1] | | Singapore VLSFO - G O M1 | +1.30 [1] | Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data | Product | 2025/11/10 - 2025/11/14 Change | | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | +5.06 [2] | | FOB VLSFO | +6.84 [2] | | 380 Basis | +0.03 [2] | | High - sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread | +1.8 [2] | | Low - sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread | +1.6 [2] | Domestic FU Data | Product | 2025/11/10 - 2025/11/14 Change | | --- | --- | | FU 01 | +27 [2] | | FU 05 | +28 [2] | | FU 09 | +25 [2] | | FU 01 - 05 | - 1 [2] | | FU 05 - 09 | +3 [2] | | FU 09 - 01 | - 2 [2] | Domestic LU Data | Product | 2025/11/10 - 2025/11/14 Change | | --- | --- | | LU 01 | +76 [3] | | LU 05 | +53 [3] | | LU 09 | +46 [3] | | LU 01 - 05 | +23 [3] | | LU 05 - 09 | +7 [3] | | LU 09 - 01 | - 30 [3] |

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - OPEC and EIA monthly reports have raised oil production forecasts, leading to concerns about supply glut and dragging down oil prices. The marine fuel market has weak supply and demand, with pressure on shipments [3]. - The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market structure will remain at current levels. Although there is a stable inflow of shipments from the Middle East, healthy downstream marine fuel demand still supports the high - sulfur fuel oil market, and the price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils may narrow in the future. The price of FU2601 is expected to move in the range of 2580 - 2620, and LU2601 in the range of 3180 - 3220 [3]. - The supply side is affected by geopolitical risks, while demand is neutral. The bullish factors include Russia's fuel export restrictions and sanctions on Russian oil - related enterprises, while the bearish factors are the unproven optimistic demand and the pressure on upstream crude oil [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - The current situation of fuel oil: The fundamentals are bearish; the basis is neutral; the inventory is neutral; the price on the disk is neutral; the high - sulfur main position is short - biased, and the low - sulfur main position is long - biased [3]. - Futures prices: The FU main contract futures price dropped from 2695 to 2616, a decrease of 2.93%; the LU main contract futures price dropped from 3310 to 3213, also a decrease of 2.93% [5]. - Spot prices: The prices of various types of fuel oil in different regions have generally declined, with the largest decline of 4.09% in Middle East high - sulfur fuel oil, and the price of Singapore diesel increased by 2.04% [6]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - Term Concerns - Bullish factors: Russia's fuel export restrictions and sanctions on Russian oil - related enterprises [4]. - Bearish factors: The optimistic demand on the demand side remains to be verified, and upstream crude oil is under pressure [4]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - Fundamentals: OPEC and EIA monthly reports have raised oil production forecasts, leading to concerns about supply glut and dragging down oil prices. The marine fuel market has weak supply and demand, with pressure on shipments [3]. - Basis: The basis of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is - 16 yuan/ton, and that of low - sulfur fuel oil is 36 yuan/ton, with the spot being nearly flat to the futures [3]. - Inventory: Singapore's fuel oil inventory in the week of November 12 was 2087.9 million barrels, a decrease of 19 million barrels [3]. - Disk: The price is below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is flat [3]. - Main positions: The high - sulfur main position is short - biased with an increase in short positions, and the low - sulfur main position is long - biased with a shift from short to long [3]. 3.4 Spread Data - The report shows the historical data of the spread between high - and low - sulfur futures, but specific analysis is not provided [11]. 3.5 Inventory Data - Singapore's fuel oil inventory has fluctuated in recent months. As of November 12, it was 2087.9 million barrels, a decrease of 19 million barrels compared to the previous period [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the crack spread of high - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore fluctuated, the time spread strengthened slightly, and the basis weakened. The HSFO crack spread in Europe declined, and the EW spread strengthened this week. The 0.5% crack spread in Singapore rebounded, the time spread fluctuated, and the basis oscillated at a low level. In terms of inventory, the residue oil in Singapore decreased slightly, the residue oil in ARA and Fujairah increased, and the EIA residue oil inventory remained flat. The price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil in the external market rebounded. High - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore was supported by EW and refinery purchases, but the spot basis weakened rapidly. In the short term, it is in a fluctuating pattern, and the short - term downward space for low - sulfur fuel oil is limited [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data - From November 7th to 13th, 2025, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 changed by 0.44, the Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 changed by 0.57, the Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 changed by - 0.12, the Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1 changed by - 4.28, the Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 changed by 4.85, the LGO - Brent M1 remained unchanged (0.00), and the Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 changed by 0.13 [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data - During the same period, the price of Singapore 380cst M1 changed by - 13.01, the Singapore 180cst M1 changed by - 15.91, the Singapore VLSFO M1 changed by - 14.37, the Singapore Gasoil M1 changed by - 3.22, the Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 changed by - 0.16, and the Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 changed by 9.46 [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data - From November 7th to 13th, 2025, the FOB 380cst price changed by - 13.78, the FOB VLSFO price changed by - 14.44, the 380 basis changed by - 0.02, the high - sulfur internal - external price spread changed by - 1.3, and the low - sulfur internal - external price spread changed by 1.0 [2] Domestic FU Fuel Oil Futures Data - During this period, the price of FU 01 changed by - 98, FU 05 changed by - 81, FU 09 changed by - 63, FU 01 - 05 changed by - 17, FU 05 - 09 changed by - 18, and FU 09 - 01 changed by 35 [2] Domestic LU Fuel Oil Futures Data - From November 7th to 13th, 2025, the price of LU 01 changed by - 147, LU 05 changed by - 124, LU 09 changed by - 103, LU 01 - 05 changed by - 23, LU 05 - 09 changed by - 21, and LU 09 - 01 changed by 44 [3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Core Viewpoints - This week, the crack spread of Singapore 380 fuel oil strengthened slightly, the monthly spread declined month - on - month, and the basis fluctuated at a low level. The high - low sulfur price difference is at a historically low level. The crack spread of Singapore 0.5 low - sulfur fuel oil weakened, and the monthly spread and basis fluctuated at historically low levels. [3] - In terms of inventory, Singapore residue oil was de - stocked, the high - sulfur floating storage was higher than the historical average for the same period, and the low - sulfur floating storage increased slightly. Fujeirah's heavy - quality inventory increased significantly to 8,520 thousand tons, the high - sulfur floating storage was de - stocked but still at a historically high level year - on - year. ARA ports were de - stocked, and the inventory was at a historically low level year - on - year. [3][4] - In terms of logistics, the total arrival of domestic fuel oil remained flat, and the arrival of low - sulfur fuel oil strengthened slightly. Saudi Arabia's shipments declined month - on - month, and the UAE's shipments increased month - on - month. Recently, the weak fundamentals of low - sulfur fuel oil continued, and it is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation pattern. High - sulfur fuel oil has started to accumulate inventory globally. The crack spread of Singapore is still supported by procurement demand, but in the medium term, it faces downward pressure due to factors such as Russian sanctions. FU fluctuated mainly and weakened slightly this week. [4] 3) Summaries by Related Catalogs Rotterdam Fuel Oil | Product | 2025/10/24 | 2025/10/27 | 2025/10/28 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O Swap M1 | 400.88 | 400.43 | 389.26 | 2.73 | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO Swap M1 | 424.62 | 423.42 | 411.42 | 2.03 | | Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 | - 2.65 | - 2.15 | - 2.31 | 0.54 | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | 688.86 | 705.25 | 680.86 | 3.19 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | - 264.24 | - 281.83 | - 269.44 | - 1.16 | | LGO - Brent M1 | 28.32 | 30.55 | 28.62 | 0.32 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 | 23.74 | 22.99 | 22.16 | - 0.70 | [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap | Product | 2025/10/24 | 2025/10/27 | 2025/10/28 | 2025/10/29 | 2025/10/30 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Singapore 380cst M1 | 394.15 | 387.51 | 383.93 | 373.72 | 373.35 | - 0.37 | | Singapore 180cst M1 | 402.15 | 394.51 | 389.68 | 380.28 | 378.91 | - 1.37 | | Singapore VLSFO M1 | 448.43 | 446.68 | 443.72 | 438.46 | 443.70 | 5.24 | | Singapore Gasoil M1 | 90.28 | 90.91 | 91.15 | 89.63 | 90.58 | 0.95 | | Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 | - 3.30 | - 3.68 | - 3.23 | - 4.56 | - 4.63 | - 0.07 | | Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | - 219.64 | - 226.05 | - 230.79 | - 224.80 | - 226.59 | - 1.79 | [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot | Product | 2025/10/24 | 2025/10/27 | 2025/10/28 | 2025/10/29 | 2025/10/30 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | 392.86 | 387.02 | 383.42 | 372.68 | 372.56 | - 0.12 | | FOB VLSFO | 445.23 | 446.25 | 441.88 | 437.28 | 442.83 | 5.55 | | 380 Basis | - 1.35 | - 0.90 | - 1.15 | - 1.80 | - 1.95 | - 0.15 | | High - sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread | 7.9 | 8.1 | 10.2 | 10.4 | 9.1 | - 1.3 | | Low - sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread | 7.2 | 7.6 | 13.4 | 12.6 | 14.3 | 1.7 | [2] Domestic FU | Product | 2025/10/24 | 2025/10/27 | 2025/10/28 | 2025/10/29 | 2025/10/30 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FU 01 | 2814 | 2842 | 2818 | 2796 | 2751 | - 45 | | FU 05 | 2741 | 2772 | 2756 | 2744 | 2713 | - 31 | | FU 09 | 2663 | 2683 | 2675 | 2672 | 2657 | - 15 | | FU 01 - 05 | - | 70 | 62 | 52 | 38 | - 14 | | FU 05 - 09 | 78 | 89 | 81 | 72 | 56 | - 16 | | FU 09 - 01 | - 151 | - 159 | - 143 | - 124 | - 94 | 30 | [2] Domestic LU | Product | 2025/10/24 | 2025/10/27 | 2025/10/28 | 2025/10/29 | 2025/10/30 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LU 01 | 3224 | 3257 | 3273 | 3246 | 3255 | 9 | | LU 05 | 3230 | 3262 | 3237 | 3212 | 3223 | 11 | | LU 09 | 3235 | 3272 | 3262 | 3235 | 3237 | 2 | | LU 01 - 05 | - 6 | - 5 | 36 | 34 | 32 | - 2 | | LU 05 - 09 | - 5 | - 10 | - 25 | - 23 | - 14 | 9 | | LU 09 - 01 | 11 | 15 | - 11 | - 11 | - 18 | - 7 | [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - This week, the cracking of Singapore 380 fuel oil strengthened slightly, the monthly spread declined month-on-month, and the basis fluctuated at a low level. The high-low sulfur spread is at a historically low level year-on-year. The cracking of Singapore 0.5 low-sulfur fuel oil weakened, and the monthly spread and basis fluctuated at historically low levels. In terms of inventory, Singapore residual oil was destocked, the high-sulfur floating storage was higher than the historical average for the same period, and the low-sulfur floating storage increased slightly. Fujeirah's heavy inventory increased significantly to 8,520 thousand tons, the high-sulfur floating storage was destocked but still at a historically high level year-on-year. ARA ports were destocked, and the inventory was at a historically low level year-on-year. In terms of logistics, the total arrival of domestic fuel oil remained flat, and the arrival of low-sulfur fuel oil strengthened slightly. Saudi Arabia's shipments declined month-on-month, while the UAE's shipments increased month-on-month. Recently, the weak fundamentals of low-sulfur fuel oil continued, and it is expected to maintain a low-level fluctuation pattern. High-sulfur fuel oil has started to accumulate inventory globally. The cracking of Singapore fuel oil is still supported by purchasing demand, but it faces downward pressure in the medium term due to factors such as Russian sanctions. FU fluctuated mainly and weakened slightly this week [3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Rotterdam Fuel Oil Data - From October 21 - 27, 2025, for Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1, the price changed by -1.59; for Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1, it changed by -2.85; for Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1, it changed by 0.66; for Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1, it changed by 16.55; for Rotterdam VLSFO - GO M1, it changed by -19.40; for LGO - Brent M1, it changed by 2.23; for Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1, it changed by -1.26 [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Data - From October 21 - 27, 2025, for Singapore 380cst M1, the price changed by -6.64; for Singapore 180cst M1, it changed by -7.64; for Singapore VLSFO M1, it changed by -1.75; for Singapore GO M1, it changed by 0.63; for Singapore 380cst - Brent M1, it changed by 0.01; for Singapore VLSFO - GO M1, it changed by -6.41 [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot and Domestic FU Data - From October 21 - 27, 2025, for Singapore FOB 380cst, the price changed by -5.84; for FOB VLSFO, it changed by 1.02; for 380 basis, it changed by 0.45; for high-sulfur internal - external spread, it changed by 0.2; for low-sulfur internal - external spread, it changed by 0.4. For domestic FU 01, it changed by 28; for FU 05, it changed by 31; for FU 09, it changed by 20; for FU 01 - 05 (not fully available), the change situation is not clear; for FU 05 - 09, it changed by 11; for FU 09 - 01, it changed by -8 [2] Domestic LU Data - From October 21 - 27, 2025, for domestic LU 01, the price changed by 33; for LU 05, it changed by 32; for LU 09, it changed by 37; for LU 01 - 05, it changed by 1; for LU 05 - 09, it changed by -5; for LU 09 - 01, it changed by 4 [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The high - sulfur fuel oil market structure has shown signs of stabilization, with reduced supply pressure and marginal improvement in refinery demand. However, there is still resistance above the valuation due to potential seasonal consumption decline. The low - sulfur fuel oil market has limited supply pressure, and there are long - term substitution risks, but the downside space is also limited [5]. - For high - sulfur fuel oil, the short - term outlook is neutral, and the medium - term outlook is downward. For low - sulfur fuel oil, the short - term outlook is neutral, and the medium - term outlook is downward. It is recommended to go long on the FU2511 - 2512 spread at low prices (positive spread trading) [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - With the escalation of the geopolitical situation, crude oil prices rebounded this week, boosting the downstream energy sector. The fundamentals of high - sulfur fuel oil improved marginally, and the cancellation of some FU futures warehouse receipts strengthened the futures market structure. The weekly increase of the FU main contract was 4.36%, and that of the LU main contract was 1.9% [1]. Supply - **High - sulfur fuel oil**: In September, the expected shipments of high - sulfur fuel oil from Iran are 1280,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 50,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 460,000 tons; from Russia, 2.89 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 330,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 70,000 tons; from the Middle East, 2.5 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.26 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 1.12 million tons [2]. - **Low - sulfur fuel oil**: In September, the expected shipments of low - sulfur fuel oil from Nigeria are 530,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 220,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 530,000 tons; from Kuwait, 240,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 130,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 150,000 tons. Brazilian exports decreased significantly in September. In August, the domestic production of low - sulfur fuel oil for bonded use in Chinese refineries was 1.065 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 46,000 tons or 4.51%. Overall, the supply pressure of low - sulfur fuel oil is still limited [2]. Demand - Although the impact of US tariffs on shipping demand has not been fully reflected, there is still downward pressure on trade and shipping demand in the medium term. High - sulfur fuel oil demand in the marine fuel sector is more resilient, but the summer power generation demand has not exceeded the seasonal level. The demand for low - sulfur fuel oil in the marine fuel sector is average, and its market share is being gradually replaced [3]. Inventory - This week, the fuel oil inventory in Singapore was 22.804 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 10.26%; the fuel oil inventory in Zhoushan Port was 1.19 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 10.19% [4]. Strategy - **High - sulfur fuel oil**: Short - term neutral, medium - term downward. - **Low - sulfur fuel oil**: Short - term neutral, medium - term downward. - **Cross - variety**: None. - **Cross - period**: Go long on the FU2511 - 2512 spread at low prices (positive spread trading). - **Spot - futures**: None. - **Options**: None [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market is facing a supply surplus with no sign of tightening recently, leading to a narrowing of the spot price spread between low - sulfur and high - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore [3]. - The Russian fuel oil export ban may be extended, increasing the expectation of tight supply in the high - sulfur fuel oil market. Overnight, high - sulfur fuel oil was significantly stronger than crude oil and low - sulfur fuel oil under the background of rising oil prices. However, the Russian side has not confirmed it yet, and investors should control their positions and be cautious about chasing long positions [3]. - The price of FU2601 is expected to run in the range of 2840 - 2900, and LU2511 is expected to run in the range of 3380 - 3420 [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - The fundamentals of the fuel oil market are as follows: the Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market has a supply surplus (neutral); the spot price is at a premium to the futures price (positive); the Singapore fuel oil inventory increased by 120,000 barrels to 23.159 million barrels in the week of September 17 (neutral); the price is above the 20 - day line with the 20 - day line being flat (neutral); the high - sulfur main position is short and the short position is decreasing (negative), while the low - sulfur main position is long and the long position is decreasing (positive) [3]. - The expected price ranges are FU2601: 2840 - 2900, LU2511: 3380 - 3420 [3]. 3.2 Multi - Air Concerns - The market is driven by the resonance of supply affected by geopolitical risks and neutral demand. The risk points include the potential damage to OPEC+ internal unity and the escalation of war risks. The bullish factors are the possible extension of Russian fuel oil export restrictions, and the bearish factor is the possible intensification of sanctions against Russia [4]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - Fundamental aspects: Supply in the Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market is in surplus, and the price spread between low - sulfur and high - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore has narrowed [3]. - Basis: The basis of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is $127 per ton, and that of low - sulfur fuel oil is $55 per ton, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price [3]. - Inventory: Singapore's fuel oil inventory in the week of September 17 was 23.159 million barrels, an increase of 120,000 barrels [3]. - Disk: The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is flat [3]. - Main Position: High - sulfur main position is short and the short position is decreasing; low - sulfur main position is long and the long position is decreasing [3]. 3.4 Spread Data No specific content related to spread data analysis is provided other than the narrowing of the spot price spread between low - sulfur and high - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore [3]. 3.5 Inventory Data - Singapore fuel oil inventory data from July 9 to September 17 shows fluctuations. In the week of September 17, the inventory was 23.159 million barrels, an increase of 120,000 barrels from the previous week [3][8].