| | | 燃料油早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/07/22 | 2025/07/15 | 404.43 | 414.93 | 496.15 | 87.86 | -4.13 | -154.01 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/07/16 | 405.67 | 417.60 | 494.41 | 88.17 | -3.75 | -158.05 | | 2025/07/17 | 404.37 | 417.12 | 492.44 | 88.46 | -3.68 | -162.16 | | 2025/07/18 | 411.39 | 423.64 | 497.30 | 91.55 | -3.80 | -180.17 | | 2025/07/21 | 411.16 | 425.21 | 493.65 | 90.15 | -3.42 | -173.46 | | 变化 | -0.23 | 1.57 | -3.65 | -1.40 | 0.38 | 6.71 | 新 加 坡 燃 料 油 现 货 | 日期 | FOB 380cst | FOB VLSF ...

| 日期 | LU 01 | LU 05 | LU 09 | LU 01-05 | LU 05-09 | LU 09-01 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/07/11 | 3520 | 3451 | 3640 | 69 | -189 | 120 | | 2025/07/14 | 3583 | 3502 | 3694 | 81 | -192 | 111 | | 2025/07/15 | 3529 | 3451 | 3639 | 78 | -188 | 110 | | 2025/07/16 | 3546 | 3467 | 3630 | 79 | -163 | 84 | | 2025/07/17 | 3508 | 3446 | 3580 | 62 | -134 | 72 | | 变化 | -38 | -21 | -50 | -17 | 29 | -12 | | | | | 结论观点： 本周高硫裂解震荡下跌，近月月差下行，EW继续走弱。380 8-9月差走弱至1.75美金，基差走 弱后震荡，FU09内外小幅反弹，内盘交割货较多，维持宽松格局。新 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - This week, the high - sulfur crack spread fluctuated and declined, the near - month spread decreased, and the EW continued to weaken. The 380 8 - 9 month spread weakened to $1.75, the basis weakened and then fluctuated, the FU09 internal - external spread rebounded slightly, and the domestic delivery inventory was abundant, maintaining a loose pattern. [4] - The Singapore 0.5 crack spread declined slightly, the month spread weakened, and the 8 - 9 month spread fluctuated around $4.5. The LU internal - external spread weakened slightly and then fluctuated, with the 09 around $16. [4] - This week, Singapore's on - land inventory increased significantly. Under delivery pressure, the near - month contract was under pressure, and Saudi Arabia's shipments increased month - on - month. Recently, fuel oil exports from Iran and Iraq remained at a high level, Egypt's net imports reached a new high. Although the high - sulfur supply - demand is in the peak season, the East - West and internal - external spreads have dropped rapidly. The external low - sulfur valuation is high, and the LU internal - external spread is at a high level. Attention should be paid to domestic production. [5] - The Singapore Hi - 5 spread reached a new high this year, both 380cst and VLSFO weakened. The domestic FU internal - external spread rebounded slightly, and the LU valuation is high. The short - term valuation regression opportunity of FU - LU can be considered, with the risk of continuous weakening of the external 380cst. [5] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data - From July 10 to July 16, 2025, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSFO swap M1 changed by -$0.32, Rotterdam 0.5% VLSFO swap M1 changed by -$1.21, Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 changed by $0.52, Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1 changed by -$12.35, Rotterdam VLSFO - GO M1 changed by $11.14, LGO - Brent M1 changed by -$1.45, and Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 changed by -$0.89. [2] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data - From July 10 to July 16, 2025, the price of Singapore 380cst M1 changed by $1.24, Singapore 180cst M1 changed by $2.67, Singapore VLSFO M1 changed by -$1.74, Singapore GO M1 changed by $0.31, Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 changed by $0.69, and Singapore VLSFO - GO M1 changed by -$4.04. [2] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data - From July 10 to July 16, 2025, the FOB price of 380cst changed by $4.91, FOB VLSFO changed by -$5.18, the 380 basis changed by $1.55, the high - sulfur internal - external spread changed by $1.2, and the low - sulfur internal - external spread changed by -$2.6. [3] Domestic FU Data - From July 10 to July 16, 2025, FU 01 changed by 26, FU 05 changed by 16, FU 09 changed by 40, FU 01 - 05 changed by 10, FU 05 - 09 changed by - 24, and FU 09 - 01 changed by 14. [3] Domestic LU Data - From July 10 to July 16, 2025, LU 01 changed by 17, LU 05 changed by 16, LU 09 changed by - 9, LU 01 - 05 changed by 1, LU 05 - 09 changed by 25, and LU 09 - 01 changed by - 26. [4]