燃料油内外价差

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燃料油早报-20250904
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-04 01:07
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the high - sulfur cracking of Singapore 380cst fluctuated strongly, the near - month spread strengthened slightly, the basis rebounded, and the EW spread continued to rebound. Affected by the impact of US sanctions on the delivery warehouse, FU10 rose sharply and then fell. The low - sulfur cracking weakened, the spread fluctuated, the LU internal - external spread fluctuated around $10, and the MF0.5 basis began to rebound [3][4]. - Fundamentally, Singapore's residue inventory increased, floating storage decreased, ARA's residue inventory remained flat, floating storage inventory increased significantly, and EIA residue began to accumulate. The global supply - demand of high - sulfur fuel oil weakened. Due to the reshaping of logistics, the demand for high - sulfur marine fuel in Singapore provided support, and the EW spread was still being repaired. The domestic high - sulfur spot was still in excess, and over - heated sentiment should be vigilant. The new round of sanctions had a large potential impact on the domestic heavy crude oil supply, providing some support for the Asian fuel oil valuation [4]. - This week, LU maintained a volatile trend, and the external MF0.5 basis began to rebound. Opportunities for the spread between low - sulfur and high - sulfur fuel oil to widen in the fourth quarter could be focused on [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Fuel Oil Price Data - **Rotterdam Fuel Oil Data**: From August 28 to September 3, the prices of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 decreased by $8.64, Rotterdam 0.5% VLSFO swap M1 decreased by $8.39, and other price - related indicators also had corresponding changes [1]. - **Singapore Fuel Oil Data**: The prices of Singapore 380cst M1 and other related fuel oil products also changed during the same period. For example, from August 28 to September 3, the price of Singapore 380cst M1 decreased by $11.56, and the price of Singapore VLSFO M1 decreased by $11.75 [1][9]. - **Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data**: From August 28 to September 3, the FOB 380cst price decreased by $6.17, and the FOB VLSFO price decreased by $6.40 [2]. - **Domestic FU Data**: From August 28 to September 3, the price of FU 01 decreased by 7, the price of FU 05 decreased by 10, and the price of FU 09 decreased by 8 [2]. - **Domestic LU Data**: From August 28 to September 3, the price of LU 01 decreased by 17, the price of LU 05 decreased by 10, and the price of LU 09 increased by 13 [3].
燃料油早报-20250902
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-02 04:16
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the high - sulfur cracking of Singapore 380cst oscillated strongly, the near - month spread strengthened slightly, the basis rebounded, and the EW spread continued to rebound. Affected by the impact of US sanctions on delivery warehouses, FU10 soared and then declined. The low - sulfur cracking weakened, the spread oscillated, the LU internal - external spread fluctuated around 10 US dollars, and the MF0.5 basis began to rebound [4]. - Fundamentally, Singapore's residue inventory increased, floating storage decreased, ARA's residue inventory remained flat, floating storage inventory increased significantly, and EIA's residue began to accumulate. The global supply - demand of high - sulfur fuel oil weakened. Due to the reshaping of logistics, the demand for high - sulfur marine fuel in Singapore provided support, the EW spread was still being repaired, and the domestic high - sulfur spot was still in excess. Be vigilant against over - heating sentiment. The new round of sanctions has a large potential impact on the supply of heavy crude oil in China, providing some support for the valuation of Asian fuel oil. This week, LU maintained an oscillation, the external MF0.5 basis began to rebound, and the opportunity for the low - sulfur to high - sulfur spread to widen in the fourth quarter can be noted [5]. 3. Data Summaries Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data | Type | 2025/08/26 | 2025/09/01 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O Swap M1 | 383.86 | 388.11 | - 0.95 | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO Swap M1 | 452.63 | 456.37 | 0.00 | | Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 | - 6.45 | - 6.40 | - 0.26 | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | 651.89 | 658.54 | 4.38 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | - 199.26 | - 202.17 | - 4.38 | | LGO - Brent M1 | 22.75 | 22.05 | - 0.10 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 | 68.77 | 68.26 | 0.95 | [2] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data | Type | 2025/08/26 | 2025/09/01 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Singapore 380cst M1 | 397.90 | 398.02 | - 3.14 | | Singapore 180cst M1 | 410.84 | 412.08 | - 4.08 | | Singapore VLSFO M1 | 487.99 | 482.37 | - 3.40 | | Singapore Gasoil M1 | 86.31 | 85.23 | - 0.71 | | Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 | - 5.01 | - 4.43 | 0.05 | | Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | - 150.70 | - 148.33 | 1.86 | [2] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data | Type | 2025/08/26 | 2025/09/01 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | 396.25 | 397.89 | - 1.96 | | FOB VLSFO | 489.51 | 485.45 | - 2.60 | | 380 Basis | - 2.00 | - 0.40 | 0.70 | | High - sulfur Internal - external Spread | 4.1 | 6.0 | 3.6 | | Low - sulfur Internal - external Spread | 9.5 | 14.9 | 6.9 | [3] Domestic FU Data | Type | 2025/08/26 | 2025/09/01 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FU 01 | 2842 | 2824 | 12 | | FU 05 | 2799 | 2782 | 9 | | FU 09 | 2827 | 2737 | 2 | | FU 01 - 05 | 43 | 42 | 3 | | FU 05 - 09 | - 28 | 45 | 7 | | FU 09 - 01 | - 15 | - 87 | - 10 | [3] Domestic LU Data | Type | 2025/08/26 | 2025/09/01 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LU 01 | 3488 | 3451 | - 28 | | LU 05 | 3451 | 3398 | - 37 | | LU 09 | 3460 | 3374 | 62 | | LU 01 - 05 | 37 | 53 | 9 | | LU 05 - 09 | - 9 | 24 | - 99 | | LU 09 - 01 | - 28 | - 77 | 90 | [4]
燃料油早报-20250827
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-27 06:18
Report Overview Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - This week, the high - sulfur cracking of Singapore 380cst weakened, and the near - month spread weakened (9 - 10 at 0.75 USD/ton, 10 - 11 at 3.25 USD/ton). The LU maintained a weak trend, with the external MF0.5 basis oscillating at a low level and LU internal - external spread oscillating. The low - sulfur cracking weakened, and the spread oscillated (9 - 10 at 2 USD/ton, 10 - 11 at 2.75 USD/ton). The LU internal - external spread strengthened slightly to 10 USD. [5][6] - Fundamentally, Singapore's land - based residue inventory continued to decline, floating storage inventory decreased significantly, and low - sulfur floating storage increased. In July, Singapore's high - sulfur bunkering volume increased by 15% month - on - month and 10% year - on - year. The land - based inventory in Fujairah, Middle East decreased significantly, and floating storage decreased significantly. This week, Saudi Arabia's shipments decreased month - on - month, and UAE's shipments oscillated. The US residue inventory increased slightly but remained at the lowest level in the same period of history, ARA ports decreased slightly, and floating storage increased slightly. [6] - The global supply - demand of high - sulfur fuel oil weakened. Due to logistics reshaping, the demand for high - sulfur marine fuel in Singapore provided support, and the EW spread was still being repaired. The FU delivery volume was still relatively large, and attention should be paid to subsequent delivery changes. The new round of sanctions had a relatively large potential impact on domestic heavy crude oil, providing some support for Asian fuel oil valuation. In the short term, opportunities for the expansion of high - sulfur 380 EW could still be monitored. [6] Data Summary Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data | Name | Price on 2025/08/20 | Price on 2025/08/26 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O Swap M1 | 386.27 | 382.78 | - 11.30 | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO Swap M1 | 447.87 | 451.36 | - 9.65 | | Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 | - 5.40 | - 6.40 | - 0.35 | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | 647.20 | 652.30 | - 15.02 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | - 199.33 | - 200.94 | 5.37 | | LGO - Brent M1 | 22.39 | 22.75 | - 0.40 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 | 61.60 | 68.58 | 1.65 | [3] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data | Name | Price on 2025/08/20 | Price on 2025/08/26 | | --- | --- | --- | | Singapore 380cst M1 | 388.83 | 393.61 | | Singapore 180cst M1 | 402.12 | 407.23 | | Singapore VLSFO M1 | 475.48 | 480.94 | | Singapore Gasoil M1 | 84.72 | 85.48 | | Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 | - 4.63 | - 4.69 | | Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | - 151.45 | - 151.61 | [3] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data | Name | Price on 2025/08/20 | Price on 2025/08/26 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | 386.10 | 396.25 | - 0.90 | | FOB VLSFO | 474.94 | 489.51 | 1.10 | | 380 Basis | - 2.65 | - 2.00 | 0.55 | | High - sulfur Internal - External Spread | - 1.8 | 4.1 | - 0.4 | | Low - sulfur Internal - External Spread | 8.9 | 9.5 | - 1.1 | [4] Domestic FU Data | Name | Price on 2025/08/20 | Price on 2025/08/26 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FU 01 | 2719 | 2842 | 11 | | FU 05 | 2712 | 2799 | 9 | | FU 09 | 2687 | 2827 | - 18 | | FU 01 - 05 | 7 | 43 | 2 | | FU 05 - 09 | 25 | - 28 | 27 | | FU 09 - 01 | - 32 | - 15 | - 29 | [4] Domestic LU Data | Name | Price on 2025/08/20 | Price on 2025/08/26 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LU 01 | 3411 | 3488 | - 3 | | LU 05 | 3376 | 3451 | 2 | | LU 09 | 3422 | 3460 | 57 | | LU 01 - 05 | 35 | 37 | - 5 | | LU 05 - 09 | - 46 | - 9 | - 55 | | LU 09 - 01 | 11 | - 28 | 60 | [5]
永安期货燃料油早报-20250826
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-26 14:46
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the high - sulfur cracking of Singapore 380cst weakened, the near - month spread weakened (9 - 10 at 0.75 USD/ton, 10 - 11 at 3.25 USD/ton), the basis rebounded, and the EW spread continued to rebound. Affected by the new round of US sanctions on Iran (covering Dongjiakou and Yangshan Shengang), the near - month internal and external spread of FU fluctuated greatly, and the 09 contract once returned above par. The low - sulfur cracking weakened, the spread oscillated (9 - 10 at 2 USD/ton, 10 - 11 at 2.75 USD/ton), and the LU internal and external spread strengthened slightly to 10 USD. [5][6] - Fundamentally, Singapore's land - based residue inventory continued to decline, floating storage inventory decreased significantly, and low - sulfur floating storage increased. Singapore's high - sulfur bunkering volume in July increased by 15% month - on - month and 10% year - on - year. The land - based inventory in Fujairah, Middle East decreased significantly, and floating storage decreased significantly. This week, Saudi Arabia's shipments decreased month - on - month, and UAE's shipments oscillated. US residue inventory increased slightly but was at the lowest level in the same period in history, ARA ports decreased slightly, and floating storage increased slightly. [6] - The global supply - demand of high - sulfur fuel oil weakened. Due to the reshaping of logistics, the demand for high - sulfur marine fuel in Singapore provided support, the EW spread was still recovering, and the delivery volume of FU was still relatively large. Attention should be paid to subsequent delivery changes. The new round of sanctions had a large potential impact on domestic heavy crude oil, providing some support for Asian fuel oil valuation. This week, LU remained weak, the basis of external MF0.5 oscillated at a low level, and LU internal and external prices oscillated. In the short term, opportunities for the expansion of high - sulfur 380 EW could still be focused on. [6] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Rotterdam Fuel Oil Data - From August 19 to August 25, 2025, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 increased by 4.01, Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 increased by 6.04, Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 decreased by 0.41, Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1 increased by 8.62, Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 decreased by 2.58, LGO - Brent M1 increased by 0.11, and Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 increased by 2.03. [3] Singapore Fuel Oil Data - From August 19 to August 25, 2025, the price of Singapore 380cst M1 increased by 9.69, Singapore 180cst M1 increased by 11.54, Singapore VLSFO M1 increased by 8.51, Singapore Gasoil M1 increased by 1.10, Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 increased by 0.42, and Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 increased by 0.37. [3] - For Singapore fuel oil spot, from August 19 to August 25, 2025, FOB 380cst increased by 6.57, FOB VLSFO increased by 5.85, 380 basis decreased by 0.80, high - sulfur internal and external spread increased by 3.7, and low - sulfur internal and external spread remained unchanged. [4] Domestic FU Data - From August 19 to August 25, 2025, FU 01 increased by 62, FU 05 increased by 42, FU 09 increased by 109, FU 01 - 05 increased by 20, FU 05 - 09 decreased by 67, and FU 09 - 01 increased by 47. [4] Domestic LU Data - From August 19 to August 25, 2025, LU 01 increased by 29, LU 05 increased by 65, LU 09 decreased by 65, LU 01 - 05 decreased by 36, LU 05 - 09 increased by 130, and LU 09 - 01 decreased by 94. [5]
燃料油早报-20250725
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-07-25 09:11
Report Overview - The report is a Fuel Oil Morning Report from the Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center, dated July 25, 2025 [3] Report Core View - This week, the high - sulfur crack spread oscillated downward, the near - month spread declined, and EW continued to weaken. The 380 8 - 9 month spread weakened to $1.75, the basis weakened and then oscillated, the FU09 internal - external spread rebounded slightly, and the domestic market had a large amount of delivery goods, maintaining a loose pattern. The Singapore 0.5 crack spread declined slightly, the month spread weakened, and the 8 - 9 month spread oscillated around $4.5. The LU internal - external spread weakened slightly and then oscillated, with the 09 spread oscillating around $16. Singapore's on - land inventory increased significantly this week, the near - month was under pressure due to delivery, and Saudi shipments increased month - on - month. Recently, fuel oil exports from Iran and Iraq remained at a high level, Egypt's net imports reached a new high, and the high - sulfur supply - demand was still in the peak season, but the East - West and internal - external spreads had dropped rapidly. The external low - sulfur valuation was high, and the LU internal - external spread was at a high level. Attention should be paid to domestic production. The Singapore Hi - 5 spread reached a new high this year, both 380cst and VLSFO weakened, the domestic FU internal - external spread rebounded slightly, the LU valuation was high, and short - term valuation regression opportunities for FU - LU could be considered [6][7] Data Summary Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data | Product | Change (July 18 - July 24) | |--|--| | Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O Swap M1 | +5.46 | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO Swap M1 | +5.46 | | Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 | - 0.35 | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | - 2.31 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | +7.77 | | LGO - Brent M1 | - 0.77 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 | 0.00 | [4] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data | Product | Change (July 18 - July 24) | |--|--| | Singapore 380cst M1 | +1.49 | | Singapore 180cst M1 | - 3.82 | | Singapore VLSFO M1 | +0.92 | | Singapore Gasoil M1 | +0.63 | | Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 | - 0.31 | | Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | - 3.74 | [4] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data | Product | Change (July 18 - July 24) | |--|--| | FOB 380cst | +2.14 | | FOB VLSFO | +0.27 | | 380 Basis | - 1.00 | | High - Sulfur Internal - External Spread | +0.4 | | Low - Sulfur Internal - External Spread | +0.6 | [5] Domestic FU Data | Product | Change (July 18 - July 24) | |--|--| | FU 01 | +10 | | FU 05 | +15 | | FU 09 | 0 | | FU 01 - 05 | - 5 | | FU 05 - 09 | +15 | | FU 09 - 01 | - 10 | [5] Domestic LU Data | Product | Change (July 18 - July 24) | |--|--| | LU 01 | +31 | | LU 05 | - 6 | | LU 09 | +22 | | LU 01 - 05 | +37 | | LU 05 - 09 | - 28 | | LU 09 - 01 | - 9 | [6]
燃料油早报-20250718
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-07-18 02:00
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the high - sulfur crack spread fluctuated downward, the near - month spread declined, and the EW continued to weaken. The 380 8 - 9 month spread weakened to $1.75, the basis weakened and then fluctuated, the FU09 domestic - foreign spread rebounded slightly, the domestic delivery volume was large, and the supply remained loose. The Singapore 0.5 crack spread declined slightly, the month spread weakened, and the 8 - 9 month spread fluctuated around $4.5. The LU domestic - foreign spread weakened slightly and then fluctuated, with LU09 fluctuating around $16. [4][5] - This week, Singapore's on - land inventory increased significantly. Due to delivery pressure on the window, the near - month contract was under pressure, and Saudi Arabia's shipments increased month - on - month. Recently, fuel oil exports from Iran and Iraq remained at a high level, Egypt's net imports reached a new high. Although the high - sulfur supply and demand are in the peak season, the East - West and domestic - foreign spreads have dropped rapidly. The foreign low - sulfur valuation is high, and the LU domestic - foreign spread is running at a high level. Attention should be paid to the domestic production situation. [5] - Singapore's Hi - 5 spread reached a new high this year, both 380cst and VLSFO weakened. The domestic FU domestic - foreign spread rebounded slightly, and the LU valuation is high. Attention can be paid to the short - term valuation regression opportunity of FU - LU, with the risk being the continuous weakening of the foreign 380cst. [5] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data - From July 11 to July 17, 2025, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 changed by $4.57, Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 changed by $3.93, Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 changed by - $0.25, Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1 changed by $18.74, Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 changed by - $14.81, LGO - Brent M1 changed by $1.35, and Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 changed by - $0.64. [2] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data - From July 11 to July 17, 2025, the price of Singapore 380cst M1 changed by - $1.30, Singapore 180cst M1 changed by - $0.48, Singapore VLSFO M1 changed by - $1.97, Singapore GO M1 changed by $0.29, Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 changed by $0.07, and Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 changed by - $4.11. [2] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data - From July 11 to July 17, 2025, the FOB 380cst price changed by - $2.82, FOB VLSFO changed by $1.27, the 380 basis changed by - $0.79, the high - sulfur domestic - foreign spread changed by - $0.4, and the low - sulfur domestic - foreign spread changed by - $0.5. [3] Domestic FU Data - From July 11 to July 17, 2025, FU 01 changed by - 5, FU 05 changed by - 10, FU 09 changed by - 17, FU 01 - 05 changed by 5, FU 05 - 09 changed by 7, and FU 09 - 01 changed by - 12. [3] Domestic LU Data - From July 11 to July 17, 2025, LU 01 changed by - 38, LU 05 changed by - 21, LU 09 changed by - 50, LU 01 - 05 changed by - 17, LU 05 - 09 changed by 29, and LU 09 - 01 changed by - 12. [4]
燃料油早报-20250717
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-07-17 13:13
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - This week, the high - sulfur crack spread fluctuated and declined, the near - month spread decreased, and the EW continued to weaken. The 380 8 - 9 month spread weakened to $1.75, the basis weakened and then fluctuated, the FU09 internal - external spread rebounded slightly, and the domestic delivery inventory was abundant, maintaining a loose pattern. [4] - The Singapore 0.5 crack spread declined slightly, the month spread weakened, and the 8 - 9 month spread fluctuated around $4.5. The LU internal - external spread weakened slightly and then fluctuated, with the 09 around $16. [4] - This week, Singapore's on - land inventory increased significantly. Under delivery pressure, the near - month contract was under pressure, and Saudi Arabia's shipments increased month - on - month. Recently, fuel oil exports from Iran and Iraq remained at a high level, Egypt's net imports reached a new high. Although the high - sulfur supply - demand is in the peak season, the East - West and internal - external spreads have dropped rapidly. The external low - sulfur valuation is high, and the LU internal - external spread is at a high level. Attention should be paid to domestic production. [5] - The Singapore Hi - 5 spread reached a new high this year, both 380cst and VLSFO weakened. The domestic FU internal - external spread rebounded slightly, and the LU valuation is high. The short - term valuation regression opportunity of FU - LU can be considered, with the risk of continuous weakening of the external 380cst. [5] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data - From July 10 to July 16, 2025, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSFO swap M1 changed by -$0.32, Rotterdam 0.5% VLSFO swap M1 changed by -$1.21, Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 changed by $0.52, Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1 changed by -$12.35, Rotterdam VLSFO - GO M1 changed by $11.14, LGO - Brent M1 changed by -$1.45, and Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 changed by -$0.89. [2] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data - From July 10 to July 16, 2025, the price of Singapore 380cst M1 changed by $1.24, Singapore 180cst M1 changed by $2.67, Singapore VLSFO M1 changed by -$1.74, Singapore GO M1 changed by $0.31, Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 changed by $0.69, and Singapore VLSFO - GO M1 changed by -$4.04. [2] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data - From July 10 to July 16, 2025, the FOB price of 380cst changed by $4.91, FOB VLSFO changed by -$5.18, the 380 basis changed by $1.55, the high - sulfur internal - external spread changed by $1.2, and the low - sulfur internal - external spread changed by -$2.6. [3] Domestic FU Data - From July 10 to July 16, 2025, FU 01 changed by 26, FU 05 changed by 16, FU 09 changed by 40, FU 01 - 05 changed by 10, FU 05 - 09 changed by - 24, and FU 09 - 01 changed by 14. [3] Domestic LU Data - From July 10 to July 16, 2025, LU 01 changed by 17, LU 05 changed by 16, LU 09 changed by - 9, LU 01 - 05 changed by 1, LU 05 - 09 changed by 25, and LU 09 - 01 changed by - 26. [4]
燃料油早报-20250715
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-07-15 08:12
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the high - sulfur crack spread fluctuated and declined, the near - month spread decreased, and the EW continued to weaken. The 380 8 - 9 month spread weakened to $1.75, the basis weakened and then fluctuated, the FU09 internal - external spread rebounded slightly, and the domestic delivery inventory was abundant, maintaining a loose pattern. [4] - The Singapore 0.5 crack spread declined slightly, the month spread weakened, and it fluctuated around $4.5 for the 8 - 9 month spread. The LU internal - external spread weakened slightly and then fluctuated, with the 09 around $16. [4][5] - This week, Singapore's on - land inventory increased significantly, the near - month contract was under pressure due to delivery, and Saudi Arabia's shipments increased month - on - month. Recently, fuel oil exports from Iran and Iraq remained at a high level, Egypt's net imports reached a new high, and the high - sulfur supply - demand is still in the peak season, but the East - West and internal - external spreads have dropped rapidly. The external low - sulfur valuation is high, and the LU internal - external spread is running at a high level. Pay attention to domestic production. [5] - The Singapore Hi - 5 spread reached a new high this year, both 380cst and VLSFO weakened. The domestic FU internal - external spread rebounded slightly, the LU valuation is high, and the short - term valuation regression opportunity of FU - LU can be considered. The risk lies in the continuous weakening of the external 380cst. [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Tables Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Prices - The prices of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1, 0.5% VLSFO swap M1, etc. showed different changes from July 8 to July 14, 2025. For example, the Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 decreased by $10.28. [2] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Prices - The prices of Singapore 380cst M1, 180cst M1, VLSFO M1, etc. also changed during the same period. For instance, the Singapore 380cst M1 decreased by $10.33 from July 8 - 14. [2] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Prices - From July 8 to July 14, 2025, the FOB 380cst price decreased by $1.83, while the FOB VLSFO price increased by $9.94. The 380 basis weakened, the high - sulfur internal - external spread increased by $1.7, and the low - sulfur internal - external spread increased by $0.1. [3] Domestic FU Futures Prices - The prices of FU 01, FU 05, and FU 09 contracts changed from July 8 to July 14, 2025. For example, FU 01 increased by 28 points, and the spreads between different contracts also changed. [3] Domestic LU Futures Prices - The prices of LU 01, LU 05, and LU 09 contracts changed during the same period. LU 01 increased by 63 points, and the spreads between different contracts also had corresponding changes. [4]
永安期货燃料油早报-2025-04-02
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-04-02 07:33
Report Key Points 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the cracking spread of high - sulfur fuel oil in the outer market fluctuated, the 380 - grade monthly spread weakened, the 380 - grade basis fluctuated at a high level, and there was pressure on the inside - outer market of FU. In terms of fundamentals, there was a significant inventory build - up in Singapore, a drawdown in ARA, an inventory build - up in EIA onshore, an increase in floating storage, a significant drawdown in high - sulfur floating storage in the Middle East, a drawdown in both onshore and floating storage in Fujairah, and a drawdown in floating storage in Singapore. Saudi Arabia's shipments rebounded month - on - month, while the UAE's shipments decreased month - on - month. In 2025, attention should be paid to the increase in global heavy - oil valuation due to sanctions on Iran. In the Asian region, attention should be paid to whether Russian supply will return to the benchmark. Recently, the decline in floating storage in the Middle East and the onshore inventory build - up in Singapore have put pressure on the near - term monthly spread of 380 - grade fuel oil. For low - sulfur fuel oil, the situation in Singapore is weak. This week, the basis fluctuated at a low level, and the inside - outer price spread also fluctuated at a low level. Global heavy - oil supply remains tight, and the supply of 380 - grade standard products is still tight. If the window rules remain unchanged, the inside - outer market is expected to remain weak in summer, and the domestic market will fluctuate around the fundamentals of downstream demand. [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Rotterdam Market - The prices of Rotterdam 3.5% HSFO swap M1, Rotterdam 0.5% VLSFO swap M1, Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1, Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1, Rotterdam VLSFO - GO M1, LGO - Brent M1, and Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 changed by - 3.35, 1.41, - 0.23, - 3.47, 4.88, - 0.25, and 4.76 respectively from March 26 to April 1 [1]. Singapore Market - In the Singapore market, the prices of Singapore 380cst M1, Singapore 180cst M1, Singapore VLSFO M1, Singapore GO M1, Singapore 380cst - Brent M1, and Singapore VLSFO - GO M1 changed by 3.09, 2.09, 5.88, 0.64, - 0.08, and 2.95 respectively from March 26 to April 1. For Singapore fuel oil spot, the FOB 380cst, FOB VLSFO, 380 basis, high - sulfur inside - outer spread, and low - sulfur inside - outer spread had corresponding price changes, with the high - sulfur inside - outer spread changing by - 0.9 and the low - sulfur inside - outer spread changing by 1.0 [1]. Domestic Market - In the domestic FU market, the prices of FU 01, FU 05, FU 09, FU 01 - 05, FU 05 - 09, and FU 09 - 01 changed by 71, 102, 89, - 31, 13, and 18 respectively from March 26 to April 1. In the domestic LU market, the prices of LU 01, LU 05, LU 09, LU 01 - 05, LU 05 - 09, and LU 09 - 01 changed by 100, 99, 112, 1, - 13, and 12 respectively from March 26 to April 1 [1].