1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In terms of refinery operations and production, previously shut - down refineries have resumed operations, and refinery utilization rates around the world have gradually risen to their annual highs, leading to a further increase in global fuel oil production. On the demand side, the marine fuel market has been lackluster, the power generation demand in the Middle East has seasonally weakened, and the feedstock demand in China and India has yet to recover [6]. - In terms of absolute prices, fuel oil prices around the world continued to decline during the month, but the weakness of high - sulfur fuel oil has diminished, and its cracking performance has been relatively stronger than that of low - sulfur fuel oil. In terms of the price spread between months, the abundant or even excessive supply of near - term spot has continued to suppress the valuation of near - term contracts, resulting in a contango structure in the price spread between months [6]. - For high - sulfur fuel oil, the export volume from the Middle East decreased in December, but production remained high. According to shipping data, exports are expected to increase significantly in January, with the Asia - Pacific region likely to be the main destination, and Singapore's prices are expected to remain weak. Currently, the only shortages in the world are in Russia and Latin America. Russian refineries have been attacked, leading to a continued decline in the country's processing volume, and the geopolitical conflict in Venezuela will lead to a decline in the output of high - sulfur heavy oil in Latin America, which will support high - sulfur prices in the Western Hemisphere at least [6]. - For low - sulfur fuel oil, Brazil's exports are slowly recovering, and Kuwait's Al Zour refinery has begun to restart gradually, which will gradually fill the supply gap of low - sulfur fuel oil in the Asia - Pacific region and is expected to put downward pressure on prices in the future. However, it should be noted that the RFCC unit of Nigeria's Dangote refinery is expected to resume operations in late January, after which its low - sulfur heavy oil exports will gradually decline; in addition, the low - sulfur arbitrage window from Northwest Europe to Singapore is gradually narrowing, further suppressing the east - west arbitrage logistics [6]. - Overall, high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to show a weak and volatile trend in January. The Middle East will continue to be the main supplier of high - sulfur fuel oil in the Asia - Pacific region. Unless Russia's exports decline unexpectedly, prices will still be difficult to break out of the weak situation. Some positive factors on the supply side of low - sulfur fuel oil are beginning to reverse, and its previous strength relative to high - sulfur fuel oil will weaken [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Global Fuel Oil Spot Prices and Spreads - **Price and Spread Fluctuations**: The FOB prices of 3.5% fuel oil in Singapore and Fujeirah increased by 0.54% and 2.45% respectively, while those in other regions mostly decreased. The FOB prices of 0.5% fuel oil in most regions decreased, with Singapore down 4.44%. Among the spreads, the high - sulfur cracking spreads in Singapore and Fujeirah increased by 27.51% and 26.99% respectively, while the low - sulfur cracking spread in the US Gulf decreased by 108.04% [8]. - **Regional Price Trends**: The report presents historical price trends of fuel oil in Asia - Pacific, the Middle East, Northwest Europe, the Mediterranean, the United States, and the feedstock market in Europe and the United States through various charts [11][17][22][28][30]. - **Arbitrage and Grade Spreads**: It shows the historical trends of regional arbitrage and grade spreads of fuel oil, such as the high - and low - sulfur spread in Singapore, the viscosity spread, and the arbitrage margins between different regions [52]. - **Spot Premium and Discounts**: Presents the historical trends of spot premium and discounts in the Asia - Pacific and Middle East regions, including the premium and discounts of different grades in Singapore, the Arabian Gulf, and Fujeirah [54]. - **Cracking Spreads**: Displays the historical cracking spreads of fuel oil in major global markets, including Asia - Pacific, the Middle East, Europe, and the United States [60][66]. - **Fuel Oil Swap Market Term Structure**: Shows the historical term structure of the fuel oil swap market, including the price differences between different months of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and Northwest Europe [72]. 3.2 Global Main Region Fuel Oil Supply Situation - **Refinery Utilization**: Presents the historical refinery utilization rates in Northeast Asia, the Middle East, South Asia, Latin America, and Europe and the United States, including China, Japan, South Korea, Saudi Arabia, Iran, and other countries [77][84][87]. - **Refinery Maintenance**: Shows the historical maintenance volumes of major global refining units, including CDU, hydrocracking, FCC, and coking units [89]. - **Production Changes**: Displays the historical production changes of fuel oil in major global producing countries, such as China, India, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and others [96][98][102]. 3.3 Global Main Region Fuel Oil Demand Situation - **Regional Demand**: Presents the historical fuel oil demand in regions such as China, the Middle East, Asia - Pacific, Latin America, the Commonwealth of Independent States, Europe, and Africa [105]. - **Singapore Marine Fuel Market**: Shows the historical sales of fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, high - sulfur fuel oil, and marine diesel in the Singapore marine fuel market [117]. 3.4 Global High - and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Logistics - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Presents the historical weekly and monthly import and export volumes of high - sulfur fuel oil in regions such as China, the Middle East, the United States, Singapore + Malaysia, and others [126][128]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Presents the historical weekly and monthly import and export volumes of low - sulfur fuel oil in regions such as Singapore + Malaysia, China, the United States, and others [131][134]. 3.5 Global Main Region Fuel Oil Inventory and Floating Storage - **Spot Inventory**: Presents the historical spot inventories of fuel oil in regions such as Singapore, Europe ARA, Fujeirah, and the United States, and also shows the monthly changes in inventory in different regions [139]. - **Singapore Floating Storage**: Shows the historical floating storage situation of fuel oil in Singapore [147]. 3.6 Domestic Fuel Oil Market Supply and Consumption - **Production and Supply**: Presents the historical production, commodity volume, catalytic unit utilization rate, and production profit margin of domestic fuel oil [152]. - **Bonded Port Situation**: Presents the historical total inventory, low - sulfur production, port inventories of major ports, and actual consumption of fuel oil in the domestic bonded port [158].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆★ [1] - Fuel oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Asphalt: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - Global crude oil supply and demand are becoming looser. Sanctions and potential agreements may increase supply pressure, causing oil prices to drop to a new low for the year [1]. - For high-sulfur fuel oil, short-term supply-demand mismatches may support crack spreads, but high inventories will limit upside in the medium term. For low-sulfur fuel oil, it is expected to remain weak in the medium term despite some short-term supports [2]. - The asphalt market continues to be under pressure due to weak oil prices and fundamentals, with demand showing a north-south divide [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - The EU announced new sanctions against Russia on the 15th. US sanctions on Venezuela have led to a sharp decline in its oil exports. Market concerns about increased Russian oil supply after a potential agreement are pressuring oil prices [1]. Fuel Oil & Low-sulfur Fuel Oil - High-sulfur fuel oil: Geopolitical factors affect supply, but overall supply is still abundant. Demand from refineries and shipping may provide some support [2]. - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Domestic production is expected to shrink in December, potentially increasing import demand. Seasonal consumption and unstable overseas refineries may support crack spreads in the short term, but it will remain weak in the medium term [2]. Asphalt - The spot price of asphalt dropped significantly last night, and the futures market followed suit. Demand shows a north-south divide, and the market continues to be under pressure [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, the prices of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil will mainly show a narrow - range fluctuation, with LU stronger than FU. Given the current high global refinery operating rate, the supply of both high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil will increase marginally. The recovery of Middle Eastern refineries has significantly boosted the global high - sulfur supply, and the positive factors from marine fuel and power generation demands have been fully priced in the market. Recently, the high - sulfur transactions in the Singapore market have weakened. For low - sulfur fuel oil, although the maintenance of Brazilian refineries has basically ended, some spot goods have not been exported to the Asia - Pacific region, so the short - term low - sulfur price will remain stable. In the domestic market, the production scheduling of major refineries is gradually recovering. With sufficient quotas, exports in June have increased significantly, and it is expected that the scale will remain stable in July and August. The domestic low - sulfur fuel oil will continue to weaken month - on - month [4]. - Valuation: FU is in the range of 2800 - 3000, and LU is in the range of 3500 - 3700 [4]. - Strategies: (1) Unilateral: Follow the upward - trending oscillation of crude oil. (2) Inter - period: The back structure of FU and LU will continue, but the increase in near - term supply will keep the monthly spread at a low level. (3) Inter - variety: The FU cracking spread has fallen to the historical average level; the LU - FU spread will remain high in the short term [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Supply - **Refinery Operating Rate**: The document presents the capacity utilization rates of Chinese refineries (crude oil: atmospheric and vacuum distillation), independent refineries, and major refineries from 2016 - 2025 [6]. - **Global Refinery Maintenance**: It shows the maintenance volumes of global CDU, hydrocracking, FCC, and coking units from 2018 - 2025 [9][11][13][14]. - **Domestic Refinery Fuel Oil Production and Commercial Volume**: It includes the monthly production of fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, and domestic commercial volume of fuel oil in China from 2018 - 2025 [20]. 3.2 Demand - **Domestic and Foreign Fuel Oil Demand Data**: It shows the monthly actual consumption of marine fuel oil in China, the monthly sales of fuel oil for ship supply in Singapore, and the monthly apparent consumption of fuel oil in China from 2018 - 2025 [23]. 3.3 Inventory - **Global Fuel Oil Spot Inventory**: It includes the inventory data of heavy oil in Singapore, fuel oil in European ARA, heavy distillates in Fujairah, and residual fuel oil in the US from 2018 - 2025 [27][29][30]. 3.4 Price and Spread - **Asia - Pacific Regional Spot FOB Prices**: It shows the FOB prices of 3.5% and 0.5% fuel oil in Singapore, Fujairah, and other places from 2018 - 2025 [35][36][37]. - **European Regional Spot FOB Prices**: It includes the FOB prices of 3.5% and 1% fuel oil in the Mediterranean, north - western Europe, and other places, as well as the FOB prices of 3.5% and 0.5% fuel oil in the US Gulf, and the cargo price of high - sulfur fuel oil in New York Harbor from 2018 - 2025 [39][40][42][44][45]. - **Paper and Derivative Prices**: It shows the prices of high - sulfur and low - sulfur swaps in north - western Europe and Singapore, as well as the prices of FU and LU contracts from 2021 - 2025 [47][49][52]. - **Fuel Oil Spot Spread**: It includes the viscosity spread and high - low sulfur spread in Singapore from 2018 - 2025 [55][56]. - **Global Fuel Oil Cracking Spread**: It shows the cracking spreads of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and north - western Europe from 2019 - 2025 [58][60][61]. - **Global Fuel Oil Paper Monthly Spread**: It includes the monthly spreads of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and north - western Europe from 2022 - 2025 [65][66]. 3.5 Import and Export - **Domestic Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: It shows the monthly import and export volumes of fuel oil (excluding biodiesel) in China from 2018 - 2025 [71][73][74]. - **Global High - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: It shows the weekly changes in the import and export volumes of global high - sulfur fuel oil in different regions [76]. - **Global Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: It shows the weekly changes in the import and export volumes of global low - sulfur fuel oil in different regions [78]. 3.6 Futures Market Indicators and Internal - External Spreads - **Internal - External Spreads in the Spot and Futures Markets**: It shows the internal - external spreads of 380 and 0.5% fuel oil in the spot and futures markets, as well as the internal - external spreads of FU and LU contracts from 2021 - 2025 [81][85][86][87][88][89]. - **Changes in FU and LU Positions and Trading Volumes**: It shows the trading volumes and positions of fuel oil main contracts, low - sulfur fuel oil contracts from 2020 - 2025 [91][93][96][98][99]. - **Changes in FU and LU Warehouse Receipt Quantities**: It shows the changes in the warehouse receipt quantities of FU and LU from 2020 - 2025 [102][103].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - This week, the high-sulfur crack spread fluctuated and declined, the near-month spread decreased, and the EW continued to weaken. The 380 8-9 month spread weakened to $1.75, the basis weakened and then fluctuated, the FU09 internal and external spread rebounded slightly, and the domestic delivery volume was large, maintaining a loose pattern. The Singapore 0.5 crack spread declined slightly, the month spread weakened, and it fluctuated around $4.5 for the 8-9 month. The LU internal and external spread weakened slightly and then fluctuated, with the 09 around $16. [6][7] - This week, Singapore's onshore inventory increased significantly, the window was under delivery pressure, and the near-month contract was under pressure. Saudi Arabia's shipments increased month-on-month. Recently, fuel oil exports from Iran and Iraq remained at a high level, Egypt's net imports reached a new high, and the high-sulfur supply and demand were still in the peak season. However, the East-West and internal-external spreads have quickly declined. The external low-sulfur valuation is high, and the LU internal and external spread is running at a high level. Attention should be paid to the domestic production situation. [7] - The Singapore Hi-5 spread reached a new high this year, both 380cst and VLSFO weakened. The domestic FU internal and external spread rebounded slightly, and the LU valuation is high. Attention can be paid to the short-term valuation regression opportunity of FU-LU, with the risk being the continuous weakening of the external 380cst. [7] Summary by Related Content Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data - From July 15 to July 21, 2025, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 increased from $412.56 to $422.21, a change of $2.92; the price of Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 decreased from $466.16 to $469.91, a change of -$1.96; the Rotterdam HSFO-Brent M1 increased from -$3.12 to -$1.66, a change of $0.90; etc. [4] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data - From July 15 to July 21, 2025, the price of Singapore 380cst M1 decreased from $404.43 to $411.16, a change of -$0.23; the price of Singapore 180cst M1 increased from $414.93 to $425.21, a change of $1.57; the Singapore VLSFO M1 decreased from $496.15 to $493.65, a change of -$3.65; etc. [4] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data - From July 15 to July 21, 2025, the FOB 380cst price increased from $395.38 to $404.97, a change of $0.39; the FOB VLSFO price decreased from $501.64 to $497.55, a change of -$3.97; the 380 basis increased from -$6.98 to -$6.11, a change of $0.53; etc. [5] Domestic FU Data - From July 15 to July 21, 2025, the price of FU 01 decreased from 2828 to 2886, a change of -1; the price of FU 05 increased from 2788 to 2828, a change of 7; the price of FU 09 increased from 2840 to 2924, a change of 12; etc. [5] Domestic LU Data - From July 15 to July 21, 2025, the price of LU 01 decreased from 3529 to 3550, a change of -20; the price of LU 05 remained unchanged at 3500; the price of LU 09 decreased from 3639 to 3603, a change of -31; etc. [6]

Report Information - Report Title: Fuel Oil Industry Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: July 13, 2025 [1] - Author: Xu Liang Z0002220 [2] - Reviewer: Tang Yun Z0002422 [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - The fuel oil market is characterized by weak supply and demand, combined with cost - side fluctuations. High - sulfur fuel oil is supported by the peak power generation season, but inventory pressure restrains its upward movement. In the short term, it will fluctuate within a range following crude oil [4]. Fundamental Information High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The peak power generation season in the Middle East and South Asia has begun. Saudi Arabia's high - sulfur imports increased by 430,000 tons month - on - month, and Egypt's monthly imports reached 600,000 tons, boosting high - sulfur demand [3]. - The number of ships with desulfurization towers continues to increase. The proportion of high - sulfur marine fuel bunkering has risen to 39%, and the sales volume of high - sulfur marine fuel in Singapore increased by 8.3% year - on - year [3]. - Singapore's on - land fuel oil inventory increased by 1.328 million barrels (+5.68%) week - on - week, and the inventory in Fujairah increased by 1.308 million barrels (+14.62%), highlighting supply pressure [3]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Low - sulfur marine fuel faces substitution from high - sulfur fuel and competition from diesel. The low - sulfur bunkering volume in Singapore decreased by 4.7% month - on - month. In the power generation sector, its economic efficiency is lower than that of natural gas [3]. Price and Spread Information Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil | Location | 2025 - 07 - 11 | 2025 - 07 - 10 | 2025 - 07 - 04 | Daily Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Singapore Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil M + 2 (USD/ton) | 502.32 | 492.11 | 492.08 | 10.21 | 10.24 | | Rotterdam Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil M + 2 (USD/ton) | 467.45 | 458.7 | 457.38 | 8.75 | 10.07 | | US Gulf of Mexico Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil M + 2 (USD/barrel) | 75.88 | 75.39 | 75.67 | 0.49 | 0.67 | | China LU Futures M + 3 (CNY/ton) | 3640 | 3678 | 3636 | - 38 | 4 | | LU Futures M + 3 - Singapore Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil M + 2 (USD/ton) | 5.2517 | 20.1177 | 15.5002 | - 14.866 | - 10.2485 | | Singapore - Rotterdam Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil M + 1 (USD/ton) | 31.97 | 30.2 | 32.7 | 1.77 | - 0.73 | | Singapore Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil VS Brent M + 2 Crack | 10.63 | 10.58 | 11.03 | 0.05 | - 0.4 | | Rotterdam Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil VS Brent M + 2 Crack | 5.43 | 5.42 | 5.93 | 0.01 | - 0.5 | | US Gulf of Mexico Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil VS Brent M + 2 Crack | 7.88 | 7.87 | 8.51 | 0.01 | - 0.63 | | Singapore Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Monthly Spread | 4.6 | 4.79 | 6.4 | - 0.19 | - 1.8 | | Rotterdam Low - Sulfur Monthly Spread | 7.5 | 8 | 8.19 | - 0.5 | - 0.69 | | US Gulf of Mexico Low - Sulfur Monthly Spread | 1.9685 | 4.826 | 4.5085 | - 2.8575 | - 2.54 | | LuM + 3 - M + 4 Monthly Spread (USD) | 4.0454 | 4.181 | 3.0703 | - 0.1356 | 0.9751 | | Singapore High - Low Sulfur Spread M + 2 | 85.07 | 85.09 | 81.24 | - 0.02 | 3.83 | [5] High - Sulfur Fuel Oil | Location | 2025 - 07 - 14 | 2025 - 07 - 11 | 2025 - 07 - 07 | Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Singapore High - Sulfur Fuel Oil M + 1 (USD/ton) | 418.73 | 418.88 | 424.82 | - 0.15 | - 6.09 | | Rotterdam High - Sulfur Fuel Oil M + 1 (USD/ton) | 421.88 | 422.34 | 419.32 | - 0.46 | 2.56 | | US Gulf of Mexico High - Sulfur Fuel Oil M + 1 (USD/barrel) | 63.34 | 63.45 | 62.89 | - 0.11 | 0.45 | | China FU Futures M + 1 Price (CNY/ton) | 2907 | 2873 | 2906 | 34 | 1 | | Singapore High - Sulfur Fuel Oil Monthly Spread | 1.65 | 3.87 | 3.88 | - 2.22 | - 2.23 | | Rotterdam High - Sulfur Fuel Oil Monthly Spread | 9.61 | 10.37 | 8.63 | - 0.76 | 0.98 | | US Gulf of Mexico High - Sulfur Fuel Oil Monthly Spread | 8.9535 | 9.906 | 8.3185 | - 0.9525 | 0.635 | | FU Monthly Spread (USD/ton) | - 4.8823 | - 4.3203 | - 4.6055 | - 0.562 | - 0.2768 | | Singapore High - Low Sulfur Spread M + 1 | 87.78 | 88.04 | 80.48 | - 0.26 | 7.3 | | Rotterdam High - Low Sulfur Spread M + 1 | 54.61 | 54.67 | 58.74 | - 0.06 | - 4.13 | | US Gulf of Mexico High - Low Sulfur Spread M + 1 | 77.7875 | 84.1375 | 91.7575 | - 6.35 | - 13.97 | | China High - Sulfur M + 2 - Singapore High - Sulfur M + 1 | - 13.3804 | - 2.3882 | - 10.1768 | - 10.9922 | - 3.2036 | | Singapore High - Sulfur Fuel Oil VS Brent M + 1 Crack (USD/barrel) | - 2.97 | - 2.18 | - 1.54 | - 0.79 | - 1.43 | [26][28]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Fuel oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Asphalt: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ★☆☆, representing a bias towards a short - trend, with a driving force for a downward trend, but limited operability on the market [1] Core Views - The rapid production increase by OPEC+ has limited impact on oil prices in Q3. After the Q3 peak season, if the US equivalent tariff policy continues, oil prices may decline. Other energy products have their own supply - demand characteristics and short - term trends [2][3][4] Summary by Category Crude Oil - OPEC+ decided to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding market expectations. The actual monthly production increase of OPEC+ is less than the target increase. In Q3, the increase can be well absorbed by demand. After Q3, if the US tariff policy continues, oil prices may decline. Short - term view is that the bottom of oil prices will rise in Q3 [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Crude oil opening weak drove fuel - related futures down. High - sulfur fuel oil demand is low, and its price and cracking spread are weakening. Low - sulfur fuel oil has limited short - term supply pressure due to the coking profit and diesel cracking strength, but demand lacks a clear driver, with short - term cracking spread expected to be slightly stronger [2] Asphalt - With the decline of oil prices, asphalt prices also dropped. The shipment volume of 54 sample refineries decreased slightly, and the cumulative year - on - year increase dropped from 8% to 7%. Demand recovery is delayed, refinery inventory increased by 15,000 tons, and social inventory remained flat. The short - term trend is to fluctuate [3] LPG - The international market supply is loose, and overseas prices may be under pressure. Last week's new maintenance led to a decline in chemical demand, but the decline in import costs promoted the repair of PDH profit margins. In summer, supply pressure increases, and the market trend is weak [4]