燃料油产业数据月报 研究所·梁可方 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019111 日期：2026年1月11日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint | 月度观点综述 | | --- | CONTENTS Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 | | 炼厂开工与产量方面，前期检修的炼厂继续回归，全球各地炼厂开工率逐步上升到年内高位，全球燃料 | | --- | --- | | 供需 | 油产量因此进一步上升。而在需求方面，船燃市场表现平淡，中东地区发电需求季节性走弱，同时中国、 | | | 印度进料需求仍未见恢复。 | | 价格与价差 | 绝对价格方面，全球各地燃料油价格月内继续下跌，但高硫弱势有所削减，裂解表现相对强于低硫。月 | | | 差方面，近端现货供应充足甚至趋于过剩的格局仍然压制近月合约估值，导致月差持续处于Contango结构。 | | | 高硫方面，中东地区12月出口数量有所下滑，但产量仍然处于高位，同时从船期数据来看，1月出口仍 | | | 然将大幅上升，亚太地区预计仍 ...

本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 不可作为投资依据,转载请注明出处 | 《八》 国控期货 | | 能源日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | 操作评级 | | 2025年12月16日 | | 原油 | ★☆★ | 王盈敏 中级分析师 | | 燃料油 | ★☆☆ | F3066912 Z0016785 | | 低硫燃料油 ★☆☆ | | 李海群 中级分析师 | | 沥青 | ★☆☆ | F03107558 Z0021515 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【原油】 欧盟理事会15日发布两份公告,宣布对俄罗斯采取新一轮制裁措施。自上周美国扣押一艘油轮并对与委内瑞拉 有业务往来的航运公司和船只实施制裁以来,委内瑞拉的石油出口量急剧下降。然全球原油供需愈发宽松背景 下,美国主导的和谈取得进展导致市场担忧达成协议后俄油供应释放进一步增大供应压力,油价承压降至年内 低点。 【燃料油&低硫燃料油】 高硫燃料油方面，地缘因素持续犹动供应前景。原料端，美国计划数周内对多艘涉及委内瑞拉油轮采取扣押行 动,或影响高硫重质原料出货。不 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, the prices of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil will mainly show a narrow - range fluctuation, with LU stronger than FU. Given the current high global refinery operating rate, the supply of both high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil will increase marginally. The recovery of Middle Eastern refineries has significantly boosted the global high - sulfur supply, and the positive factors from marine fuel and power generation demands have been fully priced in the market. Recently, the high - sulfur transactions in the Singapore market have weakened. For low - sulfur fuel oil, although the maintenance of Brazilian refineries has basically ended, some spot goods have not been exported to the Asia - Pacific region, so the short - term low - sulfur price will remain stable. In the domestic market, the production scheduling of major refineries is gradually recovering. With sufficient quotas, exports in June have increased significantly, and it is expected that the scale will remain stable in July and August. The domestic low - sulfur fuel oil will continue to weaken month - on - month [4]. - Valuation: FU is in the range of 2800 - 3000, and LU is in the range of 3500 - 3700 [4]. - Strategies: (1) Unilateral: Follow the upward - trending oscillation of crude oil. (2) Inter - period: The back structure of FU and LU will continue, but the increase in near - term supply will keep the monthly spread at a low level. (3) Inter - variety: The FU cracking spread has fallen to the historical average level; the LU - FU spread will remain high in the short term [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Supply - **Refinery Operating Rate**: The document presents the capacity utilization rates of Chinese refineries (crude oil: atmospheric and vacuum distillation), independent refineries, and major refineries from 2016 - 2025 [6]. - **Global Refinery Maintenance**: It shows the maintenance volumes of global CDU, hydrocracking, FCC, and coking units from 2018 - 2025 [9][11][13][14]. - **Domestic Refinery Fuel Oil Production and Commercial Volume**: It includes the monthly production of fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, and domestic commercial volume of fuel oil in China from 2018 - 2025 [20]. 3.2 Demand - **Domestic and Foreign Fuel Oil Demand Data**: It shows the monthly actual consumption of marine fuel oil in China, the monthly sales of fuel oil for ship supply in Singapore, and the monthly apparent consumption of fuel oil in China from 2018 - 2025 [23]. 3.3 Inventory - **Global Fuel Oil Spot Inventory**: It includes the inventory data of heavy oil in Singapore, fuel oil in European ARA, heavy distillates in Fujairah, and residual fuel oil in the US from 2018 - 2025 [27][29][30]. 3.4 Price and Spread - **Asia - Pacific Regional Spot FOB Prices**: It shows the FOB prices of 3.5% and 0.5% fuel oil in Singapore, Fujairah, and other places from 2018 - 2025 [35][36][37]. - **European Regional Spot FOB Prices**: It includes the FOB prices of 3.5% and 1% fuel oil in the Mediterranean, north - western Europe, and other places, as well as the FOB prices of 3.5% and 0.5% fuel oil in the US Gulf, and the cargo price of high - sulfur fuel oil in New York Harbor from 2018 - 2025 [39][40][42][44][45]. - **Paper and Derivative Prices**: It shows the prices of high - sulfur and low - sulfur swaps in north - western Europe and Singapore, as well as the prices of FU and LU contracts from 2021 - 2025 [47][49][52]. - **Fuel Oil Spot Spread**: It includes the viscosity spread and high - low sulfur spread in Singapore from 2018 - 2025 [55][56]. - **Global Fuel Oil Cracking Spread**: It shows the cracking spreads of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and north - western Europe from 2019 - 2025 [58][60][61]. - **Global Fuel Oil Paper Monthly Spread**: It includes the monthly spreads of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and north - western Europe from 2022 - 2025 [65][66]. 3.5 Import and Export - **Domestic Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: It shows the monthly import and export volumes of fuel oil (excluding biodiesel) in China from 2018 - 2025 [71][73][74]. - **Global High - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: It shows the weekly changes in the import and export volumes of global high - sulfur fuel oil in different regions [76]. - **Global Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: It shows the weekly changes in the import and export volumes of global low - sulfur fuel oil in different regions [78]. 3.6 Futures Market Indicators and Internal - External Spreads - **Internal - External Spreads in the Spot and Futures Markets**: It shows the internal - external spreads of 380 and 0.5% fuel oil in the spot and futures markets, as well as the internal - external spreads of FU and LU contracts from 2021 - 2025 [81][85][86][87][88][89]. - **Changes in FU and LU Positions and Trading Volumes**: It shows the trading volumes and positions of fuel oil main contracts, low - sulfur fuel oil contracts from 2020 - 2025 [91][93][96][98][99]. - **Changes in FU and LU Warehouse Receipt Quantities**: It shows the changes in the warehouse receipt quantities of FU and LU from 2020 - 2025 [102][103].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - This week, the high-sulfur crack spread fluctuated and declined, the near-month spread decreased, and the EW continued to weaken. The 380 8-9 month spread weakened to $1.75, the basis weakened and then fluctuated, the FU09 internal and external spread rebounded slightly, and the domestic delivery volume was large, maintaining a loose pattern. The Singapore 0.5 crack spread declined slightly, the month spread weakened, and it fluctuated around $4.5 for the 8-9 month. The LU internal and external spread weakened slightly and then fluctuated, with the 09 around $16. [6][7] - This week, Singapore's onshore inventory increased significantly, the window was under delivery pressure, and the near-month contract was under pressure. Saudi Arabia's shipments increased month-on-month. Recently, fuel oil exports from Iran and Iraq remained at a high level, Egypt's net imports reached a new high, and the high-sulfur supply and demand were still in the peak season. However, the East-West and internal-external spreads have quickly declined. The external low-sulfur valuation is high, and the LU internal and external spread is running at a high level. Attention should be paid to the domestic production situation. [7] - The Singapore Hi-5 spread reached a new high this year, both 380cst and VLSFO weakened. The domestic FU internal and external spread rebounded slightly, and the LU valuation is high. Attention can be paid to the short-term valuation regression opportunity of FU-LU, with the risk being the continuous weakening of the external 380cst. [7] Summary by Related Content Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data - From July 15 to July 21, 2025, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 increased from $412.56 to $422.21, a change of $2.92; the price of Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 decreased from $466.16 to $469.91, a change of -$1.96; the Rotterdam HSFO-Brent M1 increased from -$3.12 to -$1.66, a change of $0.90; etc. [4] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data - From July 15 to July 21, 2025, the price of Singapore 380cst M1 decreased from $404.43 to $411.16, a change of -$0.23; the price of Singapore 180cst M1 increased from $414.93 to $425.21, a change of $1.57; the Singapore VLSFO M1 decreased from $496.15 to $493.65, a change of -$3.65; etc. [4] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data - From July 15 to July 21, 2025, the FOB 380cst price increased from $395.38 to $404.97, a change of $0.39; the FOB VLSFO price decreased from $501.64 to $497.55, a change of -$3.97; the 380 basis increased from -$6.98 to -$6.11, a change of $0.53; etc. [5] Domestic FU Data - From July 15 to July 21, 2025, the price of FU 01 decreased from 2828 to 2886, a change of -1; the price of FU 05 increased from 2788 to 2828, a change of 7; the price of FU 09 increased from 2840 to 2924, a change of 12; etc. [5] Domestic LU Data - From July 15 to July 21, 2025, the price of LU 01 decreased from 3529 to 3550, a change of -20; the price of LU 05 remained unchanged at 3500; the price of LU 09 decreased from 3639 to 3603, a change of -31; etc. [6]

Report Information - Report Title: Fuel Oil Industry Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: July 13, 2025 [1] - Author: Xu Liang Z0002220 [2] - Reviewer: Tang Yun Z0002422 [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - The fuel oil market is characterized by weak supply and demand, combined with cost - side fluctuations. High - sulfur fuel oil is supported by the peak power generation season, but inventory pressure restrains its upward movement. In the short term, it will fluctuate within a range following crude oil [4]. Fundamental Information High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The peak power generation season in the Middle East and South Asia has begun. Saudi Arabia's high - sulfur imports increased by 430,000 tons month - on - month, and Egypt's monthly imports reached 600,000 tons, boosting high - sulfur demand [3]. - The number of ships with desulfurization towers continues to increase. The proportion of high - sulfur marine fuel bunkering has risen to 39%, and the sales volume of high - sulfur marine fuel in Singapore increased by 8.3% year - on - year [3]. - Singapore's on - land fuel oil inventory increased by 1.328 million barrels (+5.68%) week - on - week, and the inventory in Fujairah increased by 1.308 million barrels (+14.62%), highlighting supply pressure [3]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Low - sulfur marine fuel faces substitution from high - sulfur fuel and competition from diesel. The low - sulfur bunkering volume in Singapore decreased by 4.7% month - on - month. In the power generation sector, its economic efficiency is lower than that of natural gas [3]. Price and Spread Information Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil | Location | 2025 - 07 - 11 | 2025 - 07 - 10 | 2025 - 07 - 04 | Daily Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Singapore Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil M + 2 (USD/ton) | 502.32 | 492.11 | 492.08 | 10.21 | 10.24 | | Rotterdam Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil M + 2 (USD/ton) | 467.45 | 458.7 | 457.38 | 8.75 | 10.07 | | US Gulf of Mexico Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil M + 2 (USD/barrel) | 75.88 | 75.39 | 75.67 | 0.49 | 0.67 | | China LU Futures M + 3 (CNY/ton) | 3640 | 3678 | 3636 | - 38 | 4 | | LU Futures M + 3 - Singapore Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil M + 2 (USD/ton) | 5.2517 | 20.1177 | 15.5002 | - 14.866 | - 10.2485 | | Singapore - Rotterdam Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil M + 1 (USD/ton) | 31.97 | 30.2 | 32.7 | 1.77 | - 0.73 | | Singapore Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil VS Brent M + 2 Crack | 10.63 | 10.58 | 11.03 | 0.05 | - 0.4 | | Rotterdam Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil VS Brent M + 2 Crack | 5.43 | 5.42 | 5.93 | 0.01 | - 0.5 | | US Gulf of Mexico Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil VS Brent M + 2 Crack | 7.88 | 7.87 | 8.51 | 0.01 | - 0.63 | | Singapore Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Monthly Spread | 4.6 | 4.79 | 6.4 | - 0.19 | - 1.8 | | Rotterdam Low - Sulfur Monthly Spread | 7.5 | 8 | 8.19 | - 0.5 | - 0.69 | | US Gulf of Mexico Low - Sulfur Monthly Spread | 1.9685 | 4.826 | 4.5085 | - 2.8575 | - 2.54 | | LuM + 3 - M + 4 Monthly Spread (USD) | 4.0454 | 4.181 | 3.0703 | - 0.1356 | 0.9751 | | Singapore High - Low Sulfur Spread M + 2 | 85.07 | 85.09 | 81.24 | - 0.02 | 3.83 | [5] High - Sulfur Fuel Oil | Location | 2025 - 07 - 14 | 2025 - 07 - 11 | 2025 - 07 - 07 | Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Singapore High - Sulfur Fuel Oil M + 1 (USD/ton) | 418.73 | 418.88 | 424.82 | - 0.15 | - 6.09 | | Rotterdam High - Sulfur Fuel Oil M + 1 (USD/ton) | 421.88 | 422.34 | 419.32 | - 0.46 | 2.56 | | US Gulf of Mexico High - Sulfur Fuel Oil M + 1 (USD/barrel) | 63.34 | 63.45 | 62.89 | - 0.11 | 0.45 | | China FU Futures M + 1 Price (CNY/ton) | 2907 | 2873 | 2906 | 34 | 1 | | Singapore High - Sulfur Fuel Oil Monthly Spread | 1.65 | 3.87 | 3.88 | - 2.22 | - 2.23 | | Rotterdam High - Sulfur Fuel Oil Monthly Spread | 9.61 | 10.37 | 8.63 | - 0.76 | 0.98 | | US Gulf of Mexico High - Sulfur Fuel Oil Monthly Spread | 8.9535 | 9.906 | 8.3185 | - 0.9525 | 0.635 | | FU Monthly Spread (USD/ton) | - 4.8823 | - 4.3203 | - 4.6055 | - 0.562 | - 0.2768 | | Singapore High - Low Sulfur Spread M + 1 | 87.78 | 88.04 | 80.48 | - 0.26 | 7.3 | | Rotterdam High - Low Sulfur Spread M + 1 | 54.61 | 54.67 | 58.74 | - 0.06 | - 4.13 | | US Gulf of Mexico High - Low Sulfur Spread M + 1 | 77.7875 | 84.1375 | 91.7575 | - 6.35 | - 13.97 | | China High - Sulfur M + 2 - Singapore High - Sulfur M + 1 | - 13.3804 | - 2.3882 | - 10.1768 | - 10.9922 | - 3.2036 | | Singapore High - Sulfur Fuel Oil VS Brent M + 1 Crack (USD/barrel) | - 2.97 | - 2.18 | - 1.54 | - 0.79 | - 1.43 | [26][28]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Fuel oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Asphalt: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ★☆☆, representing a bias towards a short - trend, with a driving force for a downward trend, but limited operability on the market [1] Core Views - The rapid production increase by OPEC+ has limited impact on oil prices in Q3. After the Q3 peak season, if the US equivalent tariff policy continues, oil prices may decline. Other energy products have their own supply - demand characteristics and short - term trends [2][3][4] Summary by Category Crude Oil - OPEC+ decided to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding market expectations. The actual monthly production increase of OPEC+ is less than the target increase. In Q3, the increase can be well absorbed by demand. After Q3, if the US tariff policy continues, oil prices may decline. Short - term view is that the bottom of oil prices will rise in Q3 [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Crude oil opening weak drove fuel - related futures down. High - sulfur fuel oil demand is low, and its price and cracking spread are weakening. Low - sulfur fuel oil has limited short - term supply pressure due to the coking profit and diesel cracking strength, but demand lacks a clear driver, with short - term cracking spread expected to be slightly stronger [2] Asphalt - With the decline of oil prices, asphalt prices also dropped. The shipment volume of 54 sample refineries decreased slightly, and the cumulative year - on - year increase dropped from 8% to 7%. Demand recovery is delayed, refinery inventory increased by 15,000 tons, and social inventory remained flat. The short - term trend is to fluctuate [3] LPG - The international market supply is loose, and overseas prices may be under pressure. Last week's new maintenance led to a decline in chemical demand, but the decline in import costs promoted the repair of PDH profit margins. In summer, supply pressure increases, and the market trend is weak [4]