Company and Report Information - Report Title: Fuel Oil and Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: May 11, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Liang Kefang from Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute [1] Core Viewpoints - **Weekly Review**: Global fuel oil prices rebounded from the bottom this week, with cracks and spreads strengthening slightly. The strength comparison between high and low sulfur fuels showed marginal changes, with low-sulfur valuation remaining slightly stronger than high-sulfur [4]. - **Weekly Outlook**: Fuel oil prices generally rebounded steadily from the bottom after a significant gap down following crude oil prices. Currently, crude oil is the core factor dragging down fuel oil valuation, with OPEC's production increase and market concerns about overseas demand being the most obvious negatives. From the perspective of fuel oil's own fundamentals, due to ongoing major refinery maintenance globally and the current peak season for marine and power generation demand, the overall supply-demand structure is relatively stable. Therefore, once crude oil price trends stabilize, fuel oil price fluctuations are expected to be dominated by its own fundamental situation. For high-sulfur fuel oil, the export volume to the Middle East has remained stable in recent weeks, but it should be noted that the premium of bunkering prices in the marine fuel market has begun to decline, and China's secondary raw material demand may be weaker than in previous years, which will drag down the price performance of high-sulfur fuel oil. For low-sulfur fuel oil, the export volume to Africa has increased significantly, partially offsetting the positive impact of the previous decline in exports from Brazil, Indonesia, etc. However, due to the weak marine fuel demand and loose supply in the low-sulfur market from February to April, resulting in a relatively low valuation, coupled with the recent strengthening of the bunkering price in the Singapore market relative to the FOB price, which may indicate an improvement in marine fuel demand, the negative impact of the export increase is not expected to lead to an obvious downward trend in prices [4]. Summary by Directory Supply - **Refinery Operations**: Data on the capacity utilization rates of Chinese refineries, independent refineries, and major refineries are presented in graphical form, showing their weekly trends from 2016 - 2025 [6]. - **Global Refinery Maintenance**: Graphs show the maintenance volumes of global CDU, hydrocracking, FCC, and coking units from 2018 - 2025 [8][10][12][14]. - **Domestic Refinery Fuel Oil Production and Commodity Volume**: Graphs display the monthly production and commodity volume of fuel oil in China from 2018 - 2025, as well as the monthly production of low-sulfur fuel oil in Chinese refineries from 2021 - 2025 [16]. Demand - **Domestic and Overseas Fuel Oil Demand Data**: Graphs show the monthly sales volume of fuel oil for ship supply in Singapore, the monthly apparent consumption of fuel oil in China, and the monthly actual consumption of marine fuel oil in China from 2018 - 2025 [19]. Inventory - **Global Fuel Oil Spot Inventory**: Graphs present the inventory data of heavy oil in Singapore, fuel oil in European ARA, heavy distillates in Fujairah, residual fuel oil in the US, etc., from 2018 - 2025 [22][24][25]. Price and Spreads - **Asia-Pacific Regional Spot FOB Prices**: Graphs show the FOB prices of 3.5% and 0.5% fuel oil in Singapore, 3.5% fuel oil in Fujairah, etc., from 2018 - 2025 [30][31][32]. - **European Regional Spot FOB Prices**: Graphs display the FOB prices of 3.5% and 1% fuel oil in Northwest Europe, 3.5% fuel oil in the Mediterranean, etc., from 2018 - 2025 [34][35][37]. - **US Regional Fuel Oil Spot Prices**: Although specific data is not fully presented, it is mentioned that relevant price information is included [40]. - **Paper and Derivative Prices**: Graphs show the prices of high and low-sulfur swaps in Northwest Europe and Singapore, as well as the prices of FU and LU contracts from 2021 - 2025 [42][43][46]. - **Fuel Oil Spot Spreads**: Graphs present the price spreads between high and low sulfur fuels in Singapore, as well as the viscosity spreads in Singapore from 2018 - 2025 [49][51]. - **Global Fuel Oil Crack Spreads**: Graphs show the crack spreads of high and low sulfur fuels in Singapore and Northwest Europe from 2019 - 2025 [53][55][56]. - **Global Fuel Oil Paper Monthly Spreads**: Graphs display the monthly spreads of high and low sulfur fuels in Singapore and Northwest Europe [59][60][61]. Imports and Exports - **Domestic Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: Graphs show the monthly import and export volumes of fuel oil (excluding biodiesel) in China from 2018 - 2025 [66][68][69]. - **Global High-Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: Graphs present the weekly changes in global high-sulfur fuel oil import and export volumes by region [71]. - **Global Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: Graphs show the weekly changes in global low-sulfur fuel oil import and export volumes by region [73].