燃料油产业周报 2025/11/30 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论 和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情 形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行 使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究相 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of fuel oil are currently in a short - term state of oversupply. The market is mainly boosted by geopolitical factors. It is expected that fuel oil will fluctuate slightly stronger. The FU2601 contract will operate in the range of 2450 - 25080, and the LU2602 contract will operate in the range of 3010 - 3060 [3] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market structure will continue to be under pressure due to the replenishment of blending raw material components and the increase in East - West arbitrage cargo flows. The upstream supply of low - sulfur fuel oil suppresses the market, and the mild downstream bunker fuel demand around the Singapore hub further drags down the overall market dynamics. The spot is nearly flat to the futures. Singapore's fuel oil inventory decreased by 285,000 barrels to 20.599 million barrels in the week of November 26th. The price is below the 20 - day moving average which is trending down. The high - sulfur main position holds short positions with a decrease in shorts, and the low - sulfur main position holds long positions with an increase in longs [3] - The FU main contract futures price rose from 2453 to 2486, an increase of 1.35%. The LU main contract futures price rose from 3018 to 3026, an increase of 0.27%. The FU basis changed from - 10 to 3, an increase of 130.43%. The LU basis changed from 34 to 32, a decrease of 5.70% [5] - The price of Zhoushan high - sulfur fuel decreased from 437.00 to 436.00, a decrease of 0.23%. The price of Zhoushan low - sulfur fuel decreased from 456.00 to 452.00, a decrease of 0.88%. The price of Singapore high - sulfur fuel increased from 335.60 to 337.72, an increase of 0.63%. The price of Singapore low - sulfur fuel increased from 420.50 to 426.50, an increase of 1.43%. The price of Middle - East high - sulfur fuel increased from 304.75 to 310.37, an increase of 1.84%. The price of Singapore diesel increased from 626.62 to 627.20, an increase of 0.09% [6] 3.2 Long - Short Concerns - Bullish factors: Russia's restrictions on fuel oil exports; cancellation of US - Russia talks and sanctions on Russian oil - related enterprises [4] - Bearish factors: The optimism on the demand side remains to be verified; the upstream crude oil is under pressure [4] - Market drivers: The supply side is affected by geopolitical risks, resonating with neutral demand [4] 3.3 Fundamental Data - Fundamentals: The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil suppresses the market, and the mild downstream demand drags down the market, rated neutral. Basis: Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is at 337.72 US dollars/ton with a basis of 3 US dollars/ton, and Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil is at 421.33 US dollars/ton with a basis of 32 US dollars/ton, rated neutral. Inventory: Singapore's fuel oil inventory decreased by 285,000 barrels to 20.599 million barrels in the week of November 26th, rated bullish. Disk: The price is below the 20 - day moving average which is trending down, rated bearish. Main positions: The high - sulfur main position holds short positions with a decrease in shorts, rated bearish; the low - sulfur main position holds long positions with an increase in longs, rated bullish. Expectations: The fuel oil fundamentals are in a short - term oversupply state, and the market is boosted by geopolitics, with a slightly stronger oscillation [3] 3.4 Spread Data - Not elaborated in detail in the given content, only shows the FU - LU spread graph [10] 3.5 Inventory Data - Singapore's fuel oil inventory data from September 17th to November 26th is provided. For example, on September 17th, the inventory was 23.159 million barrels with an increase of 120,000 barrels; on November 26th, the inventory was 20.599 million barrels with a decrease of 2.85 million barrels [8]

1、基本面：市场消息人士称，稳定的船燃活动及新加坡地区未受制裁资源供应有限将在短期内部分支撑亚洲高 硫燃料油基本面，但持续强劲的高硫燃料油炼油利润率正在抑制炼厂的原料需求；在北亚下游市场，舟山枢纽 的保税船用燃料油销量在9月份环比下降7.7%至71.32万吨，此前8月因受美国额外制裁港口订单转移带来一次性 提振而创下纪录高位，此次回落可能属正常化；中性 2、基差：新加坡高硫燃料油364.6美元/吨，基差为-7元/吨，新加坡低硫燃料油为426.7美元/吨，基差为-9元/吨， 现货平水期货；中性 3、库存：新加坡燃料油10月15日当周库存为2235.9万桶，增加174万桶；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方，20日线偏下；偏空 5、主力持仓：高硫主力持仓空单，空减，偏空；低硫主力持仓多单，多减，偏多 6、预期：隔夜收到美俄会谈取消及对俄制裁增加，原油受地缘担忧影响大幅上行，燃油因此收益，预计开盘将 大幅走高，短期在情绪刺激下可能回升至前期震荡区间下沿。FU2601：2720-2780区间偏强运行，LU2512： 3200-3260区间偏强运行 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-10-23 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 利多： 2025-10-21燃料油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 5 价差数据 库存数据 燃料油： 1、基本面：新加坡交易商表示，亚洲地区11月期间可能保持充足供应，因现有库存高企且俄罗斯高硫货品持续 稳定流入亚洲。同时，高硫燃料油炼油利润率的回升抑制了炼厂的原料需求；新加坡低硫燃料油码头交货定期 合同溢价在10月出现下跌，主要因库存充足及需求不足对上游估值构成压力；中性 2、基差：新加坡高硫燃料油369.75美元/吨，基差为26元/吨，新加坡低硫燃料油为430.6美元/吨，基差为-6元/ 吨，现货平水期货；中性 3、库存：新加坡燃料油10月15日当周库存为2235.9万桶，增加174万桶；偏空 4 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating, but suggests a short - term bearish outlook for fuel oil [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - The Asian fuel oil market is expected to have sufficient supply in November due to high existing inventories and continuous inflow of Russian high - sulfur products. High - sulfur fuel oil refining profit recovery has curbed refinery raw material demand, and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore has faced downward pressure on upstream valuation due to sufficient inventory and weak demand. With international oil prices falling, and considering geopolitical and trade factors, fuel oil is under pressure and is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term. Specifically, FU2601 is expected to operate bearishly in the 2620 - 2680 range, and LU2512 in the 3080 - 3130 range [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - The current situation of fuel oil: The fundamentals show sufficient supply in Asia in November. The basis indicates that the spot is at par with the futures. The inventory in Singapore increased by 1740000 barrels to 22359000 barrels in the week of October 15. The price is below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward. High - sulfur main positions are short and increasing, while low - sulfur main positions are long and decreasing. The expected short - term trend is bearish, with FU2601 in the 2620 - 2680 range and LU2512 in the 3080 - 3130 range [3]. - Futures price changes: The FU main contract futures price dropped from 2714 to 2669, a decrease of 45 or 1.66%. The LU main contract futures price dropped from 3216 to 3158, a decrease of 58 or 1.80%. The FU basis increased from 24 to 26, an increase of 2 or 9.13%, and the LU basis decreased from 36 to - 6, a decrease of 41 or 115.90% [5]. - Spot price changes: The prices of Zhoushan high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil remained unchanged. The Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil price increased from 367.61 to 369.75, an increase of 2.14 or 0.58%. The Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil price decreased from 435.50 to 430.60, a decrease of 4.90 or 1.13%. The Middle - East high - sulfur fuel oil price increased from 344.12 to 345.51, an increase of 1.39 or 0.40%. The Singapore diesel price decreased from 620.96 to 618.06, a decrease of 2.90 or 0.47% [6]. 3.2 Long - Short Focus - Bullish factors: Russia has extended its fuel export restrictions [4]. - Bearish factors: The optimism on the demand side remains to be verified, and the relationship between the US and Russia has eased after their talks [4]. - Market drivers: The supply side is affected by geopolitical risks, and the demand is neutral [4]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - The fundamentals of fuel oil are summarized as neutral, mainly due to sufficient supply in Asia, high existing inventories, continuous inflow of Russian high - sulfur products, and the impact of refining profit recovery on refinery raw material demand [3]. 3.4 Spread Data - The report does not provide specific analysis of spread data, only shows the change in the basis of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil futures [3][5]. 3.5 Inventory Data - Singapore fuel oil inventory data from August 6 to October 15 shows fluctuations. In the week of October 15, the inventory was 22359000 barrels, an increase of 1740000 barrels [8].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-08-29燃料油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 5 价差数据 库存数据 燃料油： 1、基本面：由于东西方套利经济不可行，预计9月来自西方的套利货流入量将减少，短期内将提振低硫燃料油 基本面；部分交易商担忧秋季炼厂检修季来临前原料需求的匮乏，加之夏季结束后发电需求逐步减弱，除非年 末假期前加油活动回升，否则可能加剧新加坡地区的供应过剩局面；中性 2、基差：新加坡高硫燃料油392.38美元/吨，基差为69元/吨，新加坡低硫燃料油为492.5美元/吨，基差为114元 /吨，现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：新加坡燃料油8月27日当周库存为2188.9万桶，减少203万桶；偏多 4、盘面：价格在20日 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating, but gives a neutral view on the fundamentals of fuel oil, with some factors being bullish and others bearish [3] 2. Core View - The fundamentals of high - sulfur fuel oil are continuously suppressed by the surplus of spot supply and the stable arrival of arbitrage cargoes, and the peak of summer power - generation demand is fading. The market structure of Asian low - sulfur fuel oil remains around the current level. In the short term, the increase in supply and relatively weak demand may weaken the fundamentals of the low - sulfur fuel oil market in the next few weeks. With the decline of crude oil prices and lack of support from news, downstream inventory replenishment is mainly for rigid demand, and the market sentiment is cautious. It is expected that fuel oil will fluctuate in the short term. The FU2509 is expected to trade in the range of 2850 - 2900, and the LU2509 in the range of 3620 - 3680 [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - The FU2509 is expected to trade in the range of 2850 - 2900, and the LU2509 in the range of 3620 - 3680. The fundamentals of high - sulfur fuel oil are under pressure, and the short - term fundamentals of low - sulfur fuel oil may weaken. The market is expected to be cautious with short - term fluctuations [3] 3.2 Multi - Short Concerns - **Likely Positive Factors**: The expected increase in summer power - generation demand [4] - **Likely Negative Factors**: The optimism on the demand side remains to be verified, and there is a possibility of relaxation of sanctions on Russia. The market is driven by the resonance of geopolitical risks on the supply side and neutral demand [4] 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Fundamentals**: The surplus of spot supply and stable arrival of arbitrage cargoes suppress high - sulfur fuel oil, and the summer power - generation peak is fading. The short - term supply increase and weak demand may weaken the low - sulfur fuel oil market [3] - **Basis**: The basis of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is 63 yuan/ton, and that of low - sulfur fuel oil is 69 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [3] - **Inventory**: The Singapore fuel oil inventory in the week of July 9 was 20.809 billion barrels, a decrease of 5.2 million barrels [3] - **Market Trend**: The price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [3] - **Main Positions**: The main positions of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil are short, and the short positions are increasing [3] 3.4 Spread Data - The report does not provide a detailed analysis of spread data, but shows the price changes of futures and spot prices of different fuel oil varieties and their spreads [5][6] 3.5 Inventory Data - The inventory data of Singapore fuel oil from April 23 to July 2 are presented, showing the inventory volume and its changes over time [8]