Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The emotional premium in the crude oil market has significantly declined, which will drive the overall decline of the energy sector. However, before the two sides truly reach an agreement, the situation in the Middle East remains unclear, and the impact of oil supply disruptions will gradually become apparent. The market structure of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil will trend weaker only when there is a definite signal of easing in the US - Iran negotiations, and the market emotional premium will be repeatedly disturbed by news, so caution is needed [1][2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The night session of the main contract of the Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures closed down 1.58%, at 4,433 yuan/ton; the night session of the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 2.9%, at 5,295 yuan/ton [1] - Iran's president stated that Iran is willing to end the war, but on the condition that its demands are met, especially the guarantee of no more aggression. Trump also hinted that the US will soon withdraw from Iran. The high - sulfur fuel oil has a relatively high supply share from the Middle East and a large exposure to geopolitical conflict risks. The increase in exports from Russia and Venezuela can partially offset the supply gap, and the inventory accumulated on land and in floating storage can be used as a short - term source of goods for downstream. If the Strait closure lasts too long, the fundamentals are expected to tighten further [1] - For low - sulfur fuel oil, although the direct export share from the Middle East is not high, refineries in the Asia - Pacific region have reduced their production due to insufficient raw materials, leading to a passive decline in output. In addition, the high premium in the diesel market has a boosting effect on the low - sulfur fuel oil market. Currently, the diesel crack spread remains strong, supporting the valuation of low - sulfur fuel oil [2] Strategy - For high - sulfur fuel oil, it is recommended to wait and see due to short - term sharp fluctuations - For low - sulfur fuel oil, it is recommended to wait and see due to short - term sharp fluctuations - No strategies are provided for cross - variety, cross - period, spot - futures, and options [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend, resistance, and support levels of various futures contracts in April 2026 [2]. - The report also analyzes the market performance of various futures on March 31, 2026, and provides short - term and long - term trend predictions for April 1, 2026, and the whole month of April 2026 [13][18]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Macro Information and Trading Tips - The US, Iran, and other countries have expressed their stances on the end of the war. The US is seeking an agreement to end the war, and Iran is willing to end the war under certain conditions [5]. - China's Minister of Foreign Affairs Wang Yi and Pakistan's Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Dar held talks and put forward five initiatives on the situation in the Gulf and the Middle East [6]. - The central bank's monetary policy committee proposed to use various policy tools to strengthen monetary policy regulation and maintain the stable operation of the financial market [7]. - China's economic sentiment has rebounded, with the manufacturing, non - manufacturing, and comprehensive PMI output indices all returning to the expansion range [7]. - The total operating income of state - owned enterprises from January to February increased slightly year - on - year, while the total profit decreased. The asset - liability ratio increased [7]. - A number of national new regulations will be implemented from April [8]. - The Iran war may cause significant losses to the GDP of Arab countries, increase unemployment, and push more people into poverty. High - end estimates show that the GDP of some countries may shrink [8]. - The US may make a decision on NATO's future after the end of the military operation against Iran [8]. - Some Gulf countries hope that the US will continue the war against Iran, and Iran has warned against a possible US ground war [9]. - The US and Israel launched an attack on an Iranian steel plant [9]. - The Kansas Fed President warned about the impact of the Iran conflict on inflation [9]. - A US federal judge ruled that the Trump administration's termination of the legal status of hundreds of thousands of immigrants was illegal and required the restoration of their status [9]. - NASA announced the countdown to the launch of the "Artemis 2" mission [10]. - The US consumer confidence index rose in March, and inflation expectations increased [10]. - The eurozone's CPI increased in March, and the European Central Bank may raise interest rates in April [10] 2. Commodity Futures - related Information - On March 31, international precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold futures up 3.12% and COMEX silver futures up 6.77% [10]. - On March 31, US oil and Brent oil futures fell. The increase in US API crude oil inventories led to concerns about oversupply [11]. - The average price of regular gasoline in the US reached a nearly 4 - year high [12]. - On March 31, most London base metals rose [12]. - On March 31, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose, and the RMB central parity rate against the US dollar was raised [12]. - On March 31, the US dollar index fell, and most non - US currencies rose [13] 3. Futures Market Analysis and Forecast 3.1 Stock Index Futures - On March 31, the main contracts of stock index futures such as IF2606, IH2606, IC2606, and IM2606 generally showed a downward trend. They faced resistance when rebounding and had increased downward pressure in the short term [13][14][15]. - In April 2026, these contracts are expected to be in a weak - oscillating trend, with specific support and resistance levels provided [18]. - On April 1, 2026, stock index futures are expected to be in a strong - oscillating trend, with corresponding support and resistance levels [18] 3.2 Precious Metal Futures - **Gold Futures**: On March 31, the main contract AU2606 showed a slightly strong - oscillating trend. In April 2026, the main continuous contract is expected to be in a wide - oscillating trend. On April 1, 2026, it is expected to be in a strong - oscillating trend [30]. - **Silver Futures**: On March 31, the main contract AG2606 showed a strong - oscillating upward trend. In April 2026, the main continuous contract is expected to be in a wide - oscillating trend. On April 1, 2026, it is expected to be in a strong - oscillating trend [38] 3.3 Base Metal Futures - **Copper Futures**: On March 31, the main contract CU2605 showed a slightly weak - oscillating downward trend. In April 2026, the main continuous contract is expected to be in a weak - oscillating trend. On April 1, 2026, it is expected to be in a strong - oscillating trend [42]. - **Aluminum Futures**: On March 31, the main contract AL2605 showed an oscillating upward trend. In April 2026, the main continuous contract is expected to be in a strong - wide - oscillating trend. On April 1, 2026, it is expected to be in a strong - oscillating trend [48]. - **Alumina Futures**: On March 31, the main contract AO2605 showed a weak - oscillating downward trend. In April 2026, both AO2605 and AO2609 are expected to be in a strong - oscillating trend [55]. - **Carbonate Lithium Futures**: On March 31, the main contract LC2605 showed a significant downward trend. In April 2026, the main continuous contract is expected to be in a weak - wide - oscillating trend. On April 1, 2026, it is expected to be in a wide - oscillating trend [56] 3.4 Building Material Futures - **Rebar Futures**: On March 31, the main contract RB2605 showed a slightly downward trend. In April 2026, both RB2605 and RB2610 are expected to be in a strong - wide - oscillating trend [63]. - **Iron Ore Futures**: On March 31, the main contract I2605 showed a downward trend. In April 2026, both I2605 and I2609 are expected to be in a strong - oscillating trend. On April 1, 2026, I2605 is expected to be in a strong - oscillating trend [65][66]. - **Coking Coal Futures**: On March 31, the main contract JM2605 showed a significant downward trend. In April 2026, both JM2605 and JM2609 are expected to be in a strong - oscillating trend [72]. - **Glass Futures**: On March 31, the main contract FG605 showed a weak - oscillating downward trend. In April 2026, both FG605 and FG609 are expected to be in a weak - wide - oscillating trend [76]. - **Soda Ash Futures**: On March 31, the main contract SA605 showed a weak - oscillating downward trend. In April 2026, both SA605 and SA609 are expected to be in a weak - wide - oscillating trend [80] 3.5 Energy Futures - **Crude Oil Futures**: On March 31, the main contract SC2605 showed a weak - oscillating downward trend. In April 2026, the main continuous contract is expected to be in a strong - oscillating trend and may reach a new high. On April 1, 2026, it is expected to be in a weak - oscillating trend [85]. - **Fuel Oil Futures**: On March 31, the main contract FU2605 showed a weak - oscillating downward trend. In April 2026, the main continuous contract is expected to be in a strong - oscillating trend and may reach a new high [89]. - **Asphalt Futures**: On March 31, the main contract BU2606 showed a slightly weak - oscillating trend. In April 2026, the main continuous contract is expected to be in a strong - oscillating trend [91] 3.6 Chemical Futures - **Linear Low - Density Polyethylene Futures**: On March 31, the main contract L2605 showed a weak - oscillating downward trend. In April 2026, it is expected to be in a strong - oscillating trend. On April 1, 2026, it is expected to be in a weak - oscillating trend [93]. - **Polypropylene Futures**: On March 31, the main contract PP2605 showed a downward trend. In April 2026, the main continuous contract is expected to be in a strong - oscillating trend. On April 1, 2026, it is expected to be in a weak - oscillating trend [98][99]. - **Styrene Futures**: On March 31, the main contract EB2605 showed a downward trend. In April 2026, the main continuous contract is expected to be in a strong - oscillating trend and may reach a new high. On April 1, 2026, it is expected to be in a weak - oscillating trend [104]. - **PTA Futures**: On March 31, the main contract TA605 showed a downward trend. In April 2026, the main continuous contract is expected to be in a strong - oscillating trend. On April 1, 2026, it is expected to be in a weak - oscillating trend [109]. - **PVC Futures**: On March 31, the main contract V2605 showed a weak - oscillating downward trend. In April 2026, the main continuous contract is expected to be in a wide - oscillating trend. On April 1, 2026, it is expected to be in a wide - oscillating trend [114]. - **Methanol Futures**: On March 31, the main contract MA605 showed a weak - oscillating downward trend. In April 2026, the main continuous contract is expected to be in a strong - oscillating trend. On April 1, 2026, it is expected to be in a weak - oscillating trend [119][120]. - **Ethylene Glycol Futures**: On March 31, the main contract EG2605 showed a weak - oscillating downward trend. On April 1, 2026, it is expected to be in a weak - oscillating trend [125]. - **Butadiene Futures**: On March 31, the main contract BR2605 showed a weak - oscillating downward trend. On April 1, 2026, it is expected to be in a strong - oscillating trend [128]

Report Overview - The report is titled "40 Key Questions in the Oil, Gas, and Shipping Markets under the Strait Blockade" and is published by the Energy and Chemicals Group of Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute on April 1, 2025 [1] 1. Crude Oil: Supply Gap and Price Projection under Strait Blockade 1.1 Supply Loss - The total pre - blockade daily export of various oil products through the Strait of Hormuz was about 20 million barrels, with crude oil accounting for about 15 million barrels. The direct loss of crude oil exports due to the blockade was 14.5 million barrels per day [7] - Even if Saudi Arabia and the UAE fully utilized their pipeline and port diversion capabilities, there was still a potential crude oil export gap of about 10.5 million barrels per day [8] 1.2 Supply Increase from Strategic Reserves and Sanction Relief - The IEA's 32 member countries released 400 million barrels of crude oil and refined oil products. The actual supply increase from the release of reserves was estimated to be up to 1.2 million barrels per day [11] - The combined floating storage of Russian and Iranian crude oil could provide a supply increase of about 1.2 million barrels per day within a month [11] 1.3 Production Shutdown - By the fourth week of the US - Iran conflict, the estimated reduction in Middle - Eastern crude oil production was about 10 million barrels per day, resulting in an 8 - million - barrel - per - day decline in March [12] 1.4 Refining Capacity Decline - As of the end of March, the global refining capacity decline was about 4.6 million barrels per day. If the blockade continued throughout April, the loss could exceed 7 million barrels per day [14] 1.5 Price Projection - Based on the Brent average price of $71 per barrel in February 2026, the report estimated the price increase under different blockade durations. For example, if the blockade lasted for 4 weeks, the Brent price could reach $78 (conservative), $82 (neutral), and $85 (optimistic) [17] 1.6 Arbitrage and Pricing - The core of the price difference between SC and international crude oil is freight, followed by product quality and regional price premiums. After the blockade, Brent and SC have decoupled from traditional Middle - Eastern Dubai/Oman medium - sour crude [18] - In the short - term, the monthly spread of crude oil was at a high level. The report recommended considering long positions in distant - month contracts such as 06, 07, and 08 [21] 1.7 Short - Selling Strategy - The report suggested short - selling Brent dec26 or the Brent main contract and holding the position for 6 - 12 months until the end of the war [22] 2. Gasoline and Diesel: Supply Evolution in the East and West under Geopolitical Impact 2.1 Gasoline Supply in Asia - Pacific before the Conflict - Asia - Pacific was the main area for global refining capacity growth. The increase in refining capacity and the change in raw material structure led to a relatively loose gasoline supply in the region [27] 2.2 Impact on Gasoline Production and Blending in Asia - Pacific after the Conflict - The interruption of Middle - Eastern crude oil exports led to a decline in refinery operations in China and potentially South Korea, resulting in a shortage of basic gasoline components [31] - The rise in crude oil and naphtha prices and export difficulties increased the cost of blending components, pushing up the price of gasoline [31] 2.3 Future Evolution of European Refineries and Gasoline Production - European refineries mainly processed light crude oil from the US and West Africa. The decline in Middle - Eastern crude oil exports might further shift them towards light crude [36] - European gasoline production was expected to bottom out and rebound after April, depending on the refinery processing volume [36] 2.4 Impact of US Production on Western Hemisphere Gasoline Supply and Demand - US refineries were less likely to reduce diesel production due to the high global diesel price and supply shortages in other regions. This might lead to a loss of about 160,000 barrels per day of gasoline production [40] 2.5 Global Diesel Price and Spread Trends - The decline in Middle - Eastern diesel exports led to a shortage of global diesel resources, with a sharp increase in spot and paper prices and a rapid decline in inventory [45] 2.6 Europe as the Focus of the Global Diesel Market - Europe had a weak diesel supply chain, with insufficient domestic production capacity and high external supply dependence, mainly on the Middle East, the US, and India [50] 2.7 US as a Supplier in the Western Hemisphere Diesel Market - The US had a potential diesel production increase of about 480,000 barrels per day, but it might not be able to fill the Middle - Eastern gap during the US gasoline consumption peak [53] 2.8 Asia - Pacific Refining Powers Filling the Middle - Eastern Diesel Gap - China, South Korea, and India were the main diesel suppliers in the Asia - Pacific market. However, China might reduce exports, South Korea's diesel yield might be compressed, and India's exports might have an upper limit [60] 3. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Micro - Market Structure under Geopolitical Issues 3.1 Iran's Position and Trade Flow in the Global Fuel Oil Market - Iran was the second - largest fuel oil exporter in the Middle East, with an annual export volume of about 15 - 18 million tons, mainly high - sulfur fuel oil [66] 3.2 Impact on Production and Export of Other Countries in the Strait - The production and export of Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the UAE were affected. Saudi Arabia's exports were threatened, Iraq's export capacity was restricted, and the UAE's transshipment role in Fujairah was limited [72] 3.3 Russia and Latin America Filling the Middle - Eastern Supply Gap - Russia's high - sulfur fuel oil exports had an upward trend, but its production was limited by drone attacks and sanctions. Latin America's exports were mostly directed to the US, and high freight rates restricted its ability to supply the Asia - Pacific [77] 3.4 Asia - Pacific Low - Sulfur Market Gap - The Asia - Pacific low - sulfur market faced a supply shortage, with losses from Kuwait, Indonesia, and Brazil. However, European low - sulfur prices might provide some supply through arbitrage [78][81] 3.5 Factors Determining Domestic Low - Sulfur Production - Domestic low - sulfur production depended on the processing volume of major refineries and the yield of refined oil products. As the peak consumption season for gasoline and diesel approached, the growth of low - sulfur production might be limited [85] 3.6 Potential Expansion of Fuel Oil Demand in Shipping and Power Generation - Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East might lead to increased fuel consumption in shipping due to longer voyages and higher speeds. In the power generation sector, high - sulfur fuel oil demand in the Middle East was expected to increase seasonally [89][93] 4. LNG: Global LNG Balance under Supply Risk 4.1 Duration of Middle - Eastern LNG Supply Interruption - Qatar's supply interruption was expected to last at least until May, and Train 4&6's production reduction would continue until 2027. The supply interruption of Qatar and the UAE for one month would result in a reduction of about 6.9 million tons of LNG supply [103] 4.2 Supply - Side Balance Sheet Changes - In 2026, the global LNG production capacity growth rate was expected to decrease due to Qatar's facility losses. In the long - term, the global production capacity growth trend remained [106] 4.3 Regions with Significant Import Source Impact - Qatar's exports were mainly directed to Asia, especially China, India, South Korea, and Pakistan. South Asian countries were more dependent on Middle - Eastern imports [109] 4.4 Acceptance of High Prices by Asia - Pacific Demand Countries - Demand countries showed differentiation. South Asia and Southeast Asia had high dependence on Qatar's imports and weak infrastructure, while Northeast Asia had low short - term acceptance of high - price spot LNG [113] 4.5 Seasonal Gap after Demand Feedback - The estimated actual demand gap caused by one - month and two - month Middle - Eastern supply interruptions was 5.3 million tons and 10.6 million tons respectively. The demand gap might turn the annual balance sheet from loose to tight in 3 - 6 months [116] 4.6 Impact of European Stockpiling Demand on Annual Supply - Demand Balance - In the short - term, Europe's short - term stockpiling urgency decreased. In winter, the stockpiling demand would increase, and there was a seasonal gap during the peak summer electricity demand [119][121] 5. LPG: LPG Gap Calculation under Supply Risk 5.1 Middle - Eastern LPG Supply Reduction - The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz led to a sharp decline in Middle - Eastern LPG exports. The supply gaps of C3 and C4 were about 2 million and 1.8 million tons per month respectively [126] 5.2 US as an Alternative Supplier - The US had limited ability to increase LPG exports in the short - term due to full - capacity operation at ports, equipment breakdowns, and a mismatch in product ratios [132] 5.3 LPG Supply - Demand Gap - The chemical demand for LPG was elastic, while the combustion demand was rigid. Even considering the US's increased exports and Iran's normal exports, there was still a combustion - end gap of 400,000 - 600,000 tons per month [135] 6. Shipping: Main Shipping Market Dynamics under Middle - Eastern Geopolitical Conflicts 6.1 Strait of Hormuz Passage Tracking Indicators - In late March, the number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz was significantly lower than normal, and most of the passages were outbound [138][140] 6.2 Freight Rate Trends - The freight rates of various types of ships, including crude tankers, product tankers, LPG carriers, LNG carriers, and container ships, showed different trends. Generally, the freight rates were affected by the geopolitical situation in the Middle East [146][151][158] 6.3 Ship Deployment Ratios - The east - west deployment ratio of oil tankers in the Suez Canal and the Atlantic - Pacific deployment ratio of bulk carriers changed due to the Middle - Eastern situation [167][169] 6.4 Impact on the Shipping Insurance Market - The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East led to a significant increase in war - risk insurance rates. Insurance has become a key constraint on shipping [173][174] 6.5 Container Liner Companies' Operational Adjustments - Maersk, CMA CGM, and COSCO Shipping adjusted their routes and introduced multimodal transport solutions to deal with the Middle - Eastern logistics challenges [176][177][178] 6.6 Mandeb Strait Passage Status - In 2025, the passage volume of different ship types through the Mandeb Strait declined compared to 2024. After the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz in March 2026, the number of crude tankers passing through the Mandeb Strait increased [179]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend of various futures contracts in March 2026 and on March 31, 2026. Index futures are expected to be weakly volatile, while lithium carbonate, crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polypropylene, styrene, and ethylene glycol futures are expected to be strongly volatile [1][2]. - The report also analyzes the impact of macro - news and market conditions on the futures market, such as the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, Fed's interest - rate policies, and domestic and international economic policies [5][6][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - On March 30, 2026, the A - share market bottomed out and rebounded, with the non - ferrous metal sector surging and power stocks slumping. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.24%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.25%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.68%. The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 0.81%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index hit a new low since early April last year [14]. - The U.S. three major stock indexes closed mixed on March 30, 2026. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.11%, the S&P 500 Index fell 0.39%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 0.73%. European three major stock indexes closed up across the board [15]. 3.2 Macro - news - The G7 energy ministers, finance ministers, and central bank governors held a meeting to assess the impact of the Middle East situation on the energy market, global economy, and financial stability, and were prepared to take coordinated actions if necessary [9]. - The U.S. and Iran's negotiation progress was volatile, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and policy uncertainties increased, which affected the market sentiment [15]. 3.3 Futures Contracts Analysis 3.3.1 Index Futures - On March 30, 2026, the four major index futures contracts (IF2606, IH2606, IC2606, IM2606) generally showed a weakly volatile trend. In March 2026, they are expected to be weakly volatile, and on March 31, 2026, they are likely to continue this trend [11][12][13][15][16]. 3.3.2 Precious Metal Futures - Gold futures: On March 30, 2026, the gold futures main contract AU2606 oscillated upward. In March 2026, it is expected to be weakly volatile, and on March 31, 2026, it is likely to oscillate and consolidate [30]. - Silver futures: On March 30, 2026, the silver futures main contract AG2606 oscillated upward. In March 2026, it is expected to be weakly volatile, and on March 31, 2026, it is likely to oscillate and consolidate [38]. 3.3.3 Base Metal Futures - Copper futures: On March 30, 2026, the copper futures main contract CU2605 was weakly volatile. In March 2026, it is expected to be weakly volatile, and on March 31, 2026, it is likely to be weakly volatile [42]. - Aluminum futures: On March 30, 2026, the aluminum futures main contract AL2605 oscillated upward strongly. In March 2026, it is expected to have a wide - range oscillation, and on March 31, 2026, it is likely to oscillate and consolidate [46]. - Tin futures: On March 30, 2026, the tin futures main contract SN2605 oscillated upward strongly. In March 2026, it is expected to be weakly volatile, and on March 31, 2026, it is likely to oscillate and consolidate [51]. 3.3.4 Energy and Chemical Futures - Crude oil futures: On March 30, 2026, the crude oil futures main contract SC2605 oscillated upward strongly. In March 2026, it is expected to be strongly volatile and may hit a new high since listing, and on March 31, 2026, it is likely to be strongly volatile [85]. - Fuel oil futures: On March 30, 2026, the fuel oil futures main contract FU2605 oscillated upward strongly. In March 2026, it is expected to be strongly volatile and may hit a new high since listing, and on March 31, 2026, it is likely to be strongly volatile [90]. - Asphalt futures: On March 30, 2026, the asphalt futures main contract BU2606 was weakly volatile. In March 2026, it is expected to be strongly volatile, and on March 31, 2026, it is likely to be strongly volatile [94]. - Polypropylene, linear low - density polyethylene, PTA, PVC, methanol, ethylene glycol, etc.: These futures contracts have different trends on March 30, 2026, and are generally expected to be strongly volatile in March 2026 and have corresponding trends on March 31, 2026 [99][103][112][117][121][126]. 3.3.5 Agricultural Futures - Palm oil futures: On March 30, 2026, the palm oil futures main contract P2605 oscillated upward. On March 31, 2026, it is likely to be strongly volatile [130].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to the escalation of the Middle - East war situation and military threats from Houthi rebels supported by Iran, the Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market structure has risen slightly. With the Middle - East entering the power - generation season in April, more high - sulfur fuel oil will be consumed. Meanwhile, the marine fuel demand in Singapore is stable, and the market supply may be insufficient. The low - sulfur fuel oil market in Singapore remains tight, and with geopolitical support, fuel oil prices are operating at a high level. The FU2605 is expected to operate in the range of 4550 - 4700, and the LU2605 in the range of 5150 - 5350 [3]. - The market is driven by the resonance of supply affected by geopolitical risks and neutral demand. The risk is a quick cease - fire in the Middle - East [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Hints - The price of the FU main contract futures increased from 4439 to 4621, a rise of 182 or 4.10%. The price of the LU main contract futures increased from 5109 to 5380, a rise of 271 or 5.30%. The FU basis decreased from 570 to 535, a decrease of 34.81 or 6.11%. The LU basis decreased from 859 to 620, a decrease of 240 or 28% [5]. - In the spot market, the price of Zhoushan high - sulfur fuel remained unchanged at 866.00, while the price of Zhoushan low - sulfur fuel increased from 860.00 to 865.00, a rise of 5.00 or 0.58%. The price of Singapore high - sulfur fuel increased from 711.79 to 733.43, a rise of 21.64 or 3.04%. The price of Singapore low - sulfur fuel increased from 850.50 to 855.44, a rise of 4.94 or 0.58%. The price of Middle - East high - sulfur fuel increased from 648.82 to 670.49, a rise of 21.67 or 3.34%. The price of Singapore diesel increased from 1570.21 to 1724.27, a rise of 154.06 or 9.81% [6]. 3.2 Long and Short Concerns - Bullish factors: Middle - East situation turmoil and poor strait passage [4]. - Bearish factors: The Trump administration's TACO reappearance and upstream crude oil under pressure [4]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - Fundamental: The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market structure has risen slightly due to the Middle - East war situation. The cash spreads of high - sulfur fuel oil and 0.5% sulfur marine fuel both fell to a three - week low in the week ending March 27 [3]. - Basis: The basis of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is 535 yuan/ton, and that of Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil is 620 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [3]. - Inventory: The Singapore fuel oil inventory in the week of March 25 was 2659.9 million barrels, an increase of 173 million barrels [3]. - Market trend: The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward [3]. - Main positions: The main position of high - sulfur fuel oil is short, with short positions decreasing. The main position of low - sulfur fuel oil is long, with long positions increasing [3]. 3.4 Spread Data No information provided. 3.5 Inventory Data - The Singapore fuel oil inventory data from January 7, 2026, to March 25, 2026, shows the inventory and its changes over time. For example, on January 7, 2026, the inventory was 2270.9 million barrels with an increase of 5 million barrels, and on March 25, 2026, the inventory was 2659.9 million barrels with an increase of 173 million barrels [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View No clear core view presented in the content. The report mainly provides daily arbitrage data for various futures varieties on March 31, 2026. 3. Summary by Directory I. Thermal Coal - The report shows the basis and spread data of thermal coal from March 24 to March 30, 2026. The basis values were -50.4, -45.4, -41.4, -40.4, -40.4 respectively, and the spreads (5 - 1, 9 - 1, 9 - 5) were all 0.0 during this period [2]. II. Energy and Chemicals - **Energy Commodities**: It includes basis data of fuel oil, crude oil, and asphalt from March 24 to March 30, 2026. For example, the basis of INE crude oil on March 30 was 540.36, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt was 0.1641 [8]. - **Chemical Commodities**: - **Basis**: The basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP from March 24 to March 30, 2026 are presented. For instance, the basis of rubber on March 30 was -190 [10]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: The spreads of 5 - 1, 9 - 1, and 9 - 5 for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are given. For example, the 5 - 1 spread of rubber was -800 [11]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The spreads of LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3 * methanol from March 24 to March 30, 2026 are provided. For example, the LLDPE - PVC spread on March 30 was 3360 [11]. III. Black Metals - **Basis**: The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from March 24 to March 30, 2026 are shown. For example, the basis of rebar on March 30 was 111.0 [20][21]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: The spreads of 5 - 1, 9(10) - 1, and 9(10) - 5 for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are presented. For example, the 5 - 1 spread of rebar was -44.0 [20]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The ratios of rebar to iron ore, rebar to coke, coke to coking coal, and the spread of rebar - hot rolled coil from March 24 to March 30, 2026 are provided. For example, the rebar to iron ore ratio on March 30 was 3.85 [20]. IV. Non - ferrous Metals - **Domestic Market**: The domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from March 24 to March 30, 2026 are given. For example, the basis of copper on March 30 was -380 [30]. - **London Market**: The LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on March 30, 2026 are presented. For example, the LME spread of copper was (82.55) [33]. V. Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data of soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, corn, etc. from March 24 to March 30, 2026 are shown. For example, the basis of soybeans on March 30 was 6 [40]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: The spreads of 5 - 1, 9 - 1, and 9 - 5 for various agricultural products are provided. For example, the 5 - 1 spread of soybeans was -54 [40]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The ratios and spreads of various agricultural products from March 24 to March 30, 2026 are presented. For example, the ratio of soybeans to corn on March 30 was 1.94 [40]. VI. Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from March 24 to March 30, 2026 are given. For example, the basis of CSI 300 on March 30 was 77.95 [51]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: The spreads of next - month to current - month and next - quarter to current - quarter for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are provided. For example, the next - month to current - month spread of CSI 300 was -19.8 [51].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trends of various futures contracts on March 30, 2026, and the overall trends in March 2026. Index futures are expected to be weak and volatile, while aluminum, lithium carbonate, crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polypropylene, styrene, p - xylene, methanol, and ethylene glycol futures are expected to be strong and volatile. Silver, platinum, and palladium futures are expected to be weak and volatile [1][2]. - The report also provides macro - news and trading tips, including government policies, international relations, and economic data, which may affect the futures market [7]. - Analyzes the market performance of various futures on March 27, 2026, and provides support and resistance levels for each futures contract [21]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Forecast - **March 30, 2026 Forecast** - Index futures (IF2606, IH2606, IC2606, IM2606) are expected to be weak and volatile, with specific support and resistance levels provided [2][27]. - Ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond futures are expected to be strong and volatile, with corresponding support and resistance levels [2][45][48]. - Gold, silver, platinum, and palladium futures are expected to be weak and volatile, with support and resistance levels [2][55][67][72][77]. - Copper, zinc, nickel, and tin futures have different trends, with support and resistance levels [2][81][96][100][104]. - Aluminum, alumina, and lithium carbonate futures are expected to be strong and volatile, with support and resistance levels [2][87][91][108]. - Steel - related futures (rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coking coal) have different trends, with support and resistance levels [2][113][115][118][124]. - Glass and soda ash futures are expected to be weak and volatile, with support and resistance levels [2][127][134]. - Crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt futures are expected to be strong and volatile, with support and resistance levels [2][140][145][149]. - Polyethylene, polypropylene, styrene, PTA, p - xylene, PVC, methanol, ethylene glycol, butadiene, and soybean meal futures are expected to be strong and volatile, with support and resistance levels [2][152][159][164][169][172][175][180][185][188][189]. - **March 2026 Forecast** - Index futures (IF2606, IH2606, IC2606, IM2606) are expected to be weak and volatile, with specific support and resistance levels [5]. - Gold, silver, platinum, and palladium futures are expected to be weak and volatile, with support and resistance levels [5][55][67][72][77]. - Copper, zinc, nickel, and tin futures are expected to be weak and volatile, with support and resistance levels [5][81][96][100][104]. - Aluminum and lithium carbonate futures are expected to have wide - range oscillations, with support and resistance levels [5][87][108]. - Alumina, iron ore, coking coal, and soda ash futures are expected to be strong and volatile, with support and resistance levels [5][91][118][124][134]. - Glass futures are expected to be weak and have wide - range oscillations, with support and resistance levels [5][127]. - Crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt futures are expected to be strong and volatile, with support and resistance levels, and crude oil and fuel oil may hit new highs [5][140][145][149]. - Polyethylene, polypropylene, styrene, PTA, PVC, and methanol futures are expected to be strong and volatile, with support and resistance levels [5][152][159][164][169][175][180]. 3.2 Macro - news and Trading Tips - Government policies include promoting service industry development, establishing trade and investment working groups between China and the EU, and launching trade barrier investigations against the US [7]. - International relations involve the Iran - US - Israel conflict, including military actions, peace - negotiation efforts, and the impact on the Middle East situation [9][10][11]. - Economic data shows that from January to February, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in China increased by 15.2% year - on - year, and the profit of high - tech manufacturing increased by 58.7% [7]. 3.3 Futures Market Analysis on March 27, 2026 - Index futures (IF2606, IH2606, IC2606, IM2606) had different opening prices, showed upward trends after opening, and had specific closing prices and price ranges [21][22]. - Treasury bond futures (T2606, TL2606) had different opening prices, showed different trends, and had specific closing prices and price ranges [44][47]. - Gold, silver, platinum, and palladium futures had different opening prices, showed upward trends after opening, and had specific closing prices and price ranges [50][67][72][77]. - Copper, aluminum, alumina, zinc, nickel, and tin futures had different opening prices, showed different trends, and had specific closing prices and price ranges [81][86][91][96][100][104]. - Steel - related futures (rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coking coal) had different opening prices, showed different trends, and had specific closing prices and price ranges [113][115][118][123]. - Glass and soda ash futures had different opening prices, showed different trends, and had specific closing prices and price ranges [127][134]. - Crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt futures had different opening prices, showed different trends, and had specific closing prices and price ranges [138][145][148]. - Polyethylene, polypropylene, styrene, PTA, p - xylene, PVC, methanol, ethylene glycol, butadiene, and soybean meal futures had different opening prices, showed different trends, and had specific closing prices and price ranges [152][158][164][169][172][175][179][185][188][189].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties on March 30, 2026, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, covering aspects such as basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads [1][6][23][29][40][51] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Power Coal - The report shows the basis and inter - period spreads of power coal from March 23 to March 27, 2026. The basis values are - 58.4, - 50.4, - 45.4, - 41.4, and - 40.4 respectively, and the inter - period spreads (5 - 1, 9 - 1, 9 - 5) are all 0 [1][2] 3.2 Energy Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - From March 23 to March 27, 2026, the basis of INE crude oil is 339.44, 345.10, 259.80, 50.55, and 105.35 respectively; the basis of fuel oil is 374.15, 208.78, 103.65, 222.50, and 151.50 respectively; the crude oil / asphalt ratio is 0.1762, 0.1686, 0.1668, 0.1624, and 0.1641 respectively [7] 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - Inter - period spreads: For rubber, 5 - 1 is - 820, 9 - 1 is - 765, 9 - 5 is 55; for methanol, 5 - 1 is 369, 9 - 1 is 107, 9 - 5 is - 262; etc. - Inter - variety spreads: For example, on March 27, 2026, LLDPE - PVC is 3187, LLDPE - PP is - 428, etc. - Basis: The basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, etc. from March 23 to March 27, 2026 are provided [11][12] 3.3 Black Metals - Inter - period spreads: For example, for rebar, 5 - 1 is - 51.0, 9(10) - 1 is - 24.0, 9(10) - 5 is 27.0; for iron ore, 5 - 1 is 45.5, 9(10) - 1 is 19.5, 9(10) - 5 is - 26.0 - Inter - variety spreads: On March 27, 2026, the rebar / iron ore ratio is 3.84, the rebar / coke ratio is 1.7834, etc. - Basis: The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from March 23 to March 27, 2026 are provided [22][23] 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - The domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from March 23 to March 27, 2026 are presented, such as - 380 for copper on March 27, 2026 [32] 3.4.2 London Market - On March 27, 2026, the LME spreads of copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. are provided, along with the Shanghai - London ratio, CIF, domestic spot price, and import profit and loss [35] 3.5 Agricultural Products - Basis: The basis data of soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, etc. from March 23 to March 27, 2026 are given, such as 27 for soybeans on March 27, 2026 - Inter - period spreads: For example, for soybeans, 5 - 1 is - 50, 9 - 1 is - 6, 9 - 5 is 44 - Inter - variety spreads: On March 27, 2026, the soybean / corn ratio is 1.93, the soybean oil / soybean meal ratio is 2.95, etc. [41] 3.6 Stock Index Futures - Basis: The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from March 23 to March 27, 2026 are provided, such as 75.17 for CSI 300 on March 27, 2026 - Inter - period spreads: For CSI 300, the next - month - current - month spread is - 19.0, the next - quarter - current - quarter spread is - 81.8; for SSE 50, the next - month - current - month spread is - 4.2, the next - quarter - current - quarter spread is - 40.4; etc. [52]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, crude oil showed a high - level decline, and Singapore fuel oil prices first rose and then fell. High - sulfur fuel oil closed at 4,566 yuan/ton, down 3.99% for the week, and low - sulfur fuel oil closed at 5,367 yuan/ton, down 4.09% for the week. [3] - The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market structure weakened due to weak downstream marine fuel demand and a continuous decline in the spot premium of 0.5% sulfur marine fuel oil. Singapore's low - sulfur marine fuel oil market supply is relatively sufficient, and shipowners reduce or postpone purchases due to high prices. [3] - The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market structure also showed weakness. The spot premium of Singapore 380CST high - sulfur fuel oil fell to a more than two - week low, and the spot market buying interest was low. High - sulfur fuel oil supply is more abundant than low - sulfur fuel oil. [4] - As long as the war between the US, Israel and Iran disrupts normal trade flows, market concerns about supply will support the high - sulfur fuel oil and 0.5% sulfur marine fuel oil markets to remain relatively strong in the short term. [4] - Crude oil prices will mainly fluctuate significantly in the future, and fuel oil prices are expected to continue to fluctuate widely with the market. For high - sulfur fuel oil, short - term operation is recommended in the range of 4,400 - 5,000 yuan/ton, and for low - sulfur fuel oil, short - term operation is recommended in the range of 5,200 - 5,800 yuan/ton. [4] Group 3: Summary According to the Catalog 1. Weekly Viewpoints - Crude oil declined last week, and Singapore fuel oil prices fluctuated. Low - sulfur and high - sulfur fuel oil markets both showed weakness, but supply concerns may support the market in the short term. Future fuel oil prices will fluctuate with the market, and specific short - term operation ranges are given. [3][4] 2. Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures prices**: The FU main contract price dropped from 4,803 yuan to 4,571 yuan, a decrease of 4.83%; the LU main contract price dropped from 5,718 yuan to 5,290 yuan, a decrease of 7.49%. [5] - **Spot prices**: The prices of various types of fuel oil in different regions all increased. For example, the price of Zhoushan high - sulfur fuel oil increased from 827.00 to 866.00, an increase of 4.72%; the price of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil increased from 656.37 to 711.79, an increase of 8.44%. [6] 3. Fundamental Data - **Consumption data**: There are consumption data charts for Singapore and China fuel oil, but specific numerical analysis is not provided in the text. [7][9] - **Gross profit data**: There is a chart of Shandong fuel oil coking gross profit, but specific numerical analysis is not provided in the text. [10] 4. Inventory Data - **Singapore fuel oil inventory**: The inventory data from January 14, 2026, to March 25, 2026, shows that the inventory has fluctuations. For example, on January 14, 2026, the inventory was 2,290.9 barrels, and on March 25, 2026, it was 2,659.9 barrels. [12] - **Zhoushan Port fuel oil inventory**: There is a chart of the inventory trend, but specific numerical analysis is not provided in the text. [15] 5. Spread Data - There is a chart of the high - low sulfur futures spread, but specific numerical analysis is not provided in the text. [17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Based on weekly technical indicator signals, different sectors of commodity and financial futures show various trends. In the commodity futures, precious metals, non - ferrous metals, black and shipping, energy, chemical, and agricultural product sectors have different signals of rising, falling, or oscillation. In the financial futures, stock index futures mostly show bearish signals, while treasury bond futures show an oscillatory trend [1][2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1有色及贵金属板块 - Precious metals: Gold shows a bearish signal, and silver shows an oscillatory signal. Non - ferrous metals: Zinc, industrial silicon, and lithium carbonate show bullish signals, aluminum shows a bearish signal, and the rest show oscillatory signals. For example, Shanghai Aluminum is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with a weekly "umbrella line" but no reversal, a shrinking MACD red column, and a narrowing Bollinger Band [9][10][13] 3.2黑色及航运板块 - Hot - rolled coil, coking coal, and manganese silicon show bullish signals, and the rest, including European container shipping, show oscillatory signals. For example, rebar is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with a flat weekly line, a MACD death - cross above the zero - axis on the daily line, and the price touching the MA60 [18][19][24] 3.3能源及化工板块 - In the energy sector, crude oil, asphalt, and LPG show bullish signals, while fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil show oscillatory signals. In the chemical sector, soda ash, 20 - rubber, methanol, PTA, etc. show bullish signals, and the rest show oscillatory signals. For example, pulp is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with a bearish monthly line, weakening upward momentum on the weekly line, and a MACD running below the zero - axis on the daily line [31][32][35] 3.4农产品板块 - Soybean oil, sugar, soybean No. 2, palm oil, rapeseed oil, eggs, and red dates show bullish signals, soybean No. 1, rapeseed meal, and apples show bearish signals, and the rest show oscillatory signals. For example, corn is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with a bullish weekly line but a shrinking red column and a MACD green column expanding on the daily line [40][41][45] 3.5股指期货板块 - Shanghai 50, CSI 500, CSI 1000, and SSE 300 stock index futures all show bearish signals. For example, IC CSI 500 futures and IF SSE 300 futures are expected to oscillate in the short - term [50][51][53] 3.6国债期货板块 - 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures all show oscillatory signals. For example, the 10 - year treasury bond futures are expected to oscillate and repair in the short - term, and the 2 - year treasury bond futures are expected to oscillate in the short - term [62][63][66]