宝城期货能化板块数据周报 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 11615 专业研究·创造价值 2025 年 10 月 10 日 能化板块 核心观点 能源化工：受美国联邦政府陷入"停摆"影响，节后国内外原 油期货价格呈现偏弱格局。其中，国内原油期货 2511 合约跌幅较大。 在弱势成本因素凸显的背景下，拖累其他能源化工商品期货也出现弱 势下行的走势。除了成本因素外，其他商品受库存回升压制，继续维 持偏弱姿态运行。短期来看，成本因子依然是决定后市能化商品走势 的重要因素，预计在原油期货价格偏弱拖累下，下周能化商品期货板 块或维持震荡偏弱的走势。 宝城期货金融研究所 姓名：陈栋 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F0251793 投资咨询证号：Z0001617 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：chendong@bcqhgs.com 报告日期：2025 年 10 月 10 日 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货 投资咨询资格证书，本人承诺 以勤勉的职业态度，独立、客 观地出具本报告。本报告清晰 准确地反映了本人的研 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-10-10燃料油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 5 价差数据 库存数据 燃料油： 6、预期：隔夜哈马斯与以色列停火协议开始实施，地缘担忧减弱，俄罗斯制裁问题暂未有更多消息，缺乏地缘 担忧支撑油价下行，燃油预计跟随下行，且航运需求未有提升，发电需求减弱，后市压力较大。FU2601：2770- 2820区间运行，LU2511：3300-3360区间运行 1、基本面：尽管符合规格的含硫0.5%低硫燃料油的东西方套利窗口在近几周基本处于关闭状态，但用于调和低 硫燃料油的组分油总体流入量持续增加；尽管目前高硫燃料油船燃需求保持稳定，但随着中东地区夏季用电高 峰需求季节消退，来自该地区的货物流入量将增 ...

运筹帷幄 决胜千里 宝城期货品种套利数据日报（2025 年 10 月 10 日） 一、动力煤 | 商品 | | 动力煤 | （元/吨） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 基差 | 5月-1月 | 9月-1月 | 9月-5月 | | 2025/10/09 | -102.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/09/30 | -102.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/09/29 | -102.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/09/26 | -100.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/09/25 | -95.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 www.bcqhgs.com 1 杭州市求是路8号公元大厦东南裙楼1-5层 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 二、能源化工 www.bcqhgs.com 2 杭州市求是路8号公元大厦东南裙楼1-5层 2025/10/09 2025/09/30 2025/09/29 2025/09/26 ...

金融期货早评 宏观：国内需求端仍是核心症结 【市场资讯】1）美联储纪要：多数官员称今年继续宽松可能适宜，少数人本来可能支持 9 月不降息。2）美国政府关门逾一周还无解：参议院第六次否决两党临时拨款议案。3）美 国国会预算办公室：上财年美国联邦政府预算赤字 1.8 万亿美元，与 2024 财年近乎持平。 4）普京：必须确保特别军事行动设定的所有目标都无条件实现。俄副外长：俄美元首会晤 推力已基本耗尽，"战斧"导弹可致局势本质变化。5）消息人士称哈马斯已同意加沙停火协 议，特朗普：以色列与哈马斯已签署"20 点计划"第一阶段协议，本周末或去中东。 【核心逻辑】国内方面，国庆假期人员出行整体表现不弱。假期第六天，全社会跨区域人 员流动量 29819.42 万人次，环比增长 2.4%，同比增长 7%；假期前半程交通出行人数再创 新高，水路、民航旅客发送量亦实现增长。不过，国庆假期整体出行情况或不及五一假期。 整体来看，后续经济修复的关键仍需聚焦居民需求端。当前，供需两端政策正逐步推进， 后续或仍有增量政策出台，以推动物价平稳回升。需注意的是，政策出台的关键触发因素 或为经济数据超预期下滑，且政策基调仍以托底为主。而海 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the Baocheng Futures Variety Arbitrage Data Daily Report for September 30, 2025, covering multiple commodity sectors including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures [1] Group 2: Power Coal - The power coal data shows the basis from September 23 to September 29, 2025. The basis gradually decreased from -95.4 yuan/ton on September 23 to -102.4 yuan/ton on September 29, while the spreads of 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, and 9 - month minus 5 - month remained 0.0 [2] Group 3: Energy Chemicals Energy Commodities - For energy commodities, data on fuel oil, INE crude oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt are presented. The basis and price ratios of these commodities changed from September 23 to September 29, 2025. For example, the basis of INE crude oil was 15.24 yuan/ton on September 23 and 13.03 yuan/ton on September 29 [7] Chemical Commodities - In the chemical sector, the basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP are provided. The basis of these commodities fluctuated from September 23 to September 29, 2025. For instance, the basis of rubber decreased from -825 yuan/ton on September 23 to -825 yuan/ton on September 29 [9] - The cross - period spreads and cross - variety spreads of chemical commodities are also given. For cross - period spreads, different spreads such as 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, and 9 - month minus 5 - month are shown for various chemicals. For cross - variety spreads, spreads like LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol are presented with their values changing from September 23 to September 29, 2025 [11] Group 4: Black Metals - The black metal data includes cross - period spreads and cross - variety spreads, as well as basis data. For cross - period spreads, values for 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month(10) minus 1 - month, and 9 - month(10) minus 5 - month are given for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal. For cross - variety spreads, ratios such as rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil are presented. The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal also changed from September 23 to September 29, 2025 [20][21] Group 5: Non - Ferrous Metals Domestic Market - In the domestic non - ferrous metal market, the basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin are provided from September 23 to September 29, 2025. The basis values of these metals fluctuated during this period [28] London Market - In the London market, data on LME non - ferrous metals including copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin are presented. Information such as LME forward premium/discount, Shanghai - London ratio, CIF price, domestic spot price, and import profit/loss are given for September 29, 2025 [33] Group 6: Agricultural Products - The agricultural product data includes basis, cross - period spreads, and cross - variety spreads. For basis, values of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, corn, etc. are shown from September 23 to September 29, 2025. The cross - period spreads are calculated for different months (5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 5 - month) for various agricultural products. The cross - variety spreads such as the ratio of soybeans No.1 to corn, soybeans No.2 to corn, etc. are also presented with their values changing over the period [38] Group 7: Stock Index Futures - The stock index futures data includes basis and cross - period spreads. The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are provided from September 23 to September 29, 2025. The cross - period spreads of the next - month minus the current - month and the next - quarter minus the current - quarter are given for these stock index futures [49]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 燃料油周报 （9.22-9.26） 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 周度观点 2 期现价格 3 基本面数据 4 5 价差数据 库存数据 周度观点 燃料油周评：上周，国际原油整体提升，燃料油价格同时受到俄罗斯出口禁令延期影响上行强劲，高硫 报收2972元/吨，周涨6.29%，低硫报收3525元/吨，周涨3.92%。 当前含硫0.5%船用燃油市场的主要问题仍在于库存充足，在当前市场结构下，低硫燃料油供应难以释放， 因为无人愿意以贴水价格销售。同时，近期低硫燃料油需求将保持温和，询盘量有限。低硫船用燃料油的疲 软走势导致新加坡低硫燃料油与高硫燃料油现货价差（即Hi-5价差）收窄。不过贸易消息人士表示，亚洲地区 炼厂秋季检修可能在未来几周内削减区域供应，或 ...

2025 年 9 月 29 日 股指期货将偏强震荡 黄金、白银期货价格再创上市以来新 高 原油、燃料油期货将偏强震荡 焦煤、玻璃期货将震荡 偏弱 螺纹钢、铁矿石期货将偏弱震荡 陶金峰 期货投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 【正文】 【声明】 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构 成具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行 作出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【期货行情前瞻要点】 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期今日期货主力合约行情走势大概率如 下： 股指期货将偏强震荡：IF2512 阻力位 4562 和 4588 点，支撑位 4510 和 4483 点；IH2512 阻力位 2965 和 2981 点，支撑位 2935 和 2923 点；IC2512 阻力位 7132 和 7213 点，支撑位 7051 和 7 ...

Report Summary 1. Overnight Night Market Trends - Domestic futures contracts showed mixed performance. Shanghai silver rose 3.90%, fuel oil nearly 2%, SC crude oil and low-sulfur fuel oil (LU) over 1%. On the downside, coking coal and glass dropped over 3%, coke and pulp over 2%, and soda ash, caustic soda, rebar, and rubber over 1% [3]. - International precious metals generally closed higher. COMEX gold futures rose 0.50% to $3789.8 per ounce, with a weekly gain of 2.27%; COMEX silver futures rose 2.77% to $46.365 per ounce, with a weekly gain of 7.95% [4]. - International oil prices fluctuated narrowly. WTI crude futures rose 0.32% to $65.19 per barrel, with a weekly gain of 4.47%; Brent crude futures rose 0.35% to $68.82 per barrel, with a weekly gain of 4.21% [5]. - London base metals all declined. LME zinc fell 1.37% to $2886.50 per ton, with a weekly loss of 0.09%; LME nickel fell 0.81% to $15155 per ton, with a weekly loss of 0.76%; LME lead fell 0.69% to $2001.50 per ton, with a weekly gain of 0.25%; LME copper fell 0.53% to $10205 per ton, with a weekly gain of 2.16%; LME aluminum fell 0.36% to $2649 per ton, with a weekly loss of 0.84%; LME tin fell 0.07% to $34415.00 per ton, with a weekly gain of 0.71% [5]. - International agricultural futures showed mixed trends. US soybeans rose 0.17%, US corn fell 1.00%, US soybean oil fell 0.24%, US soybean meal rose 0.62%, and US wheat fell 1.52% [7]. 2. Important Information Macro Information - The National Energy Administration released power industry statistics for January - August. As of the end of August, the cumulative installed power generation capacity was 3.69 billion kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 18%. Among them, solar power installed capacity was 1.12 billion kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 48.5%; wind power installed capacity was 0.58 billion kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 22.1%. From January to August, the average utilization hours of power generation equipment were 2105 hours, a decrease of 223 hours compared to the same period last year [9]. - The third-quarter (110th) meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee of the People's Bank of China was held on September 23. The meeting mentioned implementing a moderately loose monetary policy, strengthening counter - cyclical adjustment, and enhancing the coordination between monetary and fiscal policies to promote economic stability and reasonable prices [9]. - Shanghai Shipping Exchange data showed that as of September 26, the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index was 1114.52 points, a decrease of 83.69 points from the previous period; the China Export Containerized Freight Index was 1087.41 points, a 2.9% decrease from the previous period [9]. - The Party Secretary and Director of the State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council held a symposium on the economic operation of some state - owned enterprises, focusing on stabilizing electricity and coal prices and preventing "involutionary" vicious competition [10]. - US consumer spending in August exceeded expectations, and underlying inflation remained stable. Real consumer spending increased 0.4% for the second consecutive month. The Fed's preferred core PCE price index rose 0.2% month - on - month and remained at 2.9% year - on - year, indicating economic robustness [10]. - On September 28, the UN Secretary - General's Office confirmed that six Iran - related sanctions resolutions of the UN Security Council had been re - enacted since 8 p.m. EDT on September 27 [11]. - Hamas stated that it had not received new proposals from mediators, and negotiations with Israel had been at a standstill since an assassination attempt on its leader in Doha [11]. - If the US federal government shuts down, the September employment report scheduled for release this Friday may be delayed [11]. - Trump said he was okay with a government shutdown if necessary. He will meet with four congressional leaders on Monday and attend a meeting with senior military generals on Tuesday [11]. - Richmond Fed President Barkin said upcoming data would determine further Fed rate cuts; Fed Governor Bowman strongly supported the Fed holding only Treasuries and ignoring one - time tariff impacts [12]. Energy and Chemical Futures - As of September 25, East China port methanol inventory was 82.40 tons, a decrease of 2.78 tons from the previous week [14]. - As of September 25, PVC social inventory increased 1.84% month - on - month to 97.13 tons, a 16.23% year - on - year increase. East China inventory was 91.33 tons, a 2.18% month - on - month and 14.86% year - on - year increase [16]. - Seven government departments issued a work plan for the petrochemical industry's stable growth from 2025 - 2026, aiming for an average annual value - added growth of over 5% and addressing issues like fertilizer supply and capacity control [16]. - The arbitrage window for US crude oil exports to Asia may close due to soaring tanker freight rates and lower Middle East oil prices [16]. - OPEC+ may approve an oil production increase of at least 137,000 barrels per day at this week's meeting [17]. Metal Futures - Global alumina production in August 2025 was 1.3301 million tons, compared to 1.2555 million tons in the same period last year and a revised 1.3182 million tons in the previous month. China's estimated production was 0.798 million tons, unchanged from the previous month [19]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange reported a decrease in copper inventory by 7035 tons, aluminum by 3108 tons, lead by 8123 tons, nickel by 826 tons, and tin by 429 tons last week, while zinc inventory increased by 1229 tons [20]. - As of September 25, the national lead ingot social inventory was 42,200 tons, a decrease of 8900 tons from September 22 [20]. - The Indonesian mining minister said that mining companies meeting land - restoration fund requirements could have their mining licenses restored from "suspended" to "normal" [22]. - Eight government departments issued a work plan for the non - ferrous metal industry's stable growth from 2025 - 2026, aiming for an average annual value - added growth of about 5%, a 1.5% average annual increase in ten non - ferrous metal production, and other goals [22]. Black - series Futures - Mysteel data showed that the total imported iron ore inventory at 47 ports was 145.5068 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.69 million tons; at 45 ports, it was 140.0028 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.992 million tons [24]. - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.45%, a 0.47 - percentage - point increase from the previous week and a 6.22 - percentage - point increase from the same period last year. The steel mill profitability rate was 58.01%, a 0.86 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week but a 39.40 - percentage - point increase from the same period last year. The daily hot metal output was 2.4236 million tons, a 13,400 - ton increase from the previous week [24]. - The China Coking Industry Association refuted false information about "forced production cuts" and "joint price increases" [24]. - SteelSilver e - commerce data showed that the total urban inventory this week was 9.0242 million tons, a 3.36% (313,300 - ton) decrease from the previous week. Construction steel inventory was 4.9196 million tons, a 5.10% (264,300 - ton) decrease from the previous week [25]. Agricultural Futures - The US agreed to consider tariff exemptions for Malaysian cocoa and palm oil products [28]. - Analyst Thomas Mielke predicted that global palm oil and soybean oil prices would rise by $100 - $150 per ton from January to June 2026 due to supply tightness [28]. - SPPOMA data showed that from September 1 - 25, Malaysian palm oil yield decreased 3.19% month - on - month, oil extraction rate decreased 0.18% month - on - month, and production decreased 4.14% month - on - month [28]. - SGS data showed that the estimated palm oil exports from Malaysia from September 1 - 25 were 795,947 tons, a 14.73% decrease from the same period last month [29]. - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange announced the premium for alternative delivery products of jujube futures for contracts starting from 2612 [29]. - As of September 25, the inventory of imported cotton at major ports decreased 3.08% week - on - week to 277,200 tons [29]. - As of September 26, the self - breeding and self - raising pig farming profit was a loss of 74.11 yuan per head, and the profit from purchasing piglets for farming was a loss of 236.57 yuan per head [29]. 3. Financial Market Finance - With the A - share market stabilizing, the private placement market has become active. As of September 28, 218 funds from 28 fund companies participated in private placement projects, with a cost of 5.864 billion yuan, exceeding last year's total, and over 90% of placements had floating profits [32]. - Bank wealth management subsidiaries have been more active in the equity market, conducting over 2100 research on A - share listed companies this year, focusing on the GEM and STAR Market. The issuance scale of equity and hybrid wealth management products has reached 72.7 billion yuan, exceeding last year's level [32]. - Many securities analysts expect the A - share market to gradually rise in the fourth quarter, with a focus on the technology growth sector [32]. - 1311 A - share listed companies have issued equity incentive plans this year, compared to 381 in 2024 [33]. - Hefei Youai Zhihé Robot Technology Co., Ltd. applied for listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. If successful, it may become the "first mobile operation robot stock" [33]. - JD Industry submitted a prospectus to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange again, planning to issue about 253.3 million common shares [35]. - Micro - billion Intelligent Manufacturing, a provider of industrial embodied intelligent robots, applied for listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [35]. - Hitcard, a four - year - old card company, is advancing its listing process after obtaining multiple rounds of financing [35]. Industry - Eight departments issued a work plan for the non - ferrous metal industry's stable growth from 2025 - 2026, aiming for value - added growth, resource development, and other goals [36]. - From January to August, national transportation fixed - asset investment was 2.26 trillion yuan, with railway investment at 504.1 billion yuan, highway at 1.5412 trillion yuan, waterway at 143.3 billion yuan, and civil aviation at 70.7 billion yuan [36]. - The State Administration for Market Regulation issued regulations on food safety responsibilities of catering service chain enterprises [36]. - As of September 27, about 200 Chinese cities and counties have issued over 470 policies to stabilize the real estate market this year, and more policies are expected in the fourth quarter [38]. - Guangzhou expanded the scope of housing provident fund withdrawals for housing purchases and elevator renovation [38]. - Changchun adjusted its housing provident fund loan policy, with a minimum down payment of 15% for certain home purchases [38]. - Jiangsu Province suspended its automobile replacement subsidy policy at 24:00 on September 28 [38]. - Shanghai Future Industry Fund completed a capital increase from 10 billion yuan to 15 billion yuan and has invested in cutting - edge fields [39]. - The CSRC announced the 2025 classification evaluation results of securities companies, with 53 A - class companies, 43 B - class companies, and 11 C - class companies [39]. - The cement industry has increased production cuts due to the real estate market. Under the influence of a new work plan, the industry may reduce inefficient clinker production capacity by about 10% this year, and the cement price is expected to rebound [39]. - The predicted box office for the first day of the 2025 National Day holiday is 343 million yuan, with "The Volunteers: To the War," "Assassin in Red 2," and "Life of a Loser" leading the list [41]. Overseas - Trump will meet with four congressional leaders on Monday due to the risk of a US government shutdown. If the two parties cannot reach an agreement by September 30, some government agencies may shut down [42]. - Goldman Sachs analysts said the risk of the US economy re - accelerating is rising, which will impact the Fed's monetary policy [42]. - Due to the US tariff policy adjustments, the global trade friction index reached 110 in July, with the amount of trade friction measures increasing year - on - year and month - on - month [42]. - Over 3000 food products in Japan will see price increases in October [43]. Commodity - OPEC+ may approve an oil production increase of at least 137,000 barrels per day at the October 5 meeting [44]. Bond - On September 28, the bond market was stable, with small fluctuations in yields. The central bank conducted 181.7 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 181.7 billion yuan [46]. - The National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors reminded underwriting institutions to comply with regulations on debt - financing tool issuance [46]. - As of September 28, Henan Province has issued 270.635 billion yuan of special bonds this year, mainly for infrastructure and other fields [46]. Foreign Exchange - South Korea and the US reached an agreement on the exchange rate issue, and the US recognized that South Korea did not manipulate the exchange rate, clearing the way for South Korea to be removed from the US Treasury's exchange - rate manipulation monitoring list [47]. 4. Upcoming Events Economic Indicators - Japan's July coincident/leading indicators final value will be released at 13:00 [49]. - Spain's September CPI preliminary value will be released at 15:00 [49]. - The UK's August central bank mortgage approvals will be released at 16:30 [49]. - The Eurozone's September industrial/economic sentiment index and consumer confidence index final value will be released at 17:00 [49]. - The US's August pending home sales index will be released at 22:00 [49]. - The US's September Dallas Fed business activity index will be released at 22:30 [49]. Events - 240.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases of the People's Bank of China will mature at 09:20 [51]. - Bank of Japan board member Noguchi Akira will give a speech at 13:30 [51]. - The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on cultural and tourism development achievements at 14:00 [51]. - ECB Governing Council member Madis Müller will speak on the digital euro at 14:30 [51]. - The National Development and Reform Commission will hold a September press conference at 15:00 [51]. - The Ministry of Commerce will hold a press conference on China - Nordic economic and trade cooperation at 15:00 [51]. - ECB Executive Board member Piero Cipollone will speak on the digital euro at 15:10 [51]. - ECB Governing Council member Mario Centeno will give a speech at 16:30 [51]. - ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel and the German Banking Association will exchange views on monetary policy at 17:00 [51]. - ECB Governing Council member Joachim Nagel will give a speech at 17:00 [51]. - ECB Governing Council member Boris Vujčić will give a speech at 19:35 [51]. - Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester will participate in a policy

瑞达期货：燃料油跟随原油偏强震荡 9月26日夜盘，燃料油期货主力合约遭遇一波急速上涨，最高上探至2974.00元。截止发稿，燃料油主力 合约报2972.00元，涨幅1.99%。 燃料油期货主力涨近2%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 机构 核心观点 瑞达期货（002961） 燃料油跟随原油偏强震荡 迈科期货 FU2601参考2700支撑，2950压力 地缘局势紧张与美国原油库存下降共同支撑油价，对原油化工品成本支撑增强。国内方面，独立炼厂产 能利用率因山东、华东等地部分装置复工而有所提升；而主营炼厂则受华南地区台风天气影响，开工率 有所下调。需求端，下游节前备货意愿增强，叠加部分炼厂库存压力较小，共同推动全国均价上涨。船 用燃料油方向采购压力较大，成交量环比出现下降。整体上，燃料油跟随原油偏强震荡，但供需面有转 弱迹象，关注上行空间。技术上，LU主力合约夜盘收涨0.58%。FU主力合约夜盘收涨0.35%，预计短期 随原油波动。 迈科期货：FU2601参考2700支撑，2950压力 地缘扰动频发，市场情绪升温，原油继续反弹，高硫方面，中东旺季发电需求见顶后高硫出口逐渐增 加，OPEC+延续增产，长期高硫 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear short - term upward trend with investment opportunities [1] - Fuel Oil: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively clear short - term upward trend with investment opportunities [1] - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: ★☆☆, meaning a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆, showing a relatively clear short - term trend with investment opportunities [1] - Liquefied Petroleum Gas: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear short - term trend with investment opportunities [1] Core Viewpoints - The international oil price rebounded overnight. Geopolitical risks may increase in the period around National Day, with short - term upward risks remaining, but the medium - term surplus pressure means the bearish trend continues. Crude - related futures hedging short positions should be combined with call options [1] - Multiple factors such as the escalation of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the advancement of the Iranian nuclear issue have driven up oil prices and fuel oil prices. The continuous attacks on Russian refineries have affected fuel supply, and the market's expectation of a reduction in Russian fuel exports may strengthen. Low - sulfur fuel oil is under pressure from weak demand and other factors [2] - In the asphalt market, there is a pre - holiday rush for work in the north, and typhoon weather affects demand in the south. The supply pressure is weaker than expected, and the supply - demand balance continues [2] - For liquefied petroleum gas, refinery self - use has squeezed external supply, and import arrivals are affected by weather. With the coming of the gas consumption peak season, the overall consumption is expected to increase, and the market has bottomed out and rebounded [2] Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices continued to rebound, with the SC11 contract rising 0.49%. Geopolitical risks may increase around National Day, mainly in the Russia - Ukraine and Iranian nuclear issues. Without direct military conflicts, the restoration of Iranian nuclear sanctions and restricted Venezuelan exports have limited long - term impact on actual exports, but short - term fluctuations and changes in export directions may occur. If the situation in Eastern Europe further deteriorates, Russian oil and refined product exports may decrease. Trump urged Turkey to stop buying Russian oil, and Russia extended its gasoline and diesel export bans until the end of the year. Short - term upward risks remain, but the medium - term surplus pressure means the bearish trend has not ended [1] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Multiple international factors have driven up oil prices and fuel oil prices. The continuous attacks on Russian refineries have led to a decline in the operating rate, and Russia extended its diesel and gasoline export bans until the end of the year, intensifying the impact on refined product supply. If export restrictions expand to non - gasoline products, the market's expectation of a reduction in Russian fuel exports will strengthen, directly supporting high - sulfur fuel oil. Low - sulfur fuel oil is still under pressure from weak demand, increased overseas production, and sufficient domestic quotas [2] Asphalt - There is a pre - holiday rush for work in northern regions, and typhoon weather affects demand in southern regions. Refinery and social inventories have slightly increased. The national production plan for October is 350,000 tons more than the same period last year and 4,000 tons less than the previous month, with supply pressure weaker than expected, and the supply - demand balance continues [2] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - Refinery self - use has squeezed external supply, resulting in a decline in commercial volume compared to last week. Typhoon weather in South China affects import arrivals, and the import volume in East China has increased but remains at a low level. Chemical demand is stable, and with the coming of the gas consumption peak season, overall consumption is expected to increase. The market has bottomed out and rebounded [2]