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中金 | AI“探电”(九):SOFC—AIDC供电新解法
中金点睛· 2025-08-29 00:07
Core Viewpoint - Bloom Energy is positioning its solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) systems as a new solution for powering data centers, with significant agreements already in place, including a notable partnership with Oracle for on-site fuel cell deployment [2][6]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The North American data center power supply landscape is shifting from traditional sources like nuclear and gas to newer technologies such as SOFC, driven by shorter delivery times and increasing demand for reliable power [3][4]. - The projected annual installation capacity for SOFC in North America is expected to reach between 0.5 to 1.25 GW from 2026 to 2030, as data center projects totaling around 68 GW are in various stages of development [3][20][21]. Group 2: SOFC Technology and Economics - SOFC technology is characterized by high efficiency, cleanliness, and flexibility in deployment, making it suitable for various applications, including data centers [4][25]. - Current economic challenges for SOFC include the need to improve system lifespan and efficiency to reduce the cost per kilowatt-hour, with long-term goals set by the U.S. Department of Energy to lower costs to $225/kW for stacks and below $900/kW for systems by 2025/2030 [4][37]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Diesel generators remain the dominant choice for backup power in data centers due to their lower capital expenditure (capex) compared to SOFC, which is around $5/W, even after tax credits [14][17]. - The delivery time for SOFC systems is approximately 90 days, significantly shorter than the 2-3 years required for gas turbines, positioning SOFC as a competitive option in the evolving data center power supply market [18][36]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The demand for SOFC is expected to grow as data centers increasingly adopt off-grid power solutions, with a potential 50% of new data centers opting for such models between 2025 and 2030 [20][21]. - As the market for SOFC expands, the technology's adaptability to various fuels, including natural gas and hydrogen, will enhance its appeal, particularly as green energy initiatives gain traction [25][34].