Workflow
牛市震荡期风格变化
icon
Search documents
牛市震荡期前后的风格变化
Xinda Securities· 2025-09-21 09:58
Core Conclusions - The report indicates that after a peak in turnover rate during a bull market, there is often a period of sideways consolidation, with fast bull markets experiencing shorter consolidation periods and slow bull markets experiencing longer ones [2][3][9] - It is noted that after consolidation in a bull market, there is a high probability of a change in market style, particularly between large-cap and small-cap stocks, although the transition between growth and value styles does not follow a clear pattern [2][3][8] Market Style Changes During Bull Markets - In the slow bull market period from July to October 2020, the market style shifted from small-cap growth to large-cap growth after a consolidation phase lasting three and a half months. Strong sectors before the consolidation included food and beverage and electric equipment, while electronics and computers weakened afterward [3][11] - Historical examples from the fast bull market of 2005-2007 show that prior to the consolidation periods in June-August 2006, January-February 2007, and June-July 2007, the market styles were small-cap growth, large-cap value, and small-cap value respectively, transitioning to large-cap growth, small-cap value, and large-cap value after the consolidations [3][14][15][16] Current Market Assessment - The report suggests that the current market is likely in the mid-stage of a bull market, with expectations of continued upward movement in the fourth quarter following a narrow consolidation in September. The market is becoming less sensitive to current earnings, and structural profit-making effects have been observed for nearly a year [17][18] - The report highlights that the recent increase in turnover rates and concentrated trading in certain sectors may lead to adjustments, but it does not foresee significant negative impacts, maintaining a bullish outlook for the market [18][21] Sector Allocation Recommendations - The report recommends reallocating within the financial sector from banks to non-bank financials, as the latter is expected to show increased performance elasticity in the context of a rising bull market [22][23] - It also suggests focusing on sectors such as electric equipment, non-ferrous metals, and chemicals, with an emphasis on the potential for cyclical stocks to perform well in the coming months due to expected policy support for demand stabilization [22][23]