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“三问物业行业”系列报告之三:不谋长远者,无以图当下
Soochow Securities· 2025-05-23 14:31
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the real estate service industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The long-term growth of property companies relies on high-quality third-party expansion, stable gross margins, and community value-added services [60] - The industry is experiencing a shift towards focusing on core property service revenue, with a notable increase in its share of total income [10][13] - The report emphasizes the importance of managing accounts receivable and cash flow to mitigate operational risks [61] Summary by Sections 1. Sources of Long-term Growth for Property Companies - High-quality third-party expansion is essential for sustainable growth, with a significant increase in the share of core property service revenue among sample companies [10][16] - Profitability stabilization is more critical than mere scale growth, with some companies showing signs of gross margin recovery after years of decline [20][25] - Community value-added services, while not a second growth engine, can contribute to stable revenue and profit growth during low-growth phases [57] 2. Operational Risks Facing Property Companies - The accumulation of accounts receivable and the aging of these receivables pose significant risks to cash flow, with many companies experiencing faster growth in receivables than in revenue [61][63] - The report highlights the need for property companies to control the rapid growth of receivables to maintain financial health [61] 3. Valuation Recovery Potential in the Industry - The valuation of property companies is influenced by growth potential, profitability quality, and shareholder return policies, with a focus on maintaining a dividend payout [3][24] - Companies that can achieve stable mid-term growth and manage operational risks effectively are likely to see improved valuations [4][19] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends companies that demonstrate stable growth, effective risk management, and a commitment to high dividends, highlighting specific companies such as China Resources Vientiane Life, Greentown Service, and China Merchants Jinling [4][19]