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京东物流(02618.HK):收入增长提速 关注多张物流网络融合效应
Ge Long Hui· 2025-08-16 19:05
Core Insights - JD Logistics reported a revenue of 98.5 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 14.1% [1] - External customer revenue reached 66.1 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 10.2% [1] - Adjusted net profit for the first half of the year was 3.3 billion yuan, up 7.1% year-on-year, indicating steady growth in performance [1] Revenue Growth Drivers - The integrated supply chain business significantly contributed to revenue growth, with income from other customers, including express delivery, amounting to 48.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.7% [1] - Revenue from the integrated supply chain business was 50.1 billion yuan, reflecting a robust year-on-year growth of 19.9% [1] - Key growth drivers include government subsidies promoting consumption in relevant categories, continuous improvement in warehousing and distribution capabilities, and contributions from new industries and customers, with average revenue per external integrated supply chain customer reaching 239,000 yuan [1] Cost and Employee Insights - Employee costs rose to 35 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, up 17.1% from 29.9 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, driven by business expansion [1] - The company expanded its food delivery business, leading to increased logistics costs, and is currently focusing on the integration of various business lines, including express delivery and brands like Kuaixue and Debang [1] Profit Forecast and Rating Adjustment - The profit forecast remains unchanged, with adjusted net profit expected to be 8.307 billion yuan, 9.166 billion yuan, and 10.513 billion yuan for 2025-2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 4.93%, 10.34%, and 14.70% respectively [1] - The company’s price-to-earnings ratio is projected at 10x, 9x, and 8x for the respective years [1] - Due to uncertainties arising from the integration of multiple business lines, the rating has been adjusted to "Accumulate" [1]
京东物流(02618):收入增长提速,关注多张物流网络融合效应
Investment Rating - The report downgrades the investment rating to "Outperform" [2][6] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 98.5 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 14.1%, with external customer revenue reaching 66.1 billion yuan, up 10.2% [6] - The integrated supply chain business has driven revenue growth, with a 19.9% increase in revenue from this segment, contributing significantly to overall growth [6] - Employee costs have risen alongside business expansion, with the number of employees exceeding 660,000 and employee costs increasing by 17.1% to 35 billion yuan [6] - The report maintains profit forecasts, expecting adjusted net profits of 83.07 billion yuan, 91.66 billion yuan, and 105.13 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 10, 9, and 8 [6][7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue (million yuan): 2023: 166,625; 2024: 182,838; 2025E: 204,215; 2026E: 225,948; 2027E: 247,880 [3] - Adjusted Net Profit (million yuan): 2023: 2,761; 2024: 7,917; 2025E: 8,307; 2026E: 9,166; 2027E: 10,513 [3] - Earnings per Share (yuan/share): 2023: 0.44; 2024: 1.25; 2025E: 1.31; 2026E: 1.45; 2027E: 1.66 [3] - Return on Equity (%): 2023: 5.73%; 2024: 14.31%; 2025E: 13.23%; 2026E: 12.86%; 2027E: 12.96% [3] Market Data - Closing price (HKD): 13.96 [4] - Market capitalization (billion HKD): 928.07 [4] - 52-week high/low (HKD): 16.84/7.68 [4]