Core Insights - JD Logistics reported a revenue of 98.5 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 14.1% [1] - External customer revenue reached 66.1 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 10.2% [1] - Adjusted net profit for the first half of the year was 3.3 billion yuan, up 7.1% year-on-year, indicating steady growth in performance [1] Revenue Growth Drivers - The integrated supply chain business significantly contributed to revenue growth, with income from other customers, including express delivery, amounting to 48.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.7% [1] - Revenue from the integrated supply chain business was 50.1 billion yuan, reflecting a robust year-on-year growth of 19.9% [1] - Key growth drivers include government subsidies promoting consumption in relevant categories, continuous improvement in warehousing and distribution capabilities, and contributions from new industries and customers, with average revenue per external integrated supply chain customer reaching 239,000 yuan [1] Cost and Employee Insights - Employee costs rose to 35 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, up 17.1% from 29.9 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, driven by business expansion [1] - The company expanded its food delivery business, leading to increased logistics costs, and is currently focusing on the integration of various business lines, including express delivery and brands like Kuaixue and Debang [1] Profit Forecast and Rating Adjustment - The profit forecast remains unchanged, with adjusted net profit expected to be 8.307 billion yuan, 9.166 billion yuan, and 10.513 billion yuan for 2025-2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 4.93%, 10.34%, and 14.70% respectively [1] - The company’s price-to-earnings ratio is projected at 10x, 9x, and 8x for the respective years [1] - Due to uncertainties arising from the integration of multiple business lines, the rating has been adjusted to "Accumulate" [1]

上 市 公 司 公 司 研 究 / 公 司 点 评 交通运输 2025 年 08 月 15 日 京东物流 (02618) ——收入增长提速，关注多张物流网络融合效应 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 增持（下调） 投资要点： 财务数据及盈利预测 市场数据： 2025 年 08 月 14 日 收盘价（港币） 13.96 恒生中国企业指数 9128.93 52 周最高/最低（港币） 16.84/7.68 H 股市值（亿港币） 928.07 流通 H 股（百万股） 6,648.08 汇率（人民币/港币） 1.1003 | | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 166,625 | 182,838 | 204,215 | 225,948 | 247,880 | | 同比增长率（%） | 21.27% | 9.73% | 11.69% | 10.64% | 9.71% | | 调整后净利润（百万元） | 2761 | 7917 | 8307 | 9166 | 10513 | | 同 ...

Core Viewpoint - JD Logistics reported 1Q25 results that met expectations, with revenue growth driven by increased investment in product competitiveness and a focus on medium to long-term profit growth [1]. Revenue Performance - Total revenue for 1Q25 increased by 11% YoY to Rmb46.97 billion, with non-IFRS net profit rising 13% YoY to Rmb751 million [1]. - Revenue from the integrated supply chain business grew 13% YoY to Rmb23.2 billion, with JD.com contributing Rmb14.7 billion, a 14% YoY increase [2]. - Revenue from external customers rose 12% YoY to Rmb8.5 billion, with the number of customers increasing by 14% YoY to 63,601 [3]. - Revenue from express delivery and freight delivery industries increased by 10% YoY to Rmb23.8 billion, maintaining a high external revenue proportion of about 70% [4]. Cost and Expense Analysis - Operating costs rose 12% YoY, with specific increases in employee compensation (+14%), outsourcing costs (+18%), and other operating costs (+6%) [5]. - Gross margin decreased by 0.5 percentage points YoY to 7.2%, attributed to increased investments in transportation and delivery resources [5]. - Total expenses rose 1.3% YoY to Rmb3.18 billion, with the expense proportion in revenue decreasing by 0.7 percentage points to 6.8% [5]. Future Trends and Growth Drivers - The company is expected to enter a development phase in 2025, focusing on scale expansion and product upgrades, driven by channel integration with the Taotian platform and improvements in operational efficiency [6]. - Expansion of overseas warehouses is anticipated to unlock new market opportunities for the international business [7]. - Integration with Deppon's network is expected to enhance economies of scale [7]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The non-IFRS net profit forecast for 2025 has been raised by 35% to Rmb8.54 billion, with a new forecast for 2026 at Rmb9.43 billion, reflecting a 10% YoY increase [7]. - The stock is currently trading at 8.5x 2025e and 7.6x 2026e non-IFRS P/E, with a target price of HK$18.5, indicating a potential upside of 57.3% [7].