机构：中金公司 合并达达即时配送带动公司收入继续稳健增长；但京东零售部分品类销售承压或影响4Q相关内单收 入。公司外卖全职骑手业务有序发展、收购达达本地即时配送业务，均带动4Q收入继续稳健增长。我 们预计4Q25 公司营收同比增长20%至625 亿元，增速较3Q25（同比增24%）略有放缓，主要考虑内单 收入或受京东零售部分品类销售承压影响：由于社零数据及线上电商大盘表现较弱，叠加国补退坡影 响，中金互联网组预计4Q25 京东零售收入同比下滑3%至2979 亿元；我们预计4Q剔除外卖配送后的内 单业务收入增长或亦有承压。 海外仓一次性货损计提、子集团战略调整，或致公司4Q盈利短期承压，但我们仍看好公司中长期增 长。我们预计4Q25 公司或产生一次性货损计提，主要与部分海外仓相关，例如，12 月23日京东物流位 于巴黎的一处仓库遭盗窃（新华社）。结合公司子集团2H25 正进行业务战略调整，我们预计4Q25 盈利 或短期承压，下调4Q25 non-IFRS净利润24%至22.3 亿元、较4Q24 同比持平。但中长期看，我们持续看 好公司一体化供应链业务能力领先、海外业务快速增长、外卖配送及子集团业务与公司内生业务 ...

为-3.71%/+15.13%/+13.31%，对应当前PE 倍数分别为9x/8x/7x。公司收入保持较高增速，中长期利润率 存在提升空间，公司市值对标顺丰控股H 仍有上涨空间，维持"增持"评级。 机构：申万宏源研究 研究员：闫海/王易/范晨轩 多业务融合带动公司收入增长，预计25Q4 收入保持较高增速。25 年公司战略重心转移至收入增速及投 入，公司以一体化供应链业务为核心积极投入拓展即时配送业务，并扩张快递及海外供应链业务，我们 认为25Q4 公司收入端有望保持较高增速。 25 年公司管理层变革，同时加大投入不断挖掘高端电商件及高价值业务场景，看好公司26年利润改 善。公司管理层调整已全面到位，且针对高端时效件（如商务急件、生鲜冷链、医药特运）及高价值业 务（如高端电商件、供应链一体化解决方案）的核心需求，公司加大资源倾斜力度，深挖场景化服务潜 力，有效驱动收入规模稳步增长。依托管理端的提质增效与业务端的结构优化，公司在行业竞争中的核 心优势持续凸显，我们看好26 年公司利润改善。 下调盈利预测，维持"增持"评级。公司25 年业务重心在收入增速以及投入，我们认为快递员、车辆、 飞机、销售资源等方面的投入可 ...

上 市 公 司 公 司 研 究 / 公 司 点 评 ——预计 Q4 收入高增，看好 26 年利润改善 2026 年 01 月 08 日 京东物流 (02618) 报告原因：强调原有的投资评级 增持（维持） | 市场数据： | 2026 年 01 月 07 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港币） | 11.55 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 9138.75 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 15.64/10.08 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 768.86 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 6,656.78 | | 汇率（港币/人民币） | 0.9013 | 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： -16% 4% 24% 44% HSCEI 京东物流 资料来源：Bloomberg 相关研究 - 证券分析师 研究支持 王易 A0230525050001 wangyi@swsresearch.com 范晨轩 A0230525070003 fancx@swsresearch.com 联系人 王易 A0230525050001 wangyi@swsresearch.com 、 投资要点： 财务数据及 ...

Core Viewpoint - JD Logistics reported strong revenue growth in Q3 2025, driven by increased retail income, new food delivery services, and expansion in overseas markets, although profitability declined due to higher resource investments in new businesses and rising short-term costs [1][2]. Revenue Performance - Total revenue for Q3 2025 reached 55.08 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.1% [1] - Revenue from JD Group increased by 65.8% year-on-year to 21.2 billion yuan, accounting for 38.5% of total revenue [1] - External customer revenue was 33.88 billion yuan, up 7.2% year-on-year, representing 61.5% of total revenue [1] Business Segmentation - Integrated supply chain business revenue was 30.14 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 45.8%, making up 54.7% of total revenue [1] - External integrated supply chain customer revenue was 8.93 billion yuan, up 13.5% year-on-year, with the number of external customers increasing by 12.7% to 67,000 [1] Profitability Analysis - Gross margin and Non-IFRS profit margin for Q3 2025 were 9.1% and 3.7%, respectively, down 2.6 percentage points and 2.1 percentage points year-on-year [2] - Employee compensation and benefits increased by 49.8% year-on-year to 21.8 billion yuan due to the addition of full-time delivery personnel [2] Strategic Initiatives - The company is accelerating its global strategy, focusing on the Middle East and Asia-Pacific markets [2] - JD Logistics has expanded its cooperation with a well-known electric vehicle brand to provide comprehensive logistics services in the Middle East [2] - A new air freight route from Shenzhen to Singapore was launched to enhance the logistics network in the Asia-Pacific region [2] Financial Forecast - The company maintains its net profit forecast for 2025 at 6.9 billion yuan and Non-IFRS profit at 8.34 billion yuan [3] - Slight downward adjustments were made for 2026 and 2027 net profit estimates due to anticipated cost increases [3] - The target price is maintained at 16.7 HKD, based on a PE ratio of 14.8x for 2025E, which is below the average of comparable companies [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of HKD 16.70 [1][5]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of RMB 55.08 billion for Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 24.1%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 7.9% to RMB 2.03 billion [1][5]. - The revenue growth was primarily driven by the increase in JD Retail revenue, the addition of JD Delivery services, accelerated overseas market expansion, and growth in external customer business [1][3]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its logistics infrastructure and expanding into international markets, particularly in the Middle East and Asia-Pacific regions [4]. Revenue Breakdown - In Q3 2025, revenue from JD Group reached RMB 21.20 billion, a significant increase of 65.8%, accounting for 38.5% of total revenue, up 9.7 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - External customer revenue was RMB 33.88 billion, growing by 7.2% and representing 61.5% of total revenue [2]. - The integrated supply chain business generated RMB 30.14 billion, a year-on-year increase of 45.8%, reinforcing its core position in the business [2]. Profitability Analysis - The gross margin and Non-IFRS profit margin for Q3 2025 were 9.1% and 3.7%, respectively, both showing a decline of 2.6 and 2.1 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The decline in profitability is attributed to increased resource investment in new businesses and higher employee compensation costs, which rose by 49.8% to RMB 21.8 billion [3]. Future Outlook - The company maintains its net profit forecast for 2025 at RMB 6.90 billion and Non-IFRS profit at RMB 8.34 billion, while slightly adjusting the forecasts for 2026 and 2027 downwards due to anticipated cost increases [5]. - The long-term outlook remains positive, with expectations of profit margin recovery driven by improved logistics capacity utilization and automation technology applications [3][5].

Core Insights - JD Logistics reported a revenue of 98.5 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 14.1% [1] - External customer revenue reached 66.1 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 10.2% [1] - Adjusted net profit for the first half of the year was 3.3 billion yuan, up 7.1% year-on-year, indicating steady growth in performance [1] Revenue Growth Drivers - The integrated supply chain business significantly contributed to revenue growth, with income from other customers, including express delivery, amounting to 48.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.7% [1] - Revenue from the integrated supply chain business was 50.1 billion yuan, reflecting a robust year-on-year growth of 19.9% [1] - Key growth drivers include government subsidies promoting consumption in relevant categories, continuous improvement in warehousing and distribution capabilities, and contributions from new industries and customers, with average revenue per external integrated supply chain customer reaching 239,000 yuan [1] Cost and Employee Insights - Employee costs rose to 35 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, up 17.1% from 29.9 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, driven by business expansion [1] - The company expanded its food delivery business, leading to increased logistics costs, and is currently focusing on the integration of various business lines, including express delivery and brands like Kuaixue and Debang [1] Profit Forecast and Rating Adjustment - The profit forecast remains unchanged, with adjusted net profit expected to be 8.307 billion yuan, 9.166 billion yuan, and 10.513 billion yuan for 2025-2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 4.93%, 10.34%, and 14.70% respectively [1] - The company’s price-to-earnings ratio is projected at 10x, 9x, and 8x for the respective years [1] - Due to uncertainties arising from the integration of multiple business lines, the rating has been adjusted to "Accumulate" [1]

Investment Rating - The report downgrades the investment rating to "Outperform" [2][6] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 98.5 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 14.1%, with external customer revenue reaching 66.1 billion yuan, up 10.2% [6] - The integrated supply chain business has driven revenue growth, with a 19.9% increase in revenue from this segment, contributing significantly to overall growth [6] - Employee costs have risen alongside business expansion, with the number of employees exceeding 660,000 and employee costs increasing by 17.1% to 35 billion yuan [6] - The report maintains profit forecasts, expecting adjusted net profits of 83.07 billion yuan, 91.66 billion yuan, and 105.13 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 10, 9, and 8 [6][7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue (million yuan): 2023: 166,625; 2024: 182,838; 2025E: 204,215; 2026E: 225,948; 2027E: 247,880 [3] - Adjusted Net Profit (million yuan): 2023: 2,761; 2024: 7,917; 2025E: 8,307; 2026E: 9,166; 2027E: 10,513 [3] - Earnings per Share (yuan/share): 2023: 0.44; 2024: 1.25; 2025E: 1.31; 2026E: 1.45; 2027E: 1.66 [3] - Return on Equity (%): 2023: 5.73%; 2024: 14.31%; 2025E: 13.23%; 2026E: 12.86%; 2027E: 12.96% [3] Market Data - Closing price (HKD): 13.96 [4] - Market capitalization (billion HKD): 928.07 [4] - 52-week high/low (HKD): 16.84/7.68 [4]

Core Viewpoint - JD Logistics reported 1Q25 results that met expectations, with revenue growth driven by increased investment in product competitiveness and a focus on medium to long-term profit growth [1]. Revenue Performance - Total revenue for 1Q25 increased by 11% YoY to Rmb46.97 billion, with non-IFRS net profit rising 13% YoY to Rmb751 million [1]. - Revenue from the integrated supply chain business grew 13% YoY to Rmb23.2 billion, with JD.com contributing Rmb14.7 billion, a 14% YoY increase [2]. - Revenue from external customers rose 12% YoY to Rmb8.5 billion, with the number of customers increasing by 14% YoY to 63,601 [3]. - Revenue from express delivery and freight delivery industries increased by 10% YoY to Rmb23.8 billion, maintaining a high external revenue proportion of about 70% [4]. Cost and Expense Analysis - Operating costs rose 12% YoY, with specific increases in employee compensation (+14%), outsourcing costs (+18%), and other operating costs (+6%) [5]. - Gross margin decreased by 0.5 percentage points YoY to 7.2%, attributed to increased investments in transportation and delivery resources [5]. - Total expenses rose 1.3% YoY to Rmb3.18 billion, with the expense proportion in revenue decreasing by 0.7 percentage points to 6.8% [5]. Future Trends and Growth Drivers - The company is expected to enter a development phase in 2025, focusing on scale expansion and product upgrades, driven by channel integration with the Taotian platform and improvements in operational efficiency [6]. - Expansion of overseas warehouses is anticipated to unlock new market opportunities for the international business [7]. - Integration with Deppon's network is expected to enhance economies of scale [7]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The non-IFRS net profit forecast for 2025 has been raised by 35% to Rmb8.54 billion, with a new forecast for 2026 at Rmb9.43 billion, reflecting a 10% YoY increase [7]. - The stock is currently trading at 8.5x 2025e and 7.6x 2026e non-IFRS P/E, with a target price of HK$18.5, indicating a potential upside of 57.3% [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [8] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 46.97 billion RMB in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.5%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 450 million RMB, up 89.1% year-on-year, slightly exceeding expectations [1] - The integrated supply chain business revenue grew by 13.2% year-on-year, accounting for 49.4% of total revenue, driven by increased income from JD Group and a rise in external customer numbers [3] - The company is expected to benefit from enhanced logistics capabilities and competitive products, as well as accelerated overseas expansion, which will continue to drive overall revenue and profit growth [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a Non-IFRS net profit of 750 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 13.4%, with a gross margin of 7.2% [1][4] - The revenue from JD Group was 14.1% higher year-on-year, contributing 31.3% to total revenue, while external customer revenue grew by 10.3%, making up 68.7% of total revenue [2] Business Segments - The integrated supply chain business generated 23.2 billion RMB in revenue, up 13.2% year-on-year, while other businesses (express and freight) saw revenue of 23.77 billion RMB, growing by 9.8% [3] - The number of external integrated supply chain customers reached 63,061, reflecting a 13.1% increase year-on-year [2] Cost and Profitability - The company increased investments in logistics infrastructure and personnel, leading to a higher cost growth rate than revenue growth, resulting in a slight decline in gross margin [4] - The report anticipates that as business volume increases, economies of scale will improve margins in subsequent quarters [4] Future Outlook - The net profit forecast for 2025 has been slightly reduced by 3% to 6.9 billion RMB, with the target price adjusted down by 6% to 16.7 HKD [5] - The company is projected to achieve a revenue of 205.13 billion RMB in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 12.19% [29]