Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of recent political events in the U.S. and their potential impact on the economy and financial markets, particularly focusing on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions and investor sentiment towards U.S. assets [9][11]. Group 1: Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Policy - The article highlights two scenarios for the Federal Reserve's future policy: one where trade negotiations fail, leading to a potential rate cut starting in July, and another where negotiations succeed, resulting in a delay of rate cuts due to persistent inflation pressures [11]. - Current market expectations indicate a 90.3% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in May, with a 9.7% chance of a 25 basis point cut [11]. - Predictions for the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings suggest a significant likelihood of maintaining the current rate of 4.25%-4.50% in May, with a 58.6% chance of a 25 basis point cut by June [12]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Investor Sentiment - Following Trump's criticism of Powell, the dollar index fell to its lowest level since March 2022, but later rebounded as Trump expressed optimism about negotiations [9]. - Trump's approval rating after his first 100 days in office dropped to 39%, marking the lowest for any U.S. president in the past 80 years [9]. - The article notes that the chaotic nature of Trump's administration has led to significant shifts in investor confidence and market dynamics, particularly regarding U.S. assets [9].