Group 1 - The U.S. labor market is expected to show signs of slowing down in June, with an anticipated unemployment rate increase to 4.3%, the highest in three and a half years [1] - Non-farm payrolls are projected to increase by 110,000 in June, down from 139,000 in May and below the three-month average of 135,000 [1][2] - The average hourly wage growth is expected to remain steady at 0.3%, with an annualized increase of 3.9% [1] Group 2 - The proportion of consumers who believe "job opportunities are plentiful" fell to the lowest level in over four years in June [4] - Economists predict that the unemployment rate will continue to rise in the second half of the year, potentially prompting the Federal Reserve to restart its easing cycle in September [4] - The Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50% in June, with a 74.7% probability of keeping rates unchanged in July and a 71.5% chance of a 25 basis point cut in September [4][5] Group 3 - A rising trend in layoffs is contributing to a decrease in re-employment opportunities, which explains the expected rise in the unemployment rate [3] - The labor market is facing challenges due to hiring fatigue, while layoffs remain low as employers continue to struggle with recruitment post-pandemic [2] Group 4 - The healthcare sector is likely to remain a key employment driver, while the leisure and hospitality industry may see reduced job applications due to fears of deportation among immigrants [6] - The manufacturing sector continues to be constrained by tariffs, and the trend of mild reductions in federal government jobs persists [6]

Core Viewpoint - European Central Bank officials are preparing for further interest rate cuts due to anticipated long-term economic damage from U.S. tariffs, despite potential softening of stance by the Trump administration [1] Group 1: Economic Impact - Most policymakers left the IMF meetings in Washington feeling disappointed, expecting that Trump's unpredictable behavior will continue to increase uncertainty, suppress spending and investment, and ultimately raise inflation in the near future [1] - Economists from Bank of America, Deutsche Bank, and Morgan Stanley predict that to stimulate demand, deposit rates, currently at 2.25%, will be lowered to at least 1.5% this year [1]