美联储副主席杰斐逊：净移民人数下降是阻止失业率出现更显著上升的一个主要因素。 来源：滚动播报 ...

美联储官员巴尔金表示，失业率预计将小幅上升。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

美联储卡什卡利：失业率急剧上升的风险要求美联储采取一些行动。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Group 1 - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. decreased to 231,000 for the week ending September 13, down from a previous value of 263,000 and below market expectations of 240,000 [1] - Continuing claims also fell to 1.92 million, down from 1.939 million and below the expected 1.95 million [1] - The increase in initial claims was primarily concentrated in Texas, where there has been a rise in fraudulent applications aimed at exploiting the unemployment insurance system [1] Group 2 - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of softening, with hiring nearly stagnating and labor demand slowing due to uncertainties from tariffs [1] - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25%, marking its first rate cut since December 2024 [1] - The Fed's dot plot indicates an additional 50 basis points cut in 2025 [1] Group 3 - The unemployment rate in the U.S. rose to 4.3% in August, the highest level in nearly four years, with non-farm payroll growth slowing for several months [2] - The Fed acknowledged that inflation has risen and remains at elevated levels, while the risks to the job market have increased significantly [2]

Economic Outlook - Germany's economy is predicted to grow only 0.2% in 2025, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from previous forecasts, and 1.3% in 2026, down by 0.2 percentage points [3] - Unemployment is expected to rise by 155,000, leading to an unemployment rate of 6.3%, with a return to below 6% not anticipated until 2027 [3] Trade and Tariff Impact - Despite a tariff agreement between the EU and the US, tariffs imposed by former President Trump remain largely unchanged, with most goods facing a 15% tariff, putting pressure on German exports to the US, which is still Germany's most important export market [4] Government Stimulus Measures - The effectiveness of Germany's government stimulus plan is expected to be lower than anticipated, with an economic boost of €38 billion projected for 2025, nearly €20 billion less than previous estimates, and only €9 billion for the current year [5] - Future growth may be supported by defense and infrastructure investments [5] Inflation and Policy Challenges - Inflation in Germany is forecasted to rise to 2.6% in 2026, up from 2.2% in 2024, indicating ongoing economic challenges [6] - The ability of Germany to overcome prolonged economic weakness is heavily dependent on government economic policies, with concerns about potential long-term economic stagnation and industrial decline if policy inertia continues [6]

Core Viewpoint - The unemployment rate in Hong Kong has risen to 3.7% from 3.5% in the previous quarter, marking the highest level since late 2022, with significant implications for the local economy and employment landscape [1][2][3]. Employment Data - The total number of employed individuals in Hong Kong is 3.671 million, while the total labor force stands at 3.816 million, resulting in an unemployment count of 145,000 [1]. - The unemployment rate has increased by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous quarter and by 0.6 percentage points compared to the same period in 2024 [2]. Sector-Specific Unemployment - The construction and catering industries are particularly affected, with unemployment rates exceeding 5%, specifically reaching 7.2% in construction and 6.4% in catering [4]. - The retail sector has also seen a rise in unemployment, increasing by 0.3 percentage points to 5% [4]. Economic Outlook - The construction industry's ongoing decline is attributed to developers' lack of confidence in acquiring land and starting new projects, leading to a sustained increase in unemployment [6]. - Predictions suggest that if businesses maintain a cautious hiring approach, the unemployment rate could approach 4% in the coming months, although improvements may occur if the real estate and retail sectors recover [7]. Structural Issues - There are concerns regarding structural reasons behind the rising unemployment rate, prompting discussions on potential measures to alleviate the situation [8]. - The government has noted that the increase in unemployment is partly due to new graduates entering the job market, which typically occurs during the summer [9]. Labor Market Dynamics - There is a debate regarding the impact of foreign labor on local employment, with some local workers expressing concerns about job availability and wage pressure due to the influx of foreign workers [12]. - Employers argue that a lack of sufficient local manpower in sectors like retail and catering necessitates the hiring of foreign labor to improve service quality and reduce business closures [13]. Policy Considerations - The government is reviewing the "Supplementary Labor Optimisation Scheme," which currently restricts the importation of foreign labor for certain job categories, with a decision expected by mid-2026 [16]. - Proposed measures include enhancing transparency in labor market data and adjusting application quotas to better align with market needs [17].

Core Viewpoint - The rise in Ireland's unemployment rate to 4.9% in July is attributed to statistical factors rather than a deterioration in the labor market, according to Davy's chief economist Kevin Timoney [1] Group 1: Unemployment Rate - The unemployment rate in Ireland increased to 4.9% in July, up from 4.6% in April, marking the highest level in over three years [1] - The increase in unemployment is occurring against the backdrop of potential economic slowdown due to U.S. tariffs [1] Group 2: Economic Analysis - Davy's analysis suggests that the upward revision in unemployment figures primarily reflects statistical characteristics in the estimation process rather than actual labor market conditions worsening [1] - It is anticipated that these trends will further ease in the second half of the year [1] - The rise in unemployment may also be linked to increased economic policy uncertainty in Ireland and globally due to tariffs, but statistical factors are deemed more likely to explain the increase [1] - The demand for labor in the Irish economy remains strong despite the rise in unemployment [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, Hauser, indicated that the central bank would need to respond if there is a sharp increase in the unemployment rate [1] Group 1 - The Reserve Bank of Australia is currently discussing how to arrange the public activities of its committee [1] - It is important for the Reserve Bank not to express personal opinions during these discussions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Australian unemployment rate has risen to 4.3% in June, marking a continuation of weak data over two months, which puts pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) regarding its decision not to cut interest rates this month [1] Economic Indicators - The unemployment rate increase to 4.3% indicates a cooling job market, which may lead the RBA to prepare for potential criticism as the unemployment rate is expected to rise further in the coming months [1] - Despite recent interest rate hikes aimed at curbing inflation, Australia has managed to maintain a low unemployment rate, which the RBA aims to protect [1]

Core Viewpoint - The unemployment rate in Switzerland saw a slight increase in June, following a revision of May's rate from 2.9% to 2.8%, indicating a softening labor market consistent with trends in other major economies over the past year [1] Group 1 - The unemployment rate in June rose slightly, reflecting ongoing labor market challenges [1] - The revision of May's unemployment rate from 2.9% to 2.8% suggests a more favorable previous condition than initially reported [1] - The labor market's softening aligns with similar trends observed in other major economies during the past year [1]