2025年，我们团队非常扎实，交割了大约50个新老项目。 因此， 2026年我们的投资节奏不会放缓，反而会更加积极，更加迅猛。 第一，看好商业航天，也看重"独角虎" 2026年，我非常看好商业航天带来的飞跃。 这个行业已经从单纯的技术验证，走向了工程应用和规模化发展的阶段。 我的投资逻辑一直很清晰：投人，投"独角虎"。 我们预计在 并购重组、基金管理规模 等关键指标上，都将迈上一个全新的台阶。 2026年， 对梅花创投而言，将是一个标志性的"收获之年"。 像我们投资的 星河动力 ，已经走通了商业闭环，开始自负盈亏，这说明行业开始自己"造 血"了。 不要等到一切都完美了再出发，先拿到结果，建立信心，再在实践中迭代。 我不追虚无缥缈的"独角兽"，我更看重能打硬仗、能穿越周期的"独角虎"。 什么是"独角虎"？ 就是那些 具备"向上的执念"、积极主动、有探索精神的创业者。 他们不是靠资本不断喂食来长大的，而是能独立生存、能"占山为王"的。 比如，星河动力的刘百奇团队，当初拿着一张图纸来找我，一没公司、二没产品、三没收入， 典型的"三无"团队。 但为什么我敢投？ 因为我看到了他们眼里那股"懂火箭，更敢拼"的劲儿。 他们 ...

我一直是连续创业者，从加入百度以后，包括在酷讯，都是我创业的，从酷讯里面创立一家公 司叫大掌门，获得 1500倍回报 就开始做投资。 酷讯另外一家公司，张一鸣的字节跳动，我在B轮才参与投了一点，所以没投到天使轮，是我 的人生遗憾。 因为 张一鸣是我单招的第一个员工。 我的一个愿景，相信国运，因为在这个时代，早期投资回报周期特别漫长，如果你没有一点信 仰的话，很难坚持这么长期的事情，基本上现在播种要到十年后才有收获。 我有两个身份： 天使投资人，还有投资心学导师。 我们是中国最全面布局的早期投资机构 ，无论从移动互联网时代，到现在AI时代，我们都在每 个赛道都能够提前布局，包括投了 理想、星河动力 这样的企业，这是在硬科技的布局。 现在的星河动力， 微纳星空 都在筹备上市了，已经上市的企业有十几家。现在大环境有些艰 难，首先是募资难，创业也很艰难，现在流量也很贵，很多红利不在了。 退出周期特别漫长，以前有美股上市通道的时候，像当时理想汽车四年时间就上市了， 小牛电 动 三年半上市， 趣店 也是三年上市的，但现在基本上最好的一个企业在A股上市的话，从天 吴世春 梅花创投合伙人、黑马加速导师 使轮到IPO都需要12 ...

Core Viewpoint - Early-stage investment in China remains a viable business despite challenges such as difficult fundraising and long exit cycles, which can take approximately 12 years from angel round to IPO. The key to success lies in having faith in the country's future and extreme patience [2][6]. Investment Environment - The current investment environment is characterized by a scarcity of fundraising opportunities, with state-owned capital dominating about 70-80% of the funding landscape. This makes it challenging for venture capital firms to secure sufficient resources [6][8]. - The exit cycle has significantly lengthened, with the best companies now taking around 12 years to go public in A-shares, compared to much shorter timelines in the past [6][7]. Investment Logic - The speaker advocates for a shift from investing in "unicorns" to "independent tigers," which are companies that can generate their own revenue and have a sustainable business model. This approach emphasizes the importance of identifying companies that can dominate their market [7][9]. - A focus on investing in resilient "small-town youth" entrepreneurs is recommended, as they are less likely to chase trends and more likely to commit to long-term projects [8][9]. Key Advice - Eight pieces of advice for investors include: 1. Invest in future scarcity rather than current trends 2. Make independent judgments in non-consensus areas 3. Only invest if there is absolute confidence in the project 4. Be wary of market fads and technology bubbles 5. Recognize that investment is often counterintuitive 6. Be prepared to correct mistakes and cut losses 7. Diversify exit strategies and focus on brand building 8. Understand that early-stage investment requires a long-term commitment [2][10][11]. Investment Criteria - The four essential elements for investment decisions are: people, projects, timing, and valuation. Each of these factors must align for a successful investment [8][9]. - The concept of "independent tigers" was introduced to differentiate between companies that are genuinely viable and those that are merely inflated in valuation without sustainable business models [9]. Future Outlook - Despite the current challenges, there is optimism about capturing the benefits of technological revolutions and achieving high returns through long-term investments in sectors like AI and hard technology [6][11].