第一个，叫投资独角虎。 因为市面上都是投资独角兽的逻辑，我觉得"兽"里面分老虎和猪。 猪的话，个头和老虎差不多，但是它没有资本喂食的话就无法造血。 去年我说大模型"六小虎"很难成长起来，我觉得那基本上是巨头们的"菜"，大模型现在战场已 经基本结束了。 我们去投一家企业，会考察你能不能占据一个山头，能不能形成巨大的老虎。 看过上万个项目后，我总结出 三个投资逻辑： 不能够占山为王的老虎是没有意义的，投到第三名以后都是打水漂。 第二个，是投资小镇青年逻辑。 中国是把美国的模式复制到中国，搜狐、新浪、网易也是这样。 但是现在不一样了， 现在没有信息差了，现在是认知差，更需要长期主义的年轻人，只有小镇 青年，没有退路的话，才不会追逐热点，才会扎扎实实专注下去。 吴世春 梅花创投合伙人、黑马加速导师 我们现在基本上不投海归，因为现在很多海归都成为海带了。 现在新的独角兽企业，基本上都是小镇青年 ，像张一鸣、王兴。 第三个，是人、事、时、值合一。 一是创业者要好；二是赛道要对，要有红利，符合趋势；三是时间点要对，要在拐点上面；四 是它的估值和倍数一定要合理。 很多时候错过一个时间点，基本上这个领域转型投资机会就没有了。 ...

我一直是连续创业者，从加入百度以后，包括在酷讯，都是我创业的，从酷讯里面创立一家公 司叫大掌门，获得 1500倍回报 就开始做投资。 酷讯另外一家公司，张一鸣的字节跳动，我在B轮才参与投了一点，所以没投到天使轮，是我 的人生遗憾。 因为 张一鸣是我单招的第一个员工。 我的一个愿景，相信国运，因为在这个时代，早期投资回报周期特别漫长，如果你没有一点信 仰的话，很难坚持这么长期的事情，基本上现在播种要到十年后才有收获。 我有两个身份： 天使投资人，还有投资心学导师。 我们是中国最全面布局的早期投资机构 ，无论从移动互联网时代，到现在AI时代，我们都在每 个赛道都能够提前布局，包括投了 理想、星河动力 这样的企业，这是在硬科技的布局。 现在的星河动力， 微纳星空 都在筹备上市了，已经上市的企业有十几家。现在大环境有些艰 难，首先是募资难，创业也很艰难，现在流量也很贵，很多红利不在了。 退出周期特别漫长，以前有美股上市通道的时候，像当时理想汽车四年时间就上市了， 小牛电 动 三年半上市， 趣店 也是三年上市的，但现在基本上最好的一个企业在A股上市的话，从天 吴世春 梅花创投合伙人、黑马加速导师 使轮到IPO都需要12 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the challenges and opportunities in early-stage investment in China, emphasizing the need for patience and a long-term vision in the current investment landscape [2][5][6]. Investment Landscape - The current investment environment is characterized by difficulties in fundraising and high costs of customer acquisition, leading to longer exit cycles for investments [3][4]. - Historically, companies like Li Auto and Niu Technologies had shorter IPO timelines, but now the best companies may take up to 12 years to go public [4]. Investment Logic - The author outlines three key investment strategies: 1. **Investing in "Unicorn Tigers"**: Focus on companies that can dominate their market rather than those that merely exist alongside competitors [7][9]. 2. **Investing in "Town Youth"**: Emphasizes the importance of young entrepreneurs from smaller towns who are more likely to adopt a long-term focus and avoid chasing trends [10][11][13]. 3. **Alignment of People, Events, Timing, and Valuation**: Successful investments require the right team, the right business model, favorable market conditions, and reasonable valuations [14]. Current Investment Activity - The company has invested in over 600 enterprises, with around 70 to 80 achieving profitability close to A-share listing standards, indicating a high success rate in their investment strategy [14]. Upcoming Events - A learning event is scheduled in Xi'an, focusing on technology manufacturing and exploring opportunities in various sectors, including robotics, aerospace, and new materials [15][21].

Core Viewpoint - Early-stage investment in China remains a viable business despite challenges such as difficult fundraising and long exit cycles, which can take approximately 12 years from angel round to IPO. The key to success lies in having faith in the country's future and extreme patience [2][6]. Investment Environment - The current investment environment is characterized by a scarcity of fundraising opportunities, with state-owned capital dominating about 70-80% of the funding landscape. This makes it challenging for venture capital firms to secure sufficient resources [6][8]. - The exit cycle has significantly lengthened, with the best companies now taking around 12 years to go public in A-shares, compared to much shorter timelines in the past [6][7]. Investment Logic - The speaker advocates for a shift from investing in "unicorns" to "independent tigers," which are companies that can generate their own revenue and have a sustainable business model. This approach emphasizes the importance of identifying companies that can dominate their market [7][9]. - A focus on investing in resilient "small-town youth" entrepreneurs is recommended, as they are less likely to chase trends and more likely to commit to long-term projects [8][9]. Key Advice - Eight pieces of advice for investors include: 1. Invest in future scarcity rather than current trends 2. Make independent judgments in non-consensus areas 3. Only invest if there is absolute confidence in the project 4. Be wary of market fads and technology bubbles 5. Recognize that investment is often counterintuitive 6. Be prepared to correct mistakes and cut losses 7. Diversify exit strategies and focus on brand building 8. Understand that early-stage investment requires a long-term commitment [2][10][11]. Investment Criteria - The four essential elements for investment decisions are: people, projects, timing, and valuation. Each of these factors must align for a successful investment [8][9]. - The concept of "independent tigers" was introduced to differentiate between companies that are genuinely viable and those that are merely inflated in valuation without sustainable business models [9]. Future Outlook - Despite the current challenges, there is optimism about capturing the benefits of technological revolutions and achieving high returns through long-term investments in sectors like AI and hard technology [6][11].