猪价与成本剪刀差
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上市猪企2025年4月销售简报数据点评:商品猪出栏量环比下降,出栏体重环比略增-20250519
Caixin Securities· 2025-05-19 11:16
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Synchronize with the Market" [2] Core Viewpoints - In April 2025, the overall pig output of listed pig companies decreased month-on-month but increased year-on-year, with a total output of 16.69 million heads, representing a year-on-year increase of 37.25% and a month-on-month decrease of 5.27% [6] - The average selling price of commodity pigs in April was 14.95 yuan/kg, showing a slight month-on-month increase of 1.05% [6] - The report suggests that the supply of commodity pigs will be marginally relaxed in 2025, with expected average selling prices lower than last year, but quality pig companies are likely to maintain good profitability due to low costs and efficiency advantages [6] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector experienced a decline of 2.02% in the last month, but a growth of 5.13% over three months, and a decline of 6.81% over twelve months [4] Key Stock Analysis - For the key stock "Muyuan Foods," the estimated EPS for 2024 is 3.27 yuan with a PE ratio of 11.99, while for 2025 it is projected to be 2.64 yuan with a PE ratio of 14.87, and for 2026, it is expected to be 3.93 yuan with a PE ratio of 9.98, with a rating of "Increase Holding" [6] Sales Data - In April, the commodity pig output from listed companies was 13.73 million heads, a month-on-month decrease of 2.88%, while the cumulative output from January to April was 52.35 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 18.91% [6] - The sales volume of piglets in April was 2.31 million heads, a month-on-month decrease of 18.68%, but the cumulative sales from January to April showed a significant year-on-year increase of 241.77% for Muyuan Foods [6]