（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 天康生物（002100.SZ）2月9日在投资者互动平台表示，生猪养殖成本受饲料、种苗、防疫、人工、能 耗、环保、管理与市场政策等多因素叠加影响，总体来看，2025年公司生猪养殖成本整体呈下降趋势， 截至2025年12月，公司生猪养殖完全成本为12.37元/公斤。各季度生猪养殖完全成本存在阶段性波动， 核心受饲料原料价格波动、仔猪成本变化及育肥成活率阶段性差异等因素影响。 每经AI快讯，有投资者在投资者互动平台提问：请问公司2025年度生猪养殖完全成本（含区域费用、 养殖事业部各项相关费用的综合核算口径）具体为多少元/公斤？其中自繁自养业务的完全成本、饲料 放养业务的综合成本分别是多少？另外，2025年各季度生猪养殖完全成本是否存在阶段性波动，核心波 动原因是什么？ ...

Summary of the Conference Call on November Pig Production Data Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the pig farming industry in China, specifically discussing the production capacity and market trends as of November 2025 [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments Pig Production Capacity - The national breeding sow inventory decreased by 0.62% month-on-month in November 2025, but increased by 0.82% year-on-year. Compared to the peak in June, there was a reduction of 380,000 sows, primarily due to policy guidance, market expectations, and disease impacts [1][2]. - The average weight of pigs at slaughter in November was 124.66 kg, showing a slight increase of 0.09% month-on-month but a decrease of 0.83% year-on-year [1][6]. Market Prices and Profitability - The average price of pigs continued to decline, reaching 11.13 CNY/kg by December 5, 2025. This price level resulted in over 95% of enterprises operating at a loss, with losses of approximately 100 CNY per head for self-breeding and around 300 CNY per head for piglet fattening [1][5]. - The price is expected to remain below 12 CNY/kg before the Spring Festival due to sufficient supply and increased slaughtering pace in December [1][10]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of pigs in November was ample, with a decrease in large enterprise slaughtering but also a significant reduction in secondary fattening targets, which dropped by 71% [1][7][8]. - The demand in southern regions was weak due to higher temperatures and lower stocking intentions, contributing to the price decline [1][8]. Future Price Predictions - It is anticipated that pig prices will not exceed 12 CNY/kg before the Spring Festival, with a potential slight increase in mid-December due to increased stocking by downstream buyers and reduced slaughtering by farming groups [1][10]. Disease Impact - Recent outbreaks of pig diseases in regions like Shandong and Jiangsu have affected both small-scale and large farming groups, leading to a decrease in breeding sow inventory [1][4][11]. - The disease situation has worsened compared to the previous year, with a significant increase in incidence rates, particularly in the northern regions [1][21]. Financial Health of the Industry - The overall cash flow situation in the pig farming industry is poor, with losses per pig reaching 300 to 400 CNY since August 2025. Approximately 60% to 70% of farming companies are experiencing cash flow difficulties [1][18][19]. Cost Trends and Future Outlook - The cost of pig farming is expected to continue decreasing, primarily due to lower feed prices and the adoption of superior breeding stock, which enhances reproductive performance and reduces feed conversion ratios [1][23][24]. - The industry is likely to see a recovery in profitability by the second half of 2026 as production capacity decreases and demand increases during peak consumption seasons [1][15]. Additional Important Insights - The differences in data reporting between the Ministry of Agriculture and third-party organizations highlight the complexities in understanding market dynamics and the impact of policy measures on production capacity [1][12]. - The willingness of small and medium-sized farms to reduce production capacity is low, as they anticipate potential profits during peak demand periods [1][13]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the current state and future outlook of the pig farming industry in China.

Group 1: Report Overview - Report title: Pig Daily Report [1] - Report date: November 12, 2025 [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The spot market is expected to fluctuate as supply stabilizes and demand increases slightly, but the support from second - round fattening is weak. The futures market, specifically the 2601 contract, may show a long - term weakening trend due to increased supply and concentrated second - round fattening and pressure - barring in October [9]. Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market conditions**: On November 11, the main 2601 futures contract of live pigs opened slightly lower, fluctuated downward, and closed with a negative line. The highest was 11,995 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,750 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11,755 yuan/ton, down 1.80% from the previous day. The total index positions increased by 16,981 lots to 368,545 lots. The national average price of external ternary pigs was 11.87 yuan/kg, down 0.06 yuan/kg from the previous day [8]. - **Analysis**: In the long - term, pig slaughter is expected to increase slightly until the first half of next year. The concentrated second - round fattening and pressure - barring in October increased the supply pressure before the Spring Festival. In the short - term, the planned sales volume in November decreased by 3.27% compared to the actual sales volume in October. The demand side shows that second - round fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see state. Terminal consumption is rising but with insufficient incremental growth. The slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises on November 11 was 162,400 heads, an increase of 100 heads from the previous day, 4,400 heads week - on - week, and 6,600 heads month - on - month [9]. 2. Industry News - There is no specific content about industry news in the report, only the titles of some related data charts are given. 3. Data Overview - As of October 30, the average profit per self - bred and self - raised pig was - 34.5 yuan/head, a monthly increase of 20 yuan/head; the profit per pig from purchasing piglets was - 258 yuan/head, a monthly increase of 50 yuan/head [13]. - As of October 31, the utilization rate of fattening pens was 55.5%, a monthly increase of 21.2 percentage points, the same as the previous year [13]. - As of the end of October, the price difference between 175 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs was 0.71 yuan/jin, a monthly increase of 0.36 yuan/jin [13]. - As of the end of October, the cost of fattening a 110 - kg pig to 140 kg was 12.18 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.58 yuan/kg from the previous month; the cost of fattening a 125 - kg pig to 150 kg was 12.63 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.44 yuan/kg from the previous month [13]. - The average slaughter weight of pigs in October was 128.1 kg, a decrease of 0.3 kg from September, a monthly decrease of 0.23%, and an increase of 2.2 kg compared to the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 1.75% [13]. - In September, the slaughter volume of large - scale pig slaughtering enterprises nationwide was 35.84 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 7% and a year - on - year increase of 28.5% [13].

Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company sold 1,079,900 pigs, an increase of 85.61% compared to the same period last year [5] - The operating revenue reached 1.6 billion yuan, a growth of 50.09% year-on-year [5] - The average selling price of commodity pigs was 15.66 yuan/kg, a decrease of 12.22% compared to the previous year [5] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for the first nine months was 11.47 million yuan, up 114.90% year-on-year [5] - In Q3 2025, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 8.15 million yuan, primarily due to improved production management and increased production capacity utilization [7] Group 2: Cost and Efficiency - The complete cost in September 2025 was 14.4 yuan/kg, with cash costs at 12.85 yuan/kg; the target for next year is to reduce this to below 13 yuan/kg [8] - The weaning pig cost in September was 283 yuan per head [9] - The company's asset-liability ratio as of September 30, 2025, was 45.21% [12] Group 3: Production and Future Goals - The company aims to increase its breeding scale, with a target of 250,000 pigs to be sold in 2026 and 500,000 in 2027 [10][11] - The current scale of the company's breeding is approximately 60,000 pigs per year, primarily using self-raised piglets [9] Group 4: Market Indicators - The PSY (Pig Supply Index) in September was around 26 [13]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Muyuan Foods, reported a live birth rate of approximately 86% for its pigs from birth to market by June 2025, indicating strong operational efficiency in pig farming [1] Group 1: Production Efficiency - The company's total cost of pig farming is significantly influenced by feed costs, which account for 55-60% of the total expenses [1] - The company aims to enhance the growth potential of its pig herd and improve overall health levels to reduce feed-to-meat ratios and increase feed conversion efficiency [1] Group 2: Cost Management - The company plans to adjust feed formulations based on raw material prices to effectively lower feed costs [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Synchronize with the Market" [2] Core Viewpoints - In April 2025, the overall pig output of listed pig companies decreased month-on-month but increased year-on-year, with a total output of 16.69 million heads, representing a year-on-year increase of 37.25% and a month-on-month decrease of 5.27% [6] - The average selling price of commodity pigs in April was 14.95 yuan/kg, showing a slight month-on-month increase of 1.05% [6] - The report suggests that the supply of commodity pigs will be marginally relaxed in 2025, with expected average selling prices lower than last year, but quality pig companies are likely to maintain good profitability due to low costs and efficiency advantages [6] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector experienced a decline of 2.02% in the last month, but a growth of 5.13% over three months, and a decline of 6.81% over twelve months [4] Key Stock Analysis - For the key stock "Muyuan Foods," the estimated EPS for 2024 is 3.27 yuan with a PE ratio of 11.99, while for 2025 it is projected to be 2.64 yuan with a PE ratio of 14.87, and for 2026, it is expected to be 3.93 yuan with a PE ratio of 9.98, with a rating of "Increase Holding" [6] Sales Data - In April, the commodity pig output from listed companies was 13.73 million heads, a month-on-month decrease of 2.88%, while the cumulative output from January to April was 52.35 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 18.91% [6] - The sales volume of piglets in April was 2.31 million heads, a month-on-month decrease of 18.68%, but the cumulative sales from January to April showed a significant year-on-year increase of 241.77% for Muyuan Foods [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term hog prices may fluctuate, and in the medium - to - long - term, hog prices may still hit new lows [4] - The basis is that from sow and piglet data, hog supplies in Q2, Q3, and Q4 of 2025 are abundant, demand support in Q2 and Q3 is weak, current hog slaughter weight is increasing, and although there is uncertainty about new lows in the medium - to - long - term, the short - term market has no strong motivation to reduce weight and the futures price is in a reasonable range [4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Dynamics - On May 15, the number of registered hog warehouse receipts was 701 lots [2] - The LH2507 contract is mainly about spot - futures convergence and delivery game, and the far - month contracts are fluctuating weakly due to the possible increase in subsequent slaughter volume [2] - The main contract (LH2509) added 5,221 lots today, with a position of about 77,600 lots, a maximum price of 14,015 yuan/ton, a minimum price of 13,735 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 13,780 yuan/ton [2] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the number of fertile sows, the hog supply from March to December is expected to increase monthly but with a limited range. From the piglet data, the hog slaughter volume will increase in Q2 and Q3 of 2025. The first half of the year is the off - season for demand, and the second half is the peak season [3] - Based on historical situations and current fundamentals, the fat - standard price difference may fluctuate and adjust [3] - Short - side logic: The breeding side has not reduced weight, subsequent slaughter volume is expected to increase, and demand support in Q2 and Q3 is limited. Long - side logic: There is still room for an increase in frozen product inventory, the spot price is firm, the increase in subsequent slaughter volume is limited, and rising corn and soybean meal prices may increase hog breeding costs [3] 3.3 Strategy Suggestions - The view is that short - term hog prices may fluctuate, and in the medium - to - long - term, there may be new lows [4] - The core logic includes abundant hog supplies in Q2, Q3, and Q4 of 2025, weak demand support in Q2 and Q3, increasing hog slaughter weight indicating inventory accumulation by the breeding side, and although there may be new lows in the medium - to - long - term, due to high uncertainty and weak short - term weight - reduction motivation, it is recommended to wait and see [4] 3.4 Market Overview - On May 15, the national average hog slaughter price was 14.68 yuan/kg, down 0.06 yuan/kg or 0.41% from the previous day. The prices in Henan and Sichuan also decreased [6] - Futures prices of various contracts decreased, with the 09 - contract dropping by 240 yuan/ton or 1.71% [6] - The main basis in Henan increased by 140 yuan/ton or 13.46% [6] 3.5 Key Data Tracking - The report presents data on the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the main hog contract in Henan, the price difference between the 07 - 09 contracts, and the price difference between the 09 - 11 contracts [14]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term hog prices may fluctuate, and in the medium - to - long - term, hog prices may still hit new lows [4] - From sow and piglet data, hog supplies in Q2, Q3, and Q4 of 2025 will be abundant, and there is no basis for a significant increase in hog prices [4] - Demand in Q2 and Q3 provides weak support for hog prices and cannot drive obvious price increases [4] - The current increasing hog slaughter weight indicates that the breeding side is still accumulating inventory, which is bearish for the future market. If there is a concentrated weight reduction later, hog prices may hit new lows [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Dynamics - On May 12, 2025, the registered hog warehouse receipts were 704 lots [2] - The LH2507 contract is mainly focused on spot - futures convergence and delivery games, and contradictions in the far - month contracts are still accumulating, with the futures price fluctuating and adjusting [2] - The main contract (LH2509) added 35 lots in positions today, with approximately 71,400 lots held. The highest price was 13,930 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,855 yuan/ton, and it closed at 13,870 yuan/ton [2] 2. Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the number of fertile sows, hog supplies from March to December are expected to increase monthly, but the increase is limited. Piglet data shows that hog slaughter volumes will generally increase in Q2 and Q3 of 2025. In terms of demand, the first half of the year is the off - season, and the second half is the peak season [3] - Based on historical situations and current fundamentals, the fat - standard price difference may fluctuate and adjust [3] - Market bearish logic: The breeding side has not yet reduced weights, which is actually bearish for the future market; subsequent slaughter volumes are expected to continue to increase; Q2 and Q3 are not the consumption peak seasons, and demand support for hog prices is limited [3] - Market bullish logic: There is still room for an increase in frozen - product inventory, which can support hog prices; the spot price is firm, indicating that supply and demand are not as loose as the bears think; although there will be an increase in subsequent slaughter, the increase is limited, and Q3 and Q4 are gradually entering the peak hog consumption season; rising prices of corn and soybean meal may increase hog breeding costs [3] 3. Strategy Recommendations - It is recommended to wait and see for now because although there may be new lows in the spot market in the medium - to - long - term, the uncertainty is high, the short - term weight - reduction driving force in the market is not strong, and the futures price is in a relatively reasonable range [4] 4. Market Overview - On May 12, 2025, the national average hog slaughter price was 14.77 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.02 yuan/kg or 0.14% from May 9 [6] - The hog slaughter price in Henan remained unchanged at 15.11 yuan/kg, while in Sichuan, it decreased by 0.1 yuan/kg to 14.57 yuan/kg, a decline of 0.68% [6] - Among the futures prices, the 01, 03, 09, and 11 contracts decreased, with declines ranging from 0.19% to 0.39%, while the 05 and 07 contracts increased, with increases of 0.39% and 0.22% respectively [6] - The main basis in Henan increased by 105 yuan/ton to 1,240 yuan/ton, an increase of 9.25% [6] 5. Key Data Tracking - The report presents data trends of national hog slaughter prices, sample enterprise slaughter volumes, white - strip average prices, national corn purchase prices in grain depots, futures contract closing prices in the past 180 days, the main contract basis in the Henan region, 07 - 09 contract spreads, and 09 - 11 contract spreads from 2021 to 2025 [7][8][10][11][13]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term pig prices may fluctuate, and there is a possibility of new lows in the medium - to - long - term [2] - It is recommended to wait and see for now due to high uncertainty in the medium - to - long - term and relatively reasonable current futures prices [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Dynamics - On May 7, there were 705 registered pig futures warehouse receipts [3] - The LH2507 contract is mainly about spot - futures convergence and delivery games, and contradictions in far - month contracts are still accumulating with the futures price fluctuating and adjusting [3] - The main contract (LH2509) added 1,403 lots today, with a position of about 72,200 lots, a maximum price of 14,035 yuan/ton, a minimum price of 13,940 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 13,985 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the number of breeding sows, the supply of pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. Based on piglet data, the number of pig slaughterings will generally increase in the second and third quarters of 2025. The first half of the year is the off - season for demand, while the second half is the peak season [1] - Based on historical and current fundamentals, the fat - standard price difference may fluctuate and adjust [1] - Bearish factors: the breeding side has not reduced the weight of pigs, which is bearish for the future market; the subsequent number of slaughterings is expected to continue to increase; the demand in the second and third quarters is not strong enough to support pig prices. Bullish factors: the inventory of slaughtering enterprises is not complete, which can support pig prices; the spot price is firm, indicating that the supply - demand situation is not as loose as the bears think; although the subsequent number of slaughterings will increase, the increase is limited, and the consumption peak season will gradually arrive in the third and fourth quarters; the rising prices of corn and soybean meal may increase the cost of pig breeding [1] Strategy Suggestions - The short - term pig price may fluctuate, and there is a possibility of new lows in the medium - to - long - term due to sufficient pig supply in the second, third, and fourth quarters of 2025, weak demand support, and the breeding side still increasing inventory [2] - It is recommended to wait and see for now because of high uncertainty in the medium - to - long - term, weak short - term weight - reduction motivation, and relatively reasonable futures prices [2] Market Data - On May 7, the national average pig slaughter price was 14.81 yuan/kg, with no change from the previous day. The slaughter price in Henan increased by 0.05 yuan/kg (0.33%) to 15.06 yuan/kg, and that in Sichuan increased by 0.02 yuan/kg (0.14%) to 14.76 yuan/kg [4] - Futures prices of various contracts generally increased slightly on May 7, with the 01 - contract up 0.22%, the 03 - contract up 0.38%, the 07 - contract up 0.26%, the 09 - contract up 0.18%, and the 11 - contract up 0.07%. The 05 - contract remained unchanged [4] - The main contract basis in Henan increased by 25 yuan/ton (2.38%) to 1,075 yuan/ton on May 7 [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term pig prices may fluctuate, and in the medium - to - long - term, pig prices may still reach new lows [4] - The basis is that from sow and piglet data, the supply of pigs in the second, third, and fourth quarters of 2025 is abundant, and there is no basis for a significant increase in pig prices; demand support for pig prices is weak in the second and third quarters; the current live - pig slaughter weight is still increasing, indicating inventory accumulation by the breeding side, which is bearish for the future market [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Dynamics - On May 6, the registered warehouse receipts of live pigs were 705 lots [2] - The LH2507 contract is mainly about spot - futures convergence and delivery game, and the far - month contracts are weakly operating due to the expected increase in subsequent slaughter [2] - The main contract (LH2509) added 1030 lots in positions today, with a position of about 70,800 lots, a maximum price of 13,970 yuan/ton, a minimum price of 13,855 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 13,960 yuan/ton [2] 2. Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the number of breeding sows, the supply of live pigs from March to December is expected to increase month - by - month, but the increase is limited. From piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs will generally increase fluctuantly in the second and third quarters of 2025. The first half of the year is the off - season for demand, and the second half is the peak season [3] - Based on historical situations and current fundamentals, the fat - standard price difference may fluctuate and adjust [3] - Bearish logic: The breeding side has not yet reduced the weight, which is actually bearish for the future market; subsequent slaughter volume is expected to continue to increase; the second and third quarters are not the peak consumption season, and demand support for pig prices is limited [3] - Bullish logic: Slaughter enterprises' inventory replenishment is not over, which can support pig prices; the spot price is firm, indicating that supply and demand are not as loose as the bears think; although there will be an increase in subsequent slaughter, the increase is limited, and the third and fourth quarters are gradually entering the peak consumption season for live pigs; the increase in the prices of corn and soybean meal may raise the cost of pig farming [3] 3. Strategy Suggestions - The view is that short - term pig prices may fluctuate, and in the medium - to - long - term, pig prices may still reach new lows [4] - The core logic is that the supply of live pigs in the second, third, and fourth quarters of 2025 is abundant, demand support is weak in the second and third quarters, the current live - pig slaughter weight is increasing, indicating inventory accumulation, and if there is a concentrated weight reduction later, pig prices may reach new lows. Due to high uncertainty in the medium - to - long - term and weak short - term weight - reduction drive, and the futures price being in a relatively reasonable range, it is recommended to wait and see for now [4] 4. Market Overview - The national average live - pig slaughter price on May 6 was 14.81 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/kg or 0.07% compared to April 30. The average slaughter prices in Henan and Sichuan remained unchanged [6] - Among futures prices, the prices of all contracts from 01 to 11 increased compared to April 30, with the increase ranging from 0.15% to 0.48% [6] - The main - contract basis in Henan increased by 170 yuan/ton or 19.32% compared to April 30 [6] 5. Key Data Tracking - It shows the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the main live - pig contract in the Henan region, the price difference between the 05 - 07 contracts, and the price difference between the 05 - 09 contracts [14]