Report Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Last week, affected by the corn auction news, the market's bearish sentiment quickly rose, and both futures and spot prices weakened. Currently, the grain sales progress in the producing areas is faster than the same period last year, increasing the supply in the spot market. The expectation of overdue wheat auctions has further dampened the purchasing sentiment of downstream enterprises. However, recent snow and rain in the north have reduced the arrival of corn trucks in the North China producing areas, tightening the spot market supply and supporting prices. In the short term, corn prices are likely to fluctuate within a range [9][80]. Summary by Directory 1.走势回顾 (一)期货价格 - Last week, the corn futures prices fluctuated weakly. As of the night session on Friday, the main contract C2601 closed at 2,242 yuan/ton, down 0.04%, and C2603 closed at 2,234 yuan/ton, up 0.09%. The CBOT corn futures main contract fluctuated, closing at 440.50 cents per bushel [6][13][17]. (二)现货价格 - Last week, the national average weekly price of corn was 2,321 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton from the previous week. Corn prices in Northeast China declined slightly, those in North China first rose then fell, prices in the selling areas decreased slightly, and prices at the northern ports adjusted narrowly [8][22][24]. (三)基差 - As of last Friday, the basis of Dalian Port corn - the main contract was 58 yuan/ton, 23 yuan/ton stronger than the previous week [28]. 2.上周相关信息回顾 - The total sown area of 8 major field crops in the US in 2026 is expected to decrease slightly. Market expectations for the ending stocks of US wheat, corn, and soybeans in 2025/26 will be moderately adjusted. Analysts expect Brazil's total corn production to be 1.3196 billion tons, slightly higher than the November estimate. Brazil's corn exports in November increased compared to last year. Ukraine's grain exports from July to December 5 decreased compared to last year. Argentina's corn planting progress has accelerated. The US Department of Agriculture will release export sales reports, and analysts expect US corn export net sales to be between 1 - 2 million tons for the week ending November 6, 2025 [29][30][33]. - Many regions and institutions have released a series of information on corn production, exports, and policies, including the US, Brazil, Ukraine, Argentina, and others. For example, Brazil's corn export forecast for December has been raised, and the US government will provide a $12 billion agricultural assistance plan [34][35][40]. 3.玉米供需格局分析 1.饲料企业库存情况 - As of December 11, the average inventory of national sample feed enterprises was 29.53 days, an increase of 0.86 days from the previous week, up 3% month - on - month and down 2.51% year - on - year. Feed enterprise inventories continued to increase this period but remained at a low level in recent years [47]. 2.深加工企业玉米库存情况 - As of December 11, the total corn inventory of national sample deep - processing enterprises was 2.94 million tons, up 6.75% month - on - month and down 28.8% year - on - year [51]. 3.深加工企业玉米消耗情况 - Last week, national major corn deep - processing enterprises consumed 1.4167 million tons of corn, a decrease of 0.09 million tons from the previous week. Different types of deep - processing enterprises had different consumption changes [56]. 4.深加工企业开机情况 - Last week, the corn processing volume, starch output, and operating rate of corn starch enterprises all increased slightly. The total corn processing volume of major corn starch processing enterprises was 635,700 tons, an increase of 89,000 tons from the previous week [61]. 5.深加工企业利润情况 - Recently, high corn prices have shrunk the profits of deep - processing enterprises. However, the profits of processing enterprises in Shandong have improved. As of last Friday, the hedging by - product profits of corn starch in Jilin, Shandong, and Heilongjiang showed different trends [66]. 6.进出口情况 - In October 2025, China imported 360,000 tons of corn, an increase of 300,000 tons from the previous month and 110,000 tons from the same period last year. From January to October 2025, China imported 1.29 million tons of corn, a decrease of 11.84 million tons from the same period last year [70]. 4.关联品情况 1.玉米淀粉 - Last week, the national average price of corn starch was 2,720 yuan/ton, an increase of 11 yuan/ton from the previous week. The prices in different regions showed different trends [75]. 2.生猪 - Last week, the hog price continued to fluctuate at a low level. The national average hog slaughter price was 11.19 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.03 yuan/kg from the previous week, down 0.27% month - on - month and 28.59% year - on - year [79]. 5.后市展望 and 操作策略 - Short - term corn prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. For trading strategies, treat it as a fluctuating market for single - sided trading, and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options trading [9][80][81].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Corn Monthly Report [1] - Date: November 03, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Lin Zhenlei, Yu Lanlan, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3][4] - Core Viewpoint: Substitution decreases and cost provides support. Pay attention to the grain selling rhythm and replenish stocks in a timely manner [5] Group 2: Report Core Viewpoints Supply - side - New - crop corn has increased production, and the combined port cost has moved down to around 2,100 yuan/ton. In November, the supply of new corn in Northeast and North China will continue to increase, and port inventories are stabilizing and rising [8]. - With the listing of new corn and the rise in wheat prices, wheat no longer has a feed substitution advantage over corn, and the substitution volume is gradually decreasing. The auction of imported corn has stopped, and the price advantage of alternative imported grains has weakened. Future imports may remain at a low level [8]. Demand - side - The continuous growth of pig inventory drives the feed demand to improve, but the breeding sector is in a loss, the willingness to build corn inventories is low, and spot purchases are not active. Feed enterprises mainly replenish stocks as needed, and their inventories may stabilize and slightly increase [8]. - Deep - processing enterprises have turned losses into profits, the operating rate has rebounded, enterprise inventories have slightly increased, and procurement enthusiasm has increased [8]. Price Trend - Spot prices may fluctuate around the cost price, mainly affected by the grain selling progress and the downstream inventory - building willingness. The supply - demand situation remains loose in November [8]. - For futures, the 2601 contract is still in the peak period of new grain sales, with large supply pressure. However, it is supported by planting costs and the decrease in substitutes. Contracts after 2605 are also supported by the minimum purchase price of wheat [8]. Strategies - Spot enterprises: Mainly replenish stocks appropriately [8]. - Futures investors: Consider lightly entering long positions and set stop - losses [8]. Important Variables - Purchase and storage policies, tariff policies, geopolitical situations, and weather [8] Group 3: Market Review Spot Market - In October, new grain continued to be listed, and corn prices declined seasonally. In Northeast China, prices initially decreased due to large supplies and then increased in the middle of the month. In North China, prices declined due to rainy weather and then rebounded at the end of the month. In the sales areas, prices followed the decline in the production areas [10]. - As of October 31, the reference price of corn in Harbin was 2,010 yuan/ton, and the second - grade corn in Changchun, Jilin was 2,070 yuan/ton. The price of deep - processed corn in Shouguang, Shandong was 2,136 yuan/ton, a decrease of 154 yuan/ton from the previous month. The purchase price of new grain in Jinzhou Port was 2,070 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price of second - grade Northeast corn in Shekou Port, Guangdong was 2,230 yuan/ton, a decrease of 230 yuan/ton month - on - month [10]. Futures Market - As of October 31, the main contract 2601 of Dalian corn futures closed at 2,130 yuan/ton, unchanged from the end of the previous month [11] Group 4: Fundamental Analysis Corn Supply - By the end of October, the autumn grain harvest was nearly completed, and winter wheat sowing progress varied by region [14]. - As of October 24, the total corn inventory in the four northern ports was 1.08 million tons, an increase of 180,000 tons month - on - month and a decrease of 720,000 tons year - on - year. The total corn inventory in southern ports was 607,000 tons, an increase of 157,000 tons from September and an increase of 404,000 tons year - on - year [14]. Domestic Substitutes (Wheat) - As of October 31, the national average corn price was 2,203 yuan/ton, and the average wheat price was 2,510 yuan/ton, with a price difference of 307 yuan/ton [16]. - In October, wheat prices rose widely. Supply was tight in the early stage due to reduced circulation and transportation difficulties, and then the supply - demand situation eased [16]. Imported Substitute Grains - In September 2025, China's grain imports were 15.83 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.3% and a year - on - year increase of 12.5%. From January to September, the cumulative grain imports were 106.73 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.1% [20]. - The import volume of various grains showed different trends in September. The future import volume of substitute grains may remain low due to quota restrictions and the listing of domestic new - crop corn [20][33]. Feed Demand - In September 2025, the national industrial feed output was 30.36 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.4% and a year - on - year increase of 5.0% [35]. - The theoretical pig slaughter volume shows different trends according to different data sources. Overall, feed production is expected to continue to increase slightly [37]. - As of October 30, the average inventory days of sample feed enterprises were 24.10 days, a month - on - month decrease of 7.34% and a year - on - year decrease of 13.74% [38]. Deep - processing Demand - In October, the raw material corn price decreased, the starch industry's operating rate increased, and the output increased. The consumption of corn by deep - processing enterprises also increased [40]. - The processing profit of starch enterprises has been repaired. The inventory of deep - processing enterprises first decreased and then increased in October [40][41]. Supply - demand Balance Sheet - The 2025/26 production and consumption forecasts of Chinese corn remain the same as last month, with imports reduced by 1 million tons to 6 million tons [47]. - The planting area of corn is expected to increase by 0.3%, and the total output is expected to increase by 0.4%. The consumption is expected to be basically the same as the previous year [47]. Group 5: Future Outlook Supply - side - New - crop corn has increased production, and the supply will continue to increase in November. Port inventories are stabilizing and rising [49]. - The substitution volume of wheat and imported substitute grains will decrease, and future imports may remain at a low level [49]. Demand - side - Feed enterprises' inventory - building willingness is low, mainly replenishing stocks as needed. Deep - processing enterprises' procurement enthusiasm has increased [49]. Price and Strategy - Spot prices may fluctuate around the cost price. Futures prices are supported by costs and substitution factors [49]. - Spot enterprises should replenish stocks appropriately, and futures investors can consider lightly entering long positions [49]