Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that inflation expectations serve as a "macro engine" for commodity markets, with recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East significantly influencing commodity trends, particularly leading to a surge in oil prices and a renewed focus on inflation trades, which may also heighten the risk of stagflation [2]. Group 1: Commodity Trends - Since January, commodities have shown overall strength with a structural market characterized by significant increases in energy prices, high levels in precious metals, a rebound in agricultural products, and weaker performance in the black commodities sector, reflecting rising supply chain risks and intensified policy negotiations [2]. - The recent geopolitical conflicts have notably increased market attention on agricultural products, leading to heightened speculative activity and a significant rise in implied volatility, with agricultural prices increasingly following oil price movements, indicating that macro-level influences outweigh basic supply-demand fundamentals [2]. Group 2: Correlation Between Oil and Agricultural Products - Historical data shows varying correlations between oil and agricultural products, with imported agricultural products being most affected. From 2016 to present, the correlation between Brent crude oil and agricultural prices, such as U.S. soybean oil, cotton, and corn, has been notably strong, often exceeding 0.67 [3]. Group 3: Oil Market Dynamics - In early March, the oil market experienced a rapid upward pulse due to U.S.-Iran tensions, although prices have since retreated, establishing a higher price baseline. The oilseed market has strengthened due to both commodity market sentiment and the supportive fundamentals of biodiesel, making oilseeds a preferred choice among agricultural products [6]. - The current oil market dynamics differ from the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict, as the oil market is now influenced by ongoing geopolitical tensions, with no clear signals for a ceasefire, leading to a gradual increase in oil price baselines [9]. Group 4: Agricultural Costs and Production - The conflict has raised fertilizer and chemical costs significantly, with the USDA estimating a 92% increase in fertilizer costs and a 54% increase in chemical costs for soybean planting in 2022. This cost increase is expected to persist into 2025 and 2026, leading to an overall rise in planting costs by approximately 9% [11]. - The soybean market is currently under pressure due to several years of high production, resulting in relatively low prices. However, the market sentiment is shifting, with the potential for upward price movement due to geopolitical events and changes in trade policies [12]. Group 5: Cotton Market Outlook - The ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict is expected to impact the cotton industry through increased costs across the supply chain, including planting, processing, and transportation. The ICAC predicts a 4% decline in global cotton production, which, combined with geopolitical uncertainties, may lead to increased price volatility [19]. - Short-term cotton prices are expected to remain strong, with potential for further increases if the conflict continues, as rising energy costs and declining production expectations converge [20]. Group 6: Sugar Market Dynamics - The global sugar market is currently in a production increase cycle, but prices are under pressure due to high industrial inventories. However, the market is showing signs of cost support, and geopolitical tensions may indirectly influence sugar prices through the ethanol market [27]. - The conflict has created disruptions in sugar supply chains, particularly affecting refined sugar exports, which may lead to tighter supply and upward price pressure in the sugar market [27]. Group 7: Corn Market Insights - The geopolitical tensions have led to significant uncertainty in logistics and production in the Middle East, driving up oil prices and subsequently impacting grain markets. Despite a generally loose supply-demand balance for corn and wheat, macroeconomic factors are currently dominating market dynamics [34]. - Domestic corn prices have strengthened due to market speculation and concerns over supply gaps, with expectations of continued price increases in the short term [34]. Group 8: Egg and Pork Markets - The fluctuations in oil prices are impacting the egg market primarily through cost channels, as rising feed prices due to increased demand for biofuels are expected to elevate production costs for eggs [42]. - The pork market is experiencing indirect effects from rising feed costs, which could lead to increased production costs and potential supply pressures in the near term [49].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 3 - month USDA report is the same as last month. Due to the continued rise in crude oil this week, US corn has reached its highest level since January. The US corn 05 contract has risen to around 460 cents per bushel. The import profit of US corn and Brazilian corn is relatively high. After the Spring Festival, with the warming weather, farmers are selling more grain, and traders and downstream buyers are replenishing their stocks. Corn spot prices are rising, and port inventories are still low. However, the wheat auction volume has increased this week. It is expected that farmers will sell more grain in March, but the downstream and channel inventories are still low, so the spot price is expected to remain stable. The price difference between wheat and corn in North China has narrowed, and it is expected that the supply of North China corn will increase next week. The increase in supply at the northern ports in the short - term, combined with the increase in wheat auction volume, but the downstream inventory is still low, so the callback of the 05 corn contract is limited. Attention should be paid to the auctions of brown rice and corn, as well as the impact of rising crude oil on corn [4]. - The operating rate of starch factories has increased, downstream提货 has improved, and starch inventory has decreased, remaining lower than last year. The sharp rise in corn spot prices has led to a significant increase in starch spot prices. Starch enterprises are making good profits. It is expected that the supply of corn spot will increase next week, and by - product prices are high, so the starch spot price is expected to remain strong. The 05 corn starch contract is expected to fluctuate at a high level following corn [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Corn**: The 3 - month USDA report is flat compared to last month. Crude oil has pushed up US corn prices. The 05 contract of US corn has reached 460 cents per bushel. The import profit of US and Brazilian corn is high. After the Spring Festival, the increase in farmers' grain sales and downstream replenishment has led to an increase in corn spot prices. Although the wheat auction volume has increased this week, it is expected that the corn spot price will remain stable in March due to low downstream inventories. The price difference between wheat and corn in North China has narrowed, and it is expected that the supply of North China corn will increase next week. The increase in supply at the northern ports in the short - term and the increase in wheat auction volume will limit the callback of the 05 corn contract. Attention should be paid to the auctions of brown rice and corn and the impact of crude oil [4]. - **Starch**: The operating rate of starch factories has increased, downstream提货 has improved, and starch inventory has decreased. The sharp rise in corn prices has led to a significant increase in starch prices, and enterprises are making good profits. It is expected that the starch spot price will remain strong next week, and the 05 corn starch contract will fluctuate at a high level following corn [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: - Unilateral: Try to buy US corn 05 below 440 cents per bushel. Go long on the 05 corn contract on dips [5]. - Arbitrage: Expand the price difference between the 05 corn and starch contracts on dips [5]. - Options: Adopt a cumulative purchase strategy for the 05 corn contract after a callback [5]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis 3.2.1 International - **Crude oil drives up US corn prices**: The 3 - month US corn report shows stable yield per unit area and planting area, with a yield per unit area of 186.5 bushels per acre. This week, crude oil has continued to rise, and the 05 contract has reached a high of 460 cents per bushel. China has lowered tariffs on US agricultural products. The import cost of US Western corn in May is around 2,230 yuan per ton, and the import profit is good. As of March 12, the import profit of Brazilian corn arriving in July at Guangdong Port is 201 yuan per ton [9]. - **Increase in non - commercial net long positions in US corn and decrease in ethanol production**: As of March 5, the non - commercial net long position of US corn is 90,000 lots, showing an increase. US ethanol production has decreased. The 05 contract of US corn has risen to a phased high of 460 cents per bushel [16]. 3.2.2 Domestic - **Decrease in deep - processing and feed enterprise inventories and increase in deep - processing consumption**: As of March 11, the average corn inventory of 47 large - scale feed mills is 30.06 days, a decrease of 1.09 days compared to the previous week and a 6.73% decrease compared to the same period last year. From March 5 to March 11, 149 major corn deep - processing enterprises consumed 1.269 million tons of corn, an increase of 49,100 tons compared to the previous week. As of March 11, the corn inventory of 96 deep - processing enterprises is 3.377 million tons, a 1.75% decrease from the previous week and a 31.69% decrease compared to the same period last year. It is expected that the inventory will increase next week [20][21]. - **Increase in northern port corn inventory and decrease in southern port grain inventory**: As of March 6, the corn inventory at the four northern ports is 1.951 million tons, an increase of 224,000 tons compared to the previous week and a decrease of 3.107 million tons compared to the same period last year. The shipping volume at the four ports this week is 341,000 tons, an increase of 109,000 tons compared to the previous week. The domestic trade corn inventory at Guangdong Port is 524,000 tons, a decrease of 219,000 tons compared to the previous week; the foreign trade inventory is 172,000 tons, an increase of 23,000 tons compared to the previous week; the imported sorghum is 302,000 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons compared to the previous week; the imported barley is 740,000 tons, an increase of 101,000 tons compared to the previous week. The total grain inventory is 1.738 million tons, a decrease of 93,000 tons compared to the previous week [24]. - **Slower grain - selling progress**: As of March 12, the overall grain - selling progress of 13 provinces is 74%, a 4% increase compared to the previous week and a 6% decrease compared to the same period last year; the overall grain - selling progress of 7 provinces (Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning, Inner Mongolia, Hebei, Shandong, and Henan) is 73%, a 5% increase compared to the previous week and a 6% decrease compared to the same period last year [28]. - **Starch**: The operating rate of deep - processing enterprises has increased. From March 5 to March 12, the national corn processing volume is 598,400 tons, and the starch production is 304,900 tons, an increase of 6,600 tons compared to the previous week. The operating rate is 55.73%, an increase of 1.21% compared to the previous week. The increase in corn and by - product prices has improved enterprise profits. The profit per ton of corn in Heilongjiang is 12 yuan, an increase of 55 yuan compared to the previous week, and the profit in Shandong is 22 yuan, an increase of 56 yuan compared to the previous week. The downstream提货 is stable, and the increase in the operating rate has led to a decrease in starch inventory. As of March 11, the corn starch inventory is 1.209 million tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons compared to the previous week, a 0.82% decrease, a 0.9% increase compared to the previous month, and an 11.2% decrease compared to the same period last year [32]. - **Substitute products**: The wheat price is strong, with the arrival price in North China basically at 2,570 yuan per ton. The price difference between wheat and corn has narrowed, and the prices of North China and Northeast corn have risen, with the price difference between North China and Northeast corn expanding [39]. 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking - **Livestock and Poultry**: From March 6 to March 12, the self - breeding and self - raising profit of pigs is - 233 yuan per head, a decrease of 57 yuan per head compared to the previous week; the profit of purchasing piglets is - 144 yuan per head, a decrease of 56 yuan per head compared to the previous week. From March 5 to March 12, the breeding profit of white - feather broilers is 0.92 yuan per bird, compared to 1.04 yuan per bird last week. The egg - laying hen breeding cost is 3.62 yuan per catty, and the breeding profit is - 0.59 yuan per catty, compared to - 0.57 yuan per catty last week [43][49]. - **Deep - processing**: The operating rate of starch sugar has increased. This week, the operating rate of F55 high - fructose corn syrup is 42.55%, an increase of 10.33% compared to the previous week, and the operating rate of maltose syrup is 37.73%, an increase of 8.77% compared to the previous week. The operating rate of paper mills has increased. This week, the operating rate of corrugated paper is 67.65%, an increase of 7.28% compared to the previous week, and the operating rate of boxboard paper is 69.78%, an increase of 6.74% compared to the previous week [52].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of US corn has weakened, and the rise in crude oil has driven up the price of corn. It is expected that US corn will oscillate strongly at the bottom. The supply of North China corn remains low, and the spot price of corn continues to rise, as does the price of Northeast corn, with the purchase price of northern ports being strong today. The price of North China wheat continues to rise, and the price difference between Northeast and North China corn remains low. However, farmers are selling more grain in March, so the upside potential of the spot price of Northeast corn is expected to be limited, as is the upside potential of the 05 corn contract [8]. - The price of Shandong corn is strong, and the price of starch in Shandong and Northeast China is rising. The inventory of corn starch has increased this week. Currently, the price of starch mainly depends on the price of corn and downstream stocking. The price difference between corn and starch is at a low level. The short - term price of North China corn is strong, and the price of Northeast corn is still rising. As the weather warms up, the supply of corn is expected to increase, and the upside potential of the corn spot price is limited. The 05 starch contract followed corn and rose then fell. The spot price of starch is rising in the short term, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [7]. 3. Summary of Each Section Part 1: Data Futures Market - For corn futures, the closing prices of C2601, C2605, and C2509 are 2368, 2395, and 2416 respectively, with price increases of 17, 2, and 4, and price increase rates of 0.72%, 0.08%, and 0.17%. The trading volumes of C2601, C2605, and C2509 are 6,857, 1,545,357, and 103,172 respectively, with increase rates of 115.97%, 95.41%, and 121.04%. The open interests of C2601, C2605, and C2509 are 9,246, 1,435,081, and 123,072 respectively, with change rates of 29.97%, - 5.56%, and 0.79% [2]. - For corn starch futures, the closing prices of CS2601, CS2605, and CS2509 are 2707, 2716, and 2727 respectively, with price increases of 12, 5, and - 5, and price increase rates of 0.44%, 0.18%, and - 0.18%. The trading volumes of CS2601, CS2605, and CS2509 are 82, 130,647, and 7,064 respectively, with increase rates of 26.15%, 64.97%, and 80.07%. The open interests of CS2601, CS2605, and CS2509 are 135, 261,060, and 16,077 respectively, with change rates of 0.00%, - 1.74%, and - 2.37% [2]. Spot Market and Basis - For corn, the spot prices in Qinggang, Songyuan Jiajie, Zhucheng Xingmao, Shouguang, Jinzhou Port, Nantong Port, and Guangdong Port are 2210, 2260, 2440, 2400, 2400, 2530, and 2530 respectively. The price changes are 20, 0, 0, 0, 5, 30, and 10 respectively. The basis values are - 206, - 156, 24, - 16, 5, 114, and 114 respectively [2]. - For starch, the spot prices of Longfeng, COFCO, Yihai (Heilongjiang), Yufeng, Jinyu, Zhucheng Xingmao, and Hengren Industry and Trade are 2830, 2700, 2750, 2950, 2960, 2990, and 2900 respectively. The price changes are 50, 0, 0, 0, 20, 20, and 0 respectively. The basis values are 114, - 16, 34, 234, 244, 274, and 184 respectively [2]. Price Spreads - For corn inter - delivery spreads, C01 - C05 is - 27 with a change of 15, C05 - C09 is - 21 with a change of - 2, and C09 - C01 is 48 with a change of - 13. - For starch inter - delivery spreads, CS01 - CS05 is - 9 with a change of 7, CS05 - CS09 is - 11 with a change of 10, and CS09 - CS01 is 20 with a change of - 17. - For cross - variety spreads, CS09 - C09 is 311 with a change of - 9, CS01 - C01 is 339 with a change of - 5, and CS05 - C05 is 321 with a change of 3 [2]. Part 2: Market Analysis Corn - Affected by the sharp rise in crude oil, US corn prices have risen, and the global corn supply pressure has weakened. The import profit of foreign corn has increased, and the import price from Brazil in July is 2325 yuan. The closing prices at northern ports are strong, around 2400 yuan, and the spot prices in Northeast corn - producing areas continue to rise. The deep - processing operating rate has increased, and the supply of corn has increased on weekends. The spot price of corn continues to rise, and the price difference between North China and Northeast corn has widened. The wheat and corn auctions continue. The price of North China wheat is relatively strong, around 2550 yuan/ton, and the price difference between wheat and corn has narrowed. The domestic breeding demand will decline in March, and the inventory of downstream feed enterprises has increased. The short - term spot price of corn is relatively strong. However, the supply of Northeast corn has increased, and the upside potential of the 05 corn contract is expected to be limited [4][6]. Starch - The number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing enterprises is still low, and the spot price of Shandong corn is strong. The spot price of starch in Shandong is around 2920 yuan, and the spot price of Northeast starch is also rising. The inventory of corn starch has increased this week to 121.9 million tons, an increase of 2.1 million tons from last week, with a monthly increase rate of 1.75% and a year - on - year decrease rate of 11.4%. The current starch price mainly depends on the corn price and downstream stocking. The by - product prices are relatively strong, and the price difference between corn and starch is at a low level. The short - term price of North China corn is strong, and the price of Northeast corn is still rising. As the weather warms up, the supply of corn is expected to increase, and the upside potential of the corn spot price is limited. The 05 starch contract followed corn and rose then fell. The spot price of starch is rising in the short term, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [7]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: The 05 US corn has support at 440 cents per bushel. For the 05 corn contract, go short on short - term rallies with a light position and set a stop - loss. - Arbitrage: Go long on the spread between the 05 corn and starch contracts when the spread is low [9][10]. Part 3: Corn Options - Option strategy: Adopt a short - term put - accumulation strategy and conduct rolling operations [11]. Part 4: Related Diagrams - The report provides six diagrams, showing the closing price of northern port corn, the basis of the 05 corn contract, the price spread between the 5th and 9th corn contracts, the price spread between the 5th and 9th corn starch contracts, the basis of the 05 corn starch contract, and the price spread between the 05 corn starch and corn contracts [14][15][19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply side: With rising temperatures and the end of the Spring Festival holiday, the willingness of grass - roots farmers in the production areas to sell grain increases, and market supply may rise. However, only about 30% of the grass - roots grain sources remain after the festival, reducing selling pressure. There is still a sentiment of reluctant selling and price support at the grass - roots level, and port inventories are still at a low level. For substitutes, the wheat price is relatively stable and has no feed substitution advantage over corn. Policy - grain auctions supplement market supply, and the substitution advantage of imported grains such as barley has increased. Future imports may continue to increase in a restorative manner [8][48]. - Demand side: The continuous growth of pig inventory drives the improvement of feed demand. After consumption, the inventory level of feed enterprises is still low. Deep - processing enterprises are deeply in loss in processing profit, with average operating rates and low inventories compared to the same period last year. There is a demand for restocking after the festival [8][48]. - Overall: In the spot market, in March, the purchase and sale of grass - roots corn will gradually resume, and market supply will increase, with possible temporary selling pressure, but the selling pressure will be alleviated. Downstream enterprises and the trading sector still have the demand to increase inventory, and the overall supply - demand pattern may still be tight. It is expected that the spot price of corn in March will mainly fluctuate and strengthen. In the futures market, with only about 30% of the grass - roots grain sources remaining after the festival, supply pressure is reduced, and market sentiment is strong. Contracts 2605/07 may still mainly fluctuate and strengthen. Follow - up attention should be paid to the later grain - selling progress and national policies such as grain投放 [8][48]. - Strategies: (1) Spot enterprises should appropriately restock at low prices; (2) Futures investors should continue to hold long - term long positions [8][48]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Spot market: In February, corn prices rose. In the Northeast, prices were weak first and then strong. In North China, prices remained strong. In the sales areas, prices rose steadily. As of February 28, prices in various regions increased compared to the previous month. For example, the price in Harbin increased by 20 yuan/ton, and that in Changchun increased by 50 yuan/ton [10]. - Futures market: As of February 27, the main contract 2605 of Dalian corn futures closed at 2360 yuan/ton, a 3.6% increase from the end of last month [11]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Corn Supply - Grain - selling progress: Affected by the Spring Festival, the grain - selling progress was slow, and the average progress was significantly slower than the same period last year. As of now, the farmers' corn - selling progress is 65%, slower than the same period in different regions. It is expected that the progress will speed up after the Lantern Festival [14]. - Port inventory: In February, the inventory in northern ports decreased slightly, while that in southern ports increased. As of February 27, the total inventory of the four major northern corn - trading ports was 190.03 tons, a 5.35% decrease from the end of last month. The inventory in Guangdong ports (eastern Guangdong) was 85.90 tons, a 110.54% increase from the end of last month [15]. 3.2.2 Domestic Substitutes - Wheat: As of February 28, the national average corn price was 2364 yuan/ton, and the average wheat price was 2528 yuan/ton. The wheat market was strong before the Spring Festival and stable after the festival. The market has shifted from pre - festival stocking - driven to post - festival off - season operation, and the market has gradually entered a rational adjustment stage [17]. 3.2.3 Imported Substitute Grains - Import data: In December, the import of grains was 10.86 million tons, a 6.0% year - on - year increase. In 2025, the cumulative import of grains was 140.56 million tons, a 10.8% year - on - year decrease. Different grains had different import trends. The import advantage of other grains has increased, and future imports may continue to increase [21][27]. 3.2.4 Feed Demand - Feed production: In 2025, the total output of the national industrial feed was 342.253 million tons, an 8.6% increase from the previous year. Different types of feed had different growth rates. - Pig production capacity: According to different data sources, the inventory of sows of reproductive age showed different trends. Overall, the pig slaughter in the first half of the year may increase slightly and year - on - year, so the feed output is expected to continue to increase slightly and year - on - year [30][34]. - Feed enterprise inventory: As of February 28, the average inventory time of national sample feed enterprises was 31.29 days, a 2.00% month - on - month and 2.43% year - on - year decrease. The inventory days decreased slightly this month [35]. 3.2.5 Deep - processing Demand - Starch production and profit: In February, the price of raw - material corn continued to be strong, and the profitability of deep - processing enterprises did not improve significantly. The output and operating rate of corn starch decreased compared to the previous month and the same period last year. The processing profit of starch enterprises was in loss, and the loss in some regions deepened [40]. - Deep - processing enterprise inventory: As of February 25, the total corn inventory of processing enterprises was 3.852 million tons, a 12.55% month - on - month and 25.48% year - on - year decrease. It is expected that the inventory level will continue to rise in March [41]. 3.2.6 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - According to the February 2026 agricultural product supply - demand report of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the prediction of China's corn supply - demand situation this month is the same as last month. In the 2025/26 season, the corn planting area, yield per unit area, and total output are expected to increase. The import volume remains at 6 million tons. The feed consumption demand of corn will decline slightly at a high level, and the deep - processing consumption will stop falling and rise. The current corn sales progress is generally faster year - on - year [46]. 3.3 Later Outlook - The viewpoints and strategies are the same as the core viewpoints of the report, emphasizing the supply - demand situation, price trends, and corresponding investment strategies [48].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported net income of $67 million or $1.97 per diluted share for Q4 2025, an increase from adjusted net income of $47 million or $1.36 per diluted share in Q4 2024 [8][9] - Fourth quarter gross profit was $231 million, an 8% increase year-over-year, primarily due to higher volume and margins in renewables [8][9] - Full-year gross profit increased to $714 million, up 3% from the previous year [9] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 was $137 million, compared to $117 million in Q4 2024, while full-year adjusted EBITDA decreased to $337 million from $363 million in 2024 [9][10] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Agribusiness reported Q4 pre-tax income of $46 million, down from $56 million in 2024, with adjusted EBITDA of $80 million compared to $88 million in the previous year [11][12] - Renewables generated Q4 pre-tax income of $54 million, significantly up from $17 million in 2024, with Q4 EBITDA of $69 million compared to $41 million in the previous year [13][15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The fall harvest produced larger-than-expected volumes of grain in the Western Corn Belt, leading to significant corn and sorghum accumulation [4] - Exports for wheat and sorghum from Western assets saw sizable increases in Q4 compared to earlier quarters [4] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is committed to profitable growth in both agribusiness and renewables, with ongoing investments in ethanol production and infrastructure [5][6] - Strategic projects include the expansion of the Port of Houston and improvements in the Skyland asset footprint [6] - The company expects to complete several larger capital projects in 2026 to enhance operational efficiency and product handling [18] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism for 2026, anticipating better financial results in agribusiness and strong demand for ethanol [16][19] - The company is focused on connecting supply to end users and export demand, with expectations of higher planted acres in 2026 [17][18] - Management noted that domestic demand for production is critical for U.S. farmers, and legislative support for biofuels would benefit the agricultural economy [17][19] Other Important Information - The effective tax rate for Q4 was 19%, and for the full year, it was 16% [9] - The company’s long-term debt to EBITDA ratio at year-end was 1.8 times, below the target of less than 2.5 times [11] Q&A Session Summary Question: Strength of the Skyland business - Management indicated that the performance was not surprising due to the large fall harvest, with Skyland's EBITDA contribution finishing just shy of $20 million [24][25] Question: Fertilizer application outlook - Management discussed strong ammonia applications in the western U.S. and expected higher than normal applications in Q1 2026 [27][28] Question: Agribusiness segment profit opportunities - Management highlighted more certainty around export policies and increased nitrogen application as key profit opportunities for 2026 [31][32] Question: Ethanol business momentum - Management noted slightly stronger Board Crush than expected entering Q1, with strong fundamentals for both export and domestic ethanol [34][35] Question: Skyland contribution for 2026 - Management expects Skyland's EBITDA for 2026 to normalize in the $25 million-$35 million range, assuming mid-cycle market conditions [42] Question: Farmer selling dynamics - Management indicated that higher prices would drive more selling from farmers, with substantial selling expected before the next harvest [44][45]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2025, the company reported net income of $67 million or $1.97 per diluted share, with adjusted net income of $70 million or $2.04 per diluted share, compared to adjusted net income of $47 million or $1.36 per diluted share in Q4 2024 [8][9] - Q4 gross profit was $231 million, an 8% increase year-over-year, primarily due to higher volume and margins in renewables [9] - Full-year gross profit was $714 million, a 3% increase, driven by the Skyland investment [9] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 was $137 million, compared to $117 million in 2024, while full-year adjusted EBITDA was $337 million, down from $363 million in 2024 [9][10] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Agribusiness reported Q4 pre-tax income of $46 million, down from $56 million in 2024, with adjusted EBITDA of $80 million compared to $88 million in 2024 [11][12] - Renewables generated Q4 pre-tax income of $54 million, significantly up from $17 million in 2024, with Q4 EBITDA of $69 million compared to $41 million in 2024 [13][15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The fall harvest produced larger than expected volumes of grain in the Western Corn Belt, leading to significant corn and sorghum accumulation at favorable basis values [4] - Exports for wheat and sorghum from Western assets saw sizable increases in Q4 compared to earlier quarters [4] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is committed to profitable growth in both agribusiness and renewables, with ongoing investments in ethanol production and infrastructure [5][6] - Strategic projects include the expansion of the Port of Houston and improvements in the Skyland asset footprint [6] - The company plans to begin operations at a renewable feedstock storage facility in Kansas and is focused on connecting supply to end users and export demand [6][16] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism for 2026, expecting better financial results in agribusiness due to more certainty in global grain markets and strong demand for ethanol [16][17] - The company anticipates higher planted acres in 2026, which may benefit the fertilizer business, although volumes depend on farmer decisions [18][19] - Management highlighted the importance of domestic demand and favorable biofuels policies for supporting ongoing growth [19][20] Other Important Information - The effective tax rate for Q4 was 19%, and for the full year, it was 16% [9] - The company maintains a disciplined approach to capital spending, with long-term debt to EBITDA at 1.8 times, below the target of less than 2.5 times [11] Q&A Session Summary Question: Strength of the Skyland business - Management noted that the performance was not surprising due to the large fall harvest, with Skyland's EBITDA contribution finishing just shy of $20 million [24][25] Question: Fertilizer application strategy - Management indicated that they expect stronger than normal applications in Q1, with a focus on ammonia applications for corn acres [27][28] Question: Agribusiness segment outlook for 2026 - Management highlighted potential profit opportunities in agribusiness due to more certainty around export policies and increased nitrogen applications [32][33] Question: Ethanol business momentum - Management reported slightly stronger board crush than expected entering Q1, with strong fundamentals for both export and domestic ethanol [35][36] Question: Skyland contribution for 2026 - Management expects Skyland's EBITDA contribution for 2026 to normalize in the $25 million-$35 million range [42] Question: Farmer selling dynamics - Management indicated that higher prices would drive more selling, with farmers likely to hold off until they see substantial price rallies [44][45]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2025, the company reported net income of $67 million or $1.97 per diluted share, with adjusted net income of $70 million or $2.04 per diluted share, compared to adjusted net income of $47 million or $1.36 per diluted share in Q4 2024 [8] - Fourth quarter gross profit was $231 million, an 8% increase year-over-year, primarily due to higher volume and margins in renewables [8] - Full year gross profit was $714 million, a 3% increase, driven by the Skyland investment [9] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Agribusiness reported Q4 pre-tax income of $46 million, with adjusted pre-tax income of $45 million, down from $56 million in 2024 [11] - Renewables generated Q4 pre-tax income of $54 million, significantly up from $17 million in 2024, reflecting strong operations in ethanol plants [13] - Adjusted EBITDA for renewables in Q4 was $69 million, compared to $41 million in Q4 2024, while full-year adjusted EBITDA was $203 million, up from $189 million in 2024 [14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The fall harvest produced larger than expected volumes of grain in the Western Corn Belt, leading to significant corn and sorghum accumulation [4] - Exports for wheat and sorghum from Western assets saw sizable increases in Q4 compared to earlier quarters [4] - The eastern grain assets had solid performance, with strong elevation margins and a significant portion of corn moving into export markets [12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is committed to profitable growth in both agribusiness and renewables, with ongoing investments in ethanol production and infrastructure [5] - Strategic investments include expanding the Climer, Indiana facility and enhancing the Port of Houston grain elevator [6] - The company aims to connect supply to end users and export demand, focusing on continuous improvement in safety culture and enterprise support [16] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism for 2026, expecting better financial results in agribusiness due to more certainty in global grain markets and strong demand for ethanol [16] - The company anticipates higher than normal planted acres in 2026, which may benefit the fertilizer business [18] - Management highlighted the importance of domestic demand and supportive biofuels policies for the agricultural economy [19] Other Important Information - The effective tax rate for Q4 was 19%, and for the full year, it was 16%, influenced by non-controlling interests and biofuels credits [9] - The company generated Q4 cash flow from operations of $110 million, up from $100 million in 2024, indicating stability throughout the agricultural cycle [10] - Long-term debt to EBITDA at year-end was 1.8 times, below the target of less than 2.5 times, supporting future investments [11] Q&A Session Summary Question: Strength of the Skyland business - Management noted that the performance was not surprising due to the large fall harvest, with Skyland's EBITDA contribution finishing just shy of $20 million [24][25] Question: Fertilizer application outlook - Management indicated that they expect stronger than normal applications in Q1, with a focus on corn acres despite some uncertainty [27][28] Question: Agribusiness segment profit opportunities - Management highlighted more certainty around export policies and increased nitrogen application as key profit opportunities for 2026 [32][33] Question: Ethanol business momentum - Management reported slightly stronger Board Crush than expected entering Q1, with strong fundamentals for both export and domestic ethanol [35][36] Question: Skyland contribution for 2026 - Management expects Skyland's EBITDA contribution for 2026 to be in the range of $25 million to $35 million, normalizing over time [43] Question: Farmer selling dynamics - Management stated that higher prices would drive farmer selling, with substantial selling expected before the next harvest [45][46]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, and the State Administration for Market Regulation have issued the "Guidance on Quality Improvement and Upgrading of the Brewing Industry," emphasizing the need to enrich specialized brewing raw materials [1] Group 1: Raw Material Development - The guidance highlights the importance of strengthening the cultivation and promotion of specialized brewing raw materials such as sorghum, barley, wine grapes, and brewing barley [1] - It encourages the exploration of new types of raw materials suitable for brewing [1] - Collaboration between universities, research institutions, and enterprises is promoted to develop high conversion rate, flavor-rich, and resilient specialized raw material varieties [1] Group 2: Microbial Development - The guidance calls for enhanced screening and application of local brewing microorganisms to improve the compatibility of production strains and processing technologies [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - The corn market is in a narrow - range oscillation [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Spot Prices**: The Jinzhou closing price is 2,340 yuan/ton with a change of 5 yuan; the Guangdong Shekou price is 2,420 yuan/ton with a change of 10 yuan; the Shandong corn starch price is 2,770 yuan/ton with no change. The Northeast and North China acquisition average prices are not available [1] - **Futures Prices**: For C2603, the yesterday's closing price was 2,265 yuan/ton with a - 0.18% change, and the overnight closing price was 2,268 yuan/ton with a 0.13% change. For C2605, the yesterday's closing price was 2,274 yuan/ton with a - 0.13% change, and the overnight closing price was 2,275 yuan/ton with a 0.04% change [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: For C2603, the yesterday's trading volume was 318,218 lots with an increase of 59,456 lots, and the open interest was 440,400 lots with a decrease of 64,526 lots. For C2605, the yesterday's trading volume was 402,533 lots with an increase of 154,254 lots, and the open interest was 915,263 lots with an increase of 53,252 lots. The corn full - market trading volume was 763,697 lots with an increase of 222,048 lots, and the open interest was 1,789,347 lots with an increase of 823 lots [1] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The corn full - market warehouse receipts were 60,440 lots with no change [1] - **Price Spreads**: The main 03 basis was 75 yuan/ton, and the 03 - 05 inter - period spread was - 9 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The northern corn bulk ship collection port price is 2280 - 2290 yuan/ton, and the container first - class grain collection port price is 2310 - 2330 yuan/ton, both unchanged from yesterday. The Guangdong Shekou bulk ship quotation is 2400 - 2420 yuan/ton, and the container quotation is 2430 - 2450 yuan/ton, also unchanged from yesterday. Northeast deep - processing corn prices are partially lower, and North China corn prices show mixed trends. Imported sorghum and barley prices for different origins and shipping periods are provided [2] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The corn trend intensity is 0 [3]

Core Insights - The latest USDA grain export report indicates disappointing data for traders, particularly with old crop soybean sales hitting a marketing year low [1] - Wheat and corn sales also experienced a slight decline last week [1] Group 1: Corn Exports - Corn export volume decreased by 37% week-on-week and was 42% lower than the four-week average, totaling 41.6 million bushels, which is at the lower end of analyst estimates [3] - Cumulative sales for the 2025-26 marketing year reached 1.308 billion bushels, maintaining a significant 31% lead year-on-year [3] - Corn export shipments amounted to 45.2 million bushels, down 24% from the four-week average, with Japan, Mexico, Colombia, South Korea, and Spain being the top five destinations [3] Group 2: Soybean Exports - Soybean export sales plummeted to 16.1 million bushels, marking a new low for the marketing year and falling at the bottom of analyst estimates [3] - Cumulative sales for the 2025-26 marketing year reached 80.58 million bushels, which is 20% lower than the same period last year [3] - Soybean export shipments increased by 9% week-on-week to 51 million bushels, with China, Mexico, Egypt, Vietnam, and Pakistan as the top five destinations [3] Group 3: Wheat Exports - Wheat export sales totaled 15.2 million bushels (including old and new crop), with old crop sales declining by 33% but still slightly above the four-week average [4] - Total sales were slightly below the lower end of market estimates, which ranged from 11 million to 22 million bushels [4] - Cumulative sales for the 2025-26 marketing year reached 607 million bushels, still 18% higher than the same period last year [4] - Wheat export shipments reached 14.8 million bushels, up 32% from the four-week average, with Mexico, Taiwan, South Korea, the Philippines, and Vietnam as the top five destinations [4]