截至2025年11月21日当周，玉米期货主力合约收于2195元/吨，周K线收阴，持仓量环比上周增持2138 手。 本周（11月17日-11月21日）市场上看，玉米期货周内开盘报2188元/吨，最高触及2205元/吨，最低下探 至2162元/吨，周度涨跌幅达0.60%。 消息面回顾： 11月20日，鲅鱼圈港地区水分15%容重720以上的新玉米报价2170-2175元/吨，水分15%玉米平舱价 2220-2240元/吨，较昨日下跌10元/吨。 机构观点汇总： 南华期货（603093）：从供应来看，玉米存量粮源继续消耗，供应压力逐步缓解，但四季度供应能力充 足，观察基层售粮情绪；从需求来看，深加工维持按需采购，维持库存节奏。饲料企业多同时采购本地 和东北粮源，库存水平有所上升。期货盘面延续震荡整理，现货因素驱动有限，价格暂形成窄幅区间震 荡，整体看，目前持粮主体心态较稳，下游收购刚需，短期供需结构有所平衡，重点关注年底卖压情 况，或对价格造成阶段性压力。【南华观点】底部区间偏强震荡单边上行难度较大。 东吴期货：饲料企业库存水平明显偏低，北方四港以及深加工企业库存也不高，近期也受中下游建库支 撑，期货上涨，深加工利润 ...

南华期货玉米&淀粉产业周报 —— 主动卖压减小引发玉米价格上行 戴鸿绪（投资咨询证号：Z0021819） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025/11/09 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 今年我国玉米产量有望历史首次触及三亿吨大关，全国玉米收获基本全部结束，玉米供应进入存量消耗，供 需结构逐步向平衡转移，在增产压力表现温和，进口压力明显趋弱及需求稳定预期下，供需结构从长期看有 偏紧预期； 周度期现货价格共振上涨为主，东北产区黑龙江表现稳中偏强，其他地区涨势略强，锦州港收购价格涨势明 显，南港价格跟涨为主，港口库存增长速度缓和；华北黄淮产区现货涨势明显，基层小麦种植受到降雨影响 出现延迟，影响玉米售卖进度，尤其山东地区受到现货上量较少影响，下游企业持续大范围提价收购，涨势 最为明显； 整体来看，本周玉米价格在现货供应宽松周期内出现转强表现，供应收敛是主要驱动因素，下游刚需提价收 购支撑涨价，玉米市场从供应季的供强需弱状态中有所脱离，后期关注随着价格走高，是否刺激现货卖压涌 出现象，尤其是种植主体年底前售粮变现、归还贷款导致的售粮小高峰仍将检验价格韧性，价格或在稳中有 强运行基 ...

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Corn Monthly Report [1] - Date: November 03, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Lin Zhenlei, Yu Lanlan, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3][4] - Core Viewpoint: Substitution decreases and cost provides support. Pay attention to the grain selling rhythm and replenish stocks in a timely manner [5] Group 2: Report Core Viewpoints Supply - side - New - crop corn has increased production, and the combined port cost has moved down to around 2,100 yuan/ton. In November, the supply of new corn in Northeast and North China will continue to increase, and port inventories are stabilizing and rising [8]. - With the listing of new corn and the rise in wheat prices, wheat no longer has a feed substitution advantage over corn, and the substitution volume is gradually decreasing. The auction of imported corn has stopped, and the price advantage of alternative imported grains has weakened. Future imports may remain at a low level [8]. Demand - side - The continuous growth of pig inventory drives the feed demand to improve, but the breeding sector is in a loss, the willingness to build corn inventories is low, and spot purchases are not active. Feed enterprises mainly replenish stocks as needed, and their inventories may stabilize and slightly increase [8]. - Deep - processing enterprises have turned losses into profits, the operating rate has rebounded, enterprise inventories have slightly increased, and procurement enthusiasm has increased [8]. Price Trend - Spot prices may fluctuate around the cost price, mainly affected by the grain selling progress and the downstream inventory - building willingness. The supply - demand situation remains loose in November [8]. - For futures, the 2601 contract is still in the peak period of new grain sales, with large supply pressure. However, it is supported by planting costs and the decrease in substitutes. Contracts after 2605 are also supported by the minimum purchase price of wheat [8]. Strategies - Spot enterprises: Mainly replenish stocks appropriately [8]. - Futures investors: Consider lightly entering long positions and set stop - losses [8]. Important Variables - Purchase and storage policies, tariff policies, geopolitical situations, and weather [8] Group 3: Market Review Spot Market - In October, new grain continued to be listed, and corn prices declined seasonally. In Northeast China, prices initially decreased due to large supplies and then increased in the middle of the month. In North China, prices declined due to rainy weather and then rebounded at the end of the month. In the sales areas, prices followed the decline in the production areas [10]. - As of October 31, the reference price of corn in Harbin was 2,010 yuan/ton, and the second - grade corn in Changchun, Jilin was 2,070 yuan/ton. The price of deep - processed corn in Shouguang, Shandong was 2,136 yuan/ton, a decrease of 154 yuan/ton from the previous month. The purchase price of new grain in Jinzhou Port was 2,070 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price of second - grade Northeast corn in Shekou Port, Guangdong was 2,230 yuan/ton, a decrease of 230 yuan/ton month - on - month [10]. Futures Market - As of October 31, the main contract 2601 of Dalian corn futures closed at 2,130 yuan/ton, unchanged from the end of the previous month [11] Group 4: Fundamental Analysis Corn Supply - By the end of October, the autumn grain harvest was nearly completed, and winter wheat sowing progress varied by region [14]. - As of October 24, the total corn inventory in the four northern ports was 1.08 million tons, an increase of 180,000 tons month - on - month and a decrease of 720,000 tons year - on - year. The total corn inventory in southern ports was 607,000 tons, an increase of 157,000 tons from September and an increase of 404,000 tons year - on - year [14]. Domestic Substitutes (Wheat) - As of October 31, the national average corn price was 2,203 yuan/ton, and the average wheat price was 2,510 yuan/ton, with a price difference of 307 yuan/ton [16]. - In October, wheat prices rose widely. Supply was tight in the early stage due to reduced circulation and transportation difficulties, and then the supply - demand situation eased [16]. Imported Substitute Grains - In September 2025, China's grain imports were 15.83 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.3% and a year - on - year increase of 12.5%. From January to September, the cumulative grain imports were 106.73 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.1% [20]. - The import volume of various grains showed different trends in September. The future import volume of substitute grains may remain low due to quota restrictions and the listing of domestic new - crop corn [20][33]. Feed Demand - In September 2025, the national industrial feed output was 30.36 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.4% and a year - on - year increase of 5.0% [35]. - The theoretical pig slaughter volume shows different trends according to different data sources. Overall, feed production is expected to continue to increase slightly [37]. - As of October 30, the average inventory days of sample feed enterprises were 24.10 days, a month - on - month decrease of 7.34% and a year - on - year decrease of 13.74% [38]. Deep - processing Demand - In October, the raw material corn price decreased, the starch industry's operating rate increased, and the output increased. The consumption of corn by deep - processing enterprises also increased [40]. - The processing profit of starch enterprises has been repaired. The inventory of deep - processing enterprises first decreased and then increased in October [40][41]. Supply - demand Balance Sheet - The 2025/26 production and consumption forecasts of Chinese corn remain the same as last month, with imports reduced by 1 million tons to 6 million tons [47]. - The planting area of corn is expected to increase by 0.3%, and the total output is expected to increase by 0.4%. The consumption is expected to be basically the same as the previous year [47]. Group 5: Future Outlook Supply - side - New - crop corn has increased production, and the supply will continue to increase in November. Port inventories are stabilizing and rising [49]. - The substitution volume of wheat and imported substitute grains will decrease, and future imports may remain at a low level [49]. Demand - side - Feed enterprises' inventory - building willingness is low, mainly replenishing stocks as needed. Deep - processing enterprises' procurement enthusiasm has increased [49]. Price and Strategy - Spot prices may fluctuate around the cost price. Futures prices are supported by costs and substitution factors [49]. - Spot enterprises should replenish stocks appropriately, and futures investors can consider lightly entering long positions [49]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall corn price this week was first strong and then weak. The pressure of new grain listing in the spot market still dominates the market rhythm. The corn market may enter a second - decline phase to confirm the low point under the accumulated selling pressure. The starch market was relatively strong this week, with the price showing signs of strengthening, the industry's operating rate rising, and the inventory level falling but still remaining high. The CBOT corn futures closed slightly higher this week, and the U.S. federal government shutdown led to a lack of key data guidance [1][7]. - In the short - term trading logic, the short - term disturbance of rainfall in the North China and Huanghuai regions to the new grain listing has gradually dissipated. The supply is abundant, and the price is under pressure. The increase in the number of state - owned grain reserve purchase points restricts the weakening of prices in the Northeast region. The secondary fattening of pigs may support the relatively high level of corn feed demand in the fourth quarter. In the long - term trading expectation, the supply - demand contradiction in the domestic corn market is relatively mild. The price is likely to form an important bottom in the fourth quarter, and buyers should pay attention to the opportunity. In 2026, the corn feed demand may be negatively affected, while the deep - processing demand is stable and will support the price after the peak of grain sales [7]. - The trend of the corn market is in the later stage of the downward trend, with a back - step to confirm the bottom. The 01 contract tests the support at the 2100 - yuan mark. It is recommended to short on rebounds in the futures market, but when it enters the 2050 - 2100 - yuan range, it is advisable to close short positions and wait and see. For options, a selling strategy based on the 2050 - 2230 - yuan range can be considered [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - **Market Situation**: The national autumn grain harvest is over 80%. The corn price is first strong and then weak, and the starch market is strong. The CBOT corn futures close slightly higher [1]. - **Trading Logic**: In the short - term, the supply pressure is large, and the price is under pressure. In the long - term, the price may form a bottom in the fourth quarter, and the 2026 corn feed demand may be affected [7]. 3.1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: The market is in the later stage of the downward trend, testing the 2100 - yuan support. It is recommended to short on rebounds in the futures market and consider selling options based on the 2050 - 2230 - yuan range [7]. - **Basis, Spread, and Arbitrage Strategies**: The basis has narrow - range fluctuations with no recommended strategies. The futures market shows a near - weak and far - strong structure, and the 1 - 5 spread of corn reaches a new low. For the spread strategy, focus on the long - starch and short - corn arbitrage as the starch - corn spread expands to over 300 yuan [9][11]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price Forecast**: The price range of corn is predicted to be 2050 - 2200 yuan, with a current volatility of 8.64% and a volatility percentile of 23.6% [17]. - **Risk Strategies**: Different strategies are recommended for inventory management and procurement management, such as shorting corn futures, selling call options, selling put options, and buying far - month contracts [19]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Time 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: Multiple entities, including CGS, start the new - season corn bidding and procurement, and the Trump administration plans to provide new - round aid funds to farmers [19]. - **Negative Information**: Brazil's corn export volume in October 2025 is expected to be 657 tons, and the grain - producing areas are in the peak of listing [20]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events - Pay attention to the price trend of corn due to increased spot pressure, the situation of the U.S. government shutdown and the resumption of the U.S. Department of Agriculture's functions, and the results of Sino - U.S. trade negotiations [20]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Interpretation - **Domestic Market**: Corn contracts are first strong and then weak, with the main 01 contract rising 0.76% this week. The corn starch main 01 contract rises nearly 2.4%. The trading volume and open interest of both increase [20]. - **International Market**: The CBOT corn futures close slightly higher, and the domestic demand and export expectations support the price [53]. - **Domestic - International Spread**: The spread between the domestic and U.S. corn changes slightly, and the U.S. corn price is slightly weaker than the domestic 01 contract [57]. 3.3.2 Basis and Spread Structure - **Basis Structure**: The basis changes little after the spot market switches to new - season pricing, and the difference in Jinzhou Port converges significantly [26]. - **Spread Structure**: The futures market shows a near - weak and far - strong structure, and the 1 - 5 spread of corn is at a high level in the same period [34]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Industrial Chain Profit Tracking - **Planting Profit**: The planting profit shows a slight recovery, but the overall situation is not optimistic due to the peak of grain listing [59]. - **Trading Profit**: The trading profit declines to a small - profit range as the new grain arrives at the port [59]. - **Deep - processing Profit**: The profit of corn starch continues to recover, while the profit of the corn - to - ethanol industry declines [59]. - **Disk Profit**: There is no profit on the disk, and the far - month contracts have hedging profit, but it is not advisable to enter the market for hedging [59]. 3.4.2 Import - Export Profit Tracking The import profit of corn decreases due to the rise in the international market and the weakness in the domestic market [61]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - **China**: The supply and demand of corn are basically balanced, with a slight surplus in some years [65]. - **Global**: The supply - demand relationship is relatively stable, but the inventory - to - consumption ratio shows a downward trend [66]. 3.5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - **Domestic**: The domestic corn harvest is nearing completion, and the selling pressure will last until November. The import volume is expected to remain at a low level in the fourth quarter. The inventory in the northern ports is rising, while that in the southern ports is falling [67][68][71]. - **Foreign**: The U.S. corn harvest progress continues, and its impact on China is limited [70]. 3.5.3 Demand - Side and Deduction - **Feed Demand**: The feed demand is expected to remain at a high level in the fourth quarter, but it may be affected in 2026 [73]. - **Deep - processing Demand**: The deep - processing demand is in a good range and will support the price after the peak of grain sales [78].

9月26日，大商所玉米期货仓单21814手，环比上个交易日持平。 一、行情回顾 9月26日夜盘，玉米期货延续震荡运行走势，主力合约小幅收涨0.37%，报2184.00元/吨。 二、基本面汇总 西南期货：短期国内玉米供需趋向平衡，消费延续回暖，陈粮较为紧俏，港口库存快速回归，库存压力 减退，基差偏强。1-8月玉米进口锐减，进口毛利水平仍偏高，后续进口或有上量空间；中储粮玉米网 拍持续净销售，进口玉米持续轮出，北方主产区玉米逐步开始收获，丰产预期较强，成本或下修，玉米 价格上方或有一定压力，或观望为宜 当前饲企玉米库存季节性减少，延续随用随补。据对全国18个省份，47家规模饲料厂的最新调查数据显 示，截至9月25日，全国饲料企业平均库存26.01天，较上周减少0.15天，环比下跌0.57%,同比下跌 6.94%。 美国农业部（USDA）将在北京时间10月1日（周三）零点发布季度谷物库存报告。分析机构对美国9月 1日玉米库存的平均预估为13.37亿蒲式耳，创四年低位，较之前一年同期下滑24%。然而，这一数字高 于美国农业部9月供需报告中对美国2024/25年度玉米年末库存预估值13.25亿蒲式耳。 三、机构观点 国 ...

上一交易日（9月10日），玉米淀粉主力合约收跌0.99%至2488元/吨。山东玉米淀粉价格2780元/吨，持 平。 9月11日，大商所玉米淀粉期货仓单9950手，环比上个交易日增加544手。 分析观点： 西南期货研报：短期国内玉米供需趋向平衡，消费延续回暖，主产区陈粮销售收尾，港口库存快速回 归，库存压力减退，基差偏强。1-7月玉米进口锐减，进口毛利水平仍偏高，后续进口或有上量空间； 中储粮玉米网拍持续净销售，进口玉米持续轮出，新季玉米丰产预期渐强，成本或下修，玉米价格上方 或有一定压力，观望为主；玉米淀粉产需两弱，库存高位，或跟随玉米行情为主。 | 规格 | 品牌/产 | 报价 | 报价类 | 交货地 | 交易商 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 地 | | 型 | | | | 食品级含量99 | 国产 | 2850元/ | 出厂价 | 河南省/郑州 | 河南顺之邦环保科技有限 | | | | 吨 | | 市 | 公司VIP | | 食品级含量99 | 国产 | 2900元/ | 市场价 | 内蒙古 | 河南汇亿海环保科技有限 | | | | 吨 | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Newly harvested grains will increase in production, with a significant year - on - year increase in total supply, a slight year - on - year decline in total consumption, and a narrowing production - demand gap. The annual balance is expected to be mainly in a balanced state. - In the international market, the supply - demand pattern of corn in the new year is expected to be generally loose, with production reaching a record high, consumption increasing steadily, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio slightly decreasing [4][67][68]. Summary by Directory Supply Side - In the 2025/26 season, the expected increase in new crop production is strong, and the new total supply is expected to increase year - on - year by about 12.2%, reaching 27344 million tons [12][31]. - For new crop production expectations, the sown area in 2025 is generally stable, with a slight decrease in the three northeastern provinces and one autonomous region. The national average yield per unit area is expected to increase by 10.7% year - on - year, and the national corn output is estimated to be about 26644 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 9.6%. The planting cost has decreased, and the corn collection and port cost in Heilongjiang is about 2050 - 2100 yuan/ton [13][14][16]. - For imports, it is expected that the 2025/26 corn imports will not exceed the quota, currently estimated at 7 million tons. The imports will feature strict control, multiple sources, and low volume [24]. - For other grain substitutions, the import of barley in 2025/26 is expected to continue to decline, and the annual import volume may fall below 1 million tons; the import of sorghum is expected to be low - volume with a slight recovery, reaching 5.5 - 6.5 million tons [33][37]. Demand Side - In 2025/26, the feed consumption of corn is expected to reach 176 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 200,000 tons, a decline of 1.13%; the industrial consumption is expected to reach 79 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1 million tons, an increase of 1.28% [38]. - For feed demand, the overall feed demand is expected to decline slightly. Pig feed consumption is expected to be stable with a slight decline, and poultry feed demand is expected to remain stable [44]. - For industrial consumption, it is expected to increase slightly. The demand for corn starch may increase, while the alcohol consumption may continue to decline [52][53]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - For the global supply - demand pattern, in 2025/26, the global corn production is expected to reach 1288.58 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.1%; the total consumption is expected to reach 1289.15 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.4%; the ending inventory is expected to be 283 million tons, a decrease of 570,000 tons compared to the previous year; the inventory - to - consumption ratio is 22.07%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5%. The overall supply - demand structure is expected to be balanced and slightly loose [57][58]. - For the US supply - demand situation, in 2025/26, the US corn production is expected to reach 425.26 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.61%; the total consumption is expected to reach 332.25 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.38%; the export volume is expected to reach 73.03 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.95%; the ending inventory is expected to be 53.77 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 62.2% [61]. - For the substitution balance structure of the Chinese corn market after inventory reduction, in 2025/26, the sown area is expected to be 36.29 million hectares, a year - on - year increase of about 30,000 hectares, an increase of 0.08%; the output is expected to be about 266.44 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 25.63 million tons, an increase of 9.6%; the import volume is estimated at about 7 million tons; the feed consumption is expected to reach 176 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 200,000 tons; the industrial consumption is expected to reach 79 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1 million tons; the state - owned inventory is expected to remain stable at 41 million tons [63][64][65]. Outlook and Strategy - Outlook: The international corn supply - demand pattern is expected to be loose, while the domestic supply will increase significantly, and the consumption will decline slightly, with the annual balance mainly in a balanced state [67][68]. - Strategy: - During the farmers' grain - selling period, it is recommended to short the C2601 contract on rallies. - During the traders' selling period, if the futures price falls below 2000 yuan/ton during the grain - selling season and most of the trade inventory has been built, the futures price may strengthen. - For unilateral investors, it is recommended to short the C2601 contract on rallies during the grain - selling season. - For spot enterprises, traders are advised to sell - hedge the built inventory on rallies, build inventory gradually on dips, and sell the inventory gradually during the selling season when the price rebounds; downstream grain - using enterprises should maintain a safe inventory, stock up more at low prices during the grain - selling season, and sell - hedge long - term inventory on rallies to lock in risks [6][69].

Group 1 - The main corn futures contract experienced a rapid increase, reaching a peak of 2187.00 yuan, with a current price of 2181.00 yuan, reflecting a rise of 1.02% [1] - Donghai Futures indicates that corn prices have entered a relatively undervalued range, with the new season's pricing weight increasing and the C2511 contract entering last year's pricing range of 2100-2200 yuan/ton [2] - Southwest Futures notes that there may be upward pressure on corn prices, as domestic supply and demand are tending towards balance, and the expectation of a strong new season yield may lead to cost adjustments [3] Group 2 - Green Dahan Futures suggests that short-term corn spot prices are expected to remain weak and stable, with sufficient supply due to ongoing imports and local spring corn entering the market [4] - The overall sentiment in the corn market is cautious, with a focus on policy direction and the impact of planting costs on future pricing [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The US corn is oscillating at the bottom, and it's likely to be affected by weather speculation later. The downside space of the US corn December contract below 420 cents per bushel is limited. The 09 corn contract is expected to continue oscillating at the bottom, with strong support at 2280 and resistance at 2330. The 09 corn and starch price spread will still fluctuate within a narrow range, and it's advisable to wait and see for the 01 corn contract [3]. - The开机 rate of starch factories is decreasing, downstream demand remains weak, but提货 volume has increased, leading to a decline in starch inventory. Starch spot prices are relatively stable, and starch factories are still suffering significant losses [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Corn**: The US corn is oscillating at the bottom. Northeast corn prices are falling, North - port inventory is decreasing, and North - port spot prices are stable. North China corn supply is tight, and 09 corn is oscillating at the bottom, affected by the auction volume [3]. - **Starch**: The开机 rate of starch factories is decreasing, downstream demand is weak,提货 volume increases, and inventory decreases. Starch spot prices are stable, and factories are in significant losses [3]. - **Trading Strategies**: Consider buying the US corn December contract below 420 cents per bushel. The 09 corn will oscillate between 2280 - 2330. It's advisable to wait and see for arbitrage and options trading [3][4]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis International - **Weather and Supply - Demand**: The US corn planting is completed, the July report is flat, and the weather is good, resulting in bottom - level oscillation. The import tariffs for US corn and sorghum are 26% and 23% respectively. Domestic import profits have expanded. As of July 17, the US corn export inspection this week was 1.3 million tons, with a cumulative export of 58.11 million tons. In June, 160,000 tons of corn were imported, and from January to June, 790,000 tons were imported, compared to 1.105 billion tons in the same period last year [6]. - **Non - commercial Net Short Position and Ethanol Production**: As of July 15, the non - commercial net short position of US corn was 130,000 lots, showing a decrease. US ethanol production has rebounded. The US corn December contract is expected to have limited downside space below 420 cents per bushel [11]. Domestic - **Deep - processing and Feed**: Deep - processing consumption, inventory, and feed enterprise corn inventory are all decreasing. In the 30th week of 2025 (July 17 - July 24), 1.0624 million tons of corn were consumed by 149 major corn deep - processing enterprises, a decrease of 38,100 tons from the previous week. As of July 23, the inventory of 96 deep - processing enterprises was 4.005 million tons, a 6.21% decrease from the previous week. As of July 24, the average corn inventory of 47 large - scale feed factories was 30.87 days, a decrease of 0.47 days from the previous week but a 0.65% increase compared to the same period last year [14]. - **Port Inventory**: North - port corn inventory is decreasing, while South - port grain inventory is increasing. On July 18, the corn inventory of the four northern ports was 2.209 million tons, a weekly decrease of 97,000 tons, and the four - port shipping volume was 340,000 tons, a weekly decrease of 262,000 tons. The total grain inventory in Guangdong Port increased by 122,000 tons to 1.826 million tons [17]. - **Starch**: The开机 rate of deep - processing is decreasing. From July 17 to July 23, the national corn processing volume was 501,500 tons, and the starch production was 235,200 tons, a decrease of 25,000 tons from the previous week. The开机 rate was 45.46%, a 4.83% decrease from the previous week. The profit loss has expanded, and starch inventory is decreasing. As of July 23, the corn starch inventory was 1.311 million tons, a decrease of 35,000 tons from the previous week [20]. - **Substitutes**: Wheat prices are basically stable. The price difference between wheat and corn is narrowing, the North China corn price is rebounding, the Northeast corn price is strong, the price difference between North China and Northeast corn is expanding, and the price difference between North China corn and the 09 corn contract is rising [26]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - **Livestock and Poultry**: From July 17 - July 23, the self - breeding and self - raising profit of pigs was 72 yuan per head, a decrease of 43 yuan per head from the previous week, and the profit of buying piglets for fattening was - 117 yuan per head, a decrease of 46 yuan per head from the previous week. The breeding profit of white - feather broilers was - 0.88 yuan per bird, compared to - 2.04 yuan per bird last week. The egg - laying hen breeding cost was 3.54 yuan per catty, and the profit was - 0.32 yuan per catty, compared to - 0.77 yuan per catty last week [32][37]. - **Deep - processing Consumption**: This week, the开机 rate of F55 high - fructose corn syrup was 56.71%, a decrease of 1.02% from the previous week, and the开机 rate of maltose syrup was 45.04%, a decrease of 0.74% from the previous week. The开机 rate of corrugated paper was 61.97%, a decrease of 1.04% from the previous week, and the开机 rate of boxboard paper was 65.6%, a decrease of 0.66% from the previous week [40]. - **Prices of Corn and Substitutes**: Relevant price trends and price differences of corn and its substitutes are presented through various price charts, such as the Jinzhou Port corn flat - hatch price, Weifang starch ex - factory price, etc. [42][43]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The July USDA report is slightly bearish, and the domestic corn market continues to face pressure. The US corn market is expected to remain in a state of bumper harvest, which will suppress the US corn futures market. In the domestic market, the wheat price is supported by state reserve purchases, but the continuous auction of imported corn and increased supply are dragging down the spot price. In the medium to long term, there may be a supply - demand gap in the third quarter, but the supply pressure will be high in the fourth quarter, so the corn price may rise first and then fall [1][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views - This week, the corn price continued to decline. In the US market, the July USDA report showed a decrease in the expected corn production, consumption, and ending inventory. The good harvest outlook will keep the US corn futures market under pressure. In the domestic market, the end of the wheat harvest and state reserve purchases support the wheat price. The corn market is in the off - season, and the continuous auction of imported corn and increased supply at processing enterprises are pressuring the spot price. In terms of demand, feed enterprises have sufficient inventory, and the off - season for livestock and processing industries restricts demand. The strategy is that the July USDA report is bearish, and the domestic corn futures market will remain weak in the short term. In the medium to long term, the corn price may rise first and then fall [6]. 3.2 Market Review - The CBOT12 corn closed at 412.25 cents per bushel, down 25 points from last week, a weekly decline of 5.72%. The C2509 corn closed at 2306 yuan per ton, down 47 points from last week, a weekly decline of 2.00% [8]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - **Balance Sheet**: The US corn planting area was reduced by 100,000 acres to 95.2 million acres, production was reduced by 115 million bushels to 15.705 billion bushels, feed consumption was reduced by 50 million bushels, and ending inventory was reduced by 90 million bushels to 1.66 billion bushels [12][19]. - **US Corn Weather**: In the next two weeks, the rainfall in the US soybean - growing areas will be average, and the temperature will be low [12]. - **US Corn Growth**: As of the week of July 6, the US corn good - to - excellent rate was 74%, higher than the market expectation of 73%, up from 73% the previous week and 68% in the same period last year [12][22]. - **US Corn Exports**: As of the week of July 3, the net sales of US corn for the 2024/2025 season were 1.262 million tons, up from 533,000 tons the previous week; for the 2025/2026 season, the net sales were 889,000 tons, down from 940,000 tons the previous week [12][26]. - **Feed Enterprises**: As of July 10, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 31.58 days, down 0.38 days from last week, a month - on - month decline of 1.19% and a year - on - year increase of 1.38% [12][30]. - **Deep - processing Enterprises**: From July 3 to July 9, 2025, 149 major domestic corn deep - processing enterprises consumed 1.1578 million tons of corn, a decrease of 18,500 tons from last week. As of July 9, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 443,600 tons, an increase of 1.88% [34][38]. - **Port Inventory**: As of July 4, 2025, the total corn inventory of the four northern ports was 259,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12,800 tons; the shipping volume was 41,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 16,600 tons. In Guangdong Port, the domestic corn inventory was 88,600 tons, a decrease of 15,500 tons from last week; the foreign - trade inventory was 1,300 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons from last week; the imported sorghum was 54,200 tons, an increase of 3,700 tons from last week; the imported barley was 33,800 tons, a decrease of 200 tons from last week [40]. 3.4 Spread Tracking No specific analysis content provided, only the spread types such as corn 9 - 1 spread, powder - rice spread, corn basis, and wheat - rice spread are mentioned [43][46].