1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The US corn is oscillating at the bottom, and it's likely to be affected by weather speculation later. The downside space of the US corn December contract below 420 cents per bushel is limited. The 09 corn contract is expected to continue oscillating at the bottom, with strong support at 2280 and resistance at 2330. The 09 corn and starch price spread will still fluctuate within a narrow range, and it's advisable to wait and see for the 01 corn contract [3]. - The开机 rate of starch factories is decreasing, downstream demand remains weak, but提货 volume has increased, leading to a decline in starch inventory. Starch spot prices are relatively stable, and starch factories are still suffering significant losses [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Corn**: The US corn is oscillating at the bottom. Northeast corn prices are falling, North - port inventory is decreasing, and North - port spot prices are stable. North China corn supply is tight, and 09 corn is oscillating at the bottom, affected by the auction volume [3]. - **Starch**: The开机 rate of starch factories is decreasing, downstream demand is weak,提货 volume increases, and inventory decreases. Starch spot prices are stable, and factories are in significant losses [3]. - **Trading Strategies**: Consider buying the US corn December contract below 420 cents per bushel. The 09 corn will oscillate between 2280 - 2330. It's advisable to wait and see for arbitrage and options trading [3][4]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis International - **Weather and Supply - Demand**: The US corn planting is completed, the July report is flat, and the weather is good, resulting in bottom - level oscillation. The import tariffs for US corn and sorghum are 26% and 23% respectively. Domestic import profits have expanded. As of July 17, the US corn export inspection this week was 1.3 million tons, with a cumulative export of 58.11 million tons. In June, 160,000 tons of corn were imported, and from January to June, 790,000 tons were imported, compared to 1.105 billion tons in the same period last year [6]. - **Non - commercial Net Short Position and Ethanol Production**: As of July 15, the non - commercial net short position of US corn was 130,000 lots, showing a decrease. US ethanol production has rebounded. The US corn December contract is expected to have limited downside space below 420 cents per bushel [11]. Domestic - **Deep - processing and Feed**: Deep - processing consumption, inventory, and feed enterprise corn inventory are all decreasing. In the 30th week of 2025 (July 17 - July 24), 1.0624 million tons of corn were consumed by 149 major corn deep - processing enterprises, a decrease of 38,100 tons from the previous week. As of July 23, the inventory of 96 deep - processing enterprises was 4.005 million tons, a 6.21% decrease from the previous week. As of July 24, the average corn inventory of 47 large - scale feed factories was 30.87 days, a decrease of 0.47 days from the previous week but a 0.65% increase compared to the same period last year [14]. - **Port Inventory**: North - port corn inventory is decreasing, while South - port grain inventory is increasing. On July 18, the corn inventory of the four northern ports was 2.209 million tons, a weekly decrease of 97,000 tons, and the four - port shipping volume was 340,000 tons, a weekly decrease of 262,000 tons. The total grain inventory in Guangdong Port increased by 122,000 tons to 1.826 million tons [17]. - **Starch**: The开机 rate of deep - processing is decreasing. From July 17 to July 23, the national corn processing volume was 501,500 tons, and the starch production was 235,200 tons, a decrease of 25,000 tons from the previous week. The开机 rate was 45.46%, a 4.83% decrease from the previous week. The profit loss has expanded, and starch inventory is decreasing. As of July 23, the corn starch inventory was 1.311 million tons, a decrease of 35,000 tons from the previous week [20]. - **Substitutes**: Wheat prices are basically stable. The price difference between wheat and corn is narrowing, the North China corn price is rebounding, the Northeast corn price is strong, the price difference between North China and Northeast corn is expanding, and the price difference between North China corn and the 09 corn contract is rising [26]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - **Livestock and Poultry**: From July 17 - July 23, the self - breeding and self - raising profit of pigs was 72 yuan per head, a decrease of 43 yuan per head from the previous week, and the profit of buying piglets for fattening was - 117 yuan per head, a decrease of 46 yuan per head from the previous week. The breeding profit of white - feather broilers was - 0.88 yuan per bird, compared to - 2.04 yuan per bird last week. The egg - laying hen breeding cost was 3.54 yuan per catty, and the profit was - 0.32 yuan per catty, compared to - 0.77 yuan per catty last week [32][37]. - **Deep - processing Consumption**: This week, the开机 rate of F55 high - fructose corn syrup was 56.71%, a decrease of 1.02% from the previous week, and the开机 rate of maltose syrup was 45.04%, a decrease of 0.74% from the previous week. The开机 rate of corrugated paper was 61.97%, a decrease of 1.04% from the previous week, and the开机 rate of boxboard paper was 65.6%, a decrease of 0.66% from the previous week [40]. - **Prices of Corn and Substitutes**: Relevant price trends and price differences of corn and its substitutes are presented through various price charts, such as the Jinzhou Port corn flat - hatch price, Weifang starch ex - factory price, etc. [42][43]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The July USDA report is slightly bearish, and the domestic corn market continues to face pressure. The US corn market is expected to remain in a state of bumper harvest, which will suppress the US corn futures market. In the domestic market, the wheat price is supported by state reserve purchases, but the continuous auction of imported corn and increased supply are dragging down the spot price. In the medium to long term, there may be a supply - demand gap in the third quarter, but the supply pressure will be high in the fourth quarter, so the corn price may rise first and then fall [1][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views - This week, the corn price continued to decline. In the US market, the July USDA report showed a decrease in the expected corn production, consumption, and ending inventory. The good harvest outlook will keep the US corn futures market under pressure. In the domestic market, the end of the wheat harvest and state reserve purchases support the wheat price. The corn market is in the off - season, and the continuous auction of imported corn and increased supply at processing enterprises are pressuring the spot price. In terms of demand, feed enterprises have sufficient inventory, and the off - season for livestock and processing industries restricts demand. The strategy is that the July USDA report is bearish, and the domestic corn futures market will remain weak in the short term. In the medium to long term, the corn price may rise first and then fall [6]. 3.2 Market Review - The CBOT12 corn closed at 412.25 cents per bushel, down 25 points from last week, a weekly decline of 5.72%. The C2509 corn closed at 2306 yuan per ton, down 47 points from last week, a weekly decline of 2.00% [8]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - **Balance Sheet**: The US corn planting area was reduced by 100,000 acres to 95.2 million acres, production was reduced by 115 million bushels to 15.705 billion bushels, feed consumption was reduced by 50 million bushels, and ending inventory was reduced by 90 million bushels to 1.66 billion bushels [12][19]. - **US Corn Weather**: In the next two weeks, the rainfall in the US soybean - growing areas will be average, and the temperature will be low [12]. - **US Corn Growth**: As of the week of July 6, the US corn good - to - excellent rate was 74%, higher than the market expectation of 73%, up from 73% the previous week and 68% in the same period last year [12][22]. - **US Corn Exports**: As of the week of July 3, the net sales of US corn for the 2024/2025 season were 1.262 million tons, up from 533,000 tons the previous week; for the 2025/2026 season, the net sales were 889,000 tons, down from 940,000 tons the previous week [12][26]. - **Feed Enterprises**: As of July 10, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 31.58 days, down 0.38 days from last week, a month - on - month decline of 1.19% and a year - on - year increase of 1.38% [12][30]. - **Deep - processing Enterprises**: From July 3 to July 9, 2025, 149 major domestic corn deep - processing enterprises consumed 1.1578 million tons of corn, a decrease of 18,500 tons from last week. As of July 9, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 443,600 tons, an increase of 1.88% [34][38]. - **Port Inventory**: As of July 4, 2025, the total corn inventory of the four northern ports was 259,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12,800 tons; the shipping volume was 41,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 16,600 tons. In Guangdong Port, the domestic corn inventory was 88,600 tons, a decrease of 15,500 tons from last week; the foreign - trade inventory was 1,300 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons from last week; the imported sorghum was 54,200 tons, an increase of 3,700 tons from last week; the imported barley was 33,800 tons, a decrease of 200 tons from last week [40]. 3.4 Spread Tracking No specific analysis content provided, only the spread types such as corn 9 - 1 spread, powder - rice spread, corn basis, and wheat - rice spread are mentioned [43][46].

Market Review - The main corn futures contract closed down 0.09% at 2320 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Summary - The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported that due to dry weather in unharvested areas, corn harvesting progressed rapidly, with 70.4% of the planted area harvested. Argentina is the world's third-largest corn exporter, with an expected corn production of 49 million tons for the 2024/25 season [2] - The USDA's weekly export sales report indicated that as of the week ending July 3, 2025, the net sales of U.S. corn for the 2024/25 season were 1,262,100 tons, significantly higher than the previous week and 70% above the four-week average. For the 2025/26 season, net sales were 888,600 tons, down from 940,200 tons the previous week [2] - The latest USDA drought report showed that as of the week ending July 8, approximately 12% of U.S. corn planting areas were affected by drought, unchanged from the previous week and up from 7% in the same period last year [2] Institutional Perspectives - According to Jianxin Futures, overall processing demand is unlikely to increase, while wheat and imported corn continue to supplement market supply, leading to a slightly pessimistic market sentiment and a minor price correction. However, the rising costs of storage funds may limit the decline. The 2509 contract is expected to follow the spot market with a focus on fluctuations, and attention should be paid to weather impacts on new crops in corn-producing areas [3] - Southwest Futures noted that domestic corn supply and demand are tending towards balance, with favorable policies and recovering consumption. The sale of old grain in major production areas is nearing completion, and port inventories are quickly returning, reducing inventory pressure and providing strong support at the bottom for corn prices. From January to May, corn imports sharply decreased, and import margins have increased, suggesting potential for higher import volumes in the future. The China Grain Reserves Corporation continues to sell corn through online auctions, and imported corn is beginning to be released. The narrowing price gap with substitutes may face upward pressure, indicating a cautious outlook [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - With the digestion of old - crop corn and tightened grain imports, the corn supply will be tight in the third quarter. However, wheat prices will cap the upside of corn prices, and potential policy - grain auctions are a negative factor. After the production situation becomes clear in September and new - crop corn is listed in October, the far - month contracts C2511 and C2601 may have a slight downward trend, but it's hard to see a trending market like last year [2][136]. - The third - quarter corn futures contracts will maintain a wide - range oscillation, and the fourth - quarter contracts may decline slightly [2][136][137]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Market Review - **CBOT Corn Contracts**: In 2025, from January to February, affected by Brazil's heavy rainfall, Argentina's drought, and strong US corn exports, the CBOT corn futures price rose from 451 cents/bushel on January 3rd to 504.75 cents/bushel on February 21st. Due to tariff policy uncertainties, expected supply increases, and slower export sales, the price dropped to 452.25 cents/bushel at the end of February and early March and then oscillated between 450 - 470 cents/bushel. In April, with the adjustment of the US corn supply - demand balance, the price shifted to the 460 - 490 cents/bushel range. Since May, the price has been on a weakening trend, closing at 411.25 cents/bushel on June 27th. The net long positions of managed funds decreased from 337,454 hands on February 25th to - 164,020 hands on June 10th [8][10]. - **Domestic Corn Futures Market**: From December 2024 to April 2025, supported by the suspension of imported corn auctions and CGSGB purchases, the market was in a state of "strong expectation, weak reality". After April, with the end of grassroots grain sales and low imports, the supply pressure eased, and the market shifted to "consistent reality and expectation". The term structure changed from "near - weak, mid - strong, far - weak" to "near - strong, far - weak". The C2509 - C2511 contract spread oscillated within 50 - 90 yuan/ton. Corn spot prices rose steadily, with the national average price increasing by 15.1% to 2432.35 yuan/ton as of June 30th [11][12][14]. 2. Supply - **Import of Corn and Substitute Grains**: Since the second half of last year, China's corn imports have significantly decreased. In May 2025, corn imports were 190,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 81.9%. The import of substitute grains also decreased, with a 57.3% year - on - year decrease in May 2025. Due to the Sino - US trade conflict, US corn imports are difficult to recover in the short term [38][39]. - **Wheat Impact**: The 2025 wheat harvest was completed in mid - June. With the launch of the minimum purchase price policy in Henan, Anhui, and Hebei, wheat prices were supported. Currently, the wheat - corn price difference is low, and the proportion and scope of wheat feed substitution are expanding, with an annual feed consumption of about 33 - 35 million tons [43][44][45]. - **Imported Corn Auction**: On July 1, 2025, CGSGB launched its first imported corn directional invitation auction, with a scale of 189,000 tons. The auction was well - received, with a transaction volume of 183,000 tons and an average premium of 103 yuan/ton. A subsequent auction on July 4th with a larger scale may have a certain impact on market sentiment [52][53]. 3. Demand - **Feed Sales**: In May 2025, the national industrial feed output was 27.7 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.6% and a year - on - year increase of 6.9%. The proportion of corn in compound feed increased year - on - year but decreased month - on - month due to the narrowing wheat - corn price difference. From January to May, the monthly sales of pig feed increased year - on - year, and the growth is expected to continue [54][55]. - **Corn Deep - processing Enterprises**: In the first half of 2025, affected by losses, the operating rate of deep - processing enterprises was low, and the corn consumption from January to June was 30.5783 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.84% [69]. - **CGSGB Corn Transactions**: Since late March, CGSGB's corn purchases have basically stagnated, and it has maintained a net rotation - out state. From September last year to now, the net purchase volume is 1.91 million tons [71]. 4. Inventory - **Port Inventory**: Since April 2025, port corn inventories have been decreasing and are now in the normal range. As of June 27th, the inventory in the four northern ports was 2.724 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17.73% [76]. - **Feed Enterprise Inventory**: Due to the increasing cost - effectiveness of wheat, the corn inventory of feed enterprises has started to decline. As of June 27th, the available days of corn inventory were 32.59 days, a month - on - month decrease of 10.81% [79]. - **Deep - processing Enterprise Inventory**: The corn inventory of deep - processing enterprises has remained stable. As of June 27th, the inventory was 4.567 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.88% [81]. 5. Corn Starch - **Price Trend**: In the first half of 2025, the price of the Dalian corn starch futures main contract oscillated strongly, with a 11.69% increase as of June 30th. The basis oscillated between 0 - 220 yuan/ton. The corn starch - corn futures 09 - contract spread and the spot spread both decreased [86]. - **Supply and Demand**: The losses of corn starch enterprises have narrowed, production has stabilized, demand has remained stable but decreased year - on - year, and inventory has started to decline since June. It is expected that the price of corn starch will continue to follow the trend of corn in the second half of 2025 [87].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The current market for old - crop corn inventory continues to decline, while the demand for corn in the breeding and feed production sectors is steadily increasing. The overall market for circulating grain is in a state of tight balance. Although the new - season wheat listing has a negative impact on grain prices, its actual impact on corn prices is limited, and multiple factors still support corn prices. - In the short term, the futures price may show a volatile trend due to price corrections in some regions and the phased pressure of new wheat listing. In the long - term, the supply - demand gap may drive inventory reduction, and the rigid increase in feed demand will gradually increase the probability of price recovery. [7][54] 3) Summary by Directory I.走势回顾 - **Futures Price Review**: Last week, the domestic corn futures main contract c2509 reached a high of 2420 yuan/ton and then declined, closing at 2384 yuan/ton on Friday, with a 0.21% increase from the previous day. The CBOT corn 09 contract closed at 411.25 cents per bushel, down 12.25 cents or 2.90% from the previous week, hitting a new low since October 2024. [5][13] - **Spot Price Review**: In the Northeast market, the price of second - class corn in Bayuquan was 2400 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous week; in Jinzhou Port, it was 2380 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. In the North China market, the price of deep - processed corn in Shouguang, Shandong was 2510 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous week, reaching a new high for the year. In the sales area, the mainstream price of second - class Northeast corn in Guangxi Shekou Port was 2440 - 2470 yuan/ton, basically unchanged from the previous week. [5][18][20] II.上周重要信息回顾 - Policy: Heilongjiang plans to expand the planting area of fine varieties, with a maximum subsidy of 500,000 yuan per variety; Russia lowers wheat export tariffs by 56% and corn export tariffs by 10%. - Weather: China Meteorological Administration predicts heavy rainfall in the southwest to the Huanghuai region in the next 10 days. - Trade: In May 2025, China's grain imports increased by 4.7% year - on - year, and from January to May, cumulative imports decreased by 29.7% year - on - year. - Industry: Brazil will increase the ethanol blending ratio in gasoline from 27% to 30% starting August 1; the ANEC predicts that Brazil's corn exports in June will be 828,959 tons, a 15.7% decrease from last year. The IGC expects the global grain output in the 2025/26 season to increase by 3% year - on - year. [21][22] III.国内玉米供需分析 - **中储粮拍卖情况**: Last week, there was 1 corn procurement auction with a 100% transaction rate; 14 sales auctions with a 90.23% transaction rate; 7 two - way trading auctions with a 90.18% transaction rate; and no import corn auctions. [24][26] - **深加工企业玉米库存情况**: As of June 25, the total corn inventory of 96 major deep - processing enterprises was 4.567 million tons, a 0.54% decrease from the previous period and a 2.40% increase year - on - year. [30] - **深加工企业玉米消费量情况**: From June 19 to 25, 2025, 149 major corn deep - processing enterprises consumed 1.1892 million tons of corn, an increase of 0.0129 million tons from the previous period. Different types of enterprises had different consumption changes. [33] - **饲企库存情况**: As of June 26, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 32.59 days, a decrease of 0.48 days from the previous week, a 1.45% decrease from the previous period, and a 3.43% increase year - on - year. [40] IV.玉米下游需求情况 - **玉米深加工企业开工情况**: Recently, the start - up rate of corn starch has shown a differentiated trend, and the overall industry start - up rate has slightly declined. From June 19 to 25, 2025, the national corn processing volume was 0.5462 million tons, and the corn starch output was 0.2646 million tons, with the start - up rate at 51.15%, a 0.46% decrease from the previous week. [44] - **玉米深加工企业利润情况**: Last week, the hedging profit of corn starch in Jilin was - 132 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton from the previous week; in Shandong, it was - 117 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton from the previous week; in Heilongjiang, it was - 136 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous week. [49] - **玉米淀粉**: As of June 26, the total inventory of corn starch in the main producing areas was 940,300 tons, a 2.27% decrease from the previous period and a 9.22% increase year - on - year. The corn starch market remains strong, with some enterprises slightly raising their quotes. [53] V.后市展望 - In the short term, the futures price may fluctuate due to price corrections in some regions and the pressure of new wheat listing. In the long - term, the supply - demand gap may drive inventory reduction, and the rigid increase in feed demand will gradually increase the probability of price recovery. [7][54] VI.操作策略 - In the short term, due to market uncertainties, it is recommended to wait and see. In the long - term, closely monitor recent macro - policy adjustments and domestic and foreign supply - demand changes, and look for long - position layout opportunities in far - month contracts. [9][55]

Group 1: Report Core View - The corn market has seen a short - term correction, but the supply - demand tight pattern remains unchanged. The futures market has declined, and the basis has strengthened. The market outlook is affected by factors such as CBOT corn price, wheat price, and corn starch inventory [2][6] Group 2: Corn Market Review Spot Market - As of May 16, the national average corn price was 2374.90 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton from the previous week. The selling progress of farmers in 13 provinces and 7 major producing provinces was 97%, 3% and 4% faster than the same period last year respectively [1] Futures Market - In the week of May 16, the futures market declined. The main contract (C2507) had a high of 2380 yuan/ton, a low of 2333 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 2335 yuan/ton. The basis of the main corn C2507 contract on May 16 was - 25 yuan/ton, strengthening from - 65 yuan/ton on May 9 [2] Group 3: Corn Market Outlook CBOT Corn - In the week of May 16, CBOT corn futures fell 1.39%. Warm and dry weather in the past two weeks accelerated sowing, and future cool and rainy weather will promote crop growth. Export demand provides some support [3] Wheat Price and Corn Auction - Wheat prices rose, and imported corn auctions stopped. As of the week of May 16, the corn procurement transaction rate was 70.50%, up 70.50% from last week; the sales transaction rate was 95.59%, down 4.41% from last week; the two - way transaction rate was 84.03%, down 15.97% from last week. The national average wheat price was 2472 yuan/ton as of May 15 [4] Corn Starch Inventory - As of the week of May 15, the total inventory of corn starch in the main producing areas was 1012600 tons, down 17200 tons (1.67%) from the previous period, and up 1.58% from the same period last year [5] Short - term Correction - The supply - demand tight pattern of corn remains unchanged. Traders' shipments have increased, but the actual shipment situation is average. The arrival volume at deep - processing enterprises remains high, and the enterprise price has been slightly reduced. The futures price has corrected, and the basis has strengthened [6]