玉米和淀粉年报 2025 年 12 月 24 日 年后玉米供应仍偏紧 新季种植成本上升 | 第一部分 | 前言概要 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2 | | 【行情回顾】 | | 2 | | 【市场展望】 | | 2 | | 【策略推荐】 | | 第二部分 | 行情回归及国际玉米基本面 | 3 | | 一、国内外玉米行情回顾 | | 3 | | 二、全球玉米供应压力减弱，重心会上移 | | 4 | | 三、美玉米陈作供应宽松，预计新季产量下降 | | 5 | | 四、巴西玉米产量稳定，出口较好 | | 6 | | 第三部分 | 国内玉米基本面分析 | 7 | | 一、25/26 | 年度玉米供应仍偏紧，26/27 | 年度种植成本上升 7 | | 二、饲料需求小幅下滑，玉米用量仍较高 | | 8 | | 三、玉米处于高位，深加工利润会下滑 | | 10 | | 四、南北方港口库存会持续上升 | | 13 | | 五、玉米和淀粉交易逻辑 | | 13 | | 第四部分 | 后市展望及策略推荐 | 15 | | 免责声明 | | 16 | 玉米和淀粉研发报告 证监许可[2011]1428 ...

12月玉米期货价格冲高回落，C2601合约强势突破2300元／吨的整数关口引发市场关注。在旧作结转库 存本就处于低位的情况下，今年华北玉米收割期间持续降雨使粮质出现明显下降，华北、华东等地区下 游用粮企业对囤粮有一定紧迫情绪，东北优质粮源备受市场青睐。下游建库提前使贸易商集中买粮兑现 此前签订的销售合同，东北粮源加速外流。不过，玉米价格反弹过程中基层农户产生惜售心理，叠加物 流运力较紧张，北方港口到港量不能满足下游补库需求，造成玉米市场阶段性供需错配。 随后，在调节性储备投放等利空消息影响下，玉米期货价格大幅回落。12月为传统售粮旺季，此前供需 错配矛盾也得到了缓解。供应方面，东北基层农户售粮进度明显加快。相关数据显示，截至12月12日， 东北售粮进度达39%，去年同期为28%。北方港口库存与前几年同期相比不算高，但11月底以来已连续 两周出现明显累库迹象。需求方面，下游订单逐步到货，饲料企业玉米库存持续回升，而生猪及蛋鸡进 入去产能周期，饲料总需求将收缩，下游库存补充到一定水平后，采购情绪将降温。因此，已经大幅上 涨的玉米价格缺乏向上的驱动。 年度供需平衡表是市场人士研判行情走势的重要参考。笔者认为，202 ...

年度报告-玉米 渠道库存虚实转，犹看政策定风波 [T走ab势le_评R级an：k] 报告日期： ★[Ta渠ble道_S持um货m意ar愿y]或迎来周期拐点 农 产 19/20 年至今，玉米价格震荡下行，除了产需缺口缩减、成本下移之 外，渠道持货意愿逐渐走低也是推波助澜的重要因素，同时也造就 了近三年玉米价格高度一致的季节性特征。但 25Q4 的玉米却一反常 态，11 月的涨速及涨幅均大超市场预期。2025 年，市场的谨慎程度 更甚以往，渠道库存的压缩程度已至极点。短周期看，25 年 11 月价 格的反季节走强，是渠道库存压缩至极点后被动反弹所带来的一次 纠偏；而长周期看，当下的市场情绪和渠道囤库需求，或许都来到 了向上转折的节点。一是由于 24/25 年贸易商囤货的赚钱效应，二 是由于 25Q4 期现双边做空后亏损的教训，三是 25/26 年度大概率缺 乏对新作一致看空预期的形成基础。（26/27 年成本预计随地租抬升， 产量虽预增，但供需未必转松，小麦托市价或有继续上调的可能。） 品 ★ 政策或为 25/26 年平衡表的关键变量，目前不确定性较强 基层上量大与现实库存持续偏紧的矛盾，表明新作的增产量恐怕明 ...

2025 年 12 月 15 日 底部确立，价格重心上移 ---2026 年玉米期货行情展望 尹恺宜 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019456 yinkaiyi@gtht.com 报告导读： 我们的观点：2025/26 年度玉米价格底部预计有所抬升，关注波段机会。 我们的逻辑：2025/26 年度国内玉米累库，供需边际宽松。2025 年国内玉米面积和单产双增，产量增加。玉米 需求端用量预期同比有所下降。因此 2025/26 年度玉米供需格局边际宽松，同时整体政策端替代品仍有余量，限制 玉米价格高点。 玉米价格年前卖压可能不明显，后续关注贸易商出货及政策拍卖。玉米阶段性供需错配矛盾结束后，今年中游 贸易主体投机需求仍在。且春节时间较晚，留给农户售粮时间较长。现阶段大中型贸易主体尚未开始大量建库，即东 北区域近年来最快的售粮进度中尚未包括集中的投机性需求。因此，我们认为次轮供需错配矛盾缓解后，贸易商将自 主以及配合政策端入市进行收购建库，农户卖压可能不明显，玉米价格回调幅度有限。后续贸易商出货和政策拍卖或 使得玉米价格再次回落。但整体价格重心预计有所上移，另外关注新季玉米情况。 投资展望：2026 年，我们认为玉米价 ...

Core Viewpoint - The corn futures market is experiencing a slight upward trend, with a weekly increase of 0.60% in prices, while supply pressures are gradually easing due to consumption of existing stocks [1][2][3] Market Performance - As of November 21, 2025, the main corn futures contract closed at 2195 CNY/ton, with a weekly trading range between 2162 CNY/ton and 2205 CNY/ton, and an increase in open interest by 2138 contracts compared to the previous week [1] - The weekly opening price was 2188 CNY/ton, indicating a stable trading environment [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - The USDA reported net corn export sales for the 2025/2026 marketing year at 2.2597 million tons, a significant increase from the previous week's 1.3948 million tons [2] - National corn inventory among 96 major processing enterprises was recorded at 2.727 million tons, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.29% [2] - The corn prices in the Bayuquan Port region for new corn with 15% moisture content ranged from 2170 to 2175 CNY/ton, showing a decrease of 10 CNY/ton from the previous day [2] Institutional Insights - Nanhua Futures noted that while supply pressures are easing, the fourth quarter's supply capacity remains sufficient, and the market is observing the selling sentiment among farmers [3] - Dongwu Futures highlighted that feed enterprises are experiencing low inventory levels, which, combined with strong demand from downstream sectors, is leading to a tightening supply situation and a rebound in spot prices [3] - The overall grain selling progress is at 22%, which is faster than the same period last year, indicating a robust selling pace [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - This year, China's corn production is expected to reach 300 million tons for the first time in history. With the harvest almost complete, the supply - demand structure is gradually moving towards balance. In the long - term, there is a tight supply expectation under mild production increase pressure, weakening import pressure, and stable demand [1]. - In the short - term, the corn market has shown a strong performance due to reduced supply and downstream price - raising purchases. However, the price may face intermittent pressure as the selling peak at the end of the year tests its resilience [1]. - The corn starch market has also run strongly this week, supported by rising raw material prices, good order shipments, and tight local supply [1]. - The CBOT corn futures rose more than 1% this week, but the bearish November supply - demand data led to a sharp decline on Friday, erasing most of the gains from Monday to Thursday [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - **Near - term trading logic**: In the Northeast, state reserve purchases support the market, and in North China, the reluctance to sell has reduced short - term supply. The downstream's price - raising purchases have supported the weekly strength of the corn market. China's corn production increase is certain, and the market is still digesting the price pressure from the production increase. The corn price is mainly oscillating at the bottom [7]. - **Long - term trading expectations**: China's corn supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. With a sharp reduction in corn and substitute grain imports and a possible decrease in high - quality corn production in North China, the medium - term supply - demand structure may tighten. The price is likely to form an important bottom in the fourth - quarter supply peak, and buyers should pay attention to the participation opportunities at the price bottom [7]. 3.1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Trend judgment**: The sign of the end of the pull - back is more obvious, and the probability of finding the bottom continues to increase. Technically, the 01 contract is supported at the 2100 - yuan mark and rebounds along the 5 - day moving average [8]. - **Strategy suggestions**: Mid - and downstream enterprises should be aware of the risk of rising long - term procurement costs. Grain - holding entities with low - cost inventory can consider partial inventory hedging at high prices to avoid pull - back risks [8]. - **Basis, monthly spread, and hedging arbitrage strategies**: - **Basis strategy**: The spot and futures prices are moving in sync, with a weaker increase in the production area. The port basis fluctuates narrowly, and no strategy is recommended [8]. - **Monthly spread strategy**: The decrease in spot supply has led the near - month 01 contract to perform strongly, narrowing the spread between near - and far - month contracts. The "sell near, buy far" strategy is temporarily withdrawn for observation [8]. - **Hedging arbitrage strategy**: Due to the fundamentals of soybeans and corn, it is not suitable for inter - variety arbitrage. The wheat - corn spread has narrowed but is still outside the substitution range. The starch - corn spread has little change, and the "buy starch, sell corn" arbitrage is not recommended for now. The pig - grain ratio's rebound space is uncertain, and arbitrage is on hold [11][12]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Suggestions - **Price range forecast**: The predicted monthly price range for corn is 2050 - 2200 yuan, with a current volatility of 8.25% and a volatility percentile of 38.4%. For starch, it is 2350 - 2550 yuan, with a volatility of 7.81% and a volatility percentile of 15.39% [18]. - **Risk strategies for the fourth quarter**: Different strategies are recommended for inventory management and procurement management, including shorting corn futures, selling call options, selling put options, and buying far - month contracts, with corresponding scenarios, hedging tools, trading directions, and suggested entry intervals [18]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Key Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive information**: State reserve purchases continue to support the market, the early sales progress is fast, and farmers' reluctance to sell has reduced the effective circulating grain sources. Terminal enterprises have to raise prices to increase arrivals [19]. - **Negative information**: The increase in U.S. corn supply pressure due to the bearish USDA supply - demand report, and the possible increase in selling pressure after the price rises [20]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Key Events - Monitor whether the price increase stimulates an increase in selling pressure [20]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Domestic market**: The corn futures market has continued to strengthen this week. The main 01 contract rose 1.68% to 2185 yuan/ton, with a decrease in open interest, a slight increase in trading volume, and an increase in registered positions. The starch market has also strengthened in sync with corn, with a similar increase rate [20][21]. - **International market**: The CBOT corn futures rose more than 1% this week but fell sharply on Friday due to bearish supply - demand data, and the rebound trend has weakened [53]. 3.3.2 Basis, Monthly Spread, and Starch - Corn Spread - **Basis structure**: After the new season started, the basis between the mainstream price at Jinzhou Port and the main contract is in a reasonable range, with little change. However, the basis in the production areas has weakened [25]. - **Monthly spread structure**: The spread between near - and far - month corn contracts has weakened this week, and the term structure has flattened. The starch basis in the main production areas has also weakened [35]. - **Starch - corn spread**: The spread has fluctuated slightly this week, and the "buy starch, sell corn" arbitrage is not recommended for now [49]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Industry Chain Profit Tracking - **Planting profit**: It is better than last year, especially in the Northeast production area [57]. - **Trading profit**: The stable and strengthening corn price is conducive to trading enterprises' purchasing and sales activities, and the inventory profit is improving [57]. - **Deep - processing profit**: The profit from corn - to - starch has slightly declined due to the rebound in corn prices and limited follow - up of starch spot prices. The profit from the corn - to - ethanol industry has continued to decline [57]. - **Disk profit**: The basis at Jinzhou Port is neutral, and the disk profit is not obvious. There is hedging profit for far - month contracts, but considering the bottom of the spot price, it is not advisable to enter the market for hedging [57]. 3.4.2 Import - Export Profit Tracking The import profit of corn has increased as the domestic price has risen more strongly than the international price [59]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Projection 3.5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projection - **China's corn**: The supply - demand balance sheet shows changes in planting area, production, import, consumption, and inventory in different years. The annual surplus is expected to be 3.55 million tons in 2025/26 [63]. - **Global corn**: The world's corn supply - demand balance sheet shows changes in beginning inventory, production, import, consumption, export, and ending inventory in different years. The stock - to - use ratio is expected to be 21.97% in 2025/26 [64]. 3.5.2 Supply - Side and Projection - **Domestic supply**: In November, the corn supply is gradually decreasing from the peak. The selling pressure will be reduced as the temperature drops in the Northeast. The proportion of high - quality corn in North China has decreased due to rainfall. Although the overall supply is still high, there may be a shortage of high - quality corn [65]. - **Import**: From January to September 2025, China's cumulative import of corn and corn flour was 930,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 92.7%. In September, the import was 60,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 81.9%. It is expected that the import volume will remain low in the fourth quarter [65]. - **Inventory**: The port corn inventory has not increased significantly, and the overall inventory is still at a low level, providing space for future corn purchasing and sales [67]. - **Foreign corn**: The U.S. corn harvest is nearing completion, and the supply pressure is high. The bearish USDA supply - demand report on the 14th has increased the supply pressure [69]. 3.5.3 Demand - Side and Projection - **Consumption**: The operating rates of major products have continued to rise. The feed demand is supported by the peak slaughter season and secondary fattening, and the overall demand in the fourth quarter remains good [71]. - **Feed demand**: It is expected to remain at a high level in the fourth quarter. The feed production is high, and the feed enterprise inventory has rebounded but is still at a low level. The pig - raising profit has changed little this week, and the reduction of pig production capacity may affect the corn feed demand in 2026 [71]. - **Deep - processing demand**: The fourth quarter is the traditional peak season for corn deep - processing products. The low - price corn has attracted downstream enterprises to increase their operating rates, driving up corn consumption. However, the growth trend has slowed down due to rising raw material prices and insufficient price increases for terminal products [74].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Corn Monthly Report [1] - Date: November 03, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Lin Zhenlei, Yu Lanlan, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3][4] - Core Viewpoint: Substitution decreases and cost provides support. Pay attention to the grain selling rhythm and replenish stocks in a timely manner [5] Group 2: Report Core Viewpoints Supply - side - New - crop corn has increased production, and the combined port cost has moved down to around 2,100 yuan/ton. In November, the supply of new corn in Northeast and North China will continue to increase, and port inventories are stabilizing and rising [8]. - With the listing of new corn and the rise in wheat prices, wheat no longer has a feed substitution advantage over corn, and the substitution volume is gradually decreasing. The auction of imported corn has stopped, and the price advantage of alternative imported grains has weakened. Future imports may remain at a low level [8]. Demand - side - The continuous growth of pig inventory drives the feed demand to improve, but the breeding sector is in a loss, the willingness to build corn inventories is low, and spot purchases are not active. Feed enterprises mainly replenish stocks as needed, and their inventories may stabilize and slightly increase [8]. - Deep - processing enterprises have turned losses into profits, the operating rate has rebounded, enterprise inventories have slightly increased, and procurement enthusiasm has increased [8]. Price Trend - Spot prices may fluctuate around the cost price, mainly affected by the grain selling progress and the downstream inventory - building willingness. The supply - demand situation remains loose in November [8]. - For futures, the 2601 contract is still in the peak period of new grain sales, with large supply pressure. However, it is supported by planting costs and the decrease in substitutes. Contracts after 2605 are also supported by the minimum purchase price of wheat [8]. Strategies - Spot enterprises: Mainly replenish stocks appropriately [8]. - Futures investors: Consider lightly entering long positions and set stop - losses [8]. Important Variables - Purchase and storage policies, tariff policies, geopolitical situations, and weather [8] Group 3: Market Review Spot Market - In October, new grain continued to be listed, and corn prices declined seasonally. In Northeast China, prices initially decreased due to large supplies and then increased in the middle of the month. In North China, prices declined due to rainy weather and then rebounded at the end of the month. In the sales areas, prices followed the decline in the production areas [10]. - As of October 31, the reference price of corn in Harbin was 2,010 yuan/ton, and the second - grade corn in Changchun, Jilin was 2,070 yuan/ton. The price of deep - processed corn in Shouguang, Shandong was 2,136 yuan/ton, a decrease of 154 yuan/ton from the previous month. The purchase price of new grain in Jinzhou Port was 2,070 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price of second - grade Northeast corn in Shekou Port, Guangdong was 2,230 yuan/ton, a decrease of 230 yuan/ton month - on - month [10]. Futures Market - As of October 31, the main contract 2601 of Dalian corn futures closed at 2,130 yuan/ton, unchanged from the end of the previous month [11] Group 4: Fundamental Analysis Corn Supply - By the end of October, the autumn grain harvest was nearly completed, and winter wheat sowing progress varied by region [14]. - As of October 24, the total corn inventory in the four northern ports was 1.08 million tons, an increase of 180,000 tons month - on - month and a decrease of 720,000 tons year - on - year. The total corn inventory in southern ports was 607,000 tons, an increase of 157,000 tons from September and an increase of 404,000 tons year - on - year [14]. Domestic Substitutes (Wheat) - As of October 31, the national average corn price was 2,203 yuan/ton, and the average wheat price was 2,510 yuan/ton, with a price difference of 307 yuan/ton [16]. - In October, wheat prices rose widely. Supply was tight in the early stage due to reduced circulation and transportation difficulties, and then the supply - demand situation eased [16]. Imported Substitute Grains - In September 2025, China's grain imports were 15.83 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.3% and a year - on - year increase of 12.5%. From January to September, the cumulative grain imports were 106.73 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.1% [20]. - The import volume of various grains showed different trends in September. The future import volume of substitute grains may remain low due to quota restrictions and the listing of domestic new - crop corn [20][33]. Feed Demand - In September 2025, the national industrial feed output was 30.36 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.4% and a year - on - year increase of 5.0% [35]. - The theoretical pig slaughter volume shows different trends according to different data sources. Overall, feed production is expected to continue to increase slightly [37]. - As of October 30, the average inventory days of sample feed enterprises were 24.10 days, a month - on - month decrease of 7.34% and a year - on - year decrease of 13.74% [38]. Deep - processing Demand - In October, the raw material corn price decreased, the starch industry's operating rate increased, and the output increased. The consumption of corn by deep - processing enterprises also increased [40]. - The processing profit of starch enterprises has been repaired. The inventory of deep - processing enterprises first decreased and then increased in October [40][41]. Supply - demand Balance Sheet - The 2025/26 production and consumption forecasts of Chinese corn remain the same as last month, with imports reduced by 1 million tons to 6 million tons [47]. - The planting area of corn is expected to increase by 0.3%, and the total output is expected to increase by 0.4%. The consumption is expected to be basically the same as the previous year [47]. Group 5: Future Outlook Supply - side - New - crop corn has increased production, and the supply will continue to increase in November. Port inventories are stabilizing and rising [49]. - The substitution volume of wheat and imported substitute grains will decrease, and future imports may remain at a low level [49]. Demand - side - Feed enterprises' inventory - building willingness is low, mainly replenishing stocks as needed. Deep - processing enterprises' procurement enthusiasm has increased [49]. Price and Strategy - Spot prices may fluctuate around the cost price. Futures prices are supported by costs and substitution factors [49]. - Spot enterprises should replenish stocks appropriately, and futures investors can consider lightly entering long positions [49]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall corn price this week was first strong and then weak. The pressure of new grain listing in the spot market still dominates the market rhythm. The corn market may enter a second - decline phase to confirm the low point under the accumulated selling pressure. The starch market was relatively strong this week, with the price showing signs of strengthening, the industry's operating rate rising, and the inventory level falling but still remaining high. The CBOT corn futures closed slightly higher this week, and the U.S. federal government shutdown led to a lack of key data guidance [1][7]. - In the short - term trading logic, the short - term disturbance of rainfall in the North China and Huanghuai regions to the new grain listing has gradually dissipated. The supply is abundant, and the price is under pressure. The increase in the number of state - owned grain reserve purchase points restricts the weakening of prices in the Northeast region. The secondary fattening of pigs may support the relatively high level of corn feed demand in the fourth quarter. In the long - term trading expectation, the supply - demand contradiction in the domestic corn market is relatively mild. The price is likely to form an important bottom in the fourth quarter, and buyers should pay attention to the opportunity. In 2026, the corn feed demand may be negatively affected, while the deep - processing demand is stable and will support the price after the peak of grain sales [7]. - The trend of the corn market is in the later stage of the downward trend, with a back - step to confirm the bottom. The 01 contract tests the support at the 2100 - yuan mark. It is recommended to short on rebounds in the futures market, but when it enters the 2050 - 2100 - yuan range, it is advisable to close short positions and wait and see. For options, a selling strategy based on the 2050 - 2230 - yuan range can be considered [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - **Market Situation**: The national autumn grain harvest is over 80%. The corn price is first strong and then weak, and the starch market is strong. The CBOT corn futures close slightly higher [1]. - **Trading Logic**: In the short - term, the supply pressure is large, and the price is under pressure. In the long - term, the price may form a bottom in the fourth quarter, and the 2026 corn feed demand may be affected [7]. 3.1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: The market is in the later stage of the downward trend, testing the 2100 - yuan support. It is recommended to short on rebounds in the futures market and consider selling options based on the 2050 - 2230 - yuan range [7]. - **Basis, Spread, and Arbitrage Strategies**: The basis has narrow - range fluctuations with no recommended strategies. The futures market shows a near - weak and far - strong structure, and the 1 - 5 spread of corn reaches a new low. For the spread strategy, focus on the long - starch and short - corn arbitrage as the starch - corn spread expands to over 300 yuan [9][11]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price Forecast**: The price range of corn is predicted to be 2050 - 2200 yuan, with a current volatility of 8.64% and a volatility percentile of 23.6% [17]. - **Risk Strategies**: Different strategies are recommended for inventory management and procurement management, such as shorting corn futures, selling call options, selling put options, and buying far - month contracts [19]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Time 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: Multiple entities, including CGS, start the new - season corn bidding and procurement, and the Trump administration plans to provide new - round aid funds to farmers [19]. - **Negative Information**: Brazil's corn export volume in October 2025 is expected to be 657 tons, and the grain - producing areas are in the peak of listing [20]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events - Pay attention to the price trend of corn due to increased spot pressure, the situation of the U.S. government shutdown and the resumption of the U.S. Department of Agriculture's functions, and the results of Sino - U.S. trade negotiations [20]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Interpretation - **Domestic Market**: Corn contracts are first strong and then weak, with the main 01 contract rising 0.76% this week. The corn starch main 01 contract rises nearly 2.4%. The trading volume and open interest of both increase [20]. - **International Market**: The CBOT corn futures close slightly higher, and the domestic demand and export expectations support the price [53]. - **Domestic - International Spread**: The spread between the domestic and U.S. corn changes slightly, and the U.S. corn price is slightly weaker than the domestic 01 contract [57]. 3.3.2 Basis and Spread Structure - **Basis Structure**: The basis changes little after the spot market switches to new - season pricing, and the difference in Jinzhou Port converges significantly [26]. - **Spread Structure**: The futures market shows a near - weak and far - strong structure, and the 1 - 5 spread of corn is at a high level in the same period [34]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Industrial Chain Profit Tracking - **Planting Profit**: The planting profit shows a slight recovery, but the overall situation is not optimistic due to the peak of grain listing [59]. - **Trading Profit**: The trading profit declines to a small - profit range as the new grain arrives at the port [59]. - **Deep - processing Profit**: The profit of corn starch continues to recover, while the profit of the corn - to - ethanol industry declines [59]. - **Disk Profit**: There is no profit on the disk, and the far - month contracts have hedging profit, but it is not advisable to enter the market for hedging [59]. 3.4.2 Import - Export Profit Tracking The import profit of corn decreases due to the rise in the international market and the weakness in the domestic market [61]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - **China**: The supply and demand of corn are basically balanced, with a slight surplus in some years [65]. - **Global**: The supply - demand relationship is relatively stable, but the inventory - to - consumption ratio shows a downward trend [66]. 3.5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - **Domestic**: The domestic corn harvest is nearing completion, and the selling pressure will last until November. The import volume is expected to remain at a low level in the fourth quarter. The inventory in the northern ports is rising, while that in the southern ports is falling [67][68][71]. - **Foreign**: The U.S. corn harvest progress continues, and its impact on China is limited [70]. 3.5.3 Demand - Side and Deduction - **Feed Demand**: The feed demand is expected to remain at a high level in the fourth quarter, but it may be affected in 2026 [73]. - **Deep - processing Demand**: The deep - processing demand is in a good range and will support the price after the peak of grain sales [78].

9月26日，大商所玉米期货仓单21814手，环比上个交易日持平。 一、行情回顾 9月26日夜盘，玉米期货延续震荡运行走势，主力合约小幅收涨0.37%，报2184.00元/吨。 二、基本面汇总 西南期货：短期国内玉米供需趋向平衡，消费延续回暖，陈粮较为紧俏，港口库存快速回归，库存压力 减退，基差偏强。1-8月玉米进口锐减，进口毛利水平仍偏高，后续进口或有上量空间；中储粮玉米网 拍持续净销售，进口玉米持续轮出，北方主产区玉米逐步开始收获，丰产预期较强，成本或下修，玉米 价格上方或有一定压力，或观望为宜 当前饲企玉米库存季节性减少，延续随用随补。据对全国18个省份，47家规模饲料厂的最新调查数据显 示，截至9月25日，全国饲料企业平均库存26.01天，较上周减少0.15天，环比下跌0.57%,同比下跌 6.94%。 美国农业部（USDA）将在北京时间10月1日（周三）零点发布季度谷物库存报告。分析机构对美国9月 1日玉米库存的平均预估为13.37亿蒲式耳，创四年低位，较之前一年同期下滑24%。然而，这一数字高 于美国农业部9月供需报告中对美国2024/25年度玉米年末库存预估值13.25亿蒲式耳。 三、机构观点 国 ...

上一交易日（9月10日），玉米淀粉主力合约收跌0.99%至2488元/吨。山东玉米淀粉价格2780元/吨，持 平。 9月11日，大商所玉米淀粉期货仓单9950手，环比上个交易日增加544手。 分析观点： 西南期货研报：短期国内玉米供需趋向平衡，消费延续回暖，主产区陈粮销售收尾，港口库存快速回 归，库存压力减退，基差偏强。1-7月玉米进口锐减，进口毛利水平仍偏高，后续进口或有上量空间； 中储粮玉米网拍持续净销售，进口玉米持续轮出，新季玉米丰产预期渐强，成本或下修，玉米价格上方 或有一定压力，观望为主；玉米淀粉产需两弱，库存高位，或跟随玉米行情为主。 | 规格 | 品牌/产 | 报价 | 报价类 | 交货地 | 交易商 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 地 | | 型 | | | | 食品级含量99 | 国产 | 2850元/ | 出厂价 | 河南省/郑州 | 河南顺之邦环保科技有限 | | | | 吨 | | 市 | 公司VIP | | 食品级含量99 | 国产 | 2900元/ | 市场价 | 内蒙古 | 河南汇亿海环保科技有限 | | | | 吨 | | ...