Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The global corn supply pressure will weaken in the 26/27 season, and the price center of gravity will rise. The planting area of US corn is expected to decline, and the new - season yield may be lower. Brazilian corn production is stable, and exports are good. - In the domestic market, the corn supply in the 25/26 season is still tight, and the planting cost will rise in the 26/27 season. Feed demand will decline slightly, but the use of corn will remain high. Deep - processing profits will decline. The inventory of north - south ports will continue to rise. - In the future, the price of US corn will be higher than that of the previous year. Domestic corn prices will fall before the end of March due to the peak of farmers selling grain, but will rise in the medium - to - long term. The price of corn starch will be relatively strong, and the price difference between corn starch and corn may expand. [5][15][90] Summary by Directory 1. Preface and Overview - **Market Review**: In the 25/26 season, US corn was in bottom - range oscillation due to record - high production. Domestic corn prices rose in the first half of the year due to reduced imports and substitutes, fell in July considering new - season planting cost reduction and increased production, and rose counter - seasonally after mid - October due to low carry - over inventory and farmers' reluctance to sell. Corn starch was relatively weak, and the profit was lower than last year. [4] - **Market Outlook**: Internationally, the supply pressure of US corn will weaken in the 25/26 season, and the new - season price center of gravity in 26/27 will be higher. Domestically, the supply of corn after the Spring Festival is still tight, but the spot price will fall before the end of March due to farmers selling grain. The price of corn starch is expected to improve, and the price difference between corn starch and corn will likely expand. [5] - **Strategy Recommendation**: - Unilateral: Go long on the US corn 05 contract lightly around 430 cents per bushel, and go long on the 07 corn contract when the price is between 2220 - 2350. - Arbitrage: Expand the price difference between 05 corn and starch when it is between 280 - 370. - Options: Sell the corn put option (c2605 - P - 2220) when the market falls to a low point. [7] 2. Market Regression and International Corn Fundamentals - **Domestic and International Corn Market Review**: In 2025, the domestic corn spot market had three stages: continuous rise from January to June, decline from July to mid - October, and counter - seasonal rise from mid - October to mid - December. The futures market had small fluctuations, and the basis operation was difficult in the second half of the year. [8][13] - **Global Corn Supply Pressure Weakens, Center of Gravity Will Rise**: The 25/26 season had a loose corn supply due to increased yields in China and the US. However, in the 26/27 season, the uncertainty of weather may lead to a decrease in yield, and the global grain price center of gravity will rise. [15] - **US Corn Old - Crop Supply Is Loose, New - Season Yield Is Expected to Decline**: In the 25/26 season, the area and yield of US corn reached record highs, but the planting was still at a loss. The planting area in the 26/27 season is expected to decrease, and the yield may be lower than the previous year. The price center of gravity of US corn will be higher, and the 12 - contract has strong support at 400 cents per bushel. [22] - **Brazilian Corn Production Is Stable, Exports Are Good**: Brazilian corn production has been stable at around 130 million tons in recent years, and exports are also stable. As of December 13, the sowing rate of the first - crop corn was 77.5%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative export volume was 35.75 million tons. Brazilian corn is still the main import source when the domestic corn supply is tight. [28] 3. Domestic Corn Fundamental Analysis - **25/26 Season Corn Supply Is Still Tight, 26/27 Season Planting Cost Rises**: In the 25/26 season, the national corn production increased, but the carry - over inventory was low, and the supply was still tight. The import of corn and grains decreased significantly. In the 26/27 season, the new - season corn planting cost is expected to rise. [33][34] - **Feed Demand Declines Slightly, Corn Usage Remains High**: Due to losses in the breeding industry and high inventory, the feed demand will decline slightly after the year, but the demand for corn may still increase due to the low - level of substitute grains. The current feed demand still shows a slight increase, but the breeding industry is expected to reduce inventory in 2026. [39] - **Corn Is at a High Level, Deep - Processing Profits Will Decline**: In 2025, the deep - processing industry was in overall loss. In the first quarter of 2026, the operating rate is expected to decline, and the demand for corn will decrease slightly. The demand for corn starch may improve, but the deep - processing profit is lower than in previous years. The operating rate of the alcohol industry is also expected to decline. [59][71] - **North - South Port Inventory Will Continue to Rise**: Due to low carry - over inventory, low inventory in intermediate channels and downstream, and farmers' reluctance to sell, the north - south port corn inventory was at a historical low. Before the end of March, the inventory will continue to rise due to the peak of farmers selling grain. [77] - **Corn and Starch Trading Logic**: The focus of the market is on the selling rhythm of farmers before the end of March. After the peak of farmers selling grain, the medium - to - long - term corn price will rise. The price of corn starch will be relatively strong, and the price difference between corn starch and corn may expand. [82] 4. Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - **Corn**: The price of US corn in the 26/27 season will be higher than in the previous year. The domestic corn spot price will fall before the end of March and then rise. The price of North Port closing price is expected to fluctuate between 2200 - 2400, and the 07 futures contract will be relatively strong, fluctuating between 2220 - 2380. [90] - **Starch**: Corn starch will fluctuate narrowly with corn in the first quarter of 2026. After the second quarter, it will be relatively strong, and the price difference between corn starch and corn will expand. The 05 starch contract will rise in oscillation, and the price difference between 05 corn and starch is expected to fluctuate between 280 - 370. - **Trading Strategy**: - Unilateral: Go long on the US corn 05 contract lightly around 430 cents per bushel. Go long on the 07 corn contract when the price is between 2220 - 2350. - Arbitrage: The price difference between 05 corn and starch fluctuates between 280 - 370. - Options: Sell the c2605 - P - 2200 option after the market falls. [91][92][94]

Group 1 - December corn futures prices experienced a sharp rise and subsequent decline, with the C2601 contract breaking through the 2300 yuan/ton mark, attracting market attention [1] - The low inventory of old crop corn, combined with continuous rainfall during the harvest period in North China, led to a decline in grain quality, increasing urgency among downstream grain enterprises to stockpile [1] - The accelerated outflow of high-quality corn from Northeast China was noted as traders rushed to fulfill previously signed sales contracts, while farmers exhibited a reluctance to sell due to rising prices [1] Group 2 - The annual supply and demand balance sheet is a crucial reference for market participants, indicating a shift from a tight supply situation in the previous year to a slightly looser state for the 2025/2026 corn season [2] - The corn planting area is expected to remain stable, with a slight decrease in overall corn planting area due to some regions switching to soybean cultivation, while weather conditions this year have favored corn growth, leading to a significant increase in yield [2] - The total corn supply for the 2025/2026 season is projected to be approximately 29.517 million tons, an increase of 4.187 million tons or about 16% year-on-year [2] Group 3 - The ending inventory for the current year is estimated at around 15 million tons, indicating a shift from a tight supply situation to a slight surplus [3] - During the grain selling phase, corn prices are expected to primarily experience a downward trend due to increased production and faster selling rates by farmers, with December being a peak selling season [3] - The market may see price fluctuations during the trading phase as the remaining inventory decreases, but limited rebound potential is anticipated due to reduced feed consumption and prior stockpiling by feed enterprises [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for corn is "oscillating" [4] 2. Core Views of the Report - The willingness of channels to hold corn inventory may reach a cyclical inflection point. In the short - term, the counter - seasonal price increase in November 2025 was a correction after the channel inventory was compressed to the extreme. In the long - term, market sentiment and channel inventory demand may turn upward due to factors such as the profit - making effect of traders' inventory in 2024/2025, losses from short - selling in 2025Q4, and the lack of a basis for a unanimous bearish view on new crops in 2025/2026 [1] - Policy is likely to be the key variable in the 2025/2026 balance sheet. The policy has a large amount of grain available for auction, and import policies have a greater impact on imported grains than import profits. The amount of policy grain auctions in the first half of 2026 will affect the corn price center and the seasonal high in Q3 [1] - Under the neutral assumption, at the end of the 2025/2026 period, the negative inventory phenomenon of channels is expected to decrease significantly year - on - year. Corn may change from a net purchase of 5 million tons in the previous year to a net auction of 8 million tons. The auction volume of reserve wheat in the first half of 2026 is expected to be 15 million tons, but it is still insufficient to fully make up for the remaining gap in corn [2] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review: Similarities Year after Year - Since 2023, the corn price has been oscillating downward. The seasonal characteristics of corn prices in recent years have shown high consistency: prices decline during the farmers' concentrated selling season and rise after the inventory - building demand is released. There is a verification period for the balance sheet near the end of the corn market year [13] - In 2025, the price generally followed the above - mentioned seasonal pattern, but the performance after November was different. The price increased counter - seasonally in November, mainly due to the re - correction of the balance sheet and the correction of the over - decline in 2024Q3 [15][18] 3.2 History Does Not Simply Repeat Itself 3.2.1 Unchanged Aspects - The basic pattern that the corn gap can be easily filled is expected to remain unchanged in the next two years. The 2026 corn market is not expected to deviate significantly from the traditional seasonal framework of the past three years. Policy variables are likely to be the most critical factor in the 2025/2026 balance sheet [21] 3.2.2 New Variables - In 2025, the market was more cautious than ever, and the channel inventory compression reached an extreme. In the short - term, the counter - seasonal price increase in November 2025 was a correction after the channel inventory was compressed to the extreme. In the long - term, market sentiment and channel inventory demand may turn upward [25] 3.3 Supply in 2025/2026: Low Inventory Carry - over vs. New Crop Yield Increase 3.3.1 New Crop Yield Situation - The view on the new crop yield situation has changed little compared with the quarterly report in September. It is still a bumper harvest but with quality differentiation. The yield increase mainly comes from Northeast China, followed by Xinjiang, and the yield in North China is expected to be flat with a slight increase [28] 3.3.2 Inventory Carry - over - There is a contradiction between large - scale grain supply at the grass - roots level and tight downstream inventory, indicating that the carry - over inventory may be significantly lower than expected. The possible reason is that the non - existent in - transit inventory was mis - counted. It is estimated that the commercial inventory carry - over in 2024/2025 decreased by more than 10 million tons year - on - year [29][44][45] 3.3.3 No Significant Selling Pressure, Tighter Balance Sheet, and Possible Cyclical Reversal of Channel Inventory - The yield increase may not cover the decline in inventory, so the supply - demand gap of corn in 2025/2026 may not narrow year - on - year. There is expected to be no significant selling pressure in the short - term. The phenomenon of negative inventory of traders at the end of the 2025/2026 market year is expected to decrease significantly [51] 3.4 Demand in 2025/2026 3.4.1 Deep - processing - The demand for corn deep - processing is better than expected in September. The price of cassava starch has risen due to floods in Thailand, and the market share previously replaced by cassava is gradually being recovered. Although the terminal demand for deep - processing is still weak, the overall decline in the total demand for corn deep - processing this year is likely to be small [52][61] 3.4.2 Energy Feed - Pig feed demand is expected to increase cyclically year - on - year, but the increase may be limited by the decline in the feed - to - meat ratio. Poultry feed demand is expected to decrease cyclically year - on - year. Overall, the total energy demand is expected to be flat with a slight increase [62][73][76] 3.5 Policy Variables 3.5.1 Wheat Purchase and Auction - In 2025, the policy carried out a large amount of reserve purchases of wheat to achieve supply - demand balance. In 2026, the new wheat is expected to have an oversupply. The larger the wheat auction volume in the first half of 2026, the more the corn gap will be filled in advance, and the corn price center and the seasonal high in Q3 will decline [79][80] 3.5.2 Directed Rice - The possibility of a large - scale auction of directed rice in 2025/2026 is low, and even if the auction starts, the reserve price may be high [89] 3.5.3 Corn Regulatory Reserves - The imported corn reserves have a certain de - stocking pressure, and the auction volume is expected to be about 6 million tons in 2025/2026 under the neutral assumption. The domestic corn regulatory reserves have no de - stocking pressure and have room for further reserve increase [90] 3.5.4 Imported Grains - In recent years, imports have been more affected by policies. In the new year, the supply of overseas corn is expected to be sufficient, and the main influencing factor for imported grains is still expected to be policy. The import volume of corn is expected to increase year - on - year on a low - base, while the import volume of miscellaneous grains is expected to decline year - on - year [96][100][101] 3.6 Expectations for 2026/2027: Slight Yield Increase + Cost Increase - The corn planting area in 2026/2027 is expected to be flat with a slight increase. Under the neutral expectation, the yield per unit area is expected to be basically flat year - on - year. The Heilongjiang port collection cost is expected to increase year - on - year and may return to over 2,000 yuan/ton. The possibility of a unanimous bearish view on new crops is expected to decrease, and the willingness of traders to hold grain may increase year - on - year [113][119][120] 3.7 Balance Sheet 3.7.1 Wheat Balance Sheet Adjustment and Forecast - In the 2025/2026 wheat year, the feed demand increased year - on - year, and the policy carried out a large amount of reserve purchases. It is expected that the auction volume of reserve wheat in the first half of 2026 will be about 15 million tons, and most of it may flow into the feed market. Under the neutral expectation, wheat will have a restorative yield increase in 2026/2027 [125][126][127] 3.7.2 Corn and Energy Raw Material Balance Sheet Adjustment and Forecast - The carry - over inventory of corn in 2024/2025 is significantly revised downwards, and the domestic corn supply in the new year is expected to decrease by about 4 million tons year - on - year. The import volume of corn is expected to increase slightly year - on - year, and the total demand change is expected to be relatively small. Corn is expected to have a net auction of about 8 million tons in the new year. The ending commercial inventory of corn in 2025/2026 is expected to increase by about 9 million tons year - on - year [128][129][133] 3.8 Price Outlook and Investment Suggestions 3.8.1 Price Outlook - The absolute valuation of corn in 2025/2026 depends on the auction volume of policy grains and the increase in valuation due to the recovery of the channel's willingness to hold grain. Under the neutral assumption, the auction volume of reserve wheat in the first half of 2026 may not be sufficient to fully make up for the corn gap. The 07 and 09 contracts of corn may have a bottom support of 2,200 - 2,250 yuan/ton, and the high point of the futures price may be 2,300 - 2,350 yuan/ton. The price is expected to have a seasonal decline in the future, and there is still room for the price to strengthen after the decline in 2026Q1 under the neutral and optimistic assumptions [137][138][140] 3.8.2 Investment Suggestions - In the spread strategy, the logic of the channel's inventory - building demand is expected to drive the 3 - 7 and 3 - 9 contracts to show a reverse spread during the farmers' selling season. In the unilateral strategy, short - term opportunities to short the 03 and 05 contracts at high prices can be considered, and long - term opportunities to long the 07 and 09 contracts at low prices can be considered. It is recommended to make decisions based on driving factors [142]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the corn industry. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the 2025/26 crop year, the bottom of the corn price is expected to rise, and investors should focus on trading opportunities in price fluctuations. The domestic corn supply will increase due to the growth in both planting area and yield in 2025, while the demand is expected to decline. As a result, the supply - demand situation will be marginally looser, and the overall policy - related substitutes still have room, which restricts the upside of the corn price [2][81][82]. - Before the Spring Festival, the selling pressure on corn may not be significant. After the resolution of the temporary supply - demand mismatch, traders will enter the market to build inventories, and the price correction will be limited. Subsequently, the corn price may fall again due to traders' selling and policy auctions, but the overall price center is expected to move up. Additionally, the situation of the new - season corn should be monitored [2][82]. - In 2026, the corn price is expected to fluctuate between 2000 - 2450 yuan/ton, with a core range of 2100 - 2400 yuan/ton [3][83]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 2025 Corn Market Review - In 2025, the corn futures price fluctuated within a large range, and the spot price moved up compared to the beginning of the year. In the first half of the year, the price rose due to factors such as policy - driven stockpiling, tariff counter - measures, wheat drought, and tight supply - demand. After reaching a high, the price declined due to factors like imported corn auctions and high warehouse receipts. After the new grain was on the market, the price rebounded. The overall price center continued to move down compared to the previous year, and the futures were mainly in a negative basis situation, with a "strong expectation, weak reality" tone [6]. 3.2 International Grains: Loose Supply - Demand Remains Unchanged - **Global Grains**: In the 2025/26 crop year, the global grain supply - demand remains loose. The global grain planting area increased due to better planting profit compared to soybeans, with production rising by 3.2% year - on - year to 2.946 billion tons. Demand increased by 2.3% year - on - year to 2.947 billion tons, mainly from the feed and industrial sectors. The ending inventory is expected to be 769 million tons, a 0.16% year - on - year decrease [11]. - **International Corn**: - **USA**: In the 2025/26 crop year, the US corn production reached a record high due to the increase in both area and yield. The domestic demand and export demand increased. The supply - demand is in a loose pattern, but the price center is expected to move up due to strong export demand and the possible reduction in the 2026 planting area [12][15]. - **Brazil**: The Brazilian corn production is expected to decline. The planting area increased by 4%, but the yield per hectare decreased by 5.4% due to factors such as high - temperature drought and delayed soybean harvest affecting the second - season corn [17]. - **Ukraine**: The Ukrainian corn production increased, and the export is expected to recover. The production increased by 5.2 million tons year - on - year, and the export is expected to reach 24.5 million tons in the 2025/26 crop year [19]. 3.3 Domestic Corn - **Production Increase in 2025/26**: In 2025, the national corn planting area increased by 940,000 mu (0.15%) to 60.912 million mu. The yield increased due to favorable climate conditions and the promotion of planting techniques. The national corn output was 282.45 million tons, a 4.1% year - on - year increase [21][22]. - **Feed Demand Expected to Decline Slowly**: - **2025/26 Feed Demand Forecast**: The overall feed demand is expected to decline. For pigs, the inventory of sows is expected to decrease, driving the decline in commercial pig inventory after the second quarter of 2026. For poultry, the feed demand for meat - type poultry is expected to increase slightly, while that for egg - laying poultry is expected to decline [24][29][39]. - **Structural Demand for Corn**: The structural demand for corn in feed is expected to decline slightly. The substitution of corn in feed depends on cost - effectiveness and policy. Currently, the substitution of wheat for corn has decreased, and the overall substitution situation is uncertain [41][42]. - **Deep - processing Demand Expected to Increase Slightly**: The deep - processing demand for corn is expected to be relatively rigid, with consumption remaining flat or increasing slightly compared to the previous year. In 2024/25, the consumption of deep - processing enterprises decreased by 5%, mainly in the starch and alcohol industries. Currently, the consumption is showing signs of recovery [45]. - **Supply - Demand Balance: Annual Inventory Accumulation**: In the 2025/26 crop year, the domestic corn market is expected to accumulate inventory. Supply will increase due to higher production and possible import growth, while demand will decline, resulting in a marginally looser supply - demand pattern [52]. 3.4 Range - bound with a Rising Price Floor - **Limited Price Decline and Weak Selling Pressure Before the Spring Festival**: Since November 2025, the corn price has been rising against the season due to factors such as restocking demand, farmers' reluctance to sell, and logistics bottlenecks. The outflow of corn from Northeast China is expected to decrease in the future, the downstream restocking enthusiasm will weaken, and the port inventory will gradually accumulate. After the resolution of the supply - demand mismatch, traders will build inventories, and the selling pressure on farmers may not be significant, with limited price correction [53][55][56]. - **After Grain Sales: Focus on Traders' Selling, Substitutes, and New - season Corn Planting**: - **Domestic Policy Substitutes - Wheat Substitution Limited**: The wheat - corn price spread is currently high, and the substitution volume is expected to remain stable or decrease slightly. The probability of a large - scale substitution of wheat for corn before the first quarter of 2026 is low. Attention should be paid to the new - season wheat production and the possible auction of overdue wheat [68][69]. - **Domestic Policy Substitutes - Possible Rice Auction**: There is still a surplus of brown rice, and attention should be paid to the policy regarding its release time, quantity, and base price [71]. - **Imported Grains May Increase Marginally**: The import of corn is expected to increase slightly, mainly depending on policy and import profit. The import of sorghum and barley is expected to decrease, and attention should be paid to cost - effectiveness and import policies [73][75]. - **Traders' Selling and New - season Corn**: After the Spring Festival, the corn price may fall due to traders' selling and the influence of substitutes. The planting cost of new - season corn may increase, and the price may rise in the third quarter due to inventory reduction and restocking demand [80].

Core Viewpoint - The corn futures market is experiencing a slight upward trend, with a weekly increase of 0.60% in prices, while supply pressures are gradually easing due to consumption of existing stocks [1][2][3] Market Performance - As of November 21, 2025, the main corn futures contract closed at 2195 CNY/ton, with a weekly trading range between 2162 CNY/ton and 2205 CNY/ton, and an increase in open interest by 2138 contracts compared to the previous week [1] - The weekly opening price was 2188 CNY/ton, indicating a stable trading environment [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - The USDA reported net corn export sales for the 2025/2026 marketing year at 2.2597 million tons, a significant increase from the previous week's 1.3948 million tons [2] - National corn inventory among 96 major processing enterprises was recorded at 2.727 million tons, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.29% [2] - The corn prices in the Bayuquan Port region for new corn with 15% moisture content ranged from 2170 to 2175 CNY/ton, showing a decrease of 10 CNY/ton from the previous day [2] Institutional Insights - Nanhua Futures noted that while supply pressures are easing, the fourth quarter's supply capacity remains sufficient, and the market is observing the selling sentiment among farmers [3] - Dongwu Futures highlighted that feed enterprises are experiencing low inventory levels, which, combined with strong demand from downstream sectors, is leading to a tightening supply situation and a rebound in spot prices [3] - The overall grain selling progress is at 22%, which is faster than the same period last year, indicating a robust selling pace [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - This year, China's corn production is expected to reach 300 million tons for the first time in history. With the harvest almost complete, the supply - demand structure is gradually moving towards balance. In the long - term, there is a tight supply expectation under mild production increase pressure, weakening import pressure, and stable demand [1]. - In the short - term, the corn market has shown a strong performance due to reduced supply and downstream price - raising purchases. However, the price may face intermittent pressure as the selling peak at the end of the year tests its resilience [1]. - The corn starch market has also run strongly this week, supported by rising raw material prices, good order shipments, and tight local supply [1]. - The CBOT corn futures rose more than 1% this week, but the bearish November supply - demand data led to a sharp decline on Friday, erasing most of the gains from Monday to Thursday [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - **Near - term trading logic**: In the Northeast, state reserve purchases support the market, and in North China, the reluctance to sell has reduced short - term supply. The downstream's price - raising purchases have supported the weekly strength of the corn market. China's corn production increase is certain, and the market is still digesting the price pressure from the production increase. The corn price is mainly oscillating at the bottom [7]. - **Long - term trading expectations**: China's corn supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. With a sharp reduction in corn and substitute grain imports and a possible decrease in high - quality corn production in North China, the medium - term supply - demand structure may tighten. The price is likely to form an important bottom in the fourth - quarter supply peak, and buyers should pay attention to the participation opportunities at the price bottom [7]. 3.1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Trend judgment**: The sign of the end of the pull - back is more obvious, and the probability of finding the bottom continues to increase. Technically, the 01 contract is supported at the 2100 - yuan mark and rebounds along the 5 - day moving average [8]. - **Strategy suggestions**: Mid - and downstream enterprises should be aware of the risk of rising long - term procurement costs. Grain - holding entities with low - cost inventory can consider partial inventory hedging at high prices to avoid pull - back risks [8]. - **Basis, monthly spread, and hedging arbitrage strategies**: - **Basis strategy**: The spot and futures prices are moving in sync, with a weaker increase in the production area. The port basis fluctuates narrowly, and no strategy is recommended [8]. - **Monthly spread strategy**: The decrease in spot supply has led the near - month 01 contract to perform strongly, narrowing the spread between near - and far - month contracts. The "sell near, buy far" strategy is temporarily withdrawn for observation [8]. - **Hedging arbitrage strategy**: Due to the fundamentals of soybeans and corn, it is not suitable for inter - variety arbitrage. The wheat - corn spread has narrowed but is still outside the substitution range. The starch - corn spread has little change, and the "buy starch, sell corn" arbitrage is not recommended for now. The pig - grain ratio's rebound space is uncertain, and arbitrage is on hold [11][12]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Suggestions - **Price range forecast**: The predicted monthly price range for corn is 2050 - 2200 yuan, with a current volatility of 8.25% and a volatility percentile of 38.4%. For starch, it is 2350 - 2550 yuan, with a volatility of 7.81% and a volatility percentile of 15.39% [18]. - **Risk strategies for the fourth quarter**: Different strategies are recommended for inventory management and procurement management, including shorting corn futures, selling call options, selling put options, and buying far - month contracts, with corresponding scenarios, hedging tools, trading directions, and suggested entry intervals [18]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Key Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive information**: State reserve purchases continue to support the market, the early sales progress is fast, and farmers' reluctance to sell has reduced the effective circulating grain sources. Terminal enterprises have to raise prices to increase arrivals [19]. - **Negative information**: The increase in U.S. corn supply pressure due to the bearish USDA supply - demand report, and the possible increase in selling pressure after the price rises [20]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Key Events - Monitor whether the price increase stimulates an increase in selling pressure [20]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Domestic market**: The corn futures market has continued to strengthen this week. The main 01 contract rose 1.68% to 2185 yuan/ton, with a decrease in open interest, a slight increase in trading volume, and an increase in registered positions. The starch market has also strengthened in sync with corn, with a similar increase rate [20][21]. - **International market**: The CBOT corn futures rose more than 1% this week but fell sharply on Friday due to bearish supply - demand data, and the rebound trend has weakened [53]. 3.3.2 Basis, Monthly Spread, and Starch - Corn Spread - **Basis structure**: After the new season started, the basis between the mainstream price at Jinzhou Port and the main contract is in a reasonable range, with little change. However, the basis in the production areas has weakened [25]. - **Monthly spread structure**: The spread between near - and far - month corn contracts has weakened this week, and the term structure has flattened. The starch basis in the main production areas has also weakened [35]. - **Starch - corn spread**: The spread has fluctuated slightly this week, and the "buy starch, sell corn" arbitrage is not recommended for now [49]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Industry Chain Profit Tracking - **Planting profit**: It is better than last year, especially in the Northeast production area [57]. - **Trading profit**: The stable and strengthening corn price is conducive to trading enterprises' purchasing and sales activities, and the inventory profit is improving [57]. - **Deep - processing profit**: The profit from corn - to - starch has slightly declined due to the rebound in corn prices and limited follow - up of starch spot prices. The profit from the corn - to - ethanol industry has continued to decline [57]. - **Disk profit**: The basis at Jinzhou Port is neutral, and the disk profit is not obvious. There is hedging profit for far - month contracts, but considering the bottom of the spot price, it is not advisable to enter the market for hedging [57]. 3.4.2 Import - Export Profit Tracking The import profit of corn has increased as the domestic price has risen more strongly than the international price [59]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Projection 3.5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projection - **China's corn**: The supply - demand balance sheet shows changes in planting area, production, import, consumption, and inventory in different years. The annual surplus is expected to be 3.55 million tons in 2025/26 [63]. - **Global corn**: The world's corn supply - demand balance sheet shows changes in beginning inventory, production, import, consumption, export, and ending inventory in different years. The stock - to - use ratio is expected to be 21.97% in 2025/26 [64]. 3.5.2 Supply - Side and Projection - **Domestic supply**: In November, the corn supply is gradually decreasing from the peak. The selling pressure will be reduced as the temperature drops in the Northeast. The proportion of high - quality corn in North China has decreased due to rainfall. Although the overall supply is still high, there may be a shortage of high - quality corn [65]. - **Import**: From January to September 2025, China's cumulative import of corn and corn flour was 930,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 92.7%. In September, the import was 60,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 81.9%. It is expected that the import volume will remain low in the fourth quarter [65]. - **Inventory**: The port corn inventory has not increased significantly, and the overall inventory is still at a low level, providing space for future corn purchasing and sales [67]. - **Foreign corn**: The U.S. corn harvest is nearing completion, and the supply pressure is high. The bearish USDA supply - demand report on the 14th has increased the supply pressure [69]. 3.5.3 Demand - Side and Projection - **Consumption**: The operating rates of major products have continued to rise. The feed demand is supported by the peak slaughter season and secondary fattening, and the overall demand in the fourth quarter remains good [71]. - **Feed demand**: It is expected to remain at a high level in the fourth quarter. The feed production is high, and the feed enterprise inventory has rebounded but is still at a low level. The pig - raising profit has changed little this week, and the reduction of pig production capacity may affect the corn feed demand in 2026 [71]. - **Deep - processing demand**: The fourth quarter is the traditional peak season for corn deep - processing products. The low - price corn has attracted downstream enterprises to increase their operating rates, driving up corn consumption. However, the growth trend has slowed down due to rising raw material prices and insufficient price increases for terminal products [74].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Corn Monthly Report [1] - Date: November 03, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Lin Zhenlei, Yu Lanlan, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3][4] - Core Viewpoint: Substitution decreases and cost provides support. Pay attention to the grain selling rhythm and replenish stocks in a timely manner [5] Group 2: Report Core Viewpoints Supply - side - New - crop corn has increased production, and the combined port cost has moved down to around 2,100 yuan/ton. In November, the supply of new corn in Northeast and North China will continue to increase, and port inventories are stabilizing and rising [8]. - With the listing of new corn and the rise in wheat prices, wheat no longer has a feed substitution advantage over corn, and the substitution volume is gradually decreasing. The auction of imported corn has stopped, and the price advantage of alternative imported grains has weakened. Future imports may remain at a low level [8]. Demand - side - The continuous growth of pig inventory drives the feed demand to improve, but the breeding sector is in a loss, the willingness to build corn inventories is low, and spot purchases are not active. Feed enterprises mainly replenish stocks as needed, and their inventories may stabilize and slightly increase [8]. - Deep - processing enterprises have turned losses into profits, the operating rate has rebounded, enterprise inventories have slightly increased, and procurement enthusiasm has increased [8]. Price Trend - Spot prices may fluctuate around the cost price, mainly affected by the grain selling progress and the downstream inventory - building willingness. The supply - demand situation remains loose in November [8]. - For futures, the 2601 contract is still in the peak period of new grain sales, with large supply pressure. However, it is supported by planting costs and the decrease in substitutes. Contracts after 2605 are also supported by the minimum purchase price of wheat [8]. Strategies - Spot enterprises: Mainly replenish stocks appropriately [8]. - Futures investors: Consider lightly entering long positions and set stop - losses [8]. Important Variables - Purchase and storage policies, tariff policies, geopolitical situations, and weather [8] Group 3: Market Review Spot Market - In October, new grain continued to be listed, and corn prices declined seasonally. In Northeast China, prices initially decreased due to large supplies and then increased in the middle of the month. In North China, prices declined due to rainy weather and then rebounded at the end of the month. In the sales areas, prices followed the decline in the production areas [10]. - As of October 31, the reference price of corn in Harbin was 2,010 yuan/ton, and the second - grade corn in Changchun, Jilin was 2,070 yuan/ton. The price of deep - processed corn in Shouguang, Shandong was 2,136 yuan/ton, a decrease of 154 yuan/ton from the previous month. The purchase price of new grain in Jinzhou Port was 2,070 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price of second - grade Northeast corn in Shekou Port, Guangdong was 2,230 yuan/ton, a decrease of 230 yuan/ton month - on - month [10]. Futures Market - As of October 31, the main contract 2601 of Dalian corn futures closed at 2,130 yuan/ton, unchanged from the end of the previous month [11] Group 4: Fundamental Analysis Corn Supply - By the end of October, the autumn grain harvest was nearly completed, and winter wheat sowing progress varied by region [14]. - As of October 24, the total corn inventory in the four northern ports was 1.08 million tons, an increase of 180,000 tons month - on - month and a decrease of 720,000 tons year - on - year. The total corn inventory in southern ports was 607,000 tons, an increase of 157,000 tons from September and an increase of 404,000 tons year - on - year [14]. Domestic Substitutes (Wheat) - As of October 31, the national average corn price was 2,203 yuan/ton, and the average wheat price was 2,510 yuan/ton, with a price difference of 307 yuan/ton [16]. - In October, wheat prices rose widely. Supply was tight in the early stage due to reduced circulation and transportation difficulties, and then the supply - demand situation eased [16]. Imported Substitute Grains - In September 2025, China's grain imports were 15.83 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.3% and a year - on - year increase of 12.5%. From January to September, the cumulative grain imports were 106.73 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.1% [20]. - The import volume of various grains showed different trends in September. The future import volume of substitute grains may remain low due to quota restrictions and the listing of domestic new - crop corn [20][33]. Feed Demand - In September 2025, the national industrial feed output was 30.36 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.4% and a year - on - year increase of 5.0% [35]. - The theoretical pig slaughter volume shows different trends according to different data sources. Overall, feed production is expected to continue to increase slightly [37]. - As of October 30, the average inventory days of sample feed enterprises were 24.10 days, a month - on - month decrease of 7.34% and a year - on - year decrease of 13.74% [38]. Deep - processing Demand - In October, the raw material corn price decreased, the starch industry's operating rate increased, and the output increased. The consumption of corn by deep - processing enterprises also increased [40]. - The processing profit of starch enterprises has been repaired. The inventory of deep - processing enterprises first decreased and then increased in October [40][41]. Supply - demand Balance Sheet - The 2025/26 production and consumption forecasts of Chinese corn remain the same as last month, with imports reduced by 1 million tons to 6 million tons [47]. - The planting area of corn is expected to increase by 0.3%, and the total output is expected to increase by 0.4%. The consumption is expected to be basically the same as the previous year [47]. Group 5: Future Outlook Supply - side - New - crop corn has increased production, and the supply will continue to increase in November. Port inventories are stabilizing and rising [49]. - The substitution volume of wheat and imported substitute grains will decrease, and future imports may remain at a low level [49]. Demand - side - Feed enterprises' inventory - building willingness is low, mainly replenishing stocks as needed. Deep - processing enterprises' procurement enthusiasm has increased [49]. Price and Strategy - Spot prices may fluctuate around the cost price. Futures prices are supported by costs and substitution factors [49]. - Spot enterprises should replenish stocks appropriately, and futures investors can consider lightly entering long positions [49]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall corn price this week was first strong and then weak. The pressure of new grain listing in the spot market still dominates the market rhythm. The corn market may enter a second - decline phase to confirm the low point under the accumulated selling pressure. The starch market was relatively strong this week, with the price showing signs of strengthening, the industry's operating rate rising, and the inventory level falling but still remaining high. The CBOT corn futures closed slightly higher this week, and the U.S. federal government shutdown led to a lack of key data guidance [1][7]. - In the short - term trading logic, the short - term disturbance of rainfall in the North China and Huanghuai regions to the new grain listing has gradually dissipated. The supply is abundant, and the price is under pressure. The increase in the number of state - owned grain reserve purchase points restricts the weakening of prices in the Northeast region. The secondary fattening of pigs may support the relatively high level of corn feed demand in the fourth quarter. In the long - term trading expectation, the supply - demand contradiction in the domestic corn market is relatively mild. The price is likely to form an important bottom in the fourth quarter, and buyers should pay attention to the opportunity. In 2026, the corn feed demand may be negatively affected, while the deep - processing demand is stable and will support the price after the peak of grain sales [7]. - The trend of the corn market is in the later stage of the downward trend, with a back - step to confirm the bottom. The 01 contract tests the support at the 2100 - yuan mark. It is recommended to short on rebounds in the futures market, but when it enters the 2050 - 2100 - yuan range, it is advisable to close short positions and wait and see. For options, a selling strategy based on the 2050 - 2230 - yuan range can be considered [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - **Market Situation**: The national autumn grain harvest is over 80%. The corn price is first strong and then weak, and the starch market is strong. The CBOT corn futures close slightly higher [1]. - **Trading Logic**: In the short - term, the supply pressure is large, and the price is under pressure. In the long - term, the price may form a bottom in the fourth quarter, and the 2026 corn feed demand may be affected [7]. 3.1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: The market is in the later stage of the downward trend, testing the 2100 - yuan support. It is recommended to short on rebounds in the futures market and consider selling options based on the 2050 - 2230 - yuan range [7]. - **Basis, Spread, and Arbitrage Strategies**: The basis has narrow - range fluctuations with no recommended strategies. The futures market shows a near - weak and far - strong structure, and the 1 - 5 spread of corn reaches a new low. For the spread strategy, focus on the long - starch and short - corn arbitrage as the starch - corn spread expands to over 300 yuan [9][11]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price Forecast**: The price range of corn is predicted to be 2050 - 2200 yuan, with a current volatility of 8.64% and a volatility percentile of 23.6% [17]. - **Risk Strategies**: Different strategies are recommended for inventory management and procurement management, such as shorting corn futures, selling call options, selling put options, and buying far - month contracts [19]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Time 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: Multiple entities, including CGS, start the new - season corn bidding and procurement, and the Trump administration plans to provide new - round aid funds to farmers [19]. - **Negative Information**: Brazil's corn export volume in October 2025 is expected to be 657 tons, and the grain - producing areas are in the peak of listing [20]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events - Pay attention to the price trend of corn due to increased spot pressure, the situation of the U.S. government shutdown and the resumption of the U.S. Department of Agriculture's functions, and the results of Sino - U.S. trade negotiations [20]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Interpretation - **Domestic Market**: Corn contracts are first strong and then weak, with the main 01 contract rising 0.76% this week. The corn starch main 01 contract rises nearly 2.4%. The trading volume and open interest of both increase [20]. - **International Market**: The CBOT corn futures close slightly higher, and the domestic demand and export expectations support the price [53]. - **Domestic - International Spread**: The spread between the domestic and U.S. corn changes slightly, and the U.S. corn price is slightly weaker than the domestic 01 contract [57]. 3.3.2 Basis and Spread Structure - **Basis Structure**: The basis changes little after the spot market switches to new - season pricing, and the difference in Jinzhou Port converges significantly [26]. - **Spread Structure**: The futures market shows a near - weak and far - strong structure, and the 1 - 5 spread of corn is at a high level in the same period [34]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Industrial Chain Profit Tracking - **Planting Profit**: The planting profit shows a slight recovery, but the overall situation is not optimistic due to the peak of grain listing [59]. - **Trading Profit**: The trading profit declines to a small - profit range as the new grain arrives at the port [59]. - **Deep - processing Profit**: The profit of corn starch continues to recover, while the profit of the corn - to - ethanol industry declines [59]. - **Disk Profit**: There is no profit on the disk, and the far - month contracts have hedging profit, but it is not advisable to enter the market for hedging [59]. 3.4.2 Import - Export Profit Tracking The import profit of corn decreases due to the rise in the international market and the weakness in the domestic market [61]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - **China**: The supply and demand of corn are basically balanced, with a slight surplus in some years [65]. - **Global**: The supply - demand relationship is relatively stable, but the inventory - to - consumption ratio shows a downward trend [66]. 3.5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - **Domestic**: The domestic corn harvest is nearing completion, and the selling pressure will last until November. The import volume is expected to remain at a low level in the fourth quarter. The inventory in the northern ports is rising, while that in the southern ports is falling [67][68][71]. - **Foreign**: The U.S. corn harvest progress continues, and its impact on China is limited [70]. 3.5.3 Demand - Side and Deduction - **Feed Demand**: The feed demand is expected to remain at a high level in the fourth quarter, but it may be affected in 2026 [73]. - **Deep - processing Demand**: The deep - processing demand is in a good range and will support the price after the peak of grain sales [78].

Market Review - On September 26, corn futures continued to fluctuate, with the main contract slightly rising by 0.37% to 2184.00 CNY/ton [1] Fundamental Summary - As of September 26, the Dalian Commodity Exchange reported 21,814 corn futures warehouse receipts, unchanged from the previous trading day [2] - Seasonal reduction in corn inventory among feed enterprises continues, with an average inventory of 26.01 days as of September 25, down 0.15 days week-on-week, a decrease of 0.57% compared to the previous week, and a year-on-year decline of 6.94% [2] - The USDA is set to release its quarterly grain inventory report on October 1, with an average forecast for U.S. corn inventory as of September 1 at 1.337 billion bushels, the lowest in four years, down 24% year-on-year. This figure is higher than the USDA's September supply and demand report estimate of 1.325 billion bushels for the 2024/25 corn ending stocks [2] Institutional Perspectives - Guosen Futures indicates that despite a shortage of old grain, the upcoming large harvest of new corn will lead to a gradual easing of supply. Demand is weakening due to rapidly declining prices of live pigs and piglets, worsening breeding profits, and ongoing industry capacity reduction policies. Consequently, feed consumption is expected to weaken, and the inventory depletion of deep processing enterprises is slow, with low operating rates. Although feed and deep processing enterprises have low raw material inventories, the overall weak downstream demand and the imminent large harvest of new grain will result in insufficient short-term replenishment motivation. Therefore, corn prices are expected to remain weak and fluctuate [3] - Southwest Futures notes that short-term domestic corn supply and demand are tending towards balance, with consumption continuing to recover. Old grain is relatively tight, and port inventories are quickly returning, reducing inventory pressure and strengthening basis. From January to August, corn imports sharply decreased, and import profit margins remain high, indicating potential for increased imports. The China Grain Reserves Corporation continues to sell corn through online auctions, and imported corn is being released. As northern main production areas begin harvesting, expectations for a bumper crop are strong, which may lead to cost reductions and upward pressure on corn prices, suggesting a cautious approach [3]

Core Viewpoint - The corn starch market is experiencing fluctuations in prices and inventory levels, with recent data indicating a slight decrease in prices and a notable change in inventory dynamics [1][3][4]. Price Summary - On September 10, the main corn starch futures contract closed at 2488 yuan/ton, down by 0.99% [1]. - As of September 21, various corn starch prices across different regions and specifications range from 2550 yuan/ton to 3000 yuan/ton, with notable prices including 2780 yuan/ton in Shandong and 2850-2900 yuan/ton in Henan and Inner Mongolia [2]. Inventory and Supply Dynamics - As of September 3, the total inventory of corn starch across the country was 1.265 million tons, reflecting a decrease of 53,000 tons week-on-week, which is a 4.02% drop [3]. - Year-on-year, the inventory has increased by 37.2% [3]. - On September 11, the Dalian Commodity Exchange reported 9,950 corn starch futures warehouse receipts, an increase of 544 receipts from the previous trading day [3]. Market Analysis - According to Southwest Futures, the domestic corn supply and demand are trending towards balance, with consumption showing signs of recovery [4]. - The sales of old grain in major production areas are nearing completion, leading to a rapid return of port inventories and a reduction in inventory pressure [4]. - The report indicates that corn imports have sharply decreased from January to July, with high import profit margins suggesting potential for increased imports in the future [4]. - The expectation of a strong new season corn yield may lead to cost adjustments and potential pressure on corn prices [4]. - The corn starch market is characterized by weak production and demand, with high inventory levels likely following the trends of corn prices [4].