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玉米淀粉日报-20250903
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-09-03 13:51
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The US corn continues to rebound, and there may be a downward adjustment of the US corn yield per unit later, indicating potential for further rebound. China has reinstated a 15% tariff on US corn, with a total of 26% tariff within the quota, and a 22% tariff on US sorghum. The import profit of foreign corn is relatively high, with the import price from Brazil in December at 2,140 yuan. The domestic corn spot market is expected to decline with the upcoming large - scale listing of new - season corn, and the 01 corn futures may also fall. The starch market is mainly influenced by corn prices and downstream inventory. With weak long - term demand, starch enterprises will be in a long - term loss state, and the 01 starch futures are expected to decline in the short term [5][7][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data - **Futures Market**: On September 3, 2025, most corn and corn starch futures contracts showed price declines. For example, C2601 closed at 2,182, down 1 (-0.05%); CS2601 closed at 2,520, down 15 (-0.60%). The trading volume of most contracts decreased, while the open interest of some contracts increased. For instance, the trading volume of C2601 decreased by 39.78%, and the open interest of CS2601 increased by 13.13% [3]. - **Spot and Basis**: Corn spot prices in Qinggang increased by 10 yuan to 2,145 yuan, while prices in other regions remained stable. Starch spot prices in all listed regions remained unchanged. The basis of corn and starch in different regions varied, with corn basis ranging from - 114 to 203 yuan and starch basis from 203 to 393 yuan [3]. - **Spreads**: In the corn market, C01 - C05 spread was - 63, up 3; in the starch market, CS01 - CS05 spread was - 77, down 3. The cross - variety spreads such as CS09 - C09 was 215, up 3 [3]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **Corn**: The US corn market has upward potential. In the domestic market, the northern port flat - hatch prices are stable, while the northeast corn spot is weak. The supply in North China has increased, and the corn price is stable. The wheat price in North China is weak, and wheat continues to substitute for corn. The domestic breeding demand is weak, and the downstream feed enterprises have high inventory. With the upcoming large - scale listing of new - season corn, the corn spot price is expected to decline. It is predicted that by the end of September, the corn price in North China may reach 2,200 yuan/ton, and in Heilongjiang, it may be around 2,100 yuan/ton [5][7]. - **Starch**: The number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants is stable, and the corn price in Shandong is stable. The starch price in Shandong is around 2,800 yuan, and the northeast starch spot is weak. This week, the corn starch inventory decreased to 126.5 million tons, a decrease of 5.3 million tons from last week, with a monthly decline of 4.2% and a year - on - year increase of 37.2%. The starch price is mainly affected by corn prices and downstream inventory. In the long - term, due to weak demand, enterprises will be in a loss state. The 01 starch futures are expected to decline in the short term [8]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: The US corn has support at 400 cents per bushel. It is recommended to mainly observe the 01 corn [10]. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to observe [11]. 3.4 Corn Options - For enterprises with spot, it is recommended to close out short positions of corn call options. Short - term traders can try to sell on rallies and conduct rolling operations [14].
玉米淀粉日报-20250821
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-08-21 13:27
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US corn is oscillating at the bottom, with limited downside space due to potential future cuts in the US corn yield per unit. China has imposed a 15% tariff on US corn and a 22% tariff on US sorghum, but the import profit of foreign corn remains high. The domestic corn spot is relatively stable in the short - term, but weak in the near future due to imports and domestic corn auctions. The starch price is mainly determined by corn price and downstream stocking, and the starch market is expected to be weak in the medium - to - long - term [5][6][7] - The trading strategy suggests that the domestic 09 corn will continue to oscillate narrowly, and 01 corn can be observed or a light - position short - term long can be taken around 2150. An arbitrage strategy is to buy 11 starch and sell 11 corn [8][9][10] - For the corn option, enterprises with spot can close out the short position of corn call options, or short - term traders can try to sell at high points and roll operations [11] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part 1: Data Futures Disk - The closing prices of C2601, C2605, C2509, CS2601, CS2605, and CS2509 are 2165, 2241, 2208, 2513, 2595, and 2574 respectively, with corresponding price drops of - 4, - 3, - 18, - 9, - 7, - 3 and percentage drops of - 0.18%, - 0.13%, - 0.82%, - 0.36%, - 0.27%, - 0.12%. The trading volume and open interest of each contract also show different degrees of increase or decrease [3] Spot and Basis - Corn spot prices in different regions have different changes, with prices in Qinggang, Jiajishenghua, Zhuchengxingmao, Shouguang, Jinzhou Port, Nantong Port, and Guangdong Port at 2210, 2220, 2490, 2460, 2290, 2400, 2400 respectively, with some prices dropping. The basis of corn and starch in different regions is also provided [3] Spread - Different spreads such as corn inter - delivery, starch inter - delivery, and cross - variety spreads are presented, along with their price changes [3] Part 2: Market Judgment Corn - The US corn is at the bottom, and the import profit of foreign corn is high. The northern port closing price has dropped, the northeast corn is stable, the supply in North China is increasing, and the spot is weak. The domestic breeding demand is weak, and the downstream feed enterprise inventory is high. The corn spot is expected to be stable in the short - term but may decline due to imports and auctions [5][6] Starch - The number of vehicles arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants has increased, the Shandong corn spot is weak, and the starch inventory has increased. The starch price depends on corn price and downstream stocking, and the starch market is expected to be weak in the medium - to - long - term [7] Part 3: Corn Options - Option strategies include enterprises with spot closing out short positions of corn call options, or short - term traders trying to sell at high points and roll operations, along with data on option contracts [11][13] Part 4: Relevant Attachments - There are six figures showing various price trends and spreads of corn and corn starch, including spot prices, basis, and inter - delivery spreads [15][17][22]
玉米淀粉日报-20250624
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-06-24 13:00
大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 玉米淀粉日报 2025 年 6 月 24 日 第一部分 数据 | 玉米&玉米淀粉数据日报 | | | | | | | | 2025/6/24 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | | 期货 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减幅 | 持仓量 | 增减幅 | | C2601 | | 2291 | 2 | 0.09% | 24,184 | 73.19% | 106,578 | 6.82% | | C2505 | | 2317 | -2 | -0.09% | 3,148 | 13.28% | 13,234 | 13.47% | | C2509 | | 2408 | -1 | -0.04% | 495,033 | 32.83% | 994,996 | 3.72% | | CS2601 | | 2679 | -18 | -0.67% | 1,012 | 16.59% | 4,514 | -4.75% | | CS2505 | | 2698 ...
玉米淀粉日报-20250618
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-06-18 13:50
大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 玉米淀粉日报 2025 年 6 月 18 日 第一部分 数据 2025/6/18 收盘价 涨跌 涨跌幅 成交量 增减幅 持仓量 增减幅 2284 -2 -0.09% 24,632 49.23% 93,064 1.87% 2325 11 0.47% 2,039 38.14% 9,479 10.16% 2397 -2 -0.08% 472,636 85.94% 837,782 7.84% 2692 1 0.04% 1,370 56.21% 4,624 4.54% 2708 5 0.18% 14 64.29% 150 3.45% 2778 0 0.00% 73,119 98.70% 87,940 7.97% 青冈 嘉吉生化 诸城兴贸 寿光 锦州港 南通港 广东港口 2240 2090 2530 2460 2380 2500 2470 0 0 10 0 0 0 10 -157 -307 133 63 -17 103 73 龙凤 中粮 嘉吉 玉峰 金玉米 诸城兴贸 恒仁工贸 2780 2750 2850 2980 2950 2980 2920 30 0 30 0 0 0 -20 72 4 ...
玉米淀粉日报-20250612
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-06-12 10:50
大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 玉米淀粉日报 2025 年 6 月 12 日 玉米淀粉日报 第一部分 数据 | 玉米&玉米淀粉数据日报 | | | | | | | | 2025/6/12 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | | 期货 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减幅 | 持仓量 | 增减幅 | | C2601 | | 2266 | -3 | -0.13% | 21,146 | -34.89% | 86,071 | 1.89% | | C2505 | | 2299 | 1 | 0.04% | 1,524 | -31.90% | 7,063 | 11.19% | | C2509 | | 2396 | 0 | 0.00% | 253,928 | -31.67% | 672,748 | 1.55% | | CS2601 | | 2673 | 0 | 0.00% | 743 | -12.49% | 4,558 | 0.33% | | CS2505 | | 2685 ...