2025年玉米期货价格呈现"涨—跌—涨"的波段走势。上半年，在中储粮增储与 进口谷物减少的共同支撑下，玉米期价震荡上行；随后进口玉米周度拍卖启动，供应 收紧的预期被打破，叠加新季产量前景乐观与下游需求疲软，价格承压回落。进入收 获期后，华北地区持续降雨影响了玉米质量，打乱了此前乐观的产量预期。与此同时 ，中下游环节库存整体偏低，引发阶段性集中采购，推动期价自低位反弹回升。展望 2026年，玉米期价预期冲高回落，关键点在于陈粮的投放节奏与时间以及总量确认预 期差。受今年华北玉米质量普遍偏差的影响，中下游企业补库与囤粮意愿有所增强， 导致整体供应压力向后推迟。因此，陈粮何时投放、以何种节奏进入市场，将成为影 响后续压力的核心变量，总量确认预期差，将是这些囤粮关键摇摆因素。其他影响因 素方面，美玉米出口表现强劲，叠加下一年度种植面积预计收缩，可能推动CBOT玉 米价格逐步筑底回升，进而对国内玉米市场带来情绪上的支撑。消费端预计仍处于缓 慢去产能的博弈阶段，难以形成强力拉动。而下一年度国内玉米产量目前初步预计保 持稳定，对价格的影响相对温和，不过天气不确定性使得驱动不明朗。玉米2601合约 预期波动区间2200-23 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12.12」 玉米类市场周报 政策性拍卖发酵 玉米期价高位回落 研究员：许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0017638 取 更 多 资 讯 联系电话：0595-86778969 关 注 我 们 获 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 「 周度要点小结」 总结及策略建议 3 Ø 玉米： Ø 行情回顾：本周玉米期货高位回落。主力2601合约收盘价为2233元/吨，较上周-34元/吨。 Ø 行情展望：美玉米收割步入出口旺季，阶段性供应压力较高。且全球及美玉米供需仍然相对宽松， 压制国际玉米市场价格。不过，USDA将2025/26年度美玉米结转库存预测值从上月的21.54亿蒲 式耳下调至20.29亿蒲式耳，低于分析师预期的21.24亿蒲式耳，对美玉米价格有所支撑。国内方 面，东北产区进入12月储备库的收购力度加大，收储库点持续增多，轮换玉米的采购量也在增加， 部分粮库提高收购价，对市场底部构成支撑。不过，阶段性高价限制了用粮企业采购积极性，加 之受小麦及储备玉米调节储备投放传闻影响，种植户与贸易主体恐高心理陆续显现，开始释放粮 源，随市场供给增加价格出现高位回 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Corn futures closed higher in a volatile manner this week. The main 2601 contract closed at 2,195 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from last week. The USDA report is slightly bearish, and the domestic corn market has different situations in different regions. The short - term suggestion is to wait and see [8]. - Corn starch futures also closed higher in a narrow - range volatile manner. The main 2601 contract closed at 2,512 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton from last week. With sufficient raw material supply, the industry's operating rate is rising, but the demand is good and the inventory is decreasing. The short - term suggestion is to wait and see [10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Highlights Summary 3.1.1. Corn - **Market Review**: The main 2601 contract of corn futures closed at 2,195 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from last week [8]. - **Market Outlook**: The USDA report shows that the US corn production is slightly bearish. In the domestic market, the purchase price in the Northeast is rising due to reduced supply, but the logistics is poor. In the North China and Huanghuai regions, farmers are reluctant to sell, and the price increase of deep - processing enterprises has slowed down. The short - term suggestion is to wait and see [8]. 3.1.2. Corn Starch - **Market Review**: The main 2601 contract of corn starch futures closed at 2,512 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton from last week [10]. - **Market Outlook**: With the increase in new - season corn supply, the industry's operating rate is rising, but the demand is good and the inventory is decreasing. The short - term suggestion is to wait and see [10]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market 3.2.1. Futures Price and Position Changes - The 1 - month contract of corn futures closed higher in a volatile manner, with a total position of 949,440 lots, an increase of 2,138 lots from last week. The 1 - month contract of corn starch futures also closed higher in a volatile manner, with a total position of 236,928 lots, a decrease of 1,007 lots from last week [16]. 3.2.2. Top Twenty Net Position Changes - The top twenty net position of corn futures was - 108,473 this week, compared with - 121,652 last week, with a slight decrease in net short positions. The top twenty net position of starch futures was - 43,094 this week, compared with - 53,346 last week, with a slight decrease in net short positions [22]. 3.2.3. Futures Warehouse Receipts - The registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn were 68,764 lots, and the registered warehouse receipts of corn starch were 11,710 lots [28]. 3.2.4. Spot Price and Basis - As of November 20, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2,278.82 yuan/ton, and the basis between the active 1 - month contract of corn and the spot average price was + 83 yuan/ton. The spot price of corn starch in Jilin was 2,600 yuan/ton, and in Shandong was 2,800 yuan/ton, with a slight recovery this week. The basis between the 1 - month contract of corn starch and the spot price in Changchun, Jilin was 88 yuan/ton [33][37]. 3.2.5. Futures Inter - month Spread - The 1 - 3 spread of corn was + 0 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period. The 1 - 3 spread of starch was + 5 yuan/ton, also at a medium level in the same period [43]. 3.2.6. Futures Spread between Starch and Corn - The spread between the 1 - month contract of starch and corn was 317 yuan/ton. As of Thursday this week, the spread between Shandong corn and corn starch was 500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 24 yuan/ton compared with last week [52]. 3.2.7. Substitute Spread - As of November 20, 2025, the average spot price of wheat was 2,503.67 yuan/ton, and the average spot price of corn was 2,278.82 yuan/ton, with a wheat - corn spread of 224.85 yuan/ton. In the 46th week of 2025, the average spread between cassava starch and corn starch was 440 yuan/ton, an increase of 118 yuan/ton compared with last week [57]. 3.3. Industrial Chain Situation 3.3.1. Corn - **Supply Side** - **Inventory at Ports**: As of November 14, 2025, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 27.3 tons, a decrease of 18.10 tons from last week; the foreign trade inventory was 35.5 tons, a decrease of 5.70 tons from last week. The corn inventory in the four northern ports was 117 tons, an increase of 9.9 tons week - on - week; the shipping volume of the four northern ports was 40 tons, a decrease of 18.20 tons week - on - week [47]. - **Selling Progress**: As of November 20, the total selling progress of domestic corn was 27%, an increase of 3% from last week and 2% year - on - year [59]. - **Monthly Import Volume**: In September 2025, China's corn import volume was 56,562.26 tons, a decrease of 256,532.84 tons (81.93%) year - on - year, and an increase of 20,404.55 tons month - on - month [63]. - **Feed Enterprise Inventory Days**: As of November 20, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 26.23 days, an increase of 0.62 days from last week, a 2.42% week - on - week increase, and a 9.58% year - on - year decrease [67]. - **Demand Side** - **Livestock Inventory**: At the end of the third quarter, the national pig inventory was 436.8 million heads, an increase of 9.86 million heads (2.3%) year - on - year and 12.33 million heads (2.9%) quarter - on - quarter. The inventory of breeding sows was 40.35 million heads, a decrease of 280,000 heads (0.7%) year - on - year and 90,000 heads (0.2%) quarter - on - quarter [71]. - **Breeding Profit**: As of November 14, 2025, the breeding profit of self - breeding and self - raising pigs was - 114.81 yuan/head, and the breeding profit of purchased piglets was - 205.64 yuan/head [75]. - **Processing Profit**: As of November 20, 2025, the corn starch processing profit in Jilin was 28 yuan/ton. As of November 21, 2025, the corn alcohol processing profit in Henan was - 434 yuan/ton, in Jilin was - 549 yuan/ton, and in Heilongjiang was - 299 yuan/ton [80]. 3.3.2. Corn Starch - **Supply Side** - **Enterprise Inventory**: As of November 19, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 272.7 tons, a decrease of 0.29% [84]. - **Operating Rate and Inventory**: From November 13 to 19, 2025, the national corn processing volume was 61.24 tons, a decrease of 1.95 tons from last week; the national corn starch output was 31.5 tons, a decrease of 1.34 tons from last week; the weekly operating rate was 60.89%, a decrease of 2.59% from last week. As of November 19, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 110.9 tons, a decrease of 2.40 tons from last week, a 2.12% weekly decrease, a 1.68% monthly decrease, and a 25.59% year - on - year increase [88]. 3.4. Option Market Analysis As of November 21, the implied volatility of the options corresponding to the main 2601 contract of corn was 8.42%, up 0.46% from last week's 7.96%. The implied volatility rebounded this week and was slightly lower than the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatilities [91].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The US corn is expected to have a high yield, but the yield per unit may continue to be revised downwards. The December contract of US corn has strong support at 420 cents per bushel. The selling pressure in the Northeast market has weakened, but the supply of corn in North China is relatively low, causing the corn spot price to rise. In the short term, corn will continue to fluctuate at a high level, and the rebound space of contracts 01 and 05 is limited. The spread between contracts 01 and 05 has narrowed. According to the seasonal pattern, the rebound space of the spot price in November is limited. [4] - The operating rate of starch factories has increased, downstream提货 is good, and starch inventory has decreased, but it remains at a historically high level for the same period. As the spot price of corn is relatively strong, the spot price of starch is also rising. However, the profit of starch factories in North China has declined, and the operating rate of starch enterprises will continue to increase. With the large - scale listing of new corn, there is still room for the spot price of starch to fall. It is expected that the December contract of corn starch will fluctuate at a high level following corn. [4] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Corn Situation**: The US corn is expected to have its yield per unit revised down, but the yield is high. It oscillates at around 430 cents per bushel this week, with strong support at 420 cents per bushel for the December contract. Although the tariff for importing US corn into China has been adjusted, there is still no profit in importing US corn. The focus of the market is on farmers' selling rhythm, and there may still be selling pressure on Northeast corn in November. In the short term, the supply of Northeast corn is increasing, and downstream demand for replenishment is driving up the price. The supply of North China corn has decreased, and the corn spot price is oscillating strongly. It is expected that the purchase price at the northern ports will be supported at around 2120 yuan per ton. Contract 01 of corn futures will oscillate at a high level, with limited short - term rebound space. [4] - **Starch Situation**: The operating rate of starch factories has increased, downstream提货 is good, and inventory has decreased but remains high. The spot price of starch is rising with the relatively strong corn price. However, the profit of starch factories in North China has declined, and the operating rate will continue to increase. With the large - scale listing of new corn, the spot price of starch may fall. It is expected that contract 01 of corn starch will follow corn and oscillate at a high level. [4] - **Trading Strategies** - For single - sided trading, consider buying the December contract of US corn below 420 cents per bushel. For contract 05 of corn, consider long - term buying below 2220 yuan per ton. [5] - For arbitrage, consider buying contract 01 of corn and selling contract 01 of starch, and short the spread when the price is high. [5] - For options, consider a cumulative purchase strategy for contract 05 of corn at low prices. [5] Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - **International Market - US Corn**: The October report has not been released yet. It is expected that the yield per unit of US corn will continue to be revised down, but the US corn is in a bumper harvest. The price is oscillating at the bottom, and the December contract has support at 420 cents per bushel. Although China has adjusted tariffs on US agricultural products, there is still no profit in importing US corn. As of November 13, the import profit of Brazilian corn at Guangdong Port is 164 yuan per ton. As of November 6, the weekly export inspection volume of US corn is 1.42 million tons, with a cumulative export volume of 13.73 million tons. The export volume to China this week is 0 tons, with a cumulative export volume of 0 tons. In September, the import volume of corn is 60,000 tons, and the cumulative import volume from January to September is 930,000 tons, compared with 12.83 million tons in the same period last year. As of September 23, the non - commercial net short position of US corn has increased, and the ethanol production has increased. [8][10][11][12][17] - **Domestic Market - Corn Consumption and Inventory** - Feed enterprises: As of November 12, the average corn inventory of 47 large - scale feed mills is 25.61 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.73 days, and a year - on - year decrease of 12.11%. [21] - Deep - processing enterprises: From November 7 to November 12, 2025, 149 major corn deep - processing enterprises consumed 1.3865 million tons of corn, a week - on - week increase of 46,000 tons. As of November 12, the corn inventory of 96 deep - processing enterprises is 273,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.15%. It is expected that the inventory will increase next week. [22] - Port Inventory: As of November 7, the corn inventory at the four northern ports is 1.071 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 50,000 tons, and the shipping volume of the four ports is 582,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 134,000 tons. In Guangdong Port, the domestic corn inventory is 454,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 29,000 tons; the foreign - trade inventory is 412,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 95,000 tons; the imported sorghum is 417,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 60,000 tons; the imported barley is 706,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 29,000 tons; the total grain inventory is 1.989 million tons, an increase of 35,000 tons. [25] - Corn Selling Progress: The selling progress of corn in the main producing areas across the country is faster than last year. The overall national selling progress (including all 13 provinces) is 24%, a week - on - week increase of 2% and a year - on - year increase of 1%. The selling progress of 7 provinces (Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning, Inner Mongolia, Hebei, Shandong, and Henan) is 21%, a week - on - week increase of 3% and a year - on - year increase of 2%. [26] - **Starch Situation**: From November 7 to November 13, the national corn processing volume is 631,900 tons, and the starch production is 328,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 37,000 tons. The operating rate is 63.48%, a week - on - week increase of 0.72%. The spot price of corn in North China has risen, driving up the spot price of starch. The by - product price is stable, and the enterprise profit is stable. The profit per ton of corn in Heilongjiang is 33 yuan, a week - on - week increase of 13 yuan, and the profit in Shandong is 36 yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 23 yuan. Downstream提货 volume has increased, the operating rate has risen, and starch inventory has decreased. As of November 12, the corn starch inventory is 1.133 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.44%, and a year - on - year increase of 27.59%. It is expected that the starch inventory will increase next week. [30] - **Substitute - Wheat**: The factory - delivered price of wheat in North China is basically 2,490 yuan per ton, and the price is relatively strong. The price difference between wheat and corn has narrowed. The price of corn in North China and Northeast China is strong, the price difference between North China and Northeast corn has widened, and the price difference between North China corn and contract 01 of corn has increased. [36] - **Livestock and Poultry Breeding**: From November 7 to November 13, the self - breeding and self - raising profit of pigs is - 64 yuan per head, a week - on - week decrease of 29 yuan; the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding is - 121 yuan per head, a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan. The breeding profit of white - feather broilers is - 0.47 yuan per chicken, compared with - 0.31 yuan per chicken last week. The breeding cost of laying hens is 3.44 yuan per catty, and the breeding profit is - 0.43 yuan per catty, compared with - 0.52 yuan per catty last week. [41][47] - **Deep - processing of Corn Starch - Downstream Consumption**: This week, the operating rate of F55 high - fructose corn syrup is 40.81%, a week - on - week increase of 0.14%; the operating rate of maltose syrup is 43.68%, a week - on - week increase of 0.59%. The operating rate of corrugated paper is 66.7%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.2%; the operating rate of boxboard paper is 70.83%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.64%. [50] Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking No specific additional data tracking content is provided other than what has been summarized above.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Corn: The US corn is expected to have a high yield, but the yield per unit may be further reduced later. The 12 - contract of US corn has strong support at 400 cents per bushel and will fluctuate narrowly in the short term. The focus of the market is on the grain - selling rhythm in Northeast China, with expected selling pressure in November. Northeast corn is weak in the short term, while the supply in North China is increasing. The spot price of corn is oscillating at the bottom. The 01 corn futures will oscillate at the bottom with limited short - term rebound, and the 05 is expected to oscillate strongly [4][5]. - Starch: The operating rate of starch factories is rising, but downstream demand is weak, resulting in an increase in inventory. The spot price of starch is relatively weak, and there is still room for the spot price to fall with the large - scale listing of new corn. The 01 corn starch will follow the corn to oscillate at the bottom [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Corn Situation**: The US corn is expected to see a yield per unit reduction, but the yield is high. The 12 - contract of US corn has strong support at 420 cents per bushel. There is no profit in importing US corn. The market focus is on the Northeast selling rhythm, with expected selling pressure in November. Northeast corn is weak, North China's supply is increasing, and the spot price is at the bottom. The North Port purchase price may fall to around 2070 yuan/ton. The 01 corn futures will oscillate at the bottom with limited rebound, and the 05 is expected to oscillate strongly [4]. - **Starch Situation**: The operating rate of starch factories is rising, downstream demand is weak, and inventory is at a historical high. The spot price of starch is relatively weak, and there is still room for it to fall. The 01 corn starch will follow the corn to oscillate at the bottom [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Try to buy the 12 - contract of US corn below 420 cents per bushel. Long - term buy the 05 corn below 2220. Try to buy 01 corn and sell 01 starch, and shrink the spread when it is high. Adopt the strategy of accumulating purchases for the 05 corn at low prices [5]. 3.2 Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis 3.2.1 International Market - **Supply and Demand**: According to the USDA's September report, although the yield per unit of US corn may be further reduced, the overall supply is still loose. The ending stocks of global and US corn have slightly decreased. The import tariffs of US corn and sorghum in China have been adjusted, but there is still no profit in importing US corn [8][11]. - **Market Position and Ethanol Production**: As of September 23, the non - commercial net short position of US corn increased, and ethanol production increased. The 12 - contract of US corn oscillates around 430 cents per bushel [17]. 3.2.2 Domestic Market - **Inventory and Consumption**: Feed enterprise corn inventory increased but is lower than the same period last year. Deep - processing consumption increased, and inventory decreased slightly but is expected to increase next week. North Port corn inventory increased, and South Port grain inventory decreased [21][22][25]. - **Grain - Selling Progress**: The grain - selling progress is faster than last year. The overall progress of 13 provinces is 22%, 3% higher than the same period last year; the progress of 7 provinces is 18%, 2% higher than the same period last year [28]. - **Starch Market**: The operating rate of starch factories increased, downstream demand was weak, inventory increased significantly year - on - year, and enterprise profits decreased [32]. - **Substitute Market**: The wheat price is basically stable, and the price difference between wheat and corn has widened [39]. 3.3 Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - **Livestock and Poultry Breeding**: From October 30 to November 6, the self - breeding and self - raising profit of pigs was - 35 yuan per head, a decrease of 10 yuan per head from last week; the profit of purchasing piglets was - 117 yuan per head, an increase of 13 yuan per head from last week. The breeding profit of white - feather broilers was - 0.31 yuan per bird, and the egg - laying hen breeding profit was - 0.52 yuan per catty [48][54]. - **Starch Downstream Consumption**: The operating rate of starch sugar and paper mills increased. The operating rate of F55 high - fructose syrup was 40.67%, an increase of 2.62% from last week; the operating rate of maltose syrup was 43.09%, an increase of 1.48% from last week. The operating rate of corrugated paper was 69.9%, an increase of 0.73% from last week; the operating rate of boxboard paper was 71.47%, an increase of 0.63% from last week [57]. - **Prices of Corn and Substitutes**: The price of wheat in North China is around 2490 yuan/ton, and the price difference between wheat and corn has widened [39].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The US corn is expected to remain in a narrow - range oscillation. The spot price of domestic corn still has room to decline, and the 01 corn contract is likely to continue to fall. The corn starch spot price is expected to decline later, and the 01 starch contract on the short - term disk is expected to oscillate at the bottom [7][5][6] Summary by Directory First Part: Data - **Futures Market Data**: The closing prices of different corn and corn starch futures contracts showed varying degrees of increase, with the increase ranging from 0.35% to 0.93%. The trading volume also had significant growth, with the increase rate ranging from 44.48% to 89.04%. The changes in the open interest were relatively small, with an increase or decrease range of - 1.33% to 6.00% [1] - **Spot Market Data**: The spot prices of corn in different regions such as Qinggang, Songyuan Jiji, and Zhucheng Xingmao were provided, along with their price changes. The spot prices of starch from different manufacturers like Longfeng, COFCO, and Cargill were also given, with no price changes on that day [1] - **Basis and Spread Data**: The basis of corn and corn starch, as well as the spreads between different futures contracts (including corn inter - period spreads, starch inter - period spreads, and cross - variety spreads) and their price changes were presented [1][4] Second Part: Market Judgment - **Corn**: The US corn rebounded due to the easing of Sino - US relations, but the production remained high, resulting in a narrow - range oscillation. The import profit of foreign corn decreased. The spot price of corn in the Northeast was stable, while the supply in North China increased, causing the spot price to decline. The domestic breeding demand was stable, but the downstream feed enterprises had low inventory. The 01 corn contract showed a strong oscillation, and the spot basis weakened. The spot price of corn still had room to decline in the short term [3][5] - **Starch**: The number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants increased, and the spot price of corn in Shandong was stable. The starch inventory increased this week, with a monthly increase of 0.89% and a year - on - year increase of 33.26%. The starch price was mainly affected by the corn price and downstream stocking. The by - product price was strong, and the enterprise profit was good. The 01 starch contract followed the corn to oscillate strongly, and it was expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short term [6] - **Trading Strategy**: The US corn is expected to continue to narrow - range oscillate. The spot price of North China corn is relatively stable, while the Jilin corn is being listed in large quantities, putting pressure on the spot price. It is recommended to short the 05 and 01 corn contracts on a short - term basis and try to narrow the spread between the 01 corn and starch contracts when the spread is high [7][8] Third Part: Corn Options - The option strategy is a short - term strategy of accumulating puts and calls, with rolling operations [10] Fourth Part: Related Attachments - The attachments include various graphs showing the spot prices of corn in different regions, the basis of corn 01 contract, the spreads between different corn and corn starch contracts, and the basis and spreads of the corn starch 01 contract [12][14][18]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The U.S. corn market is in a narrow - range oscillation. The import profit of foreign corn has declined, and the domestic corn spot has different trends in different regions. The short - term corn spot still has room to fall. The 01 corn futures have limited rebound space [4][6][8]. - The corn starch inventory has decreased this week. The starch price depends on corn price and downstream stocking. The enterprise profit is good due to the large decline in corn price. The 01 starch futures are expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Directory Part 1: Data - **Futures Market**: For corn futures, C2601 closed at 2141 with a 0.51% increase, C2605 at 2244 with a 0.76% increase, and C2509 at 2263 with a 0.44% increase. For corn starch futures, CS2601 closed at 2453 with a 0.53% increase, CS2605 at 2558 with a 0.39% increase, and CS2509 at 2601 with a 0.46% increase [2]. - **Spot and Basis**: Corn spot prices in different regions had different changes, with prices in Qinggang falling by 5, and in Zhucheng Xingmao rising by 52. Starch spot prices in most regions remained stable, except for Yufeng which decreased by 30. The basis of corn and starch also varied in different regions [2]. - **Spread**: The spreads of corn and corn starch futures contracts and cross - variety spreads had different changes. For example, C01 - C05 was - 103 with a - 6 change, and CS01 - CS05 was - 105 with a 3 change [2]. Part 2: Market Judgment - **Corn**: The U.S. corn market is affected by the high - yield situation and the easing of Sino - U.S. relations. The import profit of foreign corn has declined. The domestic corn market has different trends in different regions. The short - term corn spot still has room to fall, and the market is concerned about the selling pressure of Jilin corn at the end of October [4][6]. - **Starch**: The number of vehicles arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants has decreased, and the corn starch inventory has declined. The starch price is mainly affected by corn price and downstream stocking. The enterprise profit is good, but the corn starch spot may fall later [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: The U.S. corn is expected to oscillate narrowly. The 05 and 01 corn long positions should be closed and wait and see. The spread between 01 corn and starch can be tried to shrink when it is high [8][9]. Part 3: Corn Options - The option strategy is a short - term cumulative put and call strategy with rolling operations [11]. Part 4: Related Attachments - There are six figures, including the spot price of corn in different regions, the basis of corn 01 contract, the spreads of corn 1 - 5 and corn starch 1 - 5, the basis of corn starch 01 contract, and the spread of corn starch 01 contract [13][15][20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - The US corn market is expected to remain in a narrow - range oscillation. The domestic corn spot has short - term downward space, and the 01 corn futures will fluctuate weakly. The 01 starch futures are expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short term. It is recommended to try to go long on 05 and 01 corn lightly and to shrink the spread between 01 corn and starch when the spread is high [4][7][9][10] 3. Summary by Relevant Sections Data Futures Disk - Corn futures (C2601, C2605, C2509) and corn starch futures (CS2601, CS2605, CS2509) all showed price declines on October 30, 2025. For example, C2601 closed at 2111, down 5 (-0.24%), and CS2601 closed at 2419, down 8 (-0.33%). The trading volume and open interest of different contracts had varying degrees of increase or decrease. For instance, the trading volume of C2601 increased by 24.51%, and the open interest of CS2601 decreased by 1.70% [2] Spot and Basis - Corn spot prices in different regions had different trends. The prices in Qinggang, Songyuan Jiji, etc. were reported, with some stable and some falling. The basis of corn in different regions also varied, such as -277 in Qinggang. Starch spot prices in different enterprises were stable, and the basis was relatively high, like 120 in Longfeng. The spreads between different contracts of corn and starch also had changes, for example, the spread of C01 - C05 was -102, up 3 [2] Market Judgment Corn - The US corn market is in a narrow - range oscillation. The import profit of foreign corn has declined, and the FOB price at northern ports in China is stable. The spot price in the Northeast corn - producing area has continued to decline, while the supply in North China has decreased, and the corn spot price has begun to stabilize and rebound. The price difference between Northeast and North China corn has narrowed. The wheat price in North China is relatively strong, and the price difference between wheat and corn has widened. The domestic breeding demand is stable, but the corn spot still has short - term downward space. The market is concerned about the selling pressure of Jilin corn at the end of October [4][7] Starch - The number of vehicles arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants has decreased, and the corn spot price in Shandong has stabilized. The starch inventory has decreased this week. The starch price mainly depends on the corn price and downstream stocking. The by - product price is relatively strong, and the enterprise profit is good. However, due to the possible decline of corn price at the end of October in North China, the starch spot price is also expected to decline, and the 01 starch futures are expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short term [8] Trading Strategy - The US corn is expected to continue to oscillate narrowly. North China corn is stabilizing and rebounding, but there is short - term pressure. It is recommended to try to go long on 05 and 01 corn lightly and to shrink the spread between 01 corn and starch when the spread is high [9][10] Corn Options - The option strategy is a short - term strategy of accumulating puts and calls with rolling operations [12] Relevant Attachments - The attachments include charts of corn and corn starch spot prices, basis, spreads, etc., which visually show the price trends and relationships of different contracts and regions over time [14][16][20]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The US corn report has lowered the yield, but the production remains high, causing the US corn price to decline. It may continue to adjust the yield downward, and the US corn is expected to trade in a narrow range. China has imposed a 15% tariff on US corn, resulting in a 26% tariff within the quota, and a 22% tariff on US sorghum. Despite this, the import profit of foreign corn is relatively high. The domestic corn market shows different trends in different regions, with the spot price in the Northeast being strong and that in North China being weak. The wheat price in North China is strong, and the price difference between wheat and corn has widened, making corn more cost - effective. However, the short - term increase in wheat price is limited due to the rumored wheat auction. The domestic livestock farming demand remains stable, and the inventory of downstream feed enterprises is low. Some enterprises are building inventory in the Northeast, keeping the corn spot price relatively stable in the short term. New - season corn pressure has eased, and the Northeast corn spot price has rebounded, but there may be selling pressure in Jilin at the end of October [4][6]. - In the starch market, the number of vehicles arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants has increased, leading to a weakening of the corn spot price in Shandong. The starch price in Shandong is around 2,760 yuan, and the Northeast starch spot price is stable. The corn starch inventory has decreased this week. The starch price mainly depends on the corn price and downstream stocking. The by - product price is strong, and the enterprise is profitable due to the significant decline in corn price. The 01 starch futures contract is trading in a narrow range following the corn price. As the North China corn price may still decline by the end of October, the corn starch spot price will also fall, but the futures contract has no profit, so it is expected to trade in a narrow range in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Data - **Futures Market**: Corn futures contracts C2601, C2605, and C2509 decreased by 0.52%, 0.45%, and 0.57% respectively, with closing prices of 2,133, 2,239, and 2,274. Their trading volumes decreased by 7.76%, 29.23%, and increased by 40.60% respectively, and open interests increased by 0.47%, 2.99%, and 25.14% respectively. Corn starch futures contracts CS2601 and CS2605 decreased by 0.12% and 0.04% respectively, while CS2509 increased by 0.31%. Their trading volumes decreased by 36.56%, 6.42%, and 20.00% respectively, and open interests increased by 0.51%, 3.00%, and decreased by 1.09% respectively [2]. - **Spot and Basis**: The spot price of corn in Zhucheng Xingmao is 2,340 yuan, while in Qinggang it is 1,970 yuan, up 5 yuan. The basis of corn in different regions ranges from - 304 to 66. The spot price of starch in different enterprises is between 2,650 - 2,920 yuan, and the basis ranges from 101 - 371 [2]. - **Spreads**: The spreads of corn and starch contracts show different changes. For example, the C01 - C05 spread of corn is - 123, down 1, and the CS09 - C09 spread between starch and corn is 338, up 21 [2]. 3.2 Second Part: Market Outlook - **Corn**: The US corn market is affected by yield adjustments and tariff policies. In the domestic market, the price of northern port corn is stable, the Northeast corn spot price is strong, and the North China corn price is weak due to increased supply. The wheat price in North China is strong, and the livestock farming demand is stable. The corn spot price is expected to be relatively stable in the short term, but there may be selling pressure at the end of October [4][6]. - **Starch**: The starch price is mainly influenced by the corn price and downstream stocking. The inventory has decreased this week, and the by - product price is strong. The enterprise is profitable. The 01 starch futures contract is expected to trade in a narrow range following the corn price, and the spot price may decline as the North China corn price falls [7]. - **Trading Strategies**: The US corn is expected to trade in a narrow range. The North China corn price is in a bottom - oscillating state, and the Northeast corn may rebound in the short term. It is recommended to exit the long positions of 01 or 05 corn futures and wait for a pull - back, and to adopt a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage [8]. 3.3 Third Part: Corn Options The recommended option strategy is a short - term strategy of accumulating put and call options with rolling operations [11]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Related Graphs The report provides graphs showing the spot price of corn in different regions, the basis and spreads of corn and corn starch futures contracts over different time periods, which help in analyzing the price trends and market relationships of corn and corn starch [13][15][19].

Report Information - Report Name: Nanhua Futures Corn & Starch Industry Daily Report - Date: October 21, 2025 - Analyst: Dai Hongxu (Investment Consulting License No.: Z0021819) - Research Assistant: Kang Quangui (Qualification Certificate No.: F03148699) - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - On Monday, the corn futures market generally closed higher, with far - month contracts leading the rise. The futures price started to recover from the September decline, showing a near - weak and far - strong pattern. The corn 01 - 05 spread broke through - 100 yuan/ton, hitting a record low, indicating an optimistic market expectation for the 2026 corn price, which may limit the downside price space [2]. - In the spot market, although the current supply pressure still exists, after more than half a month of price decline, the new - season pressure has been released. With the purchase by some Sinograin depots, the spot price has stabilized, suggesting that the first - round price shock is over. The futures price may enter a bottom - grinding stage, and whether it will have a second bottom - probing depends on the corn market performance in the second half of October. The period from late October to early November may confirm the price bottom. It is recommended to focus on whether the 2601 contract can hold the 2100 - yuan level [2]. - Corn starch mainly followed the corn price rebound, showing no independent strength and still weaker than the raw - material side [2]. - On Monday, CBOT corn futures rose for the fifth consecutive trading day but with a small increase, mainly following the soybean price increase, and the high - yield pressure restricted the upward trend [2]. Summary by Related Content Market Performance - **Spot Market**: In the corn spot market, prices in some regions increased, such as in Jinzhou Port (up 30 yuan to 2180 yuan), Harbin (up 20 yuan to 2000 yuan). In the corn starch spot market, the price in Shandong increased by 20 yuan to 2750 yuan [4]. - **Futures Market**: Corn futures prices generally rose, with the corn 07 contract having the largest increase of 1.56% (up 35 yuan to 2272 yuan). Corn starch futures prices also increased, with the corn starch 03 contract rising by 1.16% (up 28 yuan to 2435 yuan) [4]. - **CBOT Market**: CBOT corn futures rose for five consecutive days, with the main - continuous contract price at 424, up 1 (0.24%). The main - continuous contracts of CBOT soybeans and wheat also increased [27]. Factors Affecting the Market - **Likely Positive Factors**: Some Sinograin depots are conducting supportive purchases and may increase the number of purchasing depots; the strong rebound of far - month futures contracts boosts market confidence; in September 2025, China's imports of corn and corn flour were 60,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 81.9%, and from January to September 2025, the cumulative imports were 930,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 92.7%; the National Food and Strategic Reserves Administration held a meeting to promote autumn - grain purchase and production - sales connection, emphasizing measures to maintain reasonable grain prices and protect farmers' interests [2][3]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The pig industry is in the process of capacity adjustment, which may affect the long - term feed demand for corn; the release of new - season supply pressure still takes time, and the spot price remains under pressure [3]. Other Information - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of registered corn warehouse receipts increased significantly by 12,615 to 49,324 [2]. - **Import Price and Profit**: The landed duty - paid price of US Gulf corn was 2119.1 yuan, up 6.07 (0.29%), with an import profit of 190.9 yuan; the landed duty - paid price of US West corn was 1965.97 yuan, up 0.95 (0.05%), with an import profit of 344.03 yuan [27].