研究所 农产品研发报告 玉米淀粉日报 2026 年 2 月 24 日 玉米淀粉日报 第一部分 数据 | 玉米&玉米淀粉数据日报 | | | | | | | | 2026/2/24 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | | 期货 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减幅 | 持仓量 | 增减幅 | | C2601 | | 2300 | 11 | 0.48% | 1,130 | 43.04% | 4,014 | 3.21% | | C2605 | | 2332 | 12 | 0.51% | 609,628 | -7.37% | 1,298,098 | 7.06% | | C2509 | | 2354 | 17 | 0.72% | 24,842 | 47.64% | 93,608 | 3.66% | | CS2601 | | 2643 | 20 | 0.76% | 20 | -53.49% | 76 | 4.11% | | CS2605 | | 2663 | 25 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The supply pressure of US corn has weakened, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly at the bottom. North China corn supply has decreased, and the spot price is relatively strong, while Northeast corn is stable. The spot price is still weak in the short - term, but the purchase price at the northern ports is strong today. The price of North China wheat is strong, and the price difference between Northeast and North China corn has widened. The market expects North China corn to be stable before the Spring Festival, while Northeast corn may face selling pressure later. Corn spot prices still have room to fall, and the 03 corn contract will also decline, but the 07 corn contract has limited downside space. The 03 starch contract is expected to fluctuate at the bottom in the short - term [4][7][9] Summary by Directory Part 1: Data - **Futures Market**: For corn futures, C2601 closed at 2257 with no change; C2605 closed at 2274, down 5 (-0.22%); C2509 closed at 2301, up 1 (0.04%). For corn starch futures, CS2601 closed at 2587, up 4 (0.15%); CS2605 closed at 2596, up 2 (0.08%); CS2509 closed at 2618, up 2 (0.08%). The trading volume and open interest of each contract also changed to varying degrees [2] - **Spot and Basis**: Corn spot prices in different regions showed different trends, with prices in some areas rising slightly. The basis of corn and starch also varied by region. The price difference of corn and starch across different periods and varieties also changed [2] Part 2: Market Judgment - **Corn**: US corn prices have fallen, but the global supply pressure has weakened, and it is still in a bottom - oscillating state. The import profit of foreign corn has increased. The ex - warehouse price at northern ports is strong, and the spot price in the Northeast is stable. The supply in North China has decreased, and the spot price is stable. The price difference between North China and Northeast corn has widened. Wheat prices are strong, and corn is still cost - effective. Domestic breeding demand is stable, and the inventory of downstream feed enterprises has increased. The market is concerned about the seasonal selling pressure of Northeast corn before the Spring Festival and the inventory - building situation of downstream enterprises [4][7] - **Starch**: The number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants has decreased, the corn spot price in Shandong is strong, and the starch price is around 2780 yuan. The starch inventory in Northeast China is stable, and the overall corn starch inventory has declined this week. The starch price mainly depends on corn price and downstream inventory - building. By - product prices are weakening but are still higher than last year. The spot price difference between corn and starch is at a low level. The 03 starch contract oscillated narrowly following corn, and the spot price is expected to stabilize in the short - term [8] - **Trading Strategies**: For single - side trading, the 03 US corn has support at 420 cents per bushel, and the 07 and 05 corn contracts can be short - bought on dips. For arbitrage, conduct a reverse spread of 3 - 7 corn and widen the spread between 05 corn and starch on dips [10] Part 3: Corn Options - Option Strategy: Adopt a short - term put - accumulation strategy with rolling operations [11] Part 4: Related Attachments - The attachments show the historical trends of North Port's corn ex - warehouse price, corn 05 contract basis, corn 5 - 9 spread, corn starch 5 - 9 spread, corn starch 05 contract basis, and corn starch 05 contract spread [15][16][17][18][20][21]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment outlook for the corn industry is "oscillating," with short - term expectations for the corn futures market to maintain a narrow - range oscillation. After the Spring Festival, it is expected to remain range - bound, with attention to factors such as the pressure of ground - stored grain sales, policy grain release policies, import policies, and the growth of new - season wheat [5]. 2. Report's Core View - The current corn purchase and sales are nearing the end, and the futures market is in a narrow - range oscillation. The supply side is bullish, the demand side is neutral - bearish, inventory is neutral - bearish, basis/spread is bullish, profit is neutral - bullish, and valuation is neutral. Overall, the market is expected to oscillate in the short - term and after the Spring Festival [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Bullish. The current grain - selling progress at the grass - roots level has exceeded 60%, faster than the same period last year. There may be some selling pressure around the Spring Festival, but this year's grain quality is relatively dry, and the inventories of mid - and downstream enterprises are low, so the expected impact of selling pressure is limited. The planting cost in the 25/26 season decreased, with increased production in the Northeast and Northwest and decreased production in North China, and the country as a whole is expected to have a bumper harvest. The expected rent cost for corn planting in the 26/27 season is rising (for example, in Heilongjiang, it is expected to rise by 200 yuan per mu) [5]. - **Demand**: Neutral - bearish. The self - breeding and self - raising pig farming profit has turned positive, the pig inventory and weight are at a high level, and the capacity reduction is not obvious yet. The egg - poultry farming profit has recovered, and the speed of culling laying hens has slowed down. The short - term feed demand for corn is still supported. Under the expectation of capacity adjustment and policy control, the long - term feed demand is expected to shrink. Feed enterprises' inventories have increased month - on - month, and pre - festival stocking is basically over. Deep - processing enterprises' inventories have increased significantly, and pre - festival stocking is basically over. Traders have not built large - scale strategic inventories and have a certain demand for replenishing stocks [5]. - **Inventory**: Neutral - bearish. The domestic trade corn inventories at the north and south ports have increased month - on - month and are still at a low level. Feed enterprises' inventories have increased month - on - month, and deep - processing corn inventories have increased month - on - month [5]. - **Basis/Spread**: Bullish. The basis is at a relatively high level [5]. - **Profit**: Neutral - bullish. The self - breeding and self - raising profit of pigs has returned to positive, the meat - poultry farming has a small profit, and the egg - poultry farming profit has recovered. The deep - processing starch and alcohol processing profits are in the red [5]. - **Valuation**: Neutral. Considering the basis, the valuation of the corn futures market is moderately low [5]. - **Investment View**: Oscillating. Pre - festival stocking is nearing the end, and the corn futures market is expected to maintain a narrow - range oscillation in the short - term. After the Spring Festival, attention should be paid to the selling pressure of ground - stored grain, but this year's grain in the Northeast is relatively dry, and supported by the rigid demand for replenishing stocks of mid - and downstream enterprises, the expected selling pressure is limited. In addition, attention should be paid to post - festival policy grain release policies, import policy changes, and the growth of new - season wheat [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, expect range - bound movement; for arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach [5]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - The report presents multiple charts, including the basis trend of the main corn futures contract, the average prices in different markets (such as Jinzhou Port, Heilongjiang, Shandong, and Shekou Port), the open interest trends of different corn futures contracts (01, 03, 05, 09), and the spreads between different contracts (C03 - C05, C05 - C09) [7][8][13]. 3.3 Domestic Corn Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Grain - Selling Progress**: Charts show the grain - selling progress in Northeast and North China [23]. - **Port and Processing Data**: Include the arrival volume of corn at northern ports, the remaining number of vehicles for deep - processing in Shandong, the price difference between Shekou Port and Jinzhou Port, the shipping volume of corn from the four northern ports, etc. [25][28]. - **Import Data**: The import of grains in January and February decreased, and the import profit of US corn was at a high level. Charts show the monthly import volumes of sorghum, corn, and barley in China, as well as the theoretical import profit of US Gulf corn [33][34]. - **Inventory Data**: The corn inventories at the north and south ports are at a low level. Data on the inventories of feed enterprises, deep - processing enterprises, and different ports (such as Guangdong Port) are presented, as well as the inventory days of feed enterprises and the monthly feed production volume [40][47][49]. - **Livestock and Poultry Farming Data**: Include the self - breeding and self - raising profit of pigs, the profit of purchasing and fattening pigs, the average price and weight of commercial pig slaughter, the breeding profit of white - feather broilers, the in - production inventory of parent - stock chickens, the egg - chicken farming profit, the age of culled laying hens, etc. [51][59][65]. - **Deep - Processing Data**: Deep - processing corn consumption has declined, and deep - processing corn inventories have increased significantly. The processing profit of starch is in the red, and starch inventories are being depleted. The开机 rate of alcohol has declined, and the processing profit is at a low level. There are also data on the开机 rate and profit of related downstream industries such as beverages, paper - making [68][73][97]. 3.4 Foreign Corn Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **January Report**: The corn stock - to - consumption ratios of major exporting countries in the 2025/26 season have been raised. The report shows the corn stock - to - consumption ratios of the US and other major exporting countries [116]. - **Export Data**: US corn export sales have performed well, and the report presents the export sales volume, cumulative export sales volume, and export sales volume to China of US corn [123].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The corn futures market is experiencing a narrow - range oscillation. The international market is affected by the loose supply - demand pattern of US corn, with potential import pressure. In the domestic market, the sales of Northeast corn are over 60%, and the market trading is gradually weakening. The price of Northeast corn is slightly weak, while that in North China and Huanghuai regions is mainly fluctuating slightly. The corn starch futures market is also oscillating. As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream提货 is active, and the industry inventory is declining [8][10]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Corn**: The main 2603 contract of corn futures closed at 2,274 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton from last week. The international corn price is restricted by the loose supply - demand situation in the US. In the domestic market, Northeast farmers have sold over 60% of their corn, and market trading is weakening. The price of Northeast corn is slightly weak, and that in North China and Huanghuai regions is fluctuating slightly. The futures price has dropped from its short - term high [8]. - **Corn Starch**: The main 2603 contract of Dalian corn starch futures closed at 2,540 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton from last week. As the Spring Festival is approaching, logistics is about to stop, downstream is actively picking up goods, and the inventory is decreasing. As of February 4, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 995,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 33,000 tons, a week - on - week decline of 3.21%, a month - on - month decline of 3.21%, and a year - on - year decline of 24.85%. The short - term strategy is to wait and see [10]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Position Changes**: The March contract of corn futures oscillated up and down this week, with a total position of 504,926 hands, a decrease of 369,773 hands from last week. The March contract of corn starch futures oscillated slightly up, with a total position of 126,882 hands, a decrease of 30,699 hands from last week [16]. - **Top 20 Net Position Changes**: The top 20 net position of corn futures this week was - 120,101, compared with - 187,331 last week, and the net short position decreased. The top 20 net position of starch futures this week was - 28,786, compared with - 27,519 last week, and the net short position increased [23]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn were 60,440, and those of corn starch were 11,611 [29]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: As of February 5, 2026, the average spot price of corn was 2,368.82 yuan/ton, and the basis between the active March contract of corn futures and the average spot price was + 94 yuan/ton. The spot price of corn starch in Jilin was 2,700 yuan/ton, and in Shandong was 2,790 yuan/ton. The basis between the March contract of corn starch futures and the spot price in Changchun, Jilin was 160 yuan/ton [34][38]. - **Futures Inter - month Spread**: The 3 - 5 spread of corn was - 5 yuan/ton, at a relatively high level in the same period. The 3 - 5 spread of starch was - 54 yuan/ton, also at a relatively high level in the same period [43]. - **Futures Spread between Starch and Corn**: The spread between the March contracts of starch and corn was 266 yuan/ton. As of Thursday this week, the spread between Shandong corn and corn starch was 434 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/ton [52]. - **Substitute Spread**: As of February 5, 2026, the average spot price of wheat was 2,531.67 yuan/ton, and that of corn was 2,368.82 yuan/ton, with the wheat - corn spread at 162.85 yuan/ton. In the 6th week of 2026, the average spread between tapioca starch and corn starch was 575 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2 yuan/ton [57]. 3. Industry Chain Situation Corn - **Supply Side** - **Port Inventory**: As of January 30, 2026, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 582,000 tons, an increase of 241,000 tons from last week; the foreign trade inventory was 122,000 tons, a decrease of 42,000 tons from last week. The total corn inventory in the four northern ports was 1.732 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 101,000 tons; the shipping volume of the four northern ports in the week was 706,000 tons, the same as last week [47]. - **Domestic Corn Sales Progress**: As of February 5, the overall sales progress of domestic corn was 63%, a week - on - week increase of 3% and a year - on - year increase of 5%. The sales progress in Northeast China was 64%, a week - on - week increase of 4% and a year - on - year increase of 8% [59]. - **Monthly Import Arrivals**: In December 2025, China's total corn imports were 800,100 tons, an increase of 456,900 tons compared with 343,200 tons in the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 133.12%, and a month - on - month increase of 245,200 tons compared with 554,900 tons in the previous month [63]. - **Feed Enterprise Corn Inventory Days**: As of February 5, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 32.59 days, an increase of 0.66 days from last week, a week - on - week increase of 2.07%, and a year - on - year increase of 6.89% [67]. - **Demand Side** - **Pig and Sows Inventory**: At the end of 2025, the national pig inventory was 429.67 million, an increase of 2.24 million from the end of last year, a growth of 0.5%. Among them, the sows inventory was 39.61 million, a decrease of 1.16 million, a decline of 2.9% [71]. - **Breeding Profit**: As of January 30, 2026, the breeding profit of self - breeding and self - raising pigs was 25.1 yuan/head, and that of purchasing piglets was 124.13 yuan/head [75]. - **Starch and Alcohol Enterprise Profit**: As of February 5, 2026, the corn starch processing profit in Jilin was - 71 yuan/ton. The corn alcohol processing profit in Henan was - 659 yuan/ton, in Jilin was - 754 yuan/ton, and in Heilongjiang was - 194 yuan/ton [80]. Corn Starch - **Supply Side** - **Enterprise Inventory**: As of February 4, 2026, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions across the country was 5.127 million tons, an increase of 16.39% [84]. - **Starch Enterprise Startup Rate and Inventory**: From January 29 to February 4, 2026, the total national corn processing volume was 614,100 tons, a decrease of 17,200 tons from last week; the national corn starch output was 316,200 tons, a decrease of 12,100 tons from last week; the weekly startup rate was 57.79%, a decrease of 2.2% from last week. As of February 4, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 995,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 33,000 tons, a week - on - week decline of 3.21%, a month - on - month decline of 3.21%, and a year - on - year decline of 24.85% [88]. 4. Options Market Analysis - As of February 6, the main 2603 contract of corn oscillated up and down, and the corresponding implied volatility of options was 10.57%, a slight decrease of 0.22% from 10.79% last week. The implied volatility changed little this week and was at a slightly higher level than the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatilities [91].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - US corn supply pressure eases, expected to oscillate strongly at the bottom. North China corn supply increases, with stable spot prices, while Northeast corn prices decline. The spot price is still weak in the short - term, but the purchase price at the northern port is strong today. North China wheat prices are strong, and the price difference between Northeast and North China corn widens. The market is trading on the increased pre - Chinese New Year grain sales in North China, and there is still selling pressure on Northeast corn later. Corn spot prices still have room to fall, and the 03 corn contract will also decline, but the decline of the 07 corn contract is limited [4][7][9]. - The number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants increases, and Shandong corn spot prices are stable. Northeast starch spot prices are stable. Corn starch inventory has decreased this week. Starch prices mainly depend on corn prices and downstream stocking. By - product prices are weakening but are still higher than last year. The spot price difference between corn and starch is at a low level. North China corn is stable in the short - term, and Northeast corn is stable. Due to the end of pre - Chinese New Year stocking, corporate losses are expanding. The 03 starch contract oscillates narrowly following corn, and the spot price of starch stabilizes in the short - term. It is expected that the 03 starch contract will oscillate at the bottom in the short - term [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data - **Futures Disk**: For corn futures contracts (C2601, C2605, C2509) and corn starch futures contracts (CS2601, CS2605, CS2509), the closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, trading volume change percentages, open interests, and open interest change percentages are provided. For example, C2605 closed at 2273, up 2 with a 0.09% increase, trading volume of 272,543 with a 27.13% increase, and open interest of 829,931 with a 3.85% increase [2]. - **Spot and Basis**: Corn spot prices are provided for different regions (Qinggang, Songyuan Jiji, Zhucheng Xingmao, etc.), and starch spot prices are provided for different manufacturers (Longfeng, COFCO, etc.). The basis for both corn and starch is also given. For example, the corn price in Qinggang is 2135, with a basis of - 162 [2]. - **Price Difference**: Corn inter - period spreads (such as C01 - C05, C05 - C09), starch inter - period spreads (such as CS01 - CS05, CS05 - CS09), and cross - variety spreads (such as CS09 - C09, CS01 - C01) are presented, along with their price changes [2]. 3.2 Market Judgment - **Corn**: US corn rebounds from the bottom but still oscillates at the bottom. The profit of imported foreign corn increases. The closing price at the northern port is strong, while Northeast corn spot prices continue to decline. North China corn supply increases, and the price is stable. The price difference between North China and Northeast corn widens. Wheat and corn are being auctioned, and wheat prices are strong. The feed demand is stable, and downstream inventory increases. The 03 contract oscillates narrowly, and the spot basis strengthens. The market is concerned about the seasonal selling pressure of Northeast corn before the Chinese New Year and downstream inventory building [4][7]. - **Starch**: The number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants increases, and Shandong corn prices are stable. Northeast starch prices are stable. Corn starch inventory decreases. Starch prices depend on corn prices and downstream stocking. By - product prices are weakening but are still higher than last year. The 03 starch contract oscillates narrowly following corn, and the spot price stabilizes in the short - term [8]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: The 03 US corn has support at 420 cents per bushel. Go long on the 07 and 05 corn contracts on dips [10]. - **Arbitrage**: Reverse arbitrage on the 3 - 7 corn contracts, and widen the spread between the 05 corn and starch contracts on dips [10]. 3.4 Corn Options - Option Strategy: Use the short - term cumulative put option strategy and operate in a rolling manner [11]. 3.5 Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the northern port corn closing price, corn 05 contract basis, corn 5 - 9 spread, corn starch 5 - 9 spread, corn starch 05 contract basis, and corn starch 05 contract spread [15][16][21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to the recent drought in Argentina, the supply pressure of US corn has weakened, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly at the bottom. The spot price of corn in North China is stable, while that in Northeast China is falling. The spot price of corn is still weak in the short - term, and the purchase price at northern ports has declined today. The price of wheat in North China is strong, and the price difference between Northeast and North China corn has widened. The market is trading on the increased grain sales in North China before the Spring Festival, and there is still selling pressure on Northeast corn later. The rebound space of corn spot is limited, and there is still room for C03 to fall, but the decline of C07 is limited. The 03 starch is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [4][7][9] - The price of starch mainly depends on the price of corn and downstream stocking. The inventory of corn starch has decreased this week. Although the pre - holiday stocking is basically over, the North China spot is strong, and enterprises are still at a loss. The 03 starch follows corn to fluctuate weakly, and the spot price of starch is expected to stabilize in the short - term [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data - **Futures Disk**: For corn futures, C2601 closed at 2254, up 5 (0.22%); C2605 closed at 2270, up 10 (0.44%); C2509 closed at 2297, up 12 (0.52%). For corn starch futures, CS2601 closed at 2570, up 6 (0.23%); CS2605 closed at 2572, unchanged; CS2509 closed at 2601, up 9 (0.35%) [2] - **Spot and Basis**: Corn spot prices in different regions showed different trends. For example, the price in Qinggang was 2135, down 10; the price in Songyuan Jiajie was 2200, unchanged. The basis for corn in different regions ranged from - 162 to 143. Starch spot prices also varied, with some rising, such as Yufeng up 30, and some unchanged. The basis for starch in different regions ranged from 128 to 348 [2] - **Spreads**: For corn inter - period spreads, C01 - C05 was - 16, down 5; for starch inter - period spreads, CS01 - CS05 was - 2, up 6; for cross - variety spreads, CS09 - C09 was 304, down 3 [2] 3.2 Market Judgment - **Corn**: The drought in Argentina has led to a bottom - rebound of US corn, but it still fluctuates at the bottom due to global supply pressure. The import profit of foreign corn is rising. The spot price of corn in Northeast China is falling, and the price in North China is stable. The price difference between wheat and corn is large, and corn has cost - effectiveness. The domestic breeding demand is stable, and the inventory of downstream feed enterprises has increased. The market is concerned about the seasonal selling pressure of Northeast corn before the Spring Festival and the downstream inventory - building [4][7] - **Starch**: The number of vehicles arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants has increased, and the spot price of corn in Shandong is stable. The inventory of corn starch has decreased this week. The price of starch mainly depends on the price of corn and downstream stocking. The by - product price is strong, and the spot price difference between corn and starch is at a low level. The 03 starch is expected to fluctuate weakly [8] 3.3 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: 03 US corn has support at 420 cents per bushel. Go short - term long on 07 and 05 corn on dips [10] - **Arbitrage**: Conduct a 3 - 7 corn reverse spread [11] 3.4 Corn Options - **Option Strategy**: Adopt a short - term cumulative put strategy and conduct rolling operations [12] 3.5 Related Figures - The report provides six figures, showing the North Port corn closing price, corn 05 contract basis, corn 5 - 9 spread, corn starch 5 - 9 spread, corn starch 05 contract basis, and corn starch 05 contract spread over different time periods [16][17][22]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the recent drought in Argentina, the supply pressure has weakened. It is expected that US corn will oscillate strongly at the bottom. The supply of corn in North China has increased, and the spot price of corn is stable. The price of corn in Northeast China has declined, and the spot price is still weak in the short term. The purchase price at the northern port has dropped today. The price of wheat in North China is strong, and the price gap between Northeast corn and North China corn has widened. Recently, the market has been trading on the increased grain sales in North China before the Spring Festival. There is still selling pressure on Northeast corn later. The rebound space of the corn spot price is limited. There is still room for the 03 corn contract to decline, but the decline space of the 07 corn contract is limited. The 03 starch contract is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [4][7][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data - **Futures Market**: The prices of various futures contracts of corn and corn starch, including C2601, C2605, C2509, CS2601, CS2605, and CS2509, have declined. The trading volume of most contracts has increased, and the positions of some contracts have changed. For example, the trading volume of C2605 has increased by 33.44%, and the position has decreased by 2.13% [2]. - **Spot and Basis**: The spot prices of corn in different regions have changed, with some prices falling and some rising. The basis of corn and starch in different regions has also been reported. The spot prices of starch in different regions have also changed, with some prices remaining unchanged and some rising [2]. - **Price Spreads**: The price spreads of corn and starch in different periods and across varieties have changed. For example, the price spread of C01 - C05 is -11, with a change of 9; the price spread of CS01 - CS05 is -8, with a change of -5 [2]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **Corn**: The drought in Argentina has led to a rebound in the bottom of US corn, but it is still oscillating at the bottom due to global supply pressure. The import profit of foreign corn has increased. The spot price of corn in the northern port has declined, and the price in the Northeast has fallen back on the weekend. The supply in North China is relatively small, and the spot price is strong. The price gap between North China wheat and corn is still large, and corn is still cost - effective. The domestic breeding demand is stable, and the inventory of downstream feed enterprises has increased. The supply of corn in the Northeast has increased recently, and the price has dropped. The port inventory is low, and the purchase price at the northern port has declined today. The 03 contract is oscillating and falling back, and the spot basis is strengthening. The market is currently concerned about the seasonal selling pressure of Northeast corn before the Spring Festival and the inventory building of downstream enterprises [4][7]. - **Starch**: The number of vehicles arriving at deep - processing plants in Shandong has increased, and the spot price of corn in Shandong is stable. The spot price of starch in Northeast China is stable. The inventory of corn starch has decreased this week. The current starch price mainly depends on the corn price and downstream stocking. The by - product price is still strong, much higher than last year. The spot price gap between corn and starch is at a low level. The corn in North China is stable in the short term, and the Northeast corn is stable. Due to the end of pre - Spring Festival stocking, enterprises are still in a loss. The 03 starch contract is oscillating weakly following the corn. The price of North China corn has started to rise, and the starch spot price has stabilized in the short term [8]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: The 03 US corn contract is supported at 420 cents per bushel. Long positions should be continued to be established in the 07 and 05 corn contracts [10]. - **Arbitrage**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [11]. 3.4 Corn Options - Option Strategy: Adopt a short - term cumulative put option strategy and conduct rolling operations [12]. 3.5 Relevant Attachments - The attachments include charts of the northern port's corn closing price, corn 05 contract basis, corn 5 - 9 price spread, corn starch 5 - 9 price spread, corn starch 05 contract basis, and corn starch 05 contract price spread, which visually show the price changes of relevant products over time [16][17][19][22].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of global corn has weakened, and US corn is still oscillating at the bottom. The import profit of foreign corn has increased, and the domestic corn spot is relatively stable in the short - term. The 03 corn still has room to fall, while the 07 and 05 corn can consider building long positions on dips. [4][6][8][9] - The inventory of corn starch has decreased this week. Due to the end of pre - holiday stocking, the starch spot is weak, and the enterprise is still in a loss. It is expected that the short - term 03 starch futures will oscillate weakly. [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data - **Futures Disk**: For corn futures (C2601, C2605, C2509), the closing prices are 2263, 2286, and 2305 respectively, with increases of 0.35%, 0.31%, and 0.35%. For corn starch futures (CS2601, CS2605, CS2509), the closing prices are 2592, 2607, and 2620 respectively, with changes of 0.15%, - 0.12%, and - 0.11%. [2] - **Spot and Basis**: Corn spot prices in different regions (such as Qinggang, Songyuan Jiji) are stable. The basis of corn and starch in different regions is provided. For example, the basis of corn in Qinggang is - 145, and the basis of starch in Longfeng is 123. [2] - **Spreads**: Corn inter - period spreads (C01 - C05, C05 - C09, C09 - C01), starch inter - period spreads (CS01 - CS05, CS05 - CS09, CS09 - CS01), and cross - variety spreads (CS09 - C09, CS01 - C01, CS05 - C05) are presented, along with their price changes. [2] 3.2 Market Judgment - **Corn**: Affected by the drought in Argentina, the supply pressure of US corn has weakened, but it is still oscillating at the bottom. The import profit of foreign corn has increased. Domestic corn spot is relatively stable in the short - term. The market is concerned about the seasonal selling pressure of Northeast China's corn before the Spring Festival and the downstream inventory building situation. [4][6] - **Starch**: The number of vehicles arriving at Shandong's deep - processing plants has increased, and the corn spot in Shandong is stable. The corn starch inventory has decreased this week. The starch spot is weak due to the end of pre - holiday stocking, and the enterprise is still in a loss. It is expected that the short - term 03 starch futures will oscillate weakly. [7] 3.3 Trading Strategies - **Single - side**: The 03 US corn has support at 420 cents per bushel. Consider building long positions on dips for the 07 and 05 corn. [9] - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see. [10] 3.4 Corn Options - Option Strategy: Short - term cumulative put option strategy with rolling operations. [11] 3.5 Relevant Attachments - Multiple charts are provided, including the North Port corn closing price, corn 05 contract basis, corn 5 - 9 spread, corn starch 5 - 9 spread, corn starch 05 contract basis, and corn starch 05 contract spread, to show the price trends over time. [14][15][16][17][19][20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The report predicts that US corn will experience a relatively strong upward trend at the bottom due to the recent speculation about the drought in Argentina and the weakening supply pressure [8]. - Corn spot prices are expected to remain relatively stable in the short term. However, the upside potential for corn spot prices is limited, and there is room for a decline in the 03 corn futures contract [8]. - The 03 starch futures contract is expected to experience a weakening trend in the short - term, with a downward - trending price movement [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data - **Futures Market**: - Corn futures, including contracts C2601, C2605, and C2509, all showed price declines, with decreases of 0.09%, 0.35%, and 0.22% respectively. Trading volume decreased significantly, while open interest increased [2]. - Corn starch futures, such as contracts CS2601, CS2605, and CS2509, also had price drops, with decreases of 0.39%, 0.35%, and 0.69% respectively. The trading volume of CS2601 increased by 1300%, and open interest increased across the board [2]. - **Spot and Basis**: - Corn spot prices in various regions showed mixed trends. For example, the price in Qinggang remained unchanged, while the price in Nantong Port increased by 10 yuan, and the price in Zhucheng Xingmao decreased by 6 yuan. The basis varied from region to region, with values ranging from - 138 to 152 yuan [2]. - Starch spot prices in different enterprises remained stable, and the basis was positive, with values between 92 and 292 yuan [2]. - **Spread**: - Corn inter - delivery spreads, such as C01 - C05, C05 - C09, and C09 - C01, showed different changes. Starch inter - delivery spreads and cross - variety spreads also had corresponding price fluctuations [2]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **Corn**: - The drought in Argentina has led to a rebound in the price of US corn at the bottom, but it still oscillates at a low level due to the global supply pressure. The import profit of foreign corn has increased, and the import price from Brazil in July was 2194 yuan [4]. - The flat - hatch price at northern ports has decreased, while the spot price in the Northeast corn - producing area has remained stable. The supply of corn in North China has decreased, and the spot price is relatively strong. The price difference between Northeast and North China corn has narrowed [4][6]. - Wheat and corn auctions are ongoing. The wheat price in North China is relatively strong, with a price around 2510 yuan/ton. The price difference between wheat and corn is still large, and corn has a cost - performance advantage. The domestic aquaculture demand is stable, and the inventory of downstream feed enterprises has increased [6]. - **Starch**: - The number of trucks delivering corn to deep - processing enterprises in Shandong has increased, and the local corn spot price has remained stable. The starch price in Shandong is around 2780 yuan, and the spot price in the Northeast is stable. The corn starch inventory has decreased this week, with the manufacturer's inventory at 106.9 million tons, a decrease of 3.1 million tons from last week, a monthly decline of 3.0%, and a year - on - year increase of 10.4% [7]. - The starch price is mainly affected by the corn price and downstream inventory - building. The by - product price is relatively strong, and the spot price difference between corn and starch is at a low level. Due to the end of pre - holiday inventory - building, the starch spot price is weak, and enterprises are still operating at a loss [7]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - **Single - sided trading**: The 03 US corn has support at 420 cents per bushel. Close the short positions of 03 corn and 03 starch [9]. - **Arbitrage**: Close the reverse spread position of the 35 starch contract [10]. - **Option Strategy**: Adopt a short - term cumulative put option strategy with rolling operations [11]. 3.4 Related Attachments - The attachments include six charts, showing the flat - hatch price of corn at northern ports, the basis of the corn 05 contract, the 5 - 9 spread of corn, the 5 - 9 spread of corn starch, the basis of the corn starch 05 contract, and the spread of the corn starch 05 contract, respectively [14][15][18]

Report Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - Corn spot prices face ongoing contradictions and are expected to experience short - term high - level fluctuations. Northeast corn sales progress is relatively fast, port inventories are low, and there is a certain pre - holiday restocking demand from the mid - and downstream sectors. As a result, short - term spot prices remain firm, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate at a high level [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Bullish. The current grass - roots grain sales progress has exceeded 50%, with faster - than - average sales in the Northeast. This year's Chinese New Year is later, providing a longer pre - holiday grain sales window, and farmers still have a price - holding sentiment. The planting cost in the 25/26 season continues to decline, with increased production in the Northeast and Northwest and decreased production in North China, but the overall national production is expected to be abundant [4]. - **Demand**: Slightly bullish. High pig inventories and limited capacity reduction support short - term feed demand. However, due to capacity adjustment and policy control expectations, long - term feed demand is expected to decline. Feed enterprises maintain safety stocks and conduct rolling restocking. Deep - processing enterprises have seasonal restocking needs but are cautious. Traders have not carried out large - scale strategic restocking and have restocking requirements [4]. - **Inventory**: Bullish. Due to strong shipping demand, the inventory accumulation speed at North Ports is slow, and the inventory remains at a low level, mostly contract - order inventory. The domestic trade corn inventory at South Ports is also at a low level. Feed enterprises maintain safety stocks, and deep - processing corn inventories are low [4]. - **Basis/Spread**: Neutral. The basis is neutral [4]. - **Profit**: Neutral. The self - breeding and self - raising profit of pigs has returned to positive, broiler farming has a small profit, and layer farming profit has recovered. However, the processing profits of deep - processed starch and alcohol are in the red [4]. - **Valuation**: Neutral. From the perspective of planting costs, the corn futures valuation is high; from the basis perspective, it is neutral [4]. - **Investment Viewpoint**: Fluctuating. Given the fast sales progress in the Northeast, low port inventories, and restocking demand from the mid - and downstream sectors, short - term spot prices are firm, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate at a high level [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading is expected to be slightly bullish, and arbitrage trading should be on the sidelines. Attention should be paid to policies and weather [4]. 2. Futures and Spot Market Review - **Market Trends**: The report presents the basis trend of the corn main contract, prices at various ports (Jinzhou Port, Heilongjiang, Shandong, and Shekou Port), and the futures market's open interest, indicating that the open interest is at a high level [7][9][13]. 3. Domestic Corn Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Grain Sales Progress**: The sales progress in the Northeast and North China is presented, with the Northeast's sales progress being relatively fast. The channel supply is at a high level [23][25]. - **Imported Grains**: Imported grains decreased in January and February, and the import profit of US corn is at a high level [35]. - **Port Conditions**: Corn inventories at both North and South Ports are at low levels. Feed enterprises' inventory days and monthly feed production are also presented [42][49][51]. - **Livestock and Poultry Farming**: Pig prices have slightly rebounded, and the pig weight is at a high level. Broiler and layer farming profits show different trends, and the inventory of parent - stock chickens and layer chickens is also presented [58][62][68]. - **Deep - Processing Industry**: Deep - processing corn consumption shows a seasonal decline, and deep - processing corn inventories are low. Starch processing profits are in the red, and starch inventories are at a high level. Alcohol production rates are declining, and processing profits are falling. Paper - making production rates are high, but profits are declining. Wheat prices have slightly increased, and flour demand is weak [72][78][91][99][107]. 4. Foreign Corn Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **January Report**: The corn stock - to - consumption ratios of major exporting countries in the 2025/26 season have been raised. The US corn export sales performance is good [118][125].