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玉米淀粉日报-20260317
Yin He Qi Huo· 2026-03-17 09:32
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views - The global supply pressure of US corn has weakened, and it is expected to remain strongly volatile at the bottom. The spot price of North China corn has limited upside, while the price in Northeast China is stable. The price difference between Northeast and North China corn has widened. With the increase in wheat auctions in March, the upside of Northeast corn spot price is limited, and the May corn contract is expected to remain in high - level volatility [4][6][8]. - The number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants has increased, and the spot price of Shandong corn is weak. The spot price of starch in Northeast China is strong. The inventory of corn starch has decreased this week. The starch price depends on the corn price and downstream inventory. The by - product price is relatively strong. The spot price difference between corn and starch is at a low level. The upside of the May starch contract is limited, and it is expected to be in high - level volatility in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data - **Futures盘面**: For corn futures, C2601 closed at 2366 with a rise of 1 and a gain of 0.04%, C2605 closed at 2386 with a rise of 7 and a gain of 0.29%, C2509 closed at 2405 with a rise of 1 and a gain of 0.04%. For starch futures, CS2601 closed at 2709 with a rise of 3 and a gain of 0.11%, CS2605 closed at 2730 with a fall of 13 and a decline of 0.48%, CS2509 closed at 2740 with a fall of 5 and a decline of 0.18% [2]. - **Spot and Basis**: Corn spot prices in Qinggang, Songyuan Jiajie, Zhucheng Xingmao, Shouguang, Jinzhou Port, Nantong Port, and Guangdong Port were 2230, 2260, 2520, 2494, 2400, 2510, and 2530 respectively. Starch spot prices in Longfeng, COFCO, Yihai (Heilongjiang), Yufeng, Jinyu, Zhucheng Xingmao, and Hengren Industry and Trade were 2850, 2850, 2850, 3070, 3030, 3080, and 3060 respectively [2]. - **Price Spread**: For corn inter - period spreads, C01 - C05 was - 20 with a fall of 6, C05 - C09 was - 19 with a rise of 6, C09 - C01 was 39 with no change. For starch inter - period spreads, CS01 - CS05 was - 21 with a rise of 16, CS05 - CS09 was - 10 with a fall of 8, CS09 - CS01 was 31 with a fall of 8. For cross - variety spreads, CS09 - C09 was 335 with a fall of 6, CS01 - C01 was 343 with a rise of 2, CS05 - C05 was 344 with a fall of 20 [2]. 3.2 Market Judgment - **Corn**: Crude oil is at a high level, US corn has declined, and the global corn supply pressure has weakened. The import profit of foreign corn has increased. The northern port closing price is stable, and the Northeast corn spot price is stable. The price of North China corn has started to fall. The May corn contract is affected by auctions and shows narrow - range volatility. It is expected to be volatile in the short term [4][6]. - **Starch**: The number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants has increased, and the Shandong corn spot price is weak. The Northeast starch spot price is strong. The corn starch inventory has decreased this week. The starch price depends on the corn price and downstream inventory. The by - product price is relatively strong. The May starch contract follows the corn and shows narrow - range volatility. The upside of the starch spot price is limited, and it is expected to be in high - level volatility in the short term [7]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: The May US corn has support at 450 cents per bushel. Try to go long on the May corn contract at low prices [9]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see for the spread between the May corn and starch contracts [9]. 3.4 Corn Options - The option strategy is a short - term cumulative put strategy with rolling operations [11]. 3.5 Related Attachments - The attachments include graphs of North Port corn closing price, May corn contract basis, corn 5 - 9 spread, corn starch 5 - 9 spread, May corn starch contract basis, and May corn starch - corn contract spread [13][14][18]
小麦拍卖增量,盘面高位震荡
Yin He Qi Huo· 2026-03-13 11:13
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 3 - month USDA report is the same as last month. Due to the continued rise in crude oil this week, US corn has reached its highest level since January. The US corn 05 contract has risen to around 460 cents per bushel. The import profit of US corn and Brazilian corn is relatively high. After the Spring Festival, with the warming weather, farmers are selling more grain, and traders and downstream buyers are replenishing their stocks. Corn spot prices are rising, and port inventories are still low. However, the wheat auction volume has increased this week. It is expected that farmers will sell more grain in March, but the downstream and channel inventories are still low, so the spot price is expected to remain stable. The price difference between wheat and corn in North China has narrowed, and it is expected that the supply of North China corn will increase next week. The increase in supply at the northern ports in the short - term, combined with the increase in wheat auction volume, but the downstream inventory is still low, so the callback of the 05 corn contract is limited. Attention should be paid to the auctions of brown rice and corn, as well as the impact of rising crude oil on corn [4]. - The operating rate of starch factories has increased, downstream提货 has improved, and starch inventory has decreased, remaining lower than last year. The sharp rise in corn spot prices has led to a significant increase in starch spot prices. Starch enterprises are making good profits. It is expected that the supply of corn spot will increase next week, and by - product prices are high, so the starch spot price is expected to remain strong. The 05 corn starch contract is expected to fluctuate at a high level following corn [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Corn**: The 3 - month USDA report is flat compared to last month. Crude oil has pushed up US corn prices. The 05 contract of US corn has reached 460 cents per bushel. The import profit of US and Brazilian corn is high. After the Spring Festival, the increase in farmers' grain sales and downstream replenishment has led to an increase in corn spot prices. Although the wheat auction volume has increased this week, it is expected that the corn spot price will remain stable in March due to low downstream inventories. The price difference between wheat and corn in North China has narrowed, and it is expected that the supply of North China corn will increase next week. The increase in supply at the northern ports in the short - term and the increase in wheat auction volume will limit the callback of the 05 corn contract. Attention should be paid to the auctions of brown rice and corn and the impact of crude oil [4]. - **Starch**: The operating rate of starch factories has increased, downstream提货 has improved, and starch inventory has decreased. The sharp rise in corn prices has led to a significant increase in starch prices, and enterprises are making good profits. It is expected that the starch spot price will remain strong next week, and the 05 corn starch contract will fluctuate at a high level following corn [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: - Unilateral: Try to buy US corn 05 below 440 cents per bushel. Go long on the 05 corn contract on dips [5]. - Arbitrage: Expand the price difference between the 05 corn and starch contracts on dips [5]. - Options: Adopt a cumulative purchase strategy for the 05 corn contract after a callback [5]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis 3.2.1 International - **Crude oil drives up US corn prices**: The 3 - month US corn report shows stable yield per unit area and planting area, with a yield per unit area of 186.5 bushels per acre. This week, crude oil has continued to rise, and the 05 contract has reached a high of 460 cents per bushel. China has lowered tariffs on US agricultural products. The import cost of US Western corn in May is around 2,230 yuan per ton, and the import profit is good. As of March 12, the import profit of Brazilian corn arriving in July at Guangdong Port is 201 yuan per ton [9]. - **Increase in non - commercial net long positions in US corn and decrease in ethanol production**: As of March 5, the non - commercial net long position of US corn is 90,000 lots, showing an increase. US ethanol production has decreased. The 05 contract of US corn has risen to a phased high of 460 cents per bushel [16]. 3.2.2 Domestic - **Decrease in deep - processing and feed enterprise inventories and increase in deep - processing consumption**: As of March 11, the average corn inventory of 47 large - scale feed mills is 30.06 days, a decrease of 1.09 days compared to the previous week and a 6.73% decrease compared to the same period last year. From March 5 to March 11, 149 major corn deep - processing enterprises consumed 1.269 million tons of corn, an increase of 49,100 tons compared to the previous week. As of March 11, the corn inventory of 96 deep - processing enterprises is 3.377 million tons, a 1.75% decrease from the previous week and a 31.69% decrease compared to the same period last year. It is expected that the inventory will increase next week [20][21]. - **Increase in northern port corn inventory and decrease in southern port grain inventory**: As of March 6, the corn inventory at the four northern ports is 1.951 million tons, an increase of 224,000 tons compared to the previous week and a decrease of 3.107 million tons compared to the same period last year. The shipping volume at the four ports this week is 341,000 tons, an increase of 109,000 tons compared to the previous week. The domestic trade corn inventory at Guangdong Port is 524,000 tons, a decrease of 219,000 tons compared to the previous week; the foreign trade inventory is 172,000 tons, an increase of 23,000 tons compared to the previous week; the imported sorghum is 302,000 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons compared to the previous week; the imported barley is 740,000 tons, an increase of 101,000 tons compared to the previous week. The total grain inventory is 1.738 million tons, a decrease of 93,000 tons compared to the previous week [24]. - **Slower grain - selling progress**: As of March 12, the overall grain - selling progress of 13 provinces is 74%, a 4% increase compared to the previous week and a 6% decrease compared to the same period last year; the overall grain - selling progress of 7 provinces (Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning, Inner Mongolia, Hebei, Shandong, and Henan) is 73%, a 5% increase compared to the previous week and a 6% decrease compared to the same period last year [28]. - **Starch**: The operating rate of deep - processing enterprises has increased. From March 5 to March 12, the national corn processing volume is 598,400 tons, and the starch production is 304,900 tons, an increase of 6,600 tons compared to the previous week. The operating rate is 55.73%, an increase of 1.21% compared to the previous week. The increase in corn and by - product prices has improved enterprise profits. The profit per ton of corn in Heilongjiang is 12 yuan, an increase of 55 yuan compared to the previous week, and the profit in Shandong is 22 yuan, an increase of 56 yuan compared to the previous week. The downstream提货 is stable, and the increase in the operating rate has led to a decrease in starch inventory. As of March 11, the corn starch inventory is 1.209 million tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons compared to the previous week, a 0.82% decrease, a 0.9% increase compared to the previous month, and an 11.2% decrease compared to the same period last year [32]. - **Substitute products**: The wheat price is strong, with the arrival price in North China basically at 2,570 yuan per ton. The price difference between wheat and corn has narrowed, and the prices of North China and Northeast corn have risen, with the price difference between North China and Northeast corn expanding [39]. 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking - **Livestock and Poultry**: From March 6 to March 12, the self - breeding and self - raising profit of pigs is - 233 yuan per head, a decrease of 57 yuan per head compared to the previous week; the profit of purchasing piglets is - 144 yuan per head, a decrease of 56 yuan per head compared to the previous week. From March 5 to March 12, the breeding profit of white - feather broilers is 0.92 yuan per bird, compared to 1.04 yuan per bird last week. The egg - laying hen breeding cost is 3.62 yuan per catty, and the breeding profit is - 0.59 yuan per catty, compared to - 0.57 yuan per catty last week [43][49]. - **Deep - processing**: The operating rate of starch sugar has increased. This week, the operating rate of F55 high - fructose corn syrup is 42.55%, an increase of 10.33% compared to the previous week, and the operating rate of maltose syrup is 37.73%, an increase of 8.77% compared to the previous week. The operating rate of paper mills has increased. This week, the operating rate of corrugated paper is 67.65%, an increase of 7.28% compared to the previous week, and the operating rate of boxboard paper is 69.78%, an increase of 6.74% compared to the previous week [52].
玉米淀粉日报-20260312
Yin He Qi Huo· 2026-03-12 10:12
Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The supply pressure of U.S. corn has weakened, and crude oil is expected to oscillate at a high level. It is predicted that U.S. corn will oscillate strongly at the bottom. North China corn supply is still low, and the spot price of corn continues to rise, while the purchase price at the northern port is stable today. The price of wheat in North China continues to rise, and the price difference between Northeast and North China corn remains low. However, farmers' grain sales are expected to increase in March, so the upward space for Northeast corn spot is limited, and the 05 corn contract will maintain a high - level oscillation [7]. - The 05 U.S. corn has support at 450 cents per bushel. It is advisable to wait and see for the 05 corn contract. For the 05 corn and starch, it is recommended to widen the spread when the price is low [8][9]. - The option strategy is a short - term cumulative put strategy with rolling operations [10]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Data - Futures data: For different futures contracts such as C2601, C2605, C2509, CS2601, CS2605, CS2509, information on closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, trading volume change percentages, open interest, and open interest change percentages is provided. For example, the closing price of C2601 is 2371, with a price increase of 3 and a price increase percentage of 0.13%, a trading volume of 2,455 with a decrease of 22.04%, and an open interest of 12,128 with an increase of 4.16% [1]. - Spot price data: The spot prices and price changes of corn in different regions such as Qinggang, Songyuan Jiajie, Zhucheng Xingmao, Shouguang, Jinzhou Port, Nantong Port, and Guangdong Port are given. For example, the spot price in Qinggang is 2230 with a price increase of 10 [1]. - Starch price data: The spot prices and price changes of starch in different enterprises such as Longfeng, COFCO, Yihai (Heilongjiang), Yufeng, Jinyu, Zhucheng Xingmao, and Hengren Industry and Trade are provided. For example, the spot price of Longfeng is 2830 with no price change [4]. - Spread data: Information on corn inter - period spreads, starch inter - period spreads, and cross - variety spreads is provided. For example, the C01 - C05 spread is - 25 with a change of 2 [4]. Market Analysis - **Corn**: Crude oil prices have risen, U.S. corn prices have increased, and the global corn supply pressure has weakened. U.S. corn will continue to oscillate strongly. The import profit of foreign corn has increased, with the import price from Brazil in July at 2319 yuan. The northern port's flat - hatch price is stable at around 2410 yuan, and the spot price in the Northeast corn - producing area continues to rise. The deep - processing start - up rate has increased, and the spot price of corn continues to rise. The price difference between North China and Northeast corn remains low. Wheat and corn are being auctioned, the price of North China wheat is strong, and the price difference between wheat and corn has widened, reducing corn's cost - effectiveness. The domestic breeding demand is average, the inventory of downstream feed enterprises has increased, and the downstream has replenished stocks. The supply of Northeast corn has increased recently, and the price has continued to rise. The port inventory is low, and the purchase price at the northern port is stable today. The 05 corn contract oscillates strongly, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term. Attention should be paid to the auction policy [3][5]. - **Starch**: The number of trucks arriving at deep - processing plants in Shandong is still low, the spot price of Shandong corn is strong, and the starch price in Shandong is around 2970 yuan. The spot price of Northeast starch is also rising. This week, the corn starch inventory has decreased to 120.9 million tons, a decrease of 1 million tons from last week, with a monthly increase of 0.92% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.2%. The starch price mainly depends on the corn price and downstream stocking. The average income from by - products in the past few years has been over 600 yuan, and today the by - product contribution in Shandong is 652 yuan (713 yuan in Heilongjiang). The by - product price is relatively strong recently, higher than last year, and the spot price difference between corn and starch is at a low level. North China corn is strong in the short term, and Northeast corn is still rising. As the weather warms up, the supply of corn is expected to increase, the downstream start - up rate will increase, and the upward space for the corn spot price is limited. Enterprises are already profitable. The 05 starch contract oscillates strongly following corn, and the starch spot price is rising in the short term. It is expected that the 05 starch contract will oscillate within a narrow range in the short term [6]. Related Attachments - The report provides six figures, including the northern port's corn flat - hatch price, corn 05 contract basis, corn 5 - 9 spread, corn starch 5 - 9 spread, corn starch 05 contract basis, and corn starch 05 contract spread, which visually show the price trends and relationships of different indicators [13][14][18].
玉米淀粉日报-20260310
Yin He Qi Huo· 2026-03-10 09:58
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of US corn has weakened, and it is expected to oscillate strongly at the bottom. The supply of domestic corn is relatively tight, and the price is expected to remain high in the short term. The price of corn starch is mainly affected by the price of corn and downstream inventory. It is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [4][6][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data - **Futures Market**: The closing prices of most corn and corn starch futures contracts declined on March 10, 2026. For example, C2601 closed at 2365, down 3 (-0.13%); CS2601 closed at 2697, down 10 (-0.37%) [2]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of corn and corn starch in different regions showed different trends. The price of corn in Qinggang increased by 10 yuan, while that in Nantong Port and Guangdong Port decreased by 10 yuan. The price of starch in Yihai (Heilongjiang) increased by 50 yuan, and that in Zhucheng Xingmao and Hengren Industry and Trade increased by 10 yuan and 40 yuan respectively [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of corn and corn starch in different regions also varied. The basis of corn in Qinggang was -187, while that in Zhucheng Xingmao was 33. The basis of starch in Longfeng was 124, and that in Zhucheng Xingmao was 294 [2]. - **Spread**: The spreads of corn and corn starch showed different changes. For example, the spread of C01 - C05 was -16, up 11; the spread of CS01 - CS05 was -9, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **Corn**: The sharp decline in crude oil and the correction of US corn have reduced the global corn supply pressure. The import profit of foreign corn has increased. The spot price of corn in the northern ports and the Northeast has continued to rise. The opening rate of deep - processing in North China has increased, but the price increase space of corn is limited due to the increase in corn supply and the general domestic breeding demand. It is expected that the short - term decline space of the 05 corn futures contract is limited [4][6]. - **Starch**: The number of trucks arriving at deep - processing plants in Shandong is still low, and the spot price of starch in Shandong and the Northeast is rising. The inventory of corn starch has increased this week. The price of starch mainly depends on the price of corn and downstream inventory. It is expected that the 05 starch futures contract will oscillate at a high level in the short term [7]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: The 05 US corn has support at 440 cents per bushel. Close the short position of 05 corn and wait and see [9]. - **Arbitrage**: Go long on the spread between 05 corn and starch at a low price [10]. 3.4 Corn Options - The option strategy is a short - term put - accumulation strategy with rolling operations [11]. 3.5 Related Attachments - The attachments include multiple charts such as the closing price of corn in the northern ports, the basis of the 05 corn contract, the spread of corn 5 - 9, the spread of corn starch 5 - 9, the basis of the 05 corn starch contract, and the spread of the 05 corn starch contract [14][15][19].
玉米淀粉日报-20260309
Yin He Qi Huo· 2026-03-09 09:57
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of US corn has weakened, and the rise in crude oil has driven up the price of corn. It is expected that US corn will oscillate strongly at the bottom. The supply of North China corn remains low, and the spot price of corn continues to rise, as does the price of Northeast corn, with the purchase price of northern ports being strong today. The price of North China wheat continues to rise, and the price difference between Northeast and North China corn remains low. However, farmers are selling more grain in March, so the upside potential of the spot price of Northeast corn is expected to be limited, as is the upside potential of the 05 corn contract [8]. - The price of Shandong corn is strong, and the price of starch in Shandong and Northeast China is rising. The inventory of corn starch has increased this week. Currently, the price of starch mainly depends on the price of corn and downstream stocking. The price difference between corn and starch is at a low level. The short - term price of North China corn is strong, and the price of Northeast corn is still rising. As the weather warms up, the supply of corn is expected to increase, and the upside potential of the corn spot price is limited. The 05 starch contract followed corn and rose then fell. The spot price of starch is rising in the short term, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [7]. 3. Summary of Each Section Part 1: Data Futures Market - For corn futures, the closing prices of C2601, C2605, and C2509 are 2368, 2395, and 2416 respectively, with price increases of 17, 2, and 4, and price increase rates of 0.72%, 0.08%, and 0.17%. The trading volumes of C2601, C2605, and C2509 are 6,857, 1,545,357, and 103,172 respectively, with increase rates of 115.97%, 95.41%, and 121.04%. The open interests of C2601, C2605, and C2509 are 9,246, 1,435,081, and 123,072 respectively, with change rates of 29.97%, - 5.56%, and 0.79% [2]. - For corn starch futures, the closing prices of CS2601, CS2605, and CS2509 are 2707, 2716, and 2727 respectively, with price increases of 12, 5, and - 5, and price increase rates of 0.44%, 0.18%, and - 0.18%. The trading volumes of CS2601, CS2605, and CS2509 are 82, 130,647, and 7,064 respectively, with increase rates of 26.15%, 64.97%, and 80.07%. The open interests of CS2601, CS2605, and CS2509 are 135, 261,060, and 16,077 respectively, with change rates of 0.00%, - 1.74%, and - 2.37% [2]. Spot Market and Basis - For corn, the spot prices in Qinggang, Songyuan Jiajie, Zhucheng Xingmao, Shouguang, Jinzhou Port, Nantong Port, and Guangdong Port are 2210, 2260, 2440, 2400, 2400, 2530, and 2530 respectively. The price changes are 20, 0, 0, 0, 5, 30, and 10 respectively. The basis values are - 206, - 156, 24, - 16, 5, 114, and 114 respectively [2]. - For starch, the spot prices of Longfeng, COFCO, Yihai (Heilongjiang), Yufeng, Jinyu, Zhucheng Xingmao, and Hengren Industry and Trade are 2830, 2700, 2750, 2950, 2960, 2990, and 2900 respectively. The price changes are 50, 0, 0, 0, 20, 20, and 0 respectively. The basis values are 114, - 16, 34, 234, 244, 274, and 184 respectively [2]. Price Spreads - For corn inter - delivery spreads, C01 - C05 is - 27 with a change of 15, C05 - C09 is - 21 with a change of - 2, and C09 - C01 is 48 with a change of - 13. - For starch inter - delivery spreads, CS01 - CS05 is - 9 with a change of 7, CS05 - CS09 is - 11 with a change of 10, and CS09 - CS01 is 20 with a change of - 17. - For cross - variety spreads, CS09 - C09 is 311 with a change of - 9, CS01 - C01 is 339 with a change of - 5, and CS05 - C05 is 321 with a change of 3 [2]. Part 2: Market Analysis Corn - Affected by the sharp rise in crude oil, US corn prices have risen, and the global corn supply pressure has weakened. The import profit of foreign corn has increased, and the import price from Brazil in July is 2325 yuan. The closing prices at northern ports are strong, around 2400 yuan, and the spot prices in Northeast corn - producing areas continue to rise. The deep - processing operating rate has increased, and the supply of corn has increased on weekends. The spot price of corn continues to rise, and the price difference between North China and Northeast corn has widened. The wheat and corn auctions continue. The price of North China wheat is relatively strong, around 2550 yuan/ton, and the price difference between wheat and corn has narrowed. The domestic breeding demand will decline in March, and the inventory of downstream feed enterprises has increased. The short - term spot price of corn is relatively strong. However, the supply of Northeast corn has increased, and the upside potential of the 05 corn contract is expected to be limited [4][6]. Starch - The number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing enterprises is still low, and the spot price of Shandong corn is strong. The spot price of starch in Shandong is around 2920 yuan, and the spot price of Northeast starch is also rising. The inventory of corn starch has increased this week to 121.9 million tons, an increase of 2.1 million tons from last week, with a monthly increase rate of 1.75% and a year - on - year decrease rate of 11.4%. The current starch price mainly depends on the corn price and downstream stocking. The by - product prices are relatively strong, and the price difference between corn and starch is at a low level. The short - term price of North China corn is strong, and the price of Northeast corn is still rising. As the weather warms up, the supply of corn is expected to increase, and the upside potential of the corn spot price is limited. The 05 starch contract followed corn and rose then fell. The spot price of starch is rising in the short term, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [7]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: The 05 US corn has support at 440 cents per bushel. For the 05 corn contract, go short on short - term rallies with a light position and set a stop - loss. - Arbitrage: Go long on the spread between the 05 corn and starch contracts when the spread is low [9][10]. Part 3: Corn Options - Option strategy: Adopt a short - term put - accumulation strategy and conduct rolling operations [11]. Part 4: Related Diagrams - The report provides six diagrams, showing the closing price of northern port corn, the basis of the 05 corn contract, the price spread between the 5th and 9th corn contracts, the price spread between the 5th and 9th corn starch contracts, the basis of the 05 corn starch contract, and the price spread between the 05 corn starch and corn contracts [14][15][19].
玉米类市场周报:现货市场偏强提振,玉米期价继续上涨-20260306
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2026-03-06 09:25
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Corn futures prices continued to rise this week, with the main 2605 contract closing at 2393 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan/ton from last week. The international corn market was boosted by the escalating conflict between the US and Iran, which led to a sharp rise in international oil prices and pushed up freight rates. In the domestic market, the selling pressure risk of corn in the Northeast production area after the Spring Festival decreased, and farmers were reluctant to sell at low prices. The supply from the grass - roots level remained low, while feed - using enterprises were eager to replenish their inventories, leading to an increase in purchase prices, although the increase rate slowed down. In the North China and Huanghuai regions, the inventory of processing enterprises was further consumed during the Spring Festival, and the demand for corn procurement increased. Due to continuous rain and snow and the slow pace of grass - roots grain sales, the arrival volume at enterprise gates remained low, and the price center continued to move up [8]. - Corn starch futures also rose this week, with the main 2605 contract closing at 2667 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan/ton from last week. As the production of corn starch enterprises gradually resumed after the Spring Festival, the operating rate of the corn starch industry increased, and the supply pressure increased. The inventory continued to rise. As of March 4, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 121.9 million tons, an increase of 2.10 million tons from last week, with a weekly increase of 1.75% and a monthly increase of 1.75%, and a year - on - year decrease of 11.35%. However, the downstream demand also gradually recovered, and the order signing and shipment of enterprises improved compared with last week. Supported by the strong performance of corn, the starch market also showed a strong and volatile trend [10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Week - on - Week Summary - **Corn** - **Market Review**: The corn futures fluctuated and rose this week. The closing price of the main 2605 contract was 2393 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan/ton from last week [8]. - **Market Outlook**: The international corn market was affected by the US - Iran conflict, and the domestic market was influenced by factors such as reduced selling pressure in the Northeast, low grass - roots supply, and strong inventory replenishment demand from enterprises [8]. - **Corn Starch** - **Market Review**: The Dalian corn starch futures fluctuated and closed higher. The closing price of the main 2605 contract was 2667 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan/ton from last week [10]. - **Market Outlook**: The supply pressure increased as the operating rate rose, and the inventory continued to rise. However, the downstream demand also recovered, and the market was supported by the strong performance of corn [10]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Position Changes** - The corn futures May contract fluctuated and rose this week, with a total position of 1,519,542 lots, an increase of 44,064 lots from last week. The corn starch futures May contract also fluctuated and rose, with a total position of 265,685 lots, an increase of 34,173 lots from last week [17]. - **Top 20 Net Position Changes** - The top 20 net position of corn futures was - 204,773 this week, with little change in net short positions compared with last week. The top 20 net position of starch futures was - 23,235 this week, with a decrease in net short positions compared with last week [23]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts** - The registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn were 79,152 lots, and the registered warehouse receipts of corn starch were 12,010 lots [29]. - **Spot Price and Basis** - As of March 5, 2026, the average spot price of corn was 2413.73 yuan/ton, and the basis between the active May contract of corn and the spot average price was + 20 yuan/ton. The spot price of corn starch in Jilin was 2700 yuan/ton, and in Shandong was 2850 yuan/ton, with a slight increase this week. The basis between the May contract of corn starch and the spot price in Changchun, Jilin was - 11 yuan/ton [34][38]. - **Futures Inter - month Spread** - The 5 - 7 spread of corn was - 11 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period. The 5 - 7 spread of starch was also - 11 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period [44]. - **Futures Spread between Starch and Corn** - The spread between the May contract of starch and corn was 318 yuan/ton. As of Thursday this week, the spread between Shandong corn and corn starch was 490 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton compared with last week [53]. - **Substitute Spread** - As of March 5, 2026, the average spot price of wheat was 2537.06 yuan/ton, and the average spot price of corn was 2413.73 yuan/ton, with a wheat - corn spread of 123.33 yuan/ton. In the 9th week of 2026, the spread between tapioca starch and corn starch widened, with an average spread of 657 yuan/ton, an increase of 44 yuan/ton compared with last week [58]. 3.3. Industry Chain Situation - **Corn** - **Supply Side** - **Port Inventory**: As of February 27, 2026, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 74.3 million tons, an increase of 12.40 million tons from last week; the foreign trade inventory was 14.9 million tons, a decrease of 0.80 million tons from last week. The total corn inventory in the four northern ports was 172.7 million tons, a decrease of 0.7 million tons week - on - week; the shipping volume from the four northern ports was 23.2 million tons, a decrease of 3.10 million tons week - on - week [48]. - **Domestic Grain Sales Progress**: As of March 5, the total domestic corn sales progress was 70%, an increase of 4% from the previous week and a decrease of 5% year - on - year [60]. - **Monthly Import Volume**: In December 2025, China's corn import volume was 80.01 million tons, an increase of 45.69 million tons compared with the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 133.12%, and an increase of 24.52 million tons compared with the previous month [64]. - **Feed Enterprise Inventory**: As of March 5, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 30.25 days, a decrease of 1.04 days from last week, a week - on - week decrease of 3.32%, and a year - on - year decrease of 4.60% [68]. - **Demand Side** - **Livestock Inventory**: At the end of 2025, the national pig inventory was 429.67 million heads, an increase of 2.24 million heads compared with the end of the previous year, a growth of 0.5%. Among them, the inventory of breeding sows was 39.61 million heads, a decrease of 1.16 million heads, a decrease of 2.9% [72]. - **Breeding Profit**: As of February 27, 2026, the breeding profit of self - breeding and self - raising pigs was - 159.65 yuan/head, and the breeding profit of purchasing piglets was 20.83 yuan/head [76]. - **Processing Profit**: As of March 5, 2026, the corn starch processing profit in Jilin was - 88 yuan/ton. The corn alcohol processing profit in Henan was - 621 yuan/ton, in Jilin was - 670 yuan/ton, and in Heilongjiang was - 129 yuan/ton [81]. - **Corn Starch** - **Supply Side** - **Enterprise Inventory**: As of March 4, 2026, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions across the country was 343.7 million tons, a decrease of 10.77% [85]. - **Operating Rate and Inventory**: From February 26 to March 4, 2026, the total national corn processing volume was 58.89 million tons, an increase of 7.02 million tons from last week; the national corn starch output was 29.83 million tons, an increase of 4.84 million tons from last week; the weekly operating rate was 54.52%, an increase of 8.85% from last week. As of March 4, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 121.9 million tons, an increase of 2.10 million tons from last week, with a weekly increase of 1.75%, a monthly increase of 1.75%, and a year - on - year decrease of 11.35% [89]. 3.4. Option Market Analysis - As of March 6, the implied volatility of the options corresponding to the main 2605 contract of corn was 12.35%, a recovery of 2.29% from 10.06% last week. The implied volatility fluctuated and recovered this week, at a relatively high level compared with the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatilities [92].
玉米淀粉日报-20260224
Yin He Qi Huo· 2026-02-24 10:13
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of US corn has weakened, and it is expected to oscillate strongly at the bottom. The supply of North China corn is still low, and the spot price has risen, while the price of Northeast corn has remained stable. However, there will still be a slight selling pressure in Northeast China in March, and the price of Northeast corn will fall later, as will the 05 corn contract [8]. - The price of North China wheat is stable, and the price difference between Northeast and North China corn has widened. The 05 corn contract is expected to have limited short - term upward space [6]. - The number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants is still low, and the spot price of Shandong corn is strong. The spot price of starch in Shandong is around 2,820 yuan, and that in Northeast China is stable. The inventory of corn starch has increased this week. The spot price of starch is mainly determined by the price of corn and downstream inventory preparation. The price of by - products has started to weaken but is still higher than last year. The spot price difference between corn and starch is at a low level. The spot price of North China corn is expected to rise, and the spot price of starch will also rise in the short term, but the 05 starch contract on the futures market is expected to oscillate at a high level [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data - **Futures Market**: The closing prices of C2601, C2605, C2509, CS2601, CS2605, and CS2509 all increased, with price increases of 11, 12, 17, 20, 25, and 37 respectively, and corresponding price increase rates of 0.48%, 0.51%, 0.72%, 0.76%, 0.94%, and 1.38%. The trading volume of C2601, C2509, CS2509 increased by 43.04%, 47.64%, 41.78% respectively, while that of C2605, CS2601, CS2605 decreased by 7.37%, 53.49%, 16.90% respectively. The open interest of all contracts increased, with the increase rates ranging from 3.21% to 19.12% [2]. - **Spot and Basis**: The spot prices of corn in different regions such as Qinggang, Songyuan Jiji, Zhucheng Xingmao, etc. showed different degrees of change, with the price of Zhucheng Xingmao increasing by 10 yuan, Shouguang by 24 yuan, Jinzhou Port by 5 yuan, Nantong Port by 30 yuan, and Guangdong Port by 20 yuan. The spot prices of starch in different regions also changed, with Yufeng increasing by 10 yuan and Jinyu Corn by 40 yuan. The basis of corn and starch in different regions also varied [2]. - **Price Spreads**: In the corn inter - delivery spread, C01 - C05 was - 32 with a change of - 1, C05 - C09 was - 22 with a change of - 5, and C09 - C01 was 54 with a change of 6. In the starch inter - delivery spread, CS01 - CS05 was - 20 with a change of - 5, CS05 - CS09 was - 24 with a change of - 12, and CS09 - CS01 was 44 with a change of 17. In the cross - variety spread, CS09 - C09 was 333 with a change of 20, CS01 - C01 was 343 with a change of 9, and CS05 - C05 was 331 with a change of 13 [2]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **Corn**: The US corn market is in a narrow - range fluctuation, and the global corn supply pressure has weakened, but it is still in a bottom - oscillating state. The import profit of foreign corn has increased, and the import price from Brazil in July is 2,213 yuan. The closing price of northern ports is strong, and the spot price in the Northeast corn - producing area is stable. The supply of corn in North China is low, and the spot price has risen. The price difference between North China and Northeast corn has widened. The wheat - to - corn price difference has decreased, and the cost - effectiveness of corn has weakened. The domestic aquaculture demand will decline in March, and the inventory of downstream feed enterprises has increased. The short - term spot price of corn is relatively stable, but there will be a slight decline in March, and the short - term upward space of the 05 corn contract on the futures market is limited [4][6]. - **Starch**: The number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants is still low, and the spot price of Shandong corn is strong. The spot price of starch in Shandong is around 2,820 yuan, and that in Northeast China is stable. The inventory of corn starch has increased this week, with the factory inventory reaching 1.118 million tons, an increase of 93,000 tons from last week, a monthly increase of 4.6%, and a year - on - year decrease of 17.2%. The price of starch is mainly determined by the price of corn and downstream inventory preparation. The price of by - products has started to weaken but is still higher than last year. The spot price difference between corn and starch is at a low level. The spot price of North China corn is expected to rise, and the spot price of starch will also rise in the short term, but the 05 starch contract on the futures market is expected to oscillate at a high level [7]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - **Single - side Trading**: The 05 US corn contract has support at 430 cents per bushel. Try to short the 05 corn contract at high prices [9]. - **Arbitrage**: Go long on the spread between 05 corn and starch contracts at low prices [10]. 3.4 Corn Options - **Option Strategy**: Adopt a short - put strategy in the short term and conduct rolling operations [11]. 3.5 Relevant Attachments There are six figures in total, including the closing price of northern port corn, the basis of the 05 corn contract, the 5 - 9 spread of corn, the 5 - 9 spread of corn starch, the basis of the 05 corn starch contract, and the spread of the 05 corn starch contract, which visually show the price trends and relationships of different indicators [14][15][19].
玉米淀粉日报-20260209
Yin He Qi Huo· 2026-02-09 12:09
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The supply pressure of US corn has weakened, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly at the bottom. North China corn supply has decreased, and the spot price is relatively strong, while Northeast corn is stable. The spot price is still weak in the short - term, but the purchase price at the northern ports is strong today. The price of North China wheat is strong, and the price difference between Northeast and North China corn has widened. The market expects North China corn to be stable before the Spring Festival, while Northeast corn may face selling pressure later. Corn spot prices still have room to fall, and the 03 corn contract will also decline, but the 07 corn contract has limited downside space. The 03 starch contract is expected to fluctuate at the bottom in the short - term [4][7][9] Summary by Directory Part 1: Data - **Futures Market**: For corn futures, C2601 closed at 2257 with no change; C2605 closed at 2274, down 5 (-0.22%); C2509 closed at 2301, up 1 (0.04%). For corn starch futures, CS2601 closed at 2587, up 4 (0.15%); CS2605 closed at 2596, up 2 (0.08%); CS2509 closed at 2618, up 2 (0.08%). The trading volume and open interest of each contract also changed to varying degrees [2] - **Spot and Basis**: Corn spot prices in different regions showed different trends, with prices in some areas rising slightly. The basis of corn and starch also varied by region. The price difference of corn and starch across different periods and varieties also changed [2] Part 2: Market Judgment - **Corn**: US corn prices have fallen, but the global supply pressure has weakened, and it is still in a bottom - oscillating state. The import profit of foreign corn has increased. The ex - warehouse price at northern ports is strong, and the spot price in the Northeast is stable. The supply in North China has decreased, and the spot price is stable. The price difference between North China and Northeast corn has widened. Wheat prices are strong, and corn is still cost - effective. Domestic breeding demand is stable, and the inventory of downstream feed enterprises has increased. The market is concerned about the seasonal selling pressure of Northeast corn before the Spring Festival and the inventory - building situation of downstream enterprises [4][7] - **Starch**: The number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants has decreased, the corn spot price in Shandong is strong, and the starch price is around 2780 yuan. The starch inventory in Northeast China is stable, and the overall corn starch inventory has declined this week. The starch price mainly depends on corn price and downstream inventory - building. By - product prices are weakening but are still higher than last year. The spot price difference between corn and starch is at a low level. The 03 starch contract oscillated narrowly following corn, and the spot price is expected to stabilize in the short - term [8] - **Trading Strategies**: For single - side trading, the 03 US corn has support at 420 cents per bushel, and the 07 and 05 corn contracts can be short - bought on dips. For arbitrage, conduct a reverse spread of 3 - 7 corn and widen the spread between 05 corn and starch on dips [10] Part 3: Corn Options - Option Strategy: Adopt a short - term put - accumulation strategy with rolling operations [11] Part 4: Related Attachments - The attachments show the historical trends of North Port's corn ex - warehouse price, corn 05 contract basis, corn 5 - 9 spread, corn starch 5 - 9 spread, corn starch 05 contract basis, and corn starch 05 contract spread [15][16][17][18][20][21]
玉米周报:玉米购销进入尾声,盘面窄幅震荡-20260209
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2026-02-09 08:21
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment outlook for the corn industry is "oscillating," with short - term expectations for the corn futures market to maintain a narrow - range oscillation. After the Spring Festival, it is expected to remain range - bound, with attention to factors such as the pressure of ground - stored grain sales, policy grain release policies, import policies, and the growth of new - season wheat [5]. 2. Report's Core View - The current corn purchase and sales are nearing the end, and the futures market is in a narrow - range oscillation. The supply side is bullish, the demand side is neutral - bearish, inventory is neutral - bearish, basis/spread is bullish, profit is neutral - bullish, and valuation is neutral. Overall, the market is expected to oscillate in the short - term and after the Spring Festival [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Bullish. The current grain - selling progress at the grass - roots level has exceeded 60%, faster than the same period last year. There may be some selling pressure around the Spring Festival, but this year's grain quality is relatively dry, and the inventories of mid - and downstream enterprises are low, so the expected impact of selling pressure is limited. The planting cost in the 25/26 season decreased, with increased production in the Northeast and Northwest and decreased production in North China, and the country as a whole is expected to have a bumper harvest. The expected rent cost for corn planting in the 26/27 season is rising (for example, in Heilongjiang, it is expected to rise by 200 yuan per mu) [5]. - **Demand**: Neutral - bearish. The self - breeding and self - raising pig farming profit has turned positive, the pig inventory and weight are at a high level, and the capacity reduction is not obvious yet. The egg - poultry farming profit has recovered, and the speed of culling laying hens has slowed down. The short - term feed demand for corn is still supported. Under the expectation of capacity adjustment and policy control, the long - term feed demand is expected to shrink. Feed enterprises' inventories have increased month - on - month, and pre - festival stocking is basically over. Deep - processing enterprises' inventories have increased significantly, and pre - festival stocking is basically over. Traders have not built large - scale strategic inventories and have a certain demand for replenishing stocks [5]. - **Inventory**: Neutral - bearish. The domestic trade corn inventories at the north and south ports have increased month - on - month and are still at a low level. Feed enterprises' inventories have increased month - on - month, and deep - processing corn inventories have increased month - on - month [5]. - **Basis/Spread**: Bullish. The basis is at a relatively high level [5]. - **Profit**: Neutral - bullish. The self - breeding and self - raising profit of pigs has returned to positive, the meat - poultry farming has a small profit, and the egg - poultry farming profit has recovered. The deep - processing starch and alcohol processing profits are in the red [5]. - **Valuation**: Neutral. Considering the basis, the valuation of the corn futures market is moderately low [5]. - **Investment View**: Oscillating. Pre - festival stocking is nearing the end, and the corn futures market is expected to maintain a narrow - range oscillation in the short - term. After the Spring Festival, attention should be paid to the selling pressure of ground - stored grain, but this year's grain in the Northeast is relatively dry, and supported by the rigid demand for replenishing stocks of mid - and downstream enterprises, the expected selling pressure is limited. In addition, attention should be paid to post - festival policy grain release policies, import policy changes, and the growth of new - season wheat [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, expect range - bound movement; for arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach [5]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - The report presents multiple charts, including the basis trend of the main corn futures contract, the average prices in different markets (such as Jinzhou Port, Heilongjiang, Shandong, and Shekou Port), the open interest trends of different corn futures contracts (01, 03, 05, 09), and the spreads between different contracts (C03 - C05, C05 - C09) [7][8][13]. 3.3 Domestic Corn Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Grain - Selling Progress**: Charts show the grain - selling progress in Northeast and North China [23]. - **Port and Processing Data**: Include the arrival volume of corn at northern ports, the remaining number of vehicles for deep - processing in Shandong, the price difference between Shekou Port and Jinzhou Port, the shipping volume of corn from the four northern ports, etc. [25][28]. - **Import Data**: The import of grains in January and February decreased, and the import profit of US corn was at a high level. Charts show the monthly import volumes of sorghum, corn, and barley in China, as well as the theoretical import profit of US Gulf corn [33][34]. - **Inventory Data**: The corn inventories at the north and south ports are at a low level. Data on the inventories of feed enterprises, deep - processing enterprises, and different ports (such as Guangdong Port) are presented, as well as the inventory days of feed enterprises and the monthly feed production volume [40][47][49]. - **Livestock and Poultry Farming Data**: Include the self - breeding and self - raising profit of pigs, the profit of purchasing and fattening pigs, the average price and weight of commercial pig slaughter, the breeding profit of white - feather broilers, the in - production inventory of parent - stock chickens, the egg - chicken farming profit, the age of culled laying hens, etc. [51][59][65]. - **Deep - Processing Data**: Deep - processing corn consumption has declined, and deep - processing corn inventories have increased significantly. The processing profit of starch is in the red, and starch inventories are being depleted. The开机 rate of alcohol has declined, and the processing profit is at a low level. There are also data on the开机 rate and profit of related downstream industries such as beverages, paper - making [68][73][97]. 3.4 Foreign Corn Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **January Report**: The corn stock - to - consumption ratios of major exporting countries in the 2025/26 season have been raised. The report shows the corn stock - to - consumption ratios of the US and other major exporting countries [116]. - **Export Data**: US corn export sales have performed well, and the report presents the export sales volume, cumulative export sales volume, and export sales volume to China of US corn [123].
玉米类市场周报:市场多空交织,玉米期价维持震荡-20260206
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2026-02-06 09:42
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The corn futures market is experiencing a narrow - range oscillation. The international market is affected by the loose supply - demand pattern of US corn, with potential import pressure. In the domestic market, the sales of Northeast corn are over 60%, and the market trading is gradually weakening. The price of Northeast corn is slightly weak, while that in North China and Huanghuai regions is mainly fluctuating slightly. The corn starch futures market is also oscillating. As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream提货 is active, and the industry inventory is declining [8][10]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Corn**: The main 2603 contract of corn futures closed at 2,274 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton from last week. The international corn price is restricted by the loose supply - demand situation in the US. In the domestic market, Northeast farmers have sold over 60% of their corn, and market trading is weakening. The price of Northeast corn is slightly weak, and that in North China and Huanghuai regions is fluctuating slightly. The futures price has dropped from its short - term high [8]. - **Corn Starch**: The main 2603 contract of Dalian corn starch futures closed at 2,540 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton from last week. As the Spring Festival is approaching, logistics is about to stop, downstream is actively picking up goods, and the inventory is decreasing. As of February 4, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 995,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 33,000 tons, a week - on - week decline of 3.21%, a month - on - month decline of 3.21%, and a year - on - year decline of 24.85%. The short - term strategy is to wait and see [10]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Position Changes**: The March contract of corn futures oscillated up and down this week, with a total position of 504,926 hands, a decrease of 369,773 hands from last week. The March contract of corn starch futures oscillated slightly up, with a total position of 126,882 hands, a decrease of 30,699 hands from last week [16]. - **Top 20 Net Position Changes**: The top 20 net position of corn futures this week was - 120,101, compared with - 187,331 last week, and the net short position decreased. The top 20 net position of starch futures this week was - 28,786, compared with - 27,519 last week, and the net short position increased [23]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn were 60,440, and those of corn starch were 11,611 [29]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: As of February 5, 2026, the average spot price of corn was 2,368.82 yuan/ton, and the basis between the active March contract of corn futures and the average spot price was + 94 yuan/ton. The spot price of corn starch in Jilin was 2,700 yuan/ton, and in Shandong was 2,790 yuan/ton. The basis between the March contract of corn starch futures and the spot price in Changchun, Jilin was 160 yuan/ton [34][38]. - **Futures Inter - month Spread**: The 3 - 5 spread of corn was - 5 yuan/ton, at a relatively high level in the same period. The 3 - 5 spread of starch was - 54 yuan/ton, also at a relatively high level in the same period [43]. - **Futures Spread between Starch and Corn**: The spread between the March contracts of starch and corn was 266 yuan/ton. As of Thursday this week, the spread between Shandong corn and corn starch was 434 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/ton [52]. - **Substitute Spread**: As of February 5, 2026, the average spot price of wheat was 2,531.67 yuan/ton, and that of corn was 2,368.82 yuan/ton, with the wheat - corn spread at 162.85 yuan/ton. In the 6th week of 2026, the average spread between tapioca starch and corn starch was 575 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2 yuan/ton [57]. 3. Industry Chain Situation Corn - **Supply Side** - **Port Inventory**: As of January 30, 2026, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 582,000 tons, an increase of 241,000 tons from last week; the foreign trade inventory was 122,000 tons, a decrease of 42,000 tons from last week. The total corn inventory in the four northern ports was 1.732 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 101,000 tons; the shipping volume of the four northern ports in the week was 706,000 tons, the same as last week [47]. - **Domestic Corn Sales Progress**: As of February 5, the overall sales progress of domestic corn was 63%, a week - on - week increase of 3% and a year - on - year increase of 5%. The sales progress in Northeast China was 64%, a week - on - week increase of 4% and a year - on - year increase of 8% [59]. - **Monthly Import Arrivals**: In December 2025, China's total corn imports were 800,100 tons, an increase of 456,900 tons compared with 343,200 tons in the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 133.12%, and a month - on - month increase of 245,200 tons compared with 554,900 tons in the previous month [63]. - **Feed Enterprise Corn Inventory Days**: As of February 5, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 32.59 days, an increase of 0.66 days from last week, a week - on - week increase of 2.07%, and a year - on - year increase of 6.89% [67]. - **Demand Side** - **Pig and Sows Inventory**: At the end of 2025, the national pig inventory was 429.67 million, an increase of 2.24 million from the end of last year, a growth of 0.5%. Among them, the sows inventory was 39.61 million, a decrease of 1.16 million, a decline of 2.9% [71]. - **Breeding Profit**: As of January 30, 2026, the breeding profit of self - breeding and self - raising pigs was 25.1 yuan/head, and that of purchasing piglets was 124.13 yuan/head [75]. - **Starch and Alcohol Enterprise Profit**: As of February 5, 2026, the corn starch processing profit in Jilin was - 71 yuan/ton. The corn alcohol processing profit in Henan was - 659 yuan/ton, in Jilin was - 754 yuan/ton, and in Heilongjiang was - 194 yuan/ton [80]. Corn Starch - **Supply Side** - **Enterprise Inventory**: As of February 4, 2026, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions across the country was 5.127 million tons, an increase of 16.39% [84]. - **Starch Enterprise Startup Rate and Inventory**: From January 29 to February 4, 2026, the total national corn processing volume was 614,100 tons, a decrease of 17,200 tons from last week; the national corn starch output was 316,200 tons, a decrease of 12,100 tons from last week; the weekly startup rate was 57.79%, a decrease of 2.2% from last week. As of February 4, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 995,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 33,000 tons, a week - on - week decline of 3.21%, a month - on - month decline of 3.21%, and a year - on - year decline of 24.85% [88]. 4. Options Market Analysis - As of February 6, the main 2603 contract of corn oscillated up and down, and the corresponding implied volatility of options was 10.57%, a slight decrease of 0.22% from 10.79% last week. The implied volatility changed little this week and was at a slightly higher level than the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatilities [91].