1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Corn futures closed higher in a volatile manner this week. The main 2601 contract closed at 2,195 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from last week. The USDA report is slightly bearish, and the domestic corn market has different situations in different regions. The short - term suggestion is to wait and see [8]. - Corn starch futures also closed higher in a narrow - range volatile manner. The main 2601 contract closed at 2,512 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton from last week. With sufficient raw material supply, the industry's operating rate is rising, but the demand is good and the inventory is decreasing. The short - term suggestion is to wait and see [10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Highlights Summary 3.1.1. Corn - **Market Review**: The main 2601 contract of corn futures closed at 2,195 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from last week [8]. - **Market Outlook**: The USDA report shows that the US corn production is slightly bearish. In the domestic market, the purchase price in the Northeast is rising due to reduced supply, but the logistics is poor. In the North China and Huanghuai regions, farmers are reluctant to sell, and the price increase of deep - processing enterprises has slowed down. The short - term suggestion is to wait and see [8]. 3.1.2. Corn Starch - **Market Review**: The main 2601 contract of corn starch futures closed at 2,512 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton from last week [10]. - **Market Outlook**: With the increase in new - season corn supply, the industry's operating rate is rising, but the demand is good and the inventory is decreasing. The short - term suggestion is to wait and see [10]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market 3.2.1. Futures Price and Position Changes - The 1 - month contract of corn futures closed higher in a volatile manner, with a total position of 949,440 lots, an increase of 2,138 lots from last week. The 1 - month contract of corn starch futures also closed higher in a volatile manner, with a total position of 236,928 lots, a decrease of 1,007 lots from last week [16]. 3.2.2. Top Twenty Net Position Changes - The top twenty net position of corn futures was - 108,473 this week, compared with - 121,652 last week, with a slight decrease in net short positions. The top twenty net position of starch futures was - 43,094 this week, compared with - 53,346 last week, with a slight decrease in net short positions [22]. 3.2.3. Futures Warehouse Receipts - The registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn were 68,764 lots, and the registered warehouse receipts of corn starch were 11,710 lots [28]. 3.2.4. Spot Price and Basis - As of November 20, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2,278.82 yuan/ton, and the basis between the active 1 - month contract of corn and the spot average price was + 83 yuan/ton. The spot price of corn starch in Jilin was 2,600 yuan/ton, and in Shandong was 2,800 yuan/ton, with a slight recovery this week. The basis between the 1 - month contract of corn starch and the spot price in Changchun, Jilin was 88 yuan/ton [33][37]. 3.2.5. Futures Inter - month Spread - The 1 - 3 spread of corn was + 0 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period. The 1 - 3 spread of starch was + 5 yuan/ton, also at a medium level in the same period [43]. 3.2.6. Futures Spread between Starch and Corn - The spread between the 1 - month contract of starch and corn was 317 yuan/ton. As of Thursday this week, the spread between Shandong corn and corn starch was 500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 24 yuan/ton compared with last week [52]. 3.2.7. Substitute Spread - As of November 20, 2025, the average spot price of wheat was 2,503.67 yuan/ton, and the average spot price of corn was 2,278.82 yuan/ton, with a wheat - corn spread of 224.85 yuan/ton. In the 46th week of 2025, the average spread between cassava starch and corn starch was 440 yuan/ton, an increase of 118 yuan/ton compared with last week [57]. 3.3. Industrial Chain Situation 3.3.1. Corn - **Supply Side** - **Inventory at Ports**: As of November 14, 2025, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 27.3 tons, a decrease of 18.10 tons from last week; the foreign trade inventory was 35.5 tons, a decrease of 5.70 tons from last week. The corn inventory in the four northern ports was 117 tons, an increase of 9.9 tons week - on - week; the shipping volume of the four northern ports was 40 tons, a decrease of 18.20 tons week - on - week [47]. - **Selling Progress**: As of November 20, the total selling progress of domestic corn was 27%, an increase of 3% from last week and 2% year - on - year [59]. - **Monthly Import Volume**: In September 2025, China's corn import volume was 56,562.26 tons, a decrease of 256,532.84 tons (81.93%) year - on - year, and an increase of 20,404.55 tons month - on - month [63]. - **Feed Enterprise Inventory Days**: As of November 20, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 26.23 days, an increase of 0.62 days from last week, a 2.42% week - on - week increase, and a 9.58% year - on - year decrease [67]. - **Demand Side** - **Livestock Inventory**: At the end of the third quarter, the national pig inventory was 436.8 million heads, an increase of 9.86 million heads (2.3%) year - on - year and 12.33 million heads (2.9%) quarter - on - quarter. The inventory of breeding sows was 40.35 million heads, a decrease of 280,000 heads (0.7%) year - on - year and 90,000 heads (0.2%) quarter - on - quarter [71]. - **Breeding Profit**: As of November 14, 2025, the breeding profit of self - breeding and self - raising pigs was - 114.81 yuan/head, and the breeding profit of purchased piglets was - 205.64 yuan/head [75]. - **Processing Profit**: As of November 20, 2025, the corn starch processing profit in Jilin was 28 yuan/ton. As of November 21, 2025, the corn alcohol processing profit in Henan was - 434 yuan/ton, in Jilin was - 549 yuan/ton, and in Heilongjiang was - 299 yuan/ton [80]. 3.3.2. Corn Starch - **Supply Side** - **Enterprise Inventory**: As of November 19, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 272.7 tons, a decrease of 0.29% [84]. - **Operating Rate and Inventory**: From November 13 to 19, 2025, the national corn processing volume was 61.24 tons, a decrease of 1.95 tons from last week; the national corn starch output was 31.5 tons, a decrease of 1.34 tons from last week; the weekly operating rate was 60.89%, a decrease of 2.59% from last week. As of November 19, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 110.9 tons, a decrease of 2.40 tons from last week, a 2.12% weekly decrease, a 1.68% monthly decrease, and a 25.59% year - on - year increase [88]. 3.4. Option Market Analysis As of November 21, the implied volatility of the options corresponding to the main 2601 contract of corn was 8.42%, up 0.46% from last week's 7.96%. The implied volatility rebounded this week and was slightly lower than the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatilities [91].

只要12月合约维持在上周低点4.2625美元上方，跌势可能受限;但上周4.4275美元的双顶高点仍可能是价格峰值。 Barchart数据显示，周三当月全国现金玉米均价下跌近7美分至3.9125美元。周三现金均价较12月期货低约38.5美分，较上周39.25美分的价差有所 收窄。 尽管本周价格回落，玉米市场仍因创纪录的出口需求保持看涨态势。分析师皮尔森指出："玉米是美国的王牌，我们正引领行业。" 12月玉米期货隔夜尾盘上涨0.5美分至4.3025美元，此前周三下跌7美分至4.2975美元，创11月10日以来最低收盘价。3月合约上涨1美分至4.4250美 元，周三曾下跌8美分至四周收盘低点。 玉米期货隔夜窄幅震荡，延续横盘格局。若大豆价格未再现上涨，该格局或将持续至下周感恩节假期。周三12月合约收盘跌破200日简单移动平 均线(当前位于4.35美元)，同时跌破10日及20日均线(分别为4.3275美元和4.3175美元)。 玉米期货仍获得坚实支撑：现货市场走强、出口旺盛及收割压力缓解。美国农业部本周早些时候报告称，截至上周日收割进度达91%，低于上年 同期的98%，也略低于五年均值94%。 但价格上行空间可能受限 ...

Corn futures closed the Wednesday session under pressure, as contracts were down 7 to 8 cents across most months. The CmdtyView national average Cash Corn price was down 6 3/4 cents at $3.91 1/4. Outside markets added pressure, with crude oil down $1.15 and the dollar index up $0.606. EIA data from this morning showed a rebound of 16,000 barrels per day to 1.091 million bpd in the week ending on November 14. Stocks of ethanol were up 88,000 barrels to 22.307 million barrels. Exports slipped by 12,000 bpd ...

玉米现货上涨 盘面偏强震荡 银河农产品 研究员：刘大勇 期货从业证号：F03107370 投资咨询证号：Z0018389 目录 | 第一章 | 综合分析与交易策略 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 第二章 | 核心逻辑分析 | 4 | | 第三章 | 周度数据追踪 | 11 | GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 221/221/221 208/218/234 综合分析与交易策略 玉米：美玉米预计仍会下调单产，但是产量处于高位，美玉米本周430美分/蒲附近震荡，短期美玉米窄幅偏强震荡，关注今晚报告，预计美玉米12合约420 美分/蒲支撑较强。中美关系缓和，中国进口美玉米配额内关税11%，高粱为12%，但美玉米进口仍无利润。目前市场焦点仍然是农户卖粮节奏，预计11月东北玉 米仍有卖压。短期东北玉米陆续上市，但下游刚需补库，东北玉米偏强，华北玉米上量减少，玉米现货偏强震荡，最近华北小麦种植接近尾声，预计玉米下周会 上量。预计短期北港收购价2120元/吨附近有支持。预计01玉米 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The live hog price is oscillating, and the corn futures market is oscillating and rebounding. The short - term live hog price may stabilize, and the corn market is in a supply - demand game stage with suggestions to participate in the short - term trading [3][5][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Live Hogs - Futures: Last week, the live hog futures were in a low - level oscillation. The LH2601 contract closed at 11,865 yuan/ton, a 0.08% decline from the previous week's settlement price [5] - Spot: The national average market price of outer three - yuan live hogs was 11.98 yuan/kg, a week - on - week decrease of 0.53 yuan/kg [5] - Profit: As of November 7, the self - breeding and self - raising live hog breeding profit was - 89.21 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 0.12 yuan/head; the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 175.54 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 4.18 yuan/head; the pig - grain ratio was 5.53, a week - on - week decrease of 0.01 [5] - Market situation: The national live hog spot price stopped rising and fell last week. The market supply increased, but the downstream demand was insufficient. However, as the price dropped again, the slaughter acquisition sentiment improved, and the retail farmers' resistance to price cuts was strong. The short - term price may stabilize [5] Corn - Futures: Last week, the corn futures were oscillating strongly. The C2601 contract closed at 2,149 yuan/ton, a 1.46% increase from the previous week's settlement price [6] - Spot: The national average spot price of corn was 2,238.53 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1.47 yuan/ton. Different ports had different price changes [6] - Consumption: From October 30 to November 5, 2025, 149 major corn deep - processing enterprises consumed 1.3818 million tons of corn, a week - on - week increase of 0.0286 million tons. The corn starch industry's开机率 increased, while the alcohol industry's开机率 decreased [7] - Inventory: As of November 5, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 2.795 million tons, a decrease of 1.13%. As of November 7, the total corn inventory of the four northern ports was about 1.02 million tons, and the corn inventory in Guangdong ports was 0.87 million tons [7] - Market situation: The decline of the national corn spot price slowed down last week. The market is in the new grain listing stage, with the purchase scope of the State Reserve Grain Corporation expanding. The downstream low - inventory enterprises have restocking needs, but the power to continuously raise prices is limited. The short - term corn market is in a supply - demand game, and the futures market is oscillating and rebounding [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Corn: The US corn is expected to have a high yield, but the yield per unit may be further reduced later. The 12 - contract of US corn has strong support at 400 cents per bushel and will fluctuate narrowly in the short term. The focus of the market is on the grain - selling rhythm in Northeast China, with expected selling pressure in November. Northeast corn is weak in the short term, while the supply in North China is increasing. The spot price of corn is oscillating at the bottom. The 01 corn futures will oscillate at the bottom with limited short - term rebound, and the 05 is expected to oscillate strongly [4][5]. - Starch: The operating rate of starch factories is rising, but downstream demand is weak, resulting in an increase in inventory. The spot price of starch is relatively weak, and there is still room for the spot price to fall with the large - scale listing of new corn. The 01 corn starch will follow the corn to oscillate at the bottom [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Corn Situation**: The US corn is expected to see a yield per unit reduction, but the yield is high. The 12 - contract of US corn has strong support at 420 cents per bushel. There is no profit in importing US corn. The market focus is on the Northeast selling rhythm, with expected selling pressure in November. Northeast corn is weak, North China's supply is increasing, and the spot price is at the bottom. The North Port purchase price may fall to around 2070 yuan/ton. The 01 corn futures will oscillate at the bottom with limited rebound, and the 05 is expected to oscillate strongly [4]. - **Starch Situation**: The operating rate of starch factories is rising, downstream demand is weak, and inventory is at a historical high. The spot price of starch is relatively weak, and there is still room for it to fall. The 01 corn starch will follow the corn to oscillate at the bottom [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Try to buy the 12 - contract of US corn below 420 cents per bushel. Long - term buy the 05 corn below 2220. Try to buy 01 corn and sell 01 starch, and shrink the spread when it is high. Adopt the strategy of accumulating purchases for the 05 corn at low prices [5]. 3.2 Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis 3.2.1 International Market - **Supply and Demand**: According to the USDA's September report, although the yield per unit of US corn may be further reduced, the overall supply is still loose. The ending stocks of global and US corn have slightly decreased. The import tariffs of US corn and sorghum in China have been adjusted, but there is still no profit in importing US corn [8][11]. - **Market Position and Ethanol Production**: As of September 23, the non - commercial net short position of US corn increased, and ethanol production increased. The 12 - contract of US corn oscillates around 430 cents per bushel [17]. 3.2.2 Domestic Market - **Inventory and Consumption**: Feed enterprise corn inventory increased but is lower than the same period last year. Deep - processing consumption increased, and inventory decreased slightly but is expected to increase next week. North Port corn inventory increased, and South Port grain inventory decreased [21][22][25]. - **Grain - Selling Progress**: The grain - selling progress is faster than last year. The overall progress of 13 provinces is 22%, 3% higher than the same period last year; the progress of 7 provinces is 18%, 2% higher than the same period last year [28]. - **Starch Market**: The operating rate of starch factories increased, downstream demand was weak, inventory increased significantly year - on - year, and enterprise profits decreased [32]. - **Substitute Market**: The wheat price is basically stable, and the price difference between wheat and corn has widened [39]. 3.3 Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - **Livestock and Poultry Breeding**: From October 30 to November 6, the self - breeding and self - raising profit of pigs was - 35 yuan per head, a decrease of 10 yuan per head from last week; the profit of purchasing piglets was - 117 yuan per head, an increase of 13 yuan per head from last week. The breeding profit of white - feather broilers was - 0.31 yuan per bird, and the egg - laying hen breeding profit was - 0.52 yuan per catty [48][54]. - **Starch Downstream Consumption**: The operating rate of starch sugar and paper mills increased. The operating rate of F55 high - fructose syrup was 40.67%, an increase of 2.62% from last week; the operating rate of maltose syrup was 43.09%, an increase of 1.48% from last week. The operating rate of corrugated paper was 69.9%, an increase of 0.73% from last week; the operating rate of boxboard paper was 71.47%, an increase of 0.63% from last week [57]. - **Prices of Corn and Substitutes**: The price of wheat in North China is around 2490 yuan/ton, and the price difference between wheat and corn has widened [39].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The US corn is expected to remain in a narrow - range oscillation. The spot price of domestic corn still has room to decline, and the 01 corn contract is likely to continue to fall. The corn starch spot price is expected to decline later, and the 01 starch contract on the short - term disk is expected to oscillate at the bottom [7][5][6] Summary by Directory First Part: Data - **Futures Market Data**: The closing prices of different corn and corn starch futures contracts showed varying degrees of increase, with the increase ranging from 0.35% to 0.93%. The trading volume also had significant growth, with the increase rate ranging from 44.48% to 89.04%. The changes in the open interest were relatively small, with an increase or decrease range of - 1.33% to 6.00% [1] - **Spot Market Data**: The spot prices of corn in different regions such as Qinggang, Songyuan Jiji, and Zhucheng Xingmao were provided, along with their price changes. The spot prices of starch from different manufacturers like Longfeng, COFCO, and Cargill were also given, with no price changes on that day [1] - **Basis and Spread Data**: The basis of corn and corn starch, as well as the spreads between different futures contracts (including corn inter - period spreads, starch inter - period spreads, and cross - variety spreads) and their price changes were presented [1][4] Second Part: Market Judgment - **Corn**: The US corn rebounded due to the easing of Sino - US relations, but the production remained high, resulting in a narrow - range oscillation. The import profit of foreign corn decreased. The spot price of corn in the Northeast was stable, while the supply in North China increased, causing the spot price to decline. The domestic breeding demand was stable, but the downstream feed enterprises had low inventory. The 01 corn contract showed a strong oscillation, and the spot basis weakened. The spot price of corn still had room to decline in the short term [3][5] - **Starch**: The number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants increased, and the spot price of corn in Shandong was stable. The starch inventory increased this week, with a monthly increase of 0.89% and a year - on - year increase of 33.26%. The starch price was mainly affected by the corn price and downstream stocking. The by - product price was strong, and the enterprise profit was good. The 01 starch contract followed the corn to oscillate strongly, and it was expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short term [6] - **Trading Strategy**: The US corn is expected to continue to narrow - range oscillate. The spot price of North China corn is relatively stable, while the Jilin corn is being listed in large quantities, putting pressure on the spot price. It is recommended to short the 05 and 01 corn contracts on a short - term basis and try to narrow the spread between the 01 corn and starch contracts when the spread is high [7][8] Third Part: Corn Options - The option strategy is a short - term strategy of accumulating puts and calls, with rolling operations [10] Fourth Part: Related Attachments - The attachments include various graphs showing the spot prices of corn in different regions, the basis of corn 01 contract, the spreads between different corn and corn starch contracts, and the basis and spreads of the corn starch 01 contract [12][14][18]

Group 1: Report General Information - The report is titled "Corn System Data Daily" and is from the Agricultural Products Research Center of ITC Futures Research Institute, written by Huang Xianglan on November 6, 2025 [3][4] Group 2: Market Data Summary Spot Market - Corn spot prices in various regions show different trends. For example, the price in Henan - Zhengzhou increased by 20 yuan to 2220 yuan, while the price in Jilin - Changchun decreased by 10 yuan to 2060 yuan. Corn starch spot prices in Jilin remained at 2550 yuan, and wheat spot prices in Anhui remained at 2517 yuan [5] Futures Market - The closing price of the corn main contract was 2115 yuan, down 5 yuan; the closing price of the corn starch main contract was 2420 yuan, up 8 yuan. The closing price of US corn was 430.75 cents per bushel, with an estimated profit of 96.03 yuan per ton for imported US corn [5] Spread and Inventory Data - The spread between starch and corn (main continuous) was 305, and the spread between starch and corn (Jilin spot average) was 490. North Port corn inventory was 852 thousand tons, and Guangdong Port's domestic and foreign trade corn inventories were 193 thousand tons and 194 thousand tons respectively. Deep - processing corn inventories in the Northeast and North China were 1.926 million tons and 685 thousand tons respectively [5] Group 3: Supply and Demand Analysis Supply - Northeast production areas face concentrated supply pressure, and there is also pressure to store poor - quality damp grain in North China. The 2025/2026 planting cost continues to decline, the sown area is stable or slightly decreasing, the yield per unit is good, and there is an overall expectation of a bumper harvest. Imported grain supply is shrinking due to policy restrictions [5] Demand - In the short - term, livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory, supporting feed demand. However, current breeding profits are in the red, and national policies may control pig inventory and weight, which may affect long - term supply. Feed enterprises have a rigid demand for replenishing inventory, and deep - processing enterprises have seasonal inventory - building needs, but they tend to lower prices for low - quality grain [5] Group 4: Inventory Situation - Due to good shipping demand, the inventory accumulation speed at North Ports is slow, and the corn inventory at South Ports has rebounded from a low level. With the addition of new - season corn, ports are expected to be in an inventory - accumulation stage. Feed enterprise inventories are at a low level, and deep - processing corn inventories are seasonally accumulating [5] Group 5: Market Outlook - In the short - term, North Port prices are relatively firm, but both futures and spot prices will face selling pressure tests later. The market is expected to show a volatile bottom - building trend. Attention should be paid to the rhythm of traders' grain purchases and policy changes [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The U.S. corn market is in a narrow - range oscillation. The import profit of foreign corn has declined, and the domestic corn spot has different trends in different regions. The short - term corn spot still has room to fall. The 01 corn futures have limited rebound space [4][6][8]. - The corn starch inventory has decreased this week. The starch price depends on corn price and downstream stocking. The enterprise profit is good due to the large decline in corn price. The 01 starch futures are expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Directory Part 1: Data - **Futures Market**: For corn futures, C2601 closed at 2141 with a 0.51% increase, C2605 at 2244 with a 0.76% increase, and C2509 at 2263 with a 0.44% increase. For corn starch futures, CS2601 closed at 2453 with a 0.53% increase, CS2605 at 2558 with a 0.39% increase, and CS2509 at 2601 with a 0.46% increase [2]. - **Spot and Basis**: Corn spot prices in different regions had different changes, with prices in Qinggang falling by 5, and in Zhucheng Xingmao rising by 52. Starch spot prices in most regions remained stable, except for Yufeng which decreased by 30. The basis of corn and starch also varied in different regions [2]. - **Spread**: The spreads of corn and corn starch futures contracts and cross - variety spreads had different changes. For example, C01 - C05 was - 103 with a - 6 change, and CS01 - CS05 was - 105 with a 3 change [2]. Part 2: Market Judgment - **Corn**: The U.S. corn market is affected by the high - yield situation and the easing of Sino - U.S. relations. The import profit of foreign corn has declined. The domestic corn market has different trends in different regions. The short - term corn spot still has room to fall, and the market is concerned about the selling pressure of Jilin corn at the end of October [4][6]. - **Starch**: The number of vehicles arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants has decreased, and the corn starch inventory has declined. The starch price is mainly affected by corn price and downstream stocking. The enterprise profit is good, but the corn starch spot may fall later [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: The U.S. corn is expected to oscillate narrowly. The 05 and 01 corn long positions should be closed and wait and see. The spread between 01 corn and starch can be tried to shrink when it is high [8][9]. Part 3: Corn Options - The option strategy is a short - term cumulative put and call strategy with rolling operations [11]. Part 4: Related Attachments - There are six figures, including the spot price of corn in different regions, the basis of corn 01 contract, the spreads of corn 1 - 5 and corn starch 1 - 5, the basis of corn starch 01 contract, and the spread of corn starch 01 contract [13][15][20].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The impact of new - season corn in October has been effectively released, with prices hitting the bottom and rebounding. In November, the supply - side pressure will ease, but the supply level remains high [2]. - The domestic corn production increase trend is certain, and the market continues to digest the price pressure brought by the increase. The price is mainly in the bottom - shock stage. The probability of forming an important bottom in the price is relatively high in the fourth - quarter supply - peak period [8]. - In 2026, the pig production capacity control measures may gradually show results, which may have a negative impact on the corn feed demand situation, while the deep - processing demand situation is stable [8]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - **Supply - side situation**: The national autumn grain harvest is over 85%. Corn harvest is basically completed except in some late - harvest areas. The supply is still in a loose period, and the most obvious impact stage of concentrated listing on corn prices may have ended in October. The supply pressure in November will ease, but the supply level remains high [2]. - **Price performance**: Last week, the spot price was in a stable consolidation stage after the first - round impact of new - season grain sources. The corn futures price showed a bottom - hitting and rebounding trend, and the starch market was relatively stable [2]. - **Trading logic**: In the short - term, the domestic corn price is mainly in the bottom - shock stage. In the long - term, the domestic corn supply - demand contradiction has eased, and the price is likely to form an important bottom in the fourth quarter. However, in 2026, the pig production capacity control may affect the corn feed demand [8]. 1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Trend judgment**: The current futures price is in the second - round bottom - testing process, and the 2100 - yuan mark support is effective in the short - term. It is recommended to close short positions and wait and see when entering the 2050 - 2100 - yuan range. Options can consider selling options based on the 2050 - 2230 - yuan range shock [9]. - **Basis, spread, and hedging arbitrage strategies**: The basis spread has little change, and no strategy is recommended. The 1 - 5 spread of corn has narrowed, and the spread structure is relatively steep. It is not suitable for hedging in the raw material and feed demand ends for now. Pay attention to the buy - starch and sell - corn arbitrage operation [9][12]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price range forecast**: The price range of corn is 2050 - 2200 yuan, and that of starch is 2350 - 2550 yuan [21]. - **Risk strategies**: Different strategies are recommended for inventory management and procurement management, such as shorting corn futures, selling call options, selling put options, and buying far - month contracts [21]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Time 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive information**: The state reserve continues to purchase to support the market, the North China purchase and sales have recovered, the spot price is stable, the agricultural product trade situation is expected to improve, the cold weather is conducive to grain storage, and the deep - processing acquisition willingness is strong [25]. - **Negative information**: The corn market harvest is gradually ending, but the new - grain listing level is high, and the price pressure is still large [23]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Event Attention - Pay attention to the auction purchase transaction situation of China Grain Reserves Corporation, the price - support strength of the state reserve acquisition in the Northeast, and whether the corn report guidance affected by the US government shutdown can be restored [26]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Fund Interpretation - **Domestic market**: The corn futures price showed a bottom - hitting and rebounding trend last week, with the main 01 contract slightly down 3 yuan/ton. The starch market was relatively stable, and the main 01 contract of starch was down 1 yuan/ton, performing slightly stronger than the corn disk [2][25]. - **Fund flow**: The total position of the corn 01 contract increased, and the trading volume decreased. The total position and trading volume of the starch 01 contract were basically the same as the previous week [25]. - **Basis and spread structure**: The basis structure changed little, and the term - spread structure of corn was still relatively steep. The near - far - month spread slightly shrank. Pay attention to the buy - starch and sell - corn arbitrage operation [32][39][55]. 3.2 External Market - The CBOT corn futures closed higher last week, but the futures price fell from the short - term high due to the disappointment of bullish expectations. The US spot corn harvest is in the final stage, and the market is waiting for relevant data guidance [58]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking - **Planting profit**: The planting profit is better than last year, especially in the Northeast and other yield - increasing areas [64]. - **Trading profit**: As the corn price stabilizes, traders are cautious in building inventories, and there is a small amount of trading profit [64]. - **Deep - processing profit**: The corn starch profit continues to recover, while the profit of the corn - to - ethanol industry has significantly declined [64]. - **Disk profit**: The basis of Jinzhou Port is neutral, and the disk profit is not obvious. It is not suitable to enter the market for hedging, but enterprises with low inventory - building costs can pay attention to far - month hedging [64]. 4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking The import profit of corn has decreased due to the rise in the external market [66]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - **China's corn supply - demand balance sheet**: The sown area, output, and total supply of corn have increased in recent years. The consumption is relatively stable, and the annual surplus has fluctuated [70]. - **Global corn supply - demand balance sheet**: The global corn supply and demand are basically balanced, but the inventory - consumption ratio has decreased [71]. 5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - **Domestic supply**: In November, the corn supply is in the stage of declining from the peak. The selling pressure will decrease with the drop in temperature in the Northeast. The import volume is expected to remain at a low level [73]. - **Inventory situation**: The inventory of northern ports has stopped rising, and the inventory of southern ports has stopped falling and rebounded. The overall low inventory provides space for later corn purchase and sales activities [75]. - **Foreign corn**: The US corn futures price rose, but the lack of corn purchase commitments in the Sino - US trade agreement limited its upward space. The impact on China is limited [77]. 5.3 Demand - Side and Deduction - **Feed demand**: It is expected to remain at a high level in the fourth quarter. The pig breeding profit has recovered, but the pig production capacity reduction may affect the corn feed demand in 2026 [79]. - **Deep - processing demand**: The fourth quarter is the traditional consumption peak season for corn deep - processing products. The low - price corn attracts downstream enterprises to increase their start - up rates, and the consumption of corn is expected to increase [83].