Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report [2] 2. Core Viewpoint The new grain sales have slowed down, and the remaining grain after the Spring Festival is still expected to be insufficient. Although there is a tight supply expectation of high - quality grain in some areas, the public bidding transactions and a significant increase in imports, along with the support of downstream procurement demand, suggest that corn prices in the first half of the year may be relatively optimistic, but the upside space is limited. It is recommended that grain - using enterprises purchase spot goods as needed and maintain a safe reserve, while traders should buy at low prices and sell at high prices [6] 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The corn main 2603 contract rebounded again, while the spot price was stable with a slight decline. The basis of corn oscillated weakly, and the discount of the futures price narrowed. The starch main 2603 contract oscillated and rebounded, with a stable starch price and a weakly oscillating basis [3] 3.2 New Grain Sales Progress - As of January 22, the national grain sales progress was 56%, 1% slower year - on - year. There was obvious regional differentiation: the Northeast was 56%, 2% faster year - on - year; North China was 51%, 3% slower year - on - year; and the Northwest was 69%, 3% slower year - on - year. It is expected that the national grain sales progress before the Spring Festival will exceed 60%, and there will be insufficient remaining grain after the Spring Festival. As of January 22, CGSCC had put 750,000 tons into public bidding and 611,000 tons were transacted [3] 3.3 Inventory Status - As of January 16, the corn inventory in northern ports was 1.497 million tons, rebounding month - on - month and at a low level in the same period in recent years. The weekly shipping volume was 389,000 tons, dropping significantly. In Guangdong Port, the domestic trade corn inventory was 478,000 tons, dropping month - on - month, and the foreign trade corn inventory was 219,000 tons, also dropping month - on - month. As of January 23, the corn inventory of deep - processing enterprises was 3.838 million tons, rising continuously month - on - month and still at a low level in the same period in recent years. The corn inventory of feed enterprises was 31.32 days, rising month - on - month [4] 3.4 Substitute and Import Situation - Due to the delayed wheat sowing and poor seedling conditions, wheat may have a reduced yield. The wheat - corn price difference remains high, and wheat substitution for corn is not feasible. In December 2025, China's corn imports increased significantly again, up 44.1% month - on - month and 135.3% year - on - year. The cumulative corn imports in 2025 were 2.647 million tons, down 80.8% year - on - year. Corn imports have increased significantly since last October and may continue to rise [4] 3.5 External Market Conditions - The U.S. corn in the external market oscillated at a low level. The U.S. Department of Agriculture's January supply - demand report increased the U.S. corn production to a record high due to increased yield per unit and harvested area, which led to a nearly 10% increase in the ending inventory, up 44% year - on - year. The South American corn production was not adjusted. The global corn ending inventory increased by 4.2% but was still 1.29% lower than last year [4] 3.6 Demand Situation - Feed demand was relatively strong. Pig prices rebounded, and pig farming turned profitable. As of January 16, the profit of purchasing piglets for fattening was 48.35 yuan per head, and the self - breeding and self - fattening profit was 7.39 yuan per head. The reduction of pig production capacity achieved certain results. In December, the national inventory of breeding sows was 39.61 million, and the national pig inventory was 429.67 million, showing the first month - on - month decline in recent years and only a 0.5% year - on - year increase. In the poultry sector, egg prices rebounded, and the breeding loss narrowed. The demand for feed may remain strong. Deep - processing enterprise demand was insufficient. The processing profit of starch processing enterprises was in the red in some areas, and the operating rate stopped falling. The operating rate of starch processing enterprises was 60.46% as of January 23, rising month - on - month, and the starch inventory was 1.069 million tons, continuing to decline. Alcohol processing enterprises continued to make losses, and the operating rate dropped to 57.33%. The operating rate of downstream starch sugar enterprises was rising, and that of paper - making enterprises was relatively stable [5]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - Despite the overall increase in new - grain production, the grain quality in North China and other regions is severely differentiated. The market favors high - quality corn from Northeast China. New - grain sales are relatively fast, and demand is strong. It is recommended that grain - using enterprises purchase at low prices and moderately increase safety reserves, while traders should buy low and sell high [6]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content Market Price and Basis - The main corn 2601 contract continued to rebound. The spot price increased, with the FOB price of corn in Bayuquan rising from 2,165 yuan/ton to around 2,205 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton, and the arrival price of corn in Shekou Port rising from 2,250 yuan/ton to around 2,330 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton. The corn basis first weakened and then strengthened, with the futures slightly at a discount. The main starch 2601 contract continued to rebound. The starch price of Weifang Jinyu remained stable at around 2,800 yuan/ton, and the basis fluctuated weakly [4]. Supply Side - Farmers are somewhat reluctant to sell, but new - grain sales are still fast. The national corn output increased to 300 million tons, 500,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Due to the differentiation of grain quality in North China and other regions, the market mostly stocks up in Northeast China. The price increase in the Northeast region has made farmers reluctant to sell, and it is easier to store after the temperature drops. As of November 13, the national new - grain sales progress was 24%, 1% faster than the same period last year. Among them, the sales progress in the Northeast region was 19%, 2% faster than the same period last year; in North China, it was 23%, the same as the same period last year; in Northwest China, it was 46%, 3% faster than the same period last year. At the new - grain listing node, imported corn was auctioned again, and Sinograin entered the market to purchase for rotation, which affected the new - grain purchase and sales rhythm [4]. Demand and Inventory - After the corn price increase, downstream enterprises slowed down their procurement. As of November 7, the corn inventory in the northern ports was 1.071 million tons and continued to rise, while the weekly shipping volume was 582,000 tons, a decrease from the previous week. The domestic - trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 454,000 tons, and the foreign - trade corn inventory was 412,000 tons, both rising from the previous week. As of November 14, the corn inventory of deep - processing enterprises was 273,500 tons, a decrease from the previous week, and the corn inventory of feed enterprises was 25.61 days, an increase from the previous week [5]. Substitute and Import - There is a lack of grain substitution, and imports remain at a low level. The price difference between wheat and corn remains above 200 yuan, so wheat does not have a substitution advantage. Domestic corn imports remain at a low level. However, Sino - US trade is improving, and mutual tax cuts have been implemented, with a basic tariff of 10% still retained. There is a possibility of replenishing and rotating imported corn due to the auction of imported corn in the domestic market [5]. External Market - The US corn in the external market fluctuated and rebounded. The US government will end the shutdown, and the US Department of Agriculture will release the latest supply - demand report. The US corn harvest may be basically over, with high production pressure. Attention should be paid to the possibility of China importing US corn [5]. Downstream Demand - Feed demand is strong, and deep - processing demand is good. Pig prices are low, and pig farming continues to incur losses. As of November 14, the profit of purchasing piglets for fattening was - 205.64 yuan per head, and the self - breeding and self - fattening profit was - 114.81 yuan per head. The adjustment of the productive sow capacity is slow. In September, the national productive sow inventory was 40.35 million heads, a decrease of 30,000 heads from the previous month, far from the regulatory target. Market pressure on pigs for slaughter and secondary fattening increased. At the end of the third quarter, the live - pig inventory was 436.8 million heads, a 29% increase from the previous quarter and a 23% increase from the same period last year. In the short term, the inventory is difficult to reduce. In the poultry sector, egg prices have fallen again, and egg - chicken farming continues to incur losses. The sales volume of chicks has decreased, and the culling of old chickens has increased. In October, the inventory of laying hens decreased slightly. Feed demand remains strong. Deep - processing enterprises have good demand. Starch - processing enterprises continue to make profits, and the operating rate is rising. As of November 14, the operating rate of starch - processing enterprises was 63.48% and continued to rise. Starch inventory remains at a high level. Alcohol - processing enterprises are suffering large losses, and the operating rate remains high at 67.29%. The operating rate of downstream starch - sugar enterprises has stabilized, and the operating rate of paper - making enterprises is relatively strong [6].