1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For corn, the overall trend remains weak, and a bearish approach is recommended. The expected opening price of new grain in domestic main producing areas is not high, large grain - using enterprises' inventories can connect with the new season's corn, some processing enterprises are stopping purchases, and factors like policy - grain rotation and wheat substitution are suppressing the market, cooling the bullish sentiment and expanding the downward range of the spot market [2]. - For corn starch, the overall trend also remains weak, and a bearish approach is recommended. With the resumption of work of previously - overhauled enterprises, the industry's operating rate has increased, leading to greater supply pressure. Meanwhile, downstream demand is in the off - season, resulting in a clear oversupply situation [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Corn starch futures closing price (active contract) is 2154 yuan/ton, down 76 yuan; corn futures closing price (active contract) is 2481 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan. Corn monthly spread (1 - 5) is - 8 yuan/ton, and corn starch monthly spread (11 - 1) is - 17 yuan/ton [2]. - Futures open interest: 28815 hands for yellow corn and 984080 hands for corn starch. Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders are - 120088 hands for corn and - 22883 hands for corn starch [2]. - Registered warehouse receipts: 94340 hands for yellow corn (down 8950 hands) and 7450 hands for corn starch (unchanged) [2]. - The CS - C spread of the main contract is 360 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan [2]. 3.2 Outer - Market - CBOT corn futures closing price (active contract) is 411.75 cents/bushel, down 1 cent. CBOT corn total open interest (weekly) is 1566367 contracts, an increase of 16491 contracts. Non - commercial net long positions of CBOT corn are - 105210 contracts, an increase of 27964 contracts [2]. 3.3 Spot Market - The average spot price of corn is 2368.43 yuan/ton, down 5.1 yuan. Factory quotes for corn starch are 2710 yuan/ton in Changchun, 2950 yuan/ton in Weifang, and 2880 yuan/ton in Shijiazhuang [2]. - The CIF price of imported corn is 1923.11 yuan/ton, down 3.14 yuan. The international freight of imported corn is unchanged [2]. - The basis of the corn main contract is 15.9 yuan/ton, and the basis of the corn starch main contract is 229 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan [2]. 3.4 Substitute Spot Prices - The average spot price of wheat is 2431.61 yuan/ton, down 0.39 yuan. The spread between tapioca starch and corn starch is 157 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan [2]. 3.5 Upstream Situation - The predicted sown area of corn in the US is 398.93 million hectares, and the predicted output is 35.12 million tons (down 0.25 million tons). In Brazil, the sown area is 22.6 million hectares (unchanged), and the output is 131 million tons (unchanged) [2]. - In Argentina, the sown area is 53 million hectares (unchanged), and the output is 7.5 million tons (unchanged). In China, the sown area is 295 million hectares (unchanged), and the output is 44.3 million tons (unchanged). In Ukraine, the output is 30.5 million tons (unchanged) [2]. 3.6 Industry Situation - Corn inventories at southern ports are 67.1 tons (down 8 tons), and at northern ports are 203 tons (down 44 tons). Deep - processing corn inventories are 314.7 tons (down 25.5 tons) [2]. - Starch enterprise weekly inventories are 133.9 tons, an increase of 0.7 tons from last week, a weekly increase of 0.53%, a monthly increase of 2.14%, and a year - on - year increase of 25.61% [2][3]. - The monthly import volume of corn is 6 tons (down 10 tons), and the monthly export volume of corn starch is 14.5 tons (down 13.28 tons) [2]. - The monthly output of feed is 2937.7 tons [2]. 3.7 Downstream Situation - The average inventory days of sample feed corn are 28.85 days, down 0.76 days. The deep - processing corn consumption is 113.62 tons, down 0.44 tons [2]. - The operating rate of alcohol enterprises is 43.57% (up 1.57%), and the operating rate of starch enterprises is 52.3% (down 3.6%) [2]. 3.8 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 6.29% (up 0.42%), and the 60 - day historical volatility is 5.94% (up 0.08%) [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for corn is 9.89% (up 1.01%), and the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 9.91% (up 1.04%) [2]. 3.9 Industry News - ProFarmer's final yield forecast report shows that the total US corn production in 2025 is expected to reach 16.204 billion bushels, with an average yield of 182.7 bushels per acre, lower than the USDA's August forecast of 16.742 billion bushels and 188.8 bushels per acre [2]. - As of August 20, the harvest progress of Argentine corn in the 2024/25 season is 95.9%, 1.3% higher than a week ago but 2.8% lower than the same period last year and 1.1% lower than the five - year average [2]. 3.10 Key Points of Attention - Pay attention to Mysteel's weekly corn consumption, as well as the operating rate and inventory of starch enterprises on Thursday and Friday [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The short - term price of live pigs has some support, but it is still under pressure later; the corn price is supported in the short - term but has limited upside space with pressure on the upper side of the market and may fluctuate at a low level in the short - term [5][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Live Pigs - Last week, the live pig futures showed a weak trend. The LH2509 contract closed at 14,055 yuan/ton, a 2.63% drop from the previous week's settlement price. The national average market price of outer ternary live pigs was 14.26 yuan/kg, a week - on - week decrease of 0.55 yuan/kg. As of August 1st, the self - breeding and self - raising profit was 43.85 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 18.31 yuan/head; the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 116.78 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 45.39 yuan/head; the pig - grain ratio was 5.93, a week - on - week decrease of 0.09 [5] - The national live pig spot market first declined and then stabilized last week. In the short term, downstream consumption has no obvious positive factors, and the demand boost is limited. At the beginning of the month, the enterprise's slaughter pressure weakens, and the breeding end mainly controls the quantity and stabilizes the price. After continuous market decline, second - fattening inquiries have started in some areas, providing short - term support for live pig prices. However, as breeding enterprises resume slaughter, live pig prices are still expected to be under pressure [5] Corn - Last week, the corn futures fluctuated weakly. The C2509 contract closed at 2,297 yuan/ton, a 0.73% drop from the previous week's settlement price. The national average spot price of corn was 2,402.75 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 5.09 yuan/ton. Port prices in some areas showed a slight decline [6] - From July 24th to July 31st, 2025, 149 major corn deep - processing enterprises consumed 1.1377 million tons of corn, a week - on - week increase of 75,300 tons. The processing volume of corn starch enterprises was 545,100 tons, an increase of 43,600 tons from the previous week; the weekly national corn starch output was 267,800 tons, an increase of 32,600 tons from the previous week; the weekly operating rate was 51.76%, a 6.3% increase from the previous week. The operating rate of the DDGS industry increased, with the weekly output increasing by 8.20% [7] - As of July 30th, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 3.797 million tons, a decrease of 5.19%. As of August 1st, the total corn inventory of the four northern ports was about 2.06 million tons, and the corn inventory in Guangdong ports was 830,000 tons [7][8] - The national corn spot market first rose and then fell last week. The remaining grain inventory decreased significantly year - on - year, providing short - term supply support for corn prices. However, it is rumored that the directional rice auction may resume in August, which will help ease the tight supply of the corn market and limit the upside space of corn prices. The market is under pressure on the upper side and may fluctuate at a low level in the short term [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The US corn is oscillating at the bottom, and it's likely to be affected by weather speculation later. The downside space of the US corn December contract below 420 cents per bushel is limited. The 09 corn contract is expected to continue oscillating at the bottom, with strong support at 2280 and resistance at 2330. The 09 corn and starch price spread will still fluctuate within a narrow range, and it's advisable to wait and see for the 01 corn contract [3]. - The开机 rate of starch factories is decreasing, downstream demand remains weak, but提货 volume has increased, leading to a decline in starch inventory. Starch spot prices are relatively stable, and starch factories are still suffering significant losses [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Corn**: The US corn is oscillating at the bottom. Northeast corn prices are falling, North - port inventory is decreasing, and North - port spot prices are stable. North China corn supply is tight, and 09 corn is oscillating at the bottom, affected by the auction volume [3]. - **Starch**: The开机 rate of starch factories is decreasing, downstream demand is weak,提货 volume increases, and inventory decreases. Starch spot prices are stable, and factories are in significant losses [3]. - **Trading Strategies**: Consider buying the US corn December contract below 420 cents per bushel. The 09 corn will oscillate between 2280 - 2330. It's advisable to wait and see for arbitrage and options trading [3][4]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis International - **Weather and Supply - Demand**: The US corn planting is completed, the July report is flat, and the weather is good, resulting in bottom - level oscillation. The import tariffs for US corn and sorghum are 26% and 23% respectively. Domestic import profits have expanded. As of July 17, the US corn export inspection this week was 1.3 million tons, with a cumulative export of 58.11 million tons. In June, 160,000 tons of corn were imported, and from January to June, 790,000 tons were imported, compared to 1.105 billion tons in the same period last year [6]. - **Non - commercial Net Short Position and Ethanol Production**: As of July 15, the non - commercial net short position of US corn was 130,000 lots, showing a decrease. US ethanol production has rebounded. The US corn December contract is expected to have limited downside space below 420 cents per bushel [11]. Domestic - **Deep - processing and Feed**: Deep - processing consumption, inventory, and feed enterprise corn inventory are all decreasing. In the 30th week of 2025 (July 17 - July 24), 1.0624 million tons of corn were consumed by 149 major corn deep - processing enterprises, a decrease of 38,100 tons from the previous week. As of July 23, the inventory of 96 deep - processing enterprises was 4.005 million tons, a 6.21% decrease from the previous week. As of July 24, the average corn inventory of 47 large - scale feed factories was 30.87 days, a decrease of 0.47 days from the previous week but a 0.65% increase compared to the same period last year [14]. - **Port Inventory**: North - port corn inventory is decreasing, while South - port grain inventory is increasing. On July 18, the corn inventory of the four northern ports was 2.209 million tons, a weekly decrease of 97,000 tons, and the four - port shipping volume was 340,000 tons, a weekly decrease of 262,000 tons. The total grain inventory in Guangdong Port increased by 122,000 tons to 1.826 million tons [17]. - **Starch**: The开机 rate of deep - processing is decreasing. From July 17 to July 23, the national corn processing volume was 501,500 tons, and the starch production was 235,200 tons, a decrease of 25,000 tons from the previous week. The开机 rate was 45.46%, a 4.83% decrease from the previous week. The profit loss has expanded, and starch inventory is decreasing. As of July 23, the corn starch inventory was 1.311 million tons, a decrease of 35,000 tons from the previous week [20]. - **Substitutes**: Wheat prices are basically stable. The price difference between wheat and corn is narrowing, the North China corn price is rebounding, the Northeast corn price is strong, the price difference between North China and Northeast corn is expanding, and the price difference between North China corn and the 09 corn contract is rising [26]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - **Livestock and Poultry**: From July 17 - July 23, the self - breeding and self - raising profit of pigs was 72 yuan per head, a decrease of 43 yuan per head from the previous week, and the profit of buying piglets for fattening was - 117 yuan per head, a decrease of 46 yuan per head from the previous week. The breeding profit of white - feather broilers was - 0.88 yuan per bird, compared to - 2.04 yuan per bird last week. The egg - laying hen breeding cost was 3.54 yuan per catty, and the profit was - 0.32 yuan per catty, compared to - 0.77 yuan per catty last week [32][37]. - **Deep - processing Consumption**: This week, the开机 rate of F55 high - fructose corn syrup was 56.71%, a decrease of 1.02% from the previous week, and the开机 rate of maltose syrup was 45.04%, a decrease of 0.74% from the previous week. The开机 rate of corrugated paper was 61.97%, a decrease of 1.04% from the previous week, and the开机 rate of boxboard paper was 65.6%, a decrease of 0.66% from the previous week [40]. - **Prices of Corn and Substitutes**: Relevant price trends and price differences of corn and its substitutes are presented through various price charts, such as the Jinzhou Port corn flat - hatch price, Weifang starch ex - factory price, etc. [42][43]

Core Insights - The USDA quarterly inventory report indicates that as of June 1, 2025, the total old crop corn inventory in the United States is 4.644 billion bushels, slightly above market expectations of 4.641 billion bushels, but down from 4.993 billion bushels in the same period last year [1] Summary by Category Inventory Data - Total old crop corn inventory in the U.S. is reported at 4.644 billion bushels [1] - Market expectations for the inventory were 4.641 billion bushels [1] - The inventory level has decreased from 4.993 billion bushels year-over-year [1]