Core Insights - The total industrial feed production in China is projected to reach 34,225.3 million tons by 2025, with an annual growth rate of 8.6% [1] - The increase in domestic livestock and poultry production capacity is expected to drive a more than 8% year-on-year increase in compound feed demand, providing strong support for corn prices [1] - Due to reduced profits and potential losses in livestock farming, it is anticipated that the production capacity of pigs and the inventory of laying hens may decline in 2026, leading to total feed demand in 2026 being lower than in 2025 but higher than in 2024, maintaining a relatively high level [1] - The usage of corn in feed is expected to slightly decrease year-on-year, which may weaken its supporting role for corn prices [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic soybean sales slow down, the price remains stable, and there is still a certain amount of surplus grain before the Spring Festival; the domestic imported soybeans decline, the port inventory drops, the auction is postponed; the oil - mill operating rate rebounds, the soybean meal inventory decreases, and the demand is strong. It is expected that soybean futures will fluctuate strongly, while soybean meal futures will remain volatile [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Performance - The main soybean contract 2605 quickly soared to 4440 and then quickly fell back, hitting a new high in nearly a year. The spot price was relatively stable, with the market price of Fuyin soybeans around 4400 yuan/ton. The soybean basis weakened in a volatile manner, and the futures price was slightly at a discount. The main soybean meal contract 2605 fluctuated up and down. The spot price of soybean meal rose slightly and steadily, with the price of 43% protein soybean meal in Zhangjiagang rising from 3060 yuan/ton to around 3070 yuan/ton. The basis weakened in a volatile manner, and the futures price was at a high discount [4]. Domestic Soybean Situation - The sales of domestic soybeans slowed down. As of January 23, the remaining grain ratio of Heilongjiang soybeans remained at 40% month - on - month; that of Anhui soybeans dropped to 48%, a 2% month - on - month decrease; that of Henan soybeans dropped to 52%, a 3% month - on - month decrease; and that of Shandong soybeans dropped to 53%, a 3% month - on - month decrease. Due to the differentiation of grain quality, the expectation of tight supply of high - quality domestic soybeans continued. Recently, the state - reserve soybean auction was suspended, and with the approaching of the Spring Festival, enterprise procurement slowed down [4]. Imported Soybean Situation - Imported soybeans continued to decline, and the port soybean inventory continued to drop. In December 2025, China imported 804300 tons of soybeans, a month - on - month decline and a 1.28% year - on - year increase. The cumulative imported soybeans in 2025 were 111818500 tons, a 6.46% year - on - year increase. There was no latest imported soybean auction announcement. The soybeans purchased from the US by China might enter the reserve rotation. The arrival of soybeans at oil mills stabilized, and the port soybean inventory continued to decline. As of January 23, the arrival of soybeans at oil mills was 174200 tons, a slight month - on - month decrease; the port soybean inventory was 721500 tons, a continuous month - on - month decline [4]. US Soybean Situation - US soybeans fluctuated at a low level. The USDA January supply - demand report was bearish. The US soybean production was slightly increased, exports were slightly reduced, but the ending stocks were significantly increased. The Brazilian soybean production was increased, and the global ending stocks were increased. Attention should be paid to the increasing production pressure of the new - season soybeans in South America [5]. Oil - mill and Soybean Meal Situation - The operating rate of oil mills rebounded again, and the soybean meal inventory continued to drop. As of January 23, the operating rate of oil mills was 57.83%, a month - on - month rebound; the soybean crushing volume was 2102100 tons; the soybean inventory of oil mills was 6589900 tons, a month - on - month decline. The soybean meal output was 1661000 tons; the soybean meal inventory of oil mills was 898600 tons, a continuous month - on - month decline; the unfulfilled contracts for soybean meal were 4061600 tons, a month - on - month decline. The inventory days of soybean meal in feed mills were 10.21 days, a continuous month - on - month increase [5]. Feed Demand Situation - The feed demand was strong. In terms of livestock farming, the pig price rebounded, and the breeding profit increased. As of January 23, the breeding profit of purchased piglets was 115.84 yuan per head, an increase in profit; the self - breeding and self - raising profit was 43.35 yuan per head, an increase in profit. The reduction of production capacity achieved certain results. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the inventory of breeding sows and live pigs in December both decreased. From the situation of large - scale farms, the inventory of breeding sows continued to decline month - on - month in December, the culling of old pigs increased; the birth and sales volume of piglets increased month - on - month, and the replenishment sentiment improved; the inventory of commercial pigs decreased slightly month - on - month for the first time in nearly a year. However, the profit might drag down the pace of future production capacity reduction. In terms of poultry farming, the egg price rebounded, and the breeding turned from loss to profit; the culling of old chickens increased, and the inventory in December decreased slightly month - on - month. The feed demand was still strong, and feed enterprises actively stocked up [6].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report [2] 2. Core Viewpoint The new grain sales have slowed down, and the remaining grain after the Spring Festival is still expected to be insufficient. Although there is a tight supply expectation of high - quality grain in some areas, the public bidding transactions and a significant increase in imports, along with the support of downstream procurement demand, suggest that corn prices in the first half of the year may be relatively optimistic, but the upside space is limited. It is recommended that grain - using enterprises purchase spot goods as needed and maintain a safe reserve, while traders should buy at low prices and sell at high prices [6] 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The corn main 2603 contract rebounded again, while the spot price was stable with a slight decline. The basis of corn oscillated weakly, and the discount of the futures price narrowed. The starch main 2603 contract oscillated and rebounded, with a stable starch price and a weakly oscillating basis [3] 3.2 New Grain Sales Progress - As of January 22, the national grain sales progress was 56%, 1% slower year - on - year. There was obvious regional differentiation: the Northeast was 56%, 2% faster year - on - year; North China was 51%, 3% slower year - on - year; and the Northwest was 69%, 3% slower year - on - year. It is expected that the national grain sales progress before the Spring Festival will exceed 60%, and there will be insufficient remaining grain after the Spring Festival. As of January 22, CGSCC had put 750,000 tons into public bidding and 611,000 tons were transacted [3] 3.3 Inventory Status - As of January 16, the corn inventory in northern ports was 1.497 million tons, rebounding month - on - month and at a low level in the same period in recent years. The weekly shipping volume was 389,000 tons, dropping significantly. In Guangdong Port, the domestic trade corn inventory was 478,000 tons, dropping month - on - month, and the foreign trade corn inventory was 219,000 tons, also dropping month - on - month. As of January 23, the corn inventory of deep - processing enterprises was 3.838 million tons, rising continuously month - on - month and still at a low level in the same period in recent years. The corn inventory of feed enterprises was 31.32 days, rising month - on - month [4] 3.4 Substitute and Import Situation - Due to the delayed wheat sowing and poor seedling conditions, wheat may have a reduced yield. The wheat - corn price difference remains high, and wheat substitution for corn is not feasible. In December 2025, China's corn imports increased significantly again, up 44.1% month - on - month and 135.3% year - on - year. The cumulative corn imports in 2025 were 2.647 million tons, down 80.8% year - on - year. Corn imports have increased significantly since last October and may continue to rise [4] 3.5 External Market Conditions - The U.S. corn in the external market oscillated at a low level. The U.S. Department of Agriculture's January supply - demand report increased the U.S. corn production to a record high due to increased yield per unit and harvested area, which led to a nearly 10% increase in the ending inventory, up 44% year - on - year. The South American corn production was not adjusted. The global corn ending inventory increased by 4.2% but was still 1.29% lower than last year [4] 3.6 Demand Situation - Feed demand was relatively strong. Pig prices rebounded, and pig farming turned profitable. As of January 16, the profit of purchasing piglets for fattening was 48.35 yuan per head, and the self - breeding and self - fattening profit was 7.39 yuan per head. The reduction of pig production capacity achieved certain results. In December, the national inventory of breeding sows was 39.61 million, and the national pig inventory was 429.67 million, showing the first month - on - month decline in recent years and only a 0.5% year - on - year increase. In the poultry sector, egg prices rebounded, and the breeding loss narrowed. The demand for feed may remain strong. Deep - processing enterprise demand was insufficient. The processing profit of starch processing enterprises was in the red in some areas, and the operating rate stopped falling. The operating rate of starch processing enterprises was 60.46% as of January 23, rising month - on - month, and the starch inventory was 1.069 million tons, continuing to decline. Alcohol processing enterprises continued to make losses, and the operating rate dropped to 57.33%. The operating rate of downstream starch sugar enterprises was rising, and that of paper - making enterprises was relatively stable [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The soybean No.1 market is expected to be oscillating strongly, while the soybean meal market will continue to fluctuate. The domestic sales of soybeans are accelerating, with over half sold in Northeast China, and the price remains firm. The import of soybeans in China has slowed down, the port inventory is decreasing, and the import auction is on hold. The oil mill's operating rate is decreasing, but the soybean meal inventory remains high, and the demand is strong [4][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog a. Market Performance of Soybean No.1 and Soybean Meal - The main contract of soybean No. 2605 rose after the holiday and then fell back after hitting resistance around 4300. The spot price continued to rise, with the market price of Fuyin soybeans increasing from 4200 yuan/ton to around 4320 yuan/ton. The basis of soybean No. 1 strengthened oscillatingly, and the futures price remained at a discount [4]. - The main contract of soybean meal 2605 fluctuated up and down. The spot price of soybean meal slightly declined, with the price of 43% protein soybean meal in Zhangjiagang dropping from 3070 yuan/ton to around 3050 yuan/ton. The basis strengthened oscillatingly, and the futures price discount widened [4]. b. Supply and Demand of Domestic and Imported Soybeans - **Domestic Soybeans**: The sales of domestic soybeans are accelerating, with the remaining grain ratio in Northeast China dropping significantly. As of January 2, the remaining grain ratio of soybeans in Heilongjiang dropped to 47%, a 3% month - on - month decrease; in Anhui, it dropped to 52%, a 3% decrease; in Henan, it dropped to 57%, a 3% decrease; in Shandong, it dropped to 58%, a 4% decrease. In the context of the expected tight supply of high - quality domestic soybeans, a large amount of state - reserve soybeans were auctioned to supplement the market [4]. - **Imported Soybeans**: The auction of imported soybeans has been suspended since December 19. China's procurement of soybeans has slowed down. In November, the domestic import of soybeans was 8.11 million tons, a further month - on - month decrease but still a 13.3% year - on - year increase. The port soybean inventory has been continuously decreasing. As of January 2, the arrival volume of soybeans at oil mills was 2.301 million tons, a significant month - on - month increase, and the port soybean inventory was 8.236 million tons, a continuous month - on - month decrease [4]. c. International Soybean Market - The US soybeans rebounded after a continuous decline. The market is focusing on the USDA's January supply - demand report, which made few adjustments in December. On the one hand, the subsequent implementation of China's soybean purchase contracts still depends on Sino - US trade relations. On the other hand, there is an increasing production pressure of new - season soybeans in South America, and some Brazilian traders' withdrawal from the "Soybean Ban" may increase the export potential of Brazilian soybeans [5]. d. Oil Mill and Soybean Meal Inventory - The operating rate of oil mills decreased again. As of January 2, the operating rate of oil mills was 48.23%, a further month - on - month decrease; the soybean crushing volume was 1.7533 million tons; the soybean inventory of oil mills was 7.1025 million tons, a month - on - month increase. The soybean meal output was 1.385 million tons, a further month - on - month decrease; the soybean meal inventory of oil mills was 1.1702 million tons, a slight month - on - month increase, remaining at a relatively high level; the unfulfilled contracts of soybean meal were 5.798 million tons, a significant month - on - month increase. The inventory days of soybean meal in feed mills were 9.4 days, a slight month - on - month decrease, at a high level in recent years [5]. e. Feed Demand - **Pig Farming**: The pig price rebounded, and the breeding loss significantly narrowed. As of January 2, the breeding profit of purchased piglets was - 48.35 yuan per head, a significant narrowing; the self - breeding and self - raising profit was - 34.59 yuan per head, also a significant narrowing. The productive sow capacity continued to be adjusted down. In October, the national inventory of productive sows was 39.9 million, a decrease of 450,000 from the previous month. The inventory of large - scale farms also decreased in November. The birth and sales volume of piglets both decreased, indicating a weak mentality of replenishing the inventory, while the inventory of commercial pigs still increased. It is difficult for the national pig inventory to decrease in the fourth quarter [6]. - **Poultry Farming**: The egg price was low, the breeding was continuously in loss, and the culling increased. The inventory in November decreased slightly month - on - month and may continue to decline in the fourth quarter. In the short term, the rigid demand for feed is still strong, but there are concerns about capacity reduction in the long term [6].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Soybean Auction Restarts, Soybean Meal Weakly Fluctuates" [1] - Date: December 24, 2025 [1] - Research Institute: Hongye Futures Financial Research Institute [3] - Analyst: Chen Chunlei [3] Group 2: Market Performance - Soybean No. 1: The main contract changed to 2605, fluctuating up and down during the week. The spot price rose slightly, with the market price of Fuyin soybeans increasing from 4,100 yuan/ton to around 4,120 yuan/ton. The basis first strengthened and then weakened, with the futures price at a slight discount [4]. - Soybean Meal: The main 2605 contract weakly fluctuated. The spot price slightly declined, with the price of Zhangjiagang 43% protein soybean meal dropping from 3,060 yuan/ton to around 3,030 yuan/ton. The basis fluctuated and strengthened, with the futures discount widening [4]. Group 3: Domestic Soybean Situation - Domestic Sales: Sales of domestic soybeans showed regional differentiation. Due to the quality differentiation in North China, the sales progress varied by region. As of December 19, the remaining soybean ratio in Heilongjiang dropped to 58%, in Anhui to 56%, in Henan to 60%, and in Shandong to 64%. Except for Northeast China, which was faster than the same period last year, other regions were slower [4]. - State Reserve Auction: State reserve soybean auctions restarted. On December 23, 210,000 tons were put up for auction, and 130,000 tons were sold [4]. Group 4: Imported Soybean Situation - Imported Auction: Imported soybean auctions resumed in December. As of December 19, over 1.5 million tons had been put up for auction, with nearly 900,000 tons sold in total. In November, China imported 8.11 million tons of soybeans, a decline from the previous month but still a 13.3% increase year-on-year. Chinese purchases of soybeans slowed down, and port soybean inventories continued to decline. However, with the supplement from imported auctions, the domestic soybean supply was sufficient [4]. - Port Inventory: As of December 19, the soybean arrival volume at oil mills was 1.9825 million tons, a decline from the previous week. Port soybean inventories were 8.656 million tons, continuing to decline [4]. Group 5: US Soybean Situation - US Soybean Trend: US soybeans continued to decline and adjust. The USDA December supply and demand report made few adjustments and was neutral. There were concerns about Chinese future soybean purchases and the increasing production pressure of the new South American soybean season [5]. Group 6: Oil Mill Situation - Operating Rate: As of December 19, the oil mill operating rate was 58.61%, a slight increase from the previous week and at a high level in recent years. The soybean crushing volume was 2.1306 million tons, and the soybean inventory at oil mills was 7.2236 million tons, a decline from the previous week [5]. - Soybean Meal Inventory: The soybean meal production was 1.683 million tons, an increase from the previous week. The soybean meal inventory at oil mills was 1.1371 million tons, an increase from the previous week and at a high level in recent years. The unsold soybean meal contracts were 4.736 million tons, a decline from the previous week [5]. Group 7: Feed Demand Situation - Pig Farming: Pig prices were low, and farming losses were still large. As of December 19, the profit from purchasing piglets for fattening was -189.5 yuan per head, narrowing, and the profit from self - breeding and self - fattening was -130.88 yuan per head. The adjustment of the breeding sow capacity continued. In October, the national breeding sow inventory was 39.9 million heads, a decrease of 450,000 heads from the previous month. The inventory of large - scale farms also decreased in November. The birth and sales volume of piglets both declined, indicating a weak mentality for restocking. The commercial pig inventory still increased, and it was difficult for the national pig inventory to decrease in the fourth quarter [6]. - Poultry Farming: Egg prices were low, and poultry farming continued to operate at a loss. The number of culled poultry increased, and the inventory in November decreased slightly month - on - month, and was expected to continue to decline in the fourth quarter. In the short term, the rigid demand for feed was still strong, but there were concerns about capacity reduction in the long term [6]. Group 8: Market Outlook - Soybean No. 1: It will continue to fluctuate as the sales of domestic soybeans are differentiated and the price increase slows down with the supplement from auctions [6]. - Soybean Meal: It will weakly fluctuate and adjust due to sufficient domestic soybean supply, a slight increase in oil mill operating rates, high soybean meal inventories, and strong demand [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - For the pig industry, supply pressure remains high, and the rebound of futures prices is under pressure. In the short - term, pig prices will fluctuate narrowly, and in the medium - to - long - term, prices before the Spring Festival and in the first half of next year are not optimistic, while prices in the second half of next year are expected to be relatively strong but with caution [5][54]. - For the egg industry, the marginal improvement of supply - demand looseness is observed, and attention should be paid to spot price guidance. In the short - term, egg prices have support at the bottom, while in the medium - to - long - term, capacity clearance still takes time [6][80]. - For the corn industry, the selling pressure needs to be digested, and caution is needed when chasing high prices on the futures market. In the short - term, there is still selling pressure to release, and in the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose year - on - year, which limits the upside space [7][105]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Pig 3.1.1 Weekly Market Review - As of November 28, the national spot price was 11.13 yuan/kg, down 0.41 yuan/kg from last week; the Henan pig price was 11.24 yuan/kg, down 0.33 yuan/kg from last week; the futures price of live pigs 2501 was 11465 yuan/ton, up 115 yuan/ton from last week; the basis of the 01 contract was - 225 yuan/ton, down 445 yuan/ton from last week [5][12][54]. 3.1.2 Fundamental Data Review - Supply - related indicators: The average slaughter weight increased by 0.41 kg to 129.22 kg; the fat - standard price difference decreased by 0.10 yuan to 0.54 yuan; the proportion of pigs below 90 kg increased by 0.35% to 4.83%, and the proportion of pigs above 150 kg increased by 0.94% to 6.32% [13]. - Demand - related indicators: The weekly average daily slaughter rate increased by 1.47% to 35.41%; the weekly average daily slaughter volume increased by 6066 heads to 146566 heads; the fresh - meat sales rate of key slaughtering enterprises increased by 0.18% to 85.60%; the slaughter processing profit increased by 1.30 yuan/head to 7.2 yuan/head [13]. - Inventory - related indicators: The frozen - product inventory rate decreased by 0.07% to 20.15%; the pig - grain ratio decreased by 0.13 to 5.37 [13]. - Cost - related indicators: The price of 7 - kg weaned piglets increased by 5.95 yuan/head to 215.95 yuan/head; the price of 15 - kg piglets decreased by 1 yuan/head to 299 yuan/head; the price of binary breeding sows remained stable at 1548 yuan/head; the price of pig feed increased by 0.02 yuan/kg to 2.62 yuan/kg [13]. - Profit - related indicators: The self - breeding and self - raising profit decreased by 59.74 yuan/head to - 141.09 yuan/head; the profit of purchasing piglets decreased by 84.03 yuan/head to - 248.95 yuan/head [13]. 3.1.3 Key Data Tracking - The inventory of breeding sows decreased. In October, the official sow inventory was 39.9 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 1.12% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.04%, still 2.31% higher than the normal inventory of 39 million heads [17]. - The production performance improved. In October, the ratio of binary to ternary breeding sows was 95%:5%, the farrowing rate of inseminated sows was 79.7%, and the average number of healthy piglets per litter was 11.32 [17]. 3.1.4 Weekly Summary and Strategy Suggestions - In the short - term, the supply pressure still exists, and the increase in demand is not obvious. Pig prices will fluctuate narrowly. In the medium - to - long - term, supply will remain high before the first half of next year, and prices will be under pressure. In the second half of next year, prices are expected to be relatively strong, but caution is needed [5][54]. - Strategy: Adopt a short - selling strategy for near - month and off - season contracts on rallies; be cautiously bullish on far - month contracts [5][54]. 3.2 Egg 3.2.1 Weekly Market Review - As of November 28, the average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 2.99 yuan/jin, up 0.13 yuan/jin from last Friday; the average price in the main selling areas was 2.95 yuan/jin, up 0.06 yuan/jin from last Friday; the futures price of the main egg contract 2601 was 3293 yuan/500 kg, up 109 yuan/500 kg from last Friday; the basis of the main contract was - 653 yuan/500 kg, 49 yuan/500 kg weaker than last Friday [6][60][80]. 3.2.2 Fundamental Data Review - Supply - related indicators: The national weekly utilization rate of breeding eggs for laying hens remained unchanged at 57.00%; the average price of laying - hen chicks remained stable at 2.70 yuan/head; the average price of culled hens decreased by 0.08 yuan/jin to 3.80 yuan/jin; the culled - hen slaughter volume increased by 1760000 heads to 21.97 million heads; the age of culled hens decreased by 3 days to 489 days [61]. - Demand - related indicators: The egg shipment volume increased by 115.61 tons to 6216.77 tons; the sales volume in the sample sales areas decreased by 37 tons to 7435 tons [61]. - Inventory - related indicators: The production - link inventory decreased by 0.1 - 0.32 days, and the circulation - link inventory decreased by 0.05 - 0.16 days [61]. - Profit - related indicators: The expected profit of laying - hen farming decreased by 4.29 yuan/head to - 27.35 yuan/head; the profit per jin of eggs decreased by 0.01 yuan/jin to - 0.27 yuan/jin [61]. 3.2.3 Weekly Summary and Strategy Suggestions - In the short - term, the supply - demand situation has marginally improved, and egg prices have support at the bottom. In the medium - to - long - term, capacity clearance still takes time [6][80]. - Strategy: Be cautious about chasing long positions on the 01 contract; breeding enterprises can hedge on rallies; be cautiously optimistic about the medium - term and still cautious about the long - term [6][80]. 3.3 Corn 3.3.1 Weekly Market Review - As of November 28, the closing price of corn at Jinzhou Port, Liaoning was 2275 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton from last Friday; the futures price of the main corn contract 2601 was 2244 yuan/ton, up 49 yuan/ton from last Friday; the basis of the main contract was 31 yuan/ton, 6 yuan/ton stronger than last Friday [7][86][105]. 3.3.2 Fundamental Data Review - Supply - related indicators: The national grain - selling progress was 30%, 3 percentage points faster than the same period last year; the grain - selling progress in North China was 28%, 1 percentage point faster than the same period last year; the grain - selling progress in Northeast China was 26%, 4 percentage points faster than the same period last year; the arrival volume at northern ports increased by 23.1 tons to 73 tons; the number of remaining vehicles at Shandong's deep - processing enterprises in the morning increased by 251 vehicles to 804 vehicles [87][88][105]. - Demand - related indicators: The deep - processing enterprise operating rate increased by 0.49% to 61.38%; the corn consumption of deep - processing enterprises increased by 3.84 tons to 129.07 tons; the shipping volume from northern ports increased by 34.4 tons to 74.4 tons [87]. - Inventory - related indicators: The northern - port corn inventory increased by 6 tons to 140 tons, and the southern - port corn inventory decreased by 2.9 tons to 59.9 tons; the corn inventory days of sample feed enterprises increased by 1.6 days to 27.83 days; the corn inventory of sample deep - processing enterprises decreased by 2.9 tons to 269.8 tons [87]. - Profit - related indicators: The pig - farming profit decreased by 12.09 yuan to - 147.99 yuan; the laying - hen farming profit decreased by 4.29 yuan to - 27.35 yuan; the Shandong corn - starch processing profit decreased by 26 yuan/ton to 19 yuan/ton; the theoretical import profit of US corn from the Gulf increased by 103.08 yuan/ton to 315.37 yuan/ton [87]. 3.3.3 Weekly Summary and Strategy Suggestions - In the short - term, there is still selling pressure to release. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose year - on - year, which limits the upside space [7][105]. - Strategy: Be cautious about chasing high prices on the futures market; grain - holding entities can hedge on rallies; the medium - to - long - term demand will gradually recover, but the upside is limited [7][105].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The soybean meal is likely to continue its oscillating trend. The soybean No. 1 contract will experience an oscillatory rebound, while the soybean meal contract will maintain an oscillatory state. This is due to a slight reduction in domestic soybean production, a likely return to normal imports of US soybeans, sufficient domestic soybean supply, an increase in oil mill operating rates, high soybean meal inventories, and strong demand [4][6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Conditions of Soybean No. 1 and Soybean Meal Contracts - The soybean No. 2601 contract is in an oscillatory adjustment. The spot price has slightly increased, with the market price of Fuyin soybeans rising from 4,040 yuan/ton to around 4,060 yuan/ton. The basis of soybean No. 1 oscillates, and the futures price maintains a premium [4]. - The soybean meal 01 contract is also in an oscillatory adjustment. The spot price of soybean meal has slightly decreased, with the price of 43% protein soybean meal in Zhangjiagang dropping from 3,000 yuan/ton to around 2,980 yuan/ton. The basis oscillates, and the futures price maintains a slight premium [4]. Supply - Side Analysis - **Domestic Soybean Production and Inventory**: Domestic soybean production has decreased, and inventory is being depleted. According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs' November report, poor weather in North China has led to a decline in yield, and the total domestic soybean production has been slightly adjusted down by 190,000 tons to 20.9 million tons, still higher than last year. As of November 21, the remaining soybean stocks in Heilongjiang, Anhui, Henan, and Shandong have decreased, and the inventory in Heilongjiang is lower than the same period in previous years, with faster sales [4]. - **Domestic Soybean Imports and Port Inventory**: In October, domestic soybean imports were 9.48 million tons, a 26% decrease from the previous month and a 17.2% increase year - on - year. Under the China - US trade agreement, imports of US soybeans will return to normal. However, due to the 10% basic tariff, the import cost of US soybeans is still higher than that of South American soybeans. As of November 21, the arrival of soybeans at oil mills has increased, while port soybean inventory has decreased [4]. - **US Soybean Market**: The US Department of Agriculture's November supply - demand report has adjusted down the yield and total production of US soybeans, as well as the ending inventory. The South American production remains unchanged, and the global ending inventory has been further reduced. The market is waiting for China's soybean purchases to be gradually implemented [5]. - **Oil Mill Operations and Soybean Meal Inventory**: The operating rate of oil mills has increased, and soybean meal inventory has further increased. With the large - scale import of US soybeans and a significant decrease in the cost of Brazilian soybeans, the profit margin of oil mills has improved. As of November 21, the operating rate of oil mills was 64.22%, the soybean crushing volume was 2.3344 million tons, the soybean meal production was 1.844 million tons, and the oil mill soybean meal inventory was 1.1515 million tons, all showing an upward trend. The unexecuted contracts for soybean meal were 4.5951 million tons, a decrease from the previous period. The inventory days of soybean meal in feed mills were 7.98 days, also showing a decline [5][6]. Demand - Side Analysis - **Feed Demand**: Feed demand is relatively strong. In the livestock farming sector, pig prices are low, and farming is suffering significant losses. The adjustment of the breeding sow inventory is slow. In the poultry sector, egg prices have dropped, and farming is in a continuous loss state, with an increase in culling. In October, the feed production was 29.07 million tons, a decrease from the previous month but a 6% increase year - on - year [6].

Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Agricultural products [1] - Date: November 14, 2025 [1] - Research team: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3][4] Group 2: Fats and Oils Core Viewpoint - The trends of the three major fats and oils are differentiated. Palm oil lacks driving forces and continues to fluctuate weakly. Rapeseed oil is policy - dominated, and in the short - term, with inventory depletion and tight spot supplies, it is mainly a long - position configuration. Soybean oil fluctuates in the range of 8000 - 8400, with a bottom but limited upside due to high inventory [9] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market review**: Palm oil is the weakest among the three major fats and oils, showing a fluctuating and weak pattern. Soybean oil futures rebounded slightly, and rapeseed oil is strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term [8][9] - **Operation suggestions**: For palm oil, wait for clearer guidance; for rapeseed oil, take a long - position configuration; for soybean oil, expect it to fluctuate in the 8000 - 8400 range [9] 2. Core Points - **Domestic spot changes**: As of November 14, 2025, the prices of East China first - grade soybean oil, East China third - grade rapeseed oil, and South China 24 - degree palm oil all increased weekly, and their basis also increased [10] - **Domestic inventory of the three major fats and oils**: As of the end of the 45th week of 2025, the total inventory of the three major edible oils decreased weekly, with soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil all showing inventory declines [22] - **Domestic supply of fats and oils and oilseeds**: The soybean opening rate of major domestic soybean oil plants decreased compared to last week, and the rapeseed opening rate of major domestic oil plants was almost at a standstill. The import volume of soybeans and rapeseed in 2025 showed different trends [25][29] - **Palm oil dynamics**: In October 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production, exports, and inventory increased, while imports decreased. From November 1 - 10, production decreased. India's palm oil imports in October decreased [32][33] - **CFTC positions**: Relevant position charts are provided, but no specific analysis content is given [44] Group 3: Live Pigs Core Viewpoint - On the supply side, in the long - term, pig slaughter may increase slightly until the first half of next year; in the short - term, the planned slaughter volume in November decreased month - on - month, but the daily average remained the same. On the demand side, secondary fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see state, and terminal consumption may gradually improve. Overall, the spot market will fluctuate, and the futures market will be weak in the medium - to - long - term [95][96] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Spot market**: The average national live pig slaughter price fluctuated weakly this week, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.55%. The expected cost of pig fattening showed different trends, and the breeding profit decreased [48] - **Futures market**: As of Thursday this week, the main live pig futures contract LH2601 fluctuated and declined, with a closing price of 11860 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 0.67% [49] 2. Fundamental Overview - **Long - term supply: Breeding sow inventory**: The price of binary sows remained stable this week. As of the end of September 2025, the inventory of breeding sows decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. Different data sources have different estimations of future pig slaughter [54][58] - **Medium - term supply: Piglet inventory**: The average market sales price of 15 - kg piglets increased this week. As of October, the inventory of piglets in sample enterprises increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, and future pig slaughter is expected to increase [71] - **Short - term supply: Large - pig inventory, hoarding, and secondary fattening**: As of October, the inventory of large pigs in sample enterprises increased month - on - month. The proportion of large pigs over 140 kg increased, and the proportion of secondary fattening sales decreased. The utilization rate of secondary fattening pens decreased [73][74] - **Current supply: Commercial pig slaughter volume and slaughter weight**: In October 2025, the actual pig sales volume exceeded the planned volume. The planned sales volume in November decreased month - on - month. The average slaughter weight of pigs increased this week [81][82] - **Import supply: Pork imports**: In September 2025, China's pork imports remained the same month - on - month and decreased year - on - year. From January to September, the cumulative import volume decreased year - on - year [84] - **Demand**: Secondary fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see state, and the slaughter enterprise's opening rate increased slightly this week. The national large - scale live pig slaughter volume from January to September 2025 increased year - on - year [90][91] 3. Future Outlook - **Viewpoint**: The spot market will fluctuate, and the futures market will be weak in the medium - to - long - term [95][96] - **Strategy**: Futures investors should wait and see, and breeding enterprises should hold hedging short positions [98] - **Important variables**: Swine fever epidemic, hoarding, and secondary fattening consensus expectations [99] Group 4: Corn Core Viewpoint - On the supply side, new - crop corn has increased production, and the supply is sufficient. Substitute products have reduced price advantages, and future imports may remain low. On the demand side, feed demand is good, but the inventory of feed enterprises is low, and the procurement of deep - processing enterprises is active, but inventory increase is difficult. Overall, the spot price will fluctuate around the cost price, and the futures price will be affected by multiple factors [141] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Spot market**: This week, the corn price was strong. In the Northeast, North Port traders raised prices to stimulate arrivals; in North China, farmers were reluctant to sell, and deep - processing enterprises raised prices to purchase; in the sales area, prices increased due to cost factors [100] - **Futures market**: As of November 13, the main Dalian futures contract 2601 closed at 2186 yuan/ton, up 1.5% from last Thursday [101] 2. Fundamental Analysis - **Corn supply**: This week, the grain sales progress slowed down, and the overall progress was faster than the same period last year. The inventory of northern and southern ports increased [105][108] - **Domestic substitutes**: This week, the wheat price fluctuated weakly. The corn price was 272 yuan/ton lower than the wheat price [109] - **Import substitute grains**: In September 2025, China's import volume of grains increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The import volume of different grains showed different trends. The import profit of Brazilian corn was high, but imports may remain low in the future [110][120] - **Feed demand**: In September 2025, the national industrial feed production increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The proportion of corn in feed decreased. Pig slaughter is expected to increase slightly, and feed production is expected to continue to increase [121][129] - **Deep - processing demand**: Recently, the corn starch industry's production profit was good, and the opening rate increased. The processing profit of starch enterprises in different regions changed differently, and the inventory of deep - processing enterprises decreased [131][133] - **Supply - demand balance sheet**: In the 2025/26 period, China's corn planting area, yield, and consumption are expected to increase, and the inventory is expected to increase [137] 3. Future Outlook and Strategy - **Viewpoint**: The spot price will fluctuate around the cost price, and the futures price will be affected by multiple factors [141] - **Strategy**: Spot enterprises should replenish inventory appropriately, and futures investors should hold long positions and set stop - losses [142] - **Important variables**: Policies on purchasing, selling, and storing, tariff policies, geopolitical situations, and weather [143] Group 5: Soybean Meal Core Viewpoint - The external market of soybean meal is close to a short - term high, and the domestic market is cautiously bullish in the short - term. The risk lies in the possibility that China may only purchase a small amount of US soybeans in the future [146][147] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions - **Spot market**: As of November 14, the coastal soybean meal price increased slightly [145] - **Futures market**: The external market of US soybeans was strong, and the domestic soybean meal rose due to cost - push factors. In the short - term, it should be treated with caution and bullishness [146][147] 2. Core Points - **Soybean planting**: In the USDA September report, the new - crop US soybean planting and harvest area decreased year - on - year, and the yield and inventory were adjusted. The Brazilian and Argentine soybean yields are expected to increase. The US soybean harvest is almost complete, and the Brazilian and Argentine soybean planting progress is different [148][150] - **US soybean exports**: As of September 25, the US soybean export volume decreased year - on - year. After the Sino - US agreement, there are uncertainties about future Chinese purchases [155] - **Domestic soybean imports and crushing**: As of November 13, the crushing profit of imported soybeans was negative. The soybean crushing volume and opening rate decreased. The soybean import volume in October decreased month - on - month and increased year - on - year. The port soybean inventory will be high in the short - term and then decrease [166][168] - **Soybean meal trading and inventory**: As of November 7, the domestic soybean meal inventory decreased week - on - week and increased year - on - year. The trading was not active in October, and the terminal demand is expected to be good [172] - **Basis and inter - month spreads**: As of November 13, the soybean meal 01 contract basis decreased, and the 1 - 5 spread was stable. The 01 contract is relatively strong, and the 1 - 5 spread may increase [175] - **Domestic registered warehouse receipts**: As of November 13, the domestic soybean meal registered warehouse receipts were at a relatively high level in the same period of history [180] Group 6: Eggs Core Viewpoint - The spot market will adjust narrowly at a low level next week. The futures market is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short - term. Long positions in the far - month contracts can be considered at low prices, and a reverse spread between the near - and far - month contracts is appropriate [183] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions - **Spot market**: The spot market weakened this week, and it is expected to adjust narrowly at a low level next week [183] - **Futures market**: The futures market declined this week, with the near - month contracts falling more. In the future, the far - month contracts may have opportunities [183] 2. Data Summary - **Inventory and replenishment**: As of the end of October 2025, the inventory of laying hens decreased month - on - month and increased year - on - year. The egg - chick replenishment momentum slowed down, and the inventory structure changed [184][186] - **Cost, income, and breeding profit**: As of November 13, the egg price decreased, the feed cost remained stable, the egg - chick price decreased, the breeding profit was at a historically low level but improved compared to last week [189]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View New grain harvest is in the second half, with significant pressure from increased production in Northeast China and damaged grain quality due to mold in North China. Demand is strong, and there may be a shortage of high - quality corn in the later period. It is recommended that deep - processing enterprises buy corn on dips, feed enterprises buy high - quality wet grain on dips, and traders make purchases as needed [7]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Price and Basis - Corn main contract 2601 oscillated and stabilized. Spot prices were stable with a slight increase. The flat - hatch price of corn in Bayuquan rose from 2150 yuan/ton to around 2180 yuan/ton, and the arrival price of corn at Shekou Port remained stable at around 2310 yuan/ton. The corn basis oscillated, with the futures slightly at a discount. - Starch main contract 2601 stopped falling and rebounded. The starch price of Weifang Jinyu remained stable at around 2800 yuan/ton, and the basis weakened oscillating [4]. Supply - side Situation - **Grain Quality Differentiation**: In the second half of the autumn harvest, grain quality differentiated. Corn production increased in Northeast China, and the harvest was nearing completion with good quality but pressure from increased supply. In North China and the Huang - Huai region, previous continuous rainy weather led to poor grain quality such as mold and germination. High - quality corn in Northeast China was favored, and the public auction of China Grain Reserves Corporation had a large - volume transaction. On October 20, 14,217 tons were put up for auction and all were sold [4]. - **Channel Inventory**: As of October 17, the corn inventory in the northern ports was 959,000 tons and continued to rise; the weekly shipping volume reached a high of 804,000 tons. The domestic - trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port continued to decline to 118,000 tons, while the foreign - trade corn inventory rebounded to 362,000 tons. The inventory of downstream enterprises varied. The corn inventory of deep - processing enterprises increased, reaching 2.622 million tons as of October 24, while the corn inventory of feed enterprises decreased to 24.04 days, remaining at a low level in recent years [5]. - **Grain Substitution and Imports**: The price difference between wheat and corn widened to around 200, and wheat lost its substitution advantage. The auction of policy rice stopped. Domestic corn imports remained at a low level. In September, 60,000 tons of corn were imported, a year - on - year decrease of 80.7%; from January to September, a total of 936,000 tons of corn were imported, a year - on - year decrease of 92.7%. Due to the uncertainty of Sino - US trade negotiations, imports were expected to remain low [5]. - **Foreign Market**: The US corn in the foreign market oscillated and rebounded. There was significant pressure from the concentrated harvest of US corn, and production increased. Due to the US government shutdown, the US Department of Agriculture's reports were suspended [5]. Demand - side Situation - **Feed Demand**: Pig prices were low, and pig farming suffered large losses. As of October 17, the profit of purchasing piglets for fattening was - 375.29 yuan per head, and the self - breeding and self - fattening profit was - 244.7 yuan per head. Even leading pig enterprises such as Muyuan had started to incur losses. Policy regulation of production capacity was lagging and insufficient, and short - term inventory reduction was difficult. Although the inventory of breeding sows had been adjusted downward, the adjustment was small, and the overall progress was slow, far from the regulation target. Pig inventory might still increase inertia. In the poultry sector, egg prices fell again, and egg - chicken farming suffered losses again. The inventory of laying hens in production increased in September. The loss and cycle of egg - chicken farming were insufficient, leading to a delay in production - capacity adjustment. In September, the feed production volume was 30.36 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.4% and a year - on - year increase of 7.9%; from January to September, the cumulative production volume was 246.54 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.9%. Feed demand remained strong [6]. - **Deep - processing Demand**: The demand of deep - processing enterprises might pick up, and the peak season was gradually approaching. A large amount of low - priced moldy corn could only enter the deep - processing sector, significantly reducing the cost of deep - processing enterprises. The starch - processing profit was fully profitable, and the operating rate increased. As of October 17, the operating rate of starch - processing enterprises was 55.62%, showing an overall upward trend recently. Starch inventory decreased. Some alcohol - processing enterprises had profits, and the operating rate increased to 61.67%, also showing an overall upward trend recently. The operating rate of downstream starch - sugar enterprises was weak, while that of paper - making enterprises was strong [7].

Group 1: European Natural Gas Market - The European natural gas prices have surged significantly this year due to the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war [1] - In 2021, natural gas accounted for approximately 25% of Europe's energy consumption, with over 60% of its supply being imported, about 50% of which came from Russia [1] - The Nord Stream 1 pipeline had a normal annual transmission capacity of around 55 billion cubic meters, representing about 30% of Russia's pipeline gas supply to Europe in 2021 [1] Group 2: Chemical Industry Impact - The chemical industry relies heavily on natural gas, both as a primary energy source and as a key raw material for certain chemical products [1] - In Germany, nearly 40% of the industrial demand for natural gas comes from the chemical and petrochemical sectors, which alone account for 14% of the downstream demand structure for natural gas [1] - Due to the current tight supply and high prices of natural gas in Europe, some chemical companies have reduced or halted production [1] Group 3: Vitamin Production and Demand - Over 40% of the global production capacity for Vitamin A and about 30% for Vitamin E is located in Europe, which may tighten further if the energy crisis persists, supporting prices [4] - The downstream demand for Vitamin A primarily comes from animal feed, accounting for 84.81%, while Vitamin E's demand also largely stems from feed, at around 70% [4] - Global feed production has maintained low but stable growth over the past three years, with China's feed production reaching 261 million tons in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 8.94% [4] Group 4: Pig and Poultry Feed Market - In 2021, pig feed accounted for approximately 45% of China's total feed production, while poultry feed represented about 41% [6] - The poultry farming cycle is often influenced by the pig farming cycle, with a recovery in pig and breeding sow inventories observed since 2020 after a decline due to African swine fever [6] - As of the end of 2021, the inventory of pigs and breeding sows reached 449 million and 43.29 million heads, respectively, with rising pig prices improving farming profitability and encouraging farmers to increase stock [6]