Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - Due to geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, it is recommended to participate with a light position or stay on the sidelines [3] - For short - term, risk - takers can try to go long on the 2510 contract around 1300; for arbitrage, it is advisable to stay on the sidelines or try with a light position; for long - term, take profit when the contracts rise and wait for a pullback to determine the subsequent direction [4] Summary by Related Content Shipping Index - On August 15, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1052.5 points, down 0.1% from the previous period; the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2235.48 points, down 2.7%; the NCFI for the European route was 1188.7 points, down 5.5%; the SCFIS for the US West route was 1082.14 points, down 4.2%; the NCFI for the US West route was 1042.91 points, down 5.9% [1] - On August 15, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1460.19 points, down 29.49 points from the previous period; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1193.34 points, down 0.6%; the SCFI for the European route was 1820 USD/TEU, down 7.2%; the CCFI for the European route was 1790.47 points, down 0.5%; the SCFI for the US West route was 1759 USD/FEU, down 3.5%; the CCFI for the US West route was 981.1 points, down 5.9% [1] Economic Data - In July, the eurozone's manufacturing PMI was 49.8, the service PMI was 51.2, and the composite PMI was 51, all higher than expected. The SENTIX investor confidence index jumped to 4.5, the highest since April 2022 [2] - China's manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [2] - In July, the US S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 49.5 (expected 52.7), the service PMI was 55.2, and the composite PMI was 54.6, the highest since December 2024 [2] Market Conditions - Sino - US tariff extension continues with no substantial progress in negotiations. The tariff war has become a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries, and the spot price has slightly declined [3] - On August 15, the main contract 2510 closed at 1373.6, up 1.10%, with a trading volume of 31,100 lots and an open interest of 54,900 lots, a decrease of 1839 lots from the previous day [3] - Market pessimism has been repaired, some short - sellers have taken profits and left the market, the spot freight rate has stabilized, and the futures market has fluctuated widely. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [3] Trading Strategies - Short - term: Risk - takers can try to go long on the 2510 contract around 1300, pay attention to subsequent market trends, and set stop - losses [4] - Arbitrage: Due to the volatile international situation, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines or try with a light position [4] - Long - term: Take profit when the contracts rise, wait for a pullback to stabilize, and then determine the subsequent direction [4] Contract Adjustments - The daily price limit for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 18% [4] - The company's margin for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 28% [4] - The daily opening limit for all contracts from 2508 to 2606 is 100 lots [4] Geopolitical News - On the evening of the 16th local time, regarding the possible restart of the Gaza cease - fire negotiations, the Israeli Prime Minister's Office stated that Israel's condition for reaching an agreement is the one - time release of all Israeli detainees and the agreement must meet Israel's conditions for ending the war [5] - On the 13th local time, the Hamas delegation held talks with the Egyptian intelligence chief in Cairo on promoting the cease - fire in Gaza. Hamas hopes to resume cease - fire negotiations as soon as possible [5] Shipping Industry Forecast - Global container shipping volume is expected to grow by 3% year - on - year in 2025 and 2026 after a 6% increase in 2024. The global container fleet may not scrap any capacity in 2025. The global ship delivery volume is expected to be 1.8 million TEUs in 2025 and 1.6 million TEUs in 2026. There are currently 9.3 million TEUs in global ship orders, accounting for 29% of the global fleet, up from 27% in 2024 [5]