欧元区7月制造业PMW和值为49.8、高于预期的49.7，前值为49.5。 欧元区7月服务业PWM值达51.2，超出预期的50.7，前直是50.5。 欧元区7月综合 PMW加值为51．高于预期的50.8，前值为50.6。欧元区7月SENTIX投资者信心指数跃升至4.5，显著高于6月的0.2和市场预期的1.1，创2022年4月以来最 高水平。 7月制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.3%，比上月下降0.4个百分点，制造业景气水平有所回落。 2025年8月18日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) 现货指数跌势开始,盘面提前兑现现货降价,近期波动较大,不建议继续加仓,设置好止损, SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 8月15日 8月11日 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（综合指数）1052.5点，较上期下跌0.1% 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（欧洲航线）2235.48点，较上期下跌2.7% 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（欧洲航线）1188.7点，较上期下跌5.5% 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（美西航线）1082.14点，较上期下跌4.2% 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（美西航线）1042.91点，较上期 ...

Market Overview - The market continues to operate in an upward trend, with the core observation variable being whether the market's profit-making effect can be sustained. As long as the profit-making effect remains positive, mid-term incremental capital is expected to continue entering the market [1][2][7] - The current WIND All A trend line is around 5625 points, with a profit-making effect value of 3.73%, which is significantly positive. It is recommended to hold positions patiently and maintain a high allocation until the profit-making effect turns negative [1][2][7] Industry Allocation - From a mid-term perspective, the industry allocation continues to recommend sectors that are experiencing a turnaround, specifically Hong Kong stocks in innovative pharmaceuticals and securities. The upward trend is still ongoing. Additionally, sectors benefiting from policy support, such as photovoltaics, coal, and non-ferrous metals, are expected to maintain an upward trajectory [3][7] - The TWO BETA model continues to recommend the technology sector, with a focus on military and computing power [2][3][7] Performance Metrics - The Davis Double Strategy has achieved a cumulative absolute return of 41.19% this year, exceeding the benchmark by 26.47%. This week, the strategy outperformed the benchmark by 1.62% [8][22] - The net profit gap strategy has achieved a cumulative absolute return of 42.83% this year, with a benchmark excess return of 28.11% [12][16] - The enhanced CSI 300 strategy has achieved an excess return of 19.88% relative to the CSI 300 index this year, with a weekly excess return of 0.01% [17][20]

| | | | '/ V & SDIC FUTURES | 操作评级 | 2025年08月12日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 | ★☆☆ | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热卷 | ★☆☆ | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | ☆☆☆ | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | ★☆☆ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ★☆☆ | | | 證硅 | ★☆☆ | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | ★☆★ | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【钢材】 今日盘面震荡走强。螺纹表需、产量均有所上升，库存继续累积。热卷表需明显回落，产量也有所下滑，库存继续累积。铁水 产量温和回落，整体维持高位，低库存格局下，市场负反馈压力不大，关注后期唐山等地限产力度。从下游行业看，地产投资 继续大幅下滑，基建增速放缓，制造业景气程度放缓，内需整体依然偏弱，钢 ...

来源：量化先行者 1.市场继续运行在上行趋势格局，核心观察变量在于市场赚钱效应能否持续，只要赚钱效应为正，增量资金有望持续入场。当前WIND全A趋势线位于 5540点附近，赚钱效应值为2.30%，显著为正，在赚钱效应转负之前，建议耐心持有，保持高仓位； 2.戴维斯双击本周超额基准1.32%，本年累计绝对收益33.83%；沪深300增强本周超额基准1.77%，本年累计超额收益19.41%；净利润断层本周超额基 准-0.26%，本年累计绝对收益37.50%。 上行趋势不改，行业如何轮动？ 市场整体（wind全A指数）：上行趋势 仓位建议：80% 市场大势：择时体系信号显示，均线距离6.92%，距离绝对值显著大于3%，市场继续运行在上行趋势格局。市场进入上行趋势，核心观察变量在于市场赚 钱效应能否持续，只要赚钱效应为正，中期增量资金有望持续入场。短期而言，中美关税是否最终继续延期有望在下周落地，若如期延续，市场风险偏好 有望上行；当前WIND全A趋势线位于5540点附近，赚钱效应值为2.30%，显著为正，在赚钱效应转负之前，建议耐心持有，保持高仓位。 行业配置：中期角度行业配置继续推荐困境反转型板块，推荐港股创新药 ...