Group 1: Report Core View - MSC announced a suspension plan for the National Day holiday, and the market rebounded sharply yesterday, in line with the daily report's expectations. Due to large recent fluctuations, it is not recommended to increase positions, and stop - loss should be set. Considering geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, it is advisable to participate with a light position or stay on the sidelines [2][4] - Although the latest SCFIS index dropped significantly, the market quickly rose due to the intensification of the Middle - East situation and high bullish sentiment. Then, after some funds left the market, the market slightly declined and then fluctuated. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [4] Group 2: Shipping Index Data SCFIS and NCFI - On September 1, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1773.60 points, down 10.9% from the previous period; the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the European route was 929.56 points, down 14.23% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US West route was 1013.90 points, down 2.6% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US West route was 1396.85 points, up 44.97% from the previous period. On August 29, the NCFI (composite index) was 1098.17 points, up 6.02% from the previous period [2] SCFI and CCFI - On August 29, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1445.06 points, up 29.70 points from the previous period; the SCFI for the European route was 1481 USD/TEU, down 11.21% from the previous period; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1156.32 points, down 1.6% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1685.80 points, down 4.1% from the previous period; the SCFI for the US West route was 1923 USD/FEU, up 16.97% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US West route was 774.39 points, down 3.1% from the previous period [2] Group 3: Economic Data Eurozone - In August, the preliminary Eurozone manufacturing PMI was 50.5 (estimated 49.5, previous 49.8), the preliminary services PMI was 50.7 (estimated 50.8, previous 51), the preliminary composite PMI rose to 51.1 (higher than July's 50.9, the highest since May 2024, higher than the expected 50.7), and the Sentix investor confidence index was - 3.7 (expected 8, previous 4.5). In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [2] US - In August, the preliminary US S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 53.3 (39 - month high, estimated 49.5, previous 49.8), the preliminary services PMI was 55.4 (estimated 54.2, previous 55.7), and the Markit manufacturing PMI was 53.3 (the highest since May 2022, expected 49.7, previous 49.8) [3] Group 4: Market and Trading Information Futures Market - On September 2, the closing price of the main contract 2510 was 1340.7, up 3.62%, with a trading volume of 77,900 lots and an open interest of 54,100 lots, an increase of 1886 lots from the previous day [4] Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: The main contract is weak, while the far - month contracts are strong. Risk - takers are advised to lightly test long positions around 1300 for the 2510 contract and increase long positions around 1600 for the 2512 contract. Follow - up market trends should be monitored, and holding losing positions is not recommended. Stop - loss should be set. - Arbitrage strategy: Amid international turmoil, each contract follows seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position. - Long - term strategy: For each contract, it is recommended to take profits when the price rises and wait for the price to stabilize after a pull - back before determining the subsequent direction [5] Contract Rules - The daily price limit for contracts from 2508 to 2606 has been adjusted to 18%. The margin for these contracts has been adjusted to 28%. The daily opening limit for all contracts from 2508 to 2606 is 100 lots [5] Group 5: Geopolitical Events - On September 1, the Houthi armed forces in Yemen launched a missile at an Israeli oil tanker in the northern Red Sea. On the night of September 1, there were explosions in multiple areas of Syria, including the western rural area of Daraa Province in the south, most blocks of Aleppo City in the north, and near Jableh City in Latakia Province in the west [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the reports [1][2][3] Core Views - Due to the repeated Middle - East situation, current prices are falling, increasing short - selling sentiment. With large recent fluctuations, it's not recommended to increase positions, and stop - losses should be set [1] - Amid geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, the trading is difficult, so it's advisable to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines [3] - In the short - term, the main contract is weak while far - month contracts are stronger. Risk - takers can try to go long lightly at around 1300 for the 2510 contract and around 1750 for the 2512 contract. Keep an eye on the subsequent market trend and don't hold losing positions, setting stop - losses [3] - For the arbitrage strategy, given the volatile international situation, each contract maintains a seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It's recommended to wait and see or try with light positions [3] - In the long - term, it's suggested to take profits when the contracts rise, wait for the correction to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [3] Summary by Related Information Shipping Industry - **Container Freight Indexes**: On August 15 - 18, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 1052.5 points, down 0.1% from the previous period; the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) (European route) was 2180.17 points, down 2.5%; the NCFI (European route) was 1188.7 points, down 5.5%; the SCFIS (US West route) was 1106.29 points, up 2.2%; the NCFI (US West route) was 1042.91 points, down 5.9%. On August 15, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1460.19 points, down 29.49 points; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1193.34 points, down 0.6%; the SCFI European route price was 1820 USD/TEU, down 7.2%; the CCFI (European route) was 1790.47 points, down 0.5%; the SCFI US West route was 1759 USD/FEU, down 3.5%; the CCFI (US West route) was 981.1 points, down 5.9% [1] Economic Data - **Eurozone**: In July, the manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.8 (expected 49.7, previous 49.5), the services PMI preliminary value was 51.2 (expected 50.7, previous 50.5), the composite PMI preliminary value was 51 (expected 50.8, previous 50.6), and the SENTIX investor confidence index rose to 4.5, the highest since April 2022 [2] - **China**: The manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, 0.4 percentage points lower than the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity [2] - **US**: In July, the S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.5 (expected 52.7, previous 52.9), the services PMI preliminary value was 55.2 (expected 53, previous 52.9), and the Markit composite PMI preliminary value was 54.6, the highest since December 2024 [2] Futures Market - **Contract Information**: On August 21, the main contract 2510 closed at 1325.0, down 2.49%, with a trading volume of 3.50 million lots and an open interest of 5.43 million lots, an increase of 2566 lots from the previous day. The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 18%, the company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 28%, and the daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 was 100 lots [3] Geopolitical and Trade - **Middle - East Situation**: The cease - fire in Gaza may fail again, the spot price is falling, and short - selling sentiment is rising. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [1][3] - **US - China Tariffs**: The extension of US - China tariffs continues, and the negotiation has no substantial progress. The tariff war has evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries, and the current spot price has slightly decreased [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - Due to geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, it is recommended to participate with a light position or stay on the sidelines [3] - For short - term, risk - takers can try to go long on the 2510 contract around 1300; for arbitrage, it is advisable to stay on the sidelines or try with a light position; for long - term, take profit when the contracts rise and wait for a pullback to determine the subsequent direction [4] Summary by Related Content Shipping Index - On August 15, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1052.5 points, down 0.1% from the previous period; the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2235.48 points, down 2.7%; the NCFI for the European route was 1188.7 points, down 5.5%; the SCFIS for the US West route was 1082.14 points, down 4.2%; the NCFI for the US West route was 1042.91 points, down 5.9% [1] - On August 15, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1460.19 points, down 29.49 points from the previous period; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1193.34 points, down 0.6%; the SCFI for the European route was 1820 USD/TEU, down 7.2%; the CCFI for the European route was 1790.47 points, down 0.5%; the SCFI for the US West route was 1759 USD/FEU, down 3.5%; the CCFI for the US West route was 981.1 points, down 5.9% [1] Economic Data - In July, the eurozone's manufacturing PMI was 49.8, the service PMI was 51.2, and the composite PMI was 51, all higher than expected. The SENTIX investor confidence index jumped to 4.5, the highest since April 2022 [2] - China's manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [2] - In July, the US S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 49.5 (expected 52.7), the service PMI was 55.2, and the composite PMI was 54.6, the highest since December 2024 [2] Market Conditions - Sino - US tariff extension continues with no substantial progress in negotiations. The tariff war has become a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries, and the spot price has slightly declined [3] - On August 15, the main contract 2510 closed at 1373.6, up 1.10%, with a trading volume of 31,100 lots and an open interest of 54,900 lots, a decrease of 1839 lots from the previous day [3] - Market pessimism has been repaired, some short - sellers have taken profits and left the market, the spot freight rate has stabilized, and the futures market has fluctuated widely. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [3] Trading Strategies - Short - term: Risk - takers can try to go long on the 2510 contract around 1300, pay attention to subsequent market trends, and set stop - losses [4] - Arbitrage: Due to the volatile international situation, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines or try with a light position [4] - Long - term: Take profit when the contracts rise, wait for a pullback to stabilize, and then determine the subsequent direction [4] Contract Adjustments - The daily price limit for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 18% [4] - The company's margin for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 28% [4] - The daily opening limit for all contracts from 2508 to 2606 is 100 lots [4] Geopolitical News - On the evening of the 16th local time, regarding the possible restart of the Gaza cease - fire negotiations, the Israeli Prime Minister's Office stated that Israel's condition for reaching an agreement is the one - time release of all Israeli detainees and the agreement must meet Israel's conditions for ending the war [5] - On the 13th local time, the Hamas delegation held talks with the Egyptian intelligence chief in Cairo on promoting the cease - fire in Gaza. Hamas hopes to resume cease - fire negotiations as soon as possible [5] Shipping Industry Forecast - Global container shipping volume is expected to grow by 3% year - on - year in 2025 and 2026 after a 6% increase in 2024. The global container fleet may not scrap any capacity in 2025. The global ship delivery volume is expected to be 1.8 million TEUs in 2025 and 1.6 million TEUs in 2026. There are currently 9.3 million TEUs in global ship orders, accounting for 29% of the global fleet, up from 27% in 2024 [5]

Market Overview - The market continues to operate in an upward trend, with the core observation variable being whether the market's profit-making effect can be sustained. As long as the profit-making effect remains positive, mid-term incremental capital is expected to continue entering the market [1][2][7] - The current WIND All A trend line is around 5625 points, with a profit-making effect value of 3.73%, which is significantly positive. It is recommended to hold positions patiently and maintain a high allocation until the profit-making effect turns negative [1][2][7] Industry Allocation - From a mid-term perspective, the industry allocation continues to recommend sectors that are experiencing a turnaround, specifically Hong Kong stocks in innovative pharmaceuticals and securities. The upward trend is still ongoing. Additionally, sectors benefiting from policy support, such as photovoltaics, coal, and non-ferrous metals, are expected to maintain an upward trajectory [3][7] - The TWO BETA model continues to recommend the technology sector, with a focus on military and computing power [2][3][7] Performance Metrics - The Davis Double Strategy has achieved a cumulative absolute return of 41.19% this year, exceeding the benchmark by 26.47%. This week, the strategy outperformed the benchmark by 1.62% [8][22] - The net profit gap strategy has achieved a cumulative absolute return of 42.83% this year, with a benchmark excess return of 28.11% [12][16] - The enhanced CSI 300 strategy has achieved an excess return of 19.88% relative to the CSI 300 index this year, with a weekly excess return of 0.01% [17][20]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread Steel: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Hot Rolled Coil: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Iron Ore: ☆☆☆, meaning the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the current trading floor has poor operability, so it's advisable to wait and see [1] - Coke: ★☆☆, showing a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Silicon Manganese: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆★, with unclear implications from the given star description [1] Core Viewpoints - The steel market is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger short - term trend due to positive market sentiment and strong furnace material prices, despite weak domestic demand [2] - The iron ore market is likely to oscillate at a high level as its fundamental contradictions are limited, with improved market sentiment and short - term reduced uncertainty [3] - The coke and coking coal markets have their prices affected by the "anti - involution" policy expectations, with increased short - term volatility and relatively limited downward space [4][6] - The silicon manganese and ferrosilicon markets' prices are influenced by the "anti - involution" policy expectations, and attention should be paid to the pressure near previous highs [7][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Thread steel: Surface demand and production increased, inventory continued to accumulate. Hot - rolled coil: Surface demand significantly declined, production decreased, and inventory continued to accumulate. Iron water production declined moderately but remained high. Market negative feedback pressure is low. Domestic demand is weak, and exports are relatively high. Steel prices are expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger short - term trend [2] Iron Ore - Supply: Global shipments decreased slightly month - on - month but were stronger year - on - year. Domestic arrivals decreased month - on - month, and port inventories stabilized and increased. Demand: Terminal demand is weak, and blast furnace iron water decreased slightly. Steel mills have high profit ratios and limited motivation to cut production. The market is expected to oscillate at a high level [3] Coke - Due to approaching major events, there are expectations of production restrictions in East China coking plants. The sixth round of price increases is proposed. Profits improved, and daily production increased slightly. Inventory decreased, and traders' purchasing willingness is good. Prices are affected by policy expectations, with increased short - term volatility [4] Coking Coal - The market has high expectations for coal over - production inspections. Mine production decreased, and the spot auction market improved. Total inventory decreased, and production - end inventory decreased significantly. Prices are affected by policy expectations, with increased short - term volatility [6] Silicon Manganese - Iron water production remained high. Weekly production increased, but the rate was lower than expected. Manganese ore prices increased slightly. The market is expected to accumulate inventory in the second half of the year. Prices are affected by policy expectations [7] Ferrosilicon - Iron water production decreased slightly but remained above 240. Export demand was about 30,000 tons. Supply increased significantly, and inventory increased slightly. Prices follow the silicon manganese trend and are affected by policy expectations [8]

Market Overview - The market continues to operate in an upward trend, with the core observation variable being whether the market's profit-making effect can be sustained. As long as the profit-making effect remains positive, incremental capital is likely to continue entering the market. The current WIND All A trend line is around 5540 points, with a profit-making effect value of 2.30%, which is significantly positive. It is recommended to hold positions patiently and maintain a high allocation until the profit-making effect turns negative [1][4][8]. Industry Rotation - In terms of industry allocation, the model continues to recommend sectors that are in a turnaround phase, specifically Hong Kong innovative pharmaceuticals and securities, as the upward trend persists. The TWO BETA model continues to recommend the technology sector, with a focus on military and computing power. Short-term signals indicate that the liquor and agriculture sectors are entering a low point in the emotional cycle, which may lead to a rebound [2][4][8]. Performance Metrics - The Davis Double strategy achieved an excess benchmark of 1.32% this week, with a cumulative absolute return of 33.83% for the year. The CSI 300 Enhanced strategy also outperformed the benchmark by 1.77% this week, with a cumulative excess return of 19.41% for the year. The net profit gap strategy had an excess benchmark of -0.26% this week, with a cumulative absolute return of 37.50% for the year [1][9][15]. Valuation Indicators - The overall PE of the WIND All A index is at the 70th percentile, indicating a medium level, while the PB is at the 30th percentile, indicating a relatively low level. Based on short-term trend assessments, the absolute return products with WIND All A as the stock allocation subject are recommended to maintain an 80% allocation [4][6][8].