理财投资模型修正
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负债端视角:理财将如何深刻改变股债格局?
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES· 2025-11-06 12:28
1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report suggests that the expansion of wealth management products represented by "fixed income +" will reshape the stock - bond investment landscape. The market is in the second stage of stock - bond allocation re - balancing, with individual investors represented by wealth management "fixed income +" products taking over the institutional market. Wealth management is undergoing profound changes in both asset and liability ends, and the proportion of equity assets in wealth management products is expected to rise to 4% - 6%, which will bring incremental funds to the equity market [4][8][53]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Wealth Management Corrects Investment Model: Profound Changes at the Asset and Liability Ends - Investor structure: Wealth management products directly meet the allocation needs of residents, with individual investors accounting for over 98%. As of 25H1, the proportion of individual investors in wealth management was much higher than that in public funds [12]. - Three key values of wealth management products: - Excess return of about 1% compared to 3 - year fixed - deposits. Since 2022, the rapid decline in deposit rates has led to the rapid expansion of wealth management scale. The average excess return of wealth management products over 1 - year and 3 - year fixed - deposits since 2023 has been 1.49% and 0.99% respectively [15]. - The maximum tolerable drawdown of the liability end of wealth management products is around 0.5%. After the full implementation of the net - value system in 2022, there were two large - scale drawdowns and redemptions. Since 2023, through various means, the drawdown has been effectively controlled [18]. - The net - value volatility of wealth management products is around 0.6%. In recent years, the volatility of wealth management products has been significantly lower than that of fixed - income funds, and it has decreased significantly after the 2022 redemption wave [21]. 3.2. The Surge of "Fixed Income +" Products: Liabilities Determine Investment, and Wealth Management Returns to the Position of Residents' "Full - Asset Custody" - New growth points: Since this year, "fixed income +" funds and hybrid wealth management products have become new growth points. Currently, there may be a gradual shift from time deposits to money funds, cash wealth management, and then to fixed - income products, "fixed income +" products, and equity products [24]. - Changes in asset characteristics: - For bond - type assets, the coupon rate has decreased, the contribution of capital gains has increased, and the volatility has risen. The proportion of high - coupon (above 3.5%) credit bonds has dropped from 30% - 50% in 2022 to less than 5% currently [28]. - Among other interest - bearing assets, the scale of non - standard assets has been continuously compressed, and the deposit rate has decreased. In 2025H1, the average yield of non - standard assets decreased by 47BP year - on - year [32]. - There is significant room for wealth management to increase its equity asset allocation. In 25Q3, the scale of equity assets after penetration was 720.9 billion yuan, accounting for 2.10% of total investment assets, the lowest since 2021 [35]. 3.3. Product Design Perspective: The Proportion of Wealth Management Equity Assets is Expected to Rise to 4% - 6% - Static calculation: Based on the 2025H1 wealth management asset allocation structure, under the 2.25% performance benchmark, the required annualized return of 2.40% equity assets is 13.83%. If the equity asset proportion gradually rises to 4% and 6%, the required contributions of equity assets are 9.15% and 6.74% respectively [40]. - Dynamic perspective: By constructing an investment portfolio with bond - type assets, cash, non - standard assets, and equity for back - testing, adding 4% or 6% of broad - based equity assets can enhance the portfolio's return while maintaining good risk indicators [42][44]. 3.4. Reshape the Stock - Bond Investment Landscape: Dumbbell - Shaped Wealth Management Products, and the Surge of "Fixed Income +" Affects the Investment Aesthetics of Equity Institutions - Wealth management scale: Considering the maturity of time deposits and the new regulations on public fund redemption fees, the wealth management scale is expected to continue to expand rapidly. It is estimated that the wealth management scale in 2026E and 2027E will be 33.76 trillion and 35.46 trillion respectively, with investment asset increments of 1.74 trillion and 1.83 trillion [49]. - Incremental funds in the equity market: Assuming that the proportion of wealth management equity investment assets gradually rises to 4% and 6%, the annual incremental funds in the equity market in 2026E and 2027E will be 616.796 billion and 832.601 billion respectively [51].