美联储方面，宽松节奏仍在延续 12月10日，美联储下调利率25个基点至3.5%-3.75%，为9月以来第三次降息，年内累计降幅达到75个基点。政策立场已明显向就业风险倾斜，重心从抑制通 胀转向稳就业。 点阵图显示2026年或仅再降息25个基点，市场对宽松环境的定价并未明显修正，美元指数年内下跌约9%，对美元形成持续压力。 瑞郎避险属性在当前环境下进一步放大。受历史背景影响，瑞士央行在外汇市场的干预空间受限，央行主席亦指出，直接干预面临的阻力高于重启负利率。 在全球风险偏好反复波动的背景下，瑞郎持续获得避险资金配置，即便处于零利率水平，仍保持较强需求，对利差交易构成压制。 从经济表现看，瑞士第三季度GDP受到制药行业拖累出现收缩，但制造业和服务业维持增长，对整体经济形成一定缓冲。央行预计2025年经济增速略低于 1.5%。美瑞贸易协议生效后，美国相关关税明显下降，有助于缓解瑞士出口压力，并对瑞郎形成支撑。 技术层面，美元兑瑞郎已跌破20日均线，短期动能偏弱。 周四亚洲交易时段，美元兑瑞郎报0.7880，日内下跌0.0507%，运行区间为0.7871至0.7883。 12月以来，汇价整体呈现震荡下探走势，欧洲时段 ...

Group 1 - The USD/CHF exchange rate is currently stabilizing around 0.8390 after a sharp decline in April, indicating attempts to form a bottom despite ongoing downside risks indicated by technical indicators [1][3] - The weakness in USD/CHF is primarily driven by two factors: lower-than-expected US inflation data and improving global trade relations, which have pressured the dollar [3] - The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April showed a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, down from 2.4% in March and below market expectations, reinforcing expectations for potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3] Group 2 - The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has expressed readiness to intervene in the currency market and may consider further interest rate cuts or even negative interest rates if inflation remains below target levels, indicating concerns over the Swiss franc's strength [3] - The USD/CHF exchange rate is attempting to find a supportive base above the 0.8350 level, which represents a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the last bearish wave [3] - The relative strength index (RSI) has entered an exaggerated oversold level, suggesting the formation of positive divergence, which may indicate a potential bullish correction trend [4]