Group 1 - Global merchandise trade experienced significant growth in early 2025, particularly in Q1, driven by a surge in imports, with the global trade momentum index reaching 103.5, indicating a potential economic recovery [1][3] - The World Trade Organization (WTO) reported that the new export orders index fell below the baseline of 100, suggesting that the momentum of global trade growth may be difficult to sustain, with signs of a slowdown emerging [1][3] - The increase in imports was largely attributed to preemptive stockpiling by countries in response to rising tariff expectations, which temporarily boosted trade but raised concerns about the sustainability of this growth [3][4] Group 2 - The uncertainty in global trade is exacerbated by rising trade barriers and tariff policies, particularly the "reciprocal tariffs" implemented by the U.S., which have shifted from short-term stimuli to long-term structural obstacles [6][4] - The WTO highlighted that the unpredictability of trade policies is a significant factor contributing to the slowdown in global trade, with potential retaliatory measures from other countries further complicating the situation [6][4] - Structural adjustments in economies and shifts in global trade patterns, such as supply chain diversification and the rise of emerging markets, are putting additional pressure on global trade, indicating a possible transition to a new low-growth phase [7][4] Group 3 - The strong growth in global merchandise trade does not necessarily indicate a stable economic recovery, as the underlying complexities and uncertainties in trade policies could lead to a deceleration or contraction in trade growth [9][6] - The international community must recognize the need for stable and sustainable policies to navigate the risks in global trade, rather than relying on short-term stimulus measures [9][6] - The current international landscape presents challenges in finding new growth points amidst uncertainty, emphasizing the importance of proactive measures to ensure long-term stability in global trade [9][6]