Group 1 - Global merchandise trade experienced significant growth in early 2025, particularly in Q1, driven by a surge in imports, with the global trade momentum index reaching 103.5, indicating a potential economic recovery [1][3] - The World Trade Organization (WTO) reported that the new export orders index fell below the baseline of 100, suggesting that the momentum of global trade growth may be difficult to sustain, with signs of a slowdown emerging [1][3] - The increase in imports was largely attributed to preemptive stockpiling by countries in response to rising tariff expectations, which temporarily boosted trade but raised concerns about the sustainability of this growth [3][4] Group 2 - The uncertainty in global trade is exacerbated by rising trade barriers and tariff policies, particularly the "reciprocal tariffs" implemented by the U.S., which have shifted from short-term stimuli to long-term structural obstacles [6][4] - The WTO highlighted that the unpredictability of trade policies is a significant factor contributing to the slowdown in global trade, with potential retaliatory measures from other countries further complicating the situation [6][4] - Structural adjustments in economies and shifts in global trade patterns, such as supply chain diversification and the rise of emerging markets, are putting additional pressure on global trade, indicating a possible transition to a new low-growth phase [7][4] Group 3 - The strong growth in global merchandise trade does not necessarily indicate a stable economic recovery, as the underlying complexities and uncertainties in trade policies could lead to a deceleration or contraction in trade growth [9][6] - The international community must recognize the need for stable and sustainable policies to navigate the risks in global trade, rather than relying on short-term stimulus measures [9][6] - The current international landscape presents challenges in finding new growth points amidst uncertainty, emphasizing the importance of proactive measures to ensure long-term stability in global trade [9][6]

由于供应链进一步分散，全球各地纷纷兴建半导体工厂 半导体产业是一个任何单一国家都无法独立完成的复杂供应链体系。但包括美国在内的各国，推动本土 化生产。"由于政治和地缘政治风险，供应链的分散化趋势正在加剧，整个行业已经进入一个不可预测 的时代"…… 美国商务部日前宣布已开始对半导体和药品进行引入关税前的调查。调查对象包括智能手机等电子设备 在内的半导体供应链，目的是评估是否存在国家安全方面的隐患。 该通知已通过政府公报发出。根据美国《贸易扩展法》第232条规定，总统有权以国家安全为由对进口 实施限制，相关调查结果将在270天内向总统报告。 调查内容包括进口是否过度依赖特定国家等问题，并将在必要时建议采取包括关税或进口配额在内的纠 正措施。最终由总统做出判断。 此次调查的对象除了半导体本身，还包括日本和荷兰在其中具有优势的半导体制造设备、半导体基板 等"衍生产品"，以及内含半导体的"下游产品"。不过，并未具体列出如智能手机等具体产品名称。 在对医药品的调查中，原材料也被纳入范围。美国前总统特朗普于4月14日向媒体表示："关税设得越 高，他们就会越快来到美国"，表现出希望尽早启动关税措施的意愿。 尽管尚未明确任何一 ...