1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US biofuel blending policy has been implemented as expected without additional stimulus. The current structure of palm oil is improving. Amid the current hype of expectations and risk - preference sentiment, it is anticipated that after the war premium fades and oil prices decline, a pressure - release period in April - May will provide room for demand recovery, prompting India to start stocking up. Palm oil prices may then bottom out again and enter a rising cycle led by its own fundamentals, leading into a year full of opportunities for the oil and fat industry in 2027. In the short term, the war premium and bullish sentiment remain, and attention should be paid to the upward trend of energy prices, along with proper position and risk - control operations [2][4][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Last Week's Viewpoints and Logic Palm Oil - The escalation of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East was the dominant factor in palm oil's trend last week. As China's import profit opened up and India's import profit deteriorated, the follow - up increase in both the May - September spread and the unilateral price of the palm oil 05 contract stalled. The weak follow - up increase in origin quotes, which might imply the speed of fundamental repair, suppressed the speculative sentiment driving up the price of oils and fats. The weekly increase was 0.43%, with bullish sentiment still present, and attention should be paid to the upward trend of energy prices [1] Soybean Oil - Tensions in the Iranian situation rapidly pushed up energy prices, which radiated to the cost side of the domestic soybean system through a direct cost - push effect. However, the meeting between Chinese and US leaders was postponed due to the war situation, and the weather for soybean harvesting in South America improved, so the performance of US soybeans remained weak. The opening of the soybean oil export window supported the return of the soybean - palm oil price spread. The weekly increase of soybean oil was 1.05% [1] 3.2 This Week's Viewpoints and Logic Palm Oil - Beyond the internal fundamentals of agricultural products, the main factors are the game between war premium, changes in the interest - rate cut logic, and the liquidity of risk assets. Although the market often uses biodiesel as a bridge for fundamental explanations and connections, the explanatory power of fundamental data for the market is currently sharply reduced. Regarding the increase in palm biodiesel consumption, due to the significant differences between Indonesia's biodiesel operation system and those of Europe and the United States, there will be an additional demand of up to 100,000 tons per month from March to April. Meanwhile, the domestic consumption and exports of Malaysia and Argentina will boost the demand for vegetable oils as a substitute for European energy shortages. Even though the incremental demand that Indonesia can generate is limited, there will be a substitution demand of 100,000 - 200,000 tons per month in Europe, leading to an increase in the international soybean - palm oil price spread. Additionally, given the long - term low POGO spread, the early implementation of B50 is also worth looking forward to, which provides a story for 2027. In terms of production, looking at the long - term, the impact of El Niño remains to be seen. Production has smoothly declined from January to February, and the potential driving factor of lower - than - expected production from March to May last year due to less rainfall may increase. This is the reason for maintaining a long - position strategy before the geopolitical risk decreases. From the perspective of the actual fundamentals of palm oil, the international soybean - palm oil price spread has improved. Even if India maintains an import volume of 500,000 tons from March to May and only starts large - scale purchases in June, the origin will still be in a stage of rapid inventory reduction. At the same time, the price difference between India and Malaysia has increased, and the price of Indonesian fruit bunches has risen. Although the monthly structure still indicates a less - than - ideal current situation, it may strengthen in the next two months due to lower - than - expected supply. It is still believed that speculation on expectations and risk - preference sentiment are the current main themes. However, it is more expected that after the war premium fades and oil prices decline, a suitable pressure - release period in April - May will provide room for the repair of India's import profit, prompt the return of demand, and enable India to enter the stocking cycle. Then, palm oil prices may bottom out again and enter a rising cycle led by its own fundamentals [2] Soybean Oil - The US announced the final biofuel blending obligation plan for 2026 - 2027, which met the previous market speculation and raw - material demand expectations. The previous pricing was relatively sufficient, and there was no unexpected positive stimulus. After US soybean oil broke through the range of 65 - 70 cents, its cost - performance in second - generation biodiesel became comparable to that of Brazilian tallow and was even approaching the cost under China's 30.5% tariff. The fundamental pricing is basically completed, and the price differences among North American soybean oil, Malaysian palm oil, and South American soybean oil will gradually converge. The southern part of Brazil, which previously suffered from water shortages, is expected to receive rainfall, which will help alleviate the losses caused by the previous drought. Argentina will have slightly more than normal precipitation in the next two weeks, and the weather in South American producing areas in the next two weeks is conducive to crop growth. The global soybean inventory is still estimated to be high, and there is pressure on the upper limit of the cost side of US soybeans. Attention should be paid to the results of subsequent Sino - US trade consultations. If China purchases US soybeans, Brazilian soybean premiums will need to be significantly reduced. Currently, the crushing margin is not bad, so there is no driving force for a sharp decline in premiums. Exports of soybean oil to India may support the soybean - palm oil price spread, and after normalization, it will become a link with the international soybean - palm oil market. In the short term, the war premium and bullish sentiment remain, and attention should be paid to the upward trend of energy prices, along with proper position and risk - control operations [4] 3.3盘面基本行情数据 - Palm oil main continuous contract: The opening price was 9,726 yuan/ton, the highest price was 9,960 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 9,464 yuan/ton, the closing price was 9,768 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.43%. The trading volume was 2,018,755 lots, a decrease of 846,521 lots compared to the previous week, and the open interest was 288,414 lots, a decrease of 31,036 lots [7] - Soybean oil main continuous contract: The opening price was 8,646 yuan/ton, the highest price was 8,756 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 8,510 yuan/ton, the closing price was 8,688 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.05%. The trading volume was 2,865,276 lots, a decrease of 266,261 lots compared to the previous week, and the open interest was 537,668 lots, a decrease of 56,428 lots [7] - Rapeseed oil main continuous contract: The opening price was 9,880 yuan/ton, the highest price was 9,986 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 9,665 yuan/ton, the closing price was 9,877 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.23%. The trading volume was 3,589,689 lots, a decrease of 78,167 lots compared to the previous week, and the open interest was 213,002 lots, a decrease of 24,431 lots [7] - Malaysian palm oil main continuous contract: The opening price was 4,574 ringgit/ton, the highest price was 4,652 ringgit/ton, the lowest price was 4,470 ringgit/ton, the closing price was 4,630 ringgit/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.39% [7] - CBOT soybean oil main continuous contract: The opening price was 65.53 cents/pound, the highest price was 69.10 cents/pound, the lowest price was 64.22 cents/pound, the closing price was 67.22 cents/pound, with a weekly increase of 2.58% [7] - Price differences: The rapeseed - soybean 05 price difference decreased by 4.73%, the soybean - palm 05 price difference increased by 0.92%, the palm oil 5 - 9 price difference decreased by 26.67%, the soybean oil 5 - 9 price difference decreased by 27.50%, and the rapeseed oil 5 - 9 price difference decreased by 27.07% [7] - Warehouse receipts: Palm oil warehouse receipts decreased by 621 lots, soybean oil warehouse receipts decreased by 202 lots, and rapeseed oil warehouse receipts decreased by 40 lots [7] 3.4油脂基本面核心数据 - Malaysian palm oil: The production increase rate in March may be limited, and the inventory may rapidly decrease to around 2.1 million tons [9] - Indonesian palm oil: The year - end inventory is expected to return to a moderately abundant level. The price difference between India and Malaysia has recently risen rapidly, the price of fruit bunches in North Sumatra has increased, and the domestic refining profit in Indonesia is at a high level. ITS data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports from March 1 - 25 were 1,414,990 tons, a 38.4% increase compared to the same period last month. The POGO spread has declined [9][10] - India: The import profit of CPO has started to recover, and the CNF price difference between soybean oil and palm oil has increased [12] - EU: In 2026, the cumulative import volume of palm oil has increased by 10,000 tons, and the cumulative import volume of four major oils and fats has increased by 110,000 tons [13]