| 油脂产业期现日报 | | | --- | --- | | H 洋海 Z0019938 2025年12月3日 | | | 田温 | | | 12月2日 12月1日 | | | 0.12% | | | 期价 Y2601 8288 8288 0 0.00% | | | 墓差 Y2601 332 322 10 3.11% | | | = | | | 它車 7419 5469 1950 35.66% | | | 棕櫚油 | | | 12月2日 12月1日 涨跌 涨跌幅 | | | 现价 广东24度 8570 50 0.58% | | | 8652 期价 P2601 68 0.79% | 8720 | | 星差 P2601 -100 -82 -18 -21.95% | | | 仓单 355 352 0 0.00% | | | 菜籽油 | | | 涨跌 12月2日 12月1日 涨跌幅 | | | 现价 江苏三级 10080 10080 0 0.00% | | | 期价 Ol601 9745 9770 -25 -0.26% | | | 其美 Ol601 રૂઝેટ 310 ર્ટ 8.06% | | | 现货基差报价 0 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Corn: The 11 - month corn contract is expected to show an oscillatory downward trend. New corn listing in the production area is expected to increase after mid - September, bringing pressure. Technically, it has been in a downward trend since early September, and short - term attention should be paid to whether the January contract can break through the price low in mid - August. Short - term rebounds after sharp price drops should be watched out for, and a bearish approach is recommended for medium - term operations [1]. - Soybean Meal: The market is expected to oscillate. CBOT soybeans fell due to disappointment with the US biofuel proposal, and the Fed's overnight interest rate cut put pressure on commodities. In the domestic market, the long - short contradiction has intensified. The potential supply gap in the domestic long - term has further narrowed, and short - term participation is recommended [1]. - Edible Oils: The market is expected to oscillate. BMD palm oil rose but was restricted by the strong Malaysian ringgit. Domestic edible oil prices showed a pattern of rising and then falling. The tight rapeseed spot and Malaysian weather still support the market, and a strategy of going long on volatility is recommended [1]. - Eggs: The market is expected to oscillate. The egg futures showed an oscillatory pattern, and the spot price continued to rebound with a narrowing increase. The decline in chick replenishment from May to August may lead to a decrease in new egg - laying capacity from September to December. It is recommended to wait and see and participate with a light position [1][2]. - Pigs: The market is expected to be weakly oscillatory. The pig futures showed an oscillatory downward trend, and the spot price continued to decline. The supply exceeds demand, and the pig price is under pressure. Although the content of the pig production capacity regulation symposium met market expectations, its boost to the market was limited. The pig price may remain weak in the short term, but may be supported by increased demand in the later period [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Information - Palm Oil: According to SGS, Malaysia's palm oil exports from September 1 - 15, 2025 were 404,688 tons, a 24.7% decrease compared to the same period last month. According to AmSpec, the exports were 695,716 tons, a 0.1% decrease. From September 1 - 15, the palm oil yield per unit in Malaysia decreased by 6.94% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.21%, and the production decreased by 8.05% [3]. - Pigs: A pig production capacity regulation enterprise symposium was held in Beijing on September 16. Relevant departments plan to reduce the national breeding sow inventory by about 1 million to about 39.5 million. After completing the weight - reduction task, enterprises should keep the pig slaughter weight at about 120 kg, and the overall slaughter of leading enterprises in 2026 is expected to decrease by 10% year - on - year [3]. Variety Spreads - Contract Spreads: The report provides charts of 1 - 5 spreads for corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs [5][6][14][10]. - Contract Basis: The report provides charts of the basis for corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs [13][16][17][23].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2025-6-17 宏观及EPA利好油脂，关注上涨持续性 油脂：宏观及EPA提案利好油脂，关注上涨持续性 蛋⽩粕：套保压力如期而至，蛋白粕期价面临调整 ⽟⽶/淀粉：现货涨势放缓，盘面偏弱 ⽣猪：需求淡季，猪价仍有制约 橡㬵：情绪支撑尚在，盘面偏强震荡 合成橡㬵：地缘冲突的情绪影响暂时仍存 纸浆：金融市场氛围偏软，纸浆顺势反弹 棉花：驱动较弱，反弹动力不足 ⽩糖：关注下方支撑 原⽊：交割临近，博弈驱强 【异动品种】 油脂观点：宏观及EPA提案利好油脂，关注上涨持续性 主要逻辑：因中东地缘局势紧张、原油价格明显上涨，及EPA生柴提案利好美豆 油需求预期，近日国内外油脂市场明显走强，其中美豆油和国内棕油涨幅较大。 从宏观环境看，近期以伊冲突局势升级，地缘政治局势紧张，原油价格明显上 涨，宏观情绪利好国内外油脂市场。从产业端看，近日EPA提案拟将美国2026年 和2027年生物燃料掺混义务分别提高至56.1亿加仑和58.6亿加仑，较2025年33. 5亿加仑的增幅达67%；且改革RFS的基础规则，建议将进口生物燃料和进口原料 生产的生物燃料的 ...