Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The fourth - quarter supply - demand and timing in 2025 may be comparable to that in 2018. Multiple scenarios are assumed for factors such as US soybean exports, yields, and biodiesel policies, as well as Canadian canola imports, to analyze potential impacts on the market [4][24][51] - It is expected that the prices of soybean and canola oil and meal will fluctuate greatly in the fourth quarter, and trading timing is difficult. Hedging is recommended, and the spread strategy between domestic and imported soybeans can be tried [7] Summary by Directory 1. Price Operating Range 1.1 2025 US Soybean and Soybean Meal Event Review - In 2024/2025, US soybeans had a large harvest, and Brazil's sowing was fast. In 2025, there were multiple rounds of tariff adjustments between China and the US, and the tariff on US soybeans decreased over time. The indicators of US soybeans in USDA's monthly reports were frequently adjusted, with lower production, higher domestic crushing consumption, lower exports, and roughly the same ending stocks compared to previous years [11][15] 1.2 2025 Canadian Rapeseed and Rapeseed Meal Event Review - Since 2024, there have been trade frictions between China and Canada regarding rapeseed. In 2025, the "anti - dumping investigation" and "anti - discrimination investigation" had results, and the investigation period was extended. The domestic rapeseed production was estimated to be stable, and the uncertainty lies in the import volume of Canadian rapeseed [20][22] 2. Supply - demand Overview of US Soybeans and Domestic Soybean Meal 2.1 US Soybeans - According to the USDA's September WASDE report, compared with the previous year, the planted area, harvested area, and ending stocks of US soybeans in 2025/2026 decreased slightly, while the yield per harvested acre and production increased slightly. The domestic crushing consumption increased significantly [23] - Three scenarios are assumed: if the yield per acre is reduced from 53.5 to 51 bushels/acre, the ending stocks will be greatly affected; if the export volume is reduced to a level similar to 2018, the ending stocks will increase; if the EPA reduces the RVO, the crushing volume in the balance sheet will be rewritten, but it is estimated that the crushing volume will not return to the level before 2023 [24][27] 2.2 Chinese Soybeans - According to the September balance sheet of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the import volume of new - crop soybeans in 2025/2026 decreased by about 10 million tons compared with the previous year, and the crushing consumption decreased by 4 million tons. The decrease in crushing consumption is related to the regulation of the pig - breeding industry and the promotion of low - protein diet technology [29][31] 3. Supply - demand Overview of Canadian Rapeseed and Domestic Rapeseed Meal 3.1 Canadian Rapeseed - According to the AAFC's August report, the planted area and harvested area of Canadian rapeseed in 2025 - 2026 decreased, while the yield increased, and the production increased slightly. The export volume decreased, and the ending stocks increased [32] - Two scenarios are assumed: if the export volume increases to the level of 2022/2023, the ending stocks will decrease; if the export volume decreases to the level of 2021/2022, the ending stocks will increase [41] 3.2 Chinese Rapeseed - According to the September forecast, the production of domestic rapeseed in 2025 increased slightly, and the import volume decreased. There is still room for adjustment in the import volume of Canadian rapeseed. Two scenarios are assumed: if the import volume is reduced to the 2019 level, the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has a small downward space; if the import volume is increased to the 2024 level, the spread has a large upward space [43][51] 4. Main Contract Spreads - Not elaborated in detail in the content, only relevant spread charts are mentioned 5. Main Supply - demand Data Overview - A large number of data charts on the production, cost, inventory, and trade of US soybeans, Brazilian soybeans, and Canadian rapeseed are provided, as well as data on domestic soybean and rapeseed processing, consumption, and livestock - breeding inventory [64][73][81]