投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2025-9-26 【异动品种】 油脂观点：关注贸易政策变化，近⽇油脂波动⻛险加⼤ 逻辑：因市场对美豆出口需求滞后的担忧，周三美豆类震荡偏空，昨日国 内油脂反弹。从宏观环境看，因鲍威尔对进一步宽松政策持谨慎态度，周 三美元走强；原油方面，因上周美国原油库存意外下降，及伊拉克、委内 瑞拉和俄罗斯原油出口受阻，周三原油价格上涨。从产业端看，当前美豆 收获进度基本正常，但近期美豆优良率持续下调，且已低于去年同期水 平；天气预报显示未来2周美豆产区降水偏少，后期美豆单产继续下调的 概率较大。今年以来美国生柴产量和对美豆油的使用量同比减少，而市场 对美国生柴政策和美豆出口需求担忧情绪升温。近日阿根廷农产品出口额 或已达70亿美元，其对大豆及衍生品的出口税政策的影响或告一段落。国 内进口大豆到港量预计将季节性下降，国内豆油库存或将逐步见顶。棕油 方面，MPOA和SPPOMA数据分别显示9月1-20日马棕产量环比-4.26%和-7. 89%，ITS和AmSpec数据分别显示9月1-20日马棕出口环比8.7%和8.3%，如 此马棕9月累库幅度或有限。 ...

蛋白粕 | 季报 s 投资咨询业务资格 核心观点 证监许可【2011】1772 号 期货从业资格证号： F03113318 期货投资咨询证书： Z0018777 2025 年 9 月 23 日 远期进口体量尚未定，多种情景推演防风险 2025 年 1-9 月粕类油脂期货行情分析、展望： （一）美豆与豆粕 2025 年四季度供需与择时，或与 2018 四季度，有对比参考性。 2018 年 7 月中国对美豆 25%开始生效，美国 USDA 在月报和农户 MFP 补贴上迅速调整。直至 9 月，美国对中国出口大豆，累计为 0； 中国农业部等专家预估 18/19 全年大豆供给缺口约 500 万吨，但市场 企业预计缺口达 1500 万吨。豆粕在 9 月迎来上涨，约 15%。 广金期货研究中心 农产品研究员 苏航 2018 年 12 月初，中美领导人团队在阿根廷 G20 峰会见面，中方 签署了大豆采购协议，由国务院相关单位确定规模，至少 800 万吨。 当年，豆粕 1901 在 10 月末就开始下跌了，跌回 9 月初的位置。 最近，Trump 称 10 月底将与中方在韩国见面，计划明年访华…… 【若中方 25/26 采购美 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings Overall Industry Outlook - The report does not provide a comprehensive investment rating for the entire agricultural industry. However, it offers individual outlooks for various agricultural products: - **Protein Meal (Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal)**: Oscillating weakly [2][6] - **Corn and Starch**: Oscillating [8] - **Pigs**: Oscillating weakly [9] - **Natural Rubber (RSS3 and TSR20)**: Oscillating [10][12] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Oscillating [13] - **Cotton**: Oscillating weakly in the medium - term, with short - term attention to support levels [14] - **Sugar**: Oscillating weakly in both the short and long term [15] - **Pulp**: Oscillating [16] - **Offset Printing Paper**: Consider interval operations between 4100 - 4400 [17] - **Logs**: Oscillating around 800 in the short term [19] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes multiple agricultural products. The main influencing factors include international policies (such as Argentina's cancellation of export tariffs), weather conditions, supply - demand relationships, and market sentiment. For example, Argentina's cancellation of soybean and other grain export tariffs impacts the global and domestic markets of related products, and weather conditions affect crop yields and harvest schedules [1][6][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Protein Meal - **Logic**: Argentina's cancellation of soybean export tariffs leads to a decrease in export prices and an expected increase in export volume, which is bearish for the domestic and international soybean markets. Domestically, the opening of import profit for Argentine soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil is expected to increase imports, causing short - term pressure on the domestic market. In the long run, domestic soybean meal supply may increase in Q4 2025, and the supply gap may disappear in Q1 2026. On the demand side, the consumption of soybean meal may increase steadily, while rapeseed meal follows the trend of soybean meal [1][6]. - **Outlook**: Both soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to oscillate weakly. It is recommended to take profits on previous long positions and then wait and see [2][6]. 3.2. Corn and Starch - **Logic**: The price of domestic corn shows regional differentiation. In the short term, there is pressure from the concentrated listing of new grain, and Argentina's cancellation of corn export tariffs also affects market sentiment. In the long term, the price is not pessimistic under the scenario of tightening carry - over inventory, presenting a short - term bearish and long - term bullish pattern [8]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds and reverse spread opportunities [8]. 3.3. Pigs - **Logic**: In the short term, the supply of pigs is abundant, and the cost of breeding is expected to decrease due to Argentina's policy. In the long term, if the "anti - involution" policy continues to be implemented, the supply pressure in 2026 will gradually weaken [9]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating weakly. The price is expected to face supply pressure after the National Day, and attention can be paid to reverse spread strategies [9]. 3.4. Natural Rubber - **Logic**: Rubber prices are relatively resistant to decline due to favorable fundamentals, showing a pattern of strong spot prices, inventory reduction, and narrowing basis. However, due to poor commodity sentiment, it is difficult to rise independently. In the short term, attention should be paid to the supply increase in the production area and the inventory reduction rate, as well as the downstream procurement willingness [12]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating strongly in the short term. Consider short - term long positions on pullbacks in September [12]. 3.5. Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: The BR futures contract oscillates within a range. The overall commodity trend is weak, but natural rubber is relatively strong, supporting the BR futures. The fundamentals and price operation logic have not changed significantly recently. The price is expected to continue to oscillate between 11300 - 12300 [13]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating within a range in the short term [13]. 3.6. Cotton - **Logic**: The expected increase in Xinjiang's cotton production in the new year leads to the market trading the expected supply surplus in advance, causing the cotton price to decline. The current inventory is tight, and the demand has improved seasonally, but the sustainability of the peak - season demand is questionable. The market shows a pattern of tight near - term and loose far - term supply [14]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating weakly in the medium term. In the short term, pay attention to the support at 13500 yuan/ton [14]. 3.7. Sugar - **Logic**: Zhengzhou sugar prices continue to decline, breaking through the 5500 yuan/ton level. Macroeconomically, the market has digested the Fed's interest - rate cut. Fundamentally, the international trade flow is loose, and domestic consumption and imports are not favorable. In the long term, the global sugar supply is expected to be abundant in the 25/26 crushing season [15]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating weakly in both the short and long term [15]. 3.8. Pulp - **Logic**: Pulp futures oscillate at a low level, with differences between near - term and far - term contracts. The market has both positive and negative factors, but the impact is not strong. The fundamentals are still bearish, but the futures price has already factored in the negative news, and the price of bleached northern softwood kraft pulp has stabilized [16]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating. It is recommended to wait and see [16]. 3.9. Offset Printing Paper - **Logic**: The futures price oscillates narrowly around 4200 yuan. The short - term fundamentals have limited changes, with sufficient supply and no obvious contradiction between supply and demand. Attention should be paid to new driving factors such as publishing tenders [17]. - **Outlook**: Consider interval operations between 4100 - 4400 [17]. 3.10. Logs - **Logic**: The log futures price oscillates narrowly. The fundamentals have marginally improved, but there is no strong upward driving force. From the perspective of delivery, it has a bearish impact on the futures price [19]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating around 800 in the short term [19].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold has a clear long - term driver due to the US fiscal deficit, debt expansion, and central banks' gold - buying. The expectation of the Fed's further interest rate cuts keeps the bullish sentiment alive [2][20]. - Crude oil prices are affected by EU sanctions on Russia and US drilling well numbers. Attention should be paid to OPEC's production increase [3][14]. - The Chinese capital market is in the initial stage of strategic allocation. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices are more offensive, while the SSE 50 and SSE 300 are more defensive [4][11][12]. - The "9·24" policy package has strengthened the "stability" and accelerated the "activity" of China's capital market [7]. - Manufacturing enterprises should increase investment in the whole process of data collection, storage, calculation, management, and application [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main News on the Day - **International News**: South Korea and the US have differences in the commercial feasibility guarantee of a $350 billion investment. South Korea plans to increase defense spending and hopes to resolve the tariff issue with the US [6]. - **Domestic News**: Since the implementation of the "9·24" policy package, the "stability" of China's capital market has been consolidated, and the "activity" has been accelerated. As of September 18, the margin trading balance was 24,024.65 billion yuan. The A - share market's daily trading volume has exceeded 3 trillion yuan several times this year, and the total market value has reached over 100 trillion yuan. In August, the number of new A - share accounts increased significantly [7]. - **Industry News**: The director of the National Data Bureau emphasized that manufacturing enterprises should increase investment in data - related processes to promote the implementation of "AI +" in the industry [8]. 3.2 Daily Returns of External Markets - The FTSE China A50 futures decreased by 0.17%, ICE Brent crude oil decreased by 1.27%, London gold spot increased by 1.22%, London silver increased by 3.24%, ICE No. 11 sugar increased by 0.31%, ICE No. 2 cotton decreased by 0.93%, CBOT soybeans decreased by 1.23%, CBOT soybean meal decreased by 0.32%, CBOT soybean oil decreased by 1.26%, CBOT wheat decreased by 0.52%, and CBOT corn decreased by 0.06% [9]. 3.3 Morning Comments on Major Varieties - **Financial Products** - **Stock Index**: The US stock market rose, while the previous trading day's stock index mainly corrected. The coal and non - ferrous sectors led the rise, and the automobile and pharmaceutical sectors led the decline. The market trading volume was 3.17 trillion yuan. The financing balance decreased on September 18. The market is in a high - level consolidation stage, but the long - term strategic allocation of the Chinese capital market has just begun [4][11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds continued to fall, and the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond rose to 1.80%. The central bank increased open - market operations, but the money market tightened. The Fed's interest rate cut increased the policy space for the domestic central bank, but the short - term money market and the high - level shock of the equity market led to the repeated low - level performance of bond futures [13]. - **Energy and Chemical Products** - **Crude Oil**: Crude oil prices dropped 1.55% at night. The EU proposed the 19th round of sanctions against Russia, including energy and finance. The US drilling well number increased. Attention should be paid to OPEC's production increase [3][14]. - **Methanol**: Methanol prices fluctuated at night. The average operating load of coal - to - olefin plants increased, while the overall methanol plant operating load decreased slightly. The coastal methanol inventory increased, and the short - term trend is bearish [15]. - **Rubber**: The natural rubber futures declined last week. The supply may increase, the bonded - area inventory decreased, and the tire production increased. The price may be supported by inventory reduction and rainfall, and the short - term decline is expected to be limited, with a possible oscillatory trend [16]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefins closed down. The spot market is mainly affected by supply and demand. The inventory is improving, and the decline in crude oil prices has stopped, which supports the chemical products. However, the market is worried about future demand, and polyolefins may continue to oscillate in the low - level range [17][18]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures rebounded slightly. The market supply - demand relationship is slowly recovering, and attention is focused on the supply - side reduction. The inventory of glass production enterprises decreased this week. Soda ash futures also rebounded slightly, and its production enterprise inventory decreased [19]. - **Metals** - **Precious Metals**: After the Fed's interest rate decision, gold and silver prices first declined and then strengthened on Friday night. The US initial jobless claims decreased, and the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points. The long - term driver of gold is clear, and the expectation of further rate cuts maintains the bullish sentiment [2][20]. - **Copper**: Copper prices rose 0.29% at night. The concentrate supply is tight, but the smelting output is growing. The power industry is growing, while the real estate is weak. Copper prices may fluctuate within a range [21]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices dropped 0.61% at night. The processing fee of zinc concentrate has increased, and the smelting output is expected to rise. The inventory of galvanized sheets increased. The short - term supply - demand may turn to surplus, and zinc prices may fluctuate weakly within a range [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The weekly production increased, and the inventory decreased. The demand for related materials also changed. Due to the expected mining - right change, the bullish logic is weakened, but the inventory reduction and pre - holiday procurement may support the price, and it may oscillate in the short term [23][24]. - **Black Metals** - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal and coke futures oscillated at a high level on Friday night. The steel output was basically flat, and the inventory increased. The short - term inventory pressure and profit reduction restrict the price, while policy expectations and demand support the price [25]. - **Iron Ore**: Steel mills have resumed production, and the demand for iron ore is supported. The global iron ore shipment has decreased, and the port inventory is decreasing rapidly. The market is optimistic about the future trend, considering the Fed's interest rate cut and pre - holiday replenishment [26]. - **Steel**: The profitability of steel mills remains stable, and the steel supply pressure is increasing. The steel inventory is accumulating, and the steel export situation is mixed. The market supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and the hot - rolled coil performs better than the rebar [27]. - **Agricultural Products** - **Protein Meal**: The soybean and rapeseed meal futures were strong at night. The USDA report had a neutral - to - bearish impact on the market. The positive signal of Sino - US trade relations may put pressure on the domestic market [28]. - **Edible Oils**: The soybean and palm oil futures were weak at night, while the rapeseed oil futures rose slightly. The production and export of Malaysian palm oil decreased, and the market is affected by the US biodiesel policy and the Fed's interest rate cut, with an expected oscillatory trend [29][30]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar market is in the inventory - accumulation stage, and the Brazilian sugar production and export situation is changing. The domestic sugar market is supported by high sales - to - production ratio and low inventory but is dragged down by import pressure. The short - term trend is weak, with a possible rebound [31]. - **Cotton**: The ICE US cotton futures declined. The international cotton supply pressure remains, and the domestic market is in the new - cotton acquisition stage. The new - cotton pre - sale and acquisition expectations support the price, but the high - yield expectation and weak downstream demand limit the upward momentum. The short - term trend is oscillatory [32]. - **Shipping Index** - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index of container shipping to Europe weakened rapidly on Friday, with the October contract falling below 1100 points. The SCFI European line price decreased, and the freight rate continued to decline in September. The shipping capacity will decrease in October, and the decline rate of freight rates may slow down after the National Day holiday [33].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oils and Fats**: Volatile. The market sentiment has weakened again, and oils and fats may continue to adjust in the near term. However, due to factors such as the expected increase in overseas production demand, the possibility of a further downward adjustment of US soybean yield, and the strong expectation of a Fed rate cut, there is a high probability that the price of oils and fats will rise again in the medium term [5]. - **Protein Meals**: Volatile. The Fed is about to cut interest rates, and attention should be paid to whether it exceeds expectations. The US soybean yield still has room for downward adjustment, and the progress of sowing in South America is uncertain. With both long and short positions coexisting, US soybeans will move in a volatile manner. Affected by spot inventory accumulation and weak sentiment, the protein meal futures price is testing the support at the lower edge of the range, and the basis fluctuates with the spot. It is recommended to hold long positions at 2900 - 2910 and add positions on dips. Oil mills are advised to sell hedges on rallies, and downstream enterprises are advised to buy basis contracts or fix prices on dips [5]. - **Corn/Starch**: Volatile and weak in the short term, with a long - term outlook of short - term bearish and long - term bullish. In the short term, pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds. For arbitrage, consider reverse arbitrage opportunities, with the core logic being to trade the pressure of new grain listing and the valuation correction after the selling pressure is largely released [7]. - **Hogs**: Volatile. As the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day holidays approach, festival demand may gradually start, but the hog supply in September is abundant, and the weight inventory is higher than the same period last year. Both supply and demand of hogs are increasing, and the spot price is expected to move in a volatile manner. From a futures perspective, hogs are still in the period of high - capacity realization in the fourth quarter. After the National Day, hog prices are expected to continue to face supply pressure, while the prices of far - month contracts are supported by the expectation of capacity reduction. There is a pattern of "weak reality + strong expectation", and attention should be paid to reverse arbitrage opportunities [8]. - **Natural Rubber**: Volatile and bullish in the short term. The macro sentiment is acceptable, and the fundamentals also have short - term support. The short - term trend of rubber prices is expected to be volatile and bullish [11]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Volatile. In the short term, there will be no major changes in the fundamentals and raw materials, and the futures price will move in a range - bound manner [13]. - **Cotton**: Volatile in the short term, with a reference range of 13800 - 14300 yuan/ton. In the short term, it will continue to fluctuate. Low inventory provides strong support for cotton prices at the bottom, but there is a lack of momentum for a rebound. Pay attention to the actual purchase price dynamics. When a large amount of new cotton is listed, the reality of increased production in the new year will gradually put downward pressure on cotton prices [13]. - **Sugar**: Volatile and weak in the long term, with a short - term reference range of 5500 - 5750 yuan/ton for single - side trading. In the long term, due to the expected supply surplus in the new crushing season, sugar prices have a downward driving force and are expected to be volatile and weak. In the short term, sugar prices stop falling and rebound [14]. - **Pulp**: Volatile. The internal contradictions of pulp are divided, with important long and short factors coexisting. The futures price of pulp is expected to move in a volatile manner, with an expected fluctuation range of 4950 - 5300 [15]. - **Offset Paper**: Volatile. It is difficult for the upward driving force to emerge, and offset paper moves in a narrow - range volatile manner. It is recommended to consider trading in the range of 4000 - 4500 [16]. - **Logs**: Volatile and bullish in the short term. It is expected that the market will continue to destock in September, and with the expectation of improved terminal demand on a month - on - month basis, log prices may stop falling and stabilize [18]. 2. Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products, including supply, demand, inventory, and price trends. For most products, there are short - term and long - term differences in market trends. For example, in the hog market, there is a pattern of "weak reality + strong expectation", with short - term supply pressure and long - term hope for price improvement due to capacity reduction. In the corn market, there is a short - term bearish and long - term bullish situation [8][7]. - The market sentiment and macro - economic factors, such as the Fed's interest - rate decision, the US soybean production situation, and the international trade environment, have a significant impact on the prices of agricultural products. For instance, the expected Fed rate cut affects the prices of oils and fats, protein meals, etc. The change in US soybean production and export also affects the relevant product markets [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Views - **Oils and Fats**: Market sentiment has weakened, and oils and fats may continue to adjust. From a macro perspective, the market has a strong expectation of a Fed rate cut in September, and the US dollar has weakened. Crude oil prices have risen due to concerns about Russian oil supply disruptions. From an industrial perspective, the drought - affected area of US soybeans has continued to expand, and the soybean yield may be further adjusted downward. The import volume of domestic soybeans is expected to decline seasonally, and the domestic soybean oil inventory may gradually peak. The flood in the Sabah region of Malaysia may affect palm oil production, and the palm oil inventory in September is likely to continue to increase. The domestic rapeseed oil inventory is slowly declining, but it is still higher than the same period last year. The relationship between China and Canada remains uncertain [5]. - **Protein Meals**: The cost support has shifted downward, and the prices of double - meal futures continue to decline. Internationally, the Fed is likely to cut interest rates this week. The US soybean area has been increased, and the yield has been slightly adjusted downward. The soybean sowing progress in Brazil is slow, and the South American premium has weakened. Domestically, in the short term, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills continues to accumulate, and the physical inventory of feed enterprises' soybean meal has increased slightly. The spot and basis are running at a low level. In the long term, there is no supply gap before December. The demand for soybean meal is expected to be stable or increase slightly, and rapeseed meal is expected to follow soybean meal and move in a volatile manner [5]. - **Corn/Starch**: Recent continuous rainfall has occurred, and attention should be paid to the grain quality. The domestic corn price is generally weak. The supply of old - crop corn is decreasing, and the inventory in each link is declining. In the Northeast, the supply of old - crop corn is tight, and new - crop corn has not been listed in large quantities. In North China, continuous rainfall has led to problems such as moldy and bald ears in some areas, and the price has continued to decline. In the short term, the market will face the pressure of new - crop corn listing. In the long term, the price is not pessimistic in the context of a tighter carry - over inventory [7]. - **Hogs**: The policy of weight reduction and production limitation continues, and the near - month contracts are under pressure. On September 16, the Ministry of Agriculture continued to guide breeding enterprises to reduce production capacity. From September 18 - 19, 15,000 tons of hog reserves will be rotated. In the short term, the planned hog slaughter volume in September has increased by 4% compared with that in August. In the medium term, the number of newborn piglets has been increasing, and the hog slaughter volume is expected to increase in the second half of the year. In the long term, if the policy of capacity reduction is effectively implemented in the fourth quarter, the supply pressure in 2026 will be gradually reduced. The ratio of meat to hog price has slightly increased, and the price difference between fat and lean pigs is stable. The utilization rate of secondary - fattening pens has continued to decline. In the short term, the hog price is under pressure, and in the long term, the hog price may gradually strengthen [8]. - **Natural Rubber**: It has adjusted downward following the overall commodity market. The short - term reality shows strong spot, inventory reduction, and a continuously narrowing basis. However, it is difficult to break through the previous high without further positive driving factors. The supply situation in the producing areas is improving, and attention should be paid to the supply volume and inventory reduction rate. The downstream procurement intention needs to be observed [11]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It has returned to a weak trend, mainly dragged down by the overall commodity market. The absolute price and operating logic of the futures have changed little recently, and it mainly follows the movement of natural rubber. In the medium - term, due to the expected high - frequency equipment maintenance from September to November and the low price, the bearish sentiment has cooled down, and the bottom support is strong, but there is no continuous upward driving force [13]. - **Cotton**: The cotton price continues to fluctuate slightly. New cotton in Xinjiang has begun to be purchased in small quantities, and the market is waiting for the purchase price to provide guidance. The cotton inventory is low, and the downstream demand has improved marginally, but the demand - side positive factors are not strong. The USDA September report has not adjusted the US cotton production and has raised the Chinese cotton production, but it is still underestimated [13]. - **Sugar**: The sugar price continues to fluctuate. In the long term, the global sugar market is expected to have a supply surplus in the 25/26 crushing season, and the sugar price has a downward driving force. In the short term, the production and export of Brazilian sugar are in the peak season, and the domestic import volume has increased. The fundamentals are relatively loose, but the short - term downward space is limited, and there is a certain support for a rebound [14]. - **Pulp**: There is no obvious breakthrough - type driving force, and the pulp maintains a volatile trend. The futures price of pulp has been moving horizontally, and the spot trading of softwood pulp is weak, while that of hardwood pulp is slightly better. The price increase of the US dollar - denominated pulp has weakened, and the new supply from Chenming's resumption of production has increased. The demand has entered the seasonal peak season, but the upward transmission of terminal demand is weak. The pulp futures valuation is at a low level, but the problem of needle - pulp warehouse receipts suppresses the futures price [15]. - **Offset Paper**: It is difficult for the upward driving force to emerge, and offset paper moves in a narrow - range volatile manner. The trading volume of offset paper at the initial stage of listing is limited, and there is no substantial driving force. In the short term, the fundamentals have not changed significantly, and the tendering of publishers has not started. The market lacks a clear upward or downward driving force. In the long - term, the fundamentals of offset paper are weak, and the market has a strong bearish expectation. It is recommended to consider trading in the range of 4000 - 4500 [16]. - **Logs**: The processing demand has warmed up, and the spot price has boosted the futures price to move in a volatile and bullish manner. The downstream sales of logs have improved, and the inventory has decreased slightly. The market is in a stage of game between weak reality and peak - season expectation. The arrival pressure in September has improved, but the import volume is expected to increase seasonally in October. The demand for logs in China is expected to increase from September to October, and the spot price is in a bottom - building trend [18]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring The report lists the data monitoring of various varieties, including prices, price changes, and inventory information of oils and fats, protein meals, corn, starch, hogs, cotton, sugar, pulp, offset paper, and logs, but no specific data analysis is provided in the given text. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index of commodities on September 17, 2025, shows that the commodity 20 index is 2515.59, down 0.45%; the industrial product index is 2270.66, up 0.04% [178]. - **Agricultural Product Index**: On September 17, 2025, the agricultural product index is 961.10, with a daily decline of 0.69%, a decline of 0.99% in the past 5 days, a decline of 2.21% in the past month, and an increase of 0.67% since the beginning of the year [180].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The corn market is expected to have a short - term bearish and long - term bullish pattern, with short - term attention on selling opportunities on rallies and potential reverse arbitrage opportunities [1][9]. - The protein meal market is expected to continue range - bound trading, with long positions held at 2900 - 2910 and opportunities to add positions on dips. Oil mills are advised to sell on rallies, and downstream enterprises are suggested to buy basis contracts or price at low levels [7]. - The hog market is expected to have low - level oscillations in the short term, and the supply pressure may gradually weaken in 2026 if the de - capacity policy is effectively implemented [9]. - The natural rubber market is expected to be oscillating and bullish in the short term, while the synthetic rubber market is expected to continue its oscillating trend [11][13]. - The cotton market is expected to have short - term range - bound trading, with support at 13800 yuan/ton and resistance at 14300 yuan/ton [14]. - The sugar market is expected to be bearish in the long term and may stop falling and rebound in the short term, with a trading range of 5500 - 5750 [16]. - The pulp market is expected to have an oscillating trend, with an expected trading range of 4950 - 5300 [17]. - The offset paper market is recommended for range - bound operations between 4000 - 4500 [18]. - The log market is expected to stop falling and stabilize in September, with a possible range of 780 - 840 [20]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1行情观点 3.1.1油脂 - Despite the bearish USDA September supply - demand report, the domestic oils and fats oscillated strongly on the previous day. The market is focused on the Fed's September interest - rate meeting, and the crude oil price was strong due to regional tensions. - The US soybean yield may be further revised down, and the domestic soybean oil inventory may peak. The Malaysian palm oil may continue to accumulate inventory in September, and the demand for palm oil in Indonesian biodiesel may be better than expected. The domestic rapeseed oil inventory is slowly declining but still high year - on - year. - In the short term, pay attention to the sustainability of the upward trend, and in the medium term, the probability of price increases is high [5]. 3.1.2蛋白粕 - Internationally, the Fed is likely to cut interest rates, and the US - China talks were held in Spain. The US soybean yield was slightly revised down, and the end - inventory consumption ratio increased slightly. The probability of La Nina from September to November is 55%. The Brazilian soybean planting progress should be monitored. - Domestically, the double - meal prices fell due to the neutral - bearish supply - demand report and the US - China talks. In the short term, the oil mills' soybean meal inventory continues to accumulate, and the feed enterprises' physical inventory is slightly increasing. In the long term, there is no supply gap before December, and the demand for soybean meal may increase steadily [7]. 3.1.3玉米及淀粉 - The domestic corn prices showed mixed trends. The supply side is affected by the active selling of old - crop grains and the expected new - crop harvest pressure. The demand side sees some support from the replenishment of small - scale feed enterprises in the south. - In the short term, there are opportunities to sell on rallies and potential reverse arbitrage opportunities. In the long term, the market is not pessimistic [1][9]. 3.1.4生猪 - In the short term, the supply of hogs is abundant, and the price is under pressure. In the medium term, the pig supply is expected to increase. In the long term, if the de - capacity policy is effective, the supply pressure will gradually weaken in 2026 [9]. 3.1.5天然橡胶 - After a sharp decline last week, the rubber price rebounded. The supply side needs to monitor the production increase and inventory reduction. The demand side needs to observe the downstream procurement intention. - In the short term, the price is expected to be oscillating and bullish [11]. 3.1.6合成橡胶 - The BR futures rebounded slightly after stabilizing. It mainly follows the trend of natural rubber and is supported by the short - term tight supply of butadiene. - In the short term, the price may be oscillating and bullish [13]. 3.1.7棉花 - Internationally, the global cotton production may not decline significantly. Domestically, the commercial inventory is low, the demand is improving, and the new - cotton opening price is expected to be higher than last year. - In the short term, the price is expected to be range - bound [14]. 3.1.8白糖 - In the long term, the global sugar market supply is expected to be loose, and the price is under downward pressure. In the short term, the fundamental supply is also relatively loose, but the price may stop falling and rebound [16]. 3.1.9纸浆 - After reaching a new low, the pulp futures rebounded. The market sentiment is stable, and the demand is average. The supply side has some new increments, and the demand side is in the seasonal peak season but with a weak upward - transmission effect. - The price is expected to oscillate in the low - level range [17]. 3.1.10双胶纸 - The double - offset paper futures have been oscillating around the listing price of 4200 yuan/ton. The price is at a neutral level, and there is a lack of clear upward or downward drivers. - It is recommended for range - bound operations between 4000 - 4500 [18]. 3.1.11原木 - The log market has been affected by the weak reality and the expectation of the peak season. The inventory is decreasing, and the demand is expected to increase in September. - The price is expected to stop falling and stabilize [20]. 3.2品种数据监测 The report only lists various agricultural product categories such as "油脂油料", "蛋白粕", "玉米、淀粉", etc., but no specific data monitoring content is provided. 3.3评级标准 - The rating standards include "偏强" (expected increase > 2 standard deviations), "震荡偏强" (expected increase of 1 - 2 standard deviations), "震荡" (expected increase/decrease within ±1 standard deviation), "震荡偏弱" (expected decrease of 1 - 2 standard deviations), and "偏弱" (expected decrease > 2 standard deviations). - The time period is the next 2 - 12 weeks, and the standard deviation is calculated as 1 - time standard deviation = 500 - trading - day rolling standard deviation/current price [177].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Oils and Fats: Oscillating with a bullish bias [4] - Protein Meal: Oscillating [4] - Corn and Starch: Oscillating [4] - Live Pigs: Oscillating with a bullish bias [5] - Natural Rubber: Oscillating [6] - Synthetic Rubber: Oscillating [9] - Cotton: Oscillating [10] - Sugar: Oscillating [11] - Pulp: Oscillating with a bearish bias [12] - Logs: Oscillating with a bearish bias [13] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of multiple agricultural products. In the short - term, the prices of live pigs and oils and fats may show a bullish trend, while protein meal, corn, and other products will oscillate. In the long - term, the supply of live pigs may face pressure, and the sugar market may decline due to expected supply increases [2][4][5]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Oils and Fats - Yesterday, the market oscillated and showed differentiation. The market should continue to monitor changes in the US biodiesel policy. Due to technical buying and optimistic demand expectations for soybean oil in the US biofuel industry, US soybeans rose on Wednesday, and domestic oils oscillated and showed differentiation yesterday, with palm oil being relatively strong. In the future, oils may continue to oscillate with a bullish bias, but the sustainability of the upward trend should be noted [4]. 3.1.2 Protein Meal - The price rose first and then fell, continuing to oscillate. Internationally, the US "Big and Beautiful" Act was passed, and US soybeans rebounded from the lower limit of the range. Domestically, soybean meal inventories continued to accumulate, and supply pressure may lead to a weakening of spot prices. In the long - term, protein meal may be supported by cost and oscillate in the short - term [4]. 3.1.3 Corn and Starch - The futures market remained weak, and the spot market stabilized. The current fundamentals of the corn market are affected by factors such as rainfall, changes in supply rhythm, and wheat substitution. The short - term trend is oscillating [4][5]. 3.1.4 Live Pigs - Affected by the expected supply - side reform in the industry, the live pig futures market rebounded. In the short - term, pig prices have temporarily changed from weak to strong, but in the long - term, there is still supply pressure [2][5]. 3.1.5 Natural Rubber - Rubber prices continued to fluctuate with commodities. The current fundamentals of natural rubber are relatively stable, with limited price changes, and the market is waiting for new variables [6][8]. 3.1.6 Synthetic Rubber - The weak raw materials dragged the market down. The current fundamentals of synthetic rubber are not significant, and the market mainly follows the fluctuations of natural rubber and overall commodities. The market may continue to decline, and attention should be paid to the previous low support [9]. 3.1.7 Cotton - Low inventory supports cotton prices. Although there are expectations of increased production in the new season, the current low inventory structure is expected to be beneficial to cotton prices, and the short - term price may be relatively resistant to decline [10]. 3.1.8 Sugar - The external market continued to weaken, and the domestic - foreign price difference widened. Domestically, there is an expectation of concentrated arrivals of imported sugar, and the sugar price is expected to be under pressure [11]. 3.1.9 Pulp - The futures market continued to rebound, but the spot market did not follow. The supply - demand situation of pulp is weak, and the futures market is expected to oscillate with a bearish bias [12]. 3.1.10 Logs - The fundamentals changed little, and the market oscillated. The log market is in a traditional off - season, and the medium - term supply - demand pattern is expected to be weak on both sides [13]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - The report lists the data monitoring of multiple varieties, including the prices of live pigs, oils and fats, cotton, etc., but does not provide detailed analysis in this part [16][47][66][105][118][133][152]. 3.3 Rating Standards - The report provides rating standards such as "bullish", "oscillating with a bullish bias", "oscillating", "oscillating with a bearish bias", and "bearish", and the time period is the next 2 - 12 weeks [165].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows a complex situation with different trends in various sectors. In the financial futures and options market, both stock index futures and treasury bond futures are expected to be strong in the short and medium - term. In the commodity futures and options market, different metals and energy materials, as well as agricultural products, have their own unique supply - demand and price trends [1][2][4]. Summary by Category Financial Futures and Options Stock Index Futures (IF, IH, IC, IM) - **Day - to - day view**: Oscillate with a slight upward bias [1] - **Medium - term view**: Bullish [1] - **Reference strategy**: Hold short MO2507 - P - 5800 out - of - the - money put options and IM2507 long positions [1] - **Core logic**: Positive sentiment in the equity market due to Sino - US communication and policy support, and the potential rise of the science and technology sector [1] Treasury Bond Futures (TS, TF, T, TL) - **Day - to - day view**: Oscillate with a slight upward bias [2] - **Medium - term view**: Bullish [2] - **Reference strategy**: Hold T2509 or TL2509 long positions [3] - **Core logic**: Weak domestic fundamentals strengthen policy expectations, and the central bank's continued net investment affects the capital market [3] Commodity Futures and Options Metal and New Energy Materials - **Copper** - **Day - to - day view**: Price range from 79,200 to 81,000 [4] - **Medium - term view**: Price range from 60,000 to 90,000 [4] - **Reference strategy**: Adopt an oscillating and slightly upward trading idea, buy call options [4] - **Core logic**: The "Big and Beautiful" bill in the US, supply shortages, and changes in international demand and inventory levels affect copper prices [4] - **Industrial Silicon** - **Day - to - day view**: Run with a slight upward bias, price range from 8,000 to 8,100 [5] - **Medium - term view**: Face downward pressure, price range from 7,000 to 9,000 [5] - **Reference strategy**: Hold short SI2508 - C - 9000 until expiration, short futures on rallies [5] - **Core logic**: Decreased supply and demand, and high inventory levels [5] - **Polysilicon** - **Day - to - day view**: Run with a slight upward bias, price range from 33,000 to 35,000 [7] - **Medium - term view**: Trade at a low level, price range from 28,000 to 38,000 [7] - **Reference strategy**: Hold short PS2508 - C - 45000 until expiration [7] - **Core logic**: Decreased supply and demand, and high inventory levels [7] - **Aluminum** - **Day - to - day view**: Run with a slight upward bias, price range from 20,400 to 20,700 [9] - **Medium - term view**: Trade at a high level, price range from 19,200 to 21,000 [9] - **Reference strategy**: Sell AL2508 - P - 19300 [9] - **Core logic**: Limited supply increase, low inventory, good performance in the automotive market, and the overall rise of non - ferrous metals [9] - **Lithium Carbonate** - **Day - to - day view**: Run with a slight upward bias, price range from 63,000 to 65,000 [11] - **Medium - term view**: Cost support weakens, prices decline steadily, price range from 56,000 to 68,000 [11] - **Reference strategy**: Short futures on rallies, sell LC2508 - C - 83000 [11] - **Core logic**: Low spot prices, large supply, and high inventory levels [11] Black and Building Materials - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil** - **Day - to - day view**: Downward pressure weakens [14] - **Medium - term view**: Stop falling and stabilize [14] - **Reference strategy**: Exit the strategy of selling call options and buying put options on RB2510, sell out - of - the - money put options on rebar RB2510 [14] - **Core logic**: Potential relief of raw material inventory pressure and changes in supply and demand [14] Livestock, Poultry, and Soft Commodities - **Hogs** - **Day - to - day view**: Run with a slight upward bias [17] - **Medium - term view**: Rebound temporarily and then maintain a weak trend [17] - **Reference strategy**: Short on rallies [17] - **Core logic**: Changes in supply and demand, with supply remaining abundant and demand weak [17] - **Sugar** - **Day - to - day view**: Oscillate weakly [19] - **Medium - term view**: Rise first and then fall [19] - **Reference strategy**: Short on rallies [19] - **Core logic**: Global supply surplus expectations and domestic supply - demand and import situations [19] - **Protein Meal** - **Day - to - day view**: Soybean meal 2509 oscillates in the range of [2,900, 3,000] [22] - **Medium - term view**: Soybean meal 2509 builds a bottom in the range of [2,900, 3,100] [22] - **Reference strategy**: Sell out - of - the - money put options on soybean meal 2508 - P - 2850 [22] - **Core logic**: Uncertainty in the weather of US soybean and Canadian rapeseed growing areas, and changes in international and domestic soybean and rapeseed markets [22] Energy and Chemicals - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)** - **Day - to - day view**: Oscillate within a range [25] - **Medium - term view**: Face downward pressure [25] - **Reference strategy**: Hold short out - of - the - money call options on PG2508 [25] - **Core logic**: Changes in supply, demand, and cost factors [25] - **PVC** - **Day - to - day view**: Oscillate with a slight upward bias [28] - **Medium - term view**: Limited upside potential [28] - **Reference strategy**: Continue to hold the strategy of selling out - of - the - money call options on PVC [28] - **Core logic**: Changes in cost, supply, demand, and inventory levels [28]

Report Overview - **Date**: June 26, 2025 - **Report Type**: Main Variety Strategy Breakfast - **Covered Industries**: Commodity Futures and Options (including Metal and New Energy Materials, Livestock and Soft Commodities, Energy and Chemicals) Metal and New Energy Materials - Copper Investment Ratings - **Intraday View**: 78300 - 79300 [1] - **Medium - term View**: 60000 - 90000 [1] Core View - The Fed's expected rate cut, declining scrap copper supply, tight supply - demand of copper concentrates, increased US trade demand, and continuous destocking of domestic inventories will boost copper prices [4] Summary by Section - **Macro**: Most Fed officials believe it is appropriate to cut interest rates later this year [1] - **Supply**: In May, total scrap copper imports decreased by 9.55% month - on - month and 6.63% year - on - year. The proportion of scrap copper imports from the US will fall below 5% in June. Spot supply in the Guangdong market increased, while that in the North China market was normal [1] - **Demand**: In May, the total export volume of refined copper rods increased by 17.57% month - on - month and 34% year - on - year. However, terminal demand weakened in June. Many recycled copper rod enterprises had insufficient orders, and downstream copper factories in Chongqing almost stopped purchasing [2] - **Inventory**: On June 25, LME copper inventory decreased by 1200 tons to 93475 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 955 tons to 21470 tons [2] - **Strategy**: Adopt an operation idea of sideways with a bullish bias and sell deep out - of - the - money put options [1] Livestock and Soft Commodities - Protein Meal Investment Ratings - **Intraday View**: Soybean meal 2509 will oscillate weakly [5] - **Medium - term View**: Soybean meal 2509 will build a bottom in the range of [2900, 3100] [5] Core View - Domestic soybean meal is influenced by multiple factors. After recent declines fully digesting negative factors, it may build a phased bottom around 3000 points. The "sell out - of - the - money call options on soybean oil 2509 - C - 8400" strategy can be continued [5][7] Summary by Section - **Weather and Geopolitics**: In late June, soybean meal 2509 entered a volatile market due to uncertain weather in US and Canadian rapeseed producing areas. The easing of the Middle - East geopolitical conflict has affected the price of soybean meal [5] - **International Soybeans**: As of the week ending June 22, the good - excellent rate of US soybeans was 66%. Forecasts show sufficient import volumes of soybeans from June to August. Anec raised Brazil's soybean export forecast for June to 14.99 million tons [6] - **Rapeseed**: Canadian new - crop rapeseed is planted relatively fast but is experiencing mild drought. The Canadian Ministry of Agriculture raised the export volume of old - crop rapeseed by 500,000 tons to 9 million tons [6] - **Strategy**: Continue to hold the position of selling out - of - the - money call options on soybean oil 2509 - C - 8400 [5] Energy and Chemicals - Petroleum Asphalt Investment Ratings - **Intraday View**: Weak sideways movement [8] - **Medium - term View**: Under pressure [9] Core View - The cease - fire between Israel and Iran has led to a sharp decline in oil prices, and asphalt futures prices have also followed. In the long term, the asphalt fundamentals are relatively weak in summer, and the asphalt crack spread will continue to weaken [11] Summary by Section - **Supply**: Local refineries' losses in asphalt production have decreased, and the domestic asphalt plant operating rate and production have increased. It is expected that they will continue to rise before the peak season [9] - **Demand**: High prices in the north and rainfall in the south have restricted demand. Some downstream enterprises have pre - stocking demand. The operating rate of waterproofing membrane enterprises has increased significantly. Asphalt plant inventories have continued to decline, and the decline in social inventories has slowed down [10] - **Cost**: In the short term, oil prices have fallen due to the extrusion of geopolitical premiums. In the long term, oil prices are still under pressure [10] - **Strategy**: Short fuel oil and long asphalt spread [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the impact of Trump's tariff suspension announcement on various sectors including energy, precious metals, and stock indices. It suggests short - term trends and future concerns for each sector, with a focus on how the tariff policy, market sentiment, and economic fundamentals interact to influence prices and investment opportunities [2][3][4]. Summary by Directory I.当日主要新闻关注 - **International News**: The US government will suspend the collection of reciprocal tariffs on dozens of countries for 90 days, with a minimum tariff rate of 10% [6]. - **Domestic News**: The Central Peripheral Work Conference emphasized building a community with a shared future with neighboring countries through strategic trust, development integration, stability maintenance, and increased exchanges [7]. - **Industry News**: In March, the retail sales of passenger cars reached 1.94 million, a year - on - year increase of 14.4% and a month - on - month increase of 40.2%. New energy passenger vehicle retail sales were 991,000, a year - on - year increase of 38% and a month - on - month increase of 45% [8]. II.外盘每日收益情况 - Various international market indices and commodities showed different trends. For example, the S&P 500 rose 9.52%, the European STOXX 50 fell 3.80%, and ICE Brent crude oil rose 6.65% [8]. III.主要品种早盘评论 1) Financial - **Stock Indices**: Trump's 90 - day tariff suspension on non - retaliatory countries led to a surge in US stocks and A50 futures. Chinese stock indices rebounded strongly, with policies from multiple departments boosting market confidence. It is recommended to be cautiously bullish [4][11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds generally rose, with the yield of the 10 - year active bond falling to 1.65%. It is recommended to go long while controlling risks, considering factors like the US tariff suspension and China's economic policies [12]. 2) Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Trump's tariff suspension led to a late - session rebound in international oil prices. Short - term oil prices are expected to decline, but attention should be paid to the impact on US sanctions [2][13]. - **Methanol**: Methanol prices rose at night. The short - term trend is bullish, considering factors such as production load and inventory [14]. - **Rubber**: The price of rubber continued to decline. The long - term trend is expected to be weak, affected by factors like tariffs and supply - demand [15]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefins showed a weak and volatile trend. The short - term market will be affected by shocks, and attention should be paid to cost and demand [16]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass and soda ash futures showed a bottom - hitting and rebounding trend. The future trend depends on domestic demand [17]. - **PTA**: PTA prices are expected to remain weak due to insufficient cost support and demand [18]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Ethylene glycol is under pressure due to factors like inventory and demand [19]. 3) Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver rebounded. Gold is expected to remain strong, with future trends depending on multiple factors [3][20]. - **Copper**: The price of copper may fluctuate widely in the short term, affected by factors such as tariffs and demand [21]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices may also have wide - range short - term fluctuations, with attention on tariffs and other factors [22]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices may be weak and volatile in the short term, considering supply and demand [23]. - **Nickel**: Nickel prices may fluctuate in the short term, affected by multiple factors [24]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In March, there was an oversupply of lithium carbonate. The price may decline further if production expectations are not revised [25][26]. 4) Black Metals - **Iron Ore**: The impact of tariffs on iron ore is limited. The short - term trend is expected to be weak and volatile, with attention on steel mill复产 progress [27]. - **Steel**: The impact of tariffs on steel is not direct. The short - term trend is expected to be weak and volatile, with attention on steel mill复产 and demand [28]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The valuation of coking coal and coke may be repaired upwards, with attention on upstream inventory digestion [29]. - **Ferroalloys**: The support for ferroalloys may strengthen, with attention on steel procurement and inventory [30]. 5) Agricultural Products - **Oils and Fats**: Oils and fats were weak at night. The short - term trend is affected by factors such as inventory and oil prices [32]. - **Protein Meals**: The price of far - month soybean meal has support, considering factors such as trade disputes and planting area [33]. 6) Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The short - term trend of the container shipping index to Europe is expected to be weak, with attention on shipping company capacity control and price increases [34].