1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report offers a comprehensive analysis of various agricultural products, including their current situation, influencing factors, and future outlooks. It indicates that most products are expected to show a trend of oscillation, with some products having specific tendencies such as corn being expected to oscillate strongly, and pigs expected to oscillate weakly [1][8]. 3. Summary by Variety 3.1 Oils - **Viewpoint**: Malaysian palm oil inventory in October was slightly higher than expected, while market sentiment improved. The market is expected to oscillate, with macro and industrial factors influencing the trend [5]. - **Logic**: Last Friday, US soybeans oscillated upwards. Recently, the expected domestic imported soybean arrivals are at a relatively high level in the same period, and the speed of domestic soybean oil inventory reduction is expected to be slow. In terms of palm oil, the production and export volume of Malaysian palm oil in October increased significantly month - on - month, and the inventory was slightly higher than expected. In terms of rapeseed oil, as a large amount of Russian rapeseed comes on the market, the domestic rapeseed oil supply is expected to increase in the future [5]. 3.2 Protein Meals - **Viewpoint**: The double meal market oscillated, waiting for the guidance of the supply - demand report. It is expected that both US soybeans and domestic soybean meal will oscillate. One can buy on dips but not chase highs [6]. - **Logic**: Internationally, the US government shutdown ended, and the supply - demand report may be released. The market expects that the US soybean yield may be lowered. Domestically, in the short term, the reduction of soybean meal inventory in oil mills is slow, and the spot and basis are weak. In the medium term, the procurement of December shipments is progressing, but the January imports are still at a loss. In the long term, the supply in the fourth quarter of 2025 is expected to be sufficient, and there may be a soybean gap in March 2026 [6]. 3.3 Corn and Starch - **Viewpoint**: With downstream stocking and upstream reluctance to sell, the futures price broke through upwards. It is expected to oscillate strongly [7][8]. - **Logic**: Today, domestic corn prices mostly rose. On the supply side, farmers' reluctance to sell increased due to cold weather, and the selling pressure has not been realized. On the demand side, the demand for feed grains is concentrated in the Northeast, and the increase in trade costs further supports the price. In the fourth quarter, the market is still in the stage of new grain listing pressure, and the selling pressure after "freezing" needs attention [7][8]. 3.4 Pigs - **Viewpoint**: There is a game between supply and demand, and the pig price oscillates. It is expected to oscillate weakly, showing a pattern of "weak reality + strong expectation" [8]. - **Logic**: In terms of supply, in the short term, the supply of commercial pigs in November is still large. In the medium term, the number of pigs for slaughter in the fourth quarter is expected to increase. In the long term, the production capacity of sows is starting to decline, and the supply pressure may gradually ease in the second half of 2026. In terms of demand, the ratio of meat to pig price has increased. In terms of inventory, the average weight of slaughtered pigs has increased, and the utilization rate of second - fattening pens has increased [8]. 3.5 Natural Rubber - **Viewpoint**: It rebounded slightly following the macro - sentiment, and the sustainability needs attention. It is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating and highly elastic trend [9][11]. - **Logic**: The rubber market rebounded in line with the commodity rebound rhythm. The macro - sentiment was positive, and the valuation of RU was lower than NR. The supply in overseas producing areas was affected by weather, and the demand has not changed significantly recently [9][11]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Viewpoint**: It has temporarily stabilized, but the raw material pressure is still relatively large. It is recommended to short on rallies [12][13]. - **Logic**: The BR market rebounded slightly following natural rubber. The price of butadiene has fallen rapidly and temporarily stabilized. The supply of butadiene is abundant, and the downstream buying sentiment is cautious. Although there is short - term support at the bottom, the market atmosphere is still cautious [12][13]. 3.7 Cotton - **Viewpoint**: It fluctuated narrowly and oscillated. In the short term, the 01 contract is expected to oscillate within a range; in the long term, it may oscillate strongly [13]. - **Logic**: Macroscopically, the improvement of Sino - US trade relations is beneficial to cotton imports and textile exports in the long term but has limited short - term impact. In terms of supply and demand, the estimated output of Xinjiang cotton has been lowered, and the cost supports the cotton price, but there is a lack of new positive factors. The inventory is in the accumulation stage, and the 01 contract is expected to oscillate within a range [13]. 3.8 Sugar - **Viewpoint**: It rebounded slightly. In the medium - long term, it is expected to oscillate weakly, and it is recommended to short on rallies [14]. - **Logic**: Internationally, the peak season of Brazilian sugar production and export has ended, and the new sugar production in the Northern Hemisphere has started. India, Thailand, and Brazil are all expected to increase production. Domestically, the sugar production in the new season is expected to increase, and the import is expected to be tightened, but the sugar price may decline as the new sugar supply increases [14]. 3.9 Pulp - **Viewpoint**: The futures drive the spot, and the market is dominated by funds. It is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see [15]. - **Logic**: The futures market is rising strongly, but the spot market shows insufficient follow - up. There are both positive and negative factors. The positive factors include the rise of packaging paper prices, the increase in import costs, and the expected good production and sales of white cards and cultural papers. The negative factors include low demand for softwood pulp, slow procurement by downstream enterprises, and the influence of warehouse receipts on pricing [15]. 3.10 Double - Glue Paper - **Viewpoint**: Supported by tenders, the market has stabilized. The price is expected to stop falling and stabilize [16]. - **Logic**: In the short term, the new production capacity has increased the supply pressure, and the tender delay has limited support for the price. In the later stage, the concentrated start of tenders in November is expected to drive the price to stop falling and rebound, but the market may decline in December and January [16]. 3.11 Logs - **Viewpoint**: Domestic timber is being delivered successively, and the log market is operating at a low level. It is expected to oscillate at the bottom recently [19]. - **Logic**: The spot market of logs is under downward pressure due to factors such as traders' active inventory reduction and weak sales of integrated materials. The foreign quotation of New Zealand logs has been lowered, but the trading volume is still poor. After the peak season, the inventory is expected to accumulate again, but the downward space is limited [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall agricultural market shows a mixed performance, with different trends for each commodity. Some commodities are facing downward pressure, while others are in a state of shock or rebound [1][6]. - International and domestic factors, such as trade relations, supply and demand, and macro - economic conditions, have significant impacts on the prices of agricultural products [6][7]. 3. Summary by Commodity Oils and Fats - **View**: Yesterday, the market showed mixed fluctuations, and there is a high probability of inventory accumulation for Malaysian palm oil in October. - **Logic**: Due to profit - taking, US soybeans and soybean oil fell last Friday. Domestic oils and fats showed mixed fluctuations yesterday, with soybean oil being stronger and palm oil and rapeseed oil being weaker. The US government shutdown affected data updates, and the US soybean harvest is about 80% complete, with a high probability of a decrease in yield. Brazilian new - season soybeans are expected to increase by 3.6% year - on - year. Malaysian palm oil production increased by 2.78% from the 1st to the 25th of October, and exports decreased. There is a high probability of inventory accumulation in October [6]. - **Outlook**: Palm oil and rapeseed oil are expected to fluctuate weakly, while soybean oil will fluctuate. Pay attention to the effectiveness of the lower technical support [6]. Protein Meals - **View**: Positive signals from China - US relations led to a jump in US soybean prices and pressure on domestic soybean meal. - **Logic**: Internationally, China - US trade relations dominate the market. US soybean new crops are on the market, and Brazilian soybean exports have increased. Domestically, short - term profit margins for soybean crushing are gradually recovering, and the market lacks upward momentum. In the long term, domestic soybean meal supply is expected to be sufficient in the fourth quarter of 2025, with a possible small shortage in the first quarter of 2026 [7]. - **Outlook**: US soybeans are expected to fluctuate between 1060 - 1080. The price of soybean meal is under short - term pressure, and the decline depends on China's purchase volume of US soybeans. Consider soybean meal 1 - 5 reverse spreads and option double - buying strategies [7]. Corn and Starch - **View**: The increase in wet corn supply led to a decline in both futures and spot prices. - **Logic**: The current decline in corn prices is due to high arrival volumes. Although there were short - term factors supporting the price last week, such as low inventory of grain - using enterprises and slow harvesting progress, there are still downward drivers in the future, including high yields in the Northeast, low - quality grain pressure in North China, and weak demand in the sales area [9]. - **Outlook**: The market will fluctuate. Hold short positions and pay attention to the profit - taking rhythm. In the long term, consider a near - far month reverse spread strategy [9]. Pigs - **View**: The reduction in supply at the end of the month led to a rebound in pig prices. - **Logic**: In the short term, the utilization rate of second - fattening pens has increased, but the rebound in pig prices has suppressed the enthusiasm for second - fattening. In the medium term, the supply of pigs is expected to increase in the fourth quarter. In the long term, the production capacity of sows is starting to decline, and the supply pressure is expected to ease in the second half of 2026 [10]. - **Outlook**: The market will fluctuate. In the near - term, the price is still weak, while in the far - term, the price is supported by the expectation of production capacity reduction. Consider reverse spread strategies [10]. Natural Rubber - **View**: The price is consolidating at a high level, waiting for new guidance. - **Logic**: The recent rebound is due to a short - term bottom and relatively low valuation. The slow registration of warehouse receipts has become a focus for bulls. The supply pressure is not significant, and the demand is expected to be stable in the fourth quarter. However, due to the large proportion of macro factors, it is difficult to determine the price trend [12]. - **Outlook**: Due to high macro uncertainty, the price is expected to fluctuate and find a bottom [12]. Synthetic Rubber - **View**: The futures market shows signs of weakness. - **Logic**: The decline in the price of raw material butadiene and high production volumes are the main reasons for the weakness. Although downstream demand is increasing, the growth rate is lower than the production growth rate, resulting in high inventory levels [14]. - **Outlook**: The market is expected to fluctuate at the bottom, and there is a possibility of hitting a new low this year [14]. Cotton - **View**: Cost support makes the cotton price relatively strong, but pay attention to macro - level disturbances. - **Logic**: In the north of Xinjiang, the cotton purchase is almost finished, while in the south, the purchase price is rising, increasing the processing cost. The new cotton is gradually coming onto the market, and the commercial inventory is starting to accumulate. Pay attention to the progress of China - US economic and trade consultations. The price may face pressure above the range of 13600 - 13800 yuan/ton [14]. - **Outlook**: The price will fluctuate strongly in the short term, but pay attention to the upper - level pressure [14]. Sugar - **View**: The sugar price is fluctuating at a low level. - **Logic**: In the medium - to - long - term, the global sugar market is expected to have a surplus in the 25/26 crushing season, leading to a downward trend in prices. In the short - term, the international market is relatively loose, and the domestic market has a marginal reduction in supply pressure. However, the price may face downward pressure again when the northern hemisphere enters the new sugar supply period [15]. - **Outlook**: The price will fluctuate weakly in the medium - to - long - term. Consider short - selling on rebounds [15]. Pulp - **View**: The financial trading atmosphere has driven up the pulp futures price, but the futures - spot price gap remains. - **Logic**: Although the pulp futures price has rebounded, the spot price has not increased significantly. The demand for softwood pulp is weak, and there is an over - supply situation for hardwood pulp. The futures price is close to the spot price, and it is difficult for the futures to have a premium. However, pay attention to the impact of restricted waste pulp imports on the market [16]. - **Outlook**: The market will fluctuate. It is advisable to wait and see, as changes in waste pulp may cause market fluctuations [16]. Double - Glued Paper - **View**: More paper mills are stabilizing prices, and the market is trading within a range. - **Logic**: The supply pressure remains due to new production capacity in the South China region. The demand from downstream printing factories is weak, and the decline in the price of upstream wood pulp has limited support for the cost. Although some paper mills are trying to stabilize prices, the market expectation is still pessimistic [17]. - **Outlook**: It is advisable to wait and see for unilateral strategies. Pay attention to new factors that may affect market sentiment [17]. Logs - **View**: Negative factors have led to a decline in log prices with reduced positions. - **Logic**: Informationally, the expected cancellation of the special port fee has led to long - position liquidation. Fundamentally, the concentrated arrival of goods at ports and weak sales of related products have put pressure on the spot market. The market is expected to be in a weak state, with a high probability of inventory accumulation in the future [20][21]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the near term, with a weakening fundamental situation and repeated information - based games [21].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the construction of a new development pattern in China, highlighting the growth of the futures market and the performance of key commodities such as stock indices, precious metals, and copper [1][2][3]. Futures Market Overview - As of October 9, 2025, the total funds in China's futures market reached approximately 2.02 trillion yuan, marking a 24% increase from the end of 2024 [1]. - Client equity in futures companies totaled about 1.91 trillion yuan, also reflecting a 24% growth from the end of 2024 [1]. Stock Indices - The U.S. stock indices rose, with the previous trading day seeing a slight recovery led by the communication sector, while the non-ferrous metals sector lagged [2]. - The market turnover was 1.75 trillion yuan, and as of October 17, the financing balance decreased by 27.3 billion yuan to 2.412835 trillion yuan [2]. - The article suggests that the stock indices are entering a phase of directional choice, with domestic liquidity expected to remain loose and external funds likely to flow into the domestic market due to anticipated Fed rate cuts and RMB appreciation [2]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices have been strong, although recent upward momentum has slowed [3]. - The article notes that central banks are increasing gold reserves amid rising global tensions and distrust in the financial system, reinforcing gold's status as a safe-haven asset [3]. - Silver's supply-demand imbalance is highlighted, with potential for increased volatility following rapid price increases [3]. Copper Market - Copper prices rose in the night session, supported by tight concentrate supply and high smelting output [3][20]. - The article mentions that investment in the power grid continues to grow, while real estate remains weak, impacting overall demand for copper [20]. - The potential for a global copper supply gap due to mining issues in Indonesia is expected to support copper prices in the long term [20]. Key Commodities Performance - The article provides insights into various commodities, including palm oil, corn, and lithium carbonate, indicating mixed performance and market dynamics influenced by external factors such as trade tensions and supply chain issues [5][22][28]. International and Domestic News - The U.S. and Australia signed an agreement to enhance the production of rare earths and critical minerals, with over $3 billion planned for investment in key mineral projects [6]. - China's LPR remained unchanged for five consecutive months, reflecting stable policy rates and potential for further monetary easing in response to economic conditions [7]. Industry Developments - The Dalian Commodity Exchange announced the listing of new futures contracts for linear low-density polyethylene, polyvinyl chloride, and polypropylene, expanding the range of tradable products [8]. Market Trends - The article notes that the market is currently cautious, with a focus on upcoming trade talks and the potential impact of U.S. fiscal policies on global markets [3][19]. - The overall sentiment in the commodities market is influenced by macroeconomic factors, including inflation expectations and geopolitical developments [3][19].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives individual ratings for different agricultural products: - **Oils and Fats**: Oscillating [5] - **Protein Meals**: Oscillating [6] - **Corn/Starch**: Oscillating [9] - **Hogs**: Oscillating Weakly [9] - **Natural Rubber**: Oscillating [10] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Oscillating [13] - **Cotton**: Oscillating Weakly [14] - **Sugar**: Oscillating Weakly [15] - **Pulp**: Oscillating Weakly [17] - **Offset Printing Paper**: Oscillating [18] - **Logs**: Oscillating Strongly [20] 2. Core Views of the Report - The agricultural market shows a complex situation with different products having their own supply - demand dynamics, influenced by factors such as macro - environment, trade relations, production, and consumption patterns. Overall, most products are expected to be in an oscillating state, with some showing a weakening or strengthening trend [5][9][14]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Views - **Oils and Fats**: Due to factors like the US government "shutdown", trade tensions, and mixed supply - demand expectations, oils and fats are expected to continue oscillating. Brazilian soybean production is expected to increase, and the inventory situation varies among different types of oils [5]. - **Protein Meals**: US soybean exports face challenges, while Brazilian soybean planting progresses smoothly. In China, short - term supply pressure is high, and long - term supply is expected to increase. Demand for protein meals may be stable or slightly increase [6]. - **Corn/Starch**: Market sentiment has improved, with spot prices stabilizing and futures rebounding. However, new - grain supply pressure exists in the short term, and the market is expected to be short - term bearish and long - term bullish [9]. - **Hogs**: Monthly supply - demand is loose, and hog prices are under pressure. In the short and medium term, supply is abundant, while in the long term, if the "anti - involution" policy leads to capacity reduction, supply pressure may ease in the second half of 2026 [9]. - **Natural Rubber**: NR shows a relatively strong performance, while RU is affected by over - expected state reserve sales. The market is influenced by factors such as raw material prices, import volume, and demand [10]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The price is at a low level and has rebounded from the bottom, but the fundamental pressure is large, and the market is expected to oscillate at the bottom [13]. - **Cotton**: Cotton prices have stabilized and oscillated. The expected reduction in Xinjiang cotton production and the outcome of Sino - US trade negotiations are the main influencing factors [14]. - **Sugar**: The international and domestic sugar markets are in a relatively loose supply situation. In the short term, there is some support, but in the medium - long term, prices are expected to decline [15]. - **Pulp**: The market remains weak, and pulp prices are at a low level. Although there are some short - term factors driving up futures prices, the overall fundamental situation is bearish [17]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: The market maintains a narrow - range oscillation, with supply increasing and demand remaining weak [18]. - **Logs**: The market is affected by the special port fee and weak fundamentals. Although there is a potential for short - term upward movement, the long - term outlook is still under pressure due to weak demand [20]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - The report lists the data monitoring section for different varieties, but no specific data details are provided in the content for further summary. 3.3 Commodity Index - On October 16, 2025, the comprehensive index, special index, and sector index of the commodity are presented. The special index shows an increase, while the agricultural product index has a decline in different time - periods [179][181].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oils and Fats**: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are expected to fluctuate [5]. - **Protein Meal**: Soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to fluctuate [6]. - **Corn and Starch**: Expected to fluctuate weakly [7]. - **Hogs**: Expected to fluctuate weakly [8]. - **Natural Rubber**: Expected to fluctuate; 20 - rubber is expected to fluctuate [10]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Expected to fluctuate [14]. - **Cotton**: Expected to fluctuate weakly [15]. - **Sugar**: Expected to fluctuate weakly [16]. - **Pulp**: Expected to fluctuate weakly [20]. - **Offset Paper**: Expected to fluctuate [21]. - **Logs**: Expected to fluctuate weakly [23]. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market trends of various agricultural products, including supply - demand relationships, inventory changes, and policy impacts. Overall, most agricultural products are expected to face a situation of weak fluctuations in the short - to - medium term, with a few showing potential for long - term improvement [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Views - **Oils and Fats**: Due to factors such as the smooth progress of Brazilian soybean planting, the "shutdown" of the US government affecting data updates, and changes in Indonesian biodiesel policies, soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are expected to fluctuate. The domestic soybean oil inventory may peak and decline, while palm oil may continue to accumulate inventory, and rapeseed oil inventory may continue to decrease [5]. - **Protein Meal**: The current supply pressure is dominant. With the smooth progress of US soybean harvesting, poor export prospects, and rapid sowing in South America, soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to fluctuate. The domestic supply of soybean meal is expected to increase in the fourth quarter, and the consumption demand is expected to be stable or slightly increase [6]. - **Corn and Starch**: New grain sales pressure is coming, and the futures and spot prices continue to decline. In the short term, the new grain harvest pressure needs to be resolved, and there is a risk of a short - term rebound due to tight inventory. In the long term, the corn market is expected to be in a pattern of short - term weakness and long - term strength [7]. - **Hogs**: After continuous price declines, farmers resist price cuts, and a small amount of second - fattening has entered the market. Supply is abundant in the short - term, and the demand is in the off - season after the National Day. In the long term, if the "anti - involution" policy is implemented, the supply pressure is expected to ease in the second half of 2026 [8]. - **Natural Rubber**: Due to weak fundamentals and the impact of the overall commodity atmosphere, the price center has moved down slightly. The macro factor accounts for a large proportion, and it is recommended to wait and see. It is expected to maintain a fluctuating bottom - seeking trend [10]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The market sentiment is weak, the cost side is weakening, and the overall production this year is high, resulting in high inventory. It is expected to maintain a fluctuating bottom - grinding trend, and there is a possibility of hitting a new low for the year [14]. - **Cotton**: Based on the expectation of a large increase in production in the new season, the cotton price is expected to fluctuate weakly. Before the large - increase production expectation is disproven, the operation idea is to short on rebounds [15]. - **Sugar**: In October, Brazil's sugar exports increased significantly, and both domestic and international sugar prices declined. In the long - term, the global sugar market is expected to have an oversupply situation, and the sugar price is expected to continue to decline [18]. - **Pulp**: In the short term, the futures price is sideways, and the spot price has increased. The main reason is the large virtual - to - real ratio of the 01 contract. Fundamentally, there are more negative factors, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly [20]. - **Offset Paper**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price fluctuates. The supply - demand pattern is loose, and there is pressure to lower prices in the tender [21]. - **Logs**: The delivery side is negative, and the futures price is in a weak state. The demand is weak, and the inventory is at a relatively high level. It is expected to fluctuate weakly [23]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - The report lists various agricultural product varieties, including oils and fats, protein meal, corn, starch, hogs, cotton, sugar, pulp, offset paper, and logs, but specific data monitoring details are not provided in the text [25][45][58]. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Composite Index**: The comprehensive index, specialty index (including the Commodity 20 Index and the Industrial Products Index), and sector index (Agricultural Products Index) are presented. The Agricultural Products Index increased by 0.06% on October 14, 2025, decreased by 1.81% in the past 5 days, decreased by 5.08% in the past month, and decreased by 3.22% since the beginning of the year [182][184].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oils and Fats**: Oscillating (Soybean oil), Oscillating (Palm oil), Oscillating with an upward bias (Rapeseed oil) [1][6] - **Protein Meal**: Oscillating (Soybean meal), Oscillating (Rapeseed meal) [7] - **Corn/Starch**: Oscillating with a downward bias [7][8] - **Hogs**: Oscillating with a downward bias [9] - **Natural Rubber**: Oscillating [10][11] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Oscillating [13][14] - **Cotton**: Oscillating with a downward bias (Mid - term), Oscillating (Short - term) [14][15] - **Sugar**: Oscillating with a downward bias (Long - term), Bouncing back from a low level (Short - term) [16] - **Pulp**: Oscillating [17] - **Double - Gum Paper**: Oscillating with a downward bias [19] - **Logs**: Oscillating [20] 2. Core Views of the Report - The oils and fats market is highly volatile due to trade policy changes, with different trends for soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils. Protein meal rebounds from a low level after the impact of Argentine soybean exports. Corn's upward trend is hard to sustain due to improved weather. Hog prices show a near - term weak and long - term strong pattern. Natural rubber maintains a narrow - range oscillation before the holiday, and synthetic rubber stays in an oscillating range. Cotton prices are expected to be weak in the medium - term due to expected yield increases. Sugar prices are expected to decline in the long - term due to expected supply surpluses. Pulp and double - gum paper show oscillating trends, and logs follow the market with a narrow - range oscillation [1][6][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes and Views - **Oils and Fats**: Concerns about delayed US soybean export demand led to a bearish oscillation of US soybeans on Wednesday, while domestic oils and fats rebounded on Thursday. The US dollar strengthened, and crude oil prices rose. US soybean harvest progress is normal, but the good - quality rate is lower than last year, and the probability of a further decline in yield is high. Argentine soybean export tax policy impact may end, and domestic soybean imports are expected to decrease seasonally. Palm oil production in Malaysia decreased in September, and exports increased, with limited inventory accumulation. Indonesian biodiesel demand for palm oil may be better than expected. Rapeseed oil imports are expected to be low before November, and domestic inventories may continue to decline [1][6] - **Protein Meal**: The impact of Argentine soybean exports has been realized, and the market rebounds from a low level. International soybean premiums are rising, and US soybeans are entering the harvest period. South American soybean sowing progress is slower than usual. In China, 20 ships of Argentine soybeans have been ordered, and short - term negative factors are exhausted. In the long - term, domestic soybean meal supply is expected to increase in Q4 2025 and the supply gap will disappear in Q1 2026 [7] - **Corn/Starch**: Domestic corn prices are weak. New corn in Heilongjiang's eastern region is on the market, and the purchase price is falling. In North China, the increase in price has slowed down due to improved weather. Argentina has cancelled corn export tariffs, but the impact is limited. In the short - term, there is pressure from new grain listing, and in the long - term, the market is expected to be short - term bearish and long - term bullish [7][8] - **Hogs**: In the short - term, hog supply is abundant, and in the medium - term, the number of hogs for slaughter is expected to increase. The "anti - involution" policy is guiding the industry to reduce production capacity. In the short - term, prices are under pressure, and in the long - term, prices may strengthen if the policy is effectively implemented [9] - **Natural Rubber**: Rubber prices oscillate before the holiday. The fundamentals are strong in the short - term, but there is an expectation of increased supply in Q4. Downstream pre - holiday stocking is basically over, and it is recommended to wait and see before the holiday [10][11] - **Synthetic Rubber**: The BR market continues to oscillate within a range. There are many device overhauls expected from September to November, and the price is at a low level, so the bearish sentiment has decreased. The raw material butadiene price oscillates slightly [13][14] - **Cotton**: New - season Xinjiang cotton production is expected to increase significantly. The inventory is tight in the near - term and loose in the long - term. Demand has improved seasonally, but the sustainability is questionable. Before new cotton harvest, the purchase price may support the futures price, but in the later stage, the price may decline [14][15] - **Sugar**: Zhengzhou sugar prices have fallen below 5500 yuan/ton, and the decline has slowed down. In the short - term, the international trade flow is loose, and domestic consumption and imports are not favorable. In the long - term, global sugar supply is expected to be abundant, and prices are under downward pressure [16] - **Pulp**: Pulp futures oscillate at a low level. After the 09 contract delivery, the market has reached a consensus on the price. The US dollar - denominated pulp price is expected to decline, and the paper market has not effectively transmitted the price. The overall fundamentals are weak, and the futures price is expected to oscillate [17] - **Double - Gum Paper**: Double - gum paper futures oscillate narrowly, and the position has decreased. The spot market is stable, but the demand is weak, and there is no clear upward or downward driver in the short - term. The long - term fundamentals are weak [19] - **Logs**: Logs follow the market and oscillate upwards, maintaining an oscillation around 800 yuan. The spot price is stable, and the inventory has decreased. The market is in a game between weak reality and peak - season expectation, and the fundamentals have improved marginally [20] 3.2 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index, specialty index (including commodity 20 index and industrial products index), and sector index (agricultural products index) show different trends. The specialty index and industrial products index have increased, and the agricultural products index has a daily increase of 0.65%, a 5 - day decrease of 0.81%, a 1 - month decrease of 1.97%, and a year - to - date decrease of 0.39% [179][181]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The fourth - quarter supply - demand and timing in 2025 may be comparable to that in 2018. Multiple scenarios are assumed for factors such as US soybean exports, yields, and biodiesel policies, as well as Canadian canola imports, to analyze potential impacts on the market [4][24][51] - It is expected that the prices of soybean and canola oil and meal will fluctuate greatly in the fourth quarter, and trading timing is difficult. Hedging is recommended, and the spread strategy between domestic and imported soybeans can be tried [7] Summary by Directory 1. Price Operating Range 1.1 2025 US Soybean and Soybean Meal Event Review - In 2024/2025, US soybeans had a large harvest, and Brazil's sowing was fast. In 2025, there were multiple rounds of tariff adjustments between China and the US, and the tariff on US soybeans decreased over time. The indicators of US soybeans in USDA's monthly reports were frequently adjusted, with lower production, higher domestic crushing consumption, lower exports, and roughly the same ending stocks compared to previous years [11][15] 1.2 2025 Canadian Rapeseed and Rapeseed Meal Event Review - Since 2024, there have been trade frictions between China and Canada regarding rapeseed. In 2025, the "anti - dumping investigation" and "anti - discrimination investigation" had results, and the investigation period was extended. The domestic rapeseed production was estimated to be stable, and the uncertainty lies in the import volume of Canadian rapeseed [20][22] 2. Supply - demand Overview of US Soybeans and Domestic Soybean Meal 2.1 US Soybeans - According to the USDA's September WASDE report, compared with the previous year, the planted area, harvested area, and ending stocks of US soybeans in 2025/2026 decreased slightly, while the yield per harvested acre and production increased slightly. The domestic crushing consumption increased significantly [23] - Three scenarios are assumed: if the yield per acre is reduced from 53.5 to 51 bushels/acre, the ending stocks will be greatly affected; if the export volume is reduced to a level similar to 2018, the ending stocks will increase; if the EPA reduces the RVO, the crushing volume in the balance sheet will be rewritten, but it is estimated that the crushing volume will not return to the level before 2023 [24][27] 2.2 Chinese Soybeans - According to the September balance sheet of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the import volume of new - crop soybeans in 2025/2026 decreased by about 10 million tons compared with the previous year, and the crushing consumption decreased by 4 million tons. The decrease in crushing consumption is related to the regulation of the pig - breeding industry and the promotion of low - protein diet technology [29][31] 3. Supply - demand Overview of Canadian Rapeseed and Domestic Rapeseed Meal 3.1 Canadian Rapeseed - According to the AAFC's August report, the planted area and harvested area of Canadian rapeseed in 2025 - 2026 decreased, while the yield increased, and the production increased slightly. The export volume decreased, and the ending stocks increased [32] - Two scenarios are assumed: if the export volume increases to the level of 2022/2023, the ending stocks will decrease; if the export volume decreases to the level of 2021/2022, the ending stocks will increase [41] 3.2 Chinese Rapeseed - According to the September forecast, the production of domestic rapeseed in 2025 increased slightly, and the import volume decreased. There is still room for adjustment in the import volume of Canadian rapeseed. Two scenarios are assumed: if the import volume is reduced to the 2019 level, the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has a small downward space; if the import volume is increased to the 2024 level, the spread has a large upward space [43][51] 4. Main Contract Spreads - Not elaborated in detail in the content, only relevant spread charts are mentioned 5. Main Supply - demand Data Overview - A large number of data charts on the production, cost, inventory, and trade of US soybeans, Brazilian soybeans, and Canadian rapeseed are provided, as well as data on domestic soybean and rapeseed processing, consumption, and livestock - breeding inventory [64][73][81]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings Overall Industry Outlook - The report does not provide a comprehensive investment rating for the entire agricultural industry. However, it offers individual outlooks for various agricultural products: - **Protein Meal (Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal)**: Oscillating weakly [2][6] - **Corn and Starch**: Oscillating [8] - **Pigs**: Oscillating weakly [9] - **Natural Rubber (RSS3 and TSR20)**: Oscillating [10][12] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Oscillating [13] - **Cotton**: Oscillating weakly in the medium - term, with short - term attention to support levels [14] - **Sugar**: Oscillating weakly in both the short and long term [15] - **Pulp**: Oscillating [16] - **Offset Printing Paper**: Consider interval operations between 4100 - 4400 [17] - **Logs**: Oscillating around 800 in the short term [19] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes multiple agricultural products. The main influencing factors include international policies (such as Argentina's cancellation of export tariffs), weather conditions, supply - demand relationships, and market sentiment. For example, Argentina's cancellation of soybean and other grain export tariffs impacts the global and domestic markets of related products, and weather conditions affect crop yields and harvest schedules [1][6][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Protein Meal - **Logic**: Argentina's cancellation of soybean export tariffs leads to a decrease in export prices and an expected increase in export volume, which is bearish for the domestic and international soybean markets. Domestically, the opening of import profit for Argentine soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil is expected to increase imports, causing short - term pressure on the domestic market. In the long run, domestic soybean meal supply may increase in Q4 2025, and the supply gap may disappear in Q1 2026. On the demand side, the consumption of soybean meal may increase steadily, while rapeseed meal follows the trend of soybean meal [1][6]. - **Outlook**: Both soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to oscillate weakly. It is recommended to take profits on previous long positions and then wait and see [2][6]. 3.2. Corn and Starch - **Logic**: The price of domestic corn shows regional differentiation. In the short term, there is pressure from the concentrated listing of new grain, and Argentina's cancellation of corn export tariffs also affects market sentiment. In the long term, the price is not pessimistic under the scenario of tightening carry - over inventory, presenting a short - term bearish and long - term bullish pattern [8]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds and reverse spread opportunities [8]. 3.3. Pigs - **Logic**: In the short term, the supply of pigs is abundant, and the cost of breeding is expected to decrease due to Argentina's policy. In the long term, if the "anti - involution" policy continues to be implemented, the supply pressure in 2026 will gradually weaken [9]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating weakly. The price is expected to face supply pressure after the National Day, and attention can be paid to reverse spread strategies [9]. 3.4. Natural Rubber - **Logic**: Rubber prices are relatively resistant to decline due to favorable fundamentals, showing a pattern of strong spot prices, inventory reduction, and narrowing basis. However, due to poor commodity sentiment, it is difficult to rise independently. In the short term, attention should be paid to the supply increase in the production area and the inventory reduction rate, as well as the downstream procurement willingness [12]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating strongly in the short term. Consider short - term long positions on pullbacks in September [12]. 3.5. Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: The BR futures contract oscillates within a range. The overall commodity trend is weak, but natural rubber is relatively strong, supporting the BR futures. The fundamentals and price operation logic have not changed significantly recently. The price is expected to continue to oscillate between 11300 - 12300 [13]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating within a range in the short term [13]. 3.6. Cotton - **Logic**: The expected increase in Xinjiang's cotton production in the new year leads to the market trading the expected supply surplus in advance, causing the cotton price to decline. The current inventory is tight, and the demand has improved seasonally, but the sustainability of the peak - season demand is questionable. The market shows a pattern of tight near - term and loose far - term supply [14]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating weakly in the medium term. In the short term, pay attention to the support at 13500 yuan/ton [14]. 3.7. Sugar - **Logic**: Zhengzhou sugar prices continue to decline, breaking through the 5500 yuan/ton level. Macroeconomically, the market has digested the Fed's interest - rate cut. Fundamentally, the international trade flow is loose, and domestic consumption and imports are not favorable. In the long term, the global sugar supply is expected to be abundant in the 25/26 crushing season [15]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating weakly in both the short and long term [15]. 3.8. Pulp - **Logic**: Pulp futures oscillate at a low level, with differences between near - term and far - term contracts. The market has both positive and negative factors, but the impact is not strong. The fundamentals are still bearish, but the futures price has already factored in the negative news, and the price of bleached northern softwood kraft pulp has stabilized [16]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating. It is recommended to wait and see [16]. 3.9. Offset Printing Paper - **Logic**: The futures price oscillates narrowly around 4200 yuan. The short - term fundamentals have limited changes, with sufficient supply and no obvious contradiction between supply and demand. Attention should be paid to new driving factors such as publishing tenders [17]. - **Outlook**: Consider interval operations between 4100 - 4400 [17]. 3.10. Logs - **Logic**: The log futures price oscillates narrowly. The fundamentals have marginally improved, but there is no strong upward driving force. From the perspective of delivery, it has a bearish impact on the futures price [19]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating around 800 in the short term [19].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold has a clear long - term driver due to the US fiscal deficit, debt expansion, and central banks' gold - buying. The expectation of the Fed's further interest rate cuts keeps the bullish sentiment alive [2][20]. - Crude oil prices are affected by EU sanctions on Russia and US drilling well numbers. Attention should be paid to OPEC's production increase [3][14]. - The Chinese capital market is in the initial stage of strategic allocation. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices are more offensive, while the SSE 50 and SSE 300 are more defensive [4][11][12]. - The "9·24" policy package has strengthened the "stability" and accelerated the "activity" of China's capital market [7]. - Manufacturing enterprises should increase investment in the whole process of data collection, storage, calculation, management, and application [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main News on the Day - **International News**: South Korea and the US have differences in the commercial feasibility guarantee of a $350 billion investment. South Korea plans to increase defense spending and hopes to resolve the tariff issue with the US [6]. - **Domestic News**: Since the implementation of the "9·24" policy package, the "stability" of China's capital market has been consolidated, and the "activity" has been accelerated. As of September 18, the margin trading balance was 24,024.65 billion yuan. The A - share market's daily trading volume has exceeded 3 trillion yuan several times this year, and the total market value has reached over 100 trillion yuan. In August, the number of new A - share accounts increased significantly [7]. - **Industry News**: The director of the National Data Bureau emphasized that manufacturing enterprises should increase investment in data - related processes to promote the implementation of "AI +" in the industry [8]. 3.2 Daily Returns of External Markets - The FTSE China A50 futures decreased by 0.17%, ICE Brent crude oil decreased by 1.27%, London gold spot increased by 1.22%, London silver increased by 3.24%, ICE No. 11 sugar increased by 0.31%, ICE No. 2 cotton decreased by 0.93%, CBOT soybeans decreased by 1.23%, CBOT soybean meal decreased by 0.32%, CBOT soybean oil decreased by 1.26%, CBOT wheat decreased by 0.52%, and CBOT corn decreased by 0.06% [9]. 3.3 Morning Comments on Major Varieties - **Financial Products** - **Stock Index**: The US stock market rose, while the previous trading day's stock index mainly corrected. The coal and non - ferrous sectors led the rise, and the automobile and pharmaceutical sectors led the decline. The market trading volume was 3.17 trillion yuan. The financing balance decreased on September 18. The market is in a high - level consolidation stage, but the long - term strategic allocation of the Chinese capital market has just begun [4][11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds continued to fall, and the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond rose to 1.80%. The central bank increased open - market operations, but the money market tightened. The Fed's interest rate cut increased the policy space for the domestic central bank, but the short - term money market and the high - level shock of the equity market led to the repeated low - level performance of bond futures [13]. - **Energy and Chemical Products** - **Crude Oil**: Crude oil prices dropped 1.55% at night. The EU proposed the 19th round of sanctions against Russia, including energy and finance. The US drilling well number increased. Attention should be paid to OPEC's production increase [3][14]. - **Methanol**: Methanol prices fluctuated at night. The average operating load of coal - to - olefin plants increased, while the overall methanol plant operating load decreased slightly. The coastal methanol inventory increased, and the short - term trend is bearish [15]. - **Rubber**: The natural rubber futures declined last week. The supply may increase, the bonded - area inventory decreased, and the tire production increased. The price may be supported by inventory reduction and rainfall, and the short - term decline is expected to be limited, with a possible oscillatory trend [16]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefins closed down. The spot market is mainly affected by supply and demand. The inventory is improving, and the decline in crude oil prices has stopped, which supports the chemical products. However, the market is worried about future demand, and polyolefins may continue to oscillate in the low - level range [17][18]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures rebounded slightly. The market supply - demand relationship is slowly recovering, and attention is focused on the supply - side reduction. The inventory of glass production enterprises decreased this week. Soda ash futures also rebounded slightly, and its production enterprise inventory decreased [19]. - **Metals** - **Precious Metals**: After the Fed's interest rate decision, gold and silver prices first declined and then strengthened on Friday night. The US initial jobless claims decreased, and the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points. The long - term driver of gold is clear, and the expectation of further rate cuts maintains the bullish sentiment [2][20]. - **Copper**: Copper prices rose 0.29% at night. The concentrate supply is tight, but the smelting output is growing. The power industry is growing, while the real estate is weak. Copper prices may fluctuate within a range [21]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices dropped 0.61% at night. The processing fee of zinc concentrate has increased, and the smelting output is expected to rise. The inventory of galvanized sheets increased. The short - term supply - demand may turn to surplus, and zinc prices may fluctuate weakly within a range [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The weekly production increased, and the inventory decreased. The demand for related materials also changed. Due to the expected mining - right change, the bullish logic is weakened, but the inventory reduction and pre - holiday procurement may support the price, and it may oscillate in the short term [23][24]. - **Black Metals** - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal and coke futures oscillated at a high level on Friday night. The steel output was basically flat, and the inventory increased. The short - term inventory pressure and profit reduction restrict the price, while policy expectations and demand support the price [25]. - **Iron Ore**: Steel mills have resumed production, and the demand for iron ore is supported. The global iron ore shipment has decreased, and the port inventory is decreasing rapidly. The market is optimistic about the future trend, considering the Fed's interest rate cut and pre - holiday replenishment [26]. - **Steel**: The profitability of steel mills remains stable, and the steel supply pressure is increasing. The steel inventory is accumulating, and the steel export situation is mixed. The market supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and the hot - rolled coil performs better than the rebar [27]. - **Agricultural Products** - **Protein Meal**: The soybean and rapeseed meal futures were strong at night. The USDA report had a neutral - to - bearish impact on the market. The positive signal of Sino - US trade relations may put pressure on the domestic market [28]. - **Edible Oils**: The soybean and palm oil futures were weak at night, while the rapeseed oil futures rose slightly. The production and export of Malaysian palm oil decreased, and the market is affected by the US biodiesel policy and the Fed's interest rate cut, with an expected oscillatory trend [29][30]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar market is in the inventory - accumulation stage, and the Brazilian sugar production and export situation is changing. The domestic sugar market is supported by high sales - to - production ratio and low inventory but is dragged down by import pressure. The short - term trend is weak, with a possible rebound [31]. - **Cotton**: The ICE US cotton futures declined. The international cotton supply pressure remains, and the domestic market is in the new - cotton acquisition stage. The new - cotton pre - sale and acquisition expectations support the price, but the high - yield expectation and weak downstream demand limit the upward momentum. The short - term trend is oscillatory [32]. - **Shipping Index** - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index of container shipping to Europe weakened rapidly on Friday, with the October contract falling below 1100 points. The SCFI European line price decreased, and the freight rate continued to decline in September. The shipping capacity will decrease in October, and the decline rate of freight rates may slow down after the National Day holiday [33].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oils and Fats**: Volatile. The market sentiment has weakened again, and oils and fats may continue to adjust in the near term. However, due to factors such as the expected increase in overseas production demand, the possibility of a further downward adjustment of US soybean yield, and the strong expectation of a Fed rate cut, there is a high probability that the price of oils and fats will rise again in the medium term [5]. - **Protein Meals**: Volatile. The Fed is about to cut interest rates, and attention should be paid to whether it exceeds expectations. The US soybean yield still has room for downward adjustment, and the progress of sowing in South America is uncertain. With both long and short positions coexisting, US soybeans will move in a volatile manner. Affected by spot inventory accumulation and weak sentiment, the protein meal futures price is testing the support at the lower edge of the range, and the basis fluctuates with the spot. It is recommended to hold long positions at 2900 - 2910 and add positions on dips. Oil mills are advised to sell hedges on rallies, and downstream enterprises are advised to buy basis contracts or fix prices on dips [5]. - **Corn/Starch**: Volatile and weak in the short term, with a long - term outlook of short - term bearish and long - term bullish. In the short term, pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds. For arbitrage, consider reverse arbitrage opportunities, with the core logic being to trade the pressure of new grain listing and the valuation correction after the selling pressure is largely released [7]. - **Hogs**: Volatile. As the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day holidays approach, festival demand may gradually start, but the hog supply in September is abundant, and the weight inventory is higher than the same period last year. Both supply and demand of hogs are increasing, and the spot price is expected to move in a volatile manner. From a futures perspective, hogs are still in the period of high - capacity realization in the fourth quarter. After the National Day, hog prices are expected to continue to face supply pressure, while the prices of far - month contracts are supported by the expectation of capacity reduction. There is a pattern of "weak reality + strong expectation", and attention should be paid to reverse arbitrage opportunities [8]. - **Natural Rubber**: Volatile and bullish in the short term. The macro sentiment is acceptable, and the fundamentals also have short - term support. The short - term trend of rubber prices is expected to be volatile and bullish [11]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Volatile. In the short term, there will be no major changes in the fundamentals and raw materials, and the futures price will move in a range - bound manner [13]. - **Cotton**: Volatile in the short term, with a reference range of 13800 - 14300 yuan/ton. In the short term, it will continue to fluctuate. Low inventory provides strong support for cotton prices at the bottom, but there is a lack of momentum for a rebound. Pay attention to the actual purchase price dynamics. When a large amount of new cotton is listed, the reality of increased production in the new year will gradually put downward pressure on cotton prices [13]. - **Sugar**: Volatile and weak in the long term, with a short - term reference range of 5500 - 5750 yuan/ton for single - side trading. In the long term, due to the expected supply surplus in the new crushing season, sugar prices have a downward driving force and are expected to be volatile and weak. In the short term, sugar prices stop falling and rebound [14]. - **Pulp**: Volatile. The internal contradictions of pulp are divided, with important long and short factors coexisting. The futures price of pulp is expected to move in a volatile manner, with an expected fluctuation range of 4950 - 5300 [15]. - **Offset Paper**: Volatile. It is difficult for the upward driving force to emerge, and offset paper moves in a narrow - range volatile manner. It is recommended to consider trading in the range of 4000 - 4500 [16]. - **Logs**: Volatile and bullish in the short term. It is expected that the market will continue to destock in September, and with the expectation of improved terminal demand on a month - on - month basis, log prices may stop falling and stabilize [18]. 2. Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products, including supply, demand, inventory, and price trends. For most products, there are short - term and long - term differences in market trends. For example, in the hog market, there is a pattern of "weak reality + strong expectation", with short - term supply pressure and long - term hope for price improvement due to capacity reduction. In the corn market, there is a short - term bearish and long - term bullish situation [8][7]. - The market sentiment and macro - economic factors, such as the Fed's interest - rate decision, the US soybean production situation, and the international trade environment, have a significant impact on the prices of agricultural products. For instance, the expected Fed rate cut affects the prices of oils and fats, protein meals, etc. The change in US soybean production and export also affects the relevant product markets [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Views - **Oils and Fats**: Market sentiment has weakened, and oils and fats may continue to adjust. From a macro perspective, the market has a strong expectation of a Fed rate cut in September, and the US dollar has weakened. Crude oil prices have risen due to concerns about Russian oil supply disruptions. From an industrial perspective, the drought - affected area of US soybeans has continued to expand, and the soybean yield may be further adjusted downward. The import volume of domestic soybeans is expected to decline seasonally, and the domestic soybean oil inventory may gradually peak. The flood in the Sabah region of Malaysia may affect palm oil production, and the palm oil inventory in September is likely to continue to increase. The domestic rapeseed oil inventory is slowly declining, but it is still higher than the same period last year. The relationship between China and Canada remains uncertain [5]. - **Protein Meals**: The cost support has shifted downward, and the prices of double - meal futures continue to decline. Internationally, the Fed is likely to cut interest rates this week. The US soybean area has been increased, and the yield has been slightly adjusted downward. The soybean sowing progress in Brazil is slow, and the South American premium has weakened. Domestically, in the short term, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills continues to accumulate, and the physical inventory of feed enterprises' soybean meal has increased slightly. The spot and basis are running at a low level. In the long term, there is no supply gap before December. The demand for soybean meal is expected to be stable or increase slightly, and rapeseed meal is expected to follow soybean meal and move in a volatile manner [5]. - **Corn/Starch**: Recent continuous rainfall has occurred, and attention should be paid to the grain quality. The domestic corn price is generally weak. The supply of old - crop corn is decreasing, and the inventory in each link is declining. In the Northeast, the supply of old - crop corn is tight, and new - crop corn has not been listed in large quantities. In North China, continuous rainfall has led to problems such as moldy and bald ears in some areas, and the price has continued to decline. In the short term, the market will face the pressure of new - crop corn listing. In the long term, the price is not pessimistic in the context of a tighter carry - over inventory [7]. - **Hogs**: The policy of weight reduction and production limitation continues, and the near - month contracts are under pressure. On September 16, the Ministry of Agriculture continued to guide breeding enterprises to reduce production capacity. From September 18 - 19, 15,000 tons of hog reserves will be rotated. In the short term, the planned hog slaughter volume in September has increased by 4% compared with that in August. In the medium term, the number of newborn piglets has been increasing, and the hog slaughter volume is expected to increase in the second half of the year. In the long term, if the policy of capacity reduction is effectively implemented in the fourth quarter, the supply pressure in 2026 will be gradually reduced. The ratio of meat to hog price has slightly increased, and the price difference between fat and lean pigs is stable. The utilization rate of secondary - fattening pens has continued to decline. In the short term, the hog price is under pressure, and in the long term, the hog price may gradually strengthen [8]. - **Natural Rubber**: It has adjusted downward following the overall commodity market. The short - term reality shows strong spot, inventory reduction, and a continuously narrowing basis. However, it is difficult to break through the previous high without further positive driving factors. The supply situation in the producing areas is improving, and attention should be paid to the supply volume and inventory reduction rate. The downstream procurement intention needs to be observed [11]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It has returned to a weak trend, mainly dragged down by the overall commodity market. The absolute price and operating logic of the futures have changed little recently, and it mainly follows the movement of natural rubber. In the medium - term, due to the expected high - frequency equipment maintenance from September to November and the low price, the bearish sentiment has cooled down, and the bottom support is strong, but there is no continuous upward driving force [13]. - **Cotton**: The cotton price continues to fluctuate slightly. New cotton in Xinjiang has begun to be purchased in small quantities, and the market is waiting for the purchase price to provide guidance. The cotton inventory is low, and the downstream demand has improved marginally, but the demand - side positive factors are not strong. The USDA September report has not adjusted the US cotton production and has raised the Chinese cotton production, but it is still underestimated [13]. - **Sugar**: The sugar price continues to fluctuate. In the long term, the global sugar market is expected to have a supply surplus in the 25/26 crushing season, and the sugar price has a downward driving force. In the short term, the production and export of Brazilian sugar are in the peak season, and the domestic import volume has increased. The fundamentals are relatively loose, but the short - term downward space is limited, and there is a certain support for a rebound [14]. - **Pulp**: There is no obvious breakthrough - type driving force, and the pulp maintains a volatile trend. The futures price of pulp has been moving horizontally, and the spot trading of softwood pulp is weak, while that of hardwood pulp is slightly better. The price increase of the US dollar - denominated pulp has weakened, and the new supply from Chenming's resumption of production has increased. The demand has entered the seasonal peak season, but the upward transmission of terminal demand is weak. The pulp futures valuation is at a low level, but the problem of needle - pulp warehouse receipts suppresses the futures price [15]. - **Offset Paper**: It is difficult for the upward driving force to emerge, and offset paper moves in a narrow - range volatile manner. The trading volume of offset paper at the initial stage of listing is limited, and there is no substantial driving force. In the short term, the fundamentals have not changed significantly, and the tendering of publishers has not started. The market lacks a clear upward or downward driving force. In the long - term, the fundamentals of offset paper are weak, and the market has a strong bearish expectation. It is recommended to consider trading in the range of 4000 - 4500 [16]. - **Logs**: The processing demand has warmed up, and the spot price has boosted the futures price to move in a volatile and bullish manner. The downstream sales of logs have improved, and the inventory has decreased slightly. The market is in a stage of game between weak reality and peak - season expectation. The arrival pressure in September has improved, but the import volume is expected to increase seasonally in October. The demand for logs in China is expected to increase from September to October, and the spot price is in a bottom - building trend [18]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring The report lists the data monitoring of various varieties, including prices, price changes, and inventory information of oils and fats, protein meals, corn, starch, hogs, cotton, sugar, pulp, offset paper, and logs, but no specific data analysis is provided in the given text. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index of commodities on September 17, 2025, shows that the commodity 20 index is 2515.59, down 0.45%; the industrial product index is 2270.66, up 0.04% [178]. - **Agricultural Product Index**: On September 17, 2025, the agricultural product index is 961.10, with a daily decline of 0.69%, a decline of 0.99% in the past 5 days, a decline of 2.21% in the past month, and an increase of 0.67% since the beginning of the year [180].