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建信期货油脂日报-20251010
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-10-10 01:49
Group 1: Report Information - Industry: Oil and fat [1] - Date: October 10, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operational Suggestions Market Review | Contract | Previous Settlement Price | Opening Price | High Price | Low Price | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | P2605 | 9004 | 9250 | 9364 | 9204 | 9360 | 356 | 3.95% | 56876 | 96520 | 7060 | | P2601 | 90616 | 9452 | 9580 | 9438 | 9570 | 380 | 4.13% | 509596 | 379054 | 46907 | | Y2605 | 7876 | 7996 | 8096 | 7972 | 8074 | 198 | 2.51% | 60570 | 224422 | 5157 | | Y2601 | 8114 | 8212 | 8340 | 8212 | 8332 | 218 | 2.69% | 336990 | 506255 | -8109 | | O1605 | 9522 | 9619 | 9749 | 9617 | 9729 | 207 | 2.17% | 13285 | 52813 | 254 | | OI601 | 10046 | 10160 | 10266 | 10129 | 10248 | 202 | 2.01% | 209869 | 329150 | 25710 | [7] Spot Price and Basis - East China third - grade rapeseed oil: Spot price is OI2601 + 270 (October - November: OI2601 + 280). East China first - grade rapeseed oil in October is OI2601 + 390. - East China first - grade soybean oil basis price: November - January is 01 + 230, December - February is 01 + 240, January - March is 01 + 200, April - July is 05 + 250. - Guangdong traders' palm oil quotes: Dongguan factories' 24 - degree palm oil is 01 - 70; Dongguan Chunjin's 24 - degree palm oil is 01 + 0. [7] Core View - After the holiday, the three major oils strongly made up for losses. The palm oil main contract P2601 was the strongest, with a gain of over 4%. - The Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) will release an official monthly report on October 10. A survey shows that Malaysia's palm oil inventory in September will decline for the first time since February due to increased exports and decreased production. - Indonesia is promoting the B50 biodiesel blending project, raising concerns about tight palm oil supply. - Near - term rapeseed oil continues the de - stocking trend, with relatively concentrated supply. Traders mainly hold prices for shipment, and the basis quote continues to rise. Pay attention to China - Canada trade progress and rapeseed raw material supply, and mainly allocate more. - In the case of soybean oil, the estimated soybean imports in the fourth quarter are still relatively sufficient, but the import cost has increased, providing support at the lower level. - The oil and fat sector is dominated by long - position funds. It is advisable to buy at low levels and roll long positions. [8] Group 3: Industry News - The Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA) said that the estimated palm oil production in Malaysia in September 2025 was 1.81 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.35%. The production in Peninsular Malaysia decreased by 6.17% month - on - month, the production in Sabah increased by 2.35% month - on - month, the production in Sarawak increased by 6.62% month - on - month, and the production in East Malaysia increased by 3.44% month - on - month. - Data from the Southern Palm Oil Millers Association (SPPOMA) in Malaysia showed that from October 1 - 5, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 12.55% month - on - month, with the fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield per unit area increasing by 11.61% month - on - month and the oil extraction rate (OER) increasing by 0.18% month - on - month. - A survey shows that Malaysia's palm oil inventory in September will decline for the first time since February. The production is expected to be 1.794 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.3%, the export volume is expected to be 1.427 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.7%, and the inventory will drop to 2.146 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.5%. - Indonesia's Energy Ministry announced that the laboratory tests for B50 fuel were completed in August. The next step is to conduct road tests and applicability tests for non - automotive diesel machinery to ensure the safety of B50 use. The government is accelerating the implementation of the mandatory blending policy of biodiesel (B50) with a 50% palm oil ratio in 2026 to reduce dependence on imported diesel, and it is expected to launch B50 biodiesel in the second half of 2026. - Brazil's Energy Ministry's biofuel director said that the policy to increase the biodiesel blending ratio in diesel from 15% to 16% in March 2026 may not be implemented on schedule due to the government's incomplete technical feasibility study report, tight policy promotion time, and high implementation difficulty. [9][10][17] Group 4: Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the spot price of East China third - grade rapeseed oil, the spot price of East China fourth - grade soybean oil, the spot price of South China 24 - degree palm oil, palm oil basis changes, soybean oil basis changes, rapeseed oil basis changes, P1 - 5 spread, P5 - 9 spread, P9 - 1 spread, US dollar - Malaysian ringgit exchange rate, and US dollar - Chinese yuan exchange rate. All data sources are Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures. [11][16][18][22][27][28]