油脂日报 | 2025-12-12 政策不确定性增加，油脂宽幅震荡 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2605合约8642.00元/吨，环比变化+100元，幅度+1.17%；昨日收盘豆油2605合约8036.00 元/吨，环比变化+36.00元，幅度+0.45%；昨日收盘菜油2605合约9599.00元/吨，环比变化+156.00元，幅度+1.65%。 现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8670.00元/吨，环比变化-10.00元，幅度-0.12%，现货基差P05+28.00，环比变化 -110.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8420.00元/吨，环比变化+10.00元/吨，幅度+0.12%，现货基差Y05+384.00， 环比变化-26.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9850.00元/吨，环比变化+160.00元，幅度+1.65%，现货基差 OI05+251.00，环比变化+4.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：加拿大菜籽(1月船期)C&F价格515美元/吨，与上个交易日相比下调1美元/吨；加拿大菜籽(3月 船期)C&F价格523美元/吨，与上个交易日相比下调2美元/吨。阿根廷豆油(1月船期)C&F价格 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of the three major oils fluctuated yesterday. With good rapeseed production in Canada and good progress in soybean planting in Brazil, the overall supply is expected to remain loose in the future [3] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures - The closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract yesterday was 8,828.00 yuan/ton, a change of -14 yuan or -0.16% compared to the previous day [1] - The closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract yesterday was 8,168.00 yuan/ton, a change of +36.00 yuan or +0.44% [1] - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract yesterday was 9,529.00 yuan/ton, a change of +4.00 yuan or +0.04% [1] Spot - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8,690.00 yuan/ton, with no change, and the spot basis was P01 - 138.00, a change of +14.00 yuan [1] - The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,340.00 yuan/ton, a change of +60.00 yuan/ton or +0.72%, and the spot basis was Y01 + 172.00, a change of +24.00 yuan [1] - The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,900.00 yuan/ton, with no change, and the spot basis was OI01 + 371.00, a change of -4.00 yuan [1] Market News - In September 2025, Canada's rapeseed crushing volume was 1,007,389 tons, an increase of 16.07% from the previous month and 7.97% from the same period last year. Rapeseed oil production was 425,330 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15.8% and a year - on - year increase of 7.72%. Rapeseed meal production was 589,724 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.52% and a year - on - year increase of 8.32%. The cumulative rapeseed crushing volume in the 2025/26 season was 1,875,333 tons, rapeseed oil production was 792,629 tons, and rapeseed meal production was 1,104,666 tons [2] - The estimated soybean production in Paraná, Brazil, for the 2025/26 season is 21.96 million tons, higher than the September forecast of 21.94 million tons. The estimated first - crop corn production is 346,000 tons, higher than the September forecast of 340,000 tons. The estimated wheat production is 275,000 tons, higher than the previous month's forecast of 268,000 tons [2]

Group 1: Report Information - Industry: Oil and fat [1] - Date: October 10, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operational Suggestions Market Review | Contract | Previous Settlement Price | Opening Price | High Price | Low Price | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | P2605 | 9004 | 9250 | 9364 | 9204 | 9360 | 356 | 3.95% | 56876 | 96520 | 7060 | | P2601 | 90616 | 9452 | 9580 | 9438 | 9570 | 380 | 4.13% | 509596 | 379054 | 46907 | | Y2605 | 7876 | 7996 | 8096 | 7972 | 8074 | 198 | 2.51% | 60570 | 224422 | 5157 | | Y2601 | 8114 | 8212 | 8340 | 8212 | 8332 | 218 | 2.69% | 336990 | 506255 | -8109 | | O1605 | 9522 | 9619 | 9749 | 9617 | 9729 | 207 | 2.17% | 13285 | 52813 | 254 | | OI601 | 10046 | 10160 | 10266 | 10129 | 10248 | 202 | 2.01% | 209869 | 329150 | 25710 | [7] Spot Price and Basis - East China third - grade rapeseed oil: Spot price is OI2601 + 270 (October - November: OI2601 + 280). East China first - grade rapeseed oil in October is OI2601 + 390. - East China first - grade soybean oil basis price: November - January is 01 + 230, December - February is 01 + 240, January - March is 01 + 200, April - July is 05 + 250. - Guangdong traders' palm oil quotes: Dongguan factories' 24 - degree palm oil is 01 - 70; Dongguan Chunjin's 24 - degree palm oil is 01 + 0. [7] Core View - After the holiday, the three major oils strongly made up for losses. The palm oil main contract P2601 was the strongest, with a gain of over 4%. - The Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) will release an official monthly report on October 10. A survey shows that Malaysia's palm oil inventory in September will decline for the first time since February due to increased exports and decreased production. - Indonesia is promoting the B50 biodiesel blending project, raising concerns about tight palm oil supply. - Near - term rapeseed oil continues the de - stocking trend, with relatively concentrated supply. Traders mainly hold prices for shipment, and the basis quote continues to rise. Pay attention to China - Canada trade progress and rapeseed raw material supply, and mainly allocate more. - In the case of soybean oil, the estimated soybean imports in the fourth quarter are still relatively sufficient, but the import cost has increased, providing support at the lower level. - The oil and fat sector is dominated by long - position funds. It is advisable to buy at low levels and roll long positions. [8] Group 3: Industry News - The Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA) said that the estimated palm oil production in Malaysia in September 2025 was 1.81 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.35%. The production in Peninsular Malaysia decreased by 6.17% month - on - month, the production in Sabah increased by 2.35% month - on - month, the production in Sarawak increased by 6.62% month - on - month, and the production in East Malaysia increased by 3.44% month - on - month. - Data from the Southern Palm Oil Millers Association (SPPOMA) in Malaysia showed that from October 1 - 5, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 12.55% month - on - month, with the fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield per unit area increasing by 11.61% month - on - month and the oil extraction rate (OER) increasing by 0.18% month - on - month. - A survey shows that Malaysia's palm oil inventory in September will decline for the first time since February. The production is expected to be 1.794 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.3%, the export volume is expected to be 1.427 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.7%, and the inventory will drop to 2.146 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.5%. - Indonesia's Energy Ministry announced that the laboratory tests for B50 fuel were completed in August. The next step is to conduct road tests and applicability tests for non - automotive diesel machinery to ensure the safety of B50 use. The government is accelerating the implementation of the mandatory blending policy of biodiesel (B50) with a 50% palm oil ratio in 2026 to reduce dependence on imported diesel, and it is expected to launch B50 biodiesel in the second half of 2026. - Brazil's Energy Ministry's biofuel director said that the policy to increase the biodiesel blending ratio in diesel from 15% to 16% in March 2026 may not be implemented on schedule due to the government's incomplete technical feasibility study report, tight policy promotion time, and high implementation difficulty. [9][10][17] Group 4: Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the spot price of East China third - grade rapeseed oil, the spot price of East China fourth - grade soybean oil, the spot price of South China 24 - degree palm oil, palm oil basis changes, soybean oil basis changes, rapeseed oil basis changes, P1 - 5 spread, P5 - 9 spread, P9 - 1 spread, US dollar - Malaysian ringgit exchange rate, and US dollar - Chinese yuan exchange rate. All data sources are Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures. [11][16][18][22][27][28]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of edible oils are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic edible oil supply is stable. Affected by Argentina's tariff policy, the supply of beans and oils has increased, leading to an overall adjustment in the prices of oilseeds and oils. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and the demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US biodiesel policy for soybean oil supports the increase in biodiesel consumption. The imposition of tariffs on Canadian rapeseed in China has led to a rise in the rapeseed sector. The domestic edible oil fundamentals are neutral, and the import inventory is stable. The easing of Sino - US and Sino - Canadian relations affects the market at the macro - level. [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Daily View of Different Oils 3.1.1 Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that in August, the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 9.8% month - on - month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, and the production reduction is less than expected. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month shows a 4% month - on - month increase, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the subsequent production season. [2] - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,512, with a basis of 179, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. [2] - **Inventory**: On August 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from the previous period and a 11.7% increase year - on - year. [2] - **Market**: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward. [2] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased. [2] - **Expectation**: The price of soybean oil Y2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,000 - 8,500. [2] 3.1.2 Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report shows neutral conditions, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the subsequent production season. [3] - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 9,598, with a basis of - 28, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price. [3] - **Inventory**: On August 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous period and a 34.1% decrease year - on - year. [3] - **Market**: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward. [3] - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main palm oil contract have decreased. [3] - **Expectation**: The price of palm oil P2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,350 - 9,750. [3] 3.1.3 Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to the above two oils, the MPOB report shows neutral conditions, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the subsequent production season. [4] - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10,386, with a basis of 138, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. [4] - **Inventory**: On August 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous period and a 3.2% increase year - on - year. [4] - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. [4] - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have increased. [4] - **Expectation**: The price of rapeseed oil OI2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,000 - 10,400. [4] 3.2 Recent利多利空Analysis - **Positive Factors**: The inventory - to - sales ratio of US soybeans remains around 4%, indicating a tight supply. There is a tremor season for palm oil. [5] - **Negative Factors**: The prices of edible oils are at a relatively high historical level, and the domestic edible oil inventory has been continuously increasing. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related edible oils is high. [5] - **Main Logic**: The global edible oil fundamentals are relatively loose. [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The domestic driving force for edible oils is insufficient, and future price movements depend on positive factors from the origin. In the short - term, the market will trade within a range. Pay attention to China - US and China - Canada relations, the de - stocking progress of palm oil origins, and the implementation of the B40 plan. Consider opportunities such as the positive spread trading of rapeseed oil 1 - 5 contracts and buying palm oil 01 contracts on dips [1]. - In the near - term, there is still pressure on domestic edible oils. The supply of soybeans is sufficient, and there is a risk of over - inventory for soybean oil. Rapeseed oil has high inventory, and palm oil supply may increase. The demand for edible oils is mainly for essential needs, but the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day holidays may boost catering consumption [3][5]. - In the long - term, the edible oil market will focus on the final determination of the US biofuel obligation policy, the supply - demand balance of palm oil origins, the progress of Indonesia's B40 and B50 policies, and China - US and China - Canada relations [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - The US biodiesel policy is uncertain. In the palm oil market, Malaysia entered the production - reduction season in September, while Indonesia's production is normal. The B40 plan in Indonesia may speed up at the end of the year. For soybean oil, Brazil's soybean sowing progress is fast, and global soybean supply is abundant. The purchase of Argentine soybeans can make up for part of the US soybean gap, delaying the tight supply of domestic soybean oil. For rapeseed oil, Canada's new - season output is optimistic, but the supply may still be tight due to the uncertainty of China - Canada relations and limited substitution from Australian rapeseed [1]. 3.1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: Short - term wide - range oscillation. The price ranges are P2601 [9000 - 9900], Y2601 [8000 - 8700], and OI [9600 - 10500]. Consider the opportunity of rebound after over - decline. Technically, consider going long on P2601 at low levels [13]. - **Basis, Calendar Spread, and Hedging Arbitrage Strategies**: For basis strategies, use accumulated option purchases to reduce basis risk. For calendar spread strategies, consider positive spread trading for P1 - 5 at low levels (190, 200). For hedging arbitrage strategies, expect the rapeseed - soybean spread to widen and the soybean - palm spread to narrow [13]. 3.1.3 Industry Client Operation Recommendations - **Price Range Forecast**: The price ranges for soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil are 8000 - 8400, 9700 - 10300, and 8900 - 9500 respectively [15]. - **Hedging Strategies**: Traders with high inventory can short Y2601 to lock in profits. Refineries with low inventory can buy Y2601 to lock in procurement costs. Oil mills worried about over - inventory can short Y2601 [15]. 3.1.4 Basic Data Overview - Provides the latest prices and price changes of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures and spot markets, as well as spreads between different contracts and varieties [18][19][20][21]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Focus Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: Malaysia's palm oil exports from September 1 - 30 increased by 7.3% month - on - month. The operating rate of domestic rapeseed oil mills decreased for the second consecutive week. The operating rate of domestic soybean oil mills decreased during the holiday [22][23]. - **Negative Information**: On September 26, the commercial inventory of three major edible oils in China was 240 million tons, still at a high level in recent years. As of last Thursday, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean planting progress reached 3.2% [24]. - **Spot Transaction Information**: Palm oil transactions improved slightly, soybean oil transactions decreased, and rapeseed oil had almost no transactions [25]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - September 29 domestic weekly inventory data, high - frequency production and export data of Malaysian palm oil, and progress on the US small - refinery exemption re - allocation decision [30]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Domestic Market**: This week, the edible oil market oscillated and sorted. Rapeseed oil was relatively strong, while soybean oil and palm oil oscillated. Some speculative funds left the market cautiously. The market is in a multi - empty situation, and the downward space is limited, expected to trade in a range. Pay attention to the rebound opportunity of palm oil after over - decline [31]. - **Capital Trends**: Key profitable positions in palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are cautious. Palm oil prices are at a medium - low level historically, with decreasing positions and a weak short - term trend. Soybean oil prices are declining with decreasing positions and increasing negative trend. Rapeseed oil prices are rising, with significant position fluctuations and cautious market sentiment [31]. - **Calendar Spread Structure**: The near - month term structure of edible oils is steeper. The OI1 - 5 positive spread continues to strengthen due to the expected tight supply of rapeseed oil at the end of this year and in the first quarter of next year. P1 - 5 and Y1 - 5 positive spreads are mainly consolidating [33]. - **Basis Structure**: This week, the basis of major edible oil contracts was weak. High domestic inventory and weak demand led to a continued weak basis [51]. - **Spread Structure**: This week, the rapeseed - palm and rapeseed - soybean spreads strengthened. Rapeseed oil supply in the fourth quarter is not optimistic, while the supply pressure of soybean oil and palm oil has eased [55]. - **Foreign Market**: The domestic market followed the foreign market to oscillate and then weaken. Uncertainties in China - US and China - Canada relations and the closure of Argentine exports limited further downward movement. CBOT soybean oil managed funds reduced their net positions, while producers/ traders/ processors/ users increased their positions slightly [57]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking - The POGO spread is slightly lower but still at a high level, and the BOHO spread is at a low level. The overall cost of bio - fuel production remains high due to the low - price competition of Argentine soybean oil [65]. 3.4.2 Import - Export Profit Tracking - China is a net importer of palm oil. The import cost has slightly decreased, and the import profit inversion has narrowed slightly. However, due to weak domestic demand and inventory pressure, the probability of a significant increase in purchasing is low [68]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Origin Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - Malaysia's palm oil production is expected to decline in the fourth quarter due to drought in the first quarter and floods in September. The inventory pressure will be further relieved, and the inventory - to - sales ratio is expected to decline [70]. 3.5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - **Palm Oil**: The procurement intention of traders is low. The monthly purchase volume in September and October is about 200,000 tons. The supply pressure in the fourth quarter is not large, and inventory is expected to decline further. - **Soybean Oil**: The arrival of soybeans in September and October is high, and the supply in the fourth quarter is sufficient. However, the soybean crushing volume may decrease in December, and the supply of soybean oil may be tight if US soybean purchases are difficult [72][73]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The domestic inventory is high, and demand is weak. High inventory will be gradually reduced in the fourth quarter. If China - Canada relations do not improve, supply may be tight from the end of this year to the first quarter of next year [73]. 3.5.3 Demand - Side and Deduction - In the short term, the inventory pressure of three major edible oils is large, and demand is weak. The Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day holidays may boost catering consumption, but overall terminal demand is still weak compared to last year [75].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The market anticipates a further build - up of Malaysian palm oil inventories, possibly reaching a multi - year high. With sufficient rapeseed and soybean yields, the overall supply side of the oil market faces significant pressure, causing the oil market to remain under continuous pressure [3] Group 3: Summary of Specific Content Futures Prices - The closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract was 9,368.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of - 54 yuan (- 0.57%); the closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract was 8,366.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of + 10.00 yuan (+ 0.12%); the closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 9,727.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of - 39.00 yuan (- 0.40%) [1] Spot Prices - In Guangdong, the spot price of palm oil was 9,300.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of - 80.00 yuan (- 0.85%), and the spot basis was P01 + - 68.00, with a环比 change of - 26.00 yuan; in Tianjin, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8,480.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of + 0.00 yuan/ton (+ 0.00%), and the spot basis was Y01 + 114.00, with a环比 change of - 10.00 yuan; in Jiangsu, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9,880.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of - 20.00 yuan (- 0.20%), and the spot basis was OI01 + 153.00, with a环比 change of + 19.00 yuan [1] Market Consultation - Reuters survey shows that Malaysia's palm oil inventory in August 2025 is expected to be 2.2 million tons, a 4.06% increase from July, reaching the highest level since December 2023; production is expected to be 1.86 million tons, a 2.5% increase from July, rising to the highest level since August last year; exports are expected to be 1.45 million tons, a 10.7% increase from July, reaching a nine - month high [2] - Canadian rapeseed (November shipment) C&F price increased by 1 dollar/ton to 526 dollars/ton; Canadian rapeseed (January shipment) C&F price increased by 4 dollars/ton to 525 dollars/ton [2] - Argentine soybean oil (October shipment) C&F price increased by 4 dollars/ton to 1,161 dollars/ton; Argentine soybean oil (December shipment) C&F price increased by 6 dollars/ton to 1,163 dollars/ton [2] - Imported rapeseed oil C&F quotes: Canadian rapeseed oil (October shipment) remained at 1,080 dollars/ton; Canadian rapeseed oil (December shipment) remained at 1,060 dollars/ton [2] - US Gulf soybeans (October shipment) C&F price decreased by 3 dollars/ton to 470 dollars/ton; US West soybeans (October shipment) C&F price decreased by 9 dollars/ton to 442 dollars/ton; Brazilian soybeans (October shipment) C&F price decreased by 1 dollar/ton to 486 dollars/ton [2] - Imported soybean premium quotes: Mexican Gulf (October shipment) increased by 5 cents/bu to 240 cents/bu; US West Coast (October shipment) decreased by 10 cents/bu to 165 cents/bu; Brazilian ports (October shipment) increased by 10 cents/bu to 285 cents/bu [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the oil and fat industry is neutral [4] Core View of the Report - The recovery of palm oil production in Malaysia, the increase in the expected rapeseed production in Canada, and favorable weather in the US soybean - producing areas have led to a prominent oversupply of oils and fats, causing prices to fluctuate under pressure [3] Summary by Related Contents Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: On the previous trading day, the closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract was 8994.00 yuan/ton, a change of +68 yuan or +0.76% compared to the previous day; the soybean oil 2509 contract closed at 8074.00 yuan/ton, a change of -2.00 yuan or -0.02%; the rapeseed oil 2509 contract closed at 9456.00 yuan/ton, a change of -21.00 yuan or -0.22% [1] - Spot: In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 9100.00 yuan/ton, a change of +140.00 yuan or +1.56%, with a spot basis of P09 + 106.00, a change of +72.00 yuan; in the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8220.00 yuan/ton, a change of +10.00 yuan/ton or +0.12%, with a spot basis of Y09 + 146.00, a change of +12.00 yuan; in the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9560.00 yuan/ton, a change of -20.00 yuan or -0.21%, with a spot basis of OI09 + 104.00, a change of +1.00 yuan [1] Market Information Summary - Canada: The July supply - demand report of the Canadian Agriculture and Agri - Food Department (AAFC) adjusted key data. The 2024/25 rapeseed production forecast was significantly increased to about 19.19 million tons from the previous 17.85 million tons, and the old - crop rapeseed export forecast was raised to 9.5 million tons. The 2025/26 rapeseed production forecast was lowered by 200,000 tons to 17.8 million tons, with a yield of 2.08 tons per hectare, lower than the previous year's 2.17 tons per hectare [2] - Malaysia: According to the Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA), the estimated palm oil production in Malaysia from July 1 - 20 increased by 11.24% compared to the same period last month, with an 18.95% increase in the Malay Peninsula, a 0.14% decrease in Sabah, a 0.41% increase in Sarawak, and a 0.01% increase in East Malaysia [2] - Indonesia: In May, due to a surge in exports, Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased by 4.27% month - on - month to 2.9 million tons. The export volume of palm oil and refined products reached 2.66 million tons, a nearly 50% increase from April and a 35.64% year - on - year increase, mainly driven by the demand from India and China. The crude palm oil production in May was 4.17 million tons, lower than April's 4.48 million tons but a 7.2% increase compared to the same period last year [2]

Report Overview - Report Date: July 17, 2025 - Report Source: Wukuang Futures Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The soybean market is affected by multiple factors such as North American weather, trade wars, and bio - diesel policies, and is expected to maintain a range - bound trend. The domestic soybean meal market is multi - faceted, with suggestions to buy at low levels within the cost range and pay attention to supply pressure and tariff progress [3][5]. - The palm oil market is influenced by factors like export data and production, and the overall oil market is affected by the EPA policy and production increases. It is expected to fluctuate, with potential for a rise in the fourth quarter [6][9]. - The sugar market may see a downward trend in the future, considering the import profit window and the expected increase in imports [11][12]. - The cotton market is expected to be volatile in the short term, affected by factors such as the non - finalized Sino - US trade agreement, basis changes, and potential import quota issuance [14][15]. - The egg market has limited capacity clearance, and the spot price is in the bottom - building stage. It is recommended to wait for a rebound to short [17][18]. - The pig market has a seasonal supply reduction, and the futures market has limited downside space in the short term, but there are concerns about supply postponement and hedging pressure in the medium term [20][21]. Summary by Commodity Soybean/Miscellaneous Meals Market Situation - On Wednesday, US soybeans rebounded and closed higher. North American weather and potential trade - war impacts on exports continued to put pressure on US soybeans, but low valuation, good old - crop sales, and bio - diesel policies supported demand. Domestic soybean meal futures fluctuated, with concerns about future purchases and current supply pressure. Spot prices dropped slightly, and oil - mill sales were weak but pick - up was good. The estimated domestic soybean crushing volume is 238.03 million tons this week [3]. - US soybean growing areas are expected to have favorable rainfall in the next two weeks. Brazilian soybean premiums have been rising slightly, and the unresolved Sino - US soybean tariffs support local premiums, offsetting the decline in US soybeans. Overall, soybean import costs are stable for now [3]. Trading Strategy - The import cost of foreign soybeans is oscillating. The domestic soybean meal market has multiple factors at play. It is recommended to buy at low levels within the cost range and pay attention to crushing margins and supply pressure at high levels, while waiting for progress on Sino - US tariffs and new supply - side drivers [5]. Important Information - No additional important information provided other than the above - mentioned market situation details. Oils Market Situation - On Wednesday, domestic palm oil prices fluctuated, affected by weakening export data. Rapeseed oil was relatively weak, pressured by Sino - Australian diplomatic contacts and a decline in foreign rapeseed prices. The EPA policy has lifted the annual oil price center, but there are still bearish factors due to increased palm oil production in Southeast Asia. Domestic spot basis is stable at a low level [7]. Trading Strategy - The US bio - diesel policy draft supports the oil price center. If demand countries maintain normal imports and palm oil production is at a neutral level from July to September, inventory may remain stable, with a potential rise in the fourth quarter due to Indonesia's B50 policy. However, due to high valuation and factors like annual production increases, high palm oil production, and the undetermined RVO rules, the market is expected to fluctuate [9]. Important Information - Malaysian palm oil export data shows an expected increase of 5.31% - 12% in the first 10 days of June and a decline of 5.29% - 6.16% in the first 15 days. In July 2025, from the 1st - 10th, palm oil production increased by 35.28%, and in the first 15 days, it increased by 17.06% [6]. - In June, India's palm oil imports increased by 60% to 955,683 tons, soybean oil imports decreased by 9.8% to 359,504 tons, and sunflower oil imports increased by 17.8% to 216,141 tons. Total vegetable oil imports in June were 1,549,825 tons, a 30.6% increase from May [6]. - China and Australia are close to reaching a purchase agreement for 150,000 - 200,000 tons of rapeseed [6]. Sugar Market Situation - On Wednesday, Zhengzhou sugar futures fluctuated weakly. The September contract closed at 5,808 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton or 0.1% from the previous day. Spot prices in different regions showed slight adjustments, with a narrowing of the basis between Guangxi spot and the main contract [11]. Trading Strategy - China is currently in a good import - profit window, and the expected increase in imports in the second half of the year may lead to a downward trend in sugar prices, especially considering the relatively high valuation of the September contract [12]. Important Information - ICRA estimates that India's sugar production in the 2025/26 season will reach 34 million tons, an increase of 4.4 million tons from the current season, due to favorable monsoon rainfall for sugarcane growth [11]. Cotton Market Situation - On Wednesday, Zhengzhou cotton futures rose with increased positions. The September contract closed at 13,990 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan/ton or 1.01% from the previous day. The spot price of Xinjiang machine - picked cotton decreased slightly, and the basis widened. In June 2025, China's textile and clothing exports were 27.315 billion US dollars, a 0.13% year - on - year decrease and a 4.22% month - on - month increase [14]. Trading Strategy - Although the Sino - US trade agreement is not finalized, the cotton price has rebounded. The current basis is not conducive to downstream consumption, and the potential issuance of import quotas in July - August is a bearish factor. The short - term cotton price is expected to be volatile [15]. Important Information - From January to June 2025, China's cumulative textile and clothing exports were 143.978 billion US dollars, a 0.76% year - on - year increase [14]. Eggs Market Situation - Yesterday, national egg prices were stable or rising. The average price in the main production areas increased by 0.01 yuan to 2.76 yuan/jin. Supply was stable, and downstream purchasing intention increased, with faster sales. Today's prices may be stable in some areas and rise slightly in others [17]. Trading Strategy - Capacity clearance in the egg market is limited, and the spot price is in the bottom - building stage. Due to high futures premiums and large positions, it is recommended to wait for a rebound to short [18]. Important Information - No additional important information provided other than the above - mentioned market situation details. Pigs Market Situation - Yesterday, domestic pig prices generally declined. The average price in Henan dropped 0.06 yuan to 14.55 yuan/kg, and in Sichuan, it dropped 0.1 yuan to 13.71 yuan/kg. Farmers' enthusiasm for selling was high, but market digestion was weak, and prices may continue to decline today [20]. Trading Strategy - Since late June, spot pig prices have rebounded, with reduced slaughter volume and lower weights, indicating a seasonal supply reduction. The futures market has limited downside space in the short term, but there are concerns about supply postponement and hedging pressure in the medium term [21]. Important Information - No additional important information provided other than the above - mentioned market situation details.

Report Overview - Industry: Oil and fat [1] - Date: June 12, 2025 [2] Core Views - Palm oil led the decline in the oil and fat sector. The main contract P2509 decreased with increasing positions, and the market bearish sentiment was strong. The price may further decline, and attention should be paid to the support around 7800. The latest MPOB data showed that Malaysia's palm oil inventory in May rose to the highest level in 8 months. Although the strong exports offset part of the growth in production and imports, the market expected the palm oil inventory to rise above 2 million tons, so the report was slightly positive for palm oil. The export data in the first 10 days in Malaysia were good, which supported the market, but the future increase in production and inventory would bring pressure, and the medium - and long - term price center would move down [8]. - For rapeseed oil, although China and Canada restarted negotiations, there were few rapeseed purchases after June - July. The domestic spot and basis were strong, and the domestic crushing profit deteriorated. The support at the 9000 level was strong in the short term. Later, focus on the results of China - Canada negotiations and the growing weather of new - season rapeseed in Canada [8]. - The abundant soybean supply in Brazil continued to pressure the market. Pay attention to the recent soybean import and crushing situation. The improvement of the supply situation might bring pressure to soybean oils. As the factory's soybean oil inventory continued to increase, the spot basis quotation was still under pressure, which would drag down the market, and it was expected to decline in shock. One could continuously short out - of - the - money call options. In the short term, the overall supply of oils and fats was sufficient, lacking upward drivers [8]. Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: Dongguan rapeseed oil traders' quotes: Dongguan triple - pressed rapeseed oil 09 + 60 (June), first - pressed rapeseed oil 09 + 240 (June). The basis price of soybean oil in the East China market: first - grade soybean oil, spot: Y2509+200; August - September: Y2509+230; October - January: Y2601+280. The price of 24 - degree palm oil at East China ports was P09 + 440 yuan/ton (limited to road transport), P09 + 380 yuan/ton for June shipment, and P09 + 400 yuan/ton for July shipment. The price of 24 - degree palm oil at Dongguan factories was 09+320 [7]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Short out - of - the - money call options for soybean oils [8]. 2. Industry News - Independent inspection agency AmSpec data showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports from June 1 - 10 were 327,355 tons, an increase of 8.1% compared to May 1 - 10 [10]. - Shipping survey agency ITS data showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports from June 1 - 10 were 371,600 tons, an increase of 26.4% compared to May 1 - 10. Exports to China were 13,800 tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons compared to the previous week [10]. - Shipping survey agency SGS data showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports from June 1 - 10 were 285,578 tons, an increase of 32.7% compared to May 1 - 10. Exports to China were 10,800 tons, a decrease of 2,500 tons compared to the same period last month [15]. - As of June 10, the inventory of imported soybeans at major ports was about 6 million tons, compared with 7.5 million tons in the same period last year and a five - year average of 7 million tons. The cumulative arrival in this month was 3.5 million tons. According to data from China Grain and Oil Business Network, the arrival of imported soybeans in June 2025 was 10.5 million tons, an increase of 400,000 tons compared to the previous month's forecast of 10.1 million tons, a month - on - month change of 4.36%, and an increase of 600,000 tons compared to the same period last year, a year - on - year change of 5.70% [15]. 3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple charts showing price, basis, spread, and exchange rate data of various oils and fats, including East China's third - grade rapeseed oil spot price, fourth - grade soybean oil spot price, South China's 24 - degree palm oil spot price, palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil basis changes, P1 - 5, P5 - 9, P9 - 1 spreads, and the exchange rates of US dollar against Malaysian ringgit and Chinese yuan [13][14][16]