Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the oil and fat industry is neutral [4] Core View of the Report - The recovery of palm oil production in Malaysia, the increase in the expected rapeseed production in Canada, and favorable weather in the US soybean - producing areas have led to a prominent oversupply of oils and fats, causing prices to fluctuate under pressure [3] Summary by Related Contents Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: On the previous trading day, the closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract was 8994.00 yuan/ton, a change of +68 yuan or +0.76% compared to the previous day; the soybean oil 2509 contract closed at 8074.00 yuan/ton, a change of -2.00 yuan or -0.02%; the rapeseed oil 2509 contract closed at 9456.00 yuan/ton, a change of -21.00 yuan or -0.22% [1] - Spot: In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 9100.00 yuan/ton, a change of +140.00 yuan or +1.56%, with a spot basis of P09 + 106.00, a change of +72.00 yuan; in the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8220.00 yuan/ton, a change of +10.00 yuan/ton or +0.12%, with a spot basis of Y09 + 146.00, a change of +12.00 yuan; in the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9560.00 yuan/ton, a change of -20.00 yuan or -0.21%, with a spot basis of OI09 + 104.00, a change of +1.00 yuan [1] Market Information Summary - Canada: The July supply - demand report of the Canadian Agriculture and Agri - Food Department (AAFC) adjusted key data. The 2024/25 rapeseed production forecast was significantly increased to about 19.19 million tons from the previous 17.85 million tons, and the old - crop rapeseed export forecast was raised to 9.5 million tons. The 2025/26 rapeseed production forecast was lowered by 200,000 tons to 17.8 million tons, with a yield of 2.08 tons per hectare, lower than the previous year's 2.17 tons per hectare [2] - Malaysia: According to the Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA), the estimated palm oil production in Malaysia from July 1 - 20 increased by 11.24% compared to the same period last month, with an 18.95% increase in the Malay Peninsula, a 0.14% decrease in Sabah, a 0.41% increase in Sarawak, and a 0.01% increase in East Malaysia [2] - Indonesia: In May, due to a surge in exports, Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased by 4.27% month - on - month to 2.9 million tons. The export volume of palm oil and refined products reached 2.66 million tons, a nearly 50% increase from April and a 35.64% year - on - year increase, mainly driven by the demand from India and China. The crude palm oil production in May was 4.17 million tons, lower than April's 4.48 million tons but a 7.2% increase compared to the same period last year [2]

Report Overview - Report Date: July 17, 2025 - Report Source: Wukuang Futures Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The soybean market is affected by multiple factors such as North American weather, trade wars, and bio - diesel policies, and is expected to maintain a range - bound trend. The domestic soybean meal market is multi - faceted, with suggestions to buy at low levels within the cost range and pay attention to supply pressure and tariff progress [3][5]. - The palm oil market is influenced by factors like export data and production, and the overall oil market is affected by the EPA policy and production increases. It is expected to fluctuate, with potential for a rise in the fourth quarter [6][9]. - The sugar market may see a downward trend in the future, considering the import profit window and the expected increase in imports [11][12]. - The cotton market is expected to be volatile in the short term, affected by factors such as the non - finalized Sino - US trade agreement, basis changes, and potential import quota issuance [14][15]. - The egg market has limited capacity clearance, and the spot price is in the bottom - building stage. It is recommended to wait for a rebound to short [17][18]. - The pig market has a seasonal supply reduction, and the futures market has limited downside space in the short term, but there are concerns about supply postponement and hedging pressure in the medium term [20][21]. Summary by Commodity Soybean/Miscellaneous Meals Market Situation - On Wednesday, US soybeans rebounded and closed higher. North American weather and potential trade - war impacts on exports continued to put pressure on US soybeans, but low valuation, good old - crop sales, and bio - diesel policies supported demand. Domestic soybean meal futures fluctuated, with concerns about future purchases and current supply pressure. Spot prices dropped slightly, and oil - mill sales were weak but pick - up was good. The estimated domestic soybean crushing volume is 238.03 million tons this week [3]. - US soybean growing areas are expected to have favorable rainfall in the next two weeks. Brazilian soybean premiums have been rising slightly, and the unresolved Sino - US soybean tariffs support local premiums, offsetting the decline in US soybeans. Overall, soybean import costs are stable for now [3]. Trading Strategy - The import cost of foreign soybeans is oscillating. The domestic soybean meal market has multiple factors at play. It is recommended to buy at low levels within the cost range and pay attention to crushing margins and supply pressure at high levels, while waiting for progress on Sino - US tariffs and new supply - side drivers [5]. Important Information - No additional important information provided other than the above - mentioned market situation details. Oils Market Situation - On Wednesday, domestic palm oil prices fluctuated, affected by weakening export data. Rapeseed oil was relatively weak, pressured by Sino - Australian diplomatic contacts and a decline in foreign rapeseed prices. The EPA policy has lifted the annual oil price center, but there are still bearish factors due to increased palm oil production in Southeast Asia. Domestic spot basis is stable at a low level [7]. Trading Strategy - The US bio - diesel policy draft supports the oil price center. If demand countries maintain normal imports and palm oil production is at a neutral level from July to September, inventory may remain stable, with a potential rise in the fourth quarter due to Indonesia's B50 policy. However, due to high valuation and factors like annual production increases, high palm oil production, and the undetermined RVO rules, the market is expected to fluctuate [9]. Important Information - Malaysian palm oil export data shows an expected increase of 5.31% - 12% in the first 10 days of June and a decline of 5.29% - 6.16% in the first 15 days. In July 2025, from the 1st - 10th, palm oil production increased by 35.28%, and in the first 15 days, it increased by 17.06% [6]. - In June, India's palm oil imports increased by 60% to 955,683 tons, soybean oil imports decreased by 9.8% to 359,504 tons, and sunflower oil imports increased by 17.8% to 216,141 tons. Total vegetable oil imports in June were 1,549,825 tons, a 30.6% increase from May [6]. - China and Australia are close to reaching a purchase agreement for 150,000 - 200,000 tons of rapeseed [6]. Sugar Market Situation - On Wednesday, Zhengzhou sugar futures fluctuated weakly. The September contract closed at 5,808 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton or 0.1% from the previous day. Spot prices in different regions showed slight adjustments, with a narrowing of the basis between Guangxi spot and the main contract [11]. Trading Strategy - China is currently in a good import - profit window, and the expected increase in imports in the second half of the year may lead to a downward trend in sugar prices, especially considering the relatively high valuation of the September contract [12]. Important Information - ICRA estimates that India's sugar production in the 2025/26 season will reach 34 million tons, an increase of 4.4 million tons from the current season, due to favorable monsoon rainfall for sugarcane growth [11]. Cotton Market Situation - On Wednesday, Zhengzhou cotton futures rose with increased positions. The September contract closed at 13,990 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan/ton or 1.01% from the previous day. The spot price of Xinjiang machine - picked cotton decreased slightly, and the basis widened. In June 2025, China's textile and clothing exports were 27.315 billion US dollars, a 0.13% year - on - year decrease and a 4.22% month - on - month increase [14]. Trading Strategy - Although the Sino - US trade agreement is not finalized, the cotton price has rebounded. The current basis is not conducive to downstream consumption, and the potential issuance of import quotas in July - August is a bearish factor. The short - term cotton price is expected to be volatile [15]. Important Information - From January to June 2025, China's cumulative textile and clothing exports were 143.978 billion US dollars, a 0.76% year - on - year increase [14]. Eggs Market Situation - Yesterday, national egg prices were stable or rising. The average price in the main production areas increased by 0.01 yuan to 2.76 yuan/jin. Supply was stable, and downstream purchasing intention increased, with faster sales. Today's prices may be stable in some areas and rise slightly in others [17]. Trading Strategy - Capacity clearance in the egg market is limited, and the spot price is in the bottom - building stage. Due to high futures premiums and large positions, it is recommended to wait for a rebound to short [18]. Important Information - No additional important information provided other than the above - mentioned market situation details. Pigs Market Situation - Yesterday, domestic pig prices generally declined. The average price in Henan dropped 0.06 yuan to 14.55 yuan/kg, and in Sichuan, it dropped 0.1 yuan to 13.71 yuan/kg. Farmers' enthusiasm for selling was high, but market digestion was weak, and prices may continue to decline today [20]. Trading Strategy - Since late June, spot pig prices have rebounded, with reduced slaughter volume and lower weights, indicating a seasonal supply reduction. The futures market has limited downside space in the short term, but there are concerns about supply postponement and hedging pressure in the medium term [21]. Important Information - No additional important information provided other than the above - mentioned market situation details.

Report Overview - Industry: Oil and fat [1] - Date: June 12, 2025 [2] Core Views - Palm oil led the decline in the oil and fat sector. The main contract P2509 decreased with increasing positions, and the market bearish sentiment was strong. The price may further decline, and attention should be paid to the support around 7800. The latest MPOB data showed that Malaysia's palm oil inventory in May rose to the highest level in 8 months. Although the strong exports offset part of the growth in production and imports, the market expected the palm oil inventory to rise above 2 million tons, so the report was slightly positive for palm oil. The export data in the first 10 days in Malaysia were good, which supported the market, but the future increase in production and inventory would bring pressure, and the medium - and long - term price center would move down [8]. - For rapeseed oil, although China and Canada restarted negotiations, there were few rapeseed purchases after June - July. The domestic spot and basis were strong, and the domestic crushing profit deteriorated. The support at the 9000 level was strong in the short term. Later, focus on the results of China - Canada negotiations and the growing weather of new - season rapeseed in Canada [8]. - The abundant soybean supply in Brazil continued to pressure the market. Pay attention to the recent soybean import and crushing situation. The improvement of the supply situation might bring pressure to soybean oils. As the factory's soybean oil inventory continued to increase, the spot basis quotation was still under pressure, which would drag down the market, and it was expected to decline in shock. One could continuously short out - of - the - money call options. In the short term, the overall supply of oils and fats was sufficient, lacking upward drivers [8]. Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: Dongguan rapeseed oil traders' quotes: Dongguan triple - pressed rapeseed oil 09 + 60 (June), first - pressed rapeseed oil 09 + 240 (June). The basis price of soybean oil in the East China market: first - grade soybean oil, spot: Y2509+200; August - September: Y2509+230; October - January: Y2601+280. The price of 24 - degree palm oil at East China ports was P09 + 440 yuan/ton (limited to road transport), P09 + 380 yuan/ton for June shipment, and P09 + 400 yuan/ton for July shipment. The price of 24 - degree palm oil at Dongguan factories was 09+320 [7]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Short out - of - the - money call options for soybean oils [8]. 2. Industry News - Independent inspection agency AmSpec data showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports from June 1 - 10 were 327,355 tons, an increase of 8.1% compared to May 1 - 10 [10]. - Shipping survey agency ITS data showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports from June 1 - 10 were 371,600 tons, an increase of 26.4% compared to May 1 - 10. Exports to China were 13,800 tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons compared to the previous week [10]. - Shipping survey agency SGS data showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports from June 1 - 10 were 285,578 tons, an increase of 32.7% compared to May 1 - 10. Exports to China were 10,800 tons, a decrease of 2,500 tons compared to the same period last month [15]. - As of June 10, the inventory of imported soybeans at major ports was about 6 million tons, compared with 7.5 million tons in the same period last year and a five - year average of 7 million tons. The cumulative arrival in this month was 3.5 million tons. According to data from China Grain and Oil Business Network, the arrival of imported soybeans in June 2025 was 10.5 million tons, an increase of 400,000 tons compared to the previous month's forecast of 10.1 million tons, a month - on - month change of 4.36%, and an increase of 600,000 tons compared to the same period last year, a year - on - year change of 5.70% [15]. 3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple charts showing price, basis, spread, and exchange rate data of various oils and fats, including East China's third - grade rapeseed oil spot price, fourth - grade soybean oil spot price, South China's 24 - degree palm oil spot price, palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil basis changes, P1 - 5, P5 - 9, P9 - 1 spreads, and the exchange rates of US dollar against Malaysian ringgit and Chinese yuan [13][14][16]