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棕榈油价格反弹空间有限
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2025-09-03 23:33
Group 1: U.S. Regulatory Impact - The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has approved exemptions for certain small refineries from biofuel regulations, raising concerns about declining demand for biofuels, leading to a drop in palm oil prices [1] Group 2: Malaysian Palm Oil Supply and Demand - The Malaysian Palm Oil Board reported a 7.02% month-on-month increase in palm oil production for July, reaching 1.81 million tons, with a cumulative production of 10.77 million tons from January to July, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.54% [2] - July exports were 1.31 million tons, a 3.82% increase from the previous month, exceeding market expectations [2] - As of the end of July, palm oil inventory stood at 2.11 million tons, lower than the forecasted range of 2.2 to 2.3 million tons [2] Group 3: Indonesian Palm Oil Production and Policy - The Indonesian Palm Oil Association reported a significant 15.99% month-on-month increase in palm oil production for June, totaling 5.289 million tons, with a cumulative production of 27.89 million tons for the first half of the year [3] - June exports increased by 35.56% to 3.606 million tons, aided by a reduction in export tariffs [3] - The Indonesian government plans to provide additional subsidies for the B40 biodiesel policy, totaling 51 trillion Indonesian Rupiah, to ensure its implementation [3] Group 4: Indian Palm Oil Demand Trends - India's palm oil imports decreased to 856,000 tons in July from 956,000 tons in June, but are expected to rise to 993,000 tons in August, the highest level in 13 months, due to anticipated increases in export tariffs from Indonesia [4] - The price gap between crude soybean oil and crude palm oil in Indian ports has widened to $40 per ton, indicating stronger pricing for South American soybean oil despite recent declines in U.S. soybean oil prices [4] - The upcoming Diwali festival in mid-October is expected to peak palm oil imports in September, followed by a decline in October [4]