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油脂大跌、鸡蛋反抽
Tian Fu Qi Huo· 2025-11-20 11:58
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The agricultural product sector shows mixed trends. Palm oil and soybean oil have declined significantly, while eggs have rebounded. Other products such as peanuts, sugar, and hogs continue to fall, apples are strong, dates fluctuate narrowly at low levels, and cotton has limited rebounds and fluctuates at low levels [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Agricultural Product Sector Overview - Palm oil and soybean oil have declined sharply due to the possible delay of the US government's plan to restrict the import of raw materials for bio - fuel production, which pushed down CBOT soybean oil and led to the decline of palm oil. The trend of oils has weakened [1]. - Eggs have rebounded at low levels, but the weak supply - demand pattern has not been reversed, so the rebound space may be limited [1]. - Soybean meal has declined due to sufficient imported soybeans, high crushing volume, and rising inventory, and the weakness may continue [1]. 3.2 Variety Strategy Tracking 3.2.1 Palm Oil - The main 2601 contracts of Dalian palm oil and soybean oil have fallen sharply, affected by the decline of US soybean oil and crude oil. The possible delay of the US government's plan to restrict bio - fuel raw material imports weakened the previous positive proposal of the US Environmental Protection Agency, and the increase in palm oil production and decline in exports in Malaysia in the first half of November also pressured the price [2]. - The main 2601 contract of palm oil failed to break through, fell back to the previous consolidation range, and below the moving - average system. The strategy is to close long positions and conduct short - term trading [2]. 3.2.2 Eggs - The main 2601 contract of eggs has rebounded significantly at low levels, boosted by technical buying. The egg - laying hen inventory is still high, the elimination of old hens continues but the speed slows down, and the demand lacks festival stimulation [3]. - The main 2601 contract of eggs has rebounded from the low level, recovered the decline since the beginning of this week, and stood above the 5 - day moving average. The strategy is to close short positions and conduct short - term trading [3]. 3.2.3 Peanuts - The main 2601 contract of peanuts continued to fall after the sharp decline the previous day. The effective supply in the producing areas has not been fully released, and the demand is sluggish [6]. - The main 2601 contract of peanuts continues the downward trend, and the strategy is to short with a light position [6]. 3.2.4 Sugar - The main 2601 contract of Zhengzhou sugar continued to fall to a new low. Globally, the sugar production in Brazil is strong, and the production in the Northern Hemisphere is also good. In China, the import volume in October was 750,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 39%, and the cumulative import volume from January to October was 3.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14%. The seasonal supply increase also pressured the price [7][9]. - The main 2601 contract of Zhengzhou sugar continues to fall to a new low, and the technical situation is weak. The strategy is to continue shorting with a light position [9]. 3.2.5 Hogs - The main 2601 contract of hogs continued to decline after breaking through the support level. The supply pressure is large as the inventory of breeding sows is still high, and the large - scale pig enterprises plan to have a high slaughter volume in November. The demand in the traditional peak season is insufficient [10]. - The main 2601 contract of hogs continues the downward trend, hitting a new low of 11,355. The strategy is to continue holding short positions with a light position [10]. 3.2.6 Soybean Meal - The main 2601 contract of soybean meal broke below the 20 - day moving average. The imported soybeans are sufficient, the oil mills have high crushing and operating rates, and the soybean meal inventory is close to one million tons. The downstream feed enterprises have general procurement [12]. - The main 2601 contract of soybean meal has entered a downward trend, and the strategy is to short with a light position [12]. 3.2.7 Apples - The main 2601 contract of apples is strong. The apple storage work in Shandong and Shaanxi has basically ended, and the national cold - storage inventory is 7.7316 million tons as of November 19, still at a relatively low level in recent years. The demand may improve at the end of the year [15]. - The main 2601 contract of apples has risen at a high level and re - stood above the moving - average system. The strategy is to hold long positions [15]. 3.2.8 Dates - The main 2601 contract of dates fluctuates narrowly at low levels. The Xinjiang producing area adheres to the principle of high - quality and high - price, but most enterprises are reluctant to purchase on a large scale. The old - date inventory is slowly digested, and the new - date listing and high old - date inventory limit the rebound space [16]. - The main 2601 contract of dates has limited rebounds. The strategy is to conduct short - term short - biased trading and pay attention to whether it can break through the resistance of the 10 - day moving average [18]. 3.2.9 Cotton - The main 2601 contract of cotton has limited rebounds and fluctuates at low levels. The cotton picking in Xinjiang is nearly finished, the new - cotton processing volume has increased significantly year - on - year, and the commercial inventory has been growing. The textile industry is in the off - season, and the new orders are limited [19]. - The main 2601 contract of cotton has limited rebounds and fluctuates at low levels. The strategy is to conduct short - term trading and pay attention to whether it can overcome the resistance of the medium - term moving average [19].