生物燃料规则
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养殖油脂产业链日报策略报告-20250924
Fang Zheng Zhong Qi Qi Huo· 2025-09-24 05:22
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View - **Soybean Oil**: The intraday soybean oil futures price dropped significantly due to Argentina's decision to cancel export taxes on soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil before October 31. With sufficient domestic supply and the fermentation of negative news, the price has a technical breakdown. It is expected to fluctuate widely in the near term. The Y2601 contract is recommended for temporary observation, with support at 7950 - 8000 yuan/ton and resistance at 8330 - 8350 yuan/ton [3]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: China's temporary anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed imports may reduce Canadian rapeseed purchases. Russian/Dubai rapeseed oil and Australian rapeseed imports can partially compensate. If Canadian rapeseed imports are significantly reduced, domestic rapeseed oil will continue the de - stocking process. It is recommended to go long with a light position, with support at 9655 - 9698 and resistance at 10300 - 10333 [3]. - **Palm Oil**: Argentina's temporary cancellation of export taxes on soybeans and their derivatives brings cost - side negatives. Combined with phased sales pressure, the oil and oilseed sector has a need for a bearish adjustment. Although Malaysian palm oil production in September 1 - 20 decreased, exports increased, and there is no obvious inventory accumulation pressure. Indonesia may increase the mandatory palm oil blending ratio in biodiesel. It is expected to have a bearish adjustment, with support at 8756 - 8800 and resistance at 9570 - 9590 [4]. - **Soybean Meal and Soybean No. 2**: Due to Argentina's cancellation of export taxes and potential delays in biofuel rules, with high domestic inventories and negative news, the prices are expected to be weak in the near term. It is recommended to exit long positions in the main contracts [5]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: With the expected increase in Canadian rapeseed production, the price of rapeseed at the origin is under pressure. If Canadian rapeseed imports are significantly reduced, domestic rapeseed meal may have a de - stocking expectation. It is expected to have a bearish adjustment, with support at 2300 - 2365 and resistance at 2552 - 2572 [6]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The external market has both positive and negative factors, and the domestic market is in a game between low - channel inventory procurement enthusiasm and seasonal pressure. The 11 - contract is expected to continue to find the bottom. Options strategies such as selling wide - straddle combinations or out - of - the - money call options are recommended [7]. - **Soybean No. 1**: With the new domestic soybeans gradually coming onto the market and Argentina's export tax cancellation, the price is under pressure. It is recommended to hold short positions, with resistance at 3950 - 4000 yuan/ton and support at 3800 - 3830 yuan/ton [8]. - **Peanut**: With an expected increase in production and a decrease in planting costs, there is seasonal supply pressure. However, the futures price has partially reflected the increase in production, and Mid - Autumn Festival stocking has boosted demand. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with support at 7500 - 7510 and resistance at 8020 - 8162 [9]. - **Live Pig**: The futures price is in a process of finding the bottom. It is recommended to wait for capacity reduction to be confirmed and then consider buying at low prices. Cautious investors can hold long - short spreads, and it is advisable to wait and see for single - side trading [10]. - **Egg**: The futures price has fallen below historical lows. It is not recommended to chase short positions. Cautious investors can wait and see, while aggressive investors can consider buying the 2511 contract at low prices, with a reference range of 3000 - 3200 points [10]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendation 1. Market Judgment - Various varieties in the feed, livestock, and oil sectors are analyzed, including their market logic (supply - demand), support and resistance levels, market trends, and reference strategies. For example, the soybean No. 1 11 - contract is expected to fluctuate bearishly, and it is recommended to hold short positions [13]. 2. Commodity Arbitrage - Cross - period and cross - variety arbitrage strategies for different sectors are provided, including reference strategies and target levels. For example, for the 01 - contract soybean oil - palm oil spread, a bearish operation is recommended [15]. 3. Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies - Spot prices, price changes, and basis changes of different varieties in each sector are presented [16]. Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table 1. Oil and Oilseed - **Daily Data**: Import costs of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and shipping periods are provided, including arrival premiums, CBOT or ICE futures prices, CNF prices, and arrival - duty - paid prices [17]. - **Weekly Data**: Inventory and operating rates of various oil and oilseed products are given, such as soybean port inventory, soybean meal factory inventory, etc. [19]. 2. Feed - **Daily Data**: Import costs of corn from Argentina and Brazil in different months are presented [19]. - **Weekly Data**: Consumption, inventory, operating rates, and other data of corn and corn starch in deep - processing enterprises are provided [20]. 3. Livestock - **Daily Data**: Spot prices, price changes, and other data of live pigs and eggs in different regions are given [21][22]. - **Weekly Data**: Key weekly data of live pigs and eggs, including prices, costs, profits, inventory, and sales, are provided [23][25]. Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts - **Livestock (Live Pigs and Eggs)**: Charts show the closing prices of live pig and egg futures contracts, spot prices, and related prices such as piglet prices and chicken fry prices [28][29]. - **Oil and Oilseed**: - **Palm Oil**: Charts display Malaysian palm oil production, exports, inventory, import profits, and domestic inventory and trading volume [37][38]. - **Soybean Oil**: Charts show US soybean crushing volume, soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean oil factory operating rates, and inventory [45][46]. - **Peanut**: Charts present peanut arrival and shipment volumes, processing profits, and inventory [54][57]. - **Feed**: - **Corn**: Charts show corn futures and spot prices, inventory, import volume, and processing profits [60][64]. - **Corn Starch**: Charts display corn starch futures and spot prices, operating rates, and inventory [67][68]. - **Rapeseed**: Charts show rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil spot prices, inventory, and basis [70][74]. - **Soybean Meal**: Charts present US soybean growth indicators, domestic inventory, basis, and spreads [77][89]. Fourth Part: Feed, Livestock, and Oil Options Situation - Charts show the historical volatility of various products such as rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, and soybean oil, as well as the trading volume, open interest, and put - call ratio of corn options [92][93]. Fifth Part: Feed, Livestock, and Oil Warehouse Receipt Situation - Charts display the warehouse receipt situations of various products such as rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, and soybean oil, as well as the futures warehouse receipt volume and open interest of corn, live pigs, and eggs [95][96].