Report Information - Report Title: Zhengxin Futures Weekly Report on Live Pigs (2025-8-18) [2] - Research Group: Zhengxin Futures Research Institute - Agricultural Products Research Group [2] Investment Rating - Supply: Bullish [3] - Demand: Neutral [3] - Profit: Neutral [3] - Price and Volume: Neutral [3] - Strategy: Bullish [3] Core Viewpoints - The new regulation on road transport of animals will reduce the risk of cross - regional disease transmission, but may increase the price difference between production and sales areas in the short term, regulate speculative secondary fattening, and promote the stable operation of the pig market [3] - As the impact of high - temperature weather weakens and school banquets and the start of the school semester approach, the demand for catering will pick up, which may boost pig prices [3] - With the synergy of policy and enterprise actions, the market path in the second half of the year may be similar to that in 2023, with pig prices rising moderately and weights decreasing significantly [3] - Operationally, pay attention to the reverse spread opportunity of live pigs from November to January [3] Summary by Directory Price and Volume Analysis - The spot price of live pigs in Henan and its seasonal chart are analyzed, with data from Wind [4][5][6] - The basis of live pig futures contracts has narrow - range fluctuations, and the near - month contracts are at par. The data is from Zhengxin Futures Research Institute [7][8][9] - The price difference between live pig futures contracts has narrow - range fluctuations and is at a normal level in the same period of history, with data from Zhengxin Futures Research Institute [10][11][12] - The institutional net positions of the November and January contracts of live pig futures are analyzed, showing that the net short positions of the November contract increase and those of the January contract decrease. The data is from Wind [13][14][15] Supply Analysis - The inventory of breeding sows is analyzed, with data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs [16][17][18] - The supply of piglets in Henan, including the price ratio and the number of newborn piglets, is analyzed, with data from WIND [19][20][21] - The average weight and structure of commercial pig slaughter of sample breeding enterprises are analyzed [22][23] - The daily and seasonal charts of the price difference between standard and fat pigs are analyzed [24][25] Demand Analysis - The daily operating rate and seasonal profit chart of key pig slaughtering enterprises are analyzed [26][28] - The frozen product inventory, including the capacity utilization rate and its seasonal chart, as well as the fresh - sales rate, are analyzed, with data from Mysteel [29][31][32] - The price ratio between pork and eggs, and between pork and vegetables are analyzed [33] Profit Analysis - The breeding profit, including self - breeding and self - fattening and purchasing piglets for fattening, and its seasonal chart are analyzed, with data from Mysteel [35][36][37] - The pig - grain price ratio in large and medium - sized cities in China and its seasonal chart are analyzed [38][40]