1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The current pig market is in a critical stage of deep supply - demand game, with contradictions mainly concentrated in the supply side. In the short term, there is a mismatch between a definite and concentrated supply peak and an uncertain, dispersed, and weak demand release. In the long - term, the root problem is over - capacity, and the process of supply - demand re - balance in the pig industry is significantly prolonged. The cycle reversal of the pig market has not arrived, and it is necessary to wait for a greater reduction in the number of fertile sows [9][10] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Change in the Logic of Pig Price Uptrend - After mid - January, the logic supporting the upward movement of pig prices changed. The pig slaughter volume increased significantly, especially as second - fattening farmers were more willing to cash in. The main 2603 contract of pig futures has fallen below 11,500 yuan/ton since mid - January. Market sentiment has turned from optimistic to cautious due to weak consumption expectations in March and underperforming economic data [6] 3.2 Continued Loose Supply Pattern - On January 19, economic data showed that the pig market's supply - loose pattern continued. The 59.38 million tons of pork production suppressed prices. The decline rate of fertile sows was slow and remained above the normal level. Due to increased production efficiency, the actual reduction in effective pig production capacity was much less than the decline in the number of sows, which is the main contradiction in the current pig market [7] 3.3 Intensified Supply - Demand Mismatch before Spring Festival - Slaughter enterprises are strongly willing to suppress purchase prices to reduce losses, which inhibits market demand. Traders and slaughter enterprises have low willingness to build frozen - product inventories, so all supply pressure is directly transmitted to the fresh - product market. The Spring Festival in 2026 is about 20 days later than usual, delaying and lengthening the pre - festival demand peak. Various types of consumption, such as southern pickling, northern killing of New - Year pigs, and supermarket and wholesale - market stocking, are all weaker than expected [8]

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货生猪周报 二育减量明显 猪价僵持 20251109 蒋琴 交易咨询号：Z0014038 从业资格号：F3027808 0769-22110802 审核：萧勇辉，从业资格号：F03091536,交易咨询号：Z0019917 1 周度观点及策略 2 期现市场 3 产能 4 供给端 5 需求端 6 成本及利润 u 展望：政策面虽持续释放积极信号，但实际产能去化不及预期，市场情绪转弱。本轮期现货共振下跌的行情并非单一因素主导，而 是产能长期过剩、政策调控落地滞后与消费疲软的三重压力叠加所致，目前行业正面临短期价格承压与长期产能出清的关键博弈期。 当前生猪产能依旧过剩，下游需求端疲软，二育短期的入场行为对猪价仅能起到"缓冲作用" ，无法扭转全国生猪市场供增需弱的 格局，养殖端整体进入全面亏损状态，市场情绪偏弱，短期生猪现货行情或延续弱势震荡，期货盘面震荡下跌修复基差。中期来看， 年底天气转冷后，终端对大体重猪的需求会有所增加，同时，南方地区腌腊、灌肠等传统消费需求逐步启动，或对行情形成阶段性 提振。但近年来传统意义上的生猪消费旺季均未能兑现，今年旺季不旺或已 ...