Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in pig prices and natural rubber prices, highlighting the factors influencing these markets and the implications for supply and demand dynamics [3][4][5]. Group 1: Pig Prices - As of July 25, the average price of external three yuan pigs in China was 14.15 yuan/kg, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 0.84%. The average price of 15 kg piglets was 31.89 yuan/kg, down 0.22% week-on-week [3]. - The average weight of market pigs for the week was 128.48 kg, which is a decrease of 0.35 kg week-on-week. The national frozen product inventory rate increased to 14.46%, up 0.1 percentage points [3]. - In June, the average price of market pigs fell to 14.57 yuan/kg, a decrease of 2.3% month-on-month and 20.6% year-on-year. The average price of piglets was 37.25 yuan/kg, down 4.8% month-on-month and 14.5% year-on-year [4]. Group 2: Supply and Production - The number of breeding sows as of the end of June was 40.43 million, showing a slight quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year increase of 0.1% [4]. - In Q2 2025, the total number of pigs slaughtered was 171.43 million, a year-on-year increase of 1.2% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 12%. Pork production reached 14.18 million tons, up 1.4% year-on-year but down 11.5% quarter-on-quarter [4]. - The average profit per pig in June dropped to near the breakeven point, with large-scale farms reporting a profit of 7 yuan per pig, down from 49 yuan in May, while smallholders faced a loss of 6 yuan per pig [4]. Group 3: Natural Rubber Prices - As of July 25, domestic natural rubber futures prices reached 15,455 yuan/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 4.14%. Market sentiment remained high due to supply concerns following border conflicts between Thailand and Cambodia [5]. - The inventory of rubber in the Qingdao area was 626,900 tons, a slight decrease of 0.2 tons week-on-week, with general trade inventory at 532,800 tons and bonded zone inventory at 94,100 tons [5].

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - In Q1 2025, the supply of live pigs was higher than that in 2024 but lower than the same period in 2023. The increase in pork production due to higher slaughter weights compensated for the supply shortage in terms of headcount, resulting in a slightly higher pork supply than in Q1 2023. Weight remains an important variable driving the supply side of live pigs this year and should be closely monitored [3] Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Production Data**: In Q1 2025, the output of pork, beef, and poultry increased by 1.2%, 2.7%, and 5.1% respectively, while mutton output decreased by 5.1%. Milk output increased by 1.7%, and egg output decreased by 0.1%. The total output of pork, beef, mutton, and poultry was 25.4 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.0% [3] - **Inventory and Slaughter Data**: At the end of Q1 2025, the inventory of live pigs was 417.31 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 2.2%. In Q1 2025, the number of slaughtered live pigs was 194.76 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 0.1% [3] - **Output Calculation**: Based on the pork output of 15.83 million tons in Q1 2024, the pork output in Q1 2025 was estimated to be about 16.02 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.2% and an increase of 0.75% compared to Q1 2023 [3]