"如何解读 11 月生猪产能数据"专家电话会 20251207 摘要 2025 年 11 月全国能繁母猪存栏量环比下降 0.62%，同比上涨 0.82%，但较 6 月份高点减少 38 万头，主要受政策引导、市场预期及 生猪疾病影响，养殖户主动淘汰母猪以降低风险。 11 月生猪均价持续下跌，截至 12 月 5 日为 11.13 元/公斤，导致 95% 以上企业亏损，自繁自养模式下每头亏损约 100 多元，仔猪育肥模式下 每头亏损约 300 多元，主要因上半年仔猪补栏成本偏高。 11 月全国平均出栏体重为 124.66 公斤，环比上涨 0.09%，同比下降 0.83%。大型样本企业生猪出栏量环比下降 4.94%，二次育肥补栏目标 骤减 71%，影响市场供应。 11 月生猪市场供应充足，价格下降，因大企业出栏减少但二次育肥补栏 量也减少，南方地区气温较高备货意愿不强，且 12 月计划出栏量环比 增长 3.77%。 预计春节前生猪价格难突破 12 元/公斤，因养殖企业加快 12 月份出栏 节奏，供应充足。腊月中旬或因下游备货增加和养殖集团减少出栏，价 格有望小幅上涨。 Q&A 11 月份全国生猪产能和能繁母猪存栏量的 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [5] Core Insights - In September 2025, the total number of pigs slaughtered by listed companies reached 15.2934 million, representing a year-on-year increase of 27.11% but a month-on-month decrease of 5.92% [10][11] - The significant year-on-year growth in slaughter volume is attributed to the release of new production capacity in 2024, while the month-on-month decline is due to leading companies like Muyuan and others responding to policy calls by slaughtering heavier pigs earlier [10][11] - The average selling price of pigs in September 2025 decreased by 5.42% month-on-month and 30.18% year-on-year, with the current prices being the lowest for the peak season since 2022 [19][20] - The cumulative revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 for listed pig companies was 222.871 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.15% despite the decline in average selling prices [11][12] Summary by Sections Slaughter Volume - In September 2025, listed pig companies reported a slaughter volume of 15.2934 million pigs, with leading companies like Muyuan, Wens, and New Hope slaughtering 5.573 million, 3.3253 million, and 1.3942 million pigs respectively [10][11] - The cumulative slaughter volume for the first three quarters of 2025 was 139 million pigs, showing a year-on-year increase of 20.39% [10][11] Revenue and Pricing - The revenue for September 2025 was 21.647 billion, down 18.74% year-on-year and 10.77% month-on-month, primarily due to lower selling prices [11][12] - The average selling price for pigs in September was 13.26 yuan per kilogram, which is significantly lower than the previous year [19][20] Weight and Performance - The average weight of pigs slaughtered in September was 106.74 kg, showing a slight year-on-year increase of 0.44% but a month-on-month decrease of 0.39% [20] - Leading companies reported average weights of 126.30 kg, 113.51 kg, and 97.16 kg for Muyuan, Wens, and New Hope respectively [20]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in pig prices and natural rubber prices, highlighting the factors influencing these markets and the implications for supply and demand dynamics [3][4][5]. Group 1: Pig Prices - As of July 25, the average price of external three yuan pigs in China was 14.15 yuan/kg, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 0.84%. The average price of 15 kg piglets was 31.89 yuan/kg, down 0.22% week-on-week [3]. - The average weight of market pigs for the week was 128.48 kg, which is a decrease of 0.35 kg week-on-week. The national frozen product inventory rate increased to 14.46%, up 0.1 percentage points [3]. - In June, the average price of market pigs fell to 14.57 yuan/kg, a decrease of 2.3% month-on-month and 20.6% year-on-year. The average price of piglets was 37.25 yuan/kg, down 4.8% month-on-month and 14.5% year-on-year [4]. Group 2: Supply and Production - The number of breeding sows as of the end of June was 40.43 million, showing a slight quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year increase of 0.1% [4]. - In Q2 2025, the total number of pigs slaughtered was 171.43 million, a year-on-year increase of 1.2% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 12%. Pork production reached 14.18 million tons, up 1.4% year-on-year but down 11.5% quarter-on-quarter [4]. - The average profit per pig in June dropped to near the breakeven point, with large-scale farms reporting a profit of 7 yuan per pig, down from 49 yuan in May, while smallholders faced a loss of 6 yuan per pig [4]. Group 3: Natural Rubber Prices - As of July 25, domestic natural rubber futures prices reached 15,455 yuan/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 4.14%. Market sentiment remained high due to supply concerns following border conflicts between Thailand and Cambodia [5]. - The inventory of rubber in the Qingdao area was 626,900 tons, a slight decrease of 0.2 tons week-on-week, with general trade inventory at 532,800 tons and bonded zone inventory at 94,100 tons [5].

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in live pig futures prices is attributed to a tightening supply and positive market sentiment for the upcoming peak season in August and September, with prices rebounding over 5% from previous lows [1][4]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The market is experiencing a tightening supply due to factors such as reduced large pig availability and increased frozen product inventory, which supports pig prices [1]. - Analysts note that the sentiment among small-scale farmers is to hold onto pigs in anticipation of higher prices in late July to August, leading to a decrease in supply [1][2]. - The overall pig supply is expected to increase gradually throughout the year, but short-term supply may be limited due to factors like piglet diarrhea outbreaks [4][5]. Price Trends - The average price of piglets has dropped to 36.91 yuan per kilogram, a decrease of 1.8% week-on-week and 16.7% year-on-year, indicating a cautious market [2]. - The price of 15 kg piglets has fallen from 670 yuan per head in mid-April to 530 yuan currently, primarily due to high costs and low seasonal demand [3]. Profitability and Cost Factors - Current breeding profits are generally positive, although there is a structural divide where some farmers face losses due to high costs of purchased piglets [2][4]. - Rising costs of feed ingredients like corn and soybean meal may impact cash flow for farmers in the latter half of the year [2]. Future Outlook - The market is expected to see a significant increase in piglet supply in September and October, which may exert downward pressure on prices [4]. - The current price increase is seen as temporary, with expectations that the market will transition from inventory accumulation to depletion, potentially leading to price declines in the fourth quarter [4][5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current supply - demand fundamentals of the pig market have not improved substantially. Although the short - term price is supported by factors such as farmers' reduced sales and increased second - fattening, the overall supply is still loose due to weakened terminal consumption, group farms' weight reduction and increased supply, and active sales by social farms [7]. - The pig production capacity is sufficient. Although the number of breeding sows has declined slightly, it is still above the normal level, and the production efficiency has increased. If pork consumption does not grow significantly, the room for pig price increase before September 2025 may be limited [7]. - In the short term, the improvement of market sentiment supports the strengthening of the futures market. The resistance level of the main contract is around 14,000. For options, out - of - the - money call options can be sold [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Views and Strategies - **Fundamental Situation**: The national average pig slaughter price was 14.12 yuan/kg, a week - on - week increase of 1.07% and a year - on - year decrease of 23.63%. The supply - demand relationship remained loose. The number of breeding sows in April 2025 was 40.38 million, a year - on - year decrease of 1.3%. The production capacity was sufficient, and the pressure on pig slaughter in the later period was still large [7]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: The supply in the pig market is sufficient in the current and future periods, and the price is under downward pressure. The short - term market sentiment supports the strengthening of the futures market, and the resistance level of the main contract is 14,000. Out - of - the - money call options can be sold [8]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Pig Futures and Spot Prices**: The national average pig slaughter price was 14.12 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week increase of 0.15 yuan/kg and a week - on - week increase of 1.07%. The supply - demand fundamentals have not improved, and the market supply - demand remains loose [12]. - **Futures Spreads**: No specific analysis content provided, only pictures are shown. - **Pig Standard - Fat and Gross - White Price Differences**: The price of standard pigs was mainly supported by market sentiment, and the price of large pigs increased. The standard - fat price difference widened slightly compared with last week [29]. - **Prices of Piglets and Binary Sows**: The average price of 7 - kg weaned piglets was 445.71 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 4.98% and a year - on - year decrease of 33.00%. The price is expected to remain weak in the short term [33]. - **Price of Culled Sows**: The average price of culled sows was 10.50 yuan/kg, a week - on - week increase of 0.77% and a year - on - year decrease of 23.02%. The price is expected to be weakly adjusted next week [36]. 3.3. Production Capacity - **Inventory of Breeding Sows**: In April 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.38 million, a decrease of 400,000 compared with December 2024. In May, the inventory of breeding sows in large - scale farms and small and medium - sized farms increased slightly. It is expected that the inventory may not increase in June [40][44]. - **Elimination Volume of Breeding Sows**: In May, the elimination volume of breeding sows in large - scale farms and small and medium - sized farms decreased slightly. It is expected that the elimination volume may be stable and difficult to decrease in June [48]. - **Inventory Proportion of Breeding Sows**: No specific analysis content provided, only pictures are shown. 3.4. Supply Side - **Inventory of Commercial Pigs**: In May, the inventory of commercial pigs in large - scale farms and small and medium - sized farms increased. It is expected that the inventory may decrease in June [55]. - **Slaughter Volume of Commercial Pigs**: In May, the slaughter volume of commercial pigs in large - scale farms and small and medium - sized farms decreased. It is expected that the actual slaughter volume may increase in June [58]. - **Inventory Structure of Commercial Pigs**: In May 2025, the inventory proportion of 7 - 49 kg piglets decreased, the inventory of 140 - kg and above large pigs decreased, and the inventory of 90 - 140 kg pigs increased slightly [61]. - **Average Slaughter Weight of Commercial Pigs**: The national average slaughter weight of foreign - ternary pigs was 123.78 kg, a week - on - week decrease of 0.15%. It is expected that the slaughter weight may continue to decrease slowly next week [64]. 3.5. Demand Side - **Pig Slaughter Volume**: No specific analysis content provided, only pictures are shown. - **Cold Storage Rate of Slaughtering Enterprises**: Terminal consumption is weak, and the cold storage rate of frozen products is at a low level. The domestic frozen products are in the de - stocking stage, and the impact on pig prices is limited [73]. - **Operating Rate and Fresh Sales Rate of Slaughtering Enterprises**: The operating rate of slaughtering enterprises this week was 27.97%, a week - on - week increase of 0.75 percentage points. It is expected that the operating rate may decline in the future due to weak demand [76]. - **Substitute Prices**: No specific analysis content provided, only pictures are shown. 3.6. Cost and Profit - **Profit of Pig Breeding and Slaughtering**: The weekly average profit of self - breeding and self - raising mode was 61.11 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 9.4 yuan/head. The weekly average loss of the mode of purchasing piglets increased to 53.71 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 25.16 yuan/head [89]. - **Gross Profit of Slaughtering and Feed - to - Meat Ratio**: No specific analysis content provided, only pictures are shown. - **Pig - to - Grain Ratio**: The current pig - to - grain ratio is 5.86, with little change. It is expected to be stable with a slight decrease next week [96].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The overall live pig price in the country rebounded slightly today, but the market supply is still relatively abundant, and there is still downward pressure on prices in the short - term. The futures market showed a significant rebound today, but in the long - term, due to high production capacity, the supply pressure remains high, and the price increase is difficult. The inter - monthly spread of the futures market is expected to move downward [4][6]. Summary by Relevant Content Spot Price - Today, the spot prices in various regions showed different degrees of change. For example, the price in Henan increased from 13.91 to 14.13, and in Anhui it rose from 14.00 to 14.24. The average price remained unchanged at 13.74 [4]. Futures Price - Futures prices generally showed an upward trend. For example, LH07 increased from 13070 to 13225, and LH09 rose from 13475 to 13595 [4]. Sow/Piglet Price - Piglet prices decreased from 481 to 465, and sow prices dropped from 1626 to 1621 [4]. Spot Breeding Profit - The self - breeding and self - raising profit decreased from 35.65 to 33.83, and the profit from purchasing piglets decreased from - 84.37 to - 120.80 [4]. Slaughter End - The slaughter volume decreased from 142829 to 141441 [4]. Size Pig Price Difference - The price difference between standard pigs and medium - sized pigs increased from 0.29 to 0.31, while the price difference between large pigs and standard pigs decreased from 0.08 to 0.05 [4]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Mainly in a volatile operation - Arbitrage: LH79 reverse spread - Options: Sell a wide - straddle strategy [7]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily discuss the **pig farming industry** and the **pork market** dynamics in China, focusing on supply, demand, and pricing trends. Key Points and Arguments Short-term Price Trends - Short-term support for pig prices is expected from fattening or secondary fattening, but supply release will lead to prices hitting a new low again. Post-Duanwu Festival, a supply-demand mismatch may cause price declines in July and August [1][3] - The market is currently in a wait-and-see phase, with supply-demand ratios needing to find new equilibrium points, potentially around June 4 or June 5 [3] Medium-term Outlook - Medium-term expectations indicate that weight reduction and decreased fattening stock will alleviate supply-demand pressure, coupled with the upcoming consumption peak, leading to a potential price increase [1][3] - The number of breeding sows is showing a downward trend, with an increase in the number of sows being culled, reflecting market pessimism regarding pig prices for the second half of the year and next year [1][5] Long-term Projections - Long-term projections suggest a marginal decrease in production capacity by 2026 due to policy factors and insufficient future expectations from large-scale farms [1][10] - The overall market sentiment is pessimistic, with expectations of reduced production capacity driven by government measures to cut capacity [10] Slaughtering Trends - In 2025, slaughtering volumes exceeded expectations, with leading slaughterhouses seeing over a 30% year-on-year increase, attributed to improved product capabilities and concentrated farming structures [2][7] - The decline in slaughtering volumes from small-scale butchers and regional meat processing plants indicates a clear trend towards slaughtering centralization [2][7] Supply Chain Dynamics - The proportion of social pig sources received by slaughterhouses is low due to large output from farming companies and a cautious stance from farmers regarding future price expectations [3][4] - The current supply pressure remains significant, with the average weight of pigs being adjusted downwards, but the overall supply structure still shows high levels of stock [8][9] Factors Influencing Pork Prices - Key factors affecting medium to long-term pork price predictions include the transfer of stock structure, seasonal demand, and policy influences [6][10] - The second quarter's piglet numbers are insufficient to meet the supply demands for December and January, necessitating adjustments in stock and weight to compensate for seasonal demand [6][10] Market Behavior - The behavior of various market participants, including large farming companies and individual farmers, is influencing overall market trends, with large companies dominating sales channels while individual farmers reduce their output [4][5] Additional Important Insights - The current high culling rate of sows, approximately 5% in June, reflects market expectations and production cost management [10] - The overall market is characterized by a high stock rate and low turnover, limiting the space for replenishing piglets, which is a significant factor in the ongoing decline of piglet prices [10]