生猪存栏政策

Search documents
蛋白数据日报-20250811
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-08-11 07:07
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The CBOT currently has no weather premium, and the Sino-US trade policy has not eased, putting pressure on US soybeans, but the downside space is expected to be limited. Under the current Sino-US policy, the Brazilian premium is expected to be strong, and with the expected increase in import costs, the 01 contract is expected to fluctuate strongly. Attention should be paid to the results of the August USDA supply and demand report and the situation of domestic Argentine soybean meal imports [7][8] 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Supply - This week, the good-to-excellent rate of US soybeans dropped to 69%, still at a high level, and the weather in the producing areas will be normal in the next two weeks. Under the pressure of the concentrated arrival of Brazilian soybeans, the domestic soybean pressure drop in August is expected to exceed 10 million tons, and soybean meal is expected to continue to accumulate inventory; the purchase of ships from October to January is progressing slowly, and there is an expectation of inventory reduction in the far month under the current Sino-US trade policy [7] Demand - In the short term, the high inventory of pigs and poultry is expected to be maintained, supporting the demand for feed. However, the policy is oriented to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which is expected to affect the far-month supply of pigs. The cost-effectiveness of soybean meal is relatively high, and the pick-up volume is at a high level. Some areas use wheat to replace corn, reducing the amount of protein used. The far-month trading volume of soybean meal increased this week [8] Inventory - The domestic soybean inventory has increased to a high level; the inventory accumulation speed of soybean meal has slowed down but is still in the inventory accumulation cycle; the inventory days of soybean meal in feed enterprises have decreased [8]